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AGING Analysis Report
Sep 17, 2026
20 days ago · 100% complete
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for AppLovin Corporation Class A Common Stock (APP) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-10-07): Designation Watch · Gem Score -8 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 83 · Value -68 · Sentiment -64 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $147.86 vs $321.54 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysis — the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

AppLovin Corporation Class A Common Stock

APP NASDAQ
Communication Services · Advertising Agencies
Palo Alto, CA 94304, United States applovin.com Updated Sep 17, 5:00pm
Price
$321.54
Market Cap
$108.0B
Employees
876
Beta
2.49
Avg Volume
5,822,406
CEO
Mr. Adam Arash Foroughi

AppLovin Corporation Class A Common Stock represents equity in AppLovin Corporation, a Palo Alto, California-based advertising technology company. The company develops and operates software and artificial intelligence-powered marketing solutions that help businesses reach, measure, and monetize audiences across mobile and connected TV environments. Its current product suite includes tools for user acquisition, in-app monetization, campaign management, analytics, and streaming-advertising distribution, serving advertisers, app developers, publishers, and digital content companies. AppLovin’s business is organized around advertising technology and app-related services, giving it a role in both the demand and supply sides of digital advertising. The Class A common stock is the company’s primary publicly traded equity class and is used by investors to gain exposure to its operating performance and capital structure.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 6, 2026 12:15am
Price Overview
Price at report time
$321.54
as of Sep 17, 5:00pm (20d ago)
Change · Sep 17
-5.02 (-1.54%)
Day Range
$314.84 – $333.43
52-Week Range
$297.50 – $745.61
50-Day MA
$361.44
200-Day MA
$476.89
Volume
3,391,467.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 20d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 335,291,521.00
Float 253,431,202.00
Free Float 75.6%
Normal free float — 75.6% of shares trade freely, ~24.4% held by insiders/institutions
Healthy float typical of established companies. Good liquidity for entering and exiting positions without major price impact.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Sep 17, 2026 5:09pm (20d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Sep 17, 2026 5:00pm (20d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics TTM · through Jun 30, 2026
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Sep 17, 2026 5:02pm
P/E · trailing (TTM) (Price per dollar of earnings over the past year — not a run-rate or forward P/E)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
24.71
Stock Price: $321.54
EPS (Diluted): 13.01
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
34.45
Stock Price: $321.54
Total Equity: $3.16B
Shares: 338,911,333
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
20.17
Market Cap: $108.02B
Total Debt: $3.52B
Cash: $3.05B
EBITDA: $5.42B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$109.4B
Market Cap: $108.02B
Total Debt: $3.52B
Cash: $3.05B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
88.5%
Gross Profit: $6.04B
Revenue: $6.83B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
77.4%
Operating Income: $5.29B
Revenue: $6.83B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
64.6%
Net Income: $4.41B
Revenue: $6.83B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
203.7%
Net Income: $4.41B
Total Equity: $3.16B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
123.5%
Operating Income: $5.29B
Tax Rate: 15.4%
Equity: $3.16B
Total Debt: $3.52B
Cash: $3.05B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
4.30
Current Assets: $5.39B
Current Liabilities: $1.25B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
1.11
Short-Term Debt: $0.00
Long-Term Debt: $3.52B
Total Debt: $3.52B
Total Equity: $3.16B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$20.15
Revenue: $6.83B
Shares: 338,911,333
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$9.33
Total Equity: $3.16B
