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AGING Analysis Report
Jun 16, 2026
11 days ago · 93% complete · +8 refreshed
Archived report · generated Jun 5, 2026 · 1:13 PM · models: linear-pipeline · cost: $0.353
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Five9, Inc.

FIVN NASDAQ Categories PDF
Technology · Software - Application
San Ramon, CA 94583, United States IPO 2014 five9.com Updated Jun 5, 1:08pm
Price
$22.77
Market Cap
$1.7B
Employees
3,073
Beta
1.45
Avg Volume
3,022,233
CEO
Amit Mathradas
Business Description

Five9, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides cloud software for contact centers in the United States and internationally. The company offers virtual contact center cloud platform that delivers a suite of applications, which enables the breadth of contact center-related customer service, sales, and marketing functions. Its solution enables its clients to manage these customer interactions across various channels, including voice, video, chat, email, website, social media, click-to-call, callback, and mobile channels, as well as through APIs; and provides natural language processing and automatic speech recognition solutions. The company serves customers in various industries comprising banking and financial services, business process outsourcers, consumer, healthcare, technology, and education. Five9, Inc. was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in San Ramon, California.

Business History
Generated: Jun 5, 2026 1:11pm
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 5, 2026 1:08pm (21d ago)
$22.79
-1.67 (-6.83%)
Day Range
$22.60 – $24.94
52-Week Range
$13.29 – $30.38
50-Day MA
$18.72
200-Day MA
$20.38
Volume
1,560,945.40
Analyst Price Targets
Low $21.00
Consensus $27.50
High $40.00
(36 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 76,563,988.00
Float 73,447,845.00
Free Float 95.9%
High free float — 95.9% of shares trade freely, ~4.1% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 5, 2026 1:13pm (21d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 1, 2026 4:35pm (25d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 16, 2026 3:01am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
30.65
Stock Price: $22.77
EPS (Diluted): 0.51
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
1.98
Stock Price: $22.77
Total Equity: $785.82M
Shares: 87,037,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
12.24
Market Cap: $1.74B
Total Debt: $799.01M
Cash: $232.08M
EBITDA: $163.89M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$2.2B
Market Cap: $1.74B
Total Debt: $799.01M
Cash: $232.08M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
54.7%
Gross Profit: $628.03M
Revenue: $1.15B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
2.8%
Operating Income: $32.63M
Revenue: $1.15B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
3.4%
Net Income: $39.42M
Revenue: $1.15B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
7.4%
Net Income: $39.42M
Total Equity: $785.82M
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
2.9%
Operating Income: $32.63M
Tax Rate: 12.3%
Equity: $785.82M
Total Debt: $799.01M
Cash: $232.08M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
4.09
Current Assets: $871.01M
Current Liabilities: $213.01M
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
1.02
Short-Term Debt: $21.40M
Long-Term Debt: $777.61M
Total Debt: $799.01M
Total Equity: $785.82M
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$13.20
Revenue: $1.15B
Shares: 87,037,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$9.03
Total Equity: $785.82M
Shares: 87,037,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$2.31
Operating CF: $226.21M
CapEx: -$24.96M
Shares: 87,037,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.0%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $22.77
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $39.42M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 16, 2026 3:01am
Compares FIVN against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · three lenses
Three separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-06-16 03:11:27
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Starter position — scale in lower 6/10
A decent SaaS compounder (quality +16) trading modestly cheap (+10) at 8x FCF, but dilution is eating the discount — interesting, not table-pounding.
The cruxWhether per-share FCF can actually grow given 6-7%/yr dilution — that single variable decides if 8x headline FCF is a bargain or a value trap.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from FIVN's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionHeavy Dilution
Earnings QualityAdequate / Mixed
The three lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+16
Mixed
edge √Σ 117 · risk √Σ 101 · conf 6/10

Five9 is a scaling contact-center SaaS franchise: revenue compounded from $610M (2021) to $1.15B (2025), gross margin is stable in the low-50s, and the business just crossed into GAAP profitability (OpM +2.8%, NI $39M) with FCF stepping up materially to $201M on $1.15B revenue (~17.5% FCF margin). Liquid cash of $697M (44% of market cap) and $201M FCF mean the business is comfortably self-funding; the 'net debt' is essentially convertible-related and not a survival concern given the cash pile.

