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FRESH Analysis Report
Jun 24, 2026
3 days ago · 100% complete · +8 refreshed

GE Aerospace

GE NYSE Categories PDF
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Evendale, OH 45215, United States IPO 1962 geaerospace.com Updated Jun 24, 3:01am
Price
$356.47
Market Cap
$372.5B
Employees
53,000
Beta
1.38
Avg Volume
5,754,143
CEO
H. Lawrence Culp Jr.
Business Description

Based in Evendale, Ohio, GE Aerospace is a prominent American aviation enterprise with roots tracing back to its 1878 founding by Thomas Alva Edison. The company specializes in manufacturing and supplying jet and turboprop engines, along with integrated systems, for an extensive range of aircraft, including those in commercial, military, business, and general aviation use. Its robust brand lineup features Avio Aero, Unison, GE Additive, and Dowty Propellers. GE Aerospace organizes its activities into two core segments: Commercial Engines & Services, and Defense & Propulsion Technologies. The Commercial Engines & Services division oversees the design, development, production, and maintenance of jet engines for commercial airframes, business aviation, and aeroderivative applications. Meanwhile, the Defense & Propulsion Technologies segment is dedicated to providing vital engines and critical systems for defense-related aerospace needs.

Business History
Generated: Jun 24, 2026 3:03am
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 24, 2026 3:00am (3d ago)
$356.47
+1.35 (+0.38%)
Day Range
$347.77 – $359.85
52-Week Range
$243.34 – $364.70
50-Day MA
$308.57
200-Day MA
$305.83
Volume
3,101,764.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $355.00
Consensus $380.14
High $425.00
(63 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 1,044,829,627.00
Float 1,039,372,554.00
Free Float 99.5%
High free float — 99.5% of shares trade freely, ~0.5% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 24, 2026 3:07am (3d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 24, 2026 3:04am (3d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 24, 2026 3:02am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
42.72
Stock Price: $356.47
EPS (Diluted): 8.16
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
17.60
Stock Price: $356.47
Total Equity: $18.68B
Shares: 1,067,000,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
31.68
Market Cap: $372.45B
Total Debt: $20.49B
Cash: $12.39B
EBITDA: $12.06B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$336.8B
Market Cap: $372.45B
Total Debt: $20.49B
Cash: $12.39B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
36.8%
Gross Profit: $16.89B
Revenue: $45.86B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
19.1%
Operating Income: $8.77B
Revenue: $45.86B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
19.0%
Net Income: $8.70B
Revenue: $45.86B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
46.4%
Net Income: $8.70B
Total Equity: $18.68B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
8.5%
Operating Income: $8.77B
Tax Rate: 14.1%
Equity: $18.68B
Total Debt: $20.49B
Cash: $12.39B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.04
Current Assets: $40.60B
Current Liabilities: $38.98B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
1.10
Short-Term Debt: $1.69B
Long-Term Debt: $18.81B
Total Debt: $20.49B
Total Equity: $18.68B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$42.98
Revenue: $45.86B
Shares: 1,067,000,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$17.50
Total Equity: $18.68B
Shares: 1,067,000,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$6.81
Operating CF: $8.54B
CapEx: -$1.27B
Shares: 1,067,000,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.4%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $356.47
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $8.70B
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 24, 2026 3:02am
Compares GE against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · three lenses
Three separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-06-24 03:09:51
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality - wait for a dip 8/10
Elite aerospace franchise (quality 91) trading rich at 45x+ forward (value -78) - this is a wait-for-the-pullback name, not a buy here despite the +29 tailwind.
The cruxWhether you get a 15-25% drawdown to reset the entry; the business is not the question, the price is.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from GE's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionShare Count Shrinking
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The three lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+91
Strong
edge √Σ 149 · risk √Σ 58 · conf 8/10

Since the 2023-2024 reshape into a pure-play aerospace business, the operating profile has stepped up materially: gross margin expanded from 23.2% (2021) to 36.8% (2025), operating margin from 1.9% to 19.1%, and revenue rebased to $45.9B with FCF doubling year-over-year to $7.26B in 2025. Earnings quality reads clean - accruals at -0.8% of assets, OCF/NI of 3.86x, Beneish M of -2.19, and Altman Z of 3.54 - consistent with a mature industrial earning real cash, not paper profits. Net income of $8.7B against $7.26B FCF is a believable conversion ratio for a business with heavy aftermarket service economics.

