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AGING Analysis Report
Jun 3, 2026
23 days ago · 90% complete · +4 refreshed

Lululemon Athletica Inc.

LULU NASDAQ Categories PDF
Consumer Cyclical · Apparel - Retail
Vancouver, BC V6J 1C7, Canada IPO 2007 shop.lululemon.com Updated Jun 3, 6:13pm
Price
$126.03
Market Cap
$15.1B
Employees
39,000
Beta
0.90
Avg Volume
3,080,353
CEO
Meghan C. Frank
Business Description

lululemon athletica inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, distributes, and retails athletic apparel and accessories for women and men. It operates in two segments, Company-Operated Stores and Direct to Consumer. The company offers pants, shorts, tops, and jackets for healthy lifestyle and athletic activities, such as yoga, running, and training, as well as other sweaty pursuits. It also provides fitness-related accessories and footwear. The company sells its products through a chain of company-operated stores; outlets and warehouse sales; interactive workout platform; a network of wholesale accounts, such as yoga studios, health clubs, and fitness centers; temporary locations; and license and supply arrangements, as well as directly to consumer through mobile apps and lululemon.com e-commerce website. As of January 30, 2022, it operated 574 company-operated stores under the lululemon brand in the United States, Canada, the People's Republic of China, Australia, the United Kingdom, Japan, New Zealand, Germany, South Korea, Singapore, France, Malaysia, Sweden, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway, and Switzerland. lululemon athletica inc. was founded in 1998 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.

Business History
Generated: Jun 3, 2026 8:27pm
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026 8:43pm (23d ago)
$126.03
-0.44 (-0.35%)
Day Range
$123.45 – $126.16
52-Week Range
$116.63 – $339.15
50-Day MA
$143.16
200-Day MA
$172.40
Volume
2,852,861.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $130.00
Consensus $200.57
High $250.00
(140 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 119,550,899.00
Float 106,504,488.00
Free Float 89.1%
High free float — 89.1% of shares trade freely, ~10.9% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026 8:31pm (23d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026 8:31pm (23d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 3, 2026 8:44pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
9.50
Stock Price: $126.03
EPS (Diluted): 13.27
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
4.29
Stock Price: $126.03
Total Equity: $4.96B
Shares: 119,068,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
5.54
Market Cap: $15.07B
Total Debt: $298.72M
Cash: $1.81B
EBITDA: $2.74B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$21.3B
Market Cap: $15.07B
Total Debt: $298.72M
Cash: $1.81B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
56.6%
Gross Profit: $6.28B
Revenue: $11.10B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
19.9%
Operating Income: $2.21B
Revenue: $11.10B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
14.2%
Net Income: $1.58B
Revenue: $11.10B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
34.8%
Net Income: $1.58B
Total Equity: $4.96B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
22.6%
Operating Income: $2.21B
Tax Rate: 29.5%
Equity: $4.96B
Total Debt: $298.72M
Cash: $1.81B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
2.26
Current Assets: $4.26B
Current Liabilities: $1.89B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.06
Short-Term Debt: $298.72M
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $298.72M
Total Equity: $4.96B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$93.25
Revenue: $11.10B
Shares: 119,068,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$41.67
Total Equity: $4.96B
Shares: 119,068,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$7.74
Operating CF: $1.60B
CapEx: -$680.80M
Shares: 119,068,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.0%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $126.03
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $1.58B
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 3, 2026 8:44pm
Compares LULU against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · three lenses
The "final boss" read — Opus reviews every forensic module + the full e2e analysis · 2026-06-03 20:56:48
Legacy single-score read — re-run the extended pipeline to get the two-lens split.
Fortress balance sheet and shrinking share count, but a real margin/growth deceleration is in progress — this is a 'wait for the bleed to stop' setup, not a screaming bargain.
+0 Hold / Neutral

The forensic mechanics are clean: $1.81B cash, $1.51B net cash, Altman Z of 5.85, Beneish M of -2.73, OCF/NI of 1.26x, accruals -5.4% of assets — there is no accounting game here, and the buyback engine (buyback/SBC ratio 1,178%, diluted shares 130.3M→119.1M, a -2.2% CAGR) is genuinely concentrating per-share value with SBC at a trivial 0.6% of revenue. That alone separates LULU from 95% of consumer-discretionary 'growth' names. The dilution-trap angle simply isn't here.

