Business Description
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD), established in 1969 and headquartered in Santa Clara, California, operates as a global leader in the semiconductor industry. The company organizes its extensive operations into two primary segments: Computing and Graphics, and Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom. In its Computing and Graphics division, AMD develops a range of products including x86 microprocessors (often as accelerated processing units), chipsets, and various graphics processing units (GPUs), encompassing discrete, integrated, data center, and professional variants, alongside providing development services. The Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom segment focuses on server and embedded processors, bespoke System-on-Chip (SoC) products, and foundational technology for popular game consoles, also offering associated development support. AMD's diverse product lineup features processors for desktop and notebook personal computers under well-known brands such as AMD Ryzen, Ryzen PRO, Ryzen Threadripper, Threadripper PRO, AMD Athlon, Athlon PRO, AMD FX, AMD A-Series, and PRO A-Series. Discrete GPUs for these PCs are offered through the AMD Radeon graphics and AMD Embedded Radeon graphics brands, while professional graphics solutions include AMD Radeon Pro and AMD FirePro. Furthermore, the company provides high-performance accelerators for servers, including Radeon Instinct, Radeon PRO V-series, and AMD Instinct, along with AMD EPYC microprocessors designed for server environments. Its embedded processor solutions span multiple brands, such as AMD Athlon, AMD Geode, AMD Ryzen, AMD EPYC, AMD R-Series, and G-Series. AMD also produces chipsets under its own trademark and crafts customer-specific solutions leveraging its CPU, GPU, and multimedia expertise, including specialized semi-custom SoC products. AMD reaches its wide array of clients, which comprise original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), public cloud service providers, original design manufacturers (ODMs), system integrators, independent distributors, online retailers, and add-in-board manufacturers. The company's sales and distribution network includes its direct sales force, independent distributors, and dedicated sales representatives.
Business History
Generated: Jun 23, 2026 3:03amPrice Overview
Last updated: Jun 23, 2026 3:00am (4d ago)Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 2.67
Total Equity: $63.00B
Shares: 1,636,000,000
Total Debt: $3.85B
Cash: $5.54B
EBITDA: $7.28B
Total Debt: $3.85B
Cash: $5.54B
Revenue: $34.64B
Revenue: $34.64B
Revenue: $34.64B
Total Equity: $63.00B
Tax Rate: -2.5%
Equity: $63.00B
Total Debt: $3.85B
Cash: $5.54B
Current Liabilities: $9.46B
Long-Term Debt: $2.97B
Total Debt: $3.85B
Total Equity: $63.00B
Shares: 1,636,000,000
Shares: 1,636,000,000
CapEx: -$974.00M
Shares: 1,636,000,000
Stock Price: $551.63
Net Income: $4.34B
Industry Benchmarks
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · three lenses
AMD is executing a credible compute-platform expansion: revenue scaled from 16.4B in 2021 to 34.6B in 2025 (about 20% CAGR), gross margin recovered from a 44.9% trough in 2022 back to 49.5%, and operating margin rebuilt from 1.8% in 2023 to 10.7% in 2025. Net income jumped from 854M to 4.34B and FCF from 1.12B to 6.74B in two years - that is real operating leverage, and OCF/NI of 1.88x with accruals at -2.8% of assets says the earnings are cash-backed, not manufactured. Beneish M of -2.76 and Altman Z of 39.76 corroborate clean books and a fortress-style balance sheet (10.55B liquid, 6.71B net cash). The blemish is dilution. Diluted shares went from 1.23B (2021) to 1.64B (2025) - a roughly 7.4% CAGR driven mostly by the Xilinx stock deal, with SBC running 4.7% of revenue. Buybacks at 177% of SBC have stabilized the count near 1.64B for the last two years, which is the right direction, but per-share compounding has materially lagged the headline business growth over the full window. Insider tape is routine: CEO Su and others selling via option-exercise and scheduled programs, no open-market buys - a neutral signal, not a red flag. Net-net this looks like a structurally improving, cash-generative, well-capitalized franchise with a credible AI/data-center tailwind. Quality is high; the share-count history is the only meaningful demerit on a per-share basis.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Data center vs client/gaming/embedded segment mix and growth contribution in 2025 - how concentrated is the inflection in MI300/MI325 ramp?
