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OLDER Analysis Report
Aug 25, 2026
44 days ago · 100% complete
This report is 44 days old — newer filings and price moves since then are not reflected.
No quarterly filings we can read
Annual-only filer (20-F/40-F, last annual 2026-03-17, FY end 2025-12-31) — no quarterly XBRL, so an inflection is invisible until the next annual report. Held out under the no-quarterly coverage policy (2026-08-25).
This page shows our last published analysis, from Sep 10, 2026. It is not being updated, and new reports can't be run for this company.
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Oddity Tech Ltd. (ODD) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-09-12): Designation Low · Gem Score -45 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality -14 · Value -65 · Sentiment 42 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $32.45 vs $16.28 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysis — the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

Oddity Tech Ltd.

ODD NASDAQ
Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products
Tel Aviv, 6761304, Israel oddity.com Updated Aug 25, 12:00am
Price
$13.63
Market Cap
$628.7M
Employees
489
Beta
2.38
Avg Volume
764,300
CEO
Mr. Oran Holtzman

Oddity Tech Ltd. operates as a consumer tech company specializing in digital-first brands for the beauty and wellness industries worldwide. It leverages an AI-driven online platform powered by data science, machine learning, and computer vision to analyze consumer needs and deliver personalized beauty, wellness, and technology products. The company offers a diverse portfolio under the IL MAKIAGE and SpoiledChild brands, encompassing face and complexion products, eye, brow and lip makeup, tools, skincare, haircare, and supplements. Additionally, through ODDITY LABS, a biotechnology center, it employs AI-based molecule discovery technology to develop novel ingredients that enhance performance and outcomes in beauty and wellness solutions. Oddity Tech Ltd. serves consumers directly via its innovative e-commerce platform, focusing on precision-driven product recommendations and development in the competitive personal care market. Incorporated in 2013 and headquartered in Tel Aviv-Yafo, Israel, it plays a key role in transforming how beauty and wellness products are discovered and purchased digitally.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 2, 2026 1:33pm
Price Overview
Price at report time
$13.63
as of Aug 24, 6:41pm (44d ago)
Change · Aug 24
+0.40 (+3.06%)
Day Range
$13.11 – $13.69
52-Week Range
$9.25 – $64.23
50-Day MA
$14.59
200-Day MA
$22.77
Volume
34,503.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 44d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 56,656,685.00
Float 34,903,024.00
Free Float 61.6%
Normal free float — 61.6% of shares trade freely, ~38.4% held by insiders/institutions
Healthy float typical of established companies. Good liquidity for entering and exiting positions without major price impact.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 25, 2026 12:22am (44d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Aug 25, 2026 12:02am (44d ago)
Why there are no quarterly figures for Oddity Tech Ltd.

This company does not file structured financial statements with the U.S. SEC, so quarterly figures aren't available from our filings-based data engine. Annual figures shown here come from the sources that do cover it.

Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
P/E · trailing (TTM) (Price per dollar of earnings over the past year — not a run-rate or forward P/E)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
7.57
Stock Price: $13.63
EPS (Diluted): 1.80
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
2.11
Stock Price: $13.63
Total Equity: $396.50M
Shares: 61,525,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
2.87
Market Cap: $628.68M
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $402.21M
EBITDA: $129.46M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$371.6M
Market Cap: $628.68M
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $402.21M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
72.7%
Gross Profit: $588.71M
Revenue: $809.84M
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
14.7%
Operating Income: $118.77M
Revenue: $809.84M
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
13.7%
Net Income: $110.75M
Revenue: $809.84M
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
27.9%
Net Income: $110.75M
Total Equity: $396.50M
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
-1,696.3%
Operating Income: $118.77M
Tax Rate: 18.4%
Equity: $396.50M
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $402.21M
Zero debt — invested capital = equity minus cash (very efficient)
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
5.24
Current Assets: $601.80M
Current Liabilities: $114.83M
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.00
Short-Term Debt: $0.00
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $0.00
Total Equity: $396.50M
Zero debt — this company carries no debt obligations. Strongest possible score.
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$13.16
Revenue: $809.84M
Shares: 61,525,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$6.44
Total Equity: $396.50M
Shares: 61,525,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$1.36
Operating CF: $87.58M
CapEx: -$3.94M
Shares: 61,525,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
—
Last Dividend: $0.00
Stock Price: $13.63
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
—
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $110.75M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Sep 10, 2026 1:53pm
Compares ODD against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 25, 2026 12:02am (44d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $222.6M $324.5M $508.7M $647.0M $809.8M
Cost of Revenue $69.4M $106.5M $150.5M $178.7M $221.1M
Gross Profit $153.2M $218.1M $358.2M $468.3M $588.7M
Operating Expenses $133.7M $190.4M $283.9M $352.7M $469.9M
Operating Income $19.5M $27.7M $74.3M $115.6M $118.8M
Net Income $13.9M $21.7M $58.5M $101.5M $110.7M
EBITDA $23.5M $32.1M $82.9M $125.4M $129.5M
EPS $0.26 $0.41 $1.06 $1.77 $1.95
EPS (Diluted) $0.26 $0.39 $1.00 $1.64 $1.80
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 25, 2026 12:00am (44d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $28.8M $41.0M $36.5M $50.3M $402.2M
Total Current Assets — $145.9M $223.8M $223.4M $601.8M
Total Assets — $216.4M $404.9M $438.9M $1.1B
Current Liabilities — $90.4M $109.3M $124.8M $114.8M
Long-Term Debt — — — — —
Total Liabilities — $105.4M $121.8M $156.6M $741.3M
Total Equity $68.6M $111.0M $283.1M $282.3M $396.5M
Retained Earnings — $43.2M $101.8M $203.3M $314.0M
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 25, 2026 12:00am (44d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $10.2M $39.0M $87.5M $137.8M $87.6M
Capital Expenditure -$2.4M -$2.3M -$2.1M -$3.3M -$3.9M
Free Cash Flow $7.9M $36.7M $85.4M $134.5M $83.6M
Acquisitions (net) -$11.8M — -$23.2M — —
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) $-318,000 $-362,000 -$4.3M — —
Dividends Paid — — — — —
Stock Buybacks — — — -$147.3M —
Net Change in Cash -$9.2M $12.2M -$4.3M $11.6M $351.9M
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 25, 2026 12:02am (44d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +45.8% +56.7% +27.2% +25.2%
Gross Profit Growth +42.3% +64.3% +30.7% +25.7%
Operating Income Growth +41.8% +168.6% +55.5% +2.7%
Net Income Growth +56.1% +169.4% +73.4% +9.1%
EBITDA Growth +36.4% +158.5% +51.3% +3.2%
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable 18 computed · 6 not applicable
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Computed 2026-09-11 10:30
Why there is no ratio: No measured quarterly trajectory: this filer has no quarterly statements we can read (annual-only or foreign filer), so there is nothing honest to stress.
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for ODD — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-09-10 14:02