The real problem is in the trajectory line nobody on the bull side wants to look at: revenue growth has decelerated from +29.6% (FY23) → +18.6% → +10.1% → +4.8% (FY26), and FY26 saw op margin collapse from 23.7% to 19.9%, net income drop ~13%, and FCF nearly halve from $1.58B to $921.7M. That is not noise — that is a $660M FCF swing in a single year on a $15B market cap, meaning trailing FCF yield just went from ~10% to ~6%. The pipeline's 'disconnected from fundamentals / undervalued' read is backward-looking; on FY26 numbers LULU trades at ~16x FCF and ~9.5x EBIT, which is fair-to-cheap for a brand with this balance sheet but not the deep bargain the synthesis implies.

Insider tape, read directly, is NOT 'net buying' — it's one real open-market purchase (Maestrini, $494K at $150) versus one small sale and a wall of F-InKind tax-withholding events that aren't directional. The upstream 'net insider buying' label is wrong. One CFO/exec buying ~$500K mid-decline is a mild positive, not a cluster.

Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 3, 2026 8:46:54 pm

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026 8:31pm (23d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Revenue $6.3B $8.1B $9.6B $10.6B $11.1B
Cost of Revenue $2.6B $3.6B $4.0B $4.3B $4.8B
Gross Profit $3.6B $4.5B $5.6B $6.3B $6.3B
Operating Expenses $2.3B $3.2B $3.5B $3.8B $4.1B
Operating Income $1.3B $1.3B $2.1B $2.5B $2.2B
Net Income $975.3M $854.8M $1.6B $1.8B $1.6B
EBITDA $1.6B $2.0B $2.6B $3.0B $2.7B
EPS $7.52 $6.70 $12.23 $14.67 $13.27
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026 8:24pm (23d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Cash & Equivalents $1.3B $1.2B $2.2B $2.0B $1.8B
Total Current Assets $2.6B $3.2B $4.1B $4.0B $4.3B
Total Assets $4.9B $5.6B $7.1B $7.6B $8.5B
Current Liabilities $1.4B $1.5B $1.6B $1.8B $1.9B
Long-Term Debt $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Total Liabilities $2.2B $2.5B $2.9B $3.3B $3.5B
Total Equity $2.7B $3.1B $4.2B $4.3B $5.0B
Retained Earnings $2.5B $2.9B $3.9B $4.1B $4.5B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026 8:31pm (23d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Operating Cash Flow $1.4B $966.5M $2.3B $2.3B $1.6B
Capital Expenditure -$394.5M -$638.7M -$651.9M -$689.2M -$680.8M
Free Cash Flow $994.6M $327.8M $1.6B $1.6B $921.7M
Acquisitions (net) $0 $0 $0 -$154.1M $0
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks -$812.6M -$444.0M -$558.7M -$1.6B -$1.2B
Net Change in Cash $109.4M -$105.0M $1.1B -$259.6M -$177.1M
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026 8:24pm (23d ago)
Metric 2027 2028 2029 2030
Revenue $11.5B
$11.3B – $11.6B
$12.0B
$11.8B – $12.2B
$12.6B
$12.6B – $12.6B
$13.4B
$13.0B – $13.6B
EBITDA $2.9B
$2.9B – $2.9B
$3.0B
$3.0B – $3.1B
$3.2B
$3.2B – $3.2B
$3.4B
$3.3B – $3.4B
Net Income $1.4B
$1.4B – $1.5B
$1.5B
$1.4B – $1.7B
$1.6B
$1.4B – $2.1B
$1.9B
$1.8B – $1.9B
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026 8:31pm (23d ago)
Metric 2023 2024 2025 2026
Revenue Growth +29.6% +18.6% +10.1% +4.9%
Gross Profit Growth +24.5% +24.9% +11.8% +0.2%
Operating Income Growth -0.4% +60.5% +17.5% -11.8%
Net Income Growth -12.4% +81.4% +17.1% -13.0%
EBITDA Growth +26.2% +28.2% +14.1% -7.4%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026 8:30pm (23d ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-06-15 Bergh Charles V P-Purchase 4,275.00 $117.05 $500,384
2026-06-09 Bracey Esi Eggleston A-Award 247.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-08 NEUBURGER NICOLE F-InKind 55.00 $117.55 $6,465
2026-06-08 FRANK MEGHAN F-InKind 28.00 $117.55 $3,291
2026-04-28 Bracey Esi Eggleston 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-04-08 NEUBURGER NICOLE S-Sale 622.00 $161.00 $100,142
2026-04-01 MAESTRINI ANDRE P-Purchase 3,275.00 $151.02 $494,591
2026-03-31 FRANK MEGHAN F-InKind 400.00 $153.10 $61,240
2026-03-31 NEUBURGER NICOLE F-InKind 369.00 $153.10 $56,494
2026-03-31 MAESTRINI ANDRE F-InKind 357.00 $153.10 $54,657
2026-03-30 MAESTRINI ANDRE M-Exempt 4,692.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-30 MAESTRINI ANDRE F-InKind 2,206.00 $145.83 $321,701
2026-03-30 MAESTRINI ANDRE F-InKind 224.00 $145.83 $32,666
2026-03-30 MAESTRINI ANDRE M-Exempt 4,692.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-30 NEUBURGER NICOLE M-Exempt 3,754.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-30 NEUBURGER NICOLE F-InKind 1,979.00 $145.83 $288,598
2026-03-30 NEUBURGER NICOLE F-InKind 201.00 $145.83 $29,312
2026-03-30 NEUBURGER NICOLE M-Exempt 3,754.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-30 FRANK MEGHAN M-Exempt 3,754.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-30 FRANK MEGHAN F-InKind 1,977.00 $145.83 $288,306
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for LULU — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-03 20:47:33
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict Mildly undervalued but not the screaming bargain the synthesis claims — fair value $140-$155 vs $126 spot; Q4 margin compression (op margin 19.9% vs 23.7%) is a fresh wound, wait

