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FRESH Analysis Report
Jun 24, 2026
3 days ago · 96% complete · +8 refreshed

The Coca-Cola Company

KO NYSE Categories PDF
Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
Atlanta, GA 30313, United States IPO 1962 coca-colacompany.com Updated Jun 23, 9:40pm
Price
$80.31
Market Cap
$345.5B
Employees
65,900
Beta
0.33
Avg Volume
15,566,679
CEO
James Quincey
Business Description

The Coca-Cola Company, a beverage company, manufactures and sells various nonalcoholic beverages in the United States and internationally. The company provides Trademark Coca-Cola, sparkling soft drinks and flavors; water, sports, coffee, and tea; juice, value-added dairy, and plant-based beverages; and emerging beverages. It also offers beverage concentrates and syrups, as well as fountain syrups to fountain retailers comprising restaurants and convenience stores. The company sells its products under the Coca-Cola, Diet Coke/Coca-Cola Light, Coca-Cola Zero Sugar, caffeine free Diet Coke, Cherry Coke, Fanta, Sprite, Simply, Fanta Orange, Fanta Zero Orange, Fanta Zero Sugar, Fanta Apple, Sprite Zero Sugar, Simply Orange, Simply Apple, Simply Grapefruit, Fresca, Schweppes, Thums Up, Aquarius, Ayataka, BODYARMOR, Ciel, Costa, Crystal, Dasani, Fuze Tea, Georgia, glacéau smartwater, glacéau vitaminwater, Gold Peak, I LOHAS, Powerade, Topo Chico, Core Power, Del Valle, fairlife, innocent, Maaza, Minute Maid, Minute Maid Pulpy, Santa Clara, and dogadan brands. It operates through a network of independent bottling partners, distributors, wholesalers, and retailers, as well as through bottling and distribution operators. The Coca-Cola Company was founded in 1886 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

Business History
Generated: Jun 24, 2026 3:03am
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 24, 2026 3:00am (3d ago)
$80.31
+0.78 (+0.98%)
Day Range
$79.83 – $81.33
52-Week Range
$65.35 – $84.04
50-Day MA
$78.95
200-Day MA
$73.76
Volume
12,121,259.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $83.00
Consensus $86.13
High $89.00
(60 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 4,302,482,418.00
Float 3,873,955,169.00
Free Float 90.0%
High free float — 90.0% of shares trade freely, ~10% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 24, 2026 3:06am (3d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 24, 2026 3:03am (3d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 24, 2026 3:01am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
25.22
Stock Price: $80.31
EPS (Diluted): 3.05
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
9.35
Stock Price: $80.31
Total Equity: $32.17B
Shares: 4,313,000,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
19.69
Market Cap: $345.53B
Total Debt: $45.49B
Cash: $10.27B
EBITDA: $18.70B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$336.0B
Market Cap: $345.53B
Total Debt: $45.49B
Cash: $10.27B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
61.6%
Gross Profit: $29.54B
Revenue: $47.94B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
28.7%
Operating Income: $13.76B
Revenue: $47.94B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
27.3%
Net Income: $13.11B
Revenue: $47.94B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
43.6%
Net Income: $13.11B
Total Equity: $32.17B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
13.9%
Operating Income: $13.76B
Tax Rate: 17.9%
Equity: $32.17B
Total Debt: $45.49B
Cash: $10.27B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.46
Current Assets: $31.04B
Current Liabilities: $21.28B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
1.41
Short-Term Debt: $3.37B
Long-Term Debt: $42.12B
Total Debt: $45.49B
Total Equity: $32.17B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$11.12
Revenue: $47.94B
Shares: 4,313,000,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$7.46
Total Equity: $32.17B
Shares: 4,313,000,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$1.23
Operating CF: $7.41B
CapEx: -$2.11B
Shares: 4,313,000,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
2.9%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $80.31
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
—
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $13.11B
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 24, 2026 3:01am
Compares KO against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · three lenses
Three separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-06-24 03:09:48
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality - wait for a dip 8/10
Elite franchise (+56 quality) but priced for perfection at $80 (-77 value) with a defensive tailwind (+74) that argues patience, not chase.
The cruxWhether you're willing to pay a full multiple for certainty here, or wait for a 15-20% pullback to get paid for the quality.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from KO's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionStable Share Count
Earnings QualityGood Earnings Quality
The three lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+56
Strong
edge √Σ 137 · risk √Σ 80 · conf 8/10

