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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Low · Gem Score -25 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 54 · Value -89 · Sentiment -70 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $36.85 vs $123.06 at analysis
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
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any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER ·
raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds);
every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.
Palantir Technologies Inc.
PLTR NASDAQPalantir Technologies Inc. is an American software company specializing in data integration, analytics, and artificial intelligence for large, complex organizations. Its primary function is to help institutions connect fragmented data, embed workflows, and support high-stakes operational decision-making across government and commercial settings. Palantir’s core platforms include Gotham for defense, intelligence, and public-sector operations; Foundry for enterprise data operations and analytics; Apollo for software deployment and management across diverse environments; and its Artificial Intelligence Platform, which unifies access to advanced AI and large language models. Today, Palantir serves governments, financial institutions, healthcare providers, manufacturers, energy companies, and other large enterprises across North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and the Middle East. Its software is used in applications such as counterterrorism analysis, crisis response, supply chain optimization, industrial production planning, and risk management. Headquartered in Miami, Florida, with major operations in Denver and other global cities, Palantir occupies a prominent role in the market for secure, mission-critical data and AI infrastructure.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 0.63
Total Equity: $7.49B
Shares: 2,565,197,000
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $1.42B
EBITDA: $1.44B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $1.42B
Revenue: $4.48B
Revenue: $4.48B
Revenue: $4.48B
Total Equity: $7.49B
Tax Rate: 1.4%
Equity: $7.49B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $1.42B
Current Liabilities: $1.18B
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $0.00
Total Equity: $7.49B
Shares: 2,565,197,000
Shares: 2,565,197,000
CapEx: -$33.88M
Shares: 2,565,197,000
Stock Price: $123.06
Net Income: $1.63B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 4:17am (23d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.5B | $1.9B | $2.2B | $2.9B | $4.5B |
| Cost of Revenue | $339.4M | $408.5M | $431.1M | $566.0M | $789.2M |
| Gross Profit | $1.2B | $1.5B | $1.8B | $2.3B | $3.7B |
| Operating Expenses | $1.6B | $1.7B | $1.7B | $2.0B | $2.3B |
| Operating Income | -$411.0M | -$161.2M | $120.0M | $310.4M | $1.4B |
| Net Income | -$520.4M | -$373.7M | $209.8M | $462.2M | $1.6B |
| EBITDA | -$396.1M | -$138.7M | $153.3M | $342.0M | $1.4B |
| EPS | $-0.27 | $-0.18 | $0.10 | $0.21 | $0.69 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.27 | $-0.18 | $0.09 | $0.19 | $0.63 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 9:09am (23d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $2.3B | $2.6B | $831.0M | $2.1B | $1.4B |
| Total Current Assets | $2.9B | $3.0B | $4.1B | $5.9B | $8.4B |
| Total Assets | $3.2B | $3.5B | $4.5B | $6.3B | $8.9B |
| Current Liabilities | $660.1M | $587.9M | $746.0M | $996.0M | $1.2B |
| Long-Term Debt | $0 | — | — | — | — |
| Total Liabilities | $956.4M | $818.8M | $961.5M | $1.2B | $1.4B |
| Total Equity | $2.3B | $2.6B | $3.6B | $5.1B | $7.5B |
| Retained Earnings | -$5.5B | -$5.9B | -$5.6B | -$5.2B | -$3.6B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 4:17am (23d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $333.9M | $223.7M | $712.2M | $1.2B | $2.1B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$12.6M | -$40.0M | -$15.1M | -$12.6M | -$33.9M |
| Free Cash Flow | $321.2M | $183.7M | $697.1M | $1.1B | $2.1B |
| Acquisitions (net) | $0 | $66.7M | $0 | — | — |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | -$200.0M | $0 | $0 | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | $0 | $0 | $0 | -$64.2M | -$75.0M |
| Net Change in Cash | $238.8M | $260.4M | -$1.8B | $1.3B | -$668.5M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 4:17am (23d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +23.6% | +16.7% | +28.8% | +56.2% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +24.5% | +19.8% | +28.2% | +60.3% |
| Operating Income Growth | +60.8% | +174.4% | +158.7% | +355.5% |
| Net Income Growth | +28.2% | +156.1% | +120.3% | +251.6% |
| EBITDA Growth | +65.0% | +210.6% | +123.1% | +321.1% |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-22 02:05Even the bull case prices 7% below today — the ratio here measures the model-vs-market gap, not payoff odds. Another quarter like the worst recent one costs 74%.
