Made on
Aug 4, 2026
Price at call
$47.36
6-month call
Bull +11.7%
Target by Feb 2027
$52.90
Great value below
$44.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+11.7% to $52.90
Predicted High
$52.90
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$47.55
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 4, 2026 1:15 am
Bull
VZ trends higher to
$52.90
(+11.7% from $47.36)
by Feb 2027.
flat-then-break
ThesisVZ is a low-beta defensive with material upside to composite fair value ($60+), but sentiment is neutral-to-negative and the risk-on regime mutes defensives near-term. Expect a slow grind higher as value gravity works, with modest early drift and stronger convergence into year-end as dividend capture and rate expectations help.
Invalidated ifBreak below $44 on FWA subscriber miss or dividend concern; or failure to reclaim $49 by October signals value trap.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $47.36 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 4, 2026 | — | $47.36 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 18, 2026 | $44.73–$49.99 typical range · internal point $47.55 | — | ±5.5% | 7/10 | Low-beta drift, no catalyst, tight range near spot |
| What actually happened: closed $48.06 on Aug 17, 2026 = +1.5% vs the call (predicted +0.4%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.1 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±5.5%: inside the band · S&P +0.6% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 4, 2026 | $43.55–$51.17 typical range · internal point $47.90 | — | ±8.0% | 6/10 | Defensive muted by risk-on tape, slow drift |
| 2 months | Oct 4, 2026 | $48.80 | — | +3.0% | 5/10 | Q3 print approaches, EPS beat streak supports bid |
| 3 months | Nov 4, 2026 | $50.20 | — | +6.0% | 5/10 | Earnings beat plus dividend capture lifts shares |
| 4 months | Dec 4, 2026 | $51.40 | — | +8.5% | 5/10 | Value convergence, yield appeal into year-end |
| 5 months | Jan 4, 2027 | $52.30 | — | +10.4% | 4/10 | January rotation into defensives, rate tailwind |
| 6 months | Feb 4, 2027 | $52.90 | — | +11.7% | 4/10 | Grind toward baseline, gap to fair value persists |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $52.77 (+11.4%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 2 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $47.36 |
| Composite fair value | $60.39 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $61.05 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $44.00 |
| Value net score | +25 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +23 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 27.5% 3m 27.8% 6m 25.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.8% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.06 3m -0.48 5m -0.34 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 6.4% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | VZ-20260804-000624-1436 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-VZ-20260804-005941-d12f |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-VZ-20260804-005941-d12f |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-VZ-20260804-005941-d12f |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-VZ-20260804-005941-d12f |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | VZ-20260804-000624-1436 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $47.36 | $52.90 | +11.7% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 27, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Neutral | $46.54 | $47.43 | +1.9% | Dec 2026 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.