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AGING Analysis Report
Aug 4, 2026
19 days ago · 100% complete
NOT DEPENDABLE This report predates a filing — its financial basis has been replaced.
Report generated: Aug 4, 2026 · Filing on record since: Aug 20, 2026 · 16 days after
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Abbott Laboratories (ABT) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score -6 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 67 · Value -66 · Sentiment 0 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $79.95 vs $107.12 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

Abbott Laboratories

ABT NYSE
Healthcare · Medical Devices
Abbott Park, IL 60064-6400, United States abbott.com Updated Aug 4, 12:01am
Price
$107.12
Market Cap
$185.4B
Employees
122,000
Beta
0.58
Avg Volume
12,491,761
Last Dividend
$2.48
CEO
Mr. Robert B. Ford

Abbott Laboratories is a diversified healthcare company that discovers, develops, manufactures, and sells a comprehensive range of medical products and pharmaceuticals globally. The company operates through four primary segments: Established Pharmaceutical Products, Diagnostic Products, Nutritional Products, and Medical Devices. Its medical device portfolio includes pacemakers, implantable cardioverter defibrillators, neuromodulation devices, coronary stents, and catheters designed to treat cardiovascular and neurological conditions. Abbott also produces continuous glucose monitors for diabetes management and diagnostic equipment including immunoassays and point-of-care testing kits. In nutrition, the company manufactures infant formula, adult nutritional liquids, and specialized dietary products for pediatric and adult populations. Abbott's established pharmaceutical segment offers branded generic medications across multiple therapeutic areas. With headquarters in Abbott Park, Illinois, and operations spanning more than 160 countries, Abbott derives approximately 60 percent of its sales from international markets, making it a truly global healthcare provider serving healthcare professionals, patients, and consumers worldwide.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 4, 2026 12:33am
Price Overview
Price at report time
$107.12
as of Aug 4, 12:41am (19d ago)
Change · Aug 4
+1.42 (+1.34%)
Day Range
$106.43 – $109.33
52-Week Range
$81.97 – $137.49
50-Day MA
$93.68
200-Day MA
$108.22
Volume
4,766,729.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 19d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 1,730,383,296.00
Float 1,719,706,831.00
Free Float 99.4%
High free float — 99.4% of shares trade freely, ~0.6% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 4, 2026 12:50am (19d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Aug 1, 2026 6:32pm (22d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 4, 2026 12:30am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
28.80
Stock Price: $107.12
EPS (Diluted): 3.72
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
3.55
Stock Price: $107.12
Total Equity: $52.77B
Shares: 1,748,000,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
20.14
Market Cap: $185.36B
Total Debt: $12.93B
Cash: $8.52B
EBITDA: $9.49B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$191.1B
Market Cap: $185.36B
Total Debt: $12.93B
Cash: $8.52B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
56.4%
Gross Profit: $25.01B
Revenue: $44.33B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
18.2%
Operating Income: $8.05B
Revenue: $44.33B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
14.7%
Net Income: $6.52B
Revenue: $44.33B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
12.4%
Net Income: $6.52B
Total Equity: $52.77B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
10.9%
Operating Income: $8.05B
Tax Rate: 22.9%
Equity: $52.77B
Total Debt: $12.93B
Cash: $8.52B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.58
Current Assets: $26.00B
Current Liabilities: $16.50B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.25
Short-Term Debt: $3.03B
Long-Term Debt: $9.90B
Total Debt: $12.93B
Total Equity: $52.77B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$25.36
Revenue: $44.33B
Shares: 1,748,000,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$30.19
Total Equity: $52.77B
Shares: 1,748,000,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$4.23
Operating CF: $9.57B
CapEx: -$2.17B
Shares: 1,748,000,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
2.3%
Last Dividend: $2.48
Stock Price: $107.12
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $6.52B
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 4, 2026 12:29am
Compares ABT against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 1, 2026 6:32pm (22d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $43.1B $43.7B $40.1B $42.0B $44.3B
