Made on
Jul 31, 2026
Price at call
$5.14
6-month call
Bull +47.9%
Target by Jan 2027
$7.60
Great value below
$6.50
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+47.9% to $7.60
Predicted High
$7.60
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$5.45
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 31, 2026 2:06 am
Bull
VRRM trends higher to
$7.60
(+47.9% from $5.14)
by Jan 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisVRRM has crashed 74% in six months and trades far below fair value anchors, but quality is weak and the tape is neutral. A fresh Avis contract reset provides near-term relief that lifts the stock modestly, then value gravity does slow work over months while sentiment on the fallen-angel story stabilizes.
Invalidated ifA break below $4.50 on further contract losses or guidance cut, or failure to reclaim $6 within two months, would invalidate the recovery path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $5.14 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 31, 2026 | — | $5.14 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 14, 2026 | $2.53–$7.75 typical range · internal point $5.45 | — | ±50.7% | 6/10 | Avis reset relief bounce off oversold levels |
| What actually happened: closed $4.81 on Aug 13, 2026 = -6.4% vs the call (predicted +6.0%) · direction MISS (called up, was down) · off by 12.5 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±50.7%: inside the band · S&P +4.1% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 31, 2026 | $1.36–$8.92 typical range · internal point $5.70 | — | ±73.5% | 5/10 | Short-covering and sentiment repair continue modestly |
| 2 months | Oct 1, 2026 | $6.10 | — | +18.7% | 5/10 | Value buyers accumulate below $6.50 threshold |
| 3 months | Oct 31, 2026 | $6.40 | — | +24.5% | 4/10 | Q3 print potential; beat history supports drift up |
| 4 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $6.80 | — | +32.3% | 4/10 | Value gravity toward anchored-PE fair value |
| 5 months | Dec 31, 2026 | $7.20 | — | +40.1% | 3/10 | Year-end positioning, tax-loss selling fades |
| 6 months | Jan 31, 2027 | $7.60 | — | +47.9% | 3/10 | Convergence toward deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $7.94 (+54.4%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $5.14 |
| Composite fair value | $17.77 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $18.99 |
| DCF fair value | $27.10 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $7.86 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $6.50 |
| Value net score | +24 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -21 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 81.8% 3m 254.7% 6m 182.6% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 16.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -2.49 3m -0.58 5m 0.05 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -74.1% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | VRRM-20260730-194009-8092 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-VRRM-20260730-222113-0fec |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-VRRM-20260730-222113-0fec |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-VRRM-20260730-222113-0fec |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-VRRM-20260730-222113-0fec |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | VRRM-20260730-215444-e8a9 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | VRRM-20260730-215444-e8a9 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $5.14 | $7.60 | +47.9% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.