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FRESH Analysis Report
Jun 20, 2026
7 days ago · 100% complete · +8 refreshed

Adeia Inc.

ADEA NASDAQ Categories PDF
Technology · Software - Application
San Jose, CA 95134, United States IPO 2003 adeia.com Updated Jun 20, 2:01am
Price
$31.81
Market Cap
$3.5B
Employees
150
Beta
0.98
Avg Volume
1,892,166
CEO
Paul E. Davis
Business Description

Adeia Inc. is an international enterprise focused on intellectual property licensing within the consumer and entertainment sectors. Operating globally, the company licenses its proprietary innovations, marketed under the Adeia brand, to various entities across the entertainment landscape. Its extensive patent portfolio is adopted by a wide range of partners, including: Multichannel video programming distributors (MVPDs): This encompasses traditional cable, satellite, and telecommunications television providers that distribute linear content over networks, as well as those delivering aggregated and streamed linear content via broadband. Over-the-top (OTT) and new media companies: Such as subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) services, social networking platforms, and other emerging digital media providers. Consumer electronics manufacturers: For devices like smart televisions, streaming media players, video game consoles, mobile devices, digital video recorders (DVRs), and other internet-connected media equipment. Semiconductor companies: Covering components like sensors, radio frequency (RF) elements, memory, and logic devices. Adeia Inc. was established in 2019 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

Business History
Generated: Jun 20, 2026 3:02am
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 20, 2026 3:00am (7d ago)
$31.81
+0.43 (+1.37%)
Day Range
$29.89 – $32.34
52-Week Range
$11.61 – $34.34
50-Day MA
$29.75
200-Day MA
$20.81
Volume
2,376,323.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $20.00
Consensus $34.50
High $43.00
(4 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 110,294,000.00
Float 107,707,361.00
Free Float 97.7%
High free float — 97.7% of shares trade freely, ~2.3% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 20, 2026 3:03am (7d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 20, 2026 3:03am (7d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 20, 2026 3:02am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
28.54
Stock Price: $31.81
EPS (Diluted): 1.02
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
3.92
Stock Price: $31.81
Total Equity: $480.54M
Shares: 112,954,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
13.74
Market Cap: $3.51B
Total Debt: $427.19M
Cash: $73.14M
EBITDA: $239.86M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$2.2B
Market Cap: $3.51B
Total Debt: $427.19M
Cash: $73.14M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
87.2%
Gross Profit: $386.77M
Revenue: $443.39M
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
47.2%
Operating Income: $209.07M
Revenue: $443.39M
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
25.1%
Net Income: $111.08M
Revenue: $443.39M
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
27.7%
Net Income: $111.08M
Total Equity: $480.54M
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
17.8%
Operating Income: $209.07M
Tax Rate: 21.2%
Equity: $480.54M
Total Debt: $427.19M
Cash: $73.14M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
3.81
Current Assets: $303.96M
Current Liabilities: $79.78M
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.89
Short-Term Debt: $20.98M
Long-Term Debt: $406.21M
Total Debt: $427.19M
Total Equity: $480.54M
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$3.93
Revenue: $443.39M
Shares: 112,954,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$4.25
Total Equity: $480.54M
Shares: 112,954,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$1.32
Operating CF: $158.09M
CapEx: -$8.76M
Shares: 112,954,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
1.2%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $31.81
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
—
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $111.08M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 20, 2026 3:02am
Compares ADEA against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · three lenses
Three separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-06-20 03:08:09
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality name — starter position, scale on weakness 6/10
Quality 51 says this is a legitimately good licensing engine, but Value 16 says it's only modestly cheap — fair stance is a small starter here, with real size reserved for sub-$27.
The cruxWhether the next big licensing renewal cycle prints — that single variable determines both the FCF trajectory and whether the modest discount becomes a fat pitch or evaporates.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from ADEA's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionStable Share Count
Earnings QualityGood Earnings Quality
The three lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+51
Solid
edge √Σ 143 · risk √Σ 92 · conf 7/10

Adeia is the IP-licensing remainco after the Xperi spin (revenue collapse from $877.7M in 2021 to ~$388.8M in 2023 reflects the separation, not operational decay). What's left is a structurally high-margin licensing engine: gross margin has expanded from 75.5% (2023) to 87.2% (2025) and operating margin from 37.4% to 47.2%, with revenue re-accelerating to $443.4M in 2025 and net income reaching $111.1M. FCF has been consistently positive in the $146–190M range every year, funding a buyback that more than offsets the 7.8%-of-revenue SBC (buyback/SBC = 116%) and holding diluted share count essentially flat at ~113M since 2023.