Cost of Revenue $18.5B $19.1B $18.0B $18.7B $19.3B
Gross Profit $24.5B $24.5B $22.1B $23.2B $25.0B
Operating Expenses $16.1B $16.1B $15.7B $16.4B $17.0B
Operating Income $8.4B $8.4B $6.5B $6.8B $8.1B
Net Income $7.1B $6.9B $5.7B $13.4B $6.5B
EBITDA $9.9B $9.6B $7.8B $8.2B $9.5B
EPS $3.97 $3.94 $3.28 $7.67 $3.73
EPS (Diluted) $3.94 $3.91 $3.26 $7.64 $3.72
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 12:09am (24d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $9.8B $9.9B $6.9B $7.6B $8.5B
Total Current Assets $24.2B $25.2B $22.7B $23.7B $26.0B
Total Assets $75.2B $74.4B $73.2B $81.4B $86.7B
Current Liabilities $13.1B $15.5B $13.8B $14.2B $16.5B
Long-Term Debt $17.3B $14.5B $13.6B $12.6B $9.9B
Total Liabilities $39.2B $37.5B $34.4B $33.5B $33.9B
Total Equity $36.0B $36.9B $38.8B $47.9B $52.8B
Retained Earnings $31.5B $35.3B $37.6B $47.3B $49.8B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 1, 2026 6:32pm (22d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $10.5B $9.6B $7.3B $8.6B $9.6B
Capital Expenditure -$1.9B -$1.8B -$2.2B -$2.2B -$2.2B
Free Cash Flow $8.6B $7.8B $5.1B $6.4B $7.4B
Acquisitions (net)
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) -$248.0M
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks -$2.3B -$3.8B -$1.2B -$1.3B -$893.0M
Net Change in Cash $3.0B $83.0M -$3.0B $720.0M $906.0M
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 1, 2026 6:32pm (22d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +1.3% -8.1% +4.6% +5.7%
Gross Profit Growth -0.1% -9.7% +5.0% +7.6%
Operating Income Growth -0.7% -22.5% +5.4% +18.0%
Net Income Growth -2.0% -17.5% +134.2% -51.3%
EBITDA Growth -3.0% -19.4% +5.3% +16.2%
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 1, 2026 12:01am (22d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-07-15 $0.63
2026-04-15 $0.63
2026-01-15 $0.63
2025-10-15 $0.59
2025-07-15 $0.59
2025-04-15 $0.59
2025-01-15 $0.59
2024-10-15 $0.55
2024-07-15 $0.55
2024-04-12 $0.55
2024-01-11 $0.55
2023-10-12 $0.51
2023-07-13 $0.51
2023-04-13 $0.51
2023-01-12 $0.51
2022-10-13 $0.47
2022-07-14 $0.47
2022-04-13 $0.47
2022-01-13 $0.47
2021-10-14 $0.45
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable 18 computed · 6 not applicable
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-20 23:31
-0.6 : 1 recovery upside vs repeat-quarter downside
Even the bull case prices 33% below today — the ratio here measures the model-vs-market gap, not payoff odds. Another quarter like the worst recent one costs 60%.
CaseGrowthMarginFair valuevs price ($107.12)
Bull — recovery +10% 16.7% $71.37 -33%
Base — stabilizes +7% 14.6% $56.32 -47%
Bear — keeps slipping +3% 12.4% $43.57 -59%
Stress — last quarter repeats +8% 10.3% $42.51 -60%
The next quarters keep the trajectory of the most recent ones — growth stays at 7.8% and margins bend by the same profit-vs-revenue ratio (×0.74). Stress is a trajectory, not a prediction — it answers "what if the ship's current heading simply continues," which history says is the case to respect.
Why this is appearing: this company files quarterly, so its recent trajectory could be measured rather than assumed — the engine matched Mar 2026 against the same quarter one year earlier and found revenue +7.8% · operating income -20.6% · net income -18.7% year-over-year. That measured heading is what the stress case extends forward. Data measured through Mar 31, 2026 — this card recalculates automatically when the next quarterly filing is ingested. Companies without quarterly filings (many foreign listings) never show this card: with no measured trajectory, there is nothing honest to repeat.
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for ABT — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-08-04 00:49:46
Verdict Modestly overvalued at $107 — fair value $88-92 on normalized $3.75 EPS at a defensible 24x; wait for Q2'26 print to confirm whether Q1 margin compression is signal or noise before committing.

The raw trajectory tells a less flattering story than the "steady compounder" label suggests. Trailing four quarters (Q2'25 through Q1'26) sum to ~$45.1B revenue and ~$6.3B net income — implying a normalized net margin around 14% and TTM EPS near $3.60, which puts the real P/E closer to 30x, not 28.7x. More concerning: the most recent print (Q1'26) shows revenue of $11.16B (down sequentially from $11.46B) with net income collapsing to $1.08B and margin compressing to 9.6% — the weakest quarter in the two-year window ex the Q4'24 one-time gain. Revenue "growth" of 5.7% YoY is decelerating, not compounding, and the 2025 full-year revenue of $44.33B is only 1.6% above 2022's $43.65B — this is a business that has grown 5% cumulatively over three years, not 5% annually. The FCF CAGR of 20.9% is a base-effect artifact off a depressed COVID-comparison year and should be discounted heavily.

