Business Description
American Superconductor Corporation (AMSC), along with its affiliated entities, delivers robust, large-scale power infrastructure and resiliency solutions across the globe. Its operations are primarily divided into two distinct segments: Grid and Wind. The Grid segment, marketed under the Gridtec Solutions brand, supplies essential products and services designed to empower electric utilities, industrial operations, and renewable energy developers. These offerings facilitate the seamless connection, transmission, and distribution of electrical power, complemented by expert engineering and planning services. Within this segment, AMSC delivers transmission planning to diagnose issues like grid congestion, suboptimal power quality, and other systemic vulnerabilities. It provides critical grid interconnection solutions for large-scale renewable projects like wind and solar farms, alongside comprehensive power quality and transmission & distribution (T&D) cable systems. Key technologies include its D-VAR® systems for precise control of power flow and voltage within AC transmission networks, the actiVAR™ solution for rapid medium-voltage reactive compensation, and the armorVAR™ system, which enhances power quality, corrects power factor, reduces energy losses, and mitigates concerns from converter-based devices. Furthermore, D-VAR® VVO technology optimizes voltage and reactive power on the distribution network. Additionally, the Grid segment extends its expertise to naval applications, supplying advanced ship protection systems that minimize magnetic signatures, along with integrated power delivery, generation, and propulsion systems, as well as specialized transformers and rectifiers. The Wind segment, operating under the Windtec Solutions brand, focuses on designing cutting-edge wind turbine systems and subsequently licensing these innovative designs to external manufacturers. Beyond the core designs, this segment provides crucial power electronics, sophisticated software control systems, bespoke engineered solutions, and ongoing customer support for wind turbine producers. Its comprehensive design portfolio encompasses various drivetrains and power ratings, starting from 2 megawatts. Established in 1987, AMSC maintains its corporate headquarters in Ayer, Massachusetts.
Business History
Generated: Jun 29, 2026 3:54pmPrice Overview
Last updated: Jun 29, 2026 3:52pm (19h ago)Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 3.12
Total Equity: $555.45M
Shares: 43,902,000
Total Debt: $1.24M
Cash: $144.24M
EBITDA: $25.20M
Total Debt: $1.24M
Cash: $144.24M
Revenue: $299.16M
Revenue: $299.16M
Revenue: $299.16M
Total Equity: $555.45M
Tax Rate: -699.0%
Equity: $555.45M
Total Debt: $1.24M
Cash: $144.24M
Current Liabilities: $138.53M
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $1.24M
Total Equity: $555.45M
Shares: 43,902,000
Shares: 43,902,000
CapEx: -$4.89M
Shares: 43,902,000
Stock Price: $39.85
Net Income: $133.81M
Industry Benchmarks
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · three lenses
AMSC has executed a real business turnaround. Revenue went from $108M (2022) to $299M (2026), a ~29% CAGR, with gross margin expanding from 12.4% to 29.8% and operating margin crossing into positive territory (5.6%) after years of -20% to -30% losses. FCF flipped from -$19.9M to +$18.3M and is now consistently positive. The balance sheet is clean: $144M liquid cash, $143M net cash, Altman Z of 4.94 (safe zone), and accruals of -1.1% with OCF/NI of 1.26x indicating reported earnings are backed by cash. The $133.8M net income in 2026 vastly exceeds $18.3M FCF, suggesting a large non-cash item (likely a deferred tax asset valuation allowance release given the history of NOLs) inflated GAAP earnings - this is why the Beneish M-score flags. The underlying operating earnings are real but more modest. Per-share economics are the real concern: diluted shares grew from 27.2M to 43.9M, a 12.7% CAGR, with SBC at 5.3% of revenue and buybacks recovering only 0.5% of dilution. The business is roughly tripling but share count is up ~61% over the same window, so per-share value creation lags meaningfully. Recent insider activity (June 2026) shows the CEO McGahn and CFO Kosiba selling sizeable blocks with essentially no open-market buying - a mixed-to-cautionary signal at minimum.
