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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-10-07): Designation Low · Gem Score -19 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 66 · Value -76 · Sentiment 45 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $122.67 vs $195.97 at analysis
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
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every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.
Southern Copper Corporation
SCCO NYSESouthern Copper Corporation is a mining and metals company focused on the development, production, and exploration of copper and related byproducts. Headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona and incorporated in 1952, the company operates large-scale mining, smelting, and refining assets primarily in Peru and Mexico. Its operations are structured around Peruvian operations, Mexican open-pit operations, and Mexican underground mining operations, giving it a diversified asset base across major copper-producing regions. Southern Copper Corporation produces copper concentrates and refined copper cathodes, as well as molybdenum, zinc, silver, gold, lead, and sulfuric acid, which are sold to industrial customers worldwide. By integrating mining with smelting and refining, the company participates across the value chain of the copper industry and plays a significant role in supplying materials essential for construction, electrical infrastructure, manufacturing, and other sectors that rely on base and precious metals.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 5.24
Total Equity: $11.10B
Shares: 826,600,000
Total Debt: $6.75B
Cash: $4.30B
EBITDA: $7.87B
Total Debt: $6.75B
Cash: $4.30B
Revenue: $13.42B
Revenue: $13.42B
Revenue: $13.42B
Total Equity: $11.10B
Tax Rate: 36.4%
Equity: $11.10B
Total Debt: $6.75B
Cash: $4.30B
Current Liabilities: $2.15B
Long-Term Debt: $6.75B
Total Debt: $6.75B
Total Equity: $11.10B
Shares: 826,600,000
Shares: 826,600,000
CapEx: -$1.33B
Shares: 826,600,000
Stock Price: $195.16
Net Income: $4.35B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 11:58am (69d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $10.9B | $10.0B | $9.9B | $11.4B | $13.4B |
| Cost of Revenue | $3.9B | $4.6B | $4.7B | $4.8B | $5.4B |
| Gross Profit | $7.0B | $5.4B | $5.2B | $6.6B | $8.1B |
| Operating Expenses | $974.6M | $963.0M | $1.0B | $1.0B | $1.1B |
| Operating Income | $6.1B | $4.4B | $4.2B | $5.6B | $7.0B |
| Net Income | $3.4B | $2.6B | $2.4B | $3.4B | $4.3B |
| EBITDA | $6.9B | $5.2B | $5.0B | $6.4B | $7.9B |
| EPS | $4.39 | $3.41 | $3.14 | $4.34 | $5.24 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $4.39 | $3.41 | $3.14 | $4.34 | $5.24 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 5, 2026 9:33am (63d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $3.0B | $2.1B | $1.2B | $3.3B | $4.3B |
| Total Current Assets | $6.1B | $5.2B | $4.4B | $6.2B | $8.4B |
| Total Assets | $18.3B | $17.3B | $16.7B | $18.7B | $21.4B |
| Current Liabilities | $2.3B | $1.2B | $1.4B | $2.2B | $2.1B |
| Long-Term Debt | $6.2B | $6.3B | $6.3B | $5.8B | $6.8B |
| Total Liabilities | $10.1B | $9.1B | $9.2B | $9.5B | $10.3B |
| Total Equity | $8.2B | $8.1B | $7.5B | $9.2B | $11.1B |
| Retained Earnings | $7.8B | $7.7B | $7.0B | $6.8B | $5.8B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 11:58am (69d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $4.3B | $2.8B | $3.6B | $4.4B | $4.8B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$892.3M | -$948.5M | -$1.0B | -$1.0B | -$1.3B |
| Free Cash Flow | $3.4B | $1.9B | $2.6B | $3.4B | $3.4B |
| Acquisitions (net) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | — | -$300.0M | — | — | $493.8M |
| Dividends Paid | -$2.5B | -$2.7B | -$3.1B | -$1.6B | -$2.5B |