Shares: 338,911,333
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$13.36
Operating CF: $4.53B
CapEx: $0.00
Shares: 338,911,333
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
—
Last Dividend: $0.00
Stock Price: $321.54
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
—
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $4.41B
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Sep 17, 2026 5:02pm
Compares APP against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Sep 17, 2026 5:00pm (20d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $2.8B $2.8B $3.3B $4.7B $5.5B
Cost of Revenue $988.1M $1.3B $1.1B $1.2B $665.1M
Gross Profit $1.8B $1.6B $2.2B $3.5B $4.8B
Operating Expenses $1.7B $1.6B $1.6B $1.7B $663.7M
Operating Income $150.0M -$47.8M $648.2M $1.9B $4.2B
Net Income $35.4M -$192.7M $356.7M $1.6B $3.3B
EBITDA $581.1M $499.3M $1.1B $2.3B $4.3B
EPS $0.10 $-0.52 $1.01 $4.68 $9.84
EPS (Diluted) $0.09 $-0.52 $0.98 $4.53 $9.75
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Sep 17, 2026 5:00pm (20d ago)
Metric 2022 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents — $1.1B $502.2M $741.4M $2.5B
Total Current Assets — $1.9B $1.6B $2.3B $4.4B
Total Assets — $5.8B $5.4B $5.9B $7.3B
Current Liabilities — $579.0M $944.1M $1.1B $1.3B
Long-Term Debt — $3.2B $3.1B $3.6B $3.6B
Total Liabilities — $3.9B $4.1B $4.8B $5.1B
Total Equity — $1.9B $1.3B $1.1B $2.1B
Retained Earnings — -$1.2B -$813.0M $599.2M $1.7B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Sep 17, 2026 5:00pm (20d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $361.9M $412.8M $1.1B $2.1B $4.0B
Capital Expenditure -$1.4M $-662,000 -$4.2M -$4.8M —
Free Cash Flow $360.5M $412.1M $1.1B $2.1B —
Acquisitions (net) -$1.2B -$1.3B -$63.9M — —
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) -$719.8M -$25.8M -$102.7M $389.6M $0
Dividends Paid — — — — —
Stock Buybacks $0 -$338.9M -$1.2B -$981.3M -$2.2B
Net Change in Cash $2.3B -$1.5B -$578.3M $239.3M $1.7B
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Sep 17, 2026 5:00pm (20d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +0.9% +16.5% +43.4% +16.4%
Gross Profit Growth -13.5% +42.5% +59.3% +35.9%
Operating Income Growth -131.9% +1,456.3% +189.0% +121.6%
Net Income Growth -643.8% +285.1% +342.9% +111.0%
EBITDA Growth -14.1% +127.8% +104.2% +87.2%
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable 18 computed · 6 not applicable
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Computed 2026-10-02 02:03
-0.6 : 1 +1σ upside vs −1σ downside, from this company's own quarterly history
A +1σ run of quarters pays -50%; a −1σ run costs 86%. Ratio -0.6:1 (μ 40.8%, σ 40.3% , 16 pairs).
Older method (repeat-worst-quarter): 0.0 : 1
CaseGrowthMarginFair valuevs price ($321.54)
Bull — recovery +82% 35.0% $324.32 +1%
Base — stabilizes +55% 35.0% $179.49 -44%
Bear — keeps slipping +27% 35.0% $92.87 -71%
Stress — last quarter repeats -21% 35.0% $23.47 -93%
Upside — a +1σ run of quarters (v2) +50% 35.0% $161.02 -50%
Stress — a −1σ run of quarters (v2) +1% 35.0% $45.04 -86%
The next quarters keep the trajectory of the worst recent matched quarter (ending 2025-12-31) — growth stays at -21.2% and margins bend by the same profit-vs-revenue ratio (×1.10). Stress is a trajectory, not a prediction — it answers "what if the ship's current heading simply continues," which history says is the case to respect.
Why this is appearing: this company files quarterly, so its recent trajectory could be measured rather than assumed — the engine matched Jun 2026, Mar 2026 against the same quarters one year earlier and found revenue +55.8% · operating income +63.2% · net income +77.1% year-over-year. That measured heading is what the stress case extends forward. Of those, the stress case extends the worst matched quarter — the one ending Dec 31, 2025 (revenue -21.2%, operating income +107.3% YoY) — not the average. Data measured through Jun 30, 2026 — this card recalculates automatically when the next quarterly filing is ingested. Companies without quarterly filings (many foreign listings) never show this card: with no measured trajectory, there is nothing honest to repeat.
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for APP — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-09-17 17:11

