Made on
Aug 4, 2026
Price at call
$527.22
6-month call
Bear -20.3%
Target by Feb 2027
$420.00
Great value below
$300.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-20.3% to $420.00
Predicted High
$555.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$420.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-20.3%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 4, 2026 1:18 am
Bear
WDC trends lower to
$420.00
(-20.3% from $527.22)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisWDC has ripped 111% in six months on the AI-storage narrative with beta ~4 and a risk-on tape, but value and quality lenses are deeply negative with fair value likely well below current. Expect momentum to carry near-term into fall, then gravity and profit-taking to bleed the price through winter as the narrative matures.
Invalidated ifA sustained break above $600 on heavy volume or a blowout AI-storage capex cycle print would invalidate the fade; conversely a regime flip to risk-off would accelerate it.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $527.22 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 4, 2026 | — | $527.22 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 18, 2026 | $426.00–$628.44 typical range · internal point $540.00 | — | ±19.2% | 6/10 | momentum and risk-on regime carry high-beta name higher |
| What actually happened: closed $536.01 on Aug 17, 2026 = +1.7% vs the call (predicted +2.4%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.8 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±19.2%: inside the band · S&P +0.6% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 4, 2026 | $380.54–$673.90 typical range · internal point $555.00 | — | ±27.8% | 5/10 | AI-storage narrative peaks into September flows |
| 2 months | Oct 4, 2026 | $530.00 | — | +0.5% | 4/10 | first signs of exhaustion, profit-taking begins |
| 3 months | Nov 4, 2026 | $495.00 | — | -6.1% | 4/10 | value gravity asserts, no earnings catalyst |
| 4 months | Dec 4, 2026 | $460.00 | — | -12.7% | 4/10 | year-end tax-loss avoidance absent, momentum unwinds |
| 5 months | Jan 4, 2027 | $440.00 | — | -16.5% | 3/10 | January reset, quality concerns resurface |
| 6 months | Feb 4, 2027 | $420.00 | — | -20.3% | 3/10 | continued mean reversion toward fair-value zone |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $0.00 (+0.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 7 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
No usable fair-value anchor — brain-only (anchorless) mode: no v0.3 control line, prediction reasons from lenses/sentiment/regime/price behaviour.
-
Note
Traditional FCF-based DCF produces misleading results — company reinvests aggressively
-
Note
EPV is meaningless — the entire value proposition is future growth/optionality
-
Note
PE-based peer comparisons may fail — market values this outside its nominal industry
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: composite_fair_value.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: signal_adjusted.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $527.22 |
| Composite fair value | — |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | — |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | — |
| Value net score | -86 |
| Value confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -29 |
| Memo confidence | — / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 100.6% 3m 96.4% 6m 85.3% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 6.1% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 4.14 3m 3.91 5m 3.37 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 110.7% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#8eb3df85c300 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | WDC-20260804-000624-4efc |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-WDC-20260804-005942-b078 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-WDC-20260804-005942-b078 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-WDC-20260804-005942-b078 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-WDC-20260804-005942-b078 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | WDC-20260804-000624-4efc |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | WDC-20260804-000624-4efc |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $527.22 | $420.00 | -20.3% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.