Made on
Sep 19, 2026
Price at call
$441.44
6-month call
Bear -28.6%
Target by Mar 2027
$315.00
Great value below
$90.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-28.6% to $315.00
Predicted High
$432.00
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$315.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-28.6%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Sep 19, 2026 1:06 pm
Bear
WDC trends lower to
$315.00
(-28.6% from $441.44)
by Mar 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisWDC is extended far above any reasonable fair value with a cracking AI-storage narrative, high beta, and risk-off sentiment; near-term momentum keeps it elevated but value gravity and sentiment drag pull it materially lower over the six-month window, though nowhere near the $52 deterministic anchor.
Invalidated ifA break and hold above $480 on renewed AI-storage upgrades, or regime flipping decisively risk-on, would invalidate the fade thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $441.44 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Sep 19, 2026 | — | $441.44 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Oct 3, 2026 | $361.66–$521.22 typical range · internal point $432.00 | — | ±18.1% | 6/10 | High beta into risk-off tape, mild drift lower |
| What actually happened: closed $415.12 on Oct 2, 2026 = -6.0% vs the call (predicted -2.1%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 3.8 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±18.1%: inside the band · S&P +0.9% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Oct 19, 2026 | $325.82–$557.06 typical range · internal point $415.00 | — | ±26.2% | 6/10 | Sentiment cracks accelerate, no catalyst to defend |
| 2 months | Nov 19, 2026 | $388.00 | — | -12.1% | 5/10 | Narrative de-rating continues, momentum unwinds |
| 3 months | Dec 19, 2026 | $365.00 | — | -17.3% | 5/10 | Year-end de-risking on extended AI names |
| 4 months | Jan 19, 2027 | $345.00 | — | -21.8% | 4/10 | January reset, valuation gravity intensifies |
| 5 months | Feb 19, 2027 | $330.00 | — | -25.2% | 4/10 | Earnings window pressures overextended multiple |
| 6 months | Mar 19, 2027 | $315.00 | — | -28.6% | 4/10 | Path converges toward deterministic drift, still above fair value |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $287.40 (-34.9%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 2 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] Cash flow quality is poor — reported earnings may not reflect reality
-
Degraded
[critical] Revenue is volatile and unreliable — growth projections are speculative
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $441.44 |
| Composite fair value | $52.51 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $51.62 |
| DCF fair value | $58.61 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $90.00 |
| Value net score | -88 |
| Value confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -28 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 48.2% 3m 90.7% 6m 84.3% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 5.7% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.01 3m 2.82 5m 3.02 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 39.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Sep 6, 2026 | 12d behind | WDC-20260804-000624-4efc |
ext-forensic-memo |
Sep 17, 2026 | 1d behind | ext-WDC-20260917-172656-f380 |
ext-lens-quality |
Sep 17, 2026 | 1d behind | ext-WDC-20260917-172656-f380 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Sep 17, 2026 | 1d behind | ext-WDC-20260917-172656-f380 |
ext-lens-value |
Sep 17, 2026 | 1d behind | ext-WDC-20260917-172656-f380 |
scenario-valuation |
Sep 19, 2026 | freshest | WDC-20260804-000624-4efc |
valuation-synthesis |
Sep 19, 2026 | freshest | WDC-20260804-000624-4efc |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $441.44 | $315.00 | -28.6% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
| Aug 4, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $527.22 | $420.00 | -20.3% | Feb 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.