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AGING Analysis Report
Jun 7, 2026
19 days ago · 100% complete

Texas Pacific Land Corporation

TPL NYSE Categories PDF
Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Dallas, TX 75204, United States IPO 1980 texaspacific.com Updated Jun 7, 5:15pm
Price
$389.79
Market Cap
$26.9B
Employees
111
Beta
0.61
Avg Volume
468,974
CEO
Tyler Glover
Business Description

Texas Pacific Land Corporation engages in the land and resource management, and water services and operations businesses. The company's Land and Resource Management segment manages approximately 880,000 acres of land. This segment also holds own a 1/128th nonparticipating perpetual oil and gas royalty interest (NPRI) under approximately 85,000 acres of land; a 1/16th NPRI under approximately 371,000 acres of land; and approximately 4,000 additional net royalty acres located in the western part of Texas. In addition, this segment engages in easements and commercial leases activities, such as oil, gas and related hydrocarbons, power line and utility easements, and subsurface wellbore easements. Further, this segment leases its land for processing, storage, and compression facilities and roads; and is involved in sale of materials, such as caliche. Its Water Services and Operations segment provides full-service water offerings, including water sourcing, produced-water gathering/treatment, infrastructure development, disposal solutions, water tracking, analytics, and well testing services to operators in the Permian Basin. This segment also holds royalties for water sourced from its land. Texas Pacific Land Corporation was founded in 1888 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

Business History
Generated: Jun 7, 2026 5:18pm
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:16pm (19d ago)
$389.79
-16.94 (-4.16%)
Day Range
$386.78 – $400.94
52-Week Range
$269.23 – $547.20
50-Day MA
$425.98
200-Day MA
$367.41
Volume
290,964.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $639.00
Consensus $639.00
High $639.00
(2 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 68,974,400.00
Float 68,633,390.00
Free Float 99.5%
High free float — 99.5% of shares trade freely, ~0.5% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:23pm (19d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:23pm (19d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 7, 2026 5:18pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
53.37
Stock Price: $389.79
EPS (Diluted): 6.98
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
13.57
Stock Price: $389.79
Total Equity: $1.46B
Shares: 69,027,492
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
38.51
Market Cap: $26.89B
Total Debt: $16.18M
Cash: $144.81M
EBITDA: $655.46M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$19.7B
Market Cap: $26.89B
Total Debt: $16.18M
Cash: $144.81M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
100.0%
Gross Profit: $798.19M
Revenue: $798.19M
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
74.2%
Operating Income: $592.16M
Revenue: $798.19M
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
60.3%
Net Income: $481.38M
Revenue: $798.19M
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
35.5%
Net Income: $481.38M
Total Equity: $1.46B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
29.8%
Operating Income: $592.16M
Tax Rate: 21.1%
Equity: $1.46B
Total Debt: $16.18M
Cash: $144.81M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
4.40
Current Assets: $319.32M
Current Liabilities: $72.60M
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.01
Short-Term Debt: $0.00
Long-Term Debt: $16.18M
Total Debt: $16.18M
Total Equity: $1.46B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$11.56
Revenue: $798.19M
Shares: 69,027,492
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$21.14
Total Equity: $1.46B
Shares: 69,027,492
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$7.05
Operating CF: $545.91M
CapEx: -$59.53M
Shares: 69,027,492
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.7%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $389.79
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $481.38M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 7, 2026 5:18pm
Compares TPL against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 7, 2026 5:22:20 pm