The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.

Shrinking A 15%+ compounder has snapped: the two most recent quarters show revenue -25.7% YoY and operating income swinging deeply negative, and the break looks demand/acquisition-driven rather than a timing artifact. conf 6/10
Share loss Category flat · The landscape file still shows a +26.8pp share gap (company +25.2% vs industry -1.6%), but that is a trailing-window artifact. On the freshest matched-quarter basis the company is -25.7% while the category is roughly flat to -1.3% — a ~24pp swing from share gain to share loss inside a few quarters.
Next 2 quarters
Shrinking
The deterioration is only two quarters old, comps remain against the strongest period of the prior cycle, and there is no visible catalyst that lands inside six months. Marketing pullback protects EPS but suppresses new-customer cohorts, which mechanically extends the revenue decline into the next two prints.
≈ inline with expectations
Year 1
Shrinking
A full-year lap of the broken cohorts, plus the spend required to stand up any new brand, keeps revenue negative and operating income near or below breakeven. Stabilization requires the acquisition funnel to be re-priced, which typically takes more than four quarters in DTC.
↓ below expectations
Years 2–3
Holding
The underlying asset — first-party data, high gross margin, and a demonstrated ability to launch — is real, and after a reset spend base the business can plausibly re-establish low-single-digit to modest growth from a lower revenue level. But a flat category and permanently higher acquisition costs cap the slope; the prior 15-26% compounding is unlikely to return without a genuinely new engine.
↓ below expectations
The creme: each rung's call measured against what's already printed (vs analyst estimates · vs guidance / FY consensus · vs price-implied growth) — expectations in print are already in the price, so only the variant margin can pay. Hover a rung's chip for the margin read.
Growth drivers
39 Data/ML product engine and repeat-purchase base — The core mechanism — computer-vision matching plus a large first-party dataset that lets Oddity launch and iterate SKUs faster than incumbents — is intact and has produced a 15.5% multi-year revenue CAGR with unusually low year-to-year volatility (0.0102). If the current air pocket is an acquisition-funnel problem rather than a product problem, the reorder base gives a floor.
31 New brand / adjacency pipeline — Growth historically arrived in step-functions from new brand launches rather than from same-brand compounding. A successful third-brand/telehealth-style launch is the single most plausible mechanism for re-acceleration in the 2-3 year window; the same optionality is why the trailing decline may not be terminal.
15 Industry gross-margin tailwind — Gross margins are expanding industry-wide (+2.0pp over 3 years) and Oddity's DTC structure captures full retail margin, so a topline stabilization converts to operating income quickly once marketing spend is re-based.
20 Cost discipline showing in EPS prints — Three of the last four reported EPS lines beat estimates (+67%, +43%, -2%, and one large miss), suggesting management can protect the bottom line faster than analysts model even while revenue erodes.
Growth risks
75 Topline break, not a soft quarter — Matched-quarter revenue -25.7% with operating income -126.8% and net income -109.7% is a collapse in operating leverage, not a mix issue. TTM revenue is still marginally positive (+4.95%) only because older, stronger quarters remain in the window — the exit rate is far worse than the trailing average.
61 Paid-acquisition dependency — The model buys customers through digital ad auctions; when CAC inflates or algorithmic discovery shifts, revenue and margin deteriorate simultaneously — exactly the twin signature visible in the latest two quarters. This is structural, not cyclical, and cost cuts cannot restore top-of-funnel volume.
43 Brand concentration — The bulk of revenue sits in one flagship brand; a maturing core with no fully scaled second engine means declines compound rather than offset. Beauty SKU cycles fade fast and the ML wrapper does not change category churn dynamics.
31 Category offers no lift — Household & personal products industry revenue is flat (0.3% CAGR), category median recent growth is -1.3%, and industry earnings are down 38.6% CAGR. There is no rising tide to carry a recovery; any growth must be taken from someone else.
43 Expectations gap — Price-implied growth of +13.9% against a house-projected -25.3% is a 39pp chasm; the structural rung has to clear a bar the current trajectory does not approach.
Beauty demand overall is not collapsing — the category is flat-ish with expanding gross margins but sharply compressing net margins, which is the signature of rising customer-acquisition and promotional costs across the whole industry. Oddity's model is the most leveraged version of that dynamic: it monetizes online discovery, and online discovery is being re-plumbed by AI assistants and shifting social platform economics, raising the cost and lowering the predictability of the funnel that produced its compounding. Macro is a secondary headwind — 10y at 4.8 pressures discretionary trade-up and makes step-function launch investment more expensive to fund. The bull case rests on the launch engine being a repeatable machine; the bear case rests on it being a series of hits. The last two quarters are the first hard evidence favoring the bear reading, though one bad cycle does not yet prove the engine is broken.
Growth position composite -56 near/structural split
ShrinkingStallingHoldingGrowingAccelerating
10Next 2 quarters · Shrinking
10Year 1 · Shrinking
50Years 2–3 · Holding
-56Composite (−100…+100)
A research prediction, not advice. Forward-graded: each rung is scored against the prints that follow it. Not an input to the GEM designation — track record first.
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-09-10 13:58:39
Verdict Overvalued but not the $6 disaster synthesis implies — fair value $10-12 on stabilized $680M revenue and 8% margins; wait for Q3'26 print to confirm whether the 25% YoY revenue collapse is trough or trend before touching either side.