The quality blemish is the balance sheet and cash conversion. Net cash is -$290.5M (only $136.7M liquid against meaningful debt), so the balance sheet is a constraint rather than a cushion — though $149M annual FCF services it comfortably. OCF/NI of 0.43x and accruals at -15.4% of assets are unusual; for a licensing business this likely reflects timing of large lump-sum license payments and deferred revenue mechanics rather than aggressive accrual-based earnings (Beneish M -2.56 and Altman Z 5.24 both clean). Insider activity is neutral-to-slightly-negative — one $3.2M sale by Tanji, no open-market buys, and the rest is routine award/tax-withholding flow.

Net read: a genuinely high-quality IP cash-flow business with widening margins and disciplined share count, held back from 'Strong' by leverage and the gap between reported earnings and operating cash.

Strengths 5
m78
Elite and expanding margins
Gross margin 75.5% → 87.2% and operating margin 37.4% → 47.2% from 2023 to 2025 — characteristic of a scaled IP-licensing model with high incremental drop-through.
m72
Consistent, sizable FCF
FCF of $146M, $190M, and $149M in 2023–2025 against a $443M revenue base — roughly 34% FCF margin, and self-funding without needing capital markets.
m65
Dilution under control
Diluted shares essentially flat at ~113M since 2023; buyback consumes 116% of SBC despite SBC running at 7.8% of revenue, so per-share value is being protected.
m55
Revenue re-acceleration post-spin
Revenue grew from $376M (2024) to $443.4M (2025), +18%, with net income up from $64.6M to $111.1M — operating leverage is real, not just margin-mix.
m45
Clean forensic signals
Beneish M -2.56 (no manipulation flag), Altman Z 5.24 (safe zone) — no earnings-quality red flags despite the cash/income gap.
Concerns 4
m60
Net debt position
Net cash of -$290.5M with only $136.7M liquid; balance sheet is a constraint. Manageable given FCF, but leaves less optionality and makes the business sensitive to any licensing cycle softness.
m55
OCF lags reported net income
OCF/NI of 0.43x and accruals at -15.4% of assets — likely deferred revenue / timing of lump-sum licensing collections, but it means reported earnings overstate near-term cash earning power and warrants checking deferred revenue and unbilled receivables.
m35
Customer/contract concentration risk implied
Licensing businesses typically have a handful of large counterparties driving renewals; not visible in the derived data but a structural quality risk for this model.
m25
Mildly negative insider tape
One $3.2M sale (Tanji) and zero open-market buys in the last 12 months — not alarming, but no insider conviction signal either.
This is a legitimately good business — IP licensing with 87% gross margins, 47% operating margins, ~$150M of recurring FCF on $443M of revenue, and a share count they're actually managing. The post-spin trajectory shows the model working: margins expanding every year, revenue re-accelerating in 2025, no dilution drag. Two things keep me from calling it Strong: the net debt position means the balance sheet isn't a fortress, and OCF running at 43% of net income is a real gap I'd want explained by deferred revenue mechanics before fully trusting the earnings. The forensic flags (Beneish, Altman, accruals direction) all check out, so I lean toward this being timing of licensing receipts rather than manipulation. Solid, with a credible path to Strong if leverage comes down and cash conversion normalizes.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • Customer concentration in 10-K — top 3-5 licensees as % of revenue and renewal timing
  • Deferred revenue / contract liability balances to confirm OCF/NI gap is timing, not quality
  • Debt maturity schedule and interest coverage — terms of the borrowings creating the $290M net debt
  • Patent portfolio age and key litigation/renewal exposures (Samsung, Disney, etc.)
  • Whether the 2025 revenue jump reflects recurring rate-card licenses or one-time settlements/catch-up payments
  • SBC composition vs. buyback cadence — is the 116% offset sustainable or a one-year artifact
Valuation / Mispricing
+16
Modestly Cheap
edge √Σ 79 · risk √Σ 63 · conf 6/10
Price $31.81 vs deserved ~$36-$38 — roughly 10-15% discount, real but not a fat pitch. attractive below $27.00

