Business Description
Samsara Inc. provides solutions that connect physical operations data to its Connected Operations Cloud in the United States and internationally. The company's Connected Operations Cloud includes Data Platform, which ingests, aggregates, and enriches data from its IoT devices and has embedded capabilities for AI, workflows and analytics, alerts, API connections, and data security and privacy; and applications for video-based safety, vehicle telematics, apps and driver workflows, equipment monitoring, and site visibility. It serves customers across a range of industries, including transportation and logistics, construction, field services, utilities and energy, government, healthcare and education, manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, and food and beverage. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is based in San Francisco, California.
Business History
Generated: Jun 1, 2026 6:46pmPrice Overview
Last updated: Jun 1, 2026 6:43pm (25d ago)Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): -0.02
Total Equity: $1.42B
Shares: 573,483,155
Total Debt: $12.57M
Cash: $318.79M
EBITDA: -$28.53M
Total Debt: $12.57M
Cash: $318.79M
Revenue: $1.62B
Shares: 573,483,155
Revenue: $1.62B
Revenue: $1.62B
Revenue: $1.62B
Total Equity: $1.42B
Tax Rate: 1,106.3%
Equity: $1.42B
Total Debt: $12.57M
Cash: $318.79M
Current Liabilities: $917.04M
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $12.57M
Total Equity: $1.42B
Shares: 573,483,155
Shares: 573,483,155
CapEx: -$28.77M
Shares: 573,483,155
Stock Price: $38.55
Net Income: -$9.12M
Industry Benchmarks
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · three lenses
The headline trajectory is genuinely impressive: revenue $428M→$1.62B in four years, gross margin expanding 70.9%→76.7%, operating margin from -82% to -3%, and FCF flipping from -$191M to +$207M. Altman Z of 11.8 and net cash of $821M mean there is zero survival risk. Earnings-quality mechanical checks are clean (Beneish -2.59, no accrual red flags). This is a real business with a real inflection — the bull case is not fictional.
The catch is in the capital structure and cost of that growth. SBC is 19.5% of revenue (~$316M), which is LARGER than the entire $207M of FCF — strip out the non-cash comp the market is told to ignore, and 'true' FCF is meaningfully negative. Diluted share count has gone 505M→573M (a 13.5% increase in four years, 3.2% CAGR) with $0 in buybacks offsetting it. At a $22B market cap on $1.62B revenue (~13.6x sales) with growth decelerating from 53%→43%→33%→30%, you are paying a premium multiple for a company whose per-share economics are quietly being diluted ~3%/yr.
The insider tape confirms the read: 88 sales / 0 buys / $62M sold in 12 months, with co-founder/CTO John Bicket and Sanjit Biswas (also a co-founder) both selling clusters in late May 2026 right alongside an executive equity award. This is not 10b5-1 noise; it's the people who know the business best converting paper at $30+ into cash. Combined with the GPT pipeline's fair-value range of $32-36 vs. spot $37.35, the asymmetry is not in the buyer's favor here.
Deep Analysis
Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 1, 2026 6:50pm (25d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $428.3M | $652.5M | $937.4M | $1.2B | $1.6B |
| Cost of Revenue | $124.5M | $182.7M | $247.0M | $298.3M | $376.5M |
| Gross Profit | $303.9M | $469.9M | $690.4M | $950.9M | $1.2B |
| Operating Expenses | $656.2M | $728.3M | $940.3M | $1.1B | $1.3B |
| Operating Income | -$352.3M | -$258.4M | -$249.9M | -$190.0M | -$52.6M |
| Net Income | -$355.0M | -$247.4M | -$286.7M | -$154.9M | -$9.1M |
| EBITDA | -$304.4M | -$167.1M | -$171.1M | -$164.4M | -$28.5M |
| EPS | $-0.70 | $-0.48 | $-0.54 | $-0.28 | $-0.02 |
| EPS (Diluted) | — | — | — | — | — |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 1, 2026 6:43pm (25d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $921.2M | $200.7M | $135.5M | $227.6M | $318.8M |
| Total Current Assets | $1.1B | $957.5M | $887.0M | $1.1B | $1.5B |
| Total Assets | $1.6B | $1.6B | $1.7B | $2.0B | $2.5B |
| Current Liabilities | $338.3M | $442.2M | $591.8M | $761.3M | $917.0M |
| Long-Term Debt | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Total Liabilities | $579.0M | $679.0M | $819.7M | $955.1M | $1.1B |
| Total Equity | $988.9M | $938.0M | $915.1M | $1.1B | $1.4B |
| Retained Earnings | -$921.0M | -$1.2B | -$1.5B | -$1.6B | -$1.6B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 1, 2026 6:50pm (25d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | -$171.5M | -$103.0M | -$11.8M | $131.7M | $236.2M |
| Capital Expenditure | -$19.4M | -$33.2M | -$11.0M | -$20.2M | -$28.8M |
| Free Cash Flow | -$190.8M | -$136.3M | -$22.8M | $111.5M | $207.4M |
| Acquisitions (net) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Debt Repayment | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | $-5,000 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net Change in Cash | $510.0M | -$720.5M | -$69.0M | $91.1M | $79.0M |