Strengths 5
m80
Margin expansion is dramatic and durable
Operating margin moved from 1.9% (2021) to 19.1% (2025) with gross margin up ~14 points, reflecting the focused aerospace franchise plus aftermarket mix on the LEAP/CFM installed base.
m70
FCF inflection in 2025
FCF nearly doubled from $3.68B (2024) to $7.26B (2025), with OCF/NI of 3.86x signaling strong working-capital and services-driven cash generation.
m65
Share count shrinking, buybacks vastly exceed SBC
Diluted shares declined from 1.10B to 1.07B (-0.7% CAGR) and buyback-to-SBC ratio of 2403% means per-share value is being concentrated, not diluted.
m60
Clean earnings-quality screens
Beneish M -2.19, Altman Z 3.54 (safe zone), negative accruals -0.8% of assets - no mechanical manipulation flags.
m55
Implied moat in installed base
Engine OEMs with multi-decade aftermarket annuities (LEAP, GE9X, GEnx) are a structurally advantaged business; expanding margins on growing revenue is consistent with that pricing power.
Concerns 3
m45
Net debt position
Net cash is -$8.1B; liquid cash $12.4B against larger debt. Not a survival issue given $7B+ FCF, but the balance sheet is a constraint rather than a cushion.
m30
Module flags 'Weak Cash Flow Quality' despite the FCF jump
Worth interrogating - the 2025 FCF surge could include working-capital tailwinds or customer advances (typical in aerospace) that may not repeat at the same magnitude.
m20
Insider sales only, no open-market buys
6 sells (~$11.7M) vs 0 buys in 12 months, mostly tax-withholding linked to vesting - mild signal, not alarming.
This is a genuinely strong franchise that has been surgically refocused. The margin lift from sub-2% to 19% operating margin in four years is not financial engineering - it is the real economics of an engine aftermarket business finally showing through once the conglomerate noise was removed. Earnings quality screens are clean, share count is shrinking, and FCF is now scaling. The two honest caveats: the balance sheet still carries net debt (so it is solid, not a fortress), and I want to confirm the 2025 FCF doubling is repeatable rather than a working-capital one-off. Net-net, this looks like a high-quality industrial compounder - I would grade it Strong, edging toward Fortress if the cash-flow durability proves out.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • Composition of 2025 FCF - how much came from customer advances, LTSA billings, or working-capital release versus underlying earnings
  • Customer/program concentration: CFM/LEAP exposure and Boeing/Airbus build-rate sensitivity
  • Aftermarket vs OEM revenue mix and services margin disclosure
  • Pension and discontinued-operations liabilities post-GE Vernova/HealthCare spins
  • Debt maturity ladder and any remaining legacy GE Capital obligations
  • LEAP durability/time-on-wing issues and warranty reserve adequacy
Valuation / Mispricing
-78
Rich
edge √Σ 30 · risk √Σ 108 · conf 7/10
Price $356 vs a deserved value I'd peg around $280-310 on quality-adjusted 2026 earnings - roughly 10-20% above fair, no margin of safety. attractive below $270.00

At $356.47 and a $372B market cap, GE Aerospace trades like a premium pure-play aero franchise that the market fully understands. On consensus, GE earns roughly $5.5-6 of EPS in 2025 scaling toward $7-8 by 2026-27, which puts the stock at ~60x trailing and ~45-50x forward - well above the S&P and above large-cap A&D peers (RTX ~22x, LMT ~17x). EV/EBITDA in the high-20s and an FCF yield near 2-2.5% similarly say 'priced for the bull case.' The e2e synthesis flagging 'High Conviction Required' is consistent with that: methods are likely scattered and the high marks lean on heroic aftermarket growth assumptions.