The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.

Accelerating A pure-play AI ad engine compounding at 55%+ revenue and 77% net income growth while its category grows ~16% — the self-serve/e-commerce expansion is still early, though the arithmetic of scale makes today's rate unsustainable beyond a year or two. conf 8/10
Share gain Category growing · Category (Advertising Agencies / ad tech) median recent growth is ~15.8%, with industry revenue accelerating to 15.2% YoY from a 7.3% 3-year CAGR and operating margins up 12.2pp industry-wide. AppLovin is growing revenue at +55.8% and earnings far faster — roughly 3.5x the category pace, with margin expansion ahead of the industry trend.
Next 2 quarters
Accelerating
Self-serve advertiser onboarding is still in ramp and the model retrains continuously, so sequential yield gains compound within the print. Comps remain flattered by the cleaner post-divestiture base through the next two quarters, and the category is in expansion phase with no visible budget shock.
≈ inline with expectations
Year 1
Growing
Full-year growth stays clearly positive and well above category, but the rate steps down from the current 55%+ as the base grows and the gaming core matures. E-commerce and CTV additions keep the number strong; they are unlikely to keep the growth rate itself rising for four more quarters.
≈ inline with expectations
Years 2–3
Growing
Structural earnings power grows — the closed-loop data asset and near-zero incremental cost mean margin keeps expanding even as top-line decelerates. But sustaining anything near current rates on a base this size requires the non-gaming cohort to become the majority of revenue, which is possible rather than probable.
↓ below expectations
The creme: each rung's call measured against what's already printed (vs analyst estimates · vs guidance / FY consensus · vs price-implied growth) — expectations in print are already in the price, so only the variant margin can pay. Hover a rung's chip for the margin read.
Growth drivers
81 Self-serve expansion beyond gaming — AXON's demand base is widening from mobile-game user acquisition into e-commerce and general web advertisers via a self-serve console. This is the mechanism behind revenue reaccelerating to +55.8% YoY on matched quarters versus a ~27% prior-period pace: new advertiser cohorts feed the same auction, raising bid density and yield on already-owned supply without proportional cost.
70 Operating leverage on a software cost base — Operating income +63.2% and net income +77.1% against revenue +55.8% — incremental revenue drops through at near-software margins because the ad engine is fixed-cost inference over existing inventory. Divesting the apps/games business removed the low-margin, capital-hungry half, so reported growth and margin now move together rather than against each other.
59 Closed-loop data flywheel — Owning both supply (MAX/publisher SDK) and demand (APEX) means every campaign's outcome data retrains the ranking model on first-party signal. That is the concrete reason the platform kept compounding through iOS attribution loss, which damaged rivals dependent on third-party identifiers.
32 CTV/streaming distribution as an adjacent inventory pool — Wurl-based connected-TV distribution gives a second inventory type to apply the same bidding model to, extending runway once mobile-app inventory saturates. Still small relative to core, so it is an option on year-2/3 growth rather than a current engine.
Growth risks
67 Law of large numbers — Sustaining 55%+ on a materially larger base requires the e-commerce cohort to scale faster than the gaming core matures. Multi-year revenue CAGR is 38% versus 55.8% recent — the recent rate is an upswing off a divestiture-cleaned base, and mechanical deceleration into the 25-40% band within 18-24 months is the base case.
47 Platform dependency and big-tech competition — Inventory and measurement sit on Apple/Google operating systems. A further privacy or ad-network policy change, or Meta/Amazon extending performance tooling into app install and small-advertiser e-commerce, could compress take rate. No contractual protection against this.
33 Advertiser-budget cyclicality — Performance ad spend is variable and ROAS-gated; a macro squeeze (10y at 5, flagged headwinds) shows up within a quarter because budgets are algorithmically throttled, not contracted. The category is expanding now, which masks this, but it is a real beta.
29 Shrinking beat magnitude — EPS surprises have compressed: +10% (Feb), +3% (May), +1% (Aug). Analysts have caught up to the model, so the upside-surprise cushion that characterized earlier prints has largely closed.
19 Data-practice and disclosure scrutiny — Bear case centers on contested attribution/data-collection methods. Any enforced change to signal collection would hit the model's core input; unquantifiable but non-trivial given how much of the moat is data.
Performance advertising budgets are migrating toward whoever can prove incremental return without third-party identifiers, and that shift rewards closed-loop operators with first-party supply. The macro is a headwind at the margin — a 5% 10-year rate pressures venture-funded app advertisers and discretionary e-commerce spend — but the category is in expansion phase with margins widening across the board, which means AppLovin is growing into a rising, not contracting, pool. The structural question for the world is whether general e-commerce advertisers accept an auction outside the Meta/Google/Amazon triangle; early evidence in the revenue reacceleration says a meaningful minority will, and that is the single variable that determines whether this is a 2-year story or a 5-year one.
Growth position composite +31
ShrinkingStallingHoldingGrowingAccelerating
90Next 2 quarters · Accelerating
70Year 1 · Growing
70Years 2–3 · Growing
+31Composite (−100…+100)
A research prediction, not advice. Forward-graded: each rung is scored against the prints that follow it. Not an input to the GEM designation — track record first.
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-09-17 17:06:51
Verdict Fairly valued near $321 with asymmetric tail risk — the synthesis DCF undermodels operating leverage; fair range $260–360, not $170. Hold; don't chase, don't short.

The raw print is genuinely spectacular: TTM revenue tracks to roughly $6.83B ($1.92+$1.84+$1.66+$1.41B) vs $5.27B a year prior — 30% YoY — and TTM net income of ~$4.42B implies a 64.7% net margin. Sequential quarterly revenue has climbed every quarter for six straight (ex the Q4-24 anomaly, which reflects the divested apps business rolling off). Operating margin at the annual line went from -1.7% (2022) to 75.7% (2025) — that is not a normal mature-earner curve, it is what happens when a high-fixed-cost algorithmic platform crosses scale and sheds a hardware/games segment. The rule-based "mature earner" tag is wrong; pre-flight's "high-growth" is right. ROIC of 1.23 and ROE of 2.04 as shown are nonsensical numbers — those are almost certainly reported as multiples (123% ROIC, 204% ROE), which is consistent with $4.42B NI on $2.13B equity and reinforces just how capital-light this is.

Now the pushback. At $321.54 and $108B market cap, the stock trades at ~24.5x TTM earnings and ~15.8x TTM revenue. For a business compounding earnings above 80% YoY with 65% net margins and $4B+ operating cash flow, 24x earnings is not obviously expensive — it's actually cheap relative to any software comp growing half as fast. The synthesis DCF fair value of $148–170 requires believing margins mean-revert hard and growth collapses to mid-single-digits fast; that's the bear case, not a base case. The thesis-evaluation framing ("60% margin is peak-cycle artifact") is the right worry but the quarterly data doesn't corroborate mean reversion — Q2-26 margin of 65.8% is the highest print on record, not a fade. If AXON's edge were eroding you'd see it in ARPDAU/take-rate compression showing up as gross margin softening; instead gross margin sits at 88.5%.

The contrarian case that actually bites is not valuation multiple — it's concentration and reflexivity. AppLovin's revenue is heavily tied to a relatively small set of mobile gaming advertisers whose LTV models are themselves calibrated against AXON's own attribution. That's a closed loop that works beautifully until (a) Apple/Google tighten SKAdNetwork or Privacy Sandbox further, (b) a major advertiser cohort saturates and pulls spend, or (c) e-commerce vertical expansion (the growth narrative for 2026-27) underdelivers versus the implied ramp. Insider activity is mixed — the F-InKind and gift transactions here are tax/estate-related, not the "massive insider selling" the market-forces module flags; if there's real selling it's earlier and not in this window. I'd downweight that signal.

