For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page
What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for ATI Inc. (ATI) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-10-07): Designation Low · Gem Score -26 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 35 · Value -66 · Sentiment 51 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $26.73 vs $214.52 at analysis
Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable
reference-name attribute you can cite):
profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
More for machine readers: site briefing at
/llms.txt ·
any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER ·
raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds);
every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.
ATI Inc.
ATI NYSEATI Inc. is a specialty materials company that produces high-performance metals and advanced components for demanding industrial applications. Its product portfolio includes titanium and titanium alloys, nickel-based alloys, superalloys, stainless and specialty steels, zirconium, hafnium, niobium, tungsten materials, forgings, and castings. ATI serves customers across aerospace and defense, specialty energy, medical, electronics, oil and gas, chemical processing, and other industrial markets. The company operates through integrated segments focused on high-performance materials and advanced alloys, supporting applications that require strength, heat resistance, corrosion performance, and precision manufacturing. ATI Inc. is headquartered in Dallas, Texas, and is recognized as a global supplier of engineered materials used in critical performance environments.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 2.85
Total Equity: $1.92B
Shares: 141,800,000
Total Debt: $1.75B
Cash: $416.70M
EBITDA: $809.00M
Total Debt: $1.75B
Cash: $416.70M
Revenue: $4.59B
Revenue: $4.59B
Revenue: $4.59B
Total Equity: $1.92B
Tax Rate: 19.9%
Equity: $1.92B
Total Debt: $1.75B
Cash: $416.70M
Current Liabilities: $1.01B
Long-Term Debt: $1.72B
Total Debt: $1.75B
Total Equity: $1.92B
Shares: 141,800,000
Shares: 141,800,000
CapEx: -$280.60M
Shares: 141,800,000
Stock Price: $214.52
Net Income: $404.30M
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 28, 2026 12:50am (40d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.8B | $3.8B | $4.2B | $4.4B | $4.6B |
| Cost of Revenue | $3.1B | $3.1B | $3.4B | $3.5B | $3.6B |
| Gross Profit | $714.2M | $714.2M | $802.6M | $898.2M | $1.0B |
| Operating Expenses | $426.9M | $398.1M | $336.2M | $289.3M | $366.1M |
| Operating Income | $287.3M | $316.1M | $466.4M | $608.9M | $640.9M |
| Net Income | $130.9M | $323.5M | $410.8M | $367.8M | $404.3M |
| EBITDA | $430.2M | $459.0M | $612.5M | $760.4M | $809.0M |
| EPS | $1.03 | $2.54 | $3.21 | $2.82 | $2.92 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.96 | $2.23 | $2.81 | $2.55 | $2.85 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 28, 2026 12:30am (40d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $584.0M | $584.0M | $743.9M | $721.2M | $416.7M |
| Total Current Assets | $2.5B | $2.5B | $2.7B | $2.9B | $2.7B |
| Total Assets | $4.4B | $4.4B | $5.0B | $5.2B | $5.1B |
| Current Liabilities | $963.9M | $963.9M | $977.1M | $1.2B | $1.0B |
| Long-Term Debt | $1.7B | $1.7B | $2.1B | $1.7B | $1.7B |
| Total Liabilities | $3.3B | $3.3B | $3.5B | $3.3B | $3.2B |
| Total Equity | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.5B | $2.0B | $1.9B |
| Retained Earnings | $176.9M | -$480.9M | -$70.1M | $64.3M | $468.7M |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 28, 2026 12:50am (40d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $224.9M | $224.9M | $85.9M | $407.2M | $614.3M |
| Capital Expenditure | -$130.9M | -$130.9M | -$200.7M | -$239.1M | -$280.6M |
| Free Cash Flow | $94.0M | $94.0M | -$114.8M | $168.1M | $333.7M |
| Acquisitions (net) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | -$23.1M | -$23.1M | $399.8M | -$29.6M | -$182.6M |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | -$139.9M | -$139.9M | -$85.2M | -$260.0M | -$470.0M |
