Made on
Jul 30, 2026
Price at call
$114.22
6-month call
Bear -8.2%
Target by Jan 2027
$104.80
Great value below
$95.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-8.2% to $104.80
Predicted High
$113.40
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$104.80
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-8.2%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 30, 2026 1:10 am
Bear
WMT trends lower to
$104.80
(-8.2% from $114.22)
by Jan 2027.
decay
ThesisWMT is materially above composite fair value ($97) with a negative value lens, but quality is elite and beta is negative in a stress regime, making it a defensive port. Expect modest mean-reversion pressure over the window as multiple compresses toward $100-105, partially offset by defensive bid during macro stress.
Invalidated ifA rally above $122 on a broad risk-on rotation, or a beat-and-raise print, would falsify the drift-lower thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $114.22 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 30, 2026 | — | $114.22 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 13, 2026 | $107.99–$120.45 typical range · internal point $113.40 | — | ±5.5% | 6/10 | Stress regime supports low-beta defensive near-term |
| What actually happened: closed $116.01 on Aug 12, 2026 = +1.6% vs the call (predicted -0.7%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 2.3 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±5.5%: inside the band · S&P +4.2% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 30, 2026 | $105.19–$123.25 typical range · internal point $112.10 | — | ±7.9% | 5/10 | Slow drift as no catalyst, valuation heavy |
| What actually happened: closed $103.09 on Aug 28, 2026 = -9.7% vs the call (predicted -1.9%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 7.9 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±7.9%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +3.7% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Sep 30, 2026 | $110.50 | — | -3.3% | 5/10 | Q3 print approaches, positioning trims premium |
| What actually happened: closed $106.80 on Sep 29, 2026 = -6.5% vs the call (predicted -3.3%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 3.2 pp · accuracy 4/10 · S&P +3.1% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 3 months | Oct 30, 2026 | $108.75 | — | -4.8% | 4/10 | Post-earnings digestion, gravity toward fair value |
| 4 months | Nov 30, 2026 | $107.50 | — | -5.9% | 4/10 | Holiday season hopes cushion but multiple compresses |
| 5 months | Dec 30, 2026 | $106.00 | — | -7.2% | 3/10 | Year-end tax and rotation from defensives |
| 6 months | Jan 30, 2027 | $104.80 | — | -8.2% | 3/10 | Continued convergence toward $97 fair value anchor |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $114.41 (+0.2%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 2 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $114.22 |
| Composite fair value | $97.13 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $97.13 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $95.00 |
| Value net score | -69 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +93 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 25.5% 3m 27.4% 6m 27.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.7% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.50 3m -0.35 5m 0.01 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -2.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | WMT-20260730-001020-399b |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-WMT-20260730-005820-ee03 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-WMT-20260730-005820-ee03 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-WMT-20260730-005820-ee03 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-WMT-20260730-005820-ee03 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | WMT-20260730-001020-399b |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | WMT-20260730-001020-399b |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $114.22 | $104.80 | -8.2% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 22, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Neutral | $117.18 | $116.68 | -0.4% | Dec 2026 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.