Made on
Jul 30, 2026
Price at call
$156.75
6-month call
Bear -10.7%
Target by Jan 2027
$140.00
Great value below
$132.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-10.7% to $140.00
Predicted High
$161.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$140.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-10.7%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 30, 2026 1:08 am
Bear
XOM trends lower to
$140.00
(-10.7% from $156.75)
by Jan 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisXOM is riding a Middle East shock and pro-energy political narrative that has decoupled it from the broad tape (beta -1 in stress regime). Sentiment and momentum carry it modestly higher near-term, but weak value (attractive only below $132) and mean reversion pull it back toward fair value over the 6-month window.
Invalidated ifA ceasefire or oil price collapse below $65 that removes the geopolitical premium, or XOM breaking above $170 on sustained flows would invalidate the fade.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $156.75 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 30, 2026 | — | $156.75 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 13, 2026 | $147.76–$165.74 typical range · internal point $159.50 | — | ±5.7% | 7/10 | Geopolitical bid and negative beta in stress regime persist |
| What actually happened: closed $159.75 on Aug 12, 2026 = +1.9% vs the call (predicted +1.8%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.2 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±5.7%: inside the band · S&P +4.2% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 30, 2026 | $143.72–$169.78 typical range · internal point $161.00 | — | ±8.3% | 6/10 | Sentiment momentum extends, no earnings catalyst |
| 2 months | Sep 30, 2026 | $158.00 | — | +0.8% | 5/10 | Q3 print approaches, narrative premium starts fading |
| 3 months | Oct 30, 2026 | $152.00 | — | -3.0% | 5/10 | Value gravity pulls toward $132 attractive zone |
| 4 months | Nov 30, 2026 | $146.00 | — | -6.9% | 4/10 | Regime normalization erodes safe-haven energy bid |
| 5 months | Dec 30, 2026 | $142.00 | — | -9.4% | 4/10 | Mean reversion continues toward fair-value band |
| 6 months | Jan 30, 2027 | $140.00 | — | -10.7% | 3/10 | Settles above attractive threshold, quality supports floor |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $0.00 (+0.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 4 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
No usable fair-value anchor — brain-only (anchorless) mode: no v0.3 control line, prediction reasons from lenses/sentiment/regime/price behaviour.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: composite_fair_value.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: signal_adjusted.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $156.75 |
| Composite fair value | — |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | — |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | — |
| Value net score | -32 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +59 |
| Memo confidence | — / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 24.9% 3m 28.8% 6m 29.3% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.8% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -1.20 3m -1.00 5m -0.96 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 14.6% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#8eb3df85c300 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | XOM-20260730-001020-d68b |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-XOM-20260730-005820-ba2f |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-XOM-20260730-005820-ba2f |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-XOM-20260730-005820-ba2f |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-XOM-20260730-005820-ba2f |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | XOM-20260730-001020-d68b |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | XOM-20260730-001020-d68b |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $156.75 | $140.00 | -10.7% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 8, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bear | $141.65 | $116.67 | -17.6% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.