Adeia generates ~$150M of recurring FCF on $443M of revenue with 47% operating margins. At a $3.51B market cap that's ~23x FCF on the surface, but stripping reported financials, the licensing model with 87% gross margins and lumpy multi-year deal renewals deserves a mid-teens FCF multiple at minimum — call it 15-18x, implying $2.25B-$2.7B equity value, or roughly $20-$24 per share before any growth credit. Layer in 2025 revenue re-acceleration, the structural moat in video IP, and the post-spin margin trajectory, and a fairer band is $34-$42, putting today's $31.81 modestly below the midpoint.

Cheap signals 3
m55
Reasonable FCF multiple for a licensing model
~$150M FCF on $3.5B cap = ~23x, but the underlying recurring nature of patent licensing typically supports 18-22x, leaving room.
m45
Margin expansion + 2025 revenue re-acceleration not fully priced
Operating margins expanding annually post-spin with revenue inflecting up suggests the deserved multiple should be rising, not the discount the market is applying.
m35
Quiet-quality setup
Low coverage, post-spin orphan with elite unit economics — classic setup for modest mispricing, though not deep value.
Rich / priced-in 3
m50
Secular bear case warrants real discount
MVPD decline and streamer in-housing of IP are legitimate threats to the royalty stream; some discount to a clean royalty multiple is deserved, not a bug.
m30
Net debt and low cash conversion
Net debt position and FCF lagging reported earnings means the equity isn't getting a clean balance-sheet credit — trims deserved value.
m25
Lumpy renewal risk
Patent licensing revenue cliffs at renewal cycles; any major deal walking would compress the multiple fast.
Modestly cheap, not screaming. I get a deserved value in the mid-$30s on a 15-18x FCF multiple appropriate for a licensing model with real secular question marks, against a $31.81 price — that's ~10-15% of margin of safety, fine but not a fat pitch. I'd want it closer to $27 to lean in hard; in the meantime it's a hold-quality setup where the upside comes from renewals printing and margin expansion continuing, not from multiple re-rating. The quality grade earns it the right to trade at fair value; it doesn't make it cheap.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • 2025 guidance and detail on major license renewals (Disney, Comcast, Netflix-tier deals)
  • Cash conversion gap — why FCF trails GAAP earnings, and whether it's working capital or structural
  • Net debt trajectory and any buyback authorization use
  • Disclosure on customer concentration and renewal pipeline for 2025-2026
General Sentiment
-1
Balanced
tail √Σ 57 · head √Σ 58 · conf 6/10

ADEA sits in a low-noise sentiment zone. The market regime is neutral with VIX modestly elevated, and with a beta near 1.0 the tape neither punishes nor rewards this name in any outsized way. The active narrative is quiet-quality with minimal intensity and low cult coefficient, meaning there is no story-momentum lifting the multiple and no euphoric crowd to deflate; the stock is judged on cash flows from licensing, not on a thematic bid. Patent-licensing is also largely insulated from rate sensitivity in the way high-duration growth names are not. Analyst tone is uniformly constructive (5 Buys, 0 Holds/Sells) with a target consensus 28% above spot, yet there have been zero target revisions this month - a quiet, stale endorsement rather than a strengthening narrative. That divergence (positive ratings, no fresh upgrades, low narrative intensity) is classic Balanced. The CEO-departure shock from May still sits in the background as the main idiosyncratic headwind, partially offset by genuinely strong recent price momentum (+17.9% recent vs 6.8% long-term).

