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FRESH Analysis Report
Jun 26, 2026
1 day ago · 100% complete · +9 refreshed

RTX Corporation

RTX NYSE Categories PDF
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Arlington, VA 22209, United States IPO 1952 rtx.com Updated Jun 25, 1:47pm
Price
$186.00
Market Cap
$250.5B
Employees
185,000
Beta
0.31
Avg Volume
5,431,156
CEO
Christopher T. Calio
Business Description

RTX Corporation, a major player in the aerospace and defense sectors, provides sophisticated systems and extensive services to a diverse global clientele. This includes commercial entities, military organizations, and government agencies, both within the United States and internationally. The company's operations are divided into three primary business units: Collins Aerospace, Pratt & Whitney, and Raytheon. The Collins Aerospace segment delivers a broad range of aerospace and defense products, alongside comprehensive aftermarket support solutions. Its customer base spans manufacturers of civil and military aircraft, commercial airlines, and operators in regional, business, general aviation, defense, and commercial space ventures. This division's offerings cover the design, production, and maintenance of aircraft interior components, such as oxygen systems, food and beverage preparation and storage facilities, galley systems, and lavatory and wastewater management. It also supplies battlespace management tools, test and training range infrastructure, crew escape mechanisms, simulation and training programs, and essential information management services. Its post-sales services include providing spare parts, overhaul and repair, specialized engineering and technical assistance, training and fleet management, and integrated asset and information management. Pratt & Whitney, another core segment, is a leading provider of aircraft propulsion systems for commercial airliners, military aircraft, business jets, and general aviation. This division is also responsible for manufacturing, selling, and maintaining auxiliary power units for both military and commercial applications. Finally, the Raytheon segment specializes in creating advanced capabilities for the detection, tracking, and mitigation of both defensive and offensive threats. Its tailored solutions serve the U.S. government, foreign governments, and various commercial customers. Established in 1934, the company was formerly known as Raytheon Technologies Corporation before officially rebranding as RTX Corporation in July 2023. RTX Corporation maintains its corporate headquarters in Arlington, Virginia.

Business History
Generated: Jun 26, 2026 3:03am
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 3:00am (1d ago)
$186.59
+1.53 (+0.83%)
Day Range
$184.35 – $189.62
52-Week Range
$141.93 – $214.50
50-Day MA
$180.12
200-Day MA
$183.00
Volume
3,582,075.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $204.00
Consensus $224.33
High $240.00
(62 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 1,346,680,000.00
Float 1,251,634,512.00
Free Float 92.9%
High free float — 92.9% of shares trade freely, ~7.1% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 3:07am (1d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 3:04am (1d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 26, 2026 3:02am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
34.66
Stock Price: $186.00
EPS (Diluted): 5.02
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
3.77
Stock Price: $186.00
Total Equity: $65.25B
Shares: 1,356,400,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
18.37
Market Cap: $250.48B
Total Debt: $37.90B
Cash: $7.44B
EBITDA: $14.95B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$278.1B
Market Cap: $250.48B
Total Debt: $37.90B
Cash: $7.44B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
20.1%
Gross Profit: $17.79B
Revenue: $88.60B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
10.5%
Operating Income: $9.30B
Revenue: $88.60B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
7.6%
Net Income: $6.73B
Revenue: $88.60B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
11.2%
Net Income: $6.73B
Total Equity: $65.25B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
6.9%
Operating Income: $9.30B
Tax Rate: 19.1%
Equity: $65.25B
Total Debt: $37.90B
Cash: $7.44B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.03
Current Assets: $60.33B
Current Liabilities: $58.78B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.58
Short-Term Debt: $3.62B
Long-Term Debt: $34.29B
Total Debt: $37.90B
Total Equity: $65.25B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$65.32
Revenue: $88.60B
Shares: 1,356,400,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$48.10
Total Equity: $65.25B
Shares: 1,356,400,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$5.85
Operating CF: $10.57B
CapEx: -$2.63B
Shares: 1,356,400,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
1.5%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $186.00
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $6.73B
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 26, 2026 3:02am
Compares RTX against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · three lenses
Three separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-06-26 03:22:22
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality - wait for a dip 7/10
Great business at a full price with a defense-narrative tailwind - I want RTX, but not at $186; my bid is high $150s.
The cruxWhether you get a pullback to reset the FCF multiple before the next leg, because the business quality (+65) is not in question - only the entry is.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from RTX's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionShare Count Shrinking
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The three lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+65
Strong
edge √Σ 133 · risk √Σ 68 · conf 8/10