Where I land: the synthesis "overvalued -47%" verdict rests on a DCF that under-models both the operating leverage still visible in the quarterly cadence and the reinvestment optionality of $4B annual OCF against $1.1B net debt. But the thesis-eval bear-mass tilt is directionally right that any price above ~$300 assumes the AXON edge holds for 4-5+ years — a real bet, not a free lunch. At 24x earnings on a business printing 30% top-line and 80% bottom-line growth, I can't call this overvalued; I can call it priced for continued execution with a fat left tail if the algorithm advantage compresses. A fair-value range of $260-360 seems defensible depending on whether you haircut the margin to 50% (bear) or hold 60%+ (base). Current $321 sits in the upper half of that range — fairly valued to modestly rich, not the -47% mispricing the composite claims. I dissent from the synthesis verdict on magnitude while acknowledging the risk profile it's flagging.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-09-17 17:07:12
Verdict Fair to slightly overvalued at $321.54 — outstanding execution is real, but the market is capitalizing unusually high 60%+ net margins as durable; I’d need a materially lower entry, roughly sub-$260, or more proof before getting constructive.

What jumps out is not just that AppLovin is growing fast, but that the income statement has become almost absurdly efficient. On a trailing twelve-month basis through 2026-06-30, revenue is about $6.83B from quarterly sales of $1.41B, $1.66B, $1.84B, and $1.92B, up roughly 47% versus the prior TTM of about $4.65B. Net income over the same span is about $4.42B, implying a 64.6% net margin, and operating margin is flagged at 77.4%. Those are software-monopoly margins appearing inside ad-tech, which is why the stock still commands $108B despite having already corrected from prior highs. The recent quarterly progression also matters: revenue rose sequentially every quarter from $1.41B to $1.92B, while net income climbed from $835.5M to $1.27B. This does not look like a business rolling over. The core fact a bear has to explain away is that AppLovin has converted incremental revenue into extraordinary profit at scale, and cash generation supports it: 2025 operating cash flow was $3.97B against $5.48B of revenue.

But valuation is now asking investors to underwrite those extraordinary economics as durable rather than merely current. At $321.54, the stock trades at 24.7x trailing earnings, which superficially is not crazy for a business growing revenue ~47% and earnings ~80%+. The problem is that the “E” itself appears unusually elevated. Quarterly net margins of 59.5%-66.5% are so far above normal ad platform economics that I have a hard time capitalizing them at face value. Even if AppLovin has built a real algorithmic edge, ad-tech advantages tend to attract budget shifts, competition, copycats, and platform dependence risk. On TTM revenue of $6.83B, the company trades at roughly 15.8x sales and 16.0x EV/revenue. For that to be cheap, you have to believe today’s 65% net margin is not peak-ish but sustainable or even expandable. I don’t. If normalized net margin were, say, 35%-45% instead of mid-60s, the apparent P/E cheapness disappears quickly.

The balance sheet is healthier than many critics will admit, which is why I’m not outright bearish on the business. Debt of $3.62B against $2.49B of cash is manageable for a company producing billions in earnings and nearly $4B in annual operating cash flow. This is not a speculative AI story burning capital; it is a highly cash-generative platform. Revenue has also re-accelerated versus the annual cadence: 2024 revenue was $4.71B, 2025 was $5.48B, then the TTM through mid-2026 is already $6.83B. So I do not buy the lazy critique that this is merely a “mature earner” with no runway. The business may well deserve a premium multiple because something real has improved operationally. My issue is price, not quality: the market is still paying a premium usually reserved for businesses with both exceptional margins and unquestioned durability, and AppLovin only clearly has the first of those two today.

The best argument against my caution is straightforward: the stock may actually be cheaper than it looks because the business mix has structurally changed faster than conventional valuation frameworks can digest. Annual net income went from $356.7M in 2023 to $1.58B in 2024 to $3.33B in 2025, and the TTM run-rate is already $4.4B+. If AXON/APEX-style optimization is genuinely improving advertiser ROI in a way rivals cannot match, then AppLovin is not an ad intermediary with cyclical margins; it is closer to a scaled decision engine monetizing a proprietary feedback loop. On that view, 24.7x trailing earnings is not expensive at all, especially with gross margin near 88% and sequential revenue growth still strong. I weigh that argument less heavily because the burden of proof is higher when margins move to levels that imply near-frictionless economics in a competitive auction-driven market. Great models in ad-tech can persist, but they rarely stay unchallenged.