Cheap signals 1
m30
Aftermarket annuity supports a premium
Installed base of ~70k commercial engines generates decades of high-margin services revenue; a 25-30x multiple on normalized earnings is defensible, just not 45x+.
Rich / priced-in 4
m70
Premium multiple vs A&D peers
~45-50x forward EPS and ~2% FCF yield vs RTX low-20s and LMT high-teens. The aftermarket mix justifies a premium, but not this wide a spread.
m60
Priced for sustained shop-visit super-cycle
To justify $356 you need LEAP shop-visit volumes ramping through 2030 with services margins expanding further from ~30%. Any narrowbody production hiccup at Boeing/Airbus compresses the math fast.
m45
Quality already in the price
The margin lift from 2% to 19% and clean earnings quality are real - and exactly why the multiple is where it is. Strong business does not equal cheap stock.
m35
Limited margin of safety on downside scenarios
A cycle pause, MAX production cut, or services pricing scrutiny easily takes the stock to $260-290 - 20-25% downside - without breaking the long-term thesis.
I respect the business but I am not paying 45x+ for it. At $356 the market has already underwritten a clean cycle, sustained aftermarket margin expansion, and disciplined capital return - that is the bull case as the base case. I want this 15-25% lower, call it sub-$300 and ideally near $270, before the risk/reward turns interesting. Until then it is a hold-quality-at-full-price situation, not a mispricing I can exploit.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • LEAP shop-visit cadence and services margin trajectory in next 10-Q
  • 2026 guidance for commercial services revenue growth and segment margin
  • Boeing 737 MAX and 787 build rates - direct read-through to OE deliveries
  • Defense segment margin recovery pace
  • Capital return mix - buyback pace at these multiples is value-destructive if sustained
General Sentiment
+29
Tailwind
tail √Σ 83 · head √Σ 54 · conf 6/10

GE Aerospace sits inside an active, moderate-intensity 'aerospace supercycle' narrative that the tape is still respecting: commercial aviation normalization plus rising defense budgets, anchored by sticky aftermarket services. News flow over the last 72h is predominantly constructive on the parent (capital returns piece, '333% three-year surge' framing, mega-cap inclusion) and on the sibling GEHC (RBC initiation, AI-imaging cycle), which keeps the family halo positive. The bear angle (electric/hydrogen propulsion, Boeing MAX exposure) is dormant in current flow, so narrative durability is doing work here.

Tailwinds 3
m60
Aerospace supercycle narrative intact
Steady-compounder story with moderate durability is still the dominant frame; no cracks in flow this week, and aftermarket-services confidence keeps the multiple supported.
m45
Constructive analyst tone, upward revision
23 Buys vs 11 Holds, zero Sells, and a fresh upward target revision at $375 versus $356 spot. Tone is not euphoric but clearly skewed positive with no visible downgrade pressure.
m35
Capital-return news drumbeat
Coverage explicitly highlighting buybacks, dividends, and 2026 cash flow outlook is the kind of narrative reinforcement that supports a quality-industrial bid in a choppy tape.
Headwinds 3
m40
High beta into a softening tape
Beta 1.38 with S&P -3.2% off highs, VIX 19.5, and 10y at 4.5%. If the tape tilts further risk-off, GE gives back more than the index even with a clean story.
m30
'Too late to buy' framing after 333% run
Headlines are starting to question whether upside is exhausted post-surge. This is early profit-taking psychology, not a broken narrative, but it caps near-term enthusiasm.
m20
GE Vernova sibling weakness
GEV underperforming the market in same session creates mild guilt-by-association optics for the broader GE complex, though aerospace fundamentals are decoupled.
Net pressure leans positive but not loudly so. The narrative is working, analyst tone is supportive with fresh upward revisions, and news flow is constructive on capital returns - that is a real tailwind for a steady-compounder archetype. The offsets are tape-driven, not story-driven: beta 1.38 into a neutral-to-slightly-soft market with 4.5% 10y, plus the natural fatigue after a 333% run starting to show up in headlines. I read this as a Tailwind, not Strong Tailwind, because the cult coefficient is low and intensity only moderate - the story supports the stock but will not levitate it if the broader tape rolls over.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Whether VIX pushes above 22 and risk-off accelerates - high-beta industrials would feel it
  • Any Boeing MAX production headline that re-injects the bear case into flow
  • Sustained analyst target revisions above $380 to confirm the upgrade cycle is alive
  • Rotation out of the multi-year industrial winners as 'too late to buy' framing spreads
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
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Three lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), and General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 24, 2026 3:07:00 am