Verify before trusting this (6)
- Composition of 2026 net income - confirm whether the gap vs FCF is a deferred tax asset valuation allowance release or other non-cash benefit
- Customer concentration - historically Inox Wind and a few grid customers have driven outsized share of revenue
- Backlog disclosure and book-to-bill to assess durability of the recent growth ramp
- SBC plan structure and any 10b5-1 trading plans behind the June 2026 executive sales
- Segment mix between Grid and Wind and the margin profile of each
- Working capital trends (receivables/inventory days) given the revenue ramp
The e2e composite pegs fair value at $35.28 (signal-adjusted identical), and the market price of $39.85 sits ~13% above that. The earnings-quality lens is favorable (score 2, high quality) so I do not haircut deserved value further, but the company-quality lens explicitly flags ~60% share count growth - which means even a clean per-company turnaround translates to a much weaker per-share value story. At a $1.93B market cap on a niche grid/superconductor supplier just emerging into profitability, the multiple is already discounting continued execution.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Forward order book / backlog growth rate vs current run-rate
- Guidance for FY operating margin sustainability
- SBC and share count trajectory next 4 quarters
- Customer concentration disclosures (utility/grid mix)
AMSC sits inside one of the market's most durable secular stories - grid modernization and energy transition capex - and that narrative is doing real work for the stock: 43% CAGR, +52pp over three years, and an 8-buy / 6-hold analyst skew with a $52 target ~30% above spot. The story is quiet-quality rather than cult, which means the tailwind is steady rather than euphoric, but it is clearly the dominant non-fundamental force on the name. With the bigger AI/data-center power-demand meta-narrative still alive, AMSC gets sympathy bid as a grid pure-play even without its own headline catalyst. The offset is the tape. Regime is only mildly negative (S&P -3.4% off highs, VIX 18) but this is a 3.2-beta small-cap industrial - any risk-off twitch gets amplified 3x here. Recent 34% return trailing the 43% longer trend hints momentum is cooling at the margin, and zero analyst revisions this month means tone is stale rather than accelerating. Net: narrative tailwind > macro chop, but the macro sensitivity is real enough that the read is Tailwind, not Strong Tailwind.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Whether VIX breaks above 22 or S&P extends drawdown - would punish a 3.2-beta name fast
- Any utility/grid capex order announcement or backlog update that re-accelerates the narrative
- Sell-side revisions - 60+ days of zero activity would suggest the story is going stale
- Rotation signals out of energy-transition / grid theme into other secular trades
Deep Analysis
Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 29, 2026 3:59pm (19h ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $108.4M | $106.0M | $145.6M | $222.8M | $299.2M |
| Cost of Revenue | $94.9M | $97.5M | $110.4M | $161.0M | $210.1M |
| Gross Profit | $13.5M | $8.5M | $35.3M | $61.9M | $89.0M |
| Operating Expenses | $34.6M | $41.5M | $46.7M | $62.9M | $72.1M |
| Operating Income | -$21.1M | -$33.0M | -$11.4M | -$1.1M | $16.9M |
| Net Income | -$19.2M | -$35.0M | -$11.1M | $6.0M | $133.8M |
| EBITDA | -$21.6M | -$26.5M | -$2.0M | $12.1M | $25.2M |
| EPS | $-0.71 | $-1.26 | $-0.37 | $0.16 | $3.12 |
| EPS (Diluted) | — | — | — | — | — |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 29, 2026 3:54pm (19h ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $40.6M | $23.4M | $90.5M | $79.5M | $144.2M |
| Total Current Assets | $94.3M | $106.2M | $166.5M | $206.5M | $331.7M |
| Total Assets | $173.9M | $175.6M | $232.8M | $310.5M | $752.2M |
| Current Liabilities | $54.0M | $84.1M | $78.8M | $99.8M | $138.5M |
| Long-Term Debt | $90,000 | $15,000 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Total Liabilities | $64.5M | $93.8M | $88.2M | $113.4M | $196.8M |
| Total Equity | $109.4M | $81.8M | $144.6M | $197.1M | $555.4M |
| Retained Earnings | -$1.0B | -$1.1B | -$1.1B | -$1.1B | -$926.8M |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 29, 2026 3:59pm (19h ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | -$19.0M | -$22.5M | $2.1M | $28.3M | $23.1M |
| Capital Expenditure | $-938,000 | -$1.2M | $-934,000 | -$2.4M | -$4.9M |
| Free Cash Flow | -$19.9M | -$23.7M | $1.2M | $25.9M | $18.3M |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$11.5M | $0 | $0 | -$32.9M | -$72.1M |
| Debt Repayment | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | $-46,000 | $0 | $0 | $-126,000 | $0 |
| Net Change in Cash | -$26.1M | -$23.8M | $66.6M | -$6.9M | $62.2M |
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 29, 2026 3:52pm (19h ago)| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue |
$362.0M $358.2M – $365.9M
|
$417.3M $416.6M – $417.9M
|
$473.9M $467.0M – $480.8M
|
$579.8M $576.2M – $584.6M
|
| EBITDA |
-$23.5M -$23.7M – -$23.2M
|
-$27.1M -$27.1M – -$27.0M
|
-$30.7M -$31.2M – -$30.3M
|
-$37.6M -$37.9M – -$37.4M
|
| Net Income |
$43.9M $43.3M – $44.5M
|
$60.6M $56.6M – $64.6M
|
$67.5M $66.8M – $68.1M
|
$102.3M $101.5M – $103.4M
|
| EPS | — | — | — | — |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 29, 2026 3:59pm (19h ago)| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | -2.3% | +37.4% | +53.0% | +34.3% |
| Gross Profit Growth | -36.8% | +314.1% | +75.3% | +43.9% |
| Operating Income Growth | -56.5% | +65.6% | +90.5% | +1,665.5% |
| Net Income Growth | -82.6% | +68.3% | +154.3% | +2,118.0% |
| EBITDA Growth | -22.8% | +92.6% | +717.5% | +107.6% |
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 29, 2026 3:58pm (19h ago)All SEC Form 4 codes
- P Purchase
- Open-market or private purchase of shares.