RTX is executing as a mature earner with real operating leverage: revenue grew from $64.4B (2021) to $88.6B (2025), a ~38% cumulative gain, while operating margin expanded from 8.0% to 10.5% and net income rose from $3.86B to $6.73B. 2023 was a clear trough (GM 17.5%, OpM 5.2%, hit by the Pratt powder-metal recall) and the recovery to 20.1% GM and $7.94B FCF in 2025 shows the franchise absorbed a major program issue without permanent damage. Earnings quality looks clean: OCF/NI of 1.75x, accruals at -2% of assets, Beneish M of -2.41, and FCF ($7.94B) actually exceeding net income ($6.73B) in 2025. Diluted shares fell from 1.51B to 1.36B (-2.6% CAGR) with buybacks running 6.6x SBC, so per-share value is being concentrated rather than diluted - rare and admirable discipline at this scale. The clear constraint is the balance sheet: net debt of ~$30B against only $7.4B liquid cash. FCF easily services it, but it removes optionality and means leverage - not cash - is funding the buyback. Altman Z of 2.62 (grey zone) reflects this. Insider tape is neutral-to-slightly-negative (15 sells, 0 buys), but magnitudes are small and consistent with routine comp monetization, not a signal.

Strengths 4
m75
Margin recovery and operating leverage
Operating margin expanded from a 2023 trough of 5.2% to 10.5% in 2025 on revenue up 29% over the same span; net income doubled from $3.20B to $6.73B.
m70
High-integrity earnings
OCF/NI 1.75x, accruals -2% of assets, Beneish M -2.41, and 2025 FCF of $7.94B exceeds net income of $6.73B - cash conversion is genuine.
m65
Per-share value concentration
Diluted shares fell from 1.51B to 1.36B (-2.6% CAGR) with buyback/SBC ratio of 657% - a real net buyer, not a SBC-masking optical program.
m55
Durable franchise demonstrated by recall recovery
The 2023 Pratt powder-metal disruption cut GM by ~300bps and halved net income, yet by 2025 margins exceeded pre-event levels - speaks to the entrenched installed base and long-cycle backlog economics.
Concerns 3
m60
Heavy net debt limits flexibility
Net debt of ~$30.5B vs $7.4B liquid cash; Altman Z 2.62 (grey). FCF covers it, but the buyback is effectively being financed alongside leverage rather than from a cash cushion.
m25
Insider sales without offsetting buys
15 sells totaling ~$34.9M and 0 open-market buys in the last 12 months; magnitudes look like routine comp monetization but the asymmetry is worth noting.
m20
Program/quality tail risk is real
The GTF powder-metal issue showed a single program defect can wipe out a year of earnings - inherent to aerospace OEM economics.
This is a genuinely well-run mature industrial. The 2023 dip wasn't accounting noise - it was a real program hit, and they came out the other side with margins higher than before, FCF stepping up to ~$8B, and share count actually shrinking. Earnings-quality screens are clean and the buyback discipline (6.6x SBC) is the right behavior at this lifecycle stage. The honest blemish is the ~$30B net debt - it isn't a fortress balance sheet, and a second program shock would bite harder than the first. I'd call this Strong, not Fortress: a high-quality franchise with a leveraged capital structure.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Composition and maturity ladder of the ~$30B net debt - fixed vs floating, near-term maturities
  • Remaining accrual and cash outflow timeline for the Pratt GTF powder-metal fleet management plan
  • Defense backlog mix and customer concentration (DoD share) in the 10-K segment detail
  • Whether 2025 FCF benefited from a working-capital tailwind or sustainable underlying conversion
  • Pension/OPEB status and any contribution requirements that could pressure FCF
Valuation / Mispricing
-48
Fairly Valued
edge √Σ 39 · risk √Σ 87 · conf 6/10
Price $186.59 vs deserved ~$180 midpoint - roughly 3-4% premium, essentially fair with no margin of safety. attractive below $158.00

RTX trades at $186.59 for a $250B market cap on roughly $8B of FCF (~31x FCF) and a forward P/E in the low-20s - a premium to its own history and a premium to defense-prime peers like LMT and NOC. The bull case (record $250B backlog, GTF recovery behind them, defense supercycle) is well known and largely embedded; the e2e synthesis flagging 'High Conviction Required' is code for 'fair value does not obviously exceed price.' On a quality-adjusted DCF anchored to ~$8B FCF growing mid-single-digits with ~$30B net debt, deserved equity value lands roughly $170-195/share. That straddles the current price. To justify $186 you need FCF to step toward $9-10B by 2026 AND no further Pratt incidents - plausible, not heroic, but not discounted either. The $30B net debt is the real haircut: it caps multiple expansion and means the EV is closer to $280B, pushing EV/EBITDA to ~16x - full for a mature industrial. Earnings quality is clean (no haircut needed), so the deserved number is honest, not flattered. Net: a great business at a fair price, not a mispricing.