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:23pm (19d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $451.0M $667.4M $631.6M $705.8M $798.2M
Cost of Revenue $29.5M $32.9M $48.3M $71.3M $0
Gross Profit $421.5M $634.5M $583.3M $634.5M $798.2M
Operating Expenses $59.1M $72.2M $97.2M $95.4M $206.0M
Operating Income $362.4M $562.3M $486.1M $539.1M $592.2M
Net Income $270.0M $446.4M $405.6M $454.0M $481.4M
EBITDA $378.7M $577.7M $500.8M $564.3M $655.5M
EPS $3.87 $6.42 $5.87 $6.58 $6.98
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:19pm (19d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $428.2M $510.8M $725.2M $369.8M $144.8M
Total Current Assets $526.5M $633.4M $862.5M $503.4M $319.3M
Total Assets $764.1M $877.4M $1.2B $1.2B $1.6B
Current Liabilities $67.5M $56.8M $63.1M $60.4M $72.6M
Long-Term Debt $0 $0 $0 $0 $16.2M
Total Liabilities $112.4M $104.5M $113.2M $115.6M $164.4M
Total Equity $651.7M $772.9M $1.0B $1.1B $1.5B
Retained Earnings $668.0M $866.1M $1.2B $1.3B $1.6B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:23pm (19d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $265.2M $447.1M $418.3M $490.7M $545.9M
Capital Expenditure -$15.5M -$19.2M -$15.0M -$29.7M -$59.5M
Free Cash Flow $249.6M $427.9M $403.3M $461.0M $486.4M
Acquisitions (net) $0 $0 $0 -$45.0M $0
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks -$19.7M -$89.5M -$44.6M -$30.8M -$23.2M
Net Change in Cash $145.2M $88.9M $213.4M -$359.2M -$226.0M
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:16pm (19d ago)
Metric 2025 2026 2027 2028
Revenue $794.0M
$794.0M – $794.0M
$1.0B
$1.0B – $1.0B
$1.1B
$1.1B – $1.1B
$1.3B
$1.3B – $1.3B
EBITDA $654.1M
$654.1M – $654.1M
$851.4M
$851.4M – $851.4M
$923.0M
$923.0M – $923.0M
$1.0B
$1.0B – $1.0B
Net Income $481.9M
$481.9M – $481.9M
$632.9M
$632.9M – $632.9M
$696.0M
$696.0M – $696.0M
$0
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:23pm (19d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +48.0% -5.4% +11.8% +13.1%
Gross Profit Growth +50.6% -8.1% +8.8% +25.8%
Operating Income Growth +55.2% -13.6% +10.9% +9.8%
Net Income Growth +65.3% -9.1% +11.9% +6.0%
EBITDA Growth +52.6% -13.3% +12.7% +16.2%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:22pm (19d ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-06-25 HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC P-Purchase 1.00 $388.58 $389
2026-06-24 HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC P-Purchase 1.00 $374.10 $374
2026-06-23 HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC P-Purchase 1.00 $370.60 $371
2026-06-22 HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC P-Purchase 1.00 $351.33 $351
2026-06-18 HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC P-Purchase 1.00 $355.47 $355
2026-06-17 HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC P-Purchase 1.00 $356.60 $357
2026-06-16 HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC P-Purchase 1.00 $356.31 $356
2026-06-15 DOYLE PETER P-Purchase 4.00 $381.95 $1,528
2026-06-15 HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC P-Purchase 1.00 $369.40 $369
2026-06-12 HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC P-Purchase 1.00 $384.53 $385
2026-06-11 HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC P-Purchase 1.00 $370.47 $370
2026-06-10 HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC P-Purchase 1.00 $380.37 $380
2026-06-09 HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC P-Purchase 1.00 $386.62 $387
2026-06-05 STEDDUM CHRIS S-Sale 3,170.00 $400.25 $1.3M
2026-06-08 STEDDUM CHRIS S-Sale 730.00 $400.21 $292,153
2026-06-08 STEDDUM CHRIS S-Sale 100.00 $401.18 $40,118
2026-06-08 HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC P-Purchase 1.00 $402.65 $403
2026-06-05 HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC P-Purchase 1.00 $394.84 $395
2026-06-04 HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC P-Purchase 1.00 $406.73 $407
2026-06-03 HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC P-Purchase 1.00 $406.72 $407
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 7, 2026 5:16pm (19d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-06-01 $0.60 2026-05-05 2026-06-01 2026-06-15
2026-03-02 $0.60 2026-02-10 2026-03-02 2026-03-16
2025-12-01 $1.60 2025-11-03 2025-12-01 2025-12-15
2025-09-02 $1.60 2025-08-05 2025-09-02 2025-09-16
2025-06-02 $1.60 2025-05-06 2025-06-02 2025-06-16
2025-03-03 $1.60 2025-02-18 2025-03-03 2025-03-17
2024-12-02 $1.60 2024-11-04 2024-12-02 2024-12-16
2024-09-03 $1.17 2024-08-07 2024-09-03 2024-09-17
2024-07-01 $10.00 2024-06-13 2024-07-01 2024-07-15
2024-06-03 $1.17 2024-05-06 2024-06-03 2024-06-17
2024-02-29 $3.50 2024-02-13 2024-03-01 2024-03-15
2023-11-30 $3.25 2023-10-31 2023-12-01 2023-12-15
2023-08-31 $3.25 2023-08-01 2023-09-01 2023-09-15
2023-06-07 $3.25 2023-05-02 2023-06-08 2023-06-15
2023-03-07 $3.25 2023-02-13 2023-03-08 2023-03-15
2022-12-07 $3.00 2022-11-01 2022-12-08 2022-12-15
2022-09-07 $3.00 2022-08-02 2022-09-08 2022-09-15
2022-06-07 $23.00 2022-05-03 2022-06-08 2022-06-15
2022-03-07 $3.00 2022-02-11 2022-03-08 2022-03-15
2021-12-07 $2.75 2021-10-28 2021-12-08 2021-12-15
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for TPL — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-07 17:23:01
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict Priced for Perfection — agree with Synthesis, dissent from Market Forces; fair value $250-290 range, current $390 still embeds heroic Permian growth and ignores 600bps of margin compression over seven quarters.