| Stock Buybacks | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Change in Cash | $818.4M | -$932.3M | -$918.2M | $2.1B | $1.0B |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 11:58am (69d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | -8.1% | -1.5% | +15.5% | +17.4% |
| Gross Profit Growth | -23.3% | -3.5% | +26.6% | +22.3% |
| Operating Income Growth | -26.9% | -5.5% | +32.5% | +26.1% |
| Net Income Growth | -22.4% | -8.1% | +39.2% | +28.3% |
| EBITDA Growth | -23.9% | -3.9% | +27.4% | +23.0% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 5, 2026 9:33am (63d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | $0.98 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-10 | $0.99 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-12 | $0.88 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-15 | $0.78 | — | — | — |
| 2025-05-02 | $0.67 | — | — | — |
| 2025-02-11 | $0.70 | — | — | — |
| 2024-11-06 | $0.70 | — | — | — |
| 2024-08-09 | $0.60 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-12 | $0.79 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-07 | $0.98 | — | — | — |
| 2023-08-08 | $0.98 | — | — | — |
| 2023-05-08 | $0.98 | — | — | — |
| 2023-02-13 | $0.98 | — | — | — |
| 2022-11-08 | $0.49 | — | — | — |
| 2022-08-10 | $0.74 | — | — | — |
| 2022-05-16 | $1.23 | — | — | — |
| 2022-02-14 | $0.98 | — | — | — |
| 2021-11-09 | $0.98 | — | — | — |
| 2021-08-11 | $0.89 | — | — | — |
| 2021-05-10 | $0.69 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Computed 2026-09-17 18:48A +1σ run of quarters pays -8%; a −1σ run costs 67%. Ratio -0.1:1 (μ 24.9%, σ 18.0% , 16 pairs).
Older method (repeat-worst-quarter): -0.1 : 1
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($195.97) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +44% | 35.0% | $185.31 | -5% |
| Base — stabilizes | +29% | 35.0% | $125.43 | -36% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +15% | 30.6% | $73.19 | -63% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | +15% | 35.0% | $83.70 | -57% |
| Upside — a +1σ run of quarters (v2) | +43% | 35.0% | $179.59 | -8% |
| Stress — a −1σ run of quarters (v2) | +7% | 35.0% | $65.02 | -67% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-09-17 17:03The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.
Claude Reading
The raw quarterly trajectory here is genuinely striking and I want to sit with it before agreeing with the "overvalued" verdict. Revenue has gone from $2.93B in Q3'24 to $4.29B in Q2'26 — that's 46% growth in seven quarters — while net margin expanded from 30.7% to 39.0%. NI more than doubled from ~$900M to $1.67B quarterly, which annualizes to roughly $6.7B run-rate versus the $4.35B FY25 print. At $165B market cap, forward P/E on run-rate earnings is ~25x, not the 28.4x TTM figure. That is not obviously egregious for a Tier-1 copper producer with 49.9% ROE and 38% ROIC — those returns are extraordinary and the balance sheet ($4.3B cash vs $6.75B debt, 5.0x current ratio) is fortress-grade.
That said, the synthesis is directionally right for the wrong reason. The bearish case is not that SCCO is a bad business — it's that Q2'26's 39% net margin and $4.29B revenue almost certainly reflect a copper price spike, not a step-change in unit economics. Look at 2021: revenue was $10.93B with 64% gross margin during that copper peak, then collapsed to $9.90B/53% gross by 2023 when copper normalized. The 22.5% revenue CAGR and 43% earnings CAGR the momentum module cites are measured off a cyclical trough. Extrapolating those is exactly the error the narrative layer warns about — this is a commodity price story dressed up as a growth story. Mid-cycle copper at $3.75/lb probably puts normalized earnings closer to $4.5–5B, or ~$22–25/share, implying a $130–160 fair value range that brackets the synthesis composite of $135.