| Net Change in Cash | -$103.7M | -$103.7M | $159.9M | -$22.7M | -$304.5M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 28, 2026 12:50am (40d ago)| Metric | 2023 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +0.0% | +8.8% | +4.5% | +5.2% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +0.0% | +12.4% | +11.9% | +12.1% |
| Operating Income Growth | +10.0% | +47.5% | +30.6% | +5.3% |
| Net Income Growth | +147.1% | +27.0% | -10.5% | +9.9% |
| EBITDA Growth | +6.7% | +33.4% | +24.1% | +6.4% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 26, 2026 8:18am (42d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-08-16 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2016-05-25 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2016-03-09 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2015-12-17 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2015-08-17 | $0.18 | — | — | — |
| 2015-05-22 | $0.18 | — | — | — |
| 2015-03-09 | $0.18 | — | — | — |
| 2014-12-12 | $0.18 | — | — | — |
| 2014-08-18 | $0.18 | — | — | — |
| 2014-06-03 | $0.18 | — | — | — |
| 2014-03-10 | $0.18 | — | — | — |
| 2013-12-18 | $0.18 | — | — | — |
| 2013-08-19 | $0.18 | — | — | — |
| 2013-05-20 | $0.18 | — | — | — |
| 2013-03-11 | $0.18 | — | — | — |
| 2012-12-13 | $0.18 | — | — | — |
| 2012-09-17 | $0.18 | — | — | — |
| 2012-05-25 | $0.18 | — | — | — |
| 2012-03-12 | $0.18 | — | — | — |
| 2011-12-16 | $0.18 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Computed 2026-10-07 02:01A +1σ run of quarters pays -78%; a −1σ run costs 86%. Ratio -0.9:1 (μ 5.2%, σ 5.4% , 15 pairs).
Older method (repeat-worst-quarter): -0.8 : 1
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($214.52) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +12% | 17.3% | $73.61 | -66% |
| Base — stabilizes | +8% | 15.0% | $56.83 | -74% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +4% | 12.8% | $42.97 | -80% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | +0% | 8.2% | $25.95 | -88% |
| Upside — a +1σ run of quarters (v2) | +11% | 11.1% | $46.59 | -78% |
| Stress — a −1σ run of quarters (v2) | -0% | 9.6% | $29.11 | -86% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-08-28 00:59The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.
Claude Reading
The raw numbers show a business that's genuinely accelerating, not a fantasy. Q2 2026 revenue of $1.26B is up 10.5% YoY from $1.14B, and net income of $151M vs $100.7M is +50% YoY with margins expanding from 8.8% to 12.0%. The four-quarter trailing net income is roughly $475M (vs $404M FY2025), so a real run-rate P/E on TTM is closer to 61x, and on annualized Q2 pace (~$600M) it's ~49x. Still expensive, but the "75x" headline understates the earnings ramp. Gross margin has climbed from 18.6% (2022) to 22.0% (2025) and operating margin from 7.5% to 14.0% over the same window — this is real operating leverage, not a one-quarter blip. FCF of $334M on $4.59B revenue is 7.3% conversion, which for a capital-intensive specialty metals shop mid-capex-cycle ($281M capex) is defensible, not "poor quality" as the synthesis claims.
The synthesis verdict of $16.63 fair value against $214.52 is not analysis — it's a broken DCF. A $29B market cap business generating $600M+ run-rate earnings, 21% ROE, 16% ROIC, and growing revenue high single digits with expanding margins is not worth $2.3B. Whatever model produced that number is either using a punitive terminal growth rate against a company at an inflection or double-counting cyclicality. Market Forces calling this "competitive displacement" contradicts the actual print — you don't post record margins and 10%+ revenue growth while being displaced. I'd throw out both the DCF anchor and the Market Forces read. The Narrative layer is more honest: yes, there's an aerospace/defense scarcity story doing work here, but it's not 93% narrative when earnings are compounding at this rate.