Starting from the raw numbers: TPL ran $798M revenue in 2025 vs $451M in 2021 — a 15% CAGR, but the trajectory is lumpier than that suggests. 2022 was $667M, 2023 dropped to $632M (oil prices fell), 2024 recovered to $706M, 2025 hit $798M. The Q1 2026 print of $236.8M annualizes near $950M if you straight-line it, but Q1 has historically been a seasonal high (Q1 2025 was $196M vs Q2 2025 $187.5M). More importantly, net margin compressed from 66.5% in Q2 2024 to 58-60% in recent quarters even as revenue grew — that's mix shift toward lower-margin water/surface revenue away from pure royalty, and it matters for the "perpetual high-margin royalty" thesis. FCF of $486M on a $26.9B market cap is a 1.8% yield. ROIC of 30% is real but on a tiny capital base; the relevant question is what the marginal incremental dollar of retained earnings earns, and with $144.8M cash sitting idle and minimal capex needs, capital allocation discipline (not return on existing assets) is the binding constraint.

The prior models are internally contradictory in a way worth flagging. The Synthesis says "Priced for Perfection" with 41.7% implied FCF growth required. Market Forces says "Market Tailwinds" and calls it mispriced cheap. These cannot both be right at $390. The Pre-Flight correctly identifies the royalty-platform nature, but the Synthesis math is more defensible: at 55x earnings and 24x sales for a business whose underlying commodity (WTI) is range-bound and whose acreage is fixed, you need either sustained Permian production growth at the wellhead (which Diamondback, Pioneer/Exxon, and others are guiding to moderate, not accelerate) OR aggressive multiple expansion on a "scarcity" narrative. The Market Forces verdict reads like it's pattern-matching on "high margin + low debt + insider buying" without doing the multiple work. I side with Synthesis.

The contrarian case against my own skepticism: TPL has no debt, $144.8M cash, 74% operating margins, and the Permian still has 15+ years of Tier 1 inventory at current rig counts. Every barrel produced on their acreage in perpetuity pays them a royalty with zero incremental capex. If you believe oil stays $70-85 and Permian production grinds higher 3-5%/year for a decade, and TPL's water/surface business compounds 10%+, then a 50x multiple is defensible because the duration is effectively infinite and the terminal value dominates DCF. The stock fell from $547 to $390 (-29%) — some of the "priced for perfection" premium has already bled out. But the insider activity is a red herring: ten consecutive 1-share purchases is almost certainly a DRIP or automated plan, not a signal. Anyone citing "net insider buying" here without flagging the 1-share lot size is being sloppy.

Where the data is thin: balance sheet equity and total debt are blank in the tile, which matters less for TPL (essentially debt-free) than for most names, but P/B of 13.6 implies ~$1.98B equity — fine. The bigger gap is no forward guidance on water services growth, which is the swing factor between "royalty company growing 5%" and "royalty + infrastructure compounding 10%." Q1 2026 at $236.8M is encouraging but one print. Margin compression from 66.5% → 60.3% over seven quarters is the most underweighted negative in the prior models — nobody flagged that the mix shift is structurally diluting the very thing that justifies the multiple. At $390, you're paying 55x earnings for a business with decelerating margin and commodity-dependent revenue; fair value on a 30-35x multiple of ~$500M normalized earnings is closer to $230-280. The 29% drawdown isn't enough.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-07 17:23:07
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I agree with Opus — TPL is indeed priced for perfection at $390. Fair value likely lies closer to $250-290, as Opus suggests, given the structural margin compression and inflated growth expectations.

In reviewing the raw data for Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL), what stands out is the company's impressive revenue growth from $451 million in 2021 to $798 million in 2025, marking a 15% CAGR. However, this growth trajectory has not been smooth, with fluctuations linked to oil price movements, as seen with a revenue dip from $667 million in 2022 to $632 million in 2023 before rebounding. The Q1 2026 revenue of $236.8 million, if annualized, suggests a potential near-term revenue of $950 million, but given historical seasonality, this figure may be inflated. Net income margins have compressed from 66.5% in Q2 2024 to around 60% recently, indicating a shift towards lower-margin revenue streams like water services. With a PE ratio of 53.372 and a PS ratio of 24.8106, TPL's valuation appears stretched, particularly given the fixed nature of its 880,000 acres and reliance on external operators for production.

Opus argues that TPL is "Priced for Perfection," requiring significant future growth to justify its current market price of $390. I agree with this assessment. The stock's lofty valuation seems contingent on both continued Permian production growth and an optimistic view of TPL's water and surface revenue streams, which are diluting the high-margin royalty thesis. Opus points out a mix shift towards lower-margin revenue as a critical factor, and I concur that this is a significant concern. The market's implied 41.7% FCF growth expectation is ambitious, given the company's current trajectory and sector dynamics.

Where I diverge from Opus is in their strict dismissal of insider activity. Opus notes the series of one-share purchases as likely automated, yet even symbolic insider purchases can indicate confidence or an attempt to support the stock price. While not definitive evidence of value, this activity shouldn't be entirely discounted without further investigation into the nature of these transactions.

A careful skeptic might argue that TPL's high operating margins and debt-free status provide a margin of safety that justifies a premium valuation, particularly if oil prices remain stable or increase. The skeptic might also posit that the market is correctly pricing TPL's unique position as a perpetual royalty play with minimal capex requirements, viewing any potential growth in Permian production as a long-term tailwind rather than a short-term risk.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.352 · d1100787 · 2026-06-26 11:39:30