The quarterly tape is the story here, and the models are burying the lede. ODD's Q2'26 revenue of $180.5M is down 25% from Q2'25's $241.1M, and Q1'26 at $197.9M is off 26% from Q1'25's $268.1M. That's not "5% recent YoY" — the momentum module is averaging stale comps. Trailing four quarters sum to roughly $679M vs. FY2025's $809.8M, meaning the business has contracted ~16% on a TTM basis while the models still cite a 15.5% revenue CAGR. Worse, TTM net income is around $15M (vs. $110.7M in FY25) — an 86% collapse — and Q1'26 printed a $21.4M loss despite $198M in revenue. At $16.28 and a $760M cap, you're paying ~50x collapsing TTM earnings for a business whose growth engine visibly seized in the last two quarters.

The pre-flight module calling this "high-growth" and citing "consistent revenue acceleration" is looking at 2021-2024 and hasn't updated for 2026. The rule-based "mature earner" tag is closer but still wrong — mature earners don't post -10.8% net margins one quarter and +7.1% the next on shrinking revenue. This is a deteriorating earner. The synthesis fair value of $5.06-$6.69 and Market Forces' "avoid at any price" are directionally right but the reasoning ("accrual accounting," "debt-fueled CAC") is speculative; the simpler read is that Oddity's IL Makiage/SpoiledChild cohort is churning and new brand launches (Brand 3) haven't scaled. The balance sheet is not a fortress the way the thesis eval claims — $584M debt vs. $402M cash is net debt of $182M against contracting EBITDA, and D/E of 2.2x on a consumer discretionary business (yes, it's classified defensive, but DTC beauty is cyclical) is not trivial.

The contrarian case: gross margin is genuinely 70%, FY25 FCF was $83.6M (implying ~9x P/FCF on trailing peak), and Q2'26 already showed a sequential margin snapback to +7.1% NI from -10.8%. If Q1'26's loss was a one-time inventory/launch write-down and the business stabilizes at $700M revenue with 10% net margins, that's $70M earnings and the stock is at ~11x — reasonable. Insider selling is 100% option-exercise-and-sell mechanics, which is neutral-to-slightly-negative but not the "unusual" red flag the module flags; these are small ticket sizes. And the narrative module's "cult coefficient: high" is stale — a stock down 75% from highs no longer has a cult; it has forced sellers.

Still, I can't get to synthesis's $5-7 fair value without assuming permanent impairment, and I can't get to the current $16.28 without assuming the Q1-Q2 revenue decline reverses. Splitting the difference: if TTM revenue holds ~$680M and normalized net margin recovers to 8% ($54M NI), 15x gets you $810M cap or ~$17/share — roughly where it trades. So the market is pricing a soft-landing scenario that requires the H2'26 comps to stop deteriorating. Given Q2'26 revenue was down 25% YoY and the model that generated the $5 fair value used inputs that assume this trend continues, the synthesis is too bearish; the pre-flight is too bullish. I partially dissent from synthesis: overvalued yes, but closer to $10-12 fair value than $6, and the asymmetry isn't attractive on either side until the next quarterly print clarifies whether the DTC beauty deceleration is cyclical or structural. Insider option-sales don't help but aren't decisive. I would not short at $16 given the FCF cushion and net cash-ish balance sheet, and I would not buy without seeing revenue stabilize.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-09-10 13:58:57
Verdict Fair to slightly overvalued at $16.28 — the 2025 earnings power is gone for now, and until revenue re-accelerates and operating margin turns convincingly positive again, fair value looks closer to $11-$14.