Cheap signals 2
m30
FCF inflection toward $9-10B
If GTF aftermarket normalizes and defense margins hold, FCF could step up ~20% by 2026, which would pull the FCF multiple to a more reasonable mid-20s.
m25
Clean earnings quality, no haircut
Quality lens flagged earnings as high quality, so deserved value is not inflated by accruals - the ~$180 midpoint is honest.
Rich / priced-in 3
m55
~31x FCF on a mature industrial
$250B cap on ~$8B FCF is a premium multiple for low-double-digit earnings growth; peers NOC/LMT trade closer to 20-25x FCF.
m50
Backlog and defense cycle already priced in
The $250B backlog and geopolitical tailwind are consensus; stock is up materially YTD reflecting this - no hidden optionality at $186.
m45
$30B net debt inflates EV
EV near $280B pushes EV/EBITDA to ~16x, limiting re-rating room and making the equity more sensitive to rate/FCF wobbles.
I see a well-run business at a full price. At $186 I'm paying ~31x FCF for mid-single-digit growth plus a debt-laden balance sheet - that is not a mispricing I want to underwrite. I'd get interested in the high $150s where the FCF multiple compresses to ~25x and there's actual margin of safety against another Pratt-style surprise. Today it's a hold, not a buy.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • 2025 FCF guidance and Pratt GTF remediation cash outflow tail
  • Defense segment book-to-bill and margin trajectory in next two quarters
  • Net debt paydown pace and any large M&A signal that would extend leverage
  • Commercial aftermarket organic growth - the real margin lever
General Sentiment
+69
Tailwind
tail √Σ 112 · head √Σ 43 · conf 7/10

The macro tape is mildly risk-off (S&P off 3.3%, VIX 18.9) but RTX's 0.31 beta means the broad drawdown barely lands on this name. What matters more is the active narrative: a durable steady-compounder story anchored to a $250B backlog and rising defense budgets, freshly reinforced this week by a White House meeting pressing primes to accelerate weapons production and an $87.6B supplemental request. That is a direct, stock-specific tailwind for RTX. Analyst tone is constructive and aligned with the story (18 Buys, 8 Holds, no Sells; target $224 vs price $187, ~20% implied upside) with a fresh upward revision this month - no meaningful divergence from the live narrative. News flow is benign-to-positive: 'near fair value' framing, peer comparisons that flatter RTX's setup vs GD, and sector rotation chatter back toward defense. No fresh Pratt & Whitney flare-up in the 72h window, which removes the main idiosyncratic headwind that has periodically capped the name. Net pressure is positive but moderate - this is a low-cult, low-intensity narrative, so it pushes steadily rather than violently.

Tailwinds 4
m70
White House pushes defense production
Trump meeting with primes and an $87.6B supplemental request directly reinforces the defense-spending narrative RTX trades on. Stock-specific because RTX is a top-tier prime named in the rotation chatter.
m55
Durable narrative, low cult risk
Steady-compounder archetype with moderate intensity and durable shelf life - not a story that snaps. Provides a slow, persistent bid even in choppy tape.
m50
Analyst tone aligned and constructive
18 Buys / 0 Sells, target ~20% above spot, fresh upward revision this month. No divergence from the narrative - tone is reinforcing, not fighting it.
m45
Low beta mutes risk-off tape
Beta 0.31 means the -3.3% S&P pullback and VIX at 18.9 land softly here. The macro headwind that hits high-beta story stocks barely registers on RTX.
Headwinds 2
m35
Latent Pratt & Whitney overhang
The bear story (structural engine quality issues) is dormant in this news window but one headline away from reactivating. Caps how euphoric sentiment can get.
m25
Fair-value framing in financial press
Multiple pieces this week frame RTX as 'near fair value' after a strong five-year run - mild ceiling on multiple expansion even if it does not push the stock down.
Net pressure leans positive. The defense-spending narrative just got a fresh White House catalyst, analyst tone is aligned not diverging, and RTX's 0.31 beta inoculates it from the mildly risk-off tape. This is not a euphoric setup - intensity is moderate, cult is low, and a 'fair value' framing caps the upside narrative - but I see steady tailwind here, with the only real downside trigger being a Pratt & Whitney flare-up that is not in the current news flow. Call it Tailwind, conviction 7.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Any fresh Pratt & Whitney engine or 787-related headline that would reignite the structural bear case
  • Passage and size of the $87.6B defense supplemental - confirmation would extend the tailwind
  • Sector rotation flows: defense ETF (ITA/XAR) leadership vs broad industrials
  • Whether analyst target revisions broaden beyond the single upgrade this month
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
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Three lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), and General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 26, 2026 3:06:25 am

