Made on
Aug 2, 2026
Price at call
$86.45
6-month call
Bear -5.7%
Target by Feb 2027
$81.50
Great value below
$72.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-5.7% to $81.50
Predicted High
$86.20
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$81.50
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-5.7%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 2, 2026 12:45 am
Bear
WFC trends lower to
$81.50
(-5.7% from $86.45)
by Feb 2027.
decay
ThesisWFC trades above composite fair value ($76.69) with mildly negative value/sentiment lens but stable quality and low beta. Absent a catalyst, expect gentle mean-reversion drift toward the $80-82 zone over six months, with early stickiness near current levels given neutral regime and low volatility.
Invalidated ifBreak above $92 on strong tape or below $78 on credit/macro shock would falsify the slow-drift-lower thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $86.45 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 2, 2026 | — | $86.45 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 16, 2026 | $81.88–$91.02 typical range · internal point $86.20 | — | ±5.3% | 7/10 | Low-vol drift, neutral regime, no catalyst near-term |
| What actually happened: closed $88.82 on Aug 14, 2026 = +2.7% vs the call (predicted -0.3%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 3.0 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±5.3%: inside the band · S&P +4.7% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 2, 2026 | $79.83–$93.07 typical range · internal point $85.60 | — | ±7.7% | 6/10 | Slight fade as fair-value gravity begins |
| 2 months | Oct 2, 2026 | $84.80 | — | -1.9% | 5/10 | Q3 print potential, mild valuation pressure |
| 3 months | Nov 2, 2026 | $83.90 | — | -2.9% | 5/10 | Continued reversion toward signal-adjusted $79 |
| 4 months | Dec 2, 2026 | $83.00 | — | -4.0% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, tax-loss modest headwind |
| 5 months | Jan 2, 2027 | $82.20 | — | -4.9% | 4/10 | January reset, value lens continues to pull |
| 6 months | Feb 2, 2027 | $81.50 | — | -5.7% | 4/10 | Converging toward composite fair value zone |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $85.55 (-1.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $86.45 |
| Composite fair value | $76.69 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $79.14 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $76.69 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $72.00 |
| Value net score | -68 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +32 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 25.0% 3m 26.5% 6m 28.6% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.7% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.27 3m 0.26 5m 0.47 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -4.6% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 2, 2026 | freshest | WFC-20260802-000311-87a1 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-WFC-20260802-002813-46fe |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-WFC-20260802-002813-46fe |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-WFC-20260802-002813-46fe |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 2, 2026 | freshest | ext-WFC-20260802-002813-46fe |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 2, 2026 | freshest | WFC-20260802-000311-87a1 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 2, 2026 | freshest | WFC-20260802-000311-87a1 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $86.45 | $81.50 | -5.7% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 26, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Neutral | $84.75 | $85.67 | +1.1% | Dec 2026 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.