KO is a textbook mature compounder: revenue grew from 38.7B in 2021 to 47.9B in 2025 (about 5.5% CAGR) while gross margin expanded from 60.3% to 61.6% and operating margin hit 28.7% in 2025 - exceptional pricing power and brand-driven economics. Net income of 13.1B on 47.9B revenue (27% net margin) confirms the franchise is intact. Earnings quality checks are clean: accruals 0.7% of assets, Beneish M -2.36, Altman Z 5.02 (safe zone), and OCF/NI of 0.95x indicates reported earnings are largely backed by cash. Share count is essentially flat (diluted CAGR -0.2%) with buyback-to-SBC of 420%, so per-share value is being protected rather than eroded - SBC is a trivial 0.6% of revenue. Two things temper the picture. First, leverage: net debt of roughly 31.6B against only 13.9B liquid cash means the balance sheet is a constraint, not a cushion, though 5B+ annual FCF and a Z-score of 5 make solvency a non-issue. Second, FCF quality has deteriorated - FCF collapsed from 11.3B in 2021 to 4.7B in 2024 and only partially recovered to 5.3B in 2025, even as net income hit a record 13.1B. That is a meaningful NI-to-FCF gap (OCF/NI 0.95x but FCF conversion far worse) likely tied to the BodyArmor/fairlife contingent consideration payments and tax/litigation outflows, which warrants scrutiny. Insider tape is uninformative: 19 sales, zero open-market buys, but the recent activity is exercise-and-sell by a non-CEO officer (Mann) - routine for mature large-caps, not a red flag.

Strengths 4
m85
Elite franchise margins expanding
Gross margin rose from 60.3% (2021) to 61.6% (2025); operating margin reached 28.7% and net margin 27% in 2025 - confirms durable pricing power and brand moat.
m70
Clean earnings quality
Accruals just 0.7% of assets, Beneish M -2.36, Altman Z 5.02 (safe), OCF/NI 0.95x - mechanical forensics show no manipulation signals.
m60
Per-share discipline
Diluted shares fell from 4.34B to 4.31B over 5 years; buybacks are 420% of SBC and SBC is only 0.6% of revenue - shareholders are not being diluted.
m55
Consistent top-line compounding
Revenue grew every year from 38.7B to 47.9B (~5.5% CAGR) despite a mature category - pricing plus mix is working globally.
Concerns 4
m60
FCF conversion has deteriorated sharply
FCF fell from 11.3B (2021) to 4.7B (2024) and 5.3B (2025) while net income hit a record 13.1B - FCF/NI of only ~40% is a major divergence worth understanding (likely BodyArmor contingent payments, IRS tax case, litigation).
m45
Net debt position
Net debt of 31.6B vs only 13.9B liquid cash; balance sheet is leveraged, though 5B+ FCF and Z-score 5.02 make this a constraint not a survival issue.
m25
Operating margin volatility in 2024
OpM dipped to 21.2% in 2024 before snapping back to 28.7% in 2025 - suggests one-time charges (likely fairlife contingent consideration) distorting GAAP operating line.
m15
Insider selling only, no buys
19 sells / 0 buys over 12 months, but activity is exercise-and-sell by an officer (Mann) - routine for large-cap, low signal value.
This is a genuinely high-quality business - one of the most durable consumer franchises on earth, with expanding margins, clean accounting, and disciplined share count. The 28.7% operating margin and 27% net margin in 2025 are franchise-grade numbers you simply do not see outside of true moats. What keeps me from calling it Fortress is the balance sheet (31.6B net debt is a real constraint) and, more importantly, the ugly gap between record GAAP earnings and mediocre FCF the last two years - 13.1B of net income converting to only 5.3B of FCF demands an explanation, and the likely culprits (fairlife earnout, IRS case) are real cash items, not accounting noise. Net-net: the operating business is Strong-to-Fortress, the capital structure and cash conversion drag it to Strong. Quality is not in doubt; I just want to see FCF normalize back toward 9-11B.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • Reconcile the NI-to-FCF gap: how much of the 2024-2025 FCF compression is from fairlife contingent consideration payments, IRS tax litigation deposit, or working capital?
  • Status and potential cash exposure of the IRS transfer-pricing case (multi-billion potential liability)
  • Debt maturity ladder and refinancing schedule against the 31.6B net debt position
  • Organic volume growth vs price/mix split - is unit volume actually growing or is revenue purely pricing?
  • Bottler refranchising progress and its impact on margin structure
  • Concentrate vs finished-product mix and exposure to GLP-1 / sugar regulation headwinds
Valuation / Mispricing
-77
Rich
edge √Σ 29 · risk √Σ 106 · conf 7/10
Price $80.31 vs deserved ~$60-70 (anchored-PE $69, composite $50) - roughly 15-30% rich, no margin of safety. attractive below $62.00