- Customer concentration in data center GPU revenue (hyperscaler share) per 10-K risk factors
- Forward share-count guidance and any remaining Xilinx-related issuance overhang
- Inventory and purchase-commitment levels relative to AI demand assumptions
- R and D as percent of revenue trend vs Nvidia/Intel to confirm reinvestment discipline
AMD trades at $551.63 for a $899B market cap on roughly $30B trailing revenue and mid-single-digit-billion GAAP earnings - call it 150x+ trailing earnings and ~30x sales. The e2e synthesis itself flags 'High Conviction Required,' which is code for the multiple needing heroic assumptions to clear. To deserve $900B you have to underwrite AMD capturing a durable, double-digit share of a multi-hundred-billion AI accelerator TAM at NVIDIA-like margins, AND defending server CPU share against an Intel that is finally shipping competitive nodes. That is the bull case fully priced in, with little left for the investor.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- MI350/MI400 data center GPU revenue run-rate and gross margin trajectory
- hyperscaler commitments and customer concentration disclosure
- server CPU share data vs Intel Granite Rapids in next 2 quarters
- diluted share count trajectory and buyback pace vs SBC
- forward EPS guide quality - one-time tax/IP items
The dominant force on AMD right now is the AI-infrastructure narrative, which remains intense and is actively pulling capital into the entire compute cohort (Lam, Broadcom, Dell, NVDA all in the news for AI capex). AMD is firmly inside that story as the credible number-two to NVIDIA, and the tape rewards that: shares closed +2.65% on a down market day, momentum is strong-positive, and four fresh target revisions this month average $582.50 - well above both the stale consensus target ($452.91) and spot. That divergence between backward-looking consensus and live revisions is a classic tailwind tell. Against that, the macro tape is only mildly constructive (neutral, VIX 16.8, 10y at 4.51%) and AMD's 2.49 beta means any risk-off flinch hits this name roughly 2.5x the index - the overnight megacap tech selloff headline is the warning shot. Add a fresh Intel narrative crack (risk production on a new node, framed explicitly as a warning to AMD holders) and you have a real, name-specific headwind nibbling at the share-gain leg of the bull case. Net: narrative and analyst flow are pushing up harder than macro and the Intel jab are pushing down, but the cushion is thinner than the price action suggests given the beta.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Whether the Intel node-progress narrative gains traction in sell-side notes or stays a one-off headline
- VIX behavior - a move above 20 would punish AMD's beta disproportionately
- Continuation of upward target revisions vs any first downgrade as price approaches new revision avg ($582)
- AI capex commentary from hyperscaler earnings - the load-bearing pillar of the narrative
- Any ROCm/CUDA share-of-mind shifts in customer announcements
Deep Analysis
Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 23, 2026 3:04am (4d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $16.4B | $23.6B | $22.7B | $25.8B | $34.6B |
| Cost of Revenue | $8.5B | $13.0B | $12.2B | $13.1B | $17.5B |
| Gross Profit | $7.9B | $10.6B | $10.5B | $12.7B | $17.2B |
| Operating Expenses | $4.3B | $9.3B | $10.1B | $10.8B | $13.5B |
| Operating Income | $3.6B | $1.3B | $401.0M | $1.9B | $3.7B |
| Net Income | $3.2B | $1.3B | $854.0M | $1.6B | $4.3B |
| EBITDA | $4.2B | $5.5B | $4.1B | $5.3B | $7.3B |
| EPS | $2.61 | $0.85 | $0.53 | $1.01 | $2.67 |
| EPS (Diluted) | — | — | — | — | — |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 23, 2026 3:00am (4d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $2.5B | $4.8B | $3.9B | $3.8B | $5.5B |
| Total Current Assets | $8.6B | $15.0B | $16.8B | $19.0B | $26.9B |
| Total Assets | $12.4B | $67.6B | $67.9B | $69.2B | $76.9B |
| Current Liabilities | $4.2B | $6.4B | $6.7B | $7.3B | $9.5B |
| Long-Term Debt | $1.0M | $2.5B | $1.7B | $1.7B | $3.0B |
| Total Liabilities | $4.9B | $12.8B | $12.0B | $11.7B | $13.9B |
| Total Equity | $7.5B | $54.8B | $55.9B | $57.6B | $63.0B |
| Retained Earnings | -$1.5B | -$131.0M | $723.0M | $2.4B | $6.7B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 22, 2026 3:04am (5d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $3.5B | $3.6B | $1.7B | $3.0B | $7.7B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$301.0M | -$450.0M | -$546.0M | -$636.0M | -$974.0M |
| Free Cash Flow | $3.2B | $3.1B | $1.1B | $2.4B | $6.7B |
| Acquisitions (net) | $0 | $822.0M | -$131.0M | -$565.0M | -$1.8B |
| Debt Repayment | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | -$2.0B | -$4.1B | -$1.4B | -$1.6B | -$1.3B |
| Net Change in Cash | $940.0M | $2.3B | -$902.0M | -$122.0M | $1.9B |
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 23, 2026 3:00am (4d ago)| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue |
$76.6B $62.5B – $84.3B
|
$101.5B $101.0B – $102.1B
|
$144.3B $122.5B – $167.6B
|
$171.4B $145.5B – $199.1B
|
| EBITDA |
$16.6B $13.6B – $18.3B
|
$22.0B $21.9B – $22.2B
|
$31.3B $26.6B – $36.4B
|
$37.2B $31.6B – $43.2B
|
| Net Income |
$17.3B $14.6B – $27.3B
|
$26.1B $20.6B – $50.7B
|
$41.0B $33.0B – $49.6B
|
$48.9B $39.3B – $59.2B
|
| EPS | — | — | — | — |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 23, 2026 3:04am (4d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +43.6% | -3.9% | +13.7% | +34.3% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +33.7% | -1.3% | +21.7% | +34.8% |
| Operating Income Growth | -65.4% | -68.3% | +373.8% | +94.4% |
| Net Income Growth | -58.3% | -35.3% | +92.2% | +164.2% |
| EBITDA Growth | +32.8% | -25.0% | +26.7% | +38.4% |
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 23, 2026 3:04am (4d ago)All SEC Form 4 codes
- P Purchase
- Open-market or private purchase of shares.