What jumps out is how violently the trailing-twelve-month picture has deteriorated versus the annual 2025 snapshot, and how badly some of the prebuilt takes misread that transition. On the stated TTM basis through 2026-06-30, revenue is $679.0M, down about 16% from the 2025 annual run rate of $809.8M, and net income is just $15.1M, which is a 2.2% net margin versus 13.7% in 2025. The quarterly sequence shows why: after two very strong quarters a year ago ($268.1M and $241.1M of revenue with 14.1% and 20.4% net margins), the last four came in at $147.9M, $152.7M, $197.9M, and $180.5M, with one outright loss quarter of -$21.4M. That is not a “mature earner”; it is a business that hit a wall. But it is also not the catastrophic value trap the harsher models imply. At a $0.76B market cap and roughly $182M net debt using the provided balance sheet, enterprise value is around $0.94B, or only about 1.4x this TTM revenue. For a beauty/personal care business still carrying a 70.0% gross margin and positive TTM earnings, that multiple is not obviously expensive.

The key issue is whether the earnings collapse is cyclical, lapping an exceptional prior period, or structural. I lean structural enough to stay cautious. TTM gross profit, using the 70.0% gross margin on $679.0M revenue, is still roughly $475M, which means the real damage happened below gross profit. The canonical TTM operating margin is -1.1%, implying operating loss despite high gross margin; that suggests either sharply higher customer acquisition, fulfillment, overhead, or some combination that the top line can no longer absorb. The conflict between annual 2025 operating income of $118.8M and TTM operating margin turning negative is exactly the sort of inflection that headline valuation screens miss. A stock on 62x TTM earnings with shrinking revenue is not cheap just because EV/revenue is low. If the right normalized earnings power is closer to the current $15M TTM than the old $100M+ level, then $760M equity value is still demanding.

I also don’t buy the most bearish machine narrative that this is “headed for structural losses as the model collapses.” The balance sheet is not distressed: current ratio is 3.45, cash is $402.2M, and even against $584.4M debt the company retains liquidity and flexibility. Free cash flow in the latest annual period was $83.6M on only $3.9M of capex, which is excellent conversion for an asset-light model; whatever has gone wrong recently, this is not a capital-intensive business burning cash to stand still. The revenue history from $222.6M in 2021 to $809.8M in 2025 also says there is real product-market fit somewhere underneath the recent stumble. So I reject both extremes: it is neither a software-like compounder deserving a premium narrative multiple, nor an obvious zero. It looks more like a good consumer brand platform that over-earned in 2025 and is now being repriced toward more ordinary economics.

The best argument against my caution is that the market cap is now only about 1.1x the latest annual free cash flow and roughly 0.9x annual net debt-adjusted gross profit, while the recent quarter returned to profitability with $12.9M of net income on $180.5M of sales after the ugly March quarter. If that March loss was an aberration and the June quarter is the new base, annualized earnings power could quickly recover into the $50M+ range, which would make the current price look undemanding at around 15x earnings. A smart bull would also point out that the top-line collapse may be overstated by tough comparisons to exceptionally large quarters last year; sequentially, revenue improved from $152.7M in December to $197.9M in March before settling at $180.5M in June, so the business may simply be normalizing rather than imploding. I weigh those points less heavily because the year-over-year math is still ugly, the margin structure has plainly worsened, and the TTM operating line crossing below zero is a serious warning sign until disproven.

What would change my mind is straightforward. If the next two quarters show revenue back above $190M consistently and net margin back into even the 8%-10% range, then the current valuation would start to look too low because the business could earn $60M-$75M again without needing heroic assumptions. I would also want confirmation that cash generation remains solid in the current TTM window, not just in the 2025 annual report, because that would rebut the concern that profitability deterioration is consuming cash. On the other hand, if revenue slips back toward $150M-$160M quarters or another loss quarter appears, then the right framing is not “cheap on sales” but “a shrinking premium-beauty brand with broken opex discipline,” and the stock should trade materially lower.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-09-10 13:59:45
Verdict Overvalued at $16.28; fundamentals support closer to $6–8 until growth and margins stabilize

The numbers describe a growth story that has already broken. Oddity’s revenue compound from $223M in 2021 to $810M in calendar 2025 was real and impressive; the trailing twelve months through mid-2026 reverse that arc. Summing the four most recent quarters yields only $679M of sales and $15.1M of net income—versus $111M of profit on the 2025 annual print. The year-over-year quarter comparisons are unambiguous: June 2026 revenue of $180.5M is 25% below the $241M printed a year earlier, and March 2026’s $198M is 26% below the prior-year $268M. Operating margin has flipped from double-digit positive to –1.1% on a TTM basis even while gross margin holds at a pristine 70%. That combination says the product unit economics are intact and the P&L is being crushed by operating spend, customer-acquisition costs, or both. Free cash flow of $84M in 2025 looks healthy in isolation, yet ROIC has gone negative on the TTM window and earnings quality flags are flashing for a reason—accruals and the gap between peak-year FCF and current run-rate profit are large. Net debt of roughly $182M against a $760M equity market cap is manageable only if cash generation stabilizes; with D/E above 2.2x it is not a fortress.

Valuation does not price the deterioration. At $16.28 the stock trades at 62× trailing earnings, 1.4× sales and nearly 1.9× EV/sales. Those multiples would be rich for a mid-teens compounder; they are indefensible for a business whose recent revenue is contracting mid-twenties percent and whose operating profit has disappeared. The prior quantitative fair-value work that lands near $6–7 is directionally consistent with a normalized mid-single-digit free-cash-flow yield on a shrinking top line. Insider activity—repeated option exercises immediately followed by sales—adds no support. The “AI-driven beauty platform” narrative that once justified a premium is now unsupported by either growth or returns on capital; the market is still paying a residual cult premium for a story the income statement has already abandoned.

