Made on
Aug 30, 2026
Price at call
$235.09
6-month call
Bear -9.0%
Target by Mar 2027
$214.00
Great value below
$165.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-9.0% to $214.00
Predicted High
$242.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$214.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-9.0%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 30, 2026 1:01 pm
Bear
WSM trends lower to
$214.00
(-9.0% from $235.09)
by Mar 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisPost-earnings momentum and analyst upgrades in a risk-on tape keep WSM firm to slightly higher near-term, but stretched valuation (fair value ~$95, DCF ~$106) exerts gradual gravity as the sentiment tailwind fades over the multi-month horizon, pulling the stock modestly lower toward the deterministic baseline.
Invalidated ifA decisive break above $255 on continued upgrades, or a break below $215 that confirms momentum failure, would invalidate this fade path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $235.09 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 30, 2026 | — | $235.09 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 13, 2026 | $220.27–$249.91 typical range · internal point $240.50 | — | ±6.3% | 7/10 | Post-earnings momentum and upgrades extend near-term |
| What actually happened: closed $226.23 on Sep 11, 2026 = -3.8% vs the call (predicted +2.3%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 6.1 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±6.3%: inside the band · S&P -0.7% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 30, 2026 | $213.62–$256.56 typical range · internal point $242.00 | — | ±9.1% | 6/10 | Risk-on tape supports drift higher, no catalyst |
| What actually happened: closed $229.96 on Sep 29, 2026 = -2.2% vs the call (predicted +2.9%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 5.1 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±9.1%: inside the band · S&P -0.5% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 30, 2026 | $237.00 | — | +0.8% | 5/10 | Momentum cools, valuation concerns creep in |
| 3 months | Nov 30, 2026 | $230.00 | — | -2.2% | 5/10 | Pre-earnings positioning, holiday retail scrutiny |
| 4 months | Dec 30, 2026 | $225.00 | — | -4.3% | 4/10 | Value gravity accumulates against premium multiple |
| 5 months | Jan 30, 2027 | $220.00 | — | -6.4% | 4/10 | January reset, guidance normalization pressures shares |
| 6 months | Mar 2, 2027 | $214.00 | — | -9.0% | 4/10 | Fade toward deterministic baseline as sentiment dissolves |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $213.14 (-9.3%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $235.09 |
| Composite fair value | $95.44 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $85.16 |
| DCF fair value | $106.00 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $165.00 |
| Value net score | -70 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +54 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 27.9% 3m 31.6% 6m 33.1% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.74 3m 0.91 5m 1.07 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 14.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 30, 2026 | freshest | WSM-20260830-023001-e3a4 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-WSM-20260830-024835-a3d7 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-WSM-20260830-024835-a3d7 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-WSM-20260830-024835-a3d7 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-WSM-20260830-024835-a3d7 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 30, 2026 | freshest | WSM-20260830-023001-e3a4 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 30, 2026 | freshest | WSM-20260830-023001-e3a4 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 30, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $235.09 | $214.00 | -9.0% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.