Made on
Aug 23, 2026
Price at call
$200.01
6-month call
Bear -19.0%
Target by Feb 2027
$162.00
Great value below
$155.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-19.0% to $162.00
Predicted High
$212.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$162.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-19.0%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 23, 2026 1:05 pm
Bear
WDAY trends lower to
$162.00
(-19.0% from $200.01)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisWDAY is riding a Silver Lake buyout rumor and AI narrative refresh into a print window, likely spiking near-term before valuation gravity pulls it toward the ~$150 fair-value zone as the deal chatter fades and post-earnings reality sets in.
Invalidated ifConfirmed Silver Lake bid above $220 sustains price; alternatively, rumor denial dropping stock below $175 within two weeks invalidates the euphoric leg.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $200.01 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 23, 2026 | — | $200.01 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 6, 2026 | $171.76–$228.26 typical range · internal point $208.50 | — | ±14.1% | 7/10 | Buyout rumor and AI hype sustain bid pre-print |
| 1 month | Sep 23, 2026 | $159.07–$240.95 typical range · internal point $212.00 | — | ±20.5% | 6/10 | Earnings beat likely; momentum peaks near event |
| 2 months | Oct 23, 2026 | $198.00 | — | -1.0% | 5/10 | Post-print digestion; rumor half-life shortens |
| 3 months | Nov 23, 2026 | $185.00 | — | -7.5% | 5/10 | Valuation gravity begins as narrative cools |
| 4 months | Dec 23, 2026 | $175.00 | — | -12.5% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning; fair-value pull intensifies |
| 5 months | Jan 23, 2027 | $168.00 | — | -16.0% | 4/10 | DCF anchor near $170 exerts influence |
| 6 months | Feb 23, 2027 | $162.00 | — | -19.0% | 4/10 | Convergence toward composite fair value zone |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $191.59 (-4.2%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $200.01 |
| Composite fair value | $119.48 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $120.03 |
| DCF fair value | $169.65 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $155.00 |
| Value net score | -67 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +28 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 79.4% 3m 70.9% 6m 63.6% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 4.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.53 3m 0.31 5m -0.18 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 45.1% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | WDAY-20260822-145304-90ca |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-WDAY-20260822-150925-34ed |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-WDAY-20260822-150925-34ed |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-WDAY-20260822-150925-34ed |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-WDAY-20260822-150925-34ed |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 23, 2026 | freshest | WDAY-20260822-145304-90ca |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 23, 2026 | freshest | WDAY-20260822-145304-90ca |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $200.01 | $162.00 | -19.0% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.