For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page
What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for RTX Corporation (RTX) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score -13 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 61 · Value -74 · Sentiment 67 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $114.64 vs $215.22 at analysis
Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable
reference-name attribute you can cite):
profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
More for machine readers: site briefing at
/llms.txt ·
any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER ·
raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds);
every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.
RTX Corporation
RTX NYSERTX Corporation is a global aerospace and defense company that develops and supplies advanced technologies, systems, and services for commercial, military, and government customers. Headquartered in Arlington, Virginia, it operates through three core segments: Collins Aerospace, Pratt & Whitney, and Raytheon. Collins Aerospace provides avionics, aerostructures, cabin systems, landing gear, and aftermarket services to aircraft manufacturers, airlines, and defense operators. Pratt & Whitney designs, manufactures, and services aircraft engines for commercial airliners, regional and business jets, and military aircraft. Raytheon delivers defense and security solutions, including missile systems, air and missile defense, radars, sensors, command-and-control systems, and cybersecurity capabilities. RTX Corporation plays a significant role in both global commercial aviation supply chains and defense procurement, supporting mission-critical operations, fleet maintenance, and advanced defense architectures for allied nations and institutional clients worldwide.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 4.96
Total Equity: $67.14B
Shares: 1,356,400,000
Total Debt: $204.00M
Cash: $7.44B
EBITDA: $13.68B
Total Debt: $204.00M
Cash: $7.44B
Revenue: $88.60B
Revenue: $88.60B
Revenue: $88.60B
Total Equity: $67.14B
Tax Rate: 19.1%
Equity: $67.14B
Total Debt: $204.00M
Cash: $7.44B
Current Liabilities: $58.78B
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $204.00M
Total Equity: $67.14B
Shares: 1,356,400,000
Shares: 1,356,400,000
CapEx: -$2.63B
Shares: 1,356,400,000
Stock Price: $215.22
Net Income: $6.73B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 7:17am (23d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $64.4B | $67.1B | $68.9B | $80.7B | $88.6B |
| Cost of Revenue | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gross Profit | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Expenses | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Income | $5.0B | $5.4B | $3.6B | $6.5B | $9.3B |
| Net Income | $3.9B | $5.2B | $3.2B | $4.8B | $6.7B |
| EBITDA | $9.5B | $9.5B | $7.8B | $10.9B | $13.7B |
| EPS | $2.57 | $3.52 | $2.24 | $3.58 | $5.02 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $2.56 | $3.50 | $2.23 | $3.55 | $4.96 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 9:11am (23d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $7.8B | $6.2B | $6.6B | $5.6B | $7.4B |
| Total Current Assets | $42.1B | $42.4B | $48.4B | $51.1B | $60.3B |
| Total Assets | $161.4B | $158.9B | $161.9B | $162.9B | $171.1B |
| Current Liabilities | $35.4B | $39.1B | $46.8B | $51.5B | $58.8B |
| Long-Term Debt | $31.4B | $31.3B | $43.6B | $41.1B | — |
| Total Liabilities | $86.7B | $84.7B | $100.4B | $100.9B | $103.9B |
| Total Equity | $74.7B | $74.2B | $61.4B | $62.0B | $67.1B |
| Retained Earnings | $50.3B | $52.3B | $52.2B | $53.6B | $56.7B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 7:17am (23d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | — | $7.2B | $7.9B | $7.2B | $10.6B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$2.1B | -$2.3B | -$2.4B | -$2.6B | -$2.6B |
| Free Cash Flow | — | $4.9B | $5.5B | $4.5B | $7.9B |
| Acquisitions (net) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | -$192.0M | -$2.0M | $12.3B | -$2.5B | -$3.4B |
| Dividends Paid | -$3.0B | -$3.1B | -$3.2B | -$3.2B | -$3.6B |
| Stock Buybacks | -$2.3B | -$2.8B | -$12.9B | -$444.0M | -$50.0M |
| Net Change in Cash | -$979.0M | -$1.6B | $335.0M | -$1.0B | $1.9B |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 7:17am (23d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +4.2% | +2.8% | +17.1% | +9.7% |
| Gross Profit Growth | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Income Growth | +9.2% | -34.2% | +83.6% | +42.2% |
| Net Income Growth | +34.5% | -38.5% | +49.4% | +41.0% |
| EBITDA Growth | +0.1% | -18.4% | +40.3% | +25.5% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 9:11am (23d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | $0.73 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-20 | $0.68 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-21 | $0.68 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-15 | $0.68 | — | — | — |
| 2025-05-23 | $0.68 | — | — | — |
| 2025-02-21 | $0.63 | — | — | — |
| 2024-11-15 | $0.63 | — | — | — |
| 2024-08-16 | $0.63 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-16 | $0.63 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-22 | $0.59 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-16 | $0.59 | — | — | — |
| 2023-08-17 | $0.59 | — | — | — |
| 2023-05-18 | $0.59 | — | — | — |
| 2023-02-23 | $0.55 | — | — | — |
| 2022-11-17 | $0.55 | — | — | — |
| 2022-08-18 | $0.55 | — | — | — |
| 2022-05-19 | $0.55 | — | — | — |
| 2022-02-24 | $0.51 | — | — | — |
| 2021-11-18 | $0.51 | — | — | — |
| 2021-08-19 | $0.51 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-19 11:02Even the bull case prices 26% below today — the ratio here measures the model-vs-market gap, not payoff odds. Another quarter like the worst recent one costs 53%.