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 3:04am (1d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $64.4B $67.1B $68.9B $80.7B $88.6B
Cost of Revenue $51.9B $53.4B $56.8B $65.3B $70.8B
Gross Profit $12.5B $13.7B $12.1B $15.4B $17.8B
Operating Expenses $7.4B $8.2B $8.5B $8.9B $8.5B
Operating Income $5.1B $5.5B $3.6B $6.5B $9.3B
Net Income $3.9B $5.2B $3.2B $4.8B $6.7B
EBITDA $11.0B $11.5B $9.7B $12.5B $14.9B
EPS $2.57 $3.52 $2.24 $3.58 $5.02
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 3:00am (1d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $7.8B $6.2B $6.6B $5.6B $7.4B
Total Current Assets $42.1B $42.4B $48.4B $51.1B $60.3B
Total Assets $161.4B $158.9B $161.9B $162.9B $171.1B
Current Liabilities $35.4B $39.1B $46.8B $51.5B $58.8B
Long-Term Debt $31.3B $30.7B $42.4B $38.7B $34.3B
Total Liabilities $86.7B $84.7B $100.4B $100.9B $103.9B
Total Equity $73.1B $72.6B $59.8B $60.2B $65.2B
Retained Earnings $50.3B $52.3B $52.2B $53.6B $56.7B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 24, 2026 3:04am (3d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $7.1B $7.2B $7.9B $7.2B $10.6B
Capital Expenditure -$2.3B -$2.8B -$3.2B -$2.6B -$2.6B
Free Cash Flow $4.7B $4.4B $4.7B $4.5B $7.9B
Acquisitions (net) $791.0M $28.0M $6.0M $0 $0
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks -$2.3B -$2.8B -$12.9B -$444.0M -$50.0M
Net Change in Cash -$979.0M -$1.6B $335.0M -$1.0B $1.9B
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 3:00am (1d ago)
Metric 2027 2028 2029 2030
Revenue $100.8B
$100.1B – $101.2B
$107.6B
$107.5B – $107.8B
$112.6B
$111.2B – $114.3B
$117.9B
$116.4B – $119.7B
EBITDA $16.3B
$16.2B – $16.3B
$17.4B
$17.4B – $17.4B
$18.2B
$17.9B – $18.5B
$19.0B
$18.8B – $19.3B
Net Income $10.1B
$9.7B – $10.5B
$11.6B
$11.0B – $12.3B
$12.4B
$12.2B – $12.7B
$13.4B
$13.1B – $13.6B
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 3:04am (1d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +4.2% +2.8% +17.1% +9.7%
Gross Profit Growth +9.4% -11.6% +27.5% +15.4%
Operating Income Growth +7.2% -35.3% +83.6% +42.2%
Net Income Growth +34.5% -38.5% +49.4% +41.0%
EBITDA Growth +4.8% -15.8% +29.2% +19.3%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 3:04am (1d ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-04-30 Work Robert O A-Award 1,175.67 $0.00 $0
2026-04-30 ROGERS BRIAN C A-Award 2,101.44 $0.00 $0
2026-04-30 Reynolds Fredric A-Award 1,346.06 $0.00 $0
2026-04-30 Ramos Denise L A-Award 1,959.45 $0.00 $0
2026-04-30 Pawlikowski Ellen M A-Award 1,260.86 $0.00 $0
2026-04-30 Oliver George A-Award 1,260.86 $0.00 $0
2026-04-30 Harris Bernard A Jr A-Award 1,175.67 $0.00 $0
2026-04-30 Caret Leanne G A-Award 1,311.98 $0.00 $0
2026-04-30 Atkinson Tracy A A-Award 1,294.94 $0.00 $0
2026-02-23 Williams Dantaya M S-Sale 12,713.00 $202.83 $2.6M
2026-02-19 Mitchill Neil G. JR M-Exempt 9,394.00 $76.00 $713,944
2026-02-19 Mitchill Neil G. JR D-Return 3,473.00 $205.53 $713,806
2026-02-19 Mitchill Neil G. JR D-Return 3,697.00 $205.56 $759,955
2026-02-19 Mitchill Neil G. JR M-Exempt 10,000.00 $76.00 $760,000
2026-02-19 Mitchill Neil G. JR S-Sale 5,921.00 $205.54 $1.2M
2026-02-19 Mitchill Neil G. JR S-Sale 6,303.00 $205.54 $1.3M
2026-02-19 Mitchill Neil G. JR S-Sale 23,531.00 $205.58 $4.8M
2026-02-19 Mitchill Neil G. JR M-Exempt 9,394.00 $76.00 $713,944
2026-02-19 Mitchill Neil G. JR M-Exempt 10,000.00 $76.00 $760,000
2026-02-19 Maharajh Ramsaran S-Sale 15,124.00 $204.65 $3.1M
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:27pm (3d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-05-22 $0.73 2026-04-30 2026-05-22 2026-06-11
2026-02-20 $0.68 2026-02-06 2026-02-20 2026-03-19
2025-11-21 $0.68 2025-10-30 2025-11-21 2025-12-11
2025-08-15 $0.68 2025-06-27 2025-08-15 2025-09-04
2025-05-23 $0.68 2025-05-01 2025-05-23 2025-06-12
2025-02-21 $0.63 2025-01-31 2025-02-21 2025-03-20
2024-11-15 $0.63 2024-10-09 2024-11-15 2024-12-12
2024-08-16 $0.63 2024-06-03 2024-08-16 2024-09-05
2024-05-16 $0.63 2024-05-02 2024-05-17 2024-06-13
2024-02-22 $0.59 2024-02-02 2024-02-23 2024-03-21
2023-11-16 $0.59 2023-10-11 2023-11-17 2023-12-14
2023-08-17 $0.59 2023-06-05 2023-08-18 2023-09-07
2023-05-18 $0.59 2023-04-24 2023-05-19 2023-06-15
2023-02-23 $0.55 2023-02-03 2023-02-24 2023-03-23
2022-11-17 $0.55 2022-10-12 2022-11-18 2022-12-15
2022-08-18 $0.55 2022-06-06 2022-08-19 2022-09-08
2022-05-19 $0.55 2022-04-25 2022-05-20 2022-06-16
2022-02-24 $0.51 2022-02-11 2022-02-25 2022-03-24
2021-11-18 $0.51 2021-10-13 2021-11-19 2021-12-16
2021-08-19 $0.51 2021-06-21 2021-08-20 2021-09-09
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for RTX — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-26 03:07:05
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts

Looking at the raw quarterly tape first: Q1 2026 revenue of $22.08B is down sequentially from Q4 2025's $24.24B, but Q4 is seasonally strong in aerospace and Q1 net income of $2.06B is actually the highest quarterly NI in the eight-quarter window — margins recovered to 9.3% from 6.7%. The YoY comparison that matters: Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025 is $22.08B vs $20.31B, +8.7% revenue and +34% earnings. Annual 2025 revenue of $88.6B against 2024's $80.7B is +9.7%, with operating income jumping from $6.54B to $9.30B — that's 42% operating income growth on 10% revenue growth, real operating leverage. FCF of $7.94B against a $250B market cap is a 3.2% FCF yield, not cheap but not absurd for a business compounding earnings at this rate. The earnings CAGR of 45% is flattered by the Q2 2024 $111M trough (Pratt powder metal charge) — strip that and you're looking at a more normal ~15% underlying earnings growth, still healthy.

Where I push back on the synthesis verdict of "High Conviction Required at 37x P/E": the 34.7x TTM P/E is misleading because TTM still drags Q2 2024's near-zero quarter. Annualizing the last four quarters of NI ($2.06+1.62+1.92+1.66 = $7.26B) against the $250B cap gives ~34x — but if you take Q1 2026 run-rate ($2.06B × 4 = $8.24B), it's 30x, and forward consensus would likely put it closer to 25-27x on 2026E earnings if margin expansion continues. The synthesis is anchoring on stale TTM optics. ROIC of 6.9% is genuinely mediocre for an industrial trading at 3.8x book, and that's the real bear point the models underweight — RTX earns its cost of capital, barely, and is being priced as if it earns 15%+.