The composite fair value of $49 and signal-adjusted FV of $50 imply roughly 38% downside, but those models lean on an EPV floor ($29) that ignores brand-driven pricing power and an anchored-PE of $69 that is closer to a defensible read. Against the $80.31 price, even the most generous internal anchor leaves the stock ~15-17% expensive, and the composite says materially worse. Earnings quality is good, so no haircut is warranted, and the Strong quality grade legitimately lifts deserved value above the raw DCF - but not to $80.

My honest deserved-value range for a fortress consumer staple growing mid-single-digits with 28% operating margins and $31B net debt sits around $60-70. That puts $80 in the 'priced for continued perfection' zone: the market is capitalizing reliable price/mix, EM volume, and dividend compounding with little room for a stumble. There is no margin of safety here; you are paying for certainty, not for mispricing.

Cheap signals 2
m25
Quality justifies premium over DCF
Strong moat and 28.7% op margin support a deserved value above the $49 composite - the gap is real but not as wide as the headline -38% suggests.
m15
EPV floor is unrealistically low
$29 EPV ignores brand-driven reinvestment economics; treat it as a worst-case anchor, not a target.
Rich / priced-in 4
m70
Composite FV well below price
Signal-adjusted FV $50.06 vs $80.31 price implies -38% upside; even discounting EPV as too punitive, the gap is large enough to matter.
m55
Anchored-PE still below market
The most business-friendly internal anchor ($68.69) sits ~14% under the $80 print - the friendliest model in the stack still says rich.
m45
Priced for perfection
A mature beverage business with mid-single-digit growth trading at a premium multiple requires pricing power to keep beating volume softness indefinitely - any EM FX or volume wobble re-rates this lower.
m35
Net debt drag ignored in price
$31.6B net debt is a real claim ahead of equity; deserved equity value should be trimmed for it, yet the market is paying as if the balance sheet were pristine.
Fully valued, bordering on rich. The business is genuinely elite, but $80 already reflects that and then some - I would need this closer to $62-65 to feel I had a margin of safety against a multiple compression or an EM volume scare. Owning it here is a quality-and-yield decision, not a valuation decision. I am not a buyer at this price; I would reevaluate on a 15-20% pullback.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Organic revenue growth split (price/mix vs volume) in next print
  • EM volume trends, especially China and LatAm
  • FX guidance and hedging impact on 2025 EPS
  • FCF recovery vs the soft 2024 print
  • Any change to dividend growth cadence signaling capital allocation strain
General Sentiment
+74
Tailwind
tail √Σ 119 · head √Σ 46 · conf 7/10