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($215.22) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +22% | 9.6% | $160.18 | -26% |
| Base — stabilizes | +15% | 8.3% | $112.38 | -48% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +7% | 7.1% | $76.78 | -64% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | +9% | 9.1% | $100.63 | -53% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Looking at the raw quarterly cadence first: revenue has climbed from $20.09B (Q3'24) to $24.71B (Q2'26), a clean ~23% two-year expansion with net margins oscillating in a 6.7–9.3% band. The most recent quarter is the strongest print in the series on both top line and margin (8.7% vs 7.3% two years prior). TTM revenue is roughly $93.5B, TTM net income ~$7.75B — meaning the trailing multiple is closer to ~37x, not 43x, and forward earnings power looks materially higher than the 2025 annual $6.73B the synthesis is anchoring on. FCF of $7.94B against a $290B cap is a 2.7% yield — thin but not disastrous for a defense compounder with a locked backlog. The balance sheet line showing $204M total debt is almost certainly a data error (RTX carries ~$40B+ in long-term debt in reality); a debt/equity of 0.003 for a post-merger aerospace prime is not credible and undermines the ev/ebitda of 20.6, which likely understates EV meaningfully. This is a material data hygiene problem the synthesis appears to have ignored.
On the prior models: the DCF fair value of $108–111 implying a 48% overvaluation feels mechanically derived and directionally wrong for a business compounding earnings at 41% YoY with structural defense tailwinds. The Narrative layer is more honest — it correctly identifies that ~half the market cap is narrative loading on a defense supercycle — but then hand-waves that the DCF is "conservative." Both can be true: the stock is expensive AND the DCF is too punitive. A 45% earnings CAGR (even off a GTF-depressed base) reconciled against a 43x trailing / ~28-30x forward multiple is not "priced for perfection" — it's priced for continued execution, which RTX has actually been delivering for six straight quarters. The pre-flight thesis that current earnings are a trough is directly supported by the sequential margin recovery (6.9% → 8.7%). The synthesis and DCF verdict are internally inconsistent with the momentum module sitting right next to them.
The contrarian case a careful skeptic would push: GTF remediation costs may not be fully behind the company — Pratt's aftermarket margin normalization has been promised for two years and keeps slipping. Defense budget growth is politically locked but appropriations timing is not; a 2026-2027 continuing resolution scenario compresses the backlog conversion. The insider activity is mildly negative — six sales versus three awards and one option exercise in the July 2026 cluster suggests management isn't accumulating at $215. The dividend yield of 1.29% with a 53% payout ratio means you're not being paid to wait, and at 4.3x book with 10% ROE, the return-on-equity math doesn't justify the multiple unless margins expand another 200-300bps. Current ratio of 1.03 is tight for a working-capital-heavy prime. And "decelerating quarterly trend" in the revenue confidence signal is worth noting — Q2'26's 9.7% YoY is solid but not accelerating from the 10-13% range seen earlier in the trajectory.
Net read: I dissent from the synthesis's $111 fair value as too draconian but agree the stock is not cheap. Applying a defense-prime multiple of 22-25x forward earnings to a reasonable $9.5-10B forward NI run-rate (extrapolating current quarterly cadence) gets you to $210-250B in market cap, or roughly $155-185/share. That's still 15-25% below current — overvalued, but nowhere near the 48% haircut the DCF suggests. The narrative premium is real and durable (NATO rearmament, China posture, industrial reshoring are not transient), which supports paying above pure DCF. I'd anchor fair value around $170-180, treat $215 as full-to-modestly-rich, and note that the setup does NOT justify shorting — a defense compounder with a $200B+ backlog, structural tailwinds, and re-accelerating margins is not where you press bearish bets. For longs, wait for a $180-handle pullback or a GTF-related headline flush; don't chase here. The models collectively over-index on DCF mechanics and under-weight the earnings inflection already visible in the quarterly tape.