Where I part company with the models: the "Market Tailwinds" signal from market-forces contradicts the "Macro Headwinds" secondary signal, and neither one is actionable without a copper price view. The bull case (structural electrification deficit) and bear case (Chinese demand + recession) are both defensible and neither is falsifiable in the next four quarters. The insider activity described as "neutral" is actually mildly bearish — five small sales in May-June 2026 near the top with no open-market buys, though the volumes (400 shares) are trivial and probably tax-related on the concurrent awards. Not a signal. The classification of "mature earner" is wrong; this is a cyclical producer with mature assets — those are different archetypes and matter for how you weight the trailing multiple.
I agree with the synthesis direction (overvalued) but I think $135 fair value is too low and the -31% downside is overstated. The bear composite ignores that even at $3.75/lb normalized copper, SCCO's asset base, cost curve, and Buenavista/Tia Maria growth optionality justify a 20–22x mid-cycle multiple, which gets you to $160–175. At $196, you're paying a 15–25% premium to a reasonable normalized value, not 45%. That's a "don't chase, wait for a 15% pullback" setup, not a short. The real risk isn't valuation — it's Peruvian political risk and the binary permit outcomes on Tia Maria/Los Chancas, which the narrative layer correctly flags as "binary environmental/social license threats." Those are unhedgeable and argue against paying peak multiples on peak earnings.
GPT Reading
What jumps out first is that this is not a troubled miner being discovered; it is an already fully celebrated cash machine priced like the good times are durable. On the trailing twelve months through 2026-06-30, Southern Copper generated about $15.8 billion of revenue and $5.66 billion of net income, implying a remarkable 35.9% net margin. Quarterly progression has been relentlessly strong: revenue rose from $3.05 billion in 2025-06 to $4.29 billion in 2026-06, while net income climbed from $977 million to $1.67 billion and margin expanded from 32.0% to 39.0%. That is exceptional operating leverage, and it explains why the stock has been bid to a $165 billion market cap. But for a copper producer, those margins are exactly the warning sign on valuation: they look more like a favorable point in the commodity cycle than a steady-state earning power. Paying 28.5x TTM earnings, 10.2x sales, and 16.6x EV/EBITDA for a miner requires confidence not only that copper stays high, but that today’s extraordinary conversion of revenue into profit largely persists.
The business quality itself is undeniable. Gross margin at 63.8%, operating margin at 56.9%, ROIC at 38.0%, and ROE near 50% are elite by any standard, especially for basic materials. The balance sheet is also not the issue: $6.75 billion of debt against $4.30 billion of cash leaves manageable net debt, current ratio is above 5x, and 2025 free cash flow of $3.43 billion after $1.33 billion of capex shows the assets throw off real cash, not just accounting earnings. Even using the more recent run-rate implied by quarterly earnings, cash generation is likely improving further. But the equity valuation has detached from that strength. At roughly 29x TTM earnings, investors are capitalizing cyclical profits more like a compounder than a miner. Even if I generously assume current TTM earnings power of roughly $6.8-$7.0 per share persists, the stock at $195.97 still implies little room for copper price normalization, cost inflation, tax/regulatory friction, or production setbacks in Peru and Mexico.
The key story in the raw numbers is not merely growth, but margin expansion doing most of the heavy lifting. Revenue on the quarterly series is up about 33% year over year in the latest quarter, yet net income is up about 71% versus the $976.7 million posted in 2025-06, because margins widened dramatically. That kind of earnings torque is wonderful on the way up and brutal on the way down. The annual history makes this even clearer: revenue was $10.93 billion in 2021, then dipped to $9.90 billion in 2023 before recovering to $13.42 billion in 2025; net income similarly moved from $3.41 billion in 2021 down to $2.43 billion in 2023 and back to $4.35 billion in 2025. In other words, this is not a linear grower despite the recent TTM surge. The market is currently rewarding SCCO as though the latest twelve months have revealed a new level of normalized profitability. I think they have more likely revealed what happens when copper pricing and operating leverage align very favorably.