What would change my mind in a bullish direction is simple: another two to three quarters showing revenue still compounding above 25%-30% year over year while net margin stays above 55% and operating cash flow tracks earnings without slippage. If AppLovin can push the revenue run-rate toward $8B without margin collapse, then the current multiple is much easier to defend and $321 would not look demanding. What would make me more bearish is revenue decelerating into the teens while margins revert sharply below 50%, because that would reveal how much of today’s valuation rests on peak profitability. For now I think the business is elite, but the stock still embeds too much confidence that these astonishing economics are the new normal.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-09-17 17:08:13
Verdict ~25× TTM earnings on 65% net margins and still-compounding cash flow makes $321 closer to fair than the models’ $170 distress case

AppLovin’s trailing four quarters tell a story the composite models are refusing to price cleanly. Revenue ran $1.41B → $1.66B → $1.84B → $1.92B, a TTM top line of roughly $6.83B, while net income stacked to about $4.42B at a 65% net margin. That is not “ad-tech cyclicality” in any conventional sense; operating margin sits at 77% and gross margin at 88%, with 2025 operating cash flow of $3.97B against $5.48B of revenue. Year-ago comparisons remain explosive—latest quarter revenue up ~52% versus the $1.26B printed in the June 2025 quarter, earnings up ~55%—even after the company shed its games portfolio and became a pure-play AXON/MAX advertising engine. At $321 and a $108B enterprise, the stock trades at ~25× TTM earnings, ~16× sales and ~20× EBITDA. For a business converting nearly every incremental dollar at software-like margins and still growing mid-to-high teens-plus on a multi-billion base, those multiples are ordinary, not euphoric. The 203% ROE and 123% ROIC simply confirm an asset-light machine that needs almost no capital to compound. The rule-based “mature earner” tag and the $170 fair-value anchor both look like they are still modeling the pre-2024 AppLovin.

The strongest counter-argument is straightforward and quantitative. Sequential growth has already slowed—from +18% in the December quarter to +11% then only +4% in the June 2026 quarter—so the 38% revenue CAGR and 27% recent YoY figures will keep decelerating unless AXON keeps taking share. Net margins above 60% have almost no precedent in advertising and could prove peak-cycle once Apple or Google tighten identity or self-preferential inventory; the single 2024 December quarter that showed $2.10B of revenue at only 28.5% margin is a reminder that mix and one-time items can swing results hard. Debt of $3.62B against $2.13B of book equity produces a 1.1× levered balance sheet and a 34× P/B that will look absurd if earnings power mean-reverts even halfway toward historical ad-tech norms. The valuation committee’s unanimous “overvalued” call and the –47% gap to signal-adjusted fair value of $170 are therefore coherent if you assume mid-single-digit terminal growth and mid-30s margins; under that regime $321 is pricing perfection that the next privacy change or macro ad-spend cut can erase. Insider activity, while mostly gifts and conversions rather than open-market dumps, still nets supply into a stock that has already halved from its $746 high.

I would flip to outright bearish if two consecutive quarters print revenue growth below 15% YoY while net margin compresses under 50%, or if management signals that AXON’s edge is being competed away by Meta or Google’s own bidding models. I would flip aggressively bullish if the next two prints re-accelerate above 35% revenue growth with margins still north of 60%, confirming the platform is still in land-grab mode rather than harvest mode. Until then the raw cash generation at a mid-20s earnings multiple outweighs the narrative-premium warning.

Qwen Reading local experiment · off-panel
Independent reading · qwen3.8:27b on the local GPU · generated 2026-09-17 17:08:28 · 14.9s (78.2 tok/s) · live briefing
Overvalued · conviction 4/5 · bull 2/10
followed the VERDICT/STANCE contract
Verdict Overvalued at $321.54; the 34.5x P/B and 16x EV/Revenue multiples price in a durable monopoly that the balance sheet and competitive landscape do not support, with a fair value closer to $170 based on normalized margins and growth.

The most glaring contradiction in this dataset is not the valuation multiple, but the fundamental disconnect between the reported profitability and the balance sheet reality. The briefing cites a TTM net margin of 64.6% and an operating margin of 77.4%, which are figures typically reserved for the most efficient software companies in history, yet the balance sheet shows total equity of only $2.13B against a market cap of $108B. This results in a Price-to-Book ratio of 34.5x and an ROE of 203.7%. While high ROE is often a sign of excellence, in this context, it is a mathematical artifact of a balance sheet that has been hollowed out by massive buybacks and debt accumulation. The company is generating $3.97B in operating cash flow, but it is carrying $3.62B in total debt against only $2.49B in cash. The "mature earner" classification assigned by the rule-based model is a dangerous mislabel; this is a high-growth, high-leverage entity that is using its cash flow to shrink its equity base rather than reinvest in a capital-intensive infrastructure. The 65% net margin is not a reflection of operational superiority in the traditional sense, but rather the result of extreme financial engineering and a potentially unsustainable cost structure that has been stripped of its historical overhead.

The revenue trajectory is impressive on the surface—$1.92B in Q2 2026, up from $1.26B a year prior—but the quality of that growth is suspect when viewed against the "platform-monopoly" narrative. The market is pricing AppLovin at 16x EV/Revenue, a multiple that assumes the company is a tollbooth with zero competition. However, the "bear story" cited in the narrative layer is not merely a contrarian view; it is a structural reality. AppLovin is a middleman in a zero-sum game where the ultimate value accrues to the platforms (Apple, Google) and the developers. The 44% revenue CAGR is decelerating in absolute terms as the base grows, and the 60%+ margins are likely peak-cycle artifacts of a mobile gaming boom that is now maturing. The "AI-driven" moat is a narrative premium, not a structural barrier to entry. Meta and Google have superior data sets and distribution channels; AppLovin’s advantage is currently a speed and optimization edge, which is inherently ephemeral in the machine learning arms race. The 50% drawdown from the $746 high is not a correction; it is the market beginning to price in the reality that this "winner-take-most" thesis is fragile.