GPT Reading
What stands out is that the business is recovering faster than the headline valuation skeptics want to admit, but the stock is still pricing in a lot more than “recovery.” Revenue has stepped up from $68.9B in 2023 to $80.7B in 2024 and $88.6B in 2025, and the quarterly run-rate in the first half of 2026 is even better: $46.8B of revenue and $4.2B of net income in six months implies a path to roughly $93B-$95B of sales and $8B+ of earnings if the back half is merely normal. That is a real improvement, not optical. Operating income moved from $3.56B in 2023 to $6.54B in 2024 and $9.30B in 2025, so margins are rebuilding with scale. The quarter pattern also matters: 2026 Q1 and Q2 net margins of 9.3% and 8.7% are above the 2025 quarterly range of 7.6%-8.5%, suggesting the earnings trough is likely behind the company.
The balance sheet and cash flow are much stronger than the P/E makes the story look. With just $204M of debt against $7.44B of cash, RTX is effectively in a net cash position, which is unusual quality for a company of this size and makes enterprise-value comparisons more relevant than equity multiples. Free cash flow of $7.94B on $88.6B of 2025 revenue is a solid 9.0% FCF margin, and operating cash flow of $10.57B comfortably covered the dividend despite a 53% payout ratio on earnings. That matters because the market is not paying for a distressed turnaround with financing risk; it is paying for a high-quality franchise with proven cash conversion and improving profitability. On that basis, the simplistic “43x P/E means absurdly overvalued” read is too blunt, because current earnings still appear depressed relative to the business’s cash generation and probable normalized margin power.
But even giving full credit for normalization, $215 is hard to justify. On 2025 earnings of $6.73B, the market cap implies a 43x P/E; if 2026 net income reaches, say, $8.3B annualized from the first-half trend, the forward multiple is still about 35x. For an aerospace and defense company producing around 10.5% operating margins, 7.6% net margins, 12.6% ROIC, and sub-10% recent organic-looking top-line growth, that is an elite multiple. EV/revenue at 3.18x and EV/EBITDA at 20.6x are also rich for a mature industrial with execution risk still embedded in the story. The market is valuing RTX less like a steady compounder and more like a scarcity asset with near-perfect visibility on defense demand, aftermarket recovery, and engine issue resolution. That can hold for a while, but it leaves very little room for ordinary industrial friction.
The best argument against my cautious stance is straightforward: earnings are still materially understated. If 2023 was the trough at $3.2B of net income and 2025 has already reached $6.7B, then a move to $9B-$10B over the next 12-24 months is not heroic. At $10B of net income, today’s market cap is about 29x earnings, which is still expensive but no longer crazy for a net-cash, strategically critical defense and aerospace leader with long-cycle revenue, strong aftermarket exposure, and geopolitical tailwinds. The quarterly data do support that possibility: revenue is still rising, margins are improving, and the cash profile is already better than GAAP earnings imply. A smart bull would also point out that insider sales here are small and look compensation-related, not a meaningful vote against the stock. I weigh that case lower because even a fairly bullish normalized earnings bridge still struggles to make $215 look cheap; it only makes it look less extreme.
What would change my mind is not another decent quarter, but proof that RTX can convert this revenue base into meaningfully higher margins and cash without the market paying for it twice. If the next few quarters show revenue sustaining above $24B while net margins move durably into the 10%-11% range, that would support a $9B-$10B earnings power case. Similarly, annual free cash flow pushing through $10B with operating income heading toward $11B-$12B would make the current price more defensible. On the other hand, if growth slips back toward low single digits or margins stall around the current 8%-9% quarterly range, then today’s multiple is simply too rich for the delivered economics.
Grok Reading
RTX’s operating trajectory is unambiguously improving and the balance-sheet quality is elite, yet the multiple still looks detached from what the income statement can realistically support. Revenue has climbed from $68.9B in 2023 to $88.6B in 2025 and is still printing mid-to-high single-digit growth into 2026 ($24.7B in the June quarter, +14% year-on-year), while net income has nearly doubled from the 2023 trough of $3.2B to $6.73B. Operating margin has expanded from roughly 5% to 10.5%, free cash flow reached $7.94B on only $2.63B of capex, and the company carries essentially zero net debt ($204M gross debt against $7.44B cash). Those are the numbers of a high-quality industrial compounding out of a multi-year impairment cycle, not a broken franchise. The GTF cash drag is visibly fading and commercial aftermarket plus elevated defense volume are both real.
The problem is price. At $215 the stock trades at 43× trailing earnings, 20.6× EV/EBITDA and 3.3× sales for a business that still delivers only 10% ROE and 7.6% net margins. Even if one grants the bull case that normalized earnings power reaches $10–11B once Pratt & Whitney fully exits the recall trough and defense budgets stay elevated, a 22–25× multiple on that figure—already generous for a mature aerospace conglomerate—implies a market value of roughly $220–275B, i.e., flat to modestly lower than today’s $290B. In other words the market has already capitalized the entire recovery arc plus a geopolitical premium. Recent quarterly revenue growth is decelerating, the payout ratio sits at 53%, and insiders have been net sellers into strength; none of that supports a 43× starting multiple.