That said, the contrarian case is real and I won't dismiss it. Specialty metals is cyclical — ATI's own history shows it (2022 NI of $131M on the same revenue base as 2023's $411M). Peak aerospace build rates, F-35 lot pricing, and titanium tightness are cycle-dependent; a Boeing production stumble or a defense CR could compress this fast. Six insider sales in July-August 2026 with zero buys, clustered on 8/17, is not "neutral" — it's a soft negative when the stock is at all-time highs. At 15.9x book and 6.6x sales, any margin normalization back toward 8-9% net would justify a 40%+ drawdown. The right bear framing isn't "worth $17"; it's "worth $130-150 at mid-cycle earnings of ~$400M and a 20x multiple." The bull framing is "worth $240-280 if $600M run-rate holds and re-rates to 40-45x on quality." Current $214 sits in the upper half of that band.
Net: I dissent from the synthesis's overvalued-by-92% conclusion as numerically absurd, but I partially agree with the direction. ATI is richly priced for a cyclical, and the insider selling plus 49x forward multiple leave no margin of safety. The mature_earner archetype is wrong — this is a cyclical inflecting, and the pre-flight's read that the market is pricing "structural margin improvement" is correct and the key risk. I'd call fair value $155-175 on a normalized-earnings basis with a quality premium, meaning ~20-25% downside, not 92%. Not a short (earnings momentum is too strong and narrative durability is real while F-35 and NATO spending hold), but not a buy here either. Wait for either a cyclical scare that resets the multiple toward $150, or evidence that $600M+ earnings are the new baseline rather than a peak.
GPT Reading
The raw operating picture is actually pretty good; the stock price is the problem. ATI has put up a credible earnings progression: annual revenue rose from $3.84B to $4.59B over the last four reported years, while operating income expanded from $287M to $641M, taking operating margin from 7.5% to 14.0%. Quarterly numbers show that improvement largely holding rather than collapsing: the last four quarters sum to about $4.72B of revenue and roughly $476M of net income, ahead of the 2025 annual base. The most recent quarter was especially strong at $1.26B revenue and $151M net income, a 12% net margin versus 8.8% in the year-ago June quarter. That says ATI is not some deteriorating cyclical caught in a squeeze; it is executing, and the margin profile has structurally improved from where it was in 2022-2023.
But even giving full credit for that improvement, the valuation being carried here looks wildly stretched for a metal producer. At $29.2B market cap on roughly $404M of 2025 net income, the stated 75x P/E is already hard to justify; even if I annualize the stronger recent run-rate to something like $475M-$520M of earnings, the stock is still around 56-61x earnings. On sales, 6.6x for a business with 22% gross margin and 14% operating margin is extreme. On cash flow, the disconnect is just as stark: $333.7M of free cash flow implies a roughly 1.1% FCF yield at today’s equity value. For an industrial name with $1.75B of debt and only $416.7M of cash, that is a software-style multiple on manufacturing economics. The balance sheet is fine, current ratio 2.66 is healthy, and ROIC at 15.8% is respectable, but none of that bridges the gap from “good company” to “deserves nearly 40x EV/EBITDA.”
What stands out to me is that the market is paying for a permanence that the historical data does not prove. Revenue CAGR is only 4.8%; this is not a business compounding top line at 20%+ where today’s multiples might be an advance payment on future scale. Net income has also been noisier than the bullish narrative implies: 2023 annual net income of $410.8M was actually above 2025’s $404.3M despite much lower operating income, which tells you below-the-line items can materially move reported EPS and make simple multiple work messy. In other words, the quality of the improvement is real at the operating level, but not so clean and explosive that I can underwrite a premium this far above normal industrial ranges. The cluster of insider sales in July and August does not prove a top, but it certainly does not argue that management sees obvious undervaluation at $214.
The best case against my view is straightforward: ATI may have crossed from cyclical commodity-adjacent metal fabrication into scarce, strategic materials with far better pricing power than legacy comparisons capture. If quarterly revenue is now tracking near a $5.0B run-rate and net margin is pushing into the 10-12% zone, earnings power could be closer to $600M than $400M in the next year or two. In that world, today’s price drops toward the mid-40s P/E range, still rich but less absurd if investors believe aerospace, defense, and titanium/superalloy constraints are durable. The business is also clearly not cash-burning or financially strained: $614M of operating cash flow and double-digit ROE/ROIC support the argument that this is a higher-quality industrial than the bears allow. I weigh that differently because even a generous $600M earnings power still leaves the stock priced for perfection, and perfection is rarely the right underwriting assumption in a capital-intensive cyclical end market.