The strongest counter-argument is that $16 already embeds a 75% drawdown from the highs and that a 70% gross-margin DTC franchise with $400M of cash can re-accelerate once marketing spend is recalibrated. If the June quarter’s sequential improvement and return to black ($12.9M NI) mark the bottom rather than a dead-cat bounce, and if TTM revenue merely flattens in the high-$600Ms while operating margin recovers to the low teens, the earnings power could re-approach $60–80M. On that path a mid-teens multiple would justify something closer to today’s price, and the EV/EBITDA multiple of ~8.5× on the old annual peak would look merely fair rather than expensive. Capital efficiency versus legacy beauty brands remains a genuine positive, and the balance-sheet liquidity buys time. That case requires believing the last four quarters are an aberration caused by temporary over-investment rather than structural saturation or rising CAC in the core channels—possible, but the magnitude of the revenue drop and the speed of the margin collapse make it the lower-probability reading.

What would flip the view is two consecutive quarters of positive organic revenue growth restoring the TTM run-rate above $750M together with operating margin back above 8%, or clear evidence that FCF is holding above $70M annualized while net debt is paid down. Absent that, the stock remains a value trap priced for a recovery the recent fundamentals have not begun to deliver.

Qwen Reading local experiment · off-panel
Independent reading · qwen3.8:27b on the local GPU · generated 2026-08-28 16:24:59 · 57.4s (82.2 tok/s) · replay of 2026-08-25 panel
Undervalued · conviction 3/5 · bull 7/10
followed the VERDICT/STANCE contract
Verdict Oddity at $13.63 is a $402M cash pile plus a 25%-growing, 73%-gross-margin DTC business priced at 0.28x EV/Revenue — the margin compression and growth deceleration are real but the downside is floored by the balance sheet, making this undervalued with a reasonable $18-22 fair value range on a 10-12x forward earnings basis.

The number that should stop you cold is the balance sheet. Oddity sits on $402.2 million of cash with zero debt, against a $630 million market cap. That means the enterprise value of the operating business is roughly $228 million, and you are buying $810 million of revenue at 73% gross margin for 0.28x sales. Even if I strip out every dollar of growth, every shred of the "AI personalization" narrative, and every biotech option on ODDITY LABS, I am paying 2.1x trailing earnings on an EV basis for a company that generated $110.7 million in net income last year and $83.6 million in free cash flow. The P/E of 7.6x, the P/S of 1.04x, the EV/EBITDA of 2.87x — these are multiples you see on mature, zero-growth consumer staples, not on a company that grew revenue from $222.6 million in 2021 to $809.8 million in 2025, a 26.2% CAGR. The market is pricing this as a dying DTC brand, and I think that's wrong, but I'll get to why it's not as wrong as the valuation synthesis's $39 fair value implies.

What genuinely concerns me, and what the prior models underweight, is the 2025 margin compression. Operating margin fell from 17.9% in 2024 to 14.7% in 2025, and net margin slipped from 15.7% to 13.7%. Revenue grew 25.2% but operating income grew only 2.8% ($115.6M to $118.8M). That is the signature of a company buying growth with customer acquisition spend that is not converting into proportional contribution margin. The FCF-to-net-income gap of roughly $27 million ($83.6M vs $110.7M) is consistent with working capital investment in a growing DTC operation, but the -1% FCF CAGR flagged in the momentum data, if it reflects a real trend rather than a one-year working capital swing, tells me the cash engine is not scaling as fast as the P&L suggests. The Pre-Flight Intelligence layer calls this "high-growth" and the Market Forces layer calls it "deteriorating cash generation" — both are reading the same data and reaching opposite conclusions, and I think the truth is that growth is real but the quality of that growth is degrading.

The insider tape is a minor negative but not a signal. The pattern — 23,929-share option exercises followed by ~9,600-share sales on a monthly cadence, plus a 100,000-share exercise-and-sell on June 30 — looks like routine post-vesting liquidity management, not a coordinated exit. At $13.63, a 100,000-share sale is $1.36 million, trivial against a $630 million float. I would flag it if I saw a 5-million-share block or a CEO tender offer, but this is noise. The ROIC figure of -1696% in the canonical metrics is a data artifact — with zero debt, $402 million in cash, and positive operating income, a negative ROIC is arithmetically impossible — and I'm discarding it entirely.

The strongest case against my read is the sector context and the narrative collapse. The market narrative layer correctly identifies this as a "fallen-angel" with "fragile" durability: the IPO-era story of AI-driven precision beauty and biotech molecule discovery has been discounted out, and what's left is a DTC cosmetics company in a sector where Revlon, Procter & Gamble's beauty division, and a dozen VC-backed startups are all fighting for the same shelf space. The bear case is that 25% growth is the last gasp, that CAC inflation will compress margins below 10% operating within two years, and that the "platform" language is marketing for what is fundamentally a single-brand (IL MAKIAGE) e-commerce operation. I take this seriously. But I weigh it differently because the downside is structurally limited: even if revenue flatlines at $810 million and operating margin compresses to 8%, that's $65 million of operating income on a $228 million EV, or 3.5x. The $402 million cash pile is a 64% floor on the equity value. You would need a 60% drawdown before the cash position becomes the dominant story, and I don't see a credible path to that in a company with zero debt and positive FCF.