The quality blemish is per-share discipline. Diluted shares went 67.5M → 87.0M, a ~6.6% CAGR, with a notable jump from 74.5M to 87.0M in the latest year — that single-year ~17% step-up is larger than SBC alone would explain and warrants checking for convert/acquisition issuance. SBC runs ~12.9% of revenue and buybacks recover only ~6% of it, so the operating improvement is being partially harvested by shareholders, not fully. Earnings quality signals are mixed-to-okay: accruals are negative (cash > earnings, a good sign), Beneish M -2.72 is clean, but the Altman Z of 1.79 is a quirk of an asset-light SaaS with converts rather than genuine distress.

Insider tape shows a coordinated 6/4/2026 sell cluster across multiple officers — not catastrophic in dollar terms (~$1.4M that day) and likely RSU-vest related, but 56 sells vs 1 token buy over 12 months reflects zero conviction buying from management.

Strengths 4
m75
Inflection to real profitability and FCF
OpM moved from -11.2% (2022) to +2.8% (2025); FCF jumped to $201M (~17.5% of revenue) from negative just four years ago — genuine operating leverage on a $1.15B base.
m65
Self-funding with large cash cushion
$697M liquid cash = 44% of market cap; $201M annual FCF means no reliance on capital markets despite carrying convertible debt.
m50
Durable revenue compounding
Revenue CAGR ~17% from $610M to $1.15B over four years with GM stable at 52–55% — recurring CCaaS economics holding up through a tough enterprise-software cycle.
m35
Clean accrual/earnings-quality signature
Accruals -10.8% of assets and Beneish M -2.72; cash flow leads net income, the opposite of an earnings-manipulation profile.
Concerns 4
m70
Heavy dilution erodes per-share gains
Diluted share count grew 67.5M → 87.0M (6.6% CAGR); SBC ~12.9% of revenue with buybacks offsetting only ~6%. Per-share economics lag the business substantially.
m55
Unexplained 17% share-count step-up in latest year
Shares jumped 74.5M → 87.0M in one year, well above SBC run-rate — likely convert dilution or M&A issuance; needs verification but is a material one-time hit to per-share value.
m40
Insider activity skewed heavily to selling
56 sells vs 1 trivial $24K buy over 12 months; coordinated multi-officer sale cluster on 6/4/2026. Likely vest-driven but signals no insider accumulation conviction.
m25
Altman Z 1.79 reflects capital structure, not distress
Model misclassifies asset-light SaaS with convert debt; flag is a false positive given $201M FCF and $697M cash, but worth noting convert terms drive the signal.
This is a decent but not elite business. The operating story is finally working — revenue compounding mid-teens, gross margins steady, and a clean swing to GAAP profit with $200M of real FCF — and earnings look honestly stated. What keeps me from calling it 'Strong' is shareholder treatment: 6.6% annual dilution, SBC at ~13% of revenue, token buybacks, and a fresh 17% one-year share-count jump that quietly transfers value from owners to employees and converts. Combined with a one-way insider sell tape, this reads as a competent operator that runs the P&L for the business and the cap table for itself. Solid franchise, mixed stewardship — hence Mixed leaning Solid.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • What drove the 74.5M → 87.0M diluted share jump in 2025 — convert conversion, settlement of capped call, or stock-funded acquisition?
  • Convertible note maturity schedule, conversion price, and whether capped calls are in place to limit economic dilution.
  • Customer concentration and net revenue retention — is the >$1B run-rate broad-based or carried by a few large enterprise wins?
  • AI/Genius platform attach economics — is the AI revenue mix actually accretive to gross margin or diluting it?
  • Whether the 6/4/2026 insider sales were 10b5-1 scheduled or discretionary.
Valuation / Mispricing
+10
Modestly Cheap
edge √Σ 65 · risk √Σ 55 · conf 5/10
Price $20.66 vs deserved ~$24-26 dilution-adjusted — roughly 15-20% gap, real but not decisive given SBC leakage. attractive below $17.50

Market cap of ~$1.58B against ~$200M of real FCF puts FIVN at roughly 8x FCF — optically cheap for a SaaS compounder growing revenue in the mid-teens with sticky contact-center ARR. The e2e synthesis tags it 'Reasonable Premium' (i.e. some upside but not screaming) which aligns: a steady-compounder narrative at 8x FCF and finally GAAP-positive earnings looks like a setup the market is mildly underpricing relative to peers like NICE/Genesys economics.