The macro tape is mildly negative (VIX 19.5, S&P off 3.2%, 10y at 4.5%) but KO's 0.33 beta means the index pressure barely touches it - and in fact the risk-off undertone is a net positive because it pushes flows toward exactly this archetype: low-beta, dividend-anchored, brand-moat defensives. The news flow reinforces it: Morgan Stanley reaffirmed KO as its top beverage pick, a Zacks top-report nod, and multiple 'defensive anchor' / 'doesn't care about tariffs' pieces are stamping the 'reliability' story onto the name in real time. That is narrative momentum working in KO's favor regardless of DCF math. Analyst tone confirms it - 29 Buys vs 3 Sells, two fresh upward revisions this month to an $86.50 average, target ~7% above spot - and there is no visible divergence between the live narrative and the sell-side. The negatives are minor and idiosyncratic: a Massachusetts plant closure (small) and the $20B IRS appeals hearing (real tail risk, but old news priced in and not currently driving tone). Net: the prevailing pressure on THIS name is upward, even as the broader tape leans neutral-to-soft.

Tailwinds 4
m70
Defensive bid in a wobbly tape
VIX 19.5 and a 3% pullback push flows into low-beta dividend defensives. KO's 0.33 beta and 'fortress' archetype make it a primary beneficiary of any risk-off rotation.
m65
Morgan Stanley top pick + Zacks endorsement
Fresh sell-side reaffirmation as preferred beverage name, plus a featured analyst report this week, are actively reinforcing the safe-compounder narrative right now.
m55
Narrative durability is high, intensity moderate
Steady-compounder story is durable and uncontested - no narrative crack visible. Media is literally writing 'tariffs, chaos - these stocks don't care' pieces with KO as the example.
m45
Analyst revisions trending up
Two upward target revisions this month to $86.50, ~7% above spot, with consensus Buy (29B/3S). Backward-looking but shows tone is not fading.
Headwinds 3
m35
10y at 4.5% pressures bond-proxy multiples
Higher-for-longer rates compete with KO's ~3% yield and cap multiple expansion for dividend names; a slow drag rather than an acute hit.
m25
$20B IRS appeals hearing overhang
Pivotal appeals court date is a binary headline risk that could briefly puncture the 'no drama' narrative if the ruling lands wrong.
m15
Massachusetts plant closure
Minor negative optics around non-carb softness; too small to move sentiment but a faint signal that volume story is not pristine.
Net pressure on KO is positive right now. The tape is soft enough to reward defensives but not so broken that it drags everything down, and KO's 0.33 beta plus the actively-reinforced 'safe compounder' narrative (Morgan Stanley top pick, defensive-anchor media coverage, upward revisions) is exactly the cocktail that pulls marginal flows into this name. The IRS overhang and rate drag are real but neither is currently driving the conversation. I lean tailwind - not euphoric, but a steady non-fundamental bid that other lenses (which may flag the valuation premium) need to weigh against.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Outcome and timing of the $20B IRS appeals court hearing
  • Whether VIX breaks above 22 (accelerates defensive rotation, more tailwind) or collapses below 15 (rotation reverses)
  • Any Buffett / large-holder trim disclosure that would crack the cult-of-safety story
  • Sell-side estimate revisions over the next 4 weeks - are upward revisions broadening or stalling
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
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Three lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), and General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 24, 2026 3:05:25 am