The best counterargument is straightforward and serious: maybe “cyclical” is the wrong frame this time. If global electrification, grid spending, and supply constraints really keep copper structurally tighter for longer, then SCCO’s recent earnings are not peak but a bridge to even higher earnings. The company’s asset quality and cost position could justify a premium, and with TTM operating margin near 57% and ROIC near 38%, a conventional miner multiple may understate the value of scarce tier-one copper exposure. The latest two quarters also show no sign of rollover—revenue held above $4.2 billion in both quarters and net income improved sequentially from $1.58 billion to $1.67 billion. A bull would say the market cap is high because the market is looking at the next several years, not the last several quarters. I weigh that less heavily because even if the structural copper thesis is right, the present valuation already discounts a lot of it. A 2.0% dividend yield is not compensating you for commodity, jurisdictional, and multiple risk, and miners with this much narrative embedded can de-rate sharply on merely “less great” numbers.
What would change my mind is evidence that the current earnings base is becoming durable independent of spot copper exuberance. If SCCO can sustain quarterly revenue above $4.0 billion and quarterly net income above $1.4-$1.5 billion through a softer macro patch, while keeping net margin above 34% and free cash flow meaningfully above the 2025 level of $3.43 billion even with capex rising, then I would have to accept that normalized earnings power has stepped up. Conversely, if revenue slips back toward the low-$3 billions or margins retreat to the high-20s/low-30s that were common in prior years, the stock will look unmistakably over-earning and overvalued. At $196, I need proof that this is a structurally repriced copper franchise, not a superb miner being valued off unusually fat cycle margins.
Grok Reading
The raw numbers describe a copper producer operating at the top of its historical form. Trailing-twelve-month revenue through mid-2026 runs roughly $15.8B (summing the four most recent quarters of $4.29B, $4.25B, $3.87B and $3.38B), up sharply from the $13.42B full-year 2025 print and the $11.43B of 2024. Net income has accelerated even faster: the same four quarters deliver about $5.67B of earnings versus $4.35B in calendar 2025 and $3.39B the year before, with sequential net margins climbing from the low-30s into the high-30s (39% in the June 2026 quarter). Operating margins near 57% and gross margins above 63% are elite for any miner; free-cash-flow generation of $3.43B against only $1.33B of capex and a net-debt position that is modest relative to cash flow ($6.75B gross debt versus $4.3B cash) confirm the business is converting the copper price environment into real cash at an exceptional rate. ROE near 50% and ROIC near 38% are the quantitative signature of a low-cost, long-life asset base being fully utilized.
That operating excellence is already fully—and then some—reflected in the stock. At $195.97 the equity carries a 28.5× trailing P/E, 10.2× sales, 12.7× book and 16.6× EV/EBITDA. For a pure-play copper producer those multiples sit well above mid-cycle norms even after acknowledging the quality of the Peruvian and Mexican reserves. The valuation synthesis fair-value range around $123–$135 is directionally correct: it simply normalizes copper prices and margins back toward levels that have historically been sustainable rather than peak. The 22–33% revenue growth and 43–57% earnings growth rates are real, but they are almost entirely price- and margin-driven rather than volume-driven; once copper stops rising, the earnings base that supports a $165B market cap will shrink. The narrative layer correctly identifies the gap—the roughly 45% premium to DCF is a multi-year bet that $4–5/lb copper is the new normal, not a temporary spike.
The strongest counter-argument is that the market is rationally capitalizing a structural, not cyclical, copper deficit. Electrification, grid build-out and constrained new mine supply could keep realized prices elevated for years, in which case SCCO’s cost position and reserve life would justify a permanently higher earnings power and therefore a higher multiple. Balance-sheet fortress metrics (current ratio >5, debt-to-equity 0.63) and a 53% payout ratio that still leaves ample reinvestment capacity give the bull case a durable foundation; if margins stay in the mid-to-high 30s and free cash flow continues compounding at anything near the recent 50%+ CAGR, today’s price could prove merely expensive rather than wrong. Insider activity is noise—small sales after routine awards—and does not contradict that view.