What would change my mind is not another decent quarter; ATI needs to prove a step-function in normalized earning power. If the company can sustain revenue above $1.25B per quarter while holding net margin at 11-12% for several quarters, that gets annualized earnings toward $550M-$600M with more credibility. I would also want free cash flow to move materially higher—think $500M+ annual FCF rather than $334M—so the valuation is supported by cash and not just accounting profit. Short of that, I see a very solid operator priced like a strategic monopoly. That is too much to pay.
Grok Reading
The numbers on ATI tell a story of a competent, moderately growing specialty metals business that the market has re-rated into something it is not. Revenue has ground higher at a 4.8% CAGR to $4.59B in 2025, with the latest quarter printing $1.26B and a 12% net margin—the best print in the series. Annual operating income climbed from $287M to $641M over four years and free cash flow of $334M on $614M of operating cash is real. ROE at 21% and ROIC at 16% are respectable for a fabricator. None of that, however, supports a $29B enterprise valued at 75x earnings, 6.6x sales, and 38x EV/EBITDA. At a normalized mid-cycle industrial multiple of 18–22x on trailing net income near $400M, the equity is worth roughly $50–65; even stretching to 25x on peak-cycle optimism and giving full credit for aerospace mix only gets you into the $80s. Everything above that is narrative premium on titanium scarcity and defense permanence.
What stands out most is the disconnect between the trajectory and the multiple. Recent earnings yoy is +10% and sequential margins are expanding, yet earnings CAGR over the fuller window is still slightly negative at –0.8%. Gross margin sits at 22% and net at 9%—solid for the industry, nowhere near the 15%+ net the current P/E implicitly requires on a sustained basis. Balance sheet is manageable (net debt roughly $1.3B, current ratio 2.7, D/E 0.91), and cash generation covers the modest dividend, but FCF conversion quality is flagged as poor and capex at $281M is already elevated. Insider activity is a quiet negative: a cluster of open-market sales totaling tens of thousands of shares in July–August 2026 with no offsetting buys. The rule-based “mature earner” label is correct; the market is simply refusing to price it as one.
The strongest case against this read is the aerospace/defense scarcity story, and it is not frivolous. If ATI is genuinely the sole scaled domestic source of aerospace-grade titanium and nickel superalloys, and if F-35, commercial narrowbody ramps, and NATO rearmament keep order books full for half a decade, then mid-teens net margins and mid-single-digit volume growth could compound into something closer to a $100–120 stock under a scarcity multiple. Believers will also point to the latest quarter’s 12% net margin and $151M of net income as proof the operating leverage is finally arriving, and to the geopolitical/CFIUS moat as a reason the multiple need never mean-revert to industrial norms. I weigh that differently because capacity can and will be added, commercial aerospace normalizes, and defense budgets are political. A 93% narrative premium on top of already generous fundamentals leaves almost no room for any of those mean-reversions; the stock is priced for the best case to arrive on schedule and then never end.
I would reverse course if trailing-twelve-month net margins sustain above 14% with revenue growth accelerating through 12% for two consecutive years, or if multi-year take-or-pay aerospace contracts lock in pricing that makes 38x EBITDA look earned rather than hoped. A clean FCF print above $500M with improving conversion would also force a higher anchor. Absent that evidence, the gap between $214 and any cash-flow-based fair value remains extreme.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
ATI has strung together a clean multi-year improvement: revenue $3.84B to $4.59B, gross margin 18.6% to 22.0%, operating margin 7.5% to 14.0%, and FCF from $94M to $333.7M. Earnings integrity looks sound - OCF/NI 1.05x, accruals just 0.4% of assets, Beneish M at -2.75, and Altman Z at 7.34 in the safe zone. Diluted share count has fallen from 151.2M to 141.8M (-1.6% CAGR), with buybacks running 759% of SBC and SBC only 0.6% of revenue - genuine per-share value concentration rather than optical growth. The main blemish is the balance sheet: net debt around $1.75B against $416.7M of cash (net cash -$1.33B, cash only 1.4% of market cap). With $333.7M of FCF that is manageable and covered, but it is a constraint rather than a cushion, and it disqualifies any 'fortress' framing. Aerospace/defense end-market exposure implies real cyclicality that hasn't been tested here. Insider activity is one-sided sales (6 sells, $11.8M, no buys), though modest in size and not a decisive signal on business quality.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Debt maturity ladder and covenants against the $1.75B gross debt
- Customer concentration in aerospace (Boeing/Airbus/engine OEMs) from 10-K
- Reason for the -$114.8M FCF year - working capital build or capex spike?