The synthesis models are directionally right but too gentle. The DCF anchor at $85.79 vs. $107.12 implies a 20% overvaluation, and the thesis evaluation's -13 score correctly flags the "Medtronic 2015" analog — a premium multiple on a mature medtech that de-rated from 28x to 15x over three years as Libre-equivalent growth stories decelerated. Where I dissent from the market-forces layer calling this "fair value at ~25x normalized earnings": Abbott isn't earning $4.30 normalized — it's earning ~$3.60 TTM with a decelerating top line and a Q1'26 that just delivered a 600bp margin compression. Calling that "fair value" requires believing the Q1 print is noise, and there's no evidence in the sequence (Q3'25 margin 14.5%, Q4'25 15.5%, Q1'26 9.6%) that this is a one-off — the trend is choppy and directionally lower. The 84.1% Q4'24 margin is obviously a divestiture/tax gain and should be excluded from any trend analysis; the 2024 annual NI of $13.4B similarly overstates the earnings base.

The contrarian bull case worth engaging: insider activity is genuinely constructive — two open-market P-Purchases (2,000 and 10,000 shares) in April-May 2026 is unusual for a mega-cap and suggests someone with information believes Q1 weakness is transitory. Balance sheet is fortress-grade (debt/equity 0.245, current ratio 1.58, $8.5B cash), dividend yield 2.32% is covered 3x by FCF, and ROIC of 10.8% on this asset base is respectable if unspectacular. If Libre re-accelerates on Type 2 penetration and structural heart hits, the 65-weight bull case has legs and you could see the multiple hold at 25-28x on $4.50 forward EPS = $115-125. But that's the bull case at current price, not upside — you're paying for it already. The narrative layer's "Berkshire-lite" framing is accurate but dangerous: that premium exists precisely because rates were lower and defensive quality was scarce; in a macro-headwind regime (as flagged), those premiums compress first.

I agree with the synthesis verdict of "fully_priced" but would go further — this is modestly overvalued with asymmetric downside if Q1'26 margin compression persists into Q2. Fair value framework: $3.75 normalized EPS × 24x (appropriate for 5% grower with quality balance sheet, above medtech peer average of 22x for the diversification premium) = $90. That's 16% below current price, aligning with the DCF's $85.79 anchor. The insider buying is the only reason I don't go more negative — it's a real signal, not a compliance artifact. But two purchases don't offset a decelerating top line, a compressing margin print, and a multiple that requires Libre to keep delivering what the numbers suggest it's already stopped delivering. Wait for the next print; if Q2'26 confirms Q1's margin compression, the re-rating to $85-90 happens fast. If Q2 recovers to 15%+ margins, revisit at $100 with more conviction.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-04 00:50:01
Verdict Overvalued at $107 — Abbott is a high-quality franchise, but the current multiple fits a cleaner medtech growth story; fair value looks closer to $90-95.

Abbott looks like a very good business priced like a better growth story than the numbers currently support. The core operating picture is solid: 2025 revenue was $44.33 billion, up 5.7% from $41.95 billion, operating income rose to $8.05 billion from $6.83 billion, and free cash flow reached $7.40 billion on $9.57 billion of operating cash flow. Balance sheet risk is low, with $12.93 billion of debt against $8.52 billion of cash and $52.77 billion of equity, so this is not a leverage-dependent equity story. But the valuation is asking investors to pay 28.8x earnings, 4.2x sales, and 20.1x EV/EBITDA for a company whose 5-year revenue CAGR is just 5.1% and whose normalized net income is mostly living in a $5.7-7.1 billion band if you exclude the obvious 2024 one-off that drove net income to $13.40 billion and a nonsensical 84.1% Q4 margin. At $185 billion of market cap, the market is already capitalizing Abbott as if it deserves a premium multiple closer to a cleaner medtech grower than to a diversified healthcare conglomerate.