Looking at the raw quarterly cadence first: Q4 (Feb-ending) revenue went from $3.61B → $3.64B, a paltry 0.8% YoY for the seasonally critical quarter, while Q4 net income collapsed from $748M to $587M — a 22% drop and a 460bp margin contraction (20.7% → 16.1%). That is not "maturing premium brand," that is operating deleverage in the highest-volume quarter when fixed costs should be most absorbed. The three preceding quarters (Q1-Q3 FY26) ran 4-7% YoY revenue growth with margins 12-15% versus 14-17% prior year. Full-year FY26: revenue $11.10B (+4.8%), but NI $1.58B vs $1.81B (-12.7%) and operating income $2.21B vs $2.51B (-12%). FCF is the loudest alarm — $922M trailing, down from a multi-year run-rate that supported the -25% FCF CAGR figure. Capex $681M against $1.60B OCF means reinvestment intensity is rising while returns are falling.

The synthesis verdict ("Disconnected from Fundamentals" in the bullish direction) is defensible but glosses over the direction of second derivatives. Yes, 9.5x TTM P/E and 5.5x EV/EBITDA for a business still generating 19.9% operating margins and 22.6% ROIC is statistically cheap — this is mid-cycle industrial multiples on a brand that just printed 56.6% gross margins. But the bull case in the synthesis assumes margins stabilize; the Q4 print suggests they haven't. The Pre-Flight note's "high-growth-maturing" framing is closer to right than the rule-based "mature_earner" tag — a true mature earner doesn't see earnings drop 13% on +5% revenue. That's a margin story unfolding in real time, and it argues against the synthesis's confident dismissal of the bear case. The Market Forces "neutral" read is actually the most honest of the bunch.