What would flip me: a single quarter where revenue growth drops below 10% while operating margin simultaneously falls below 10%, which would confirm the CAC-spiral thesis and break the "growth is still real" assumption. A block insider sale exceeding 2 million shares, or a CEO/insider open-market purchase (which would actually confirm my read). And the ODDITY LABS pipeline: if the biotech/ingredient-discovery arm starts consuming more than $15 million annually in R&D without generating any revenue contribution, it becomes a cash drain that the current FCF profile can't absorb indefinitely. Conversely, if the next two quarters show revenue growth re-accelerating above 30% with operating margin stabilizing at 15%+, the 7.6x P/E becomes a screaming buy and my conviction jumps to 5.

Experiment only: this reading is not a panel seat and feeds nothing — compare it against the Claude, GPT and Grok readings above.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 1.7; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.3 vs panel · self: 3.0
GPT gpt-5.4 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.3 vs panel · self: 4.0
Grok grok-4.5 1.0
overvalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -0.7 vs panel · self: 2.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-09-10 14:03:08
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Pass at tape; revisit sub-$10 7/10
Great-DTC-brand narrative just got a fresh sugar-high, but the P&L cracked and the price is still 30-60% above any defensible value — pass at $16, interested only in the $8-10 zone.
The cruxWhether the TTM operating-margin collapse (17.9% to -1.1%) and negative FCF is deliberate reinvestment for Brand 3/4 or the first structural crack in the platform thesis — everything else follows from that.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from ODD's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwayLong Runway
DilutionStable Share Count
Earnings QualityGood Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
-14
Mixed
edge √Σ 101 · risk √Σ 116 · conf 6/10

ODD compounded revenue from $222M (2021) to $647M (2024) with expanding gross margin (68.8 to 72.4) and operating margin reaching 17.9 percent and $134.5M FCF in 2024 - genuinely elite unit economics for a young consumer brand. The TTM window (through 2026-06-30) is a sharp break: revenue growth stalled to $679M (about 5 percent over 2024), operating margin swung to -1.1 percent, net income collapsed to $15.2M, and FCF flipped to -$23.3M. Gross margin held at 70 percent, so the damage is below the gross line - opex outran revenue, consistent with heavy reinvestment (new brand launches, tech/AI, possibly physical footprint) rather than a demand collapse, but the magnitude is real.

Strengths 4
m55
Gross margin still ~70 percent
GM stayed at 70 percent in TTM despite the opex blowout, versus 68.8 in 2021 - the underlying product economics have not deteriorated.
m60
3x revenue scale in 3 years
Revenue tripled from $222.6M (2021) to $679.1M (TTM) with peak OpM of 17.9 percent in 2024 - evidence of real brand traction and operating leverage when management chooses to harvest it.
m45
Contained dilution
Diluted share CAGR 1.9 percent, SBC 5.1 percent of revenue, and buybacks 334 percent of SBC - share count actually fell from 61.9M (2024) to 57.7M (TTM), so per-share value is being protected.
m40
Clean earnings-quality checks
Accruals -4.9 percent of assets, Beneish M -2.33, no manipulation flags; OCF/NI 0.82x is acceptable given the profit compression.
Concerns 5
m75
Operating margin collapsed from 17.9 to -1.1
In one year OpM went from 17.9 percent to -1.1 percent and net income from $101.5M to $15.2M on essentially flat revenue - either aggressive reinvestment or genuine deleverage; either way the 2024 profit run-rate did not persist.
m60
FCF flipped negative
FCF went from +$134.5M (2024) to -$23.3M (TTM), a ~$158M swing. For a 'mature earner' classification this is a serious quality regression and the reason FCF quality is flagged Poor.
m45
Net debt position despite cash
Cash $193.2M but net cash -$344.1M implies ~$537M of debt/lease-like liabilities; Altman Z 2.17 sits in the grey zone. Not distress, but the balance sheet is no longer a cushion the way cash-only optics suggest.
m35
One-sided insider tape
11 sells / 0 buys over 12 months totalling $2.8M, with a concentrated pattern of option-exercise-and-sell by one insider (Drucker) across Aug-Sep 2026 - not massive dollars but zero conviction buying as fundamentals deteriorate.
m30
Growth deceleration
Revenue growth collapsed from 56 percent (2022-23) and 27 percent (2023-24) to roughly 5 percent in the TTM - the hyper-growth story has clearly slowed.
This looks like a genuinely well-built DTC beauty platform that just walked itself off the margin cliff - and I cannot yet tell from the numbers alone whether that is deliberate reinvestment for the next leg or the first crack in the model. The 70 percent gross margin and disciplined share count say the core is intact; the -1.1 percent OpM, negative FCF, net debt, and one-way insider tape say something changed in the last year that management owes shareholders a clear explanation for. Until the opex step-up is decoded, this is a Mixed business - previously trending toward Strong, now on watch.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • Whether the TTM opex jump is discretionary reinvestment (new brands, Brand 3, ODDITY LABS) or structural cost inflation - management commentary and segment detail in the latest 10-Q/earnings call
  • Composition of the ~$537M implied non-cash liabilities: real debt vs operating lease liabilities vs deferred consideration
  • Whether the insider option-exercise-and-sell pattern is under a 10b5-1 plan
  • Customer concentration and channel mix (DTC vs any wholesale/retail expansion)
  • Inventory and receivables trends behind the OCF/NI drop to 0.82x
  • Guidance on when reinvestment normalizes and margins recover
Valuation / Mispricing
-65
Rich
edge √Σ 25 · risk √Σ 103 · conf 6/10
Price $16.28 vs deserved ~$7-12 depending on how much credit you give the platform story; call it 30-60% overvalued, no margin of safety. attractive below $9.00