The strongest counter-argument is that the $111 DCF fair-value print is too austere and ignores the structural duration of the defense supercycle. NATO rearmament, Indo-Pacific deterrence, and industrial-base reshoring are multi-year political commitments, not one-cycle blips; Pratt’s installed GTF base will eventually flip from cash drain to high-margin aftermarket annuity; and a fortress balance sheet plus $8B of FCF gives management real optionality on capital return or bolt-on M&A. If FCF scales to $12B+ by 2028 and the market continues to award defense names a scarcity premium, today’s price can be rationalized as a 4–5% FCF yield on forward cash. That case is coherent—it is simply already fully reflected in the 93% premium to conservative intrinsic value and leaves almost no margin of safety.
I would reverse to neutral or constructive only if two things arrive together: clear evidence that GTF shop-visit cash costs have peaked and are reversing on a multi-quarter basis, and a forward operating-margin run-rate sustainably above 13–14% while revenue growth holds double digits. Absent that combination, or a pullback toward the mid-$150s, the asymmetry is unfavorable.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
RTX has scaled revenue from $64.4B in 2021 to $88.6B in 2025 (roughly 8% CAGR) while operating margin expanded from 7.7% to 10.5% and net income moved from $3.86B to $6.73B. FCF re-established after the 2021 outflow of -$2.13B and reached $7.94B in 2025, with OCF/NI at 1.73x and accruals at -2% of assets - clean cash conversion consistent with a mature earner. Altman Z at 2.85 sits in the grey zone (typical for a capital-intensive prime with sizeable debt), but $8.19B liquid cash and $7.98B net cash plus durable FCF make funding non-issue. Dilution is not a concern: diluted shares fell from 1.51B to 1.36B (-2.6% CAGR), SBC is only 0.6% of revenue, and buyback/SBC ratio of 824% means per-share value is being concentrated. Insider tape is neutral-to-mildly negative (17 sells, 0 open-market buys over 12 months) but volumes are modest and dominated by option-exercise / award-cycle activity rather than conviction dumps. The GTF powder-metal engine issue lingers as a known overhang not visible in these ratios but plausibly reflected in the 2023 margin dip to 5.2% before recovery.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Remaining GTF powder-metal recall accrual and cash outflow schedule per the 10-K
- Defense segment backlog composition and fixed-price contract exposure
- Gross debt maturity ladder and any near-term refinancing risk
- Customer/program concentration (Pratt aftermarket, F-35, Raytheon defense primes)
- Pension and OPEB funded status given size of the workforce
The e2e composite fair value of $108.29 (signal-adjusted $111.26) implies roughly -48% downside from $215.22. Cross-checking the methods: the anchored P/E of $141.34 is the most business-sensible anchor for a strong, cash-generative prime and still sits ~34% below spot; the DCF at $118.10 corroborates a fair value in the low $100s; the EPV floor of $55.60 is a no-growth stress case, not a target. Even generously weighting the anchored P/E and adding a premium for the Strong quality grade (score 61, real FCF, disciplined buybacks), a defensible deserved price lands around $150-165, still ~25-30% below the market.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- GTF powder-metal remediation cost trajectory and any incremental charges in upcoming 10-Q
- Defense segment book-to-bill and Raytheon margin recovery cadence
- Commercial aftermarket organic growth vs OEM deliveries mix in guidance
- Free cash flow conversion vs guided $7-8B range and buyback pace
The active narrative around RTX is a strong, durable platform-monopoly story: defense supercycle, NATO rearmament, Iran/China threat premium, and commercial aero recovery. News flow in the last 72 hours is uniformly supportive - a $1.3B F135 sustainment award, a Q2 beat with raised outlook and record backlog, Lockheed's mega missile contract reinforcing the sector-wide spending thesis, and Morgan Stanley reiterating Overweight (even after a modest PT trim to $220). Analyst tone is constructive and the peer read-across (LHX beat and raised) amplifies the group bid.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Whether the Iran/Middle East risk premium fades or escalates - direct driver of the missile-restocking bid
- Any fresh GTF/P&W reliability headline that could re-open the bear crack the F135 award just closed
- FY27 defense budget signals from Congress; any fiscal-restraint headline would pressure the whole cohort
- Sector rotation out of defense primes if a risk-on tech tape reasserts
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.
When we made this prediction on Aug 2, 2026, RTX was $215.22. We expect it to be $200.50 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $150.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 2, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.