A contrarian would press harder. First, the China/international thesis that supposedly bails out the multiple is unverifiable from this file — we have no segment breakdown. Second, gross margin held at 56.6% but operating margin compressed from 23.7% to 19.9% — that's SG&A deleverage, classic signature of a brand spending to defend share against Alo, Vuori, and Nike's resurgence. Third, the insider data is essentially noise (a 3,275 share purchase against routine F-InKind tax withholdings) — calling this "Net Insider Buying" as a positive signal is generous. Fourth, the balance sheet tile is missing total debt and equity entirely, which makes ROE/ROIC verification impossible — and the anomaly flags correctly note the canonical TTM ratios don't tie to the annual row. Fifth, with apparel-retail comps historically trading 8-12x P/E when growth stalls (think Under Armour, Gap), 9.5x isn't a bargain — it's appropriate pricing for a brand that may have peaked.

I dissent partially from the synthesis. At $126 and a $15B cap, the math works if FY27 FCF stabilizes near $900M-$1B (15-17x FCF) and revenue holds mid-single-digits — that's a reasonable scenario, not a heroic one. But the synthesis's "disconnected, market is too pessimistic" framing underweights that Q4 margin compression is a fresh wound, not an old scar, and that brand-premium businesses re-rate violently downward once the "platform" narrative cracks (see Nike from $170 to $60). Fair value on a sober DCF with 4% revenue growth fading to 3%, op margins re-stabilizing at 19%, and a 10% discount rate lands me around $140-$155 — modest upside, not the 50%+ implied by the synthesis. The asymmetry is okay but not screaming, and the catalyst path requires evidence margins have bottomed, which we don't have yet. Starter position defensible; backing up the truck is not. The right trade is to wait one more quarter to see if Q1 FY27 margins stabilize sequentially — if they do, re-rate to $150+ is plausible; if they compress further, $100 is in play.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-03 20:47:40
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I disagree with Opus's "mildly undervalued" assessment. The Q4 margin compression is a critical issue that suggests fair value is nearer to $130 than $140-$155. The market's caution appears justified; further deterioration could reveal $100 as a possible lower bound.

Lululemon's recent financial performance reveals some concerning trends that merit close attention. Revenue growth has notably decelerated, with the most recent fiscal year ending in 2026 showing only a 4.8% increase to $11.10 billion, compared to prior years' double-digit growth rates. More troubling is the significant drop in net income, falling 12.7% year-over-year to $1.58 billion, and a corresponding decline in operating income. This suggests that the company is struggling to maintain its profitability amidst rising costs, as evidenced by a sharp decline in Q4 net income and margin compression from 20.7% to 16.1%. The free cash flow has also plummeted, reinforcing concerns about the company's financial flexibility and ability to sustain its growth investments.

Opus argues that Lululemon is "mildly undervalued" with a fair value range of $140-$155, citing the company's current valuation metrics such as a TTM P/E of 9.5x as statistically cheap. I agree that these multiples appear attractive for a brand with historically high margins and a strong ROIC of 22.6%. However, I diverge from Opus's optimistic fair value estimation due to the severity of the recent margin compression. The Q4 performance should not be viewed as a mere blip but as indicative of potentially deeper issues in cost management and competitive pressures that might not stabilize quickly. Opus also highlights insider buying as a positive signal, which I find unconvincing given the small scale of the transactions relative to the company's size, diminishing its relevance as a bullish indicator.

I also agree with Opus's skepticism about the "disconnected from fundamentals" thesis proposed by the synthesis. The synthesis posits that the market is overly pessimistic about Lululemon's future prospects, suggesting that the company's fundamentals remain strong. However, the recent earnings decline and margin compression suggest that the market's caution may be warranted. Opus correctly notes that the synthesis underplays the risk of further margin erosion and the potential for a significant re-rating if the company's premium brand status falters.

A careful skeptic might argue that both Opus and I are too focused on short-term margin fluctuations and not enough on Lululemon's long-term strategic initiatives, such as international expansion and product diversification, which could eventually offset current headwinds. They might also contend that the market narrative is overly bearish, discounting the brand's significant consumer loyalty and potential in untapped markets.

Community AI Feedback
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My Notes personal — only you see this
Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.352 · d1100787 · 2026-06-26 11:39:30