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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Low · Gem Score -30 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 0 · Value -54 · Sentiment -61 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $129.10 vs $151.60 at analysis
Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable
reference-name attribute you can cite):
profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
More for machine readers: site briefing at
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any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER ·
raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds);
every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.
QUALCOMM Incorporated
QCOM NASDAQQUALCOMM Incorporated develops and commercializes foundational technologies and products essential for mobile devices and other wireless products. The company operates through three key segments: Qualcomm CDMA Technologies (QCT), which designs and supplies integrated circuits and system software for voice and data communications, networking, application processing, multimedia, and global positioning systems; Qualcomm Technology Licensing (QTL), which licenses intellectual property including patents critical for 4G and 5G networks used in the majority of handsets; and Qualcomm Strategic Initiatives (QSI), focusing on strategic investments. QUALCOMM Incorporated powers innovations in smartphones, IoT devices, automotive systems, and emerging AI data-center applications through its Snapdragon processors and connectivity solutions. Serving global markets in consumer electronics, automotive, and enterprise sectors, it plays a pivotal role in advancing wireless communications and semiconductor technologies. Founded in 1985 and headquartered in San Diego, California, QUALCOMM Incorporated remains a cornerstone in the semiconductor industry.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 5.01
Total Equity: $21.21B
Shares: 1,105,000,000
Total Debt: $14.81B
Cash: $5.52B
EBITDA: $13.96B
Total Debt: $14.81B
Cash: $5.52B
Revenue: $44.28B
Revenue: $44.28B
Revenue: $44.28B
Total Equity: $21.21B
Tax Rate: 56.2%
Equity: $21.21B
Total Debt: $14.81B
Cash: $5.52B
Current Liabilities: $9.14B
Long-Term Debt: $14.81B
Total Debt: $14.81B
Total Equity: $21.21B
Shares: 1,105,000,000
Shares: 1,105,000,000
CapEx: -$1.19B
Shares: 1,105,000,000
Stock Price: $153.37
Net Income: $5.54B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 9:37pm (23d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $33.6B | $44.2B | $35.8B | $39.0B | $44.3B |
| Cost of Revenue | $14.3B | $18.6B | $15.9B | $17.1B | $19.7B |
| Gross Profit | $19.3B | $25.6B | $20.0B | $21.9B | $24.5B |
| Operating Expenses | $9.5B | $9.7B | $12.2B | $11.8B | $12.2B |
| Operating Income | $9.8B | $15.9B | $7.8B | $10.1B | $12.4B |
| Net Income | $9.0B | $12.9B | $7.2B | $10.1B | $5.5B |
| EBITDA | $11.4B | $17.6B | $9.6B | $11.8B | $14.0B |
| EPS | $7.99 | $11.52 | $6.47 | $9.09 | $5.05 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $7.87 | $11.37 | $6.42 | $8.97 | $5.01 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 8:31pm (23d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $7.1B | $2.8B | $8.5B | $7.8B | $5.5B |
| Total Current Assets | $20.1B | $20.7B | $22.5B | $25.2B | $25.8B |
| Total Assets | $41.2B | $49.0B | $51.0B | $55.2B | $50.1B |
| Current Liabilities | $12.0B | $11.9B | $9.6B | $10.5B | $9.1B |
| Long-Term Debt | $13.7B | $13.5B | $14.5B | $13.3B | $14.8B |
| Total Liabilities | $31.3B | $31.0B | $29.5B | $28.9B | $28.9B |
| Total Equity | $10.0B | $18.0B | $21.6B | $26.3B | $21.2B |
| Retained Earnings | $9.8B | $17.8B | $20.7B | $25.7B | $20.6B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 9:37pm (23d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $10.5B | $9.1B | $11.3B | $12.2B | $14.0B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$1.9B | -$2.3B | -$1.5B | -$1.0B | -$1.2B |
| Free Cash Flow | $8.6B | $6.8B | $9.8B | $11.2B | $12.8B |