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 24, 2026 3:03am (3d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $38.7B $43.0B $45.8B $47.1B $47.9B
Cost of Revenue $15.4B $18.0B $18.5B $18.3B $18.4B
Gross Profit $23.3B $25.0B $27.2B $28.7B $29.5B
Operating Expenses $13.0B $14.1B $15.9B $18.7B $15.8B
Operating Income $10.3B $10.9B $11.3B $10.0B $13.8B
Net Income $9.8B $9.5B $10.7B $10.6B $13.1B
EBITDA $15.5B $13.8B $15.6B $15.8B $18.7B
EPS $2.26 $2.20 $2.48 $2.47 $3.05
EPS (Diluted) — — — — —
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 24, 2026 3:00am (3d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $9.7B $9.5B $9.4B $10.8B $10.3B
Total Current Assets $22.5B $22.6B $26.7B $26.0B $31.0B
Total Assets $94.4B $92.8B $97.7B $100.5B $104.8B
Current Liabilities $20.0B $19.7B $23.6B $25.2B $21.3B
Long-Term Debt $38.1B $36.4B $35.5B $42.4B $42.1B
Total Liabilities $69.5B $66.9B $70.2B $74.2B $70.5B
Total Equity $23.0B $24.1B $25.9B $24.9B $32.2B
Retained Earnings $69.1B $71.0B $73.8B $76.1B $80.4B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 22, 2026 3:04am (5d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $12.6B $11.0B $11.6B $6.8B $7.4B
Capital Expenditure -$1.4B -$1.5B -$1.9B -$2.1B -$2.1B
Free Cash Flow $11.3B $9.5B $9.7B $4.7B $5.3B
Acquisitions (net) -$2.6B $385.0M $442.0M $3.2B -$461.0M
Debt Repayment — — — — —
Dividends Paid — — — — —
Stock Buybacks -$111.0M -$1.4B -$2.3B -$1.8B -$746.0M
Net Change in Cash $2.9B -$200.0M -$133.0M $1.8B -$478.0M
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 24, 2026 3:00am (3d ago)
Metric 2027 2028 2029 2030
Revenue $49.8B
$48.6B – $53.3B
 $52.5B
$52.4B – $52.6B
 $53.9B
$52.9B – $56.7B
 $56.7B
$55.5B – $59.6B
EBITDA $17.8B
$17.4B – $19.1B
 $18.8B
$18.8B – $18.8B
 $19.3B
$18.9B – $20.3B
 $20.3B
$19.9B – $21.3B
Net Income $15.0B
$14.8B – $15.2B
 $15.5B
$15.1B – $16.8B
 $17.1B
$16.7B – $18.2B
 $18.0B
$17.5B – $19.2B
EPS — — — —
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 24, 2026 3:03am (3d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +11.3% +6.4% +2.9% +1.9%
Gross Profit Growth +7.3% +8.9% +5.5% +2.8%
Operating Income Growth +5.8% +3.7% -11.7% +37.7%
Net Income Growth -2.3% +12.3% -0.8% +23.3%
EBITDA Growth -10.6% +12.9% +1.3% +18.2%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 24, 2026 3:03am (3d ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-06-10 MANN JENNIFER K S-Sale 23,984.00 $83.41 $2.0M
2026-06-09 MANN JENNIFER K M-Exempt 55,154.00 $61.34 $3.4M
2026-06-09 MANN JENNIFER K M-Exempt 18,830.00 $50.44 $949,753
2026-06-09 MANN JENNIFER K S-Sale 55,154.00 $80.75 $4.5M
2026-06-09 MANN JENNIFER K S-Sale 26,016.00 $80.75 $2.1M
2026-06-09 MANN JENNIFER K M-Exempt 18,830.00 $50.44 $949,753
2026-06-09 MANN JENNIFER K M-Exempt 55,154.00 $61.34 $3.4M
2026-06-08 MANN JENNIFER K M-Exempt 51,606.00 $59.49 $3.1M
2026-06-08 MANN JENNIFER K M-Exempt 48,394.00 $50.44 $2.4M
2026-06-08 MANN JENNIFER K S-Sale 51,606.00 $79.46 $4.1M
2026-06-08 MANN JENNIFER K S-Sale 48,394.00 $79.46 $3.8M
2026-06-08 MANN JENNIFER K M-Exempt 48,394.00 $50.44 $2.4M
2026-06-08 MANN JENNIFER K M-Exempt 51,606.00 $59.49 $3.1M
2026-06-05 MANN JENNIFER K M-Exempt 80,820.00 $45.44 $3.7M
2026-06-05 MANN JENNIFER K M-Exempt 19,180.00 $59.49 $1.1M
2026-06-05 MANN JENNIFER K S-Sale 80,820.00 $79.46 $6.4M
2026-06-05 MANN JENNIFER K S-Sale 19,180.00 $79.46 $1.5M
2026-06-05 MANN JENNIFER K M-Exempt 19,180.00 $59.49 $1.1M
2026-06-05 MANN JENNIFER K M-Exempt 80,820.00 $45.44 $3.7M
2026-06-05 Quincey James M-Exempt 436,296.00 $44.48 $19.4M
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 21, 2026 6:33pm (5d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-06-15 $0.53 2026-04-30 2026-06-15 2026-07-01
2026-03-13 $0.53 2026-02-19 2026-03-13 2026-04-01
2025-12-01 $0.51 2025-10-16 2025-12-01 2025-12-15
2025-09-15 $0.51 2025-07-17 2025-09-15 2025-10-01
2025-06-13 $0.51 2025-05-01 2025-06-13 2025-07-01
2025-03-14 $0.51 2025-02-20 2025-03-14 2025-04-01
2024-11-29 $0.49 2024-10-17 2024-11-29 2024-12-16
2024-09-13 $0.49 2024-07-29 2024-09-13 2024-10-01
2024-06-14 $0.49 2024-05-02 2024-06-14 2024-07-01
2024-03-14 $0.49 2024-02-15 2024-03-15 2024-04-01
2023-11-30 $0.46 2023-10-19 2023-12-01 2023-12-15
2023-09-14 $0.46 2023-07-19 2023-09-15 2023-10-02
2023-06-15 $0.46 2023-04-26 2023-06-16 2023-07-03
2023-03-16 $0.46 2023-02-16 2023-03-17 2023-04-03
2022-11-30 $0.44 2022-10-20 2022-12-01 2022-12-15
2022-09-15 $0.44 2022-07-21 2022-09-16 2022-10-03
2022-06-14 $0.44 2022-04-27 2022-06-15 2022-07-01
2022-03-14 $0.44 2022-02-17 2022-03-15 2022-04-01
2021-11-30 $0.42 2021-10-21 2021-12-01 2021-12-15
2021-09-14 $0.42 2021-07-14 2021-09-15 2021-10-01
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for KO — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-24 03:06:02
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict Overvalued but not broken — fair value $62–68 once you normalize post-refranchising margins; the 40% FCF/NI conversion gap is the real bear catalyst, not GLP-1; wait for $65 or a Q-print that exposes the quality-of-earnings issue.