What stands out to me is that the raw quarterly data says “steady but not accelerating.” Revenue moved from $10.38 billion in 2024 Q2 to $10.64 billion in Q3, $10.97 billion in Q4, $10.36 billion in 2025 Q1, then $11.14 billion, $11.37 billion, $11.46 billion, and finally $11.16 billion in 2026 Q1. That is respectable growth, but not the kind of slope that justifies a near-30x P/E on its own. Even the most recent year-over-year quarter, 2026 Q1, grew revenue 7.7% versus 2025 Q1, yet net income fell from $1.33 billion to $1.08 billion, taking margin from 12.8% down to 9.6%. That matters. If Abbott were demonstrating operating leverage from a richer devices mix, I would expect clearer margin expansion, not this kind of wobble. The annual numbers do show operating margin improving from 16.3% in 2024 to 18.2% in 2025, which is encouraging, but the quarterlies say that progress is not smooth enough to underwrite a premium multiple with confidence.

The simplest way to frame it is that Abbott is being valued on quality, resilience, and optionality more than on hard growth. Some of that is deserved. Gross margin at 56.4%, ROIC at 10.9%, and dividend yield at 2.3% all support the idea of a durable, high-quality franchise. Free cash flow of $7.40 billion gives the company room for dividends, buybacks, and bolt-ons. But quality can still be overpaid for. On 2025 net income of $6.52 billion, today’s market cap implies about a 2.5% earnings yield; on free cash flow, the yield is roughly 4.0%. For a mature healthcare company growing revenue mid-single digits, that is not compelling. If I normalize earnings power somewhere around $6.5-7.0 billion and apply a 22-24x multiple, I get an equity value more in the neighborhood of roughly $143-168 billion, or about $82-97 per share, not $107. The stock does not need bad execution to de-rate; it only needs continued “good, not great” results.

The strongest case against my read is that I may be underestimating mix shift and the value of consistency. 2025 was objectively a better operating year than 2024 on clean metrics: revenue up $2.38 billion, gross profit up $1.77 billion, operating income up $1.22 billion, and net income excluding the 2024 anomaly also clearly higher. If that trajectory continues, then 2026 earnings could plausibly move well above $7 billion and make today’s P/E look closer to the mid-20s on forward earnings, which is more defensible for a recession-resistant healthcare compounder. The insider tape also leans mildly supportive, with open-market purchases of 10,000 shares and 2,000 shares in late April and early May 2026 rather than a stream of sales. And because Abbott is diversified across devices, diagnostics, nutrition, and pharma, investors may rationally pay up for lower cyclicality and lower single-product risk than a pure-play device company. If the market is really valuing the business on durability plus balance-sheet strength, the premium can persist longer than a pure DCF would suggest.

What would change my mind is evidence that Abbott is actually converting its franchise quality into sustained double-digit earnings growth with cleaner margins. Specifically, I would want to see revenue moving into a durable $11.7-12.0 billion quarterly run-rate, net margins back above 14-15% consistently rather than dropping to 9.6% in a recent quarter, and annual free cash flow pushing toward $8.5-9.0 billion without balance-sheet stretch. If the next few quarters show 7-9% revenue growth accompanied by operating leverage, then the current premium multiple would look earned rather than aspirational. Until then, the stock looks like a classic excellent-company, expensive-stock setup.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-08-04 00:50:34
Verdict Overvalued at $107; fair value nearer $82–88 on 5% growth and 22–24× normalized earnings

The numbers describe a high-quality but thoroughly mature healthcare conglomerate whose growth has settled into a mid-single-digit grind while the multiple still prices a device-led re-acceleration that has not yet appeared in the consolidated P&L. Revenue moved from $41.95B in 2024 to $44.33B in 2025 (+5.7%), consistent with the 5.1% revenue CAGR; the trailing four quarters sit in a tight $10.4–11.5B band with no inflection. Reported 2025 net income of $6.52B (14.7% margin) is the clean figure to use—2024’s $13.40B was inflated by an obvious Q4 one-time item that produced an 84% quarterly net margin and is now rolling off, which is why recent earnings YoY prints at –51%. Operating margin held at 18.2% and free cash flow reached a solid $7.40B (FCF conversion >100% of NI), yet Q1 2026 net margin collapsed to 9.6% on $11.16B of revenue, the weakest print in the entire series and a reminder that mix and cost pressure remain live. At $107 the stock trades 28.8× that normalized earnings power, 4.2× sales and 20× EV/EBITDA—premiums that only make sense if FreeStyle Libre and structural heart are about to lift the entire enterprise growth rate well above 5%.