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 24, 2026 3:04am (3d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $56.5B $29.1B $35.3B $38.7B $45.9B
Cost of Revenue $43.4B $19.0B $22.9B $24.3B $29.0B
Gross Profit $13.1B $10.2B $12.4B $14.4B $16.9B
Operating Expenses $12.0B $6.6B $7.7B $7.6B $8.1B
Operating Income $1.1B $3.6B $4.7B $6.8B $8.8B
Net Income -$6.3B $336.0M $9.5B $6.6B $8.7B
EBITDA -$1.5B $4.0B $12.6B $9.8B $12.1B
EPS $-6.16 $0.04 $8.44 $6.04 $8.16
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 24, 2026 3:00am (3d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $15.8B $15.8B $15.2B $13.6B $12.4B
Total Current Assets $66.3B $58.4B $42.6B $37.6B $40.6B
Total Assets $198.9B $188.9B $176.1B $125.8B $130.2B
Current Liabilities $52.0B $49.4B $32.1B $34.4B $39.0B
Long-Term Debt $30.8B $20.3B $19.4B $17.2B $18.8B
Total Liabilities $157.1B $153.9B $147.5B $106.2B $111.3B
Total Equity $40.3B $33.7B $27.4B $19.3B $18.7B
Retained Earnings $85.1B $83.0B $86.6B $80.5B $87.7B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 23, 2026 3:04am (4d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $3.5B $5.9B $5.2B $4.7B $8.5B
Capital Expenditure -$1.1B -$1.2B -$1.6B -$1.0B -$1.3B
Free Cash Flow $2.4B $4.7B $3.6B $3.7B $7.3B
Acquisitions (net) $2.6B $4.7B $8.6B $5.6B -$360.0M
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks -$107.0M -$1.0B -$1.2B -$5.8B -$7.6B
Net Change in Cash -$20.7B $40.0M $663.0M -$3.9B -$1.1B
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 24, 2026 3:00am (3d ago)
Metric 2027 2028 2029 2030
Revenue $53.2B
$51.8B – $54.2B
$58.2B
$58.1B – $58.2B
$62.1B
$60.3B – $64.5B
$65.9B
$64.0B – $68.4B
EBITDA $10.5B
$10.2B – $10.7B
$11.5B
$11.4B – $11.5B
$12.2B
$11.9B – $12.7B
$13.0B
$12.6B – $13.5B
Net Income $9.7B
$8.9B – $9.8B
$10.6B
$9.0B – $11.9B
$11.6B
$11.2B – $12.2B
$12.9B
$12.5B – $13.6B
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 24, 2026 3:04am (3d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth -48.4% +21.3% +9.5% +18.5%
Gross Profit Growth -22.5% +22.2% +16.0% +17.3%
Operating Income Growth +239.9% +31.2% +43.3% +29.7%
Net Income Growth +105.3% +2,722.0% -30.9% +32.8%
EBITDA Growth +361.8% +212.7% -22.6% +23.2%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 24, 2026 3:04am (3d ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-06-24 Althoff Judson A-Award 517.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-24 Althoff Judson 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-05 McDew Darren W A-Award 678.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-05 LESJAK CATHERINE A A-Award 678.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-05 HORTON THOMAS W A-Award 678.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-05 Goren Isabella D A-Award 678.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-05 Enders Thomas A-Award 678.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-05 BUSH WESLEY G A-Award 678.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-05 Billson Margaret S A-Award 678.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-05 Bazin Sebastien A-Award 678.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-01 Procacci Riccardo M-Exempt 966.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-01 Procacci Riccardo F-InKind 416.00 $286.51 $119,188
2026-05-01 Procacci Riccardo M-Exempt 966.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-01 Phillips John R, III M-Exempt 2,255.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-01 Phillips John R, III F-InKind 1,109.00 $286.51 $317,740
2026-05-01 Phillips John R, III M-Exempt 2,255.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-01 Meisner Christian M-Exempt 2,255.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-01 Meisner Christian F-InKind 1,045.00 $286.51 $299,403
2026-05-01 Meisner Christian M-Exempt 2,255.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-01 Gowder Amy L M-Exempt 966.00 $0.00 $0
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 20, 2026 5:08am (7d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-03-09 $0.47 2026-02-06 2026-03-09 2026-04-27
2025-12-29 $0.36 2025-12-04 2025-12-29 2026-01-26
2025-09-29 $0.36 2025-09-18 2025-09-29 2025-10-27
2025-07-07 $0.36 2025-06-27 2025-07-07 2025-07-25
2025-03-10 $0.36 2025-02-14 2025-03-10 2025-04-25
2024-12-27 $0.28 2024-12-13 2024-12-27 2025-01-27
2024-09-26 $0.28 2024-09-13 2024-09-26 2024-10-25
2024-07-11 $0.28 2024-06-20 2024-07-11 2024-07-25
2024-04-12 $0.28 2024-04-05 2024-04-15 2024-04-25
2023-12-27 $0.08 2023-12-15 2023-12-28 2024-01-25
2023-09-25 $0.08 2023-09-08 2023-09-26 2023-10-25
2023-07-10 $0.08 2023-06-30 2023-07-11 2023-07-25
2023-03-06 $0.08 2023-02-10 2023-03-07 2023-04-25
2022-12-14 $0.08 2022-11-30 2022-12-15 2023-01-25
2022-09-26 $0.08 2022-09-09 2022-09-27 2022-10-25
2022-06-27 $0.08 2022-06-17 2022-06-28 2022-07-25
2022-03-07 $0.08 2022-02-11 2022-03-08 2022-04-25
2021-12-20 $0.08 2021-12-10 2021-12-21 2022-01-25
2021-09-24 $0.08 2021-09-10 2021-09-27 2021-10-25
2021-06-25 $0.01 2021-06-19 2021-06-28 2021-07-26
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for GE — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-24 03:07:38
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict Overvalued at 42.7x TTM with a fresh Q1 margin reversal — fair value $240-270 on normalized earnings; dissent