- S Sale
- Open-market or private sale of shares.
- A Award / grant
- Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
- D Return to issuer
- Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
- F In-kind (tax)
- Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
- I Discretionary
- Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
- M Option exercise
- Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
- C Conversion
- Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
- E Short expiration
- Expiration of a short derivative position.
- H Long expiration
- Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
- O OTM exercise
- Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
- X ITM exercise
- Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
- G Gift
- Bona fide gift of securities.
- L Small acquisition
- Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
- W Inheritance
- Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
- Z Voting trust
- Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
- J Other
- Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
- K Equity swap
- Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
- U Tender / buyout
- Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.
Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | Dambier Laura A. | S-Sale | 4,000.00 | $37.63 | $150,520 |
| 2026-06-11 | Kosiba John W JR | S-Sale | 5,026.00 | $37.33 | $187,604 |
| 2026-06-11 | Kosiba John W JR | S-Sale | 1,743.00 | $37.85 | $65,975 |
| 2026-06-11 | McGahn Daniel P | S-Sale | 11,508.00 | $37.28 | $429,047 |
| 2026-06-11 | McGahn Daniel P | S-Sale | 4,609.00 | $37.85 | $174,456 |
| 2026-06-08 | Kosiba John W JR | S-Sale | 3,286.00 | $41.50 | $136,371 |
| 2026-06-08 | Kosiba John W JR | S-Sale | 1,549.00 | $42.35 | $65,596 |
| 2026-06-08 | McGahn Daniel P | S-Sale | 4,992.00 | $41.39 | $206,614 |
| 2026-06-08 | McGahn Daniel P | S-Sale | 4,678.00 | $42.19 | $197,381 |
| 2026-04-03 | Donnelly Terence Robert | A-Award | 2,665.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-04-03 | OLIVER DAVID R JR | A-Award | 3,116.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Littlefield Barbara G. | A-Award | 3,116.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Klein Margaret D. | A-Award | 3,116.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-04-03 | House Arthur H | A-Award | 3,116.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Dambier Laura A. | A-Award | 3,116.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-02-24 | OLIVER DAVID R JR | S-Sale | 200.00 | $34.10 | $6,820 |
| 2019-06-18 | OLIVER DAVID R JR | P-Purchase | 200.00 | $8.33 | $1,666 |
| 2025-08-06 | House Arthur H | M-Exempt | 9,703.00 | $6.80 | $65,980 |
| 2025-08-08 | House Arthur H | S-Sale | 9,703.00 | $50.92 | $494,082 |
| 2025-08-06 | House Arthur H | M-Exempt | 9,703.00 | $6.80 | $65,980 |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Looking at the raw numbers first: AMSC printed $299.2M in FY26 revenue against $222.8M prior (+34%), with operating income flipping from -$1.1M to +$16.9M — a real but modest 5.6% operating margin. The $133.8M net income is the eye-popper, but it's almost entirely the Dec-2025 quarter's $117.8M on $74.5M revenue (158% net margin). That's not operations; that's a deferred tax asset valuation allowance release or similar one-time item. Strip it out and "true" FY26 net income is ~$16M on $299M — call it 5.3% net margin, roughly in line with op margin. So the headline P/E of 13.6 and net margin of 44.7% are both fictions for forward purposes; the honest multiple on $16-20M of normalized earnings against a $1.93B cap is ~100x. EV/EBITDA of 74x is the more honest number, and it tells you this isn't cheap.