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 1, 2026 6:43pm (25d ago)| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue |
$2.0B $1.9B – $2.0B
|
$2.4B $2.3B – $2.4B
|
$2.8B $2.8B – $2.8B
|
$3.6B $3.5B – $3.6B
|
| EBITDA |
-$511.9M -$514.5M – -$505.9M
|
-$612.7M -$633.5M – -$599.6M
|
-$727.3M -$727.9M – -$726.8M
|
-$927.6M -$945.7M – -$916.8M
|
| Net Income |
$392.4M $366.9M – $417.8M
|
$478.3M $410.0M – $546.7M
|
$642.1M $454.4M – $829.8M
|
$0 |
| EPS | — | — | — | — |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 1, 2026 6:50pm (25d ago)| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +52.3% | +43.7% | +33.3% | +29.6% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +54.6% | +46.9% | +37.7% | +30.6% |
| Operating Income Growth | +26.7% | +3.3% | +24.0% | +72.3% |
| Net Income Growth | +30.3% | -15.9% | +46.0% | +94.1% |
| EBITDA Growth | +45.1% | -2.4% | +3.9% | +82.7% |
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 1, 2026 6:50pm (25d ago)All SEC Form 4 codes
- P Purchase
- Open-market or private purchase of shares.
- S Sale
- Open-market or private sale of shares.
- A Award / grant
- Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
- D Return to issuer
- Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
- F In-kind (tax)
- Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
- I Discretionary
- Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
- M Option exercise
- Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
- C Conversion
- Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
- E Short expiration
- Expiration of a short derivative position.
- H Long expiration
- Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
- O OTM exercise
- Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
- X ITM exercise
- Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
- G Gift
- Bona fide gift of securities.
- L Small acquisition
- Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
- W Inheritance
- Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
- Z Voting trust
- Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
- J Other
- Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
- K Equity swap
- Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
- U Tender / buyout
- Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.
Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | Eltoukhy Adam | S-Sale | 1,614.00 | $32.21 | $51,990 |
| 2026-06-16 | Biswas Sanjit | C-Conversion | 1,540,755.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Biswas Sanjit | C-Conversion | 430,000.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Biswas Sanjit | C-Conversion | 100,000.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Biswas Sanjit | C-Conversion | 1,540,755.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Biswas Sanjit | G-Gift | 230,303.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Biswas Sanjit | C-Conversion | 430,000.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Biswas Sanjit | C-Conversion | 100,000.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Bicket John | C-Conversion | 1,992,669.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Bicket John | C-Conversion | 430,000.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Bicket John | C-Conversion | 100,000.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Bicket John | C-Conversion | 1,992,669.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Bicket John | G-Gift | 230,303.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Bicket John | C-Conversion | 430,000.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Bicket John | C-Conversion | 100,000.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Phillips Dominic | F-InKind | 38,963.00 | $33.66 | $1.3M |
| 2026-06-15 | Kirchhoff Benjamin Louis | F-InKind | 937.00 | $33.66 | $31,539 |
| 2026-06-15 | Kirchhoff Benjamin Louis | S-Sale | 2,549.00 | $33.74 | $86,003 |
| 2026-06-15 | Eltoukhy Adam | F-InKind | 12,133.00 | $33.66 | $408,397 |
| 2026-06-15 | Chadwick Jonathan | S-Sale | 9,500.00 | $33.43 | $317,615 |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
The raw trajectory is genuinely impressive and I want to push back on the "Market Headwinds" framing before touching valuation. Quarterly revenue went $280.7M → $300.2M → $322.0M → $346.3M → $366.9M → $391.5M → $416.0M → $444.3M — eight straight sequential beats, ~7% QoQ compounded, and the YoY comp held at 29.6% even as the base grew 58%. Net income swung from -$56.3M to +$22.0M over the same eight quarters, and the full year flipped to $207.4M FCF on $1.62B revenue (12.8% FCF margin) versus prior-year operating losses of -$190M. Gross margin sits at 76.7%. This is not a company that needs the narrative layer to justify being interesting — the print-by-print fundamentals are doing real work. The "pre_profit_growth" classification with 0.57 confidence already feels stale; this is a just-turned-profitable SaaS compounder.