The contrarian case the models miss: the entire bull thesis rests on defense budgets staying at elevated levels and commercial aerospace aftermarket compounding. Both are consensus. Trump-era defense priorities are noisy — there's been real talk of Pentagon budget restraint paired with weapons-system reprioritization that could hurt legacy primes. Pratt's GTF powder-metal remediation is not done; the $3B+ in charges already taken assumes a finite tail, but A320neo fleet inspections run through 2026-2027 and any second-order finding (military F135?) would reset the cash drag. The narrative model's "durable" tag is doing a lot of work here — duopoly-adjacent positioning is real, but Collins faces Honeywell/GE competition and Raytheon's missile margins have historically been mid-single-digit, not the 12%+ implied by current trajectory. The insider activity is genuinely uninformative — nine awards and one small sale of 12,713 shares is noise, not signal; the models correctly flagged neutral but the synthesis should weight this at zero, not as confirming.

Where the data is thin: balance sheet is incomplete — total debt and equity blank in the tile is a real gap for a company that carried ~$42B net debt post-Raytheon merger. Without current debt figures I can't verify EV/EBITDA of 18.4x, which is the more honest multiple than P/E for a levered industrial. Current ratio of 1.03 is tight; this isn't a fortress balance sheet, and a working-capital squeeze from supply chain or another GTF charge would matter. The 1.45% dividend yield is unremarkable.

My verdict: I dissent mildly from "High Conviction Required" — that framing implies the stock is fairly priced only if you believe the supercycle. I think the trajectory is doing more work than the models credit. Q1 2026's 9.3% net margin against a 5-year average closer to 6% suggests the operating leverage is real and accelerating, not a one-quarter blip. If 2026 delivers $9-9.5B NI (achievable at current run-rate), the forward P/E drops to 26-27x — premium to industrials but defensible against the growth rate. That said, at $186 with 6.9% ROIC and a tight balance sheet, this isn't a fat pitch. Fair value on my math is $175-195 range; current price is mid-range. Not a buy, not a sell. The asymmetry isn't compelling either direction until you get either a GTF

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-26 03:07:11
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I partially agree with Opus—RTX is not a clear buy at $186 due to operational and geopolitical risks, but I see fair value closer to $175-195, aligning with their range but suggesting a slightly less favorable risk-reward profile than Opus implied.

In analyzing RTX Corporation's financials, several key points stand out. The company has shown impressive revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.4% over the past few years. The most recent quarter's revenue of $22.08 billion represents an 8.7% year-over-year increase, and net income has grown even more significantly by 34% over the same period. This suggests strong operational leverage, as evidenced by the operating income growth of 42% in 2025. The free cash flow (FCF) yield stands at 3.2%, which, while not overly generous, is reasonable for a company with such growth metrics. However, the balance sheet data is lacking in terms of total debt and equity figures, which limits a comprehensive understanding of the company's financial health, especially given RTX's history of carrying significant net debt.

I agree with Claude Opus in recognizing the misleading nature of the 34.7x trailing twelve months (TTM) price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, as it includes a quarter affected by one-time charges. Opus's adjustment to a forward P/E closer to 25-27x based on run-rate earnings is a more accurate representation. However, I diverge from Opus on the skepticism regarding the "High Conviction Required" synthesis verdict. The company's recent margin improvement, with Q1 2026 hitting a 9.3% net margin, suggests that RTX is successfully navigating its challenges, such as those related to Pratt & Whitney's GTF engines.

Where I align with Opus is on the concern about RTX's return metrics, specifically the return on invested capital (ROIC) of 6.9%, which barely covers the cost of capital and is concerning for a company trading at such a premium. This reflects a fundamental issue that should not be overlooked when considering its valuation. Additionally, I agree with the concerns surrounding the geopolitical risks and the sustainability of defense spending, which are critical to RTX's narrative but could be volatile and subject to change.

A careful skeptic might argue that both our views and Opus's could be underestimating the potential for further operational hiccups, especially given the ongoing issues with Pratt & Whitney engines and the potential for shifts in defense spending priorities. The incomplete balance sheet data adds an element of uncertainty, as it prevents a full assessment of financial leverage and risk.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.352 · d1100787 · 2026-06-26 11:39:30