- Pension/OPEB obligations, historically material for legacy specialty metals firms
- Segment mix and whether HPMC vs AA&S margins are both improving or one is masking the other
The e2e composite fair value of $18.30 (signal-adjusted $16.63) is almost certainly a runaway DCF/EPV artifact - a ~92% implied downside on a profitable, ~$29B specialty metals franchise is not credible and I discount it heavily. Even so, both methods (DCF $14.82, EPV floor $25.26) point in the same direction: on trailing cash economics, this business does not underwrite anywhere near $214. Something like a normalized mid-cycle EPV in the $40-70 range is more defensible, and even generous aerospace/defense growth math struggles to justify today's tape without heroic multiple assumptions. The Strong quality grade and clean earnings raise deserved value, but $1.75B net debt and aerospace cyclicality cap how far. Market is pricing sole-domestic-supplier scarcity, F-35 ramp, and NATO rearmament as a durable multi-year pricing regime. That may partly come true, but at ~$29B cap the upside case is already the base case in the quote. Margin of safety is negative; the asymmetry favors patience.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Backlog and long-term agreement pricing/duration in latest 10-Q and transcript
- Segment mix and incremental margins on aerospace/defense capacity adds
- Free cash flow conversion and capex trajectory through the expansion cycle
- Debt maturity ladder and refinancing terms
- Management guidance for through-cycle margins vs current peak
ATI is riding a powerful, stock-specific narrative: sole domestic producer of aerospace-grade titanium and superalloys, CFIUS-protected, geopolitically essential, capacity-constrained into a defense/NATO rearmament and F-35 ramp cycle. Intensity is strong, durability moderate, cult medium - that is the dominant force on this tape and it is a tailwind. Recent flow reinforces it: Bloomberg 500 index inclusion (mechanical buying into September 10), a Zacks momentum callout, and 'what if you bought 10 years ago' retrospective pieces - all classic late-stage strength signals that keep retail and momentum funds engaged. Macro backdrop is mildly supportive: risk-on regime (+40), VIX 14.5, S&P near highs. With beta ~1.0, ATI gets a normal share of that lift, and as an aerospace/defense industrial it sits in a sector the market currently favors. The offset is that 10y at 4.66% and market PE 26 create a fragile ceiling for narrative-priced names, and the bear framing (price is 93% story vs DCF) means any crack - defense budget wobble, aerospace order softness, capacity execution slip - would hit hard because there is no valuation cushion. But none of those cracks are in the current news flow. Net: the pressure right now is up.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Any softening in F-35 production or NATO defense budget headlines
- Analyst target revisions - are sell-side raising into strength or going quiet?
- Post Sept 10 index-add flow: does momentum persist once mechanical buying ends?
- Commercial aerospace order cadence from Boeing/Airbus - any normalization signal
- Insider selling on strength - a common late-narrative tell
The world is re-arming and re-fleeting simultaneously: Western defense budgets are rising and commercial aero is still rebuilding narrowbody output, and both draw on the same scarce Western titanium/nickel melt and forging base. That is a multi-year structural tailwind for anyone holding qualified capacity, and ATI holds a sole-domestic position in several critical alloys. The constraint is physical, so the growth shows up as price and mix more than volume — which is exactly ATI's print. Offsetting this: macro is a headwind with the 10y at 4.66%, making a capex-heavy expansion more expensive, and the same tightness pulls competitors' capital into the category, which is likely part of why ATI is growing slower than the industry. Net: a genuinely good place to be, growing at mid-single digits with earnings leverage — not a hypergrowth market.
When we made this prediction on Aug 28, 2026, ATI was $212.28. We expect it to be $192.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $110.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 28, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.