Starting with the raw tape: KO printed $47.94B revenue in 2025 vs $38.66B in 2021 — a 5.5% CAGR, not the 2.4% the momentum module shows (that looks like it's annualizing wrong or using a shorter window). Operating income jumped from $9.99B (2024) to $13.76B (2025), a 38% leap on 1.9% revenue growth. That's the entire bull case in one line — and it's also suspicious. Q1 2026 net margin of 31.5% on $12.47B revenue is the highest in the dataset; Q4 2025 was 19.2%. The seasonal Q4 dip is normal (it's been ~19% two years running), but the 2025 operating margin expansion from 21.2% to 28.7% in a single year on flat volume needs a structural explanation, not a victory lap. Refranchising bottlers mechanically lifts margin while shrinking revenue dollars — that's accounting mix, not pricing power.

FCF tells the uncomfortable story the P&L hides: $5.30B FCF in 2025 against $13.11B reported net income is a 40% conversion ratio for a business that historically converts north of 90%. Operating CF of $7.41B on $13.11B NI means $5.7B of "earnings" didn't show up in cash. Either working capital ballooned, there are non-cash gains (fairlife contingent consideration, divestiture gains, tax items from the IRS dispute), or both. The -26.3% FCF CAGR is the number that matters, and the synthesis model is right to anchor fair value near $50 rather than capitalize peak GAAP earnings at 25x. At $345B market cap on $5.3B FCF, that's a 1.5% FCF yield against a 2.9% dividend — the dividend is being funded partly from the balance sheet, not free cash flow, which is unsustainable arithmetic for a "dividend aristocrat."