The strongest case against my bearish read is the sheer velocity of the cash flow generation. $3.97B in operating cash flow is a real, tangible number that supports the current earnings power. If AppLovin can maintain 60%+ net margins, the P/E of 24.7x is not actually expensive for a company growing earnings at 81.5% YoY. The "unusual selling activity" by insiders is a red flag, but it is also a rational response to a stock that has been bid up by momentum and narrative rather than fundamental re-rating. The insiders know the ceiling of this model. However, I weigh the balance sheet risk and the competitive fragility more heavily than the current cash flow. The debt-to-equity ratio of 1.11x is manageable today, but if the "AI moat" erodes and margins compress to a more sustainable 30-40%, the equity base will shrink further, and the leverage will become a significant drag on shareholder value. The market is pricing in perfection, and perfection is a high bar to clear in a competitive ad-tech landscape.

What would change my mind is a clear demonstration of margin durability in a down-cycle. If AppLovin can show that its 60%+ net margins are maintained even as mobile ad spend normalizes or declines, that would prove the "AI moat" is real and not just a cyclical tailwind. Additionally, a significant reduction in debt and a halt to the aggressive buybacks would signal management confidence in the long-term equity value rather than short-term EPS manipulation. Until then, the stock is a high-risk, high-reward bet on a narrative that is increasingly vulnerable to competitive and structural headwinds.

Experiment only: this reading is not a panel seat and feeds nothing — compare it against the Claude, GPT and Grok readings above.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 5.0; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 5.0
fairly valued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.0 vs panel · self: 5.0
GPT gpt-5.4 5.0
fairly valued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.0 vs panel · self: 4.0
Grok grok-4.5 5.0
fairly valued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.0 vs panel · self: 6.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-09-17 17:12:10
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality — wait for a dip 7/10
Fortress-grade business (Q +83) at a rich price (V -68) into a cracking narrative — admire, don't chase; my bid is in the low $200s.
The cruxWhether the current 77% operating margins and platform-monopoly economics prove durable long enough to grow into the price, or normalize before the multiple compresses.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from APP's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionShare Count Shrinking
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+83
Fortress
edge √Σ 159 · risk √Σ 40 · conf 9/10

The financial trajectory is extraordinary: revenue grew from $2.92B (2022) to $6.83B (2026), while gross margin expanded from 62.2% to 88.5% and operating margin exploded from 1% to 77.4%. Net income went from a $105M loss to $4.41B profit, and FCF scaled from $283M to $4.53B - a 16x jump in four years. OCF/NI of 8.76x and negative accruals (-8.2% of assets) indicate reported earnings are more than fully backed by cash, and the Beneish M of -2.25 plus Altman Z of 16.68 show no manipulation flags and fortress-level solvency.

Strengths 4
m92
Explosive margin expansion
Operating margin scaled from 1% (2022) to 77.4% (2026) on 2.3x revenue growth - operating leverage of a magnitude rarely seen in public markets.
m88
Cash generation dominates reported earnings
FCF of $4.53B on $4.41B net income; OCF/NI ratio of 8.76x and accruals at -8.2% of assets confirm earnings are backed by real cash, not accounting.
m70
Share count actively shrinking
Diluted shares down from 376.7M to 338.9M (-2.6% CAGR); buybacks at 449% of SBC means net repurchaser despite 4.1% SBC/revenue.
m65
Fortress solvency profile
Altman Z of 16.68 is deep in safe zone; $3.05B liquid cash plus $4.53B annual FCF makes the -$461.8M net debt position trivial.
Concerns 2
m35
Heavy insider selling with zero buys
89 sales totaling $111.6M vs 0 buys in 12 months flagged as unusual. Recent tape is mostly F-InKind withholding and gifts, but the absence of any conviction buying at these fundamentals is worth noting.
m20
Modest net debt position
Carries -$461.8M net debt with cash only 2.8% of market cap; not a survival concern given FCF, but not a true cash fortress either.
This is one of the most impressive fundamental transformations in the public market: a company that was barely profitable in 2022 is now generating $4.53B FCF at 77% operating margins with a shrinking share count. The mechanical forensics are essentially spotless - accruals negative, cash conversion above 1x, Beneish clean, Altman fortress. My hesitation isn't with the numbers as reported but with how young the elite phase is; margins inflected sharply only in 2024-2025, and I want to see this hold through an ad-cycle downturn before calling it generational. Insider selling is loud but largely non-directional on inspection. Business quality is genuinely top-decile.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Concentration of ad revenue by top advertisers/customers and mobile gaming exposure
  • Sustainability of AXON AI-driven margin expansion - is the 88.5% GM structural or peak-cycle
  • Nature of insider selling - 10b5-1 plan disclosures vs discretionary
  • Composition and terms of debt driving the net debt position
  • Segment breakdown between Apps and Advertising post-portfolio divestitures
Valuation / Mispricing
-68
Rich
edge √Σ 27 · risk √Σ 109 · conf 7/10
Price $321.54 vs quality-adjusted deserved value ~$200-230 and composite FV $170 - a 30-50% premium, no margin of safety. attractive below $210.00

The e2e composite pegs deserved value at $147.86 and the signal-adjusted FV at $169.83, implying roughly -47% downside from $321.54. The DCF ($137) and EPV floor ($55) both scream rich; only the anchored P/E ($262) gets within shouting distance, and even that is 19% below spot. Even after generously tilting toward the anchored-PE method to reflect Fortress-grade quality (83) and clean earnings (score 3), a quality-weighted deserved value lands in the $200-230 zone - still 30%+ below the market price.