The catch — and why I won't call this Undervalued — is shareholder treatment. SBC at ~13% of revenue and a 17% one-year share-count jump means the per-share FCF is leaking ~6-7%/yr to dilution. Deserved value has to be marked down for that: effective FCF yield to existing holders is closer to 6x adjusted than 8x headline. Earnings-quality is 'Adequate/Mixed,' so no extra credit there. Net: price ~$20.66 sits below a deserved value I'd peg around $24-26 on a dilution-adjusted DCF — a real but not fat margin of safety.

The bear case (no moat vs Genesys/NICE, post-Zoom-deal de-rate is permanent, contact center commoditizes with AI) is genuinely in the price at 8x FCF; that's why it's cheap-ish. But nothing here screams 'must own at any price' — it's a fair-to-modestly-cheap setup, not a fat pitch.

Cheap signals 2
m55
~8x FCF for a mid-teens SaaS grower
$1.58B market cap on ~$200M FCF is ~8x — well below typical SaaS comps and reasonable even adjusting for SBC. Implies market is pricing minimal terminal growth.
m35
GAAP profitability inflection not yet re-rated
Just swung to GAAP profit with durable ARR; the stock still trades on its post-2021-Zoom-bust narrative rather than the new financial reality.
Rich / priced-in 3
m45
Dilution silently taxes the FCF yield
6.6% annual share growth and a 17% one-year jump means per-share FCF grows materially slower than business FCF. Cuts effective deserved value by ~15-20%.
m25
No moat premium warranted
Competing with Genesys/NICE without clear differentiation argues against assigning a premium multiple even if absolute growth is decent.
m20
e2e tags it 'Reasonable Premium,' not deep value
The composite fair value signal itself is modest upside, not a screaming gap — consistent with 'modestly cheap,' not 'undervalued.'
Modestly cheap, not a fat pitch. At 8x FCF for a mid-teens grower I get the appeal, but 6-7% annual dilution means I'm running up a down escalator on per-share value. I'd want this closer to $17-18 — call it ~6x dilution-adjusted FCF — before I'd size up. At $20.66 it's a fine hold-or-nibble, not a table-pound buy.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Forward SBC guidance and any commitment to slow share growth / buybacks beyond token level
  • Net retention rate trend — if NRR is slipping below 105%, the compounder thesis weakens and deserved value drops
  • Management's FY guidance on revenue growth and FCF — is mid-teens sustainable or decelerating
  • Any one-time items inside the $200M FCF (working capital, deferred revenue benefit)
General Sentiment
+4
Balanced
tail √Σ 72 · head √Σ 67 · conf 6/10

FIVN sits in a quiet sentiment zone. The market regime is neutral with VIX modestly elevated, and at a 1.45 beta this name would normally amplify any tape move, but there is no decisive tape to amplify right now. Crucially, FIVN carries almost no live narrative pressure: the steady-compounder archetype has minimal intensity and low cult coefficient, so the stock is not being pushed by belief in either direction. It trades on prints, not on story. The bear overhang from the busted 2021 Zoom deal still lingers as a ceiling on multiple, but it is old news, not active selling pressure. Higher-for-longer rates at 4.47% are a mild headwind for enterprise SaaS sentiment broadly, and FIVN's high beta means any risk-off lurch would hit it harder than defensives. Offsetting that, the May 1 earnings beat plus a 200M buyback delivered a 29% pop, analyst consensus is Buy with a 23 target (about 21% above spot), and momentum reads strong_positive. But target revisions this month are zero - tone is stale, not freshly bullish. Net: balanced pressure with a slight positive tilt from the recent print fading into a directionless macro backdrop.