- S Sale
- Open-market or private sale of shares.
- A Award / grant
- Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
- D Return to issuer
- Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
- F In-kind (tax)
- Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
- I Discretionary
- Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
- M Option exercise
- Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
- C Conversion
- Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
- E Short expiration
- Expiration of a short derivative position.
- H Long expiration
- Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
- O OTM exercise
- Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
- X ITM exercise
- Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
- G Gift
- Bona fide gift of securities.
- L Small acquisition
- Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
- W Inheritance
- Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
- Z Voting trust
- Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
- J Other
- Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
- K Equity swap
- Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
- U Tender / buyout
- Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.
Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | GUIDO PHILIP | M-Exempt | 7,495.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-06-15 | GUIDO PHILIP | F-InKind | 2,950.00 | $547.26 | $1.6M |
| 2026-06-15 | GUIDO PHILIP | M-Exempt | 7,495.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Papermaster Mark D | M-Exempt | 6,000.00 | $84.85 | $509,100 |
| 2026-06-15 | Papermaster Mark D | S-Sale | 6,000.00 | $536.33 | $3.2M |
| 2026-06-15 | Papermaster Mark D | M-Exempt | 6,000.00 | $84.85 | $509,100 |
| 2026-06-10 | Su Lisa T | 0.00 | $0.00 | $0 | |
| 2026-06-10 | Su Lisa T | S-Sale | 2,720.00 | $449.21 | $1.2M |
| 2026-06-10 | Su Lisa T | S-Sale | 700.00 | $450.40 | $315,280 |
| 2026-06-10 | Su Lisa T | S-Sale | 4,400.00 | $451.53 | $2.0M |
| 2026-06-10 | Su Lisa T | S-Sale | 12,862.00 | $452.40 | $5.8M |
| 2026-06-10 | Su Lisa T | S-Sale | 14,458.00 | $453.45 | $6.6M |
| 2026-06-10 | Su Lisa T | S-Sale | 9,392.00 | $454.43 | $4.3M |
| 2026-06-10 | Su Lisa T | S-Sale | 7,390.00 | $455.40 | $3.4M |
| 2026-06-10 | Su Lisa T | S-Sale | 6,638.00 | $456.38 | $3.0M |
| 2026-06-10 | Su Lisa T | S-Sale | 7,351.00 | $457.42 | $3.4M |
| 2026-06-10 | Su Lisa T | S-Sale | 5,700.00 | $458.45 | $2.6M |
| 2026-06-10 | Su Lisa T | S-Sale | 2,891.00 | $459.41 | $1.3M |
| 2026-06-10 | Su Lisa T | S-Sale | 1,700.00 | $460.45 | $782,765 |
| 2026-06-10 | Su Lisa T | S-Sale | 900.00 | $461.67 | $415,503 |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 21, 2026 6:48pm (5d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1995-04-28 | $0.01 | 1995-04-18 | 1995-05-03 | 1995-05-24 |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
The raw quarterly trajectory is the most important fact here, and it's better than the "decelerating" tag suggests. Revenue went $5.84B → $6.82B → $7.66B → $7.44B → $7.69B → $9.25B → $10.27B → $10.25B across eight quarters — that's a doubling from mid-2024 to early 2026, with net margin expanding from 4.5% to ~14% over the same window. Annual 2025 revenue of $34.6B (+34% YoY) with $6.74B FCF and $4.34B NI is a genuine inflection, not a story. The flat sequential print at $10.25B in Q1 2026 is the first real pause, and net margin ticked down from 14.7% to 13.5% — worth flagging, but one quarter doesn't kill the trajectory. The "decelerating" label looks lazy: YoY is still +34%, and absolute dollars are at all-time highs.