That said, I disagree with the synthesis's implicit endorsement and side partly with Market Forces on the valuation, though not its mechanics. The "-7.8x accruals" framing is misleading — GAAP NI of -$9.1M against $207.4M FCF is the normal SBC-driven gap for a recently-IPO'd SaaS company, not "accounting-driven earnings." But Market Forces is right about the insider tape: ~250K+ shares sold across May 26-28 with only a single award offsetting is concentrated, planned-or-not, and matches Samsara's documented pattern of heavy executive distribution. At $38.55 the stock trades at ~14x trailing sales and ~106x trailing FCF. For that to work you need revenue to roughly double to $3B+ by FY28 and FCF margins to expand toward 20%+ — achievable, but the recent_revenue_yoy of 29.6% versus the trailing CAGR of 31.4% confirms the "decelerating" tag. Each tick down in the growth rate compresses the multiple non-linearly.
The contrarian case the models underweight: Samsara's moat is narrower than Salesforce/ServiceNow comparisons suggest because the hardware-attach model (cameras, gateways, sensors) is capex for customers and a deflationary cost line for Samsara — it props gross margins today but caps them tomorrow as competitors commoditize the edge device. Microsoft Fleet, Geotab, Motive, and Trimble all credibly attack pieces of the stack, and the customer base skews to trucking/logistics/field services — cyclical end markets currently benefiting from freight recovery hopes that may not materialize. The narrative layer's "platform-monopoly / unanchored" tag is honest: strip the story, mark to 8x sales (still premium to infrastructure SaaS), and you get ~$22/share. Mark to a more generous 11x forward sales on $2.1B FY27 revenue and you get ~$40 — basically here. So the upside requires the narrative to hold AND growth to stay above 25% AND FCF margin to keep expanding. Three conditions, all probable individually, compounding to maybe 40-50% joint probability.
I dissent modestly from the "High Conviction Required" framing — that's a non-verdict. My read: this is a high-quality business at a price that already discounts most of the good news, with fresh insider selling and decelerating growth as the marginal signals. Fair value in a base case is ~$32-36 assuming 25% growth taper and 18% steady-state FCF margin by FY28; bull case $52-58 if 30%+ growth holds two more years; bear case $18-22 if growth breaks to 20% and the multiple compresses to peer-SaaS levels (8-9x sales). Current $38.55 is closer to fair-to-slightly-rich than to a buying opportunity. The Q4 print to watch is whether net new ARR re-accelerates or the deceleration steepens — that's the binary that re-rates this stock either direction. I'd want to own it sub-$30 or after a confirmed growth re-acceleration, not at $38.55 with insiders distributing.
GPT Critique
In examining Samsara Inc.'s financial data independently, the standout is its impressive revenue growth trajectory. The company has consistently increased its quarterly revenue from $280.7M to $444.3M over eight quarters, maintaining a year-over-year growth rate of 29.6%. This growth is accompanied by a significant improvement in net income, swinging from losses of -$56.3M to a profit of $22.0M, suggesting a positive trend towards profitability. Samsara's gross margin of 76.7% supports a strong operational model, and the transition from negative to positive free cash flow is noteworthy, with $207.4M FCF on $1.62B revenue indicating a 12.8% FCF margin. However, the lack of total debt and a substantial cash position of $318.8M gives the company a robust financial cushion, but the absence of equity figures prevents a full balance sheet assessment.
Opus argues that Samsara is "fairly valued to modestly rich at $38.55," pegging fair value at $32-36 and suggesting waiting for a sub-$30 entry point or a growth re-acceleration. I agree with the premise that the current valuation is high relative to the fundamentals, but I diverge slightly on the urgency of the situation. While it's true that revenue growth deceleration is a critical factor, the company's recent transition to profitability and positive cash flow marks a significant milestone that could justify a higher valuation threshold if sustained. Opus mentions concerns about insider selling, interpreting it as a negative signal. I agree that insider selling is a red flag; however, it could also be routine profit-taking given the company's recent performance turnaround.
Opus also notes that the market narrative surrounding Samsara is unanchored, highly dependent on its platform potential and market dominance expectations. While I agree with Opus that the narrative plays a significant role in Samsara's valuation, I believe the company's demonstrated ability to improve margins and generate cash flow lends more weight to its fundamentals than Opus credits. The comparison to Salesforce or ServiceNow may be premature, yet the company's niche in IoT and its expanding product suite could indeed carve out a substantial market position, albeit with competitive pressures.
A careful skeptic might argue that both Opus and I are underestimating the competitive landscape's impact on Samsara's growth prospects. The presence of established players like Microsoft and Amazon, who can leverage their extensive ecosystems, poses a real threat. Additionally, the cyclical nature of Samsara's primary customer base in logistics and field services could introduce volatility not fully accounted for in our analyses. They may also point to the ongoing insider sales and the discrepancy between GAAP net income and FCF as indicators of potential issues beneath the surface.