Tailwinds 3
m55
Fresh earnings beat plus buyback
The Q1 beat, accelerating subscription growth, and 200M repurchase drove a 29% move and reset the short-term sentiment frame positive. Still the most recent active catalyst on the tape.
m35
Analyst consensus skewed Buy with upside to target
25 Buys vs 1 Sell and a 23 target vs 18.95 spot provides a soft bid, though zero revisions this month means the tone is stale rather than accelerating.
m30
Strong trailing momentum
Strong_positive momentum score and improving leverage profile feed a constructive technical setup that systematic and trend flows lean into.
Headwinds 3
m45
High beta into a neutral but fragile tape
Beta 1.45 with VIX in the 56th percentile means any shift to risk-off would mark FIVN down faster than the market. No buffer from a defensive profile or story.
m40
Enterprise SaaS rate sensitivity
10y at 4.47% keeps multiple compression risk live for unprofitable-adjacent SaaS cohorts; FIVN gets grouped in even though it is profitable, dragging sentiment.
m30
Dead narrative, no story bid
Post-Zoom-deal collapse the cult coefficient is low and narrative intensity minimal. There is no AI-agent story premium being assigned, so the stock cannot ride the broader AI tape that lifts peers.
Sentiment pressure on FIVN is genuinely close to neutral right now. There is no live narrative pushing it up and no acute panic pushing it down - just a recent earnings beat providing a fading tailwind against a mild macro/rate headwind that its 1.45 beta could amplify if the tape cracks. I lean very slightly constructive given the buyback and analyst skew, but this is a name that trades on prints not pressure, so I would not size based on sentiment - I would wait for either a fresh catalyst or a clearer tape.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Whether any sell-side raises targets in the weeks after the Q1 beat - silence here would confirm stale tone
  • VIX behavior and 10y yield direction; a break to risk-off would hit FIVN's 1.45 beta disproportionately
  • Any AI-agent product announcement from FIVN or peers (NICE, Genesys) that could revive or further bury the narrative
  • Next earnings print - with no story bid, the stock lives and dies on NDR and subscription growth
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
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Three lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), and General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 16, 2026 3:04:46 am

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 1, 2026 4:35pm (25d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $609.6M $778.8M $910.5M $1.0B $1.1B
Cost of Revenue $271.1M $367.5M $432.7M $477.5M $521.1M
Gross Profit $338.5M $411.3M $477.8M $564.4M $628.0M
Operating Expenses $394.7M $498.9M $576.4M $615.7M $595.4M
Operating Income -$56.3M -$87.6M -$98.6M -$51.3M $32.6M
Net Income -$53.0M -$94.7M -$81.8M -$12.8M $39.4M
EBITDA -$8.8M -$38.1M -$23.3M $55.0M $163.9M
EPS $-0.79 $-1.35 $-1.13 $-0.17 $0.51
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 2, 2026 3:07pm (24d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $90.9M $180.5M $143.2M $362.5M $232.1M
Total Current Assets $617.2M $778.7M $924.1M $1.2B $871.0M
Total Assets $1.2B $1.2B $1.5B $2.1B $1.8B
Current Liabilities $157.6M $150.8M $167.2M $641.7M $213.0M
Long-Term Debt $768.6M $738.4M $742.1M $731.9M $777.6M
Total Liabilities $981.8M $934.5M $956.5M $1.4B $1.0B
Total Equity $211.1M $310.0M $538.1M $622.2M $785.8M
Retained Earnings -$228.4M -$323.1M -$404.9M -$417.6M -$378.2M
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 1, 2026 4:35pm (25d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $29.0M $88.9M $128.8M $143.2M $226.2M
Capital Expenditure -$42.2M -$56.2M -$31.2M -$64.6M -$25.0M
Free Cash Flow -$13.2M $32.7M $97.6M $78.6M $201.2M
Acquisitions (net) $0 -$2.0M $0 $0 $0
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks $0 $0 $0 $0 -$50.0M
Net Change in Cash -$129.0M $89.6M -$37.3M $219.3M -$130.1M
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 5, 2026 1:08pm (21d ago)
Metric 2027 2028 2029 2030
Revenue $1.4B
$1.4B – $1.4B
$1.5B
$1.5B – $1.5B
$1.6B
$1.6B – $1.7B
$1.8B
$1.8B – $1.8B
EBITDA $432.9M
$429.8M – $439.2M
$472.8M
$472.1M – $473.4M
$512.5M
$508.6M – $519.2M
$554.0M
$549.7M – $561.2M
Net Income $342.9M
$312.4M – $373.4M
$374.4M
$369.4M – $379.4M
$268.9M
$266.3M – $273.5M
$275.9M
$273.2M – $280.6M
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 1, 2026 4:35pm (25d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +27.8% +16.9% +14.4% +10.3%
Gross Profit Growth +21.5% +16.2% +18.1% +11.3%
Operating Income Growth -55.7% -12.6% +48.0% +163.6%
Net Income Growth -78.6% +13.6% +84.4% +408.1%
EBITDA Growth -332.0% +38.9% +336.3% +198.2%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 5, 2026 1:13pm (21d ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-06-04 Meriweather Tiffany N. S-Sale 9,526.00 $24.81 $236,340
2026-06-04 Kozanian Panos S-Sale 5,869.00 $24.81 $145,610
2026-06-04 Tuckness Matthew E. S-Sale 8,645.00 $24.81 $214,482
2026-06-04 Mansharamani Leena S-Sale 2,556.00 $24.81 $63,414
2026-06-04 Lee Bryan M S-Sale 4,794.00 $24.16 $115,823
2026-06-04 Lee Bryan M S-Sale 6,107.00 $25.13 $153,469
2026-06-04 Lee Bryan M S-Sale 1,406.00 $25.69 $36,120
2026-06-04 Lee Bryan M S-Sale 4,313.00 $24.81 $107,006
2026-06-05 Lee Bryan M S-Sale 1,511.00 $24.25 $36,642
2026-06-04 Dignan Andy S-Sale 2,400.00 $24.15 $57,960
2026-06-04 Dignan Andy S-Sale 2,700.00 $25.07 $67,689
2026-06-04 Dignan Andy S-Sale 545.00 $25.68 $13,996
2026-06-04 Dignan Andy S-Sale 2,558.00 $24.81 $63,464
2026-06-05 Dignan Andy S-Sale 3,073.00 $24.25 $74,520
2026-05-20 Gupta Sagar A-Award 8,972.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-20 Walker Maria C A-Award 8,972.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-20 MARINER JONATHAN D A-Award 8,972.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-20 Iskow Julie A-Award 8,972.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-20 Burdiek Michael J A-Award 8,972.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-20 Barsamian Sue A-Award 8,972.00 $0.00 $0
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for FIVN — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-16 03:05:26
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict Undervalued if 2025 FCF is durable — fair value $28-32 at 10-12x EV/FCF; starter position at $20.66 warranted but size small until Q2'26 confirms SBC discipline and revenue sustains >$310M.