| Acquisitions (net) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | $0 | -$63.0M | $1.9B | $0 | $1.5B |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | -$3.4B | -$3.1B | -$3.0B | -$4.1B | -$8.8B |
| Net Change in Cash | $409.0M | -$4.0B | $5.4B | -$678.0M | -$6.0M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 9:37pm (23d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +31.7% | -19.0% | +8.8% | +13.7% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +32.4% | -22.0% | +9.8% | +12.1% |
| Operating Income Growth | +62.0% | -50.9% | +29.3% | +22.7% |
| Net Income Growth | +43.0% | -44.1% | +40.2% | -45.4% |
| EBITDA Growth | +55.0% | -45.5% | +22.7% | +18.5% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 8:31pm (23d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | $0.92 | — | — | — |
| 2026-06-04 | $0.92 | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-05 | $0.89 | — | — | — |
| 2025-12-04 | $0.89 | — | — | — |
| 2025-09-04 | $0.89 | — | — | — |
| 2025-06-05 | $0.89 | — | — | — |
| 2025-03-06 | $0.85 | — | — | — |
| 2024-12-05 | $0.85 | — | — | — |
| 2024-09-05 | $0.85 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-30 | $0.85 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-28 | $0.80 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-29 | $0.80 | — | — | — |
| 2023-08-30 | $0.80 | — | — | — |
| 2023-05-31 | $0.80 | — | — | — |
| 2023-03-01 | $0.75 | — | — | — |
| 2022-11-30 | $0.75 | — | — | — |
| 2022-08-31 | $0.75 | — | — | — |
| 2022-06-01 | $0.75 | — | — | — |
| 2022-03-02 | $0.68 | — | — | — |
| 2021-12-01 | $0.68 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-19 10:59Even the bull case prices 55% below today — the ratio here measures the model-vs-market gap, not payoff odds. Another quarter like the worst recent one costs 80%.
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($151.60) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +6% | 24.2% | $68.31 | -55% |
| Base — stabilizes | +4% | 21.0% | $57.09 | -62% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +2% | 17.9% | $47.02 | -69% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | -4% | 12.9% | $30.54 | -80% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
The quarterly tape has a data-integrity problem the models glossed over. The March 2026 quarter shows $10.60B revenue with $7.37B net income — a 69.5% margin — sandwiched between a $3.00B and (going backward through the sequence) a -$3.12B print in Sept 2025. That's almost certainly a tax settlement, litigation reversal, or deferred-tax revaluation, not operating earnings. Strip that out and TTM net income is roughly $10B, not the ~$14B a naive sum implies. FY2025 annual NI of $5.54B versus FY2024's $10.14B on higher revenue ($44.3B vs $39.0B) is the real signal — something impaired FY2025 earnings badly (the Sept-2025 -$3.12B quarter), and operating margin at the annual level compressed to 27.9% from prior peak levels north of 35% in FY2022. The pe_ratio of 30.3x is therefore mechanically distorted; on normalized ~$10-11B earnings, QCOM trades closer to 15-16x, which is roughly in line with a mature semi with 11% revenue CAGR.
Where I part company with the synthesis: the "fully_priced / $122 fair value" verdict leans heavily on the reported PE and the Market Forces "structural margin erosion" claim, but the operating data doesn't really support erosion. Gross margin held at 55.4%, FCF grew at 14.1% CAGR to $12.82B (a 7.8% FCF yield on the current cap), and recent revenue YoY is +13.7% — that's not a commoditizing business rolling over, that's a cyclical trough recovering with Android unit strength and early auto contribution. Debt/equity 0.70, current ratio 2.8, ROIC 17.7% — this balance sheet is not stressed. The Market Forces model and the Synthesis model are effectively double-counting the same bearish read (margin fear + PE optics), and Pre-Flight's "multi-segment narrative requires $12-15B auto by 2027" is a strawman — QCOM doesn't need heroic auto growth to justify $153; it needs licensing to hold and QCT to not collapse.