Tailwinds 3
m40
Unanimous analyst Buy with 28% upside target
5-for-5 Buy ratings and a $39.33 consensus target provide a quiet floor of institutional endorsement, though zero revisions this month means the support is stale, not strengthening.
m35
Strong recent price momentum
Recent 17.9% pace well above 6.8% long-term CAGR shows the tape is actually rewarding this name despite the CEO news - quiet accumulation rather than narrative-driven chase.
m20
Low narrative intensity cuts both ways
With minimal cult and no premium baked in, there is little narrative air to let out; sentiment downside is structurally limited even if the bear story gains traction.
Headwinds 3
m45
CEO departure overhang
Paul Davis's announced exit by Q4 2026 drove a 17% one-day drop despite a beat; leadership uncertainty continues to cap multiple expansion until a successor is named.
m30
Cord-cutting narrative drag
The bear story - patent middleman squeezed between shrinking MVPDs and streamers internalizing IP - is a slow, persistent sentiment weight on any licensing-pure name, even if fundamentals have not confirmed it.
m20
Neutral tape, slightly elevated VIX
With beta ~1.0 and a market off 1.8% from highs, the macro tape offers no lift; a small-cap licensing name gets no sponsorship in a cautious regime.
Net read: roughly balanced with a faint negative tilt. The CEO overhang and slow-burn cord-cutting bear story are real but quiet headwinds; the unanimous Buy book, strong recent momentum, and low narrative intensity offset them. With beta near 1.0 and a neutral tape, there is no macro force amplifying anything here - this is a name moving on its own idiosyncratic flow, and right now that flow is muted. I would not expect sentiment alone to drive a big move in either direction until the CEO succession is resolved.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • CEO succession announcement and market reaction
  • Any analyst target revisions (up or down) breaking the current stasis
  • New major streamer/OTT licensing deal headlines that would harden the bull narrative
  • Sector rotation into or out of small-cap IP/licensing names
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
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Three lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), and General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 20, 2026 3:05:33 am