Where I partially agree with the prior models: the pre-flight call of "pre-profit-platform" is closer to right than the rule-based "mature_earner" tag — AMSC just crossed breakeven on a sustained basis in FY25, and the quarterly trajectory ($40M → $86M over seven quarters) is genuine acceleration, not a steady-state earner. Revenue CAGR of 43% and the grid/Neeltran acquisition tailwind are real. The Market Forces "neutral" call correctly flags the non-recurring earnings issue, which the Valuation Synthesis glosses over by quoting a "reasonable 6.5x P/S." At ~6.5x sales for a company doing ~6% operating margins in a cyclical industrial end-market, that is not reasonable — that's a software multiple on a hardware business. The narrative layer's "85% fundamentals, 15% narrative" split feels generous; I'd put it closer to 60/40 given the gap between $16M normalized earnings and a $1.93B cap.
The contrarian case the models underweight: AMSC's order book is concentrated (Inox Wind has historically been ~30%+ of revenue), and the wind business has burned investors before — this company nearly died in 2011 when Sinovel walked. Grid modernization is real but lumpy; the $86M Q4 print could easily be a backlog pull-forward, and the Revenue Confidence signal already flags "decelerating" quarterly trend on a sequential basis even though YoY looks great. Ten consecutive insider sales in June with zero offsetting buys is not "neutral" — it's a soft negative, particularly after a stock that ran from ~$15 to $70 and is now at $40. The Macro Headwinds tag matters: utility capex is rate-sensitive, and if IRA funding gets clawed back under the current administration, the secular thesis takes a real hit. Balance sheet is fine ($144M cash, no debt disclosed, current ratio 2.4), so survival isn't the question — the question is whether you pay 100x normalized earnings for 30-40% growth that depends on customer concentration and policy.
I dissent mildly from the "High Conviction Required" synthesis — that's a dodge. The honest verdict is that AMSC is priced for the bull case to play out cleanly. At $39.85 you need ~25% sustained revenue growth and operating margins expanding from 5.6% toward 12-15% within three years to justify the multiple. That's plausible — grid capex is real, the Neeltran integration adds scale, and operating leverage on a fixed-cost industrial base is the right direction — but it's not the base case, it's the bull case. Fair value on normalized FY26 earnings of ~$16M growing 25% with 10% terminal op margins lands me closer to $28-32, not $40. The 43% pullback from $70 was warranted; another 20-25% downside on any guide-down or Inox lumpiness is entirely possible. I'd want to see two more quarters of clean operating margin expansion (ex-tax-benefit) before paying this price, or a pullback into the high $20s for a starter.
GPT Critique
Upon reviewing the data for American Superconductor Corporation (AMSC), several elements stand out. The company has indeed shown a notable revenue growth trajectory, with a five-year CAGR of 43.3%, culminating in a 2026 fiscal year revenue of $299.2 million. This growth is significant, especially when compared to the $145.6 million in revenue reported in 2024. The shift from operating losses to a positive operating income of $16.9 million in the latest fiscal year indicates a pivotal operational turnaround. However, the net income of $133.8 million, driven by an anomalous $117.8 million in net income during the December 2025 quarter, drastically inflates profitability figures, suggesting a non-recurring financial event rather than sustainable operations. The company's cash position is strong at $144.2 million with no reported debt, yet its free cash flow of $18.3 million against a market cap of $1.93 billion raises questions about valuation sustainability.
I agree with Opus's assertion that the $133.8 million net income is misleading due to the one-time tax benefit. This anomaly skews the P/E ratio, giving a false impression of value. Opus correctly identifies the normalized earnings of $16-20 million, which paints a more realistic picture of AMSC’s profitability and supports the argument for a high multiple on these earnings. The EV/EBITDA of 74x is indeed a better reflection of the company's valuation challenges—an insight I thoroughly concur with.
Where I diverge from Opus is in the evaluation of company maturity. While Opus leans towards the "pre-profit-platform" classification, I see AMSC as straddling a transition between this and a "mature earner" due to its recent, albeit fragile, operational profitability and consistent revenue growth. Furthermore, the narrative that AMSC is priced for perfection aligns with my view that the current price assumes not only continuous growth but also improved margins—expectations that may not materialize given the utility sector's inherent cyclicality and dependency on policy-driven funding.
Additionally, I echo Opus's concerns about the concentrated customer base, particularly the reliance on Inox Wind, which poses a significant risk should market conditions shift. The insider sales activity, while labeled as "neutral," should indeed be viewed with caution as it suggests potential overvaluation concerns among insiders. The skepticism regarding macroeconomic headwinds, such as potential reversals in IRA funding, is another point of agreement, highlighting vulnerabilities in the bullish thesis.
A careful skeptic might argue that despite these challenges, AMSC's potential to capitalize on the global energy transition and grid modernization trends could justify its current valuation. They might also posit that the company's strategic position in a high-growth sector could lead to unexpected competitive advantages and market share gains, particularly if AMSC successfully integrates recent acquisitions and expands its product offerings.