That said, the valuation math is brutal. $899B market cap on $34.6B revenue is 26x sales and ~133x trailing earnings (the 179 TTM P/E is distorted but directionally honest). EV/FCF on $6.74B is ~133x. To grow into a "reasonable" 30x FCF over five years, FCF needs to roughly 4.4x to ~$30B — which requires both revenue near $90-100B and FCF margins climbing toward 30%. NVIDIA-class economics, in other words, on a company whose 2025 operating margin was 10.7% and whose 2023 operating margin was 1.8%. The synthesis call of "High Conviction Required" is the right hedge but understates how narrow the needle is: AMD has to sustain ~25%+ revenue CAGR AND expand op margins by ~1500bps simultaneously. Possible — NVIDIA did it — but the base rate for semis pulling that off is low, and AMD is doing it against a competitor with 75% gross margins and CUDA lock-in.
The contrarian case the models underweight: ROIC of 6.2% and ROE of 8% are mediocre for a company priced as a platform monopoly. Gross margin at 49.5% is structurally below where the narrative needs it (55-60%+) and far below NVIDIA. The pre-flight thesis correctly identifies that MI300/MI400 datacenter share is the entire bull case, but doesn't quantify that AMD's datacenter GPU revenue is still a fraction of NVIDIA's — and hyperscaler concentration risk is real (a single Meta or Microsoft order shift moves quarters). The narrative layer rightly flags "moderate durability" — this isn't TSLA-style cult pricing, but it's a $900B bet on continued share capture in a market where the incumbent has 90%+ share and a deeper software moat. Insider activity skews to sales (M-Exempt + S-Sale pattern); not damning, but not the buying you'd expect if insiders thought $551 was cheap. Cash position of $5.5B is fine but not a fortress, and the balance sheet has missing debt/equity fields which is annoying for a real leverage read.
I dissent mildly with the synthesis "High Conviction Required" framing — that's analyst-speak for "we don't know." The numbers are clearer than that: this is a great company at a demanding price. Reverse-DCF requires ~25% FCF CAGR for a decade to justify $551, which is a 2-sigma outcome even in a bullish AI scenario. Fair value on a more reasonable 18-20% FCF CAGR and terminal 25x multiple lands closer to $380-420. The Q1 2026 sequential flatness ($10.27B → $10.25B) and the modest margin compression are the first cracks worth watching — if Q2 confirms a plateau, multiple compression will be violent given the 133x earnings starting point. Conversely, if MI400 ramps cleanly and datacenter mix pushes gross margin above 52%, the bull case re-accelerates. I wouldn't short — the trajectory and Lisa Su execution premium are real — but I wouldn't be a new buyer here. Existing holders should trim into strength; new money waits for either a $400-handle re-rating or two more quarters of margin proof.
GPT Critique
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) presents a compelling growth narrative, evidenced by its recent revenue surge from $5.84 billion in mid-2024 to over $10 billion by early 2026, which represents a near doubling in a relatively short span. This growth is accompanied by a significant improvement in net margins, elevating from 4.5% to approximately 14%. AMD's annual 2025 performance, with $34.64 billion in revenue and $4.34 billion in net income, marks a strong upward trajectory, particularly given the free cash flow (FCF) of $6.74 billion. The company's current valuation, however, suggests an aggressive market expectation, with a market capitalization of $899.49 billion and a P/E ratio well above traditional benchmarks, indicating that investors are pricing in substantial future growth and margin expansion that may be challenging to sustain.
Opus argues that AMD is overvalued, pegging fair value between $380 and $420 versus the current $551, contingent on achieving a gross margin above 52% or a significant price decline. I concur with the notion that the current market price demands near-perfect execution from AMD, as the valuation metrics such as the 179.6 P/E ratio and 133x EV/FCF are exceptionally high and suggest that any deviation from expected growth could lead to severe re-evaluation. However, I diverge slightly in my interpretation of the narrative dynamics. The flat revenue in the most recent quarter ($10.27 billion to $10.25 billion) and slight margin compression indeed merit attention, yet these could also be seen as temporary fluctuations rather than definitive indicators of a plateau, given the robust year-over-year growth of 34%.
While Opus emphasizes the difficulty AMD faces in expanding its datacenter GPU market share against NVIDIA's stronghold, I see potential in AMD's strategic positioning to capitalize on AI and cloud growth, which could support continued revenue and margin expansion. The company's operating cash flow of $7.71 billion and a healthy FCF suggest an underlying cash-generating capability that can sustain investment in growth areas, which might bolster its competitive stance in the long run.
Critics might argue that both Opus and I overlook the inherent volatility of the semiconductor industry and the macroeconomic headwinds that could impact AMD's growth trajectory. Additionally, the reliance on a narrative of perpetual AI-driven growth could lead to overestimation of AMD's ability to maintain its current momentum without facing technological and competitive setbacks. A skeptic would highlight the uncertain macro environment and the potential for technological disruptions, which could challenge AMD's market position.