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 20, 2026 3:03am (7d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $877.7M $438.9M $388.8M $376.0M $443.4M
Cost of Revenue $354.0M $114.2M $95.3M $72.8M $56.6M
Gross Profit $523.7M $324.7M $293.5M $303.2M $386.8M
Operating Expenses $498.3M $163.1M $148.0M $161.0M $177.7M
Operating Income $25.5M $161.6M $145.6M $142.3M $209.1M
Net Income -$55.5M -$295.9M $67.4M $64.6M $111.1M
EBITDA $235.6M $269.3M $237.8M $206.5M $239.9M
EPS $-0.53 $-2.84 $0.63 $0.59 $1.02
EPS (Diluted) — — — — —
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 20, 2026 3:00am (7d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $80.4M $114.6M $54.6M $78.8M $73.1M
Total Current Assets $519.5M $258.7M $205.8M $258.4M $304.0M
Total Assets $2.5B $1.2B $1.1B $1.1B $1.0B
Current Liabilities $189.7M $166.7M $102.0M $73.1M $79.8M
Long-Term Debt $729.4M $619.6M $519.6M $454.4M $406.2M
Total Liabilities $1.1B $909.1M $748.9M $701.4M $558.8M
Total Equity $1.3B $301.4M $356.6M $396.6M $480.5M
Retained Earnings $187.8M -$123.7M -$56.3M $2.8M $92.1M
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 20, 2026 3:01am (7d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $234.8M $183.0M $152.8M $212.5M $158.1M
Capital Expenditure -$14.1M -$12.9M -$6.3M -$22.3M -$8.8M
Free Cash Flow $220.7M $170.2M $146.4M $190.2M $149.3M
Acquisitions (net) -$17.4M -$50.5M $0 $0 $0
Debt Repayment — — — — —
Dividends Paid — — — — —
Stock Buybacks -$100.8M -$33.2M -$11.3M -$31.5M -$43.8M
Net Change in Cash $30.9M -$86.6M -$60.0M $24.3M -$5.7M
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 20, 2026 3:00am (7d ago)
Metric 2024 2025 2026 2027
Revenue $371.1M
$367.5M – $373.8M
 $429.2M
$426.8M – $431.6M
 $417.1M
$415.5M – $418.6M
 $447.5M
$442.3M – $452.7M
EBITDA $191.8M
$189.9M – $193.2M
 $221.8M
$220.6M – $223.0M
 $215.5M
$214.7M – $216.3M
 $231.3M
$228.6M – $234.0M
Net Income $137.6M
$136.1M – $139.1M
 $162.3M
$160.7M – $163.9M
 $159.9M
$157.1M – $162.7M
 $174.3M
$165.3M – $183.4M
EPS — — — —
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 20, 2026 3:03am (7d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth -50.0% -11.4% -3.3% +17.9%
Gross Profit Growth -38.0% -9.6% +3.3% +27.5%
Operating Income Growth +535.1% -10.0% -2.3% +47.0%
Net Income Growth -433.5% +122.8% -4.1% +71.9%
EBITDA Growth +14.3% -11.7% -13.2% +16.2%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 20, 2026 3:03am (7d ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-06-01 Davis Paul E. F-InKind 52,661.00 $28.61 $1.5M
2026-05-13 Tanji Kevin S-Sale 99,342.00 $31.75 $3.2M
2026-05-07 VIJ SANDEEP A-Award 6,930.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-07 Molina V Sue A-Award 6,930.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-07 MOLONEY DANIEL M A-Award 6,930.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-07 Rymer Adam A-Award 6,930.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-07 Turner-Brim Phyllis A-Award 6,930.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-07 OCONNOR MAYES TONIA A-Award 6,930.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-01 Kokes Mark A-Award 76,820.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-01 Kokes Mark A-Award 112,961.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-01 Kokes Mark F-InKind 57,473.00 $20.69 $1.2M
2026-03-01 Kokes Mark F-InKind 28,007.00 $20.69 $579,465
2026-03-01 Jones Keith A A-Award 301,535.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-01 Jones Keith A A-Award 95,260.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-01 Jones Keith A F-InKind 153,414.00 $20.69 $3.2M
2026-03-01 Jones Keith A F-InKind 30,569.00 $20.69 $632,473
2026-03-01 Tanji Kevin A-Award 76,820.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-01 Tanji Kevin A-Award 112,961.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-01 Tanji Kevin F-InKind 57,473.00 $20.69 $1.2M
2026-03-01 Tanji Kevin F-InKind 32,614.00 $20.69 $674,784
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 14, 2026 12:21pm (12d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-05-26 $0.05 2026-05-04 2026-05-26 2026-06-15
2026-03-16 $0.05 2026-02-23 2026-03-16 2026-03-30
2025-11-24 $0.05 2025-11-03 2025-11-24 2025-12-15
2025-08-26 $0.05 2025-08-01 2025-08-26 2025-09-16
2025-05-27 $0.05 2025-05-05 2025-05-27 2025-06-17
2025-03-10 $0.05 2025-02-18 2025-03-10 2025-03-31
2024-11-27 $0.05 2024-10-23 2024-11-27 2024-12-18
2024-08-27 $0.05 2024-07-24 2024-08-27 2024-09-17
2024-05-24 $0.05 2024-04-25 2024-05-28 2024-06-18
2024-03-11 $0.05 2024-02-08 2024-03-12 2024-03-26
2023-11-24 $0.05 2023-11-06 2023-11-27 2023-12-18
2023-08-25 $0.05 2023-08-07 2023-08-28 2023-09-18
2023-05-26 $0.05 2023-05-04 2023-05-30 2023-06-20
2023-03-14 $0.05 2023-02-22 2023-03-15 2023-03-29
2022-11-29 $0.05 2022-11-09 2022-11-30 2022-12-21
2022-08-26 $0.05 2022-07-29 2022-08-29 2022-09-19
2022-05-27 $0.05 2022-04-29 2022-05-31 2022-06-21
2022-03-15 $0.05 2022-02-03 2022-03-16 2022-03-30
2021-11-26 $0.05 2021-10-29 2021-11-29 2021-12-20
2021-08-23 $0.05 2021-08-03 2021-08-24 2021-09-14
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for ADEA — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-20 03:06:10
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict Modestly overvalued on normalized run-rate — fair value $25-28 versus $31.81; Q4'25 was a settlement spike, not a new baseline; wait for Q2-Q3'26 prints to confirm or refute the re-rating.