Looking at the raw trajectory first: revenue went $252M→$264M→$279M→$283M→$286M→$300M→$305M over eight quarters — that's a clean accelerating ramp, not deceleration. The "decelerating" tag in revenue confidence looks wrong on sequential reading; YoY growth held at ~10-13% across quarters with Q1'26 at $305M vs Q1'25 $280M = 9.2%. Net income inflected sharply: -$12.8M → -$4.5M → $11.6M → $0.6M → $1.2M → $18M → $19.7M → $18.4M. The $200M FCF on $1.15B revenue (17.5% FCF margin) is real, and it's the second derivative that matters — 2024 op income was -$51M, 2025 was +$32M. That's an $84M swing on $110M of incremental revenue, implying ~75% incremental operating margin. Either this is genuine operating leverage finally showing up after years of S&M overspend, or it's compensation-mix engineering (SBC shifted, hiring frozen). Without SBC disclosed in this file, I can't tell — and that's the single most important missing number.

The synthesis "Reasonable Premium" verdict and the Market Forces "Headwinds/financial engineering for exit" verdict directly contradict each other, and the file gives me no clean way to reconcile them. I lean closer to the synthesis: at $1.58B market cap minus $232M cash = ~$1.35B EV on $201M FCF, that's a 6.7x EV/FCF and ~15% FCF yield on a business growing low-double-digits. That is not a "prove it" valuation, that's a distressed-multiple valuation for a profitable SaaS. The S&P median software EV/FCF is 25-35x. Either the market is right that 2025 FCF is non-recurring (pull-forward, SBC games, working capital), or this is genuinely mispriced by 50%+. The 30% drawdown from $29.71 plus the cluster of June 4, 2026 insider sales (ten transactions same day — looks like 10b5-1 scheduled or post-vest auto-sell, not conviction selling; sizes are small, 1k-10k shares each) is consistent with broad SaaS de-rating, not Five9-specific deterioration.