The contrarian bear case worth taking seriously is not margin erosion — it's the Apple modem in-sourcing tail risk (Apple is ~20% of QCT revenue and the licensing exit ramps through 2027), plus Huawei/Chinese SoC substitution in premium Android. Neither is visible in this dataset because the licensing/QCT split isn't broken out here, which is a real analytical gap. Insider activity is genuinely uninformative — ten small sales on a single day in July 2026 with no identified filer is almost certainly programmatic 10b5-1 or RSU vest cover, not a signal. The Narrative model's "24% premium to $122 DCF" is the crux: I think that DCF underweights the $12.8B FCF run-rate. At a 6% FCF yield (reasonable for a 3G/4G/5G IP owner with 2.4% dividend and buybacks), fair value is ~$213B market cap or ~$199/share; at 8% yield (penalizing Apple risk), $160B / ~$150/share. That brackets the current $153 as fair-to-slightly-cheap, not 20% overpriced.
I dissent from the synthesis verdict. The models triangulated to "fully_priced" by trusting a distorted GAAP PE and by treating decelerating earnings as structural when the FY2025 damage was a discrete charge quarter. On normalized earnings and FCF, QCOM at 12.4x EV/EBITDA and ~13x normalized P/E is a reasonable price for a business compounding revenue at 11% with 55% gross margins and $12.8B of free cash flow. It's not a screaming buy — the Apple modem cliff is real and unquantified in this file — but calling it 20% overvalued requires believing licensing collapses, which the data doesn't show. Fair value range $150-180; current $153 sits at the low end. The right posture is a starter position with a hard re-evaluation after the next two quarterly prints resolve whether the Q1-2026 tax gain is truly one-time and whether QCT margins hold sequentially.
GPT Reading
What jumps out first is that Qualcomm’s core business is healthier than the headline P/E suggests, but the stock is not cheap because the income statement has become noisy enough to hide what investors are actually paying for. Revenue recovered from $38.96B in FY2024 to $44.28B in FY2025, basically back to the 2022 peak of $44.20B, and quarterly sales have stayed in a solid $10.3B-$12.3B band for six straight quarters. That is not a business in deterioration. Operating income in FY2025 was $12.36B, up sharply from $10.07B in FY2024 and well above $7.79B in FY2023, while free cash flow reached $12.82B on just $1.19B of capex. On the current $164B market cap, that is roughly a 7.8% FCF yield before any heroics. For a company with 55.4% gross margin, 27.9% operating margin, 17.7% ROIC, and a licensing franchise that still throws off cash like a royalty tollbooth, that is respectable. The reported 30.3x P/E is clearly distorted by the FY2025 net income collapse to $5.54B despite much stronger operating performance; when operating profit is up but net income halves, I assume accounting/event noise before I assume economic collapse.
The quarterly data reinforces that view, but also explains why the market is refusing to give Qualcomm a full premium multiple. Excluding the bizarre swings, Qualcomm has been running a very consistent 24%-28% net margin business: $3.18B on $11.67B in Dec-2024, $2.81B on $10.98B in Mar-2025, $2.67B on $10.37B in Jun-2025, then $3.00B on $12.25B in Dec-2025. The obvious outliers are the Sep-2025 quarter with a $3.12B loss on $11.27B revenue and the Mar-2026 quarter with an absurd 69.5% net margin, $7.37B on $10.60B revenue. Those are not operating margins; they are almost certainly one-off tax or legal/accounting effects. If I normalize Qualcomm around roughly $11B quarterly revenue and $2.8B-$3.0B quarterly earnings power, I get annual earnings in the $11B-$12B range, not the reported $5.54B trough. That implies the stock is trading closer to 14x-15x normalized earnings than 30x. For a dominant mobile modem/IP company with strong cash conversion and modest net debt of about $9.3B, that is closer to fair than expensive.