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($123.06) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +126% | 35.0% | $114.73 | -7% |
| Base — stabilizes | +84% | 35.0% | $50.82 | -59% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +42% | 35.0% | $19.44 | -84% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | +63% | 35.0% | $31.85 | -74% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
The raw trajectory is genuinely remarkable and I want to acknowledge it before dismantling the price. Quarterly revenue has gone from $678M (Q2 2024) to $1.63B (Q1 2026) — that's 140% in seven quarters, and the sequential acceleration is real: +6.4%, +14.0%, +6.8%, +13.2%, +18.0%, +19.4%, +15.6% Q/Q. Net margin has expanded from 19.8% to 53.3% over the same window, though the Q1 2026 figure almost certainly includes tax benefits or investment gains (operating margin was 31.6% for FY2025, so a 53% net margin is not a repeatable operating result). FCF of $2.10B on $4.48B revenue is a legitimate 47% FCF margin, capex is trivial at $34M, and there's no debt against $1.42B cash. This is not a bad business. It is arguably the cleanest software P&L in the S&P outside of a handful of hyperscalers.
Now the price. $295B market cap on $4.48B TTM revenue is 66x sales; on $2.1B FCF it's 140x. Even if you grant 50% revenue growth for three more years (to ~$15B) and 45% FCF margins (to ~$6.8B), you're paying 43x forward-three-year FCF today — for a company whose commercial segment is still unproven at scale outside the US and whose government revenue is inherently lumpy. The synthesis DCF at $21.94 is almost certainly too punitive — it likely under-weights the demonstrated growth acceleration and doesn't credit the pricing power evidenced in 82% gross margins. But a reasonable reverse-DCF (10% discount, 3% terminal, requiring FCF to compound at ~35% for a decade before decelerating) gets you to roughly $55-70, not $123 and not $22. The synthesis is directionally right, magnitude wrong.
Where I diverge from the prior models: the narrative layer calls durability "moderate" and I'd push back — the government/defense install base with Gotham/Foundry has 10+ year switching costs, and AIP commercial bookings have been the actual growth driver, not just Karp mythology. That said, the contrarian bear case that concerns me is not the multiple, it's the deceleration hiding in plain sight. Look at Q/Q growth: 19.4% → 15.6%. That's still spectacular but it's the first sequential deceleration in the acceleration curve, and at 66x sales the market is priced for continued acceleration, not a plateau. Insider activity is also worth flagging: four sales versus one award in the July 2026 window, small in size but directionally consistent with insiders who see the multiple as stretched. The "neutral" tag from the secondary signals is generous. Also worth noting the anomaly flags on P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA are technically correct but misleading here — earnings are not "near zero," they're $1.63B annually; the multiples are extreme because the price is extreme, not because the denominator is broken.
I agree with the synthesis verdict of overvalued but dissent on the fair value. $22 implies this is a value trap masquerading as growth — it's not; it's a genuine category leader being priced like one and then some. My fair value range is $55-75 based on 25-30x 2027E FCF of ~$4.5B, which gives a 40-55% downside from $123, not 82%. The trade here is not "short PLTR at $123" (widowmaker — narrative-driven names with retail cult followings and accelerating fundamentals can stay expensive for years, see TSLA 2020-2021), it's "do not initiate a long here and trim if you own it." A re-rating catalyst would be one of: (a) a genuine Q/Q growth stumble below 10% sequential, (b) commercial bookings deceleration, (c) Karp departure or health event, or (d) a defense budget reset. Absent those, the stock can grind higher on momentum and narrative for another 12-18 months. But paying 66x sales for a business decelerating from 19% to 16% sequential growth is a bet that requires everything to keep working — and the asymmetry has flipped negative.
GPT Reading
What jumps out first is that the business itself is undeniably real and improving fast. Revenue has gone from $2.23B in 2023 to $2.87B in 2024 to $4.48B in 2025, and the quarterly run-rate now sits at $1.63B in 2026-03-31, which annualizes above $6.5B. That latest quarter grew 84% year over year against $883.9M, and even sequential growth was strong at 15.6% from $1.41B. More important, this is not growth bought with collapsing economics: annual gross margin was 82.4% in 2025, operating margin 31.6%, net margin 36.3%, and free cash flow hit $2.10B on $4.48B of revenue. A software company compounding revenue above 50% while converting nearly half of sales to FCF is rare. The balance sheet is pristine with no debt and $1.42B cash, so there is no financial fragility here. If you only looked at operating performance, you would conclude Palantir has crossed from “interesting platform” into elite software execution.