Cheap signals 2
m22
Fortress quality justifies premium multiple
77% operating margins, negative accruals, >1x cash conversion, shrinking share count - deserves an above-average multiple, closing part but not all of the gap.
m15
Anchored P/E within 20% of price
Anchored-PE FV of $261.82 suggests the market's multiple isn't absurd relative to peer/history comps - the overvaluation is not extreme by that lens alone.
Rich / priced-in 3
m72
Composite FV ~47% below price
Signal-adjusted FV $169.83 and composite $147.86 vs $321.54 spot. Two of three methods (DCF $137, EPV $55) point sharply lower; only anchored P/E ($262) is in the neighborhood.
m60
EPV floor at $55 flags no downside cushion
Earnings-power value of $55 is ~83% below price, meaning almost all value depends on continued growth - if ad-tech growth normalizes, the floor is brutal.
m55
Priced for platform-monopoly outcome
$108B market cap on $4.53B FCF is ~24x FCF, which only works if APEX/MAX retain their closed-loop moat against Apple, Google, and iOS attribution headwinds - the bull case must fully play out.
I can't call this cheap at $321.54. Even giving full credit to Fortress-grade quality and pristine earnings, my deserved value tops out around $200-230, and the composite says $170. The business is genuinely excellent, but excellence is fully in the price - I'd want to see it in the low $200s before this becomes interesting on valuation alone. Buying here is a bet that platform-monopoly economics compound for years without competitive erosion, and the market has already paid for that outcome.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Forward ad-spend guidance and APEX take-rate trends in the next 10-Q
  • Any disclosure on impact of Apple/Google ad-network competition or iOS attribution changes
  • Segment detail on e-commerce vertical ramp - a key bull-case driver
  • Buyback pace vs SBC dilution to confirm continued share-count shrink
  • Customer concentration and cohort retention in advertiser base
General Sentiment
-64
Headwind
tail √Σ 50 · head √Σ 125 · conf 7/10

APP is 55% off its high with a beta of 2.49 into a nascent Risk-Off tape (VIX 17.7, S&P off highs, 10y at 5%). That macro setup is designed to punish exactly this profile: a former mania stock (800% peak, still up 400%), platform-monopoly narrative, medium cult coefficient, moderate durability. When the story is intact, high beta cuts both ways; when it is cracking, beta only amplifies the downside. The narrative itself is the biggest force here. The bull case (closed-loop AI adtech monopoly) is being actively contested by the bear case (cyclical middleman, iOS attribution risk, platform encroachment), and the August BofA downgrade questioning the 30% growth target crystallized that doubt into price action. Analyst tone is bifurcated - Street targets still imply ~50-100% upside, but the marginal note is skeptical, and Cramer publicly wobbling on air is the kind of tell that the retail cult is thinning. News flow is mixed-negative: 'why it fell more than the market,' '36% in 3 months,' offset by the Wurl CTV launch and bottom-fisher chatter. Net: the narrative is fading faster than it is being defended, and the tape magnifies it.

Tailwinds 2
m40
Deep drawdown attracts bottom-fishers
55% off the high plus Street targets in the $500-668 range and 'buy the dip' headlines create a floor of contrarian bid. Recent +6.2% week vs S&P -1.1% shows dip-buyers are engaged.
m30
Wurl CTV launch keeps growth narrative alive
The Content Intelligence Platform launch gives bulls a fresh story hook (CTV expansion) to defend the platform thesis and slow the narrative decay.
Headwinds 5
m72
Narrative cracking, not collapsing
The platform-monopoly story is being actively challenged (BofA growth-target downgrade, iOS attribution, platform risk) and the stock is 55% off highs - classic signature of a de-rating narrative rather than a healthy consolidation.
m65
Beta 2.49 into a risk-off tape
A nascent Risk-Off regime with VIX elevated hits a 2.49-beta former mania stock disproportionately. Even mild market weakness translates into outsized markdowns here.
m55
Cult thinning, momentum decelerating
Recent 27.5% vs 38% long-term CAGR shows momentum rolling over, and public wobbles from prior bulls (Cramer) signal the marginal holder is losing conviction - dangerous for a medium-cult name.
m45
10y at 5%, market PE 24.6
High long rates and stretched multiples are structurally hostile to long-duration growth stories trading on future AI-driven margin expansion - exactly APP's pitch.
m35
Analyst tone quietly turning
The BofA downgrade questioning the 30% growth target is the kind of marginal note that seeds broader Street doubt; targets remain high but the direction of revisions has flipped negative.
This is a headwind read, not a strong headwind. The narrative is genuinely cracking - BofA lit the fuse, the stock is 55% off highs, momentum is decelerating, and a 2.49-beta profile into a risk-off tape is the wrong body type for this environment. But it is not a full collapse: Street targets are still bullish, the Wurl launch keeps a growth angle alive, and the drawdown itself is bringing in bottom-fishers. Net pressure leans down and I would expect continued choppy underperformance until either a clean Q3 beat reasserts the story or a capitulation flush resets positioning. The macro tape is not the star here - the fading narrative is.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Whether any additional sell-side analyst joins BofA in cutting the growth target - a second downgrade would confirm the narrative crack
  • Q3 print and guide - the last chance to reassert the 30%+ growth story before the narrative fully fades
  • VIX direction and whether the Risk-Off regime deepens or resolves - decisive for a 2.49-beta name
  • Retail flow / options positioning to gauge whether the cult is still defending the stock or capitulating
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
+31
Accelerating
edge √Σ 126 · risk √Σ 95 · conf 8/10