The contrarian case the models underweight: Five9 competes against Genesys, NICE CXone, Amazon Connect, and increasingly Microsoft Dynamics with Copilot. Contact-center-as-a-service is the SaaS vertical most exposed to AI displacement of seats — every agent replaced by an LLM is a seat Five9 doesn't bill. The 17.5% FCF margin could be the peak before AI deflation hits per-seat pricing in 2026-2027. That's a credible reason the multiple stays compressed even if numbers look cheap. The bull rebuttal is that Five9 monetizes AI agents too (their Genius AI platform), but pricing power on AI minutes is unproven and likely commoditized. The narrative model's "forgotten SaaS" framing is right — this is a stock where you need either a strategic bid (Zoom 2.0) or three more quarters of margin expansion to re-rate.

I dissent mildly from "Reasonable Premium" — at 6.7x EV/FCF with FCF growing 40%+ and revenue accelerating sequentially, this looks closer to undervalued than fairly valued, assuming the FCF is real. The Market Forces verdict overreads the insider activity (small, clustered, likely programmatic) and underweights the operating inflection. The biggest unknowns: SBC as % of revenue (not disclosed here), NRR/churn trajectory (not disclosed), and whether Q1'26's $305M reflects seasonality or sustained reacceleration. If SBC is running >15% of revenue, the FCF number is half as impressive and "Reasonable Premium" is right. If SBC is normalizing toward 10%, this is a $28-32 stock. I'd start a position here with the explicit plan to add on the Q2'26 print if revenue clears $310M and FCF margin holds above 15%, and cut if either slips.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-16 03:05:41
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I agree with Opus's assertion of undervaluation at $20.66 but with a slightly more cautious stance — fair value closer to $25-28, contingent on proving FCF durability and competitive resilience.

In analyzing Five9, Inc., several elements of the data catch my attention. The company's revenue trajectory from $252.1M in Q2 2024 to $305.3M in Q1 2026 reflects a consistent upward trend, highlighting a robust revenue growth of about 20% over the period. This aligns with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.3%, which is respectable given the current market context for SaaS companies. Notably, Five9 achieved positive net income in 2025 after years of losses, with a net income margin improving to 6% from negative figures in 2024. This shift indicates a significant turnaround in operational efficiency. The free cash flow (FCF) of $201.2M in 2025 on $1.15B revenue, translating to a 17.5% FCF margin, is a strong indicator of the company's cash-generating capabilities, although the sustainability of this margin is a point of scrutiny, especially with potential impacts from AI-driven market changes.

Opus argues that the revenue trajectory shows a clean acceleration, countering the "decelerating" label in revenue confidence. I concur with this assessment, as the sequential revenue growth supports a narrative of acceleration rather than deceleration. However, I diverge from Opus's conclusion that the valuation at 6.7x EV/FCF is distressed. While the EV/FCF multiple indeed appears low compared to typical SaaS medians, this discrepancy might reflect market skepticism about the durability of Five9's recent financial performance. Opus's argument that the significant insider selling is likely programmatic rather than indicative of insider pessimism is plausible, yet the timing and volume of these sales cannot be entirely dismissed as inconsequential, as they could signal underlying concerns about future growth prospects or strategic shifts.

Where Opus describes Five9's valuation as undervalued if FCF is sustainable, I view this with some caution. The rapid FCF growth and operating income improvement might mask underlying issues such as potential over-reliance on cost-cutting measures, like reduced stock-based compensation (SBC), which could be unsustainable in the long term. Without detailed SBC figures, it's challenging to assess the true quality of the FCF. Moreover, the competitive landscape, with formidable rivals like Genesys and NICE, poses a credible threat to Five9's market position, especially if AI advancements erode traditional revenue streams faster than new AI-driven opportunities are monetized.

A careful skeptic might argue that both Opus and I overlook broader macroeconomic headwinds and sector-specific risks that could dampen Five9's growth and profitability. These include potential disruptions from economic downturns, changes in enterprise software spending, and the rapid pace of technological change in the contact-center space. A skeptic would also point out that the lack of comprehensive insights into customer retention rates or churn could skew the optimism about revenue sustainability.

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Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.352 · d1100787 · 2026-06-26 11:39:30