The balance sheet and cash generation are not the problem. Net debt is modest ($12.93B debt against $8.52B cash, D/E 0.25), ROIC is a respectable 10.9%, and the company converts earnings into cash with high fidelity. Dividend yield of 2.3% is covered several times over. Those attributes justify a quality multiple; they do not justify nearly 29× earnings for a 5% organic grower whose largest segments still include nutrition and mature diagnostics. The valuation synthesis fair-value range of roughly $76–86 is directionally correct: the market is paying a medical-device compounder multiple for what is still, on the numbers, a diversified mid-single-digit earner. The Q1 2026 margin step-down and the decelerating quarterly revenue trend only widen that gap.

The strongest counter-argument is that the consolidated 5% masks faster underlying device momentum—Libre Type-2 penetration and MitraClip-adjacent structural heart could still deliver the double-digit contribution growth the bull case requires, while nutrition and diagnostics provide ballast that pure-play device peers lack. FCF CAGR of 20.9% and net insider buying (including open-market purchases of 12,000 shares) lend credibility to management’s confidence, and the defensive narrative has historically supported multiple resilience even when growth is ordinary. A smart opponent would also note that 18% operating margins and 56% gross margins already embed pricing power, so further mix shift toward CGM and structural heart could expand earnings faster than revenue. I weigh these points as real but insufficient: they are already partially in the price, the recent margin compression runs against the mix-shift thesis, and history (Medtronic mid-2010s) shows that 28–30× on mid-single-digit growth is a setup for multiple compression once the growth story fails to accelerate.

I would reverse to neutral or better only if two consecutive quarters show organic growth re-accelerating through 8%+ with operating margins sustainably back above 16%, or if Libre and structural-heart disclosures demonstrate that those franchises now exceed 30% of sales and are still compounding above 15%. A drop in the forward multiple toward 22–23× without earnings deterioration would also reset the risk/reward.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 1.3; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.7 vs panel · self: 4.0
GPT gpt-5.4 1.0
overvalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -0.3 vs panel · self: 3.0
Grok grok-4.5 1.0
overvalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -0.3 vs panel · self: 3.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-04 01:08:11
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality - wait for a dip 7/10
Abbott is a legitimately high-quality compounder trading about 20% above deserved value - great business, wrong price.
The cruxWhether you get a chance to buy this quality franchise in the high-80s; at $107 you are paying full retail for a stalled-topline story.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from ABT's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionShare Count Shrinking
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+67
Strong
edge √Σ 126 · risk √Σ 44 · conf 8/10

Abbott runs at roughly $44B revenue with gross margin steady around 55-56% and operating margin recovering to 18.2% in 2025 from a 16.2% trough in 2023. Free cash flow is consistent at $6-8B annually ($7.4B in 2025), and earnings quality checks are clean: OCF/NI of 1.25x, negative accruals (-1.6% of assets), Beneish M of -2.52, and Altman Z of 5.03 in the safe zone. The 2024 net income spike to $13.4B versus $6.5B in 2025 looks like a one-time gain (likely divestiture-related) rather than an ongoing run-rate, and cash generation did not follow it, which is actually a mark of honest reporting rather than manipulation. Capital allocation is shareholder-friendly: diluted share count is quietly shrinking (-0.6% CAGR), SBC is a modest 1.5% of revenue, and buybacks run at 287% of SBC - a genuine net repurchaser. Balance sheet carries net debt of about $4B against $8.9B cash, which is a constraint but trivial relative to $7B+ annual FCF. Insider tape shows real open-market purchases from Starks ($926K) and Stratton ($174K) in 2026, plus a discretionary buy from Moreland - directional signals from people with information. Nothing in the mechanical forensics flags; the business looks solidly healthy across every dimension examined.