The issue is that the stock is priced not for elite execution but for something closer to historical software canon. At $295B market cap, investors are paying roughly 66x the 2025 revenue base and around 45x the latest annualized quarterly revenue run-rate. Against $2.10B of free cash flow, that is about 140x FCF; against $1.63B of 2025 net income, about 180x earnings. Those are not just high multiples, they are multiples that require either many years of 35-40% growth with minimal margin giveback or a belief that Palantir becomes foundational infrastructure with a terminal economics profile superior to most software peers. Even if revenue reaches $10B within three years — which would itself be an exceptional outcome from $4.48B — a 30% net margin would imply $3B of earnings, leaving the stock still near 100x those earnings at today’s price. The market is effectively capitalizing success that has not only arrived but already matured.
There is also a subtle quality issue in the eye-popping profitability. The quarterly net margins exploded from 24.2% in 2025-03 to 32.6%, 40.3%, 43.3%, and then 53.3% in 2026-03. That is too steep to treat as clean operating leverage without asking what is underneath. Annual operating income in 2025 was $1.41B while net income was even higher at $1.63B, which usually means non-operating benefits are helping. Likewise, operating cash flow of $2.13B versus net income of $1.63B is excellent, but capex was only $33.9M, so FCF tells you more about the asset-light model than about hidden reinvestment durability. None of this means the numbers are bad; it means the market may be capitalizing peak-margin optics as if they are a permanent steady state. When a stock trades at 65x revenue, even small normalization in growth or margins matters enormously.
The strongest case against my bearish valuation read is straightforward: Palantir may be one of the very few software companies where conventional valuation anchors systematically miss option value. The company has already disproved the old criticism that it could not scale profitably. Revenue growth has reaccelerated, not decelerated, from 29% annual growth in 2024 to 56% on the latest quarter; annual operating margin expanded from 4.2% in 2023 to 10.8% in 2024 to 31.6% in 2025; net income went from a $373.7M loss in 2022 to $209.8M profit in 2023 to $1.63B in 2025. Those are not cosmetic changes. If this is the early innings of a standardizing AI operating layer across both government and enterprise, the “too expensive” argument can stay wrong for years because the denominator keeps leaping higher. A debt-free company with 82% gross margins and 47% FCF margin can absorb a valuation premium that would be absurd for ordinary software vendors.
What would change my mind is continued hypergrowth at this scale. If the next two quarters sustain revenue above $1.80B and then $2.0B while net margins remain above 35% and annual FCF tracks toward $2.8B-$3.0B, then the case that Palantir is growing into a huge fraction of today’s valuation becomes materially stronger. I would also revisit a bearish stance if annual revenue can approach $7B within the next year without margin erosion, because then today’s EV/revenue multiple compresses on fundamentals instead of hope. Conversely, if growth slips back toward 25-30% or the 40-50% quarterly net margins prove non-recurring, the equity has enormous downside because the current price leaves no room for “merely excellent.”
Grok Reading
The numbers describe a genuine operating inflection, not a narrative mirage. Palantir went from $2.87B revenue and $462M net income in 2024 to $4.48B and $1.63B in 2025—56% top-line growth with net margin expanding from the mid-teens into the mid-30s annually and, more strikingly, to 53.3% in the March 2026 quarter on $1.63B of revenue and $870M of net income. Sequential quarters show no stall: $884M → $1.00B → $1.18B → $1.41B → $1.63B. Free cash flow of $2.10B against only $34M of capex and zero debt produces a fortress balance sheet and ~47% FCF margins. Gross margin at 82% and operating margin at 32% confirm software economics have arrived. Earnings CAGR near 178% and recent earnings YoY of 250%+ are the quantitative signature of operating leverage finally catching a scaled commercial and government platform. That part of the story is real and impressive.
The valuation attached to it is not. At $123 and a $295B enterprise, the stock trades at 70× sales, 195× earnings, and roughly 140× free cash flow on the latest annual figures. Even if the run-rate implied by the most recent quarter—call it ~$6.5B revenue and ~$3.5B net income—is sustained and then compounded at 35–40% for several more years, the multiple still embeds a decade of near-flawless execution and permanent scarcity pricing. A simple cross-check: $2.1B of FCF at a generous 40× multiple for elite growth software yields roughly $84B of equity value, or high-thirties per share—less than one-third of the current price. The rule-based and DCF composites landing near $23 are directionally correct even if the precise anchor is debatable; the gap between cash generation and market cap is the dominant fact, not a rounding error.
The strongest counter-argument is that the growth rate and margin trajectory themselves invalidate static multiples. Revenue CAGR of 42%, FCF CAGR of 74%, and a commercial AI platform that is only beginning to scale could justify a prolonged premium if Palantir becomes the default operating system for mission-critical decisioning across defense and large enterprise. Bulls will correctly note that every prior “too expensive” call since profitability arrived has been run over by accelerating numbers, that the balance sheet carries no leverage risk, and that 50%+ incremental net margins mean incremental revenue drops heavily to cash. If the company can print $10B-plus revenue at 40%+ net margins inside five years while retaining pricing power, today’s price becomes merely expensive rather than absurd. That path is conceivable; it is also the path already fully discounted at 70× sales.