I still weigh the counter-case as secondary. Commodity equities that trade at nearly 30× peak-cycle earnings have a long history of mean-reverting once the commodity price plateaus, and the decelerating quarterly revenue trend already hints that the easiest gains are behind the company. A sustained copper price above $4.50/lb accompanied by continued volume growth and margins holding above 35%, or a meaningful derating of the shares toward $150, would force a reassessment; absent those, the risk-reward at $196 is skewed to the downside.
Qwen Reading local experiment · off-panel
The most glaring contradiction in this dataset is the disconnect between the "Mature Earner" classification and the explosive growth metrics. The rule-based model labels SCCO as a mature earner with 0.63 confidence, yet the data shows a 43.4% earnings CAGR and a 54.1% FCF CAGR over the last five years. This is not the profile of a stagnant utility-like miner; it is a high-growth asset in the midst of a commodity repricing. The quarterly data confirms this acceleration: net income has climbed from $976.7M in Q2 2025 to $1.67B in Q2 2026, a 71% year-over-year jump. The market is not pricing in "sustained elevated copper prices" as a static assumption; it is reacting to a fundamental shift in the cost curve where SCCO’s low-cost Peruvian and Mexican assets are capturing an outsized share of the margin expansion. The 39% net margin in the most recent quarter is historically unprecedented for this company, suggesting that the "peak-cycle" warning from the valuation synthesis is premature. If copper prices normalize to $3.50/lb, margins will compress, but they will likely remain well above the 2021-2023 averages due to operational efficiencies and the sheer scale of the El Teniente and other flagship assets.
The valuation metrics presented—28.45x P/E and 12.71x P/B—are misleading if viewed in isolation without adjusting for the earnings trajectory. The "overvalued" verdict from the valuation synthesis, which pegs fair value at $134.97, relies on a DCF that likely assumes a mean-reversion to historical copper prices. However, the free cash flow yield is the more critical metric here. With $3.43B in FCF against a $165.44B market cap, the FCF yield is roughly 2.07%. This is low, but it is a trailing figure. The forward FCF, given the 54% CAGR, suggests a rapidly shrinking denominator for this yield. The balance sheet is fortress-like: $4.30B in cash against $6.75B in debt, resulting in a net debt position that is manageable and a current ratio of 5.06. This financial flexibility allows SCCO to maintain its 53% payout ratio while still funding the $1.33B annual capex required to sustain production. The "Macro Headwinds" signal is a red herring; SCCO’s cost advantage insulates it from the macro volatility that would crush higher-cost producers. The real risk is not macro, but jurisdictional. The "binary environmental/social license threats" cited in the market forces section are the only credible threat to the thesis, but the data shows no operational disruption yet.
The strongest case against this bullish read is the sheer magnitude of the narrative premium. The stock is trading at a 45% premium to the DCF anchor, which is entirely dependent on the "structural supply deficit" thesis holding up. If Chinese demand weakens or if new supply from the DRC or Chile comes online faster than expected, the 39% net margin could evaporate quickly. The insider activity, while neutral, shows a pattern of small sales (400 shares, 100 shares) rather than large block trades, which is typical for executives managing personal liquidity rather than signaling a lack of confidence. However, the "decelerating" revenue trend noted in the secondary signals is a warning sign. Revenue growth is slowing (32.8% YoY) even as margins expand, suggesting that the growth is coming from price, not volume. If copper prices plateau, the revenue growth will stall, and the multiple will have to do all the work. The 28x P/E is high for a commodity producer, even a high-quality one, and leaves little room for error.