Strengths 5
m70
Clean earnings quality across all mechanical checks
OCF/NI 1.25x, accruals -1.6% of assets, Beneish M -2.52, Altman Z 5.03. No red flags; cash conversion consistently exceeds reported earnings.
m65
Durable FCF generation
FCF of $8.65B, $7.80B, $5.06B, $6.35B, $7.40B across 2021-2025 - always positive, always material relative to net income.
m55
Per-share discipline
Diluted shares down from 1.79B to 1.75B; buybacks 287% of SBC; SBC only 1.5% of revenue. Rare combination of restraint and returns.
m45
Operating margin recovery
OpM rebuilt from 16.2% (2023) to 18.2% (2025) as COVID-era diagnostics roll-off normalized; gross margin stable at 55-56% throughout.
m40
Real open-market insider buying
Starks bought $926K and Stratton $174K in 2026 open-market P transactions - directional signal, not tax-withholding noise.
Concerns 3
m30
Revenue essentially flat over five years
$43.08B (2021) to $44.33B (2025) is minimal growth once you strip pandemic diagnostics tailwind and reset - durable but not expanding.
m25
Net debt position
Net cash -$3.99B; cash is 4.8% of market cap. Not a cushion, and any large M&A would require the debt markets.
m20
2024 net income anomaly
Net income of $13.40B in 2024 vs $6.52B in 2025 - looks like non-recurring gain; investors need to normalize when reading GAAP earnings.
This is a solid, well-run mature earner - the kind of business that shows up clean in every forensic sieve. FCF is real, earnings quality is high, dilution is not a problem, and insiders are net buyers with actual open-market cash. The soft spots are unglamorous but real: growth has stalled at roughly $44B, the balance sheet is levered rather than fortified, and I would want to understand the 2024 GAAP anomaly before treating any single-year number as run-rate. As a business, it sits comfortably in the healthy tier but does not reach the robust-plus rungs that demand either fortress liquidity or visible compounding growth.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Nature of the 2024 net income spike to $13.4B - divestiture gain, tax benefit, or accounting item?
  • Segment mix and any customer or product concentration in Medical Devices (Libre, structural heart)
  • Debt maturity schedule and any near-term refinancing needs given net debt position
  • Pending litigation exposure (NEC/preemie formula cases) and any reserve movements
  • Recurring vs one-time components of the 2025 operating margin recovery
Valuation / Mispricing
-66
Rich
edge √Σ 20 · risk √Σ 100 · conf 7/10
Price $107.12 vs signal-adjusted deserved value ~$86 - roughly 20% overvalued, zero margin of safety. attractive below $88.00

The composite fair value lands at $76.48 and the signal-adjusted FV at $85.79, both meaningfully below the $107.12 price - implying about -20% downside to deserved value. The methods triangulate reasonably: DCF at $73.94 and EPV floor at $47.95 both say the cash-earnings power alone does not justify today's tape, while the anchored-PE of $110.08 essentially just re-prints the current multiple and should be treated as a market-comp reading, not independent evidence of value. Strip that out and the underlying earnings-power case sits in the mid-70s to mid-80s. Even generously weighting the quality premium (durable diagnostics franchise, clean earnings, disciplined capital), the deserved price is somewhere in the high-80s to low-90s, not $107.

Cheap signals 1
m20
Quality premium is real
Clean earnings, high FCF conversion, and net insider buying justify SOME premium to raw DCF - which is why deserved value is nearer $86 than $74, but still not $107.
Rich / priced-in 3
m70
Price ~20% above signal-adjusted FV
$107.12 vs $85.79 signal-adjusted FV and $76.48 composite - the gap is wide and consistent across the cash-flow-based methods.
m55
DCF and EPV both point lower
DCF $73.94 and EPV floor $47.95 imply the earnings-power case tops out in the mid-70s; only the market-anchored PE ($110) supports today's price, and that is circular.
m45
Defensive multiple expansion priced in
Growth has stalled near $44B revenue yet the multiple sits at a premium - the price already pays for the 'defensive compounder' narrative the bull case describes.
This is a fine business at a full price. The composite and signal-adjusted fair values sit at $76-$86, and I do not see a credible path to justifying $107 without leaning on the anchored-PE method, which just tells me what the market is already paying. I would want it in the high-80s - call it $88 or lower - before the risk-reward tilts my way. At today's price I am paying for quality I already know about, with no discount for the stalled top line or the litigation and biosimilar overhangs.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Organic growth trajectory ex-COVID diagnostics - is core med-device growth accelerating or decelerating
  • 2024 free cash flow guidance vs the DCF assumptions
  • Any resolution or reserve on infant formula litigation that would change the risk-adjusted discount
  • Segment margin trends in diagnostics as COVID tailwind fully rolls off
General Sentiment
+0
tail √Σ 0 · head √Σ 0
Tailwinds 0

None surfaced.

Headwinds 0

None surfaced.

The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
not run

This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.

The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
Lower -7.6% v0.6.0 View full prediction →

When we made this prediction on Aug 4, 2026, ABT was $107.12. We expect it to be $99.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $88.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 4, 2026.

Price when predicted$107.12
Our estimate for Feb 2027$99.00-7.6%
Great value below$88.00
Price history shown (6 Months)

Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.562 · 9b2927c4 · 2026-08-22 16:52:06