My read, then, is that Qualcomm is neither the “priced for perfection” story some models are pushing nor an outright bargain. The market is paying a modest premium for durability: recurring licensing economics, a balance sheet that is fine at 0.70x debt/equity and 2.8x current ratio, and enough diversification optionality to keep investors from valuing it like a no-growth handset supplier. But that premium should remain capped because the top line has not truly escaped the smartphone gravity well. Yes, annual revenue rebounded 13.7% recently and the five-year revenue CAGR is 11.2%, but that five-year path includes a round trip from $44.20B in 2022 down to $35.82B in 2023 and back to $44.28B in 2025. That is cyclical recovery, not yet structural re-rating proof. At 3.8x sales and 12.4x EV/EBITDA, the stock already assumes the non-handset pieces can smooth the cycle. I think that is mostly fair at $153, with upside only if Qualcomm can show the current revenue plateau can become a durable climb.
The best argument against my more balanced read is straightforward: maybe the market is right to look through the accounting distortions and award a higher multiple because the business quality is simply better than legacy semiconductor comps. A company generating $14.01B in operating cash flow and $12.82B in free cash flow on $44.28B revenue is converting nearly 29% of sales into FCF, which is elite. ROE of 26.1% and ROA of 11.1% are strong even after the ugly FY2025 net income print, and the gross margin profile remains high enough to support the thesis that Qualcomm is really a hybrid IP platform, not just a chip vendor. If the strange Sep-2025 loss was entirely non-recurring, and the Mar-2026 earnings spike reflects some real economic unlock rather than noise, then using annual EPS-based valuation badly understates the true earnings power. In that case, $153 may actually be conservative for a business that could be earning north of $11B annually with a dividend yield of 2.4% and room for continued capital returns.
What would change my mind is concrete evidence that Qualcomm is either breaking out of its revenue band or losing its normalized margin structure. If the next few quarters can sustain revenue above $12B without one-off help and keep normalized net margin in the mid-20s, then the diversification story is becoming real and I would move bullish even above $160. Conversely, if revenue slips back under $10.5B while normalized net income falls below roughly $2.5B per quarter, then the current multiple is too generous and I would want the stock closer to $125-$135, in line with a lower-teens multiple on less dependable earnings power.
Grok Reading
The raw numbers tell a story of a cash machine whose reported earnings have become almost unusable as a valuation anchor. Qualcomm put up $44.28B in fiscal 2025 revenue—essentially flat with the 2022 peak of $44.20B and up 13.7% from the prior year—while generating $12.82B of free cash flow and a 27.9% operating margin. That FCF figure is the cleanest signal in the entire briefing: capex remains light at $1.19B, operating cash flow hit $14.01B, and the company still clears a 2.4% dividend yield with a manageable 0.70 debt-to-equity ratio. Yet net income collapsed to $5.54B from $10.14B the year before, driven by a -$3.12B loss quarter in September 2025 and then an absurd $7.37B profit (69.5% net margin) in the March 2026 quarter that can only be a large one-time item. Strip the noise and you have a mature dual-engine business—chip volume plus licensing—still printing mid-teens ROIC and high-20s operating margins, growing top line at an 11% CAGR, but no longer delivering the $11–13B of clean annual earnings the market once capitalized.
The valuation the market is applying sits uncomfortably above that reality. At $153.37 the stock trades at 30x trailing earnings, 3.8x sales and 12.4x EV/EBITDA, while the composite fair-value work points to roughly $122–127. Even giving credit for the licensing moat and normalizing earnings around an $11B run-rate (pre one-time noise) still leaves the shares at a mid-teens multiple of that cleaner number—acceptable for a quality franchise, but not cheap once you notice that recent revenue growth is already flagged as decelerating and that the entire 2025 net-margin compression to 12.5% has not been fully explained by mix alone. The diversification narrative (auto/IoT to $12–15B) is doing real work in the price; the income statement has not yet shown it.