What would change my mind is a significant drop in copper prices below $3.80/lb sustained for two quarters, or a major operational disruption in Peru. If the Q3 2026 earnings report shows a net margin below 30% or a revenue decline, the "structural" thesis will be in serious jeopardy. Conversely, if the company announces a major expansion or a special dividend, it would validate the high valuation. The key is to watch the copper price and the company’s ability to maintain its cost advantage. The data suggests that SCCO is a high-quality asset in a favorable commodity cycle, but the valuation is stretched. I am not convinced that the market is overpaying, but I am convinced that the margin for error is thin.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
SCCO is executing at an elite level for a miner: revenue grew from $10.58B (2022) to $15.79B (TTM 2026), a ~49% lift, while gross margin expanded from 59.6% to 63.8% and operating margin from 50.3% to 56.9%. Net income nearly doubled from $2.93B to $5.68B, and FCF rose from $2.71B to $5.10B. Operating margins near 57% are extraordinary for a commodity producer and point to top-decile ore grades and cost position at Buenavista/Cuajone/Toquepala.
Verify before trusting this (6)
- Cash cost per pound of copper vs peers to confirm cost-curve position
- Grupo Mexico ownership stake and related-party transactions in the latest 20-F/10-K
- Capex plans for Tia Maria, El Arco, Los Chancas and impact on future FCF
- Reserve life and grade trajectory at Buenavista and Peruvian mines
- Source of ~50M share increase since 2022 — equity issuance vs stock comp vs conversions
- Royalty/tax regime exposure in Peru and Mexico given political risk
The e2e composite lands at $122.67 and the signal-adjusted FV at $134.97, implying roughly -31% downside from $195.97. The DCF ($115.49) and EPV floor ($44.04) both sit well below the tape; only the anchored P/E ($215.64) supports the price, and that method simply capitalizes a mid-cycle-plus earnings print at a peer multiple, which is exactly the trap in a late-cycle commodity name. Earnings quality is clean (score 3), so there is no forensic haircut to apply, but that cuts both ways: the earnings are real, they are just cyclically elevated.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Realized copper price assumption embedded in current EPS run-rate
- Grupo Mexico dividend/capex signaling on new project timelines (Tia Maria, Los Chancas)
- Sensitivity of FCF to a $0.50/lb move in copper
- Any guidance on 2026-2027 volume ramp that could re-rate the DCF
The dominant force on SCCO right now is the copper narrative, not the macro tape. LME copper printed an all-time high of $14,694/t on Sept 8, Chile just posted its weakest output in 19 years, and the electrification/AI-power-demand story is doing exactly what a late-cycle commodity narrative does: pulling in momentum money and rewarding the highest-quality, longest-reserve-life pure-play. SCCO is that pure-play, and the tape shows it - 22.5% long-run CAGR accelerating to 32.8% recently, repeated single-day surges (+8.7%, +4.9%, +3.7%) tied directly to copper prints and record earnings.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Whether copper holds above prior record levels or rolls over on China demand data
- Any escalation of copper tariff policy that spooked the sector on Sept 10
- VIX breaking above 20 and risk-off regime hardening beyond a 1-day print
- Analyst target revisions catching up to spot copper vs staying anchored to normalized prices
- Chilean and Peruvian supply headlines - further disruption extends the tailwind
Copper is the one commodity where the demand story (grid buildout, electrification, data-center power infrastructure) and the supply story (permitting friction, falling grades, decade-long lead times) point the same direction. That supports a higher price floor than prior cycles, which is what SCCO's earnings power keys off. But the world is also delivering macro headwinds — a 5% 10-year, a flattish curve, and uncertain Chinese construction demand — which is the classic setup for a violent mid-cycle price air pocket even inside a structurally tight decade. SCCO's distinctive position is that it does not need a supercycle to grow tonnes: it has permitted, funded, low-cost expansions. What it cannot control is the price multiplier applied to those tonnes, and that multiplier is doing most of the current work.
When we made this prediction on Sep 18, 2026, SCCO was $194.40. We expect it to be $178.00 by Mar 2027, and we consider it great value under $135.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Sep 18, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.
Post-Report Due Diligence NOTES
Evidence for a closer look, not a verdict — no score or designation on this page has been changed by it. Items marked material are ones where a conclusion above moves to the other side of the price.
trailing_eps
flips down 10%
adjusted_pe
flips down 10%