I would reverse stance only on clear evidence that the growth algorithm is durable at scale without multiple compression: specifically, two more quarters of ≥40% revenue growth with commercial outpacing government, sustained FCF margins above 40%, and forward guidance that credibly points to $8B+ revenue inside three years without margin giveback. A material multiple re-rating lower on continued delivery would also force a rethink of entry points. Absent those, the business is excellent and the stock is priced for a perfection that leaves no margin of safety.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Palantir has moved decisively from money-losing scale-up to high-margin cash machine: revenue compounded from $1.54B (2021) to $4.48B (2025), gross margin held above 78% and expanded to 82.4%, and operating margin swung from -26.7% to +31.6% in four years. FCF hit $2.10B in 2025 (47% of revenue) with OCF/NI of 1.19x and accruals at -14.3% of assets - earnings are clearly real and cash-backed. Balance sheet is a fortress: $7.18B liquid, zero net debt, Altman Z of 126.76, Beneish M of -1.98. No mechanical red flags on quality.
Verify before trusting this (6)
- Customer concentration and government vs commercial mix in the 10-K - durability of the 56% revenue acceleration
- Contract structure and remaining performance obligations (RPO/backlog) to test revenue durability
- SBC grant-vesting schedule and whether run-rate dilution is decelerating as revenue scales
- Any founder super-voting share structure and governance implications
- Composition of the $7.18B cash - treasuries vs riskier holdings
- Deferred revenue and DSO trends to corroborate the -14.3% accruals reading
The e2e composite fair value sits at $21.94 (signal-adjusted $22.92) against a $123.06 print - an 81% implied downside. Even generously weighting the DCF at $25.48 and ignoring the $2.49 EPV floor as a runaway lowball, the price is roughly 5x a DCF that already bakes in strong growth. The EPV of $2.49 tells you the current earnings stream, absent enormous growth, supports almost nothing of this cap - virtually 100% of the $295B market cap is future growth expectations. That is the definition of priced-for-perfection. Quality is genuinely strong (82% gross margin, 32% op margin, $2.1B FCF), which raises deserved value meaningfully above the naive DCF - but 7.5% annual dilution offsets a chunk of that lift. Even generously granting a premium multiple - say 60x forward FCF on ~$2.5B, or ~$150B - you still get roughly half the current cap. To justify $123 you need Palantir to compound revenue ~30%+ for many years, hold 30%+ margins, and materially slow dilution, all simultaneously. That is a heroic path priced as the base case. Bear narrative (437% above intrinsic) aligns directionally with the math.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Commercial-segment US growth durability and net revenue retention in next 10-Q
- SBC as % of revenue and net share count trajectory vs buyback pace
- Government contract concentration and renewal cadence
- Forward revenue guide and any operating margin ceiling commentary
- FCF conversion excluding SBC add-back to gauge true owner earnings
The macro tape is only mildly constructive (neutral-tilt-tailwind, VIX 16), but PLTR's 1.56 beta and cult-narrative profile mean the tape is not the story here - the narrative is. And the narrative is visibly cracking: the stock is down 40% from its peak, headlines are openly framing it as 'just an LLM wrapper,' and RBC just issued a bearish warning days before the Aug 3-4 earnings print. That is the exact signature of a story-driven, high-multiple name losing its narrative premium under its own weight, independent of the macro. Momentum is still strong on long lookbacks, but the recent tape has rolled over hard - a classic late-narrative fade where the cult (high) is still defending it while marginal buyers walk away. Karp taking public shots at AI peers ('they sell tokens') reads as narrative defense, not offense - a tell that the visionary-founder archetype is on the back foot. Net: heavy narrative and analyst-tone headwind, event-risk headwind into earnings, only partially offset by a benign macro backdrop and residual cult support. The pressure on THIS name right now is decisively downward, though a beat on Aug 3-4 could snap the polarity fast given the cult coefficient.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Aug 3-4 earnings print - specifically commercial-segment growth ex-government, the one metric the bear thesis targets
- Whether other sell-side desks follow RBC's bearish pivot or defend the name
- Post-print options positioning and whether the cult retail bid re-engages on any dip
- Whether the 'LLM wrapper' framing gains further mainstream traction or gets refuted by results
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.
When we made this prediction on Aug 2, 2026, PLTR was $123.06. We expect it to be $103.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $55.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 2, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.