The strongest counter-argument is straightforward and quantitative. Free-cash-flow yield is nearly 8% on the current market cap, EV/FCF is only about 13.5x, operating income actually rose to $12.36B from $10.07B, and ROE remains a healthy 26%. A skeptic of the “overvalued” label would note that the 30x PE is an artifact of the noisy $5.54B GAAP number; on normalized earnings or on FCF the multiple looks closer to 14–15x, squarely in line with a mature earner that still owns essential 5G/6G IP. Add the balance-sheet liquidity (current ratio 2.8) and the fact that every prior-model archetype still classifies Qualcomm as a durable cash compounder, and the bear case has to concede that downside to the $122 composite may be cushioned by the cash generation itself. I weigh this less heavily because the market is already paying the platform-re-rating multiple the bull story requires, while the quarterly revenue trend is decelerating and the earnings CAGR over the last several years is negative 12.5%.
What would flip the view is simple and observable: two consecutive quarters in which automotive-plus-IoT revenue is disclosed at a run-rate that makes the $12–15B 2027–28 target credible, paired with operating margin holding above 28% and GAAP net income stabilizing above $2.8B per quarter without one-time props. Until those prints arrive, the shares look 15–20% ahead of fundamentals.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
None surfaced.
None surfaced.
The composite fair value sits at $127.15 and the signal-adjusted FV at $121.99, both meaningfully below the $151.60 price - implying roughly -20% downside to deserved value. The DCF ($139.90) is the most generous credible anchor and still lands below spot; the anchored-PE method at $169.30 is the lone bull marker but it leans on peer multiples that already embed the same AI-phone optimism. The EPV floor of $59.49 is a reminder that stripping growth reveals a much thinner core - useful as a downside marker, not a target.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Handset royalty run-rate and any Huawei/Chinese OEM licensing settlements
- Apple modem transition timeline and remaining QCT revenue exposure
- Automotive design-win backlog conversion cadence
- Snapdragon ASP trends vs MediaTek in mid-tier Android
- Buyback pace and net cash position feeding into the DCF
The immediate pressure on QCOM is negative and news-driven: nine analysts just cut targets in a single session, the stock dropped 3.1% intraday, and the headline framing ('Qualcomm's Data Center Bet Meets Harsh Reality') is actively puncturing the diversification story that had been the bull's escape hatch from smartphone cyclicality. Weakening Apple modem demand is a known overhang now being re-priced, and the platform-monopoly narrative, while durable, is only moderate intensity with low cult support - meaning there is no fanatical buyer base to absorb the sell-side downgrade wave. This is a story losing altitude, not collapsing, but the tape has no patience for it today. Macro amplifies rather than dominates. VIX 17 and a neutral regime are not hostile, but with beta 1.64, QCOM lives leveraged to any risk-off twitch, and 10y at 4.67% plus a market PE of 26 keeps semis crowded and vulnerable to rotation. Peer news is mixed-to-unhelpful: NVDA is rebounding and taking mindshare/flows, AMD is being scrutinized on valuation, and the AI-in-phones price-hike story is a mild positive but far from a QCOM-specific catalyst. Net: analyst tone has turned, the diversification narrative is cracking, and there is no offsetting euphoria - a real headwind, not a crisis.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Whether the analyst target cuts extend into a second wave or stabilize within a week
- Any Snapdragon design-win or Samsung/Xiaomi flagship commentary that could revive the premium-handset share story
- Sector rotation signals - if NVDA/AI-datacenter names rally without QCOM, the relative-underperformance signal deepens
- Next earnings guide on data-center revenue trajectory to see if the 'harsh reality' framing is validated or refuted
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.
When we made this prediction on Jul 31, 2026, QCOM was $151.60. We expect it to be $136.50 by Jan 2027, and we consider it great value under $122.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Jul 31, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.