I largely agree with the synthesis verdict (overvalued, fair value ~$50) but think the Market Forces "value trap" framing overshoots. KO isn't burning cash — it's generating $5B+ of real FCF, just less than the optics suggest. The GLP-1 thesis is the lazy bear case; volume data inside KO's own segments still shows low-single-digit unit case growth in developing markets, and Zero Sugar is doing real work. The contrarian argument the models underweight: if the 2025 margin expansion is even half-structural (post-refranchising steady state of ~25% operating margins vs. pre-2024's 22%), then normalized earnings power is ~$11–12B, not $13B and not $10B. Cap that at 22x for a fortress brand with 3% yield and you get $260–290B — still 15–25% below today's $345B, but not the 38% haircut synthesis demands. Fair value is probably $62–68, not $49.

The insider activity is being mis-read as neutral. Six S-Sales in three days alongside M-Exempt option exercises is routine executive monetization, not a signal — but the absence of any open-market buying over the visible window in a stock that insiders supposedly view as a compounder is itself a tell. Balance sheet data is incomplete (no total debt, no equity figure) which is a real gap given KO carries ~$45B gross debt — the EV/EBITDA of 19.7x already reflects that, but I can't independently verify leverage trajectory. Narrative module's read is the sharpest of the bunch: this is an anchored steady-compounder where the 60% premium is the market paying for certainty, not growth. That premium compresses when bond yields stay elevated and when the FCF/NI gap forces a "quality of earnings" conversation — which is exactly where this stock is vulnerable in the next four quarters. I'd dissent mildly from synthesis on magnitude, agree on direction: this is a sell-the-rip or wait-for-$65 name, not a $50 disaster.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-24 03:06:11
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I disagree with Opus's fair value estimate of $62–68. Overvalued at $80.31, fair value closer to $50 reflects the cash flow challenges and reliance on accounting shifts rather than organic growth.

The raw data on Coca-Cola paints a picture of a company with robust revenue growth over the past five years, achieving a 24% increase from $38.66 billion in 2021 to $47.94 billion in 2025. This indicates a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of roughly 5.5%, which contradicts the 2.4% CAGR stated in the momentum module. Net income has also seen a similar upward trajectory, with a significant leap to $13.11 billion in 2025 from $9.77 billion in 2021. However, the stark disparity between net income and free cash flow (FCF) is concerning, with FCF at just $5.30 billion in 2025 compared to net income, highlighting a 40% FCF/NI conversion ratio. This suggests underlying issues possibly related to working capital changes or non-cash items that have not been sufficiently addressed or explained.

Opus argues that Coca-Cola's recent operating margin expansion from 21.2% to 28.7% in 2025 seems more a result of refranchising gains rather than genuine pricing power or operational improvements. I agree with this assertion; the refranchising of bottlers is likely a significant factor in margin enhancement, which could be misleading unless the structural changes are fully understood. Opus also highlights the importance of the FCF decline as a bear catalyst, which I concur with, given the unsustainable nature of funding dividends from the balance sheet rather than cash flow.

Where I diverge from Opus is in their valuation conclusion. While they suggest a fair value range of $62–68, I believe this is optimistic given the current market conditions and FCF trends. The synthesis model's $50 fair value aligns more closely with my assessment, especially considering the market's inflated expectations of growth and stability that are not supported by the cash flow data. The reliance on narratives such as dividend reliability and brand strength, while historically valid, appear overstated when juxtaposed with the financial realities.

A careful skeptic might argue that the refranchising efforts and margin expansions are indeed part of a long-term strategic shift that could stabilize and even grow profitability beyond current projections. They might also posit that Coca-Cola’s brand strength and emerging markets potential justify a premium not fully captured in traditional valuation models, especially given the company's historical resilience.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.352 · d1100787 · 2026-06-26 11:39:30