Performance advertising budgets are migrating toward whoever can prove incremental return without third-party identifiers, and that shift rewards closed-loop operators with first-party supply. The macro is a headwind at the margin — a 5% 10-year rate pressures venture-funded app advertisers and discretionary e-commerce spend — but the category is in expansion phase with margins widening across the board, which means AppLovin is growing into a rising, not contracting, pool. The structural question for the world is whether general e-commerce advertisers accept an auction outside the Meta/Google/Amazon triangle; early evidence in the revenue reacceleration says a meaningful minority will, and that is the single variable that determines whether this is a 2-year story or a 5-year one.

Growth drivers 4
m81
Self-serve expansion beyond gaming
AXON's demand base is widening from mobile-game user acquisition into e-commerce and general web advertisers via a self-serve console. This is the mechanism behind revenue reaccelerating to +55.8% YoY on matched quarters versus a ~27% prior-period pace: new advertiser cohorts feed the same auction, raising bid density and yield on already-owned supply without proportional cost.
m70
Operating leverage on a software cost base
Operating income +63.2% and net income +77.1% against revenue +55.8% — incremental revenue drops through at near-software margins because the ad engine is fixed-cost inference over existing inventory. Divesting the apps/games business removed the low-margin, capital-hungry half, so reported growth and margin now move together rather than against each other.
m59
Closed-loop data flywheel
Owning both supply (MAX/publisher SDK) and demand (APEX) means every campaign's outcome data retrains the ranking model on first-party signal. That is the concrete reason the platform kept compounding through iOS attribution loss, which damaged rivals dependent on third-party identifiers.
m32
CTV/streaming distribution as an adjacent inventory pool
Wurl-based connected-TV distribution gives a second inventory type to apply the same bidding model to, extending runway once mobile-app inventory saturates. Still small relative to core, so it is an option on year-2/3 growth rather than a current engine.
Growth risks 5
m67
Law of large numbers
Sustaining 55%+ on a materially larger base requires the e-commerce cohort to scale faster than the gaming core matures. Multi-year revenue CAGR is 38% versus 55.8% recent — the recent rate is an upswing off a divestiture-cleaned base, and mechanical deceleration into the 25-40% band within 18-24 months is the base case.
m47
Platform dependency and big-tech competition
Inventory and measurement sit on Apple/Google operating systems. A further privacy or ad-network policy change, or Meta/Amazon extending performance tooling into app install and small-advertiser e-commerce, could compress take rate. No contractual protection against this.
m33
Advertiser-budget cyclicality
Performance ad spend is variable and ROAS-gated; a macro squeeze (10y at 5, flagged headwinds) shows up within a quarter because budgets are algorithmically throttled, not contracted. The category is expanding now, which masks this, but it is a real beta.
m29
Shrinking beat magnitude
EPS surprises have compressed: +10% (Feb), +3% (May), +1% (Aug). Analysts have caught up to the model, so the upside-surprise cushion that characterized earlier prints has largely closed.
m19
Data-practice and disclosure scrutiny
Bear case centers on contested attribution/data-collection methods. Any enforced change to signal collection would hit the model's core input; unquantifiable but non-trivial given how much of the moat is data.
vs expectations: ~6m inline · 1y inline · 2-3y below
The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
Lower -28.1% v0.6.0 View full prediction →

When we made this prediction on Sep 18, 2026, APP was $312.92. We expect it to be $225.00 by Mar 2027, and we consider it great value under $210.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Sep 18, 2026.

Price when predicted$312.92
Our estimate for Mar 2027$225.00-28.1%
Great value below$210.00
Price history shown (6 Months)

Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.

Post-Report Due Diligence NOTES
The report is written. This is what its valuation stands on.
Analyzed Oct 2, 2026 · 02:03 5d ago
Read epv-floor ext-gem-composite anchored-pe · FY income statement, balance sheet
1 finding · $0, re-derived on each view

Evidence for a closer look, not a verdict — no score or designation on this page has been changed by it. Items marked material are ones where a conclusion above moves to the other side of the price.

anchored-pe — the "fair value below price" reading turns on 2 inputs NOTE found by sensitivity, not by rule
Published $261.82 vs price $321.54. Nudging `trailing_eps` (up 25%), `adjusted_pe` (up 25%) moves the fair value to the other side of the price. This does not say those inputs are wrong — it says they are where to look first.
trailing_eps flips up 25% adjusted_pe flips up 25%
Price at analysis $321.54. This is where an investigation should start — it is not where one ends. Nothing here was checked against the filings, the tape, or the news; that is the investigator's job.
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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.760 · f4b58a28 · 2026-10-07 20:07:48