Looking at the raw quarterly trajectory first: revenue ran $9.09B → $9.84B → $10.81B → $9.93B → $11.02B → $12.22B → $12.72B → $12.39B. The latest print (Mar 2026) is the first sequential decline in five quarters, and net income dropped from $2.54B to $1.94B — margin compressed from 20.0% to 15.6%, a 440bp hit in one quarter. That is not a rounding error on a $372B market cap trading at 42.7x TTM earnings. The "recent_earnings_yoy: 32.8%" headline is true but backwards-looking against an easy Q1'25 comp; the sequential story is deceleration into margin compression. Annual NI of $8.70B against a $372B cap is a 2.3% earnings yield with a 0.44% dividend — you are paying bond-like yield for an industrial cyclical at peak-cycle margins.

Where I disagree with the prior models: the synthesis "High Conviction Required" and the Market Forces "Neutral" reads are too soft. At 42.7x TTM earnings, 17.6x P/B, and 31.7x EV/EBITDA, this is priced like a software compounder, not an aerospace OEM with a 19% operating margin that just printed a margin reversal. The narrative layer correctly flags "anchored / moderate" but understates the asymmetry: if Q1'26's 15.6% margin is the new run-rate rather than a one-off, normalized NI is closer to $7.5-8B, and a generous 25x multiple (still rich for A&D) gets you to $185-200, not $356. The bull story leans on LEAP aftermarket compounding, which is real, but CFM is a 50/50 JV with Safran — GE doesn't capture the full economics the multiple implies. The pre-flight model's "~25x P/E" math is wrong; it's 42.7x TTM, and on the most recent annualized quarter ($7.76B NI run-rate) it's 48x.