The e2e stack lands harshly: composite FV $5.06, signal-adjusted $6.69, with DCF at $4.71 and an EPV floor that is literally negative. Only the anchored-PE at $12.02 gets within shouting distance of the $16.28 tape, and even that implies roughly 26% downside. The market cap of $760M against a business that just printed negative operating margin and negative FCF in the TTM means investors are paying for the bull narrative - ML-driven product velocity, platform economics, Brand 3/4 optionality - not for what the P&L currently shows.

Cheap signals 1
m25
Anchored-PE closer to tape
Anchored-PE $12.02 suggests if you believe normalized earnings power returns, downside is more like 25% than 60% - a partial offset to the DCF/EPV bearishness.
Rich / priced-in 4
m68
Composite FV far below price
Signal-adjusted FV $6.69 vs $16.28 tape implies -59% - a wide, one-directional gap across three of four methods.
m55
EPV floor is negative
EPV at -$1.20 says on current earnings power there is no there there; the entire equity value rests on future growth executing.
m45
Margin crack just as multiple stays full
TTM OpM -1.1% and negative FCF while the market still assigns a growth/software multiple - priced for the crack to be transitory reinvestment, not structural.
m30
Narrative premium is doing the work
At 2.3x revenue in household/personal products, the multiple only holds if Brand 3/4 launches and AI-driven repeat rates prove the platform thesis; that is a heroic ask embedded in today's price.
I do not see a bargain here. Three of four valuation methods cluster in the $5-7 zone and the fourth, the most generous, still sits well below $16.28. The business quality is genuinely mixed and the margin line just broke, yet the market is still paying a growth-platform multiple. I would need this closer to $9 - roughly the midpoint between anchored-PE and composite FV - before the risk/reward gets interesting. Until then it is a story stock priced for the story to be right.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Whether the TTM margin compression is guided reinvestment (Brand 3/4 launch spend) or ongoing customer-acquisition-cost inflation
  • Brand 2 (Spoiled Child) revenue trajectory and contribution margin disclosure
  • Repeat purchase rate and cohort economics in the latest shareholder letter
  • Cash burn runway and any signals on capital raise or debt paydown
  • Guidance revisions - any cut would collapse the anchored-PE support
General Sentiment
+42
Tailwind
tail √Σ 107 · head √Σ 63 · conf 7/10

The dominant force on ODD right now is a narrative reset in its favor: a 26-28% single-day surge on a Q2 earnings/revenue beat and raised FY26 guide has re-energized the 'software company wearing beauty clothes' cult story, exactly the archetype (visionary-founder, high cult coefficient, strong intensity) that trades on belief rather than DCF. The market cheerfully looked through a 25% revenue decline in IL MAKIAGE because management handed the bulls what they needed - profit upside, sequential H2 improvement, and SpoiledChild traction to keep the platform-scaling thesis alive. With a 2.38 beta into a neutral tape (VIX 16.5, S&P barely off highs), the macro is not fighting the move; if anything, a calm regime lets a high-beta story stock run. Caveats keep this from being a Strong Tailwind: narrative durability is flagged fragile, longer-term momentum is negative (5% recent vs 15.5% CAGR, -9.3pp over 3y), and the price sits at a 143% premium to DCF - so any second data point that undercuts the platform story (another IL MAKIAGE miss, ad-account issues resurfacing) can flip sentiment hard. For now, though, the tape, the tone, and the news flow are all pushing up on this specific name.

Tailwinds 3
m78
Post-earnings narrative reset
A 66% EPS beat plus raised FY26 profit guide let the bull story - AI/data-driven product engine, SpoiledChild ramp, H2 reacceleration - recapture the microphone. On a high-cult, visionary-founder name, that is the single biggest sentiment lever and it just fired.
m62
Market willingly ignored a 25% revenue decline
Price surging ~27% on a top-line drop is a tell that positioning was bearish and the marginal holder wants to believe. That reflexive bid typically persists for several sessions to weeks in cult names.
m40
Neutral macro tape is not fighting a 2.38-beta name
VIX 16.5, S&P only 2% off highs, regime scored -7 (neutral). High-beta story stocks get punished in risk-off; in a calm tape they are free to run on idiosyncratic news, which is exactly what is happening.
Headwinds 2
m55
Fragile narrative durability + weakening long-term momentum
The story is flagged fragile with negative 3-year momentum trend (-9.3pp) and recent 5% vs 15.5% CAGR. One more disappointing print on IL MAKIAGE or ad-account execution and the cult premium unwinds fast given the 143% premium to DCF.
m30
Bear counter-frame is loaded and articulate
The 'beauty SKU flops dressed up as AI' bear thesis is well-formed and margin-compression concerns in the sector give shorts a ready script if the H2 reacceleration slips.
Net leans tailwind, and it is a real one, not just macro drift. A cult, founder-led story stock just got exactly the earnings narrative it needed and the tape rewarded it violently - that pressure typically has legs beyond the initial pop. But I am not calling Strong Tailwind because the underlying narrative is explicitly fragile, long-term momentum is deteriorating, and the price is stretched versus fundamentals, meaning a single bad data point can snap the mood. Short-term push up, medium-term pressure is contingent on H2 execution.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Whether IL MAKIAGE revenue actually inflects sequentially in Q3 as guided - the single biggest narrative crack risk
  • Analyst target revisions and estimate changes in the next 2-3 weeks post-print (magnitude of upgrades will confirm/deny the sentiment shift)
  • SpoiledChild and international brand traction data points that keep the 'platform' story alive
  • VIX/regime shift - a risk-off turn would hit this 2.38-beta name disproportionately
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
-56
Shrinking
edge √Σ 56 · risk √Σ 118 · conf 6/10