The contrarian case the models underweight: FCF CAGR of 42.4% with earnings CAGR of -4.2% over the lookback is a red flag, not a feature — that gap typically means working capital tailwinds (customer advances on a fat backlog), not durable cash generation. FCF Quality is flagged "Weak" and then everyone moves on. Operating CF of $8.54B against $8.70B NI is fine on its face, but with backlog-funded advances normalizing as Boeing/Airbus deliveries catch up, FCF conversion likely compresses. Add in: Boeing 737 MAX production rate is still constrained, which throttles LEAP-1B deliveries (highest-margin new engines); supply chain inflation is showing up in the Q1 margin print; and the long-tail electric/hydrogen disruption isn't priced because it's 15+ years out — fair, but it caps terminal multiple expansion. Insider data is uninformative — all routine awards and tax-withholding F-InKind, no open-market buying or selling of signal value.

Data quality caveats: balance sheet is missing total debt and total equity, which is a serious gap for a company that emerged from a conglomerate spin with complex legacy liabilities (pension, insurance run-off at GE's former financial arm). ROE of 46.4% on P/B of 17.6 implies book equity around $21B — tiny relative to $372B cap, meaning any goodwill impairment or pension remeasurement moves the needle. The 2023 NI of $9.48B vs 2024 NI of $6.56B drop reflects spin-related accounting noise, so the "earnings CAGR -4.2%" is partially artifact — but that cuts both ways: it means we don't have a clean multi-year earnings track record to underwrite a 42x multiple either. I dissent from the synthesis's polite "High Conviction Required" framing and side closer to Market Forces' 15-25% downside, but I'd widen that band. Fair value on normalized $8-9B NI at a 28-30x peak-quality A&D multiple (generous, in line with TDG) is $240-270. The Q1'26 margin print is the tell; if Q2 confirms 15-17% net margin as the new normal, this re-rates hard. If it bounces back to 19-20%, the bulls get another leg. Either way, $356 demands you underwrite the best case.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-24 03:07:51
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I concur with Opus — overvalued at $356, but I see fair value in the $250-280 range, aligning more closely with aerospace industry norms and accounting for recent margin pressures.

In my independent analysis of GE Aerospace, several key elements stand out from the raw data. The company has demonstrated impressive revenue growth, with a recent 18.5% year-over-year increase, leading to a 13.9% CAGR over the past few years. However, the sequential decline in revenue from $12.72 billion to $12.39 billion in the first quarter of 2026, coupled with a significant margin contraction from 20% to 15.6%, raises concerns about sustainability at its current valuation. Despite a robust free cash flow CAGR of 42.4%, the earnings CAGR is negative at -4.2%, indicating potential underlying issues with profitability and cost management. These figures suggest that while GE Aerospace is capitalizing on mid-term cyclical tailwinds, there are emerging risks that could impact future performance.

I agree with Claude Opus that the valuation appears stretched, particularly at the current P/E ratio of 42.7x TTM earnings. Opus rightly points out that this multiple is more akin to a high-growth tech company than an industrial cyclical, especially in light of the recent margin compression. The concern about the elevated valuation is compounded by the company's reliance on the LEAP engine's aftermarket growth, which, while strong, does not fully account for the risks associated with its joint venture structure with Safran.

Where I diverge from Opus is in the interpretation of the market's pricing strategy. While Opus sees the "High Conviction Required" as too lenient, I believe it underscores the necessity for investors to weigh both the potential for sustained aftermarket growth and the margin volatility inherent in aerospace. The market's neutral stance on forces suggests that while the company has a strong moat, the inherent risks associated with supply chain issues and technological disruptions are not fully priced in. The narrative around GE Aerospace as a steady compounder is credible, yet the challenges posed by electric and hydrogen propulsion technology could pressure long-term valuations.

A careful skeptic might argue that both my analysis and Opus's overlook the potential for strategic pivots or industry shifts that could alter the competitive landscape. For instance, any unexpected advancements in engine efficiency or significant defense contract wins could reignite growth and justify higher multiples. Additionally, the lack of debt and equity data introduces uncertainty in balance sheet strength, which could either conceal hidden risks or understate financial stability.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.352 · d1100787 · 2026-06-26 11:39:30