Beauty demand overall is not collapsing — the category is flat-ish with expanding gross margins but sharply compressing net margins, which is the signature of rising customer-acquisition and promotional costs across the whole industry. Oddity's model is the most leveraged version of that dynamic: it monetizes online discovery, and online discovery is being re-plumbed by AI assistants and shifting social platform economics, raising the cost and lowering the predictability of the funnel that produced its compounding. Macro is a secondary headwind — 10y at 4.8 pressures discretionary trade-up and makes step-function launch investment more expensive to fund. The bull case rests on the launch engine being a repeatable machine; the bear case rests on it being a series of hits. The last two quarters are the first hard evidence favoring the bear reading, though one bad cycle does not yet prove the engine is broken.

Growth drivers 4
m39
Data/ML product engine and repeat-purchase base
The core mechanism — computer-vision matching plus a large first-party dataset that lets Oddity launch and iterate SKUs faster than incumbents — is intact and has produced a 15.5% multi-year revenue CAGR with unusually low year-to-year volatility (0.0102). If the current air pocket is an acquisition-funnel problem rather than a product problem, the reorder base gives a floor.
m31
New brand / adjacency pipeline
Growth historically arrived in step-functions from new brand launches rather than from same-brand compounding. A successful third-brand/telehealth-style launch is the single most plausible mechanism for re-acceleration in the 2-3 year window; the same optionality is why the trailing decline may not be terminal.
m15
Industry gross-margin tailwind
Gross margins are expanding industry-wide (+2.0pp over 3 years) and Oddity's DTC structure captures full retail margin, so a topline stabilization converts to operating income quickly once marketing spend is re-based.
m20
Cost discipline showing in EPS prints
Three of the last four reported EPS lines beat estimates (+67%, +43%, -2%, and one large miss), suggesting management can protect the bottom line faster than analysts model even while revenue erodes.
Growth risks 5
m75
Topline break, not a soft quarter
Matched-quarter revenue -25.7% with operating income -126.8% and net income -109.7% is a collapse in operating leverage, not a mix issue. TTM revenue is still marginally positive (+4.95%) only because older, stronger quarters remain in the window — the exit rate is far worse than the trailing average.
m61
Paid-acquisition dependency
The model buys customers through digital ad auctions; when CAC inflates or algorithmic discovery shifts, revenue and margin deteriorate simultaneously — exactly the twin signature visible in the latest two quarters. This is structural, not cyclical, and cost cuts cannot restore top-of-funnel volume.
m43
Brand concentration
The bulk of revenue sits in one flagship brand; a maturing core with no fully scaled second engine means declines compound rather than offset. Beauty SKU cycles fade fast and the ML wrapper does not change category churn dynamics.
m31
Category offers no lift
Household & personal products industry revenue is flat (0.3% CAGR), category median recent growth is -1.3%, and industry earnings are down 38.6% CAGR. There is no rising tide to carry a recovery; any growth must be taken from someone else.
m43
Expectations gap
Price-implied growth of +13.9% against a house-projected -25.3% is a 39pp chasm; the structural rung has to clear a bar the current trajectory does not approach.
vs expectations: ~6m inline · 1y below · 2-3y below
The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
About flat +0.6% v0.6.0 View full prediction →

When we made this prediction on Sep 11, 2026, ODD was $18.79. We expect it to be $18.90 by Mar 2027, and we consider it great value under $9.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Sep 11, 2026.

Price when predicted$18.79
Our estimate for Mar 2027$18.90+0.6%
Great value below$9.00
Price history shown (6 Months)

Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.

Post-Report Due Diligence NOTES
The report is written. This is what its valuation stands on.
Analyzed Sep 11, 2026 · 10:30 26d ago
Read epv-floor ext-gem-composite anchored-pe · FY income statement, balance sheet
1 finding · $0, re-derived on each view

Evidence for a closer look, not a verdict — no score or designation on this page has been changed by it. Items marked material are ones where a conclusion above moves to the other side of the price.

Share divisor — basic vs diluted NOTE known case
as published 46,124,554 basic → alternative 61,525,000 diluted
Diluted share count is 33.4% higher than the divisor used. Basic is what is outstanding today; diluted is what a buyer of the whole equity faces. Every per-share fair value on this page is 25.0% lower on the diluted basis.
Price at analysis $16.28. This is where an investigation should start — it is not where one ends. Nothing here was checked against the filings, the tape, or the news; that is the investigator's job.
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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.760 · f4b58a28 · 2026-10-07 20:07:48