The raw quarterly tape tells a story the synthesis layer is glossing over: Adeia's revenue is *lumpy as hell*, not "accelerating." Look at the cadence — Q4'24 $119M, Q1-Q3'25 averaging $87M, then Q4'25 explodes to $182.6M (margin 40.4%), then Q1'26 drops back to $104.8M. That Q4'25 print is almost certainly a catch-up payment or settlement from a renewed license — it's 2x the run-rate of the surrounding quarters. The "17.9% recent revenue YoY" and "71.9% earnings YoY" momentum signals are artifacts of that single quarter. Strip Q4'25 and you have a business doing ~$90-105M/quarter, or ~$380-400M annualized — essentially flat with 2023 ($388.8M) and 2024 ($376.0M). The Market Forces module nailed this; the Synthesis and Momentum modules got captured by the optical strength.

That said, the bear "managed decline" framing also needs scrutiny. Yes, 2021 revenue was $877M, but that was pre-Xperi spin (October 2022) — comparing post-spin Adeia to pre-spin TiVo/Xperi consolidated revenue is apples-to-orangutans. The relevant baseline is the $376-443M range since 2023, which is genuinely stable, not declining. Gross margin at 87% and operating margin at 47% are real, FCF of $149M on a $3.51B market cap is a ~4.3% FCF yield, and the business converts ~95% of operating income to free cash. At 28.5x TTM P/E but ~13.7x EV/EBITDA and ~23x FCF, the multiple is reasonable *if* you believe the run-rate is $400M+ with episodic settlement upside, and punitive if you think the patent base is eroding.

The contrarian read both ways: bull contrarian says the Q4'25 settlement proves the portfolio still has teeth — every few quarters a major MVPD/streamer caves and writes a nine-figure check, and at $3.5B EV you're paying a fair price for that optionality plus a 1.16% dividend. Bear contrarian points to the May 2026 insider sale of 99,342 shares against a backdrop of pure award grants — the only open-market action is a sell, right after the stock allegedly ran 174% off lows. That's not a confidence vote. Also worth flagging: the balance sheet tile is missing total debt and equity entirely, which is a real data gap for an IP-licensing entity where leverage matters for the FCF-to-equity bridge. The "ROE 27.7%" and "ROIC 17.8%" can't be independently verified without those line items, and the anomaly flags correctly note these are TTM-derived and inflated by the Q4'25 windfall.

I dissent partially from the "High Conviction Required" synthesis — that's a non-verdict. The honest read: this is a $380-400M run-rate royalty business with $140-150M of normalized FCF, growing low-single-digits with episodic settlement spikes. Slap an 18-20x FCF multiple on $145M normalized FCF and you get $2.6-2.9B equity value, or roughly $24-26/share. The current $31.81 embeds the assumption that Q4'25-style settlements recur regularly enough to lift run-rate FCF closer to $180-200M, which would justify $32-36. That's possible but unproven — one print doesn't make a trend, and the Q1'26 reversion to $104.8M revenue is exactly what you'd expect if Q4 was a one-off. Insider selling into strength, missing balance sheet data, and the structural cord-cutting overhang on the legacy MVPD royalty base all argue for waiting. I'd want to see two consecutive quarters above $120M before paying $32. Until then, this is a $25-28 stock dressed up by a lucky quarter.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-20 03:06:17
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I agree with Opus — overvalued at $31.81; I'd peg fair value at $25-28, recognizing revenue volatility and dependency on episodic settlements, with an eye on future quarters for confirmation of any sustainable uptick.

Upon reviewing the raw data for Adeia Inc., a few distinct patterns and anomalies catch my attention. The dramatic fluctuation in quarterly revenue, particularly the spike in Q4 2025 to $182.6M followed by a sharp drop to $104.8M in Q1 2026, indicates revenue volatility likely tied to one-off settlements or licensing agreements rather than consistent operational growth. The company's gross margins remain impressively high, at 87%, with operating margins also robust at 47.15%, suggesting strong profitability within its existing revenue streams. However, the lack of comprehensive balance sheet data, particularly total debt and equity, raises concerns about potential leverage, which is crucial for understanding the sustainability of its free cash flow yield, currently at approximately 4.3%.

I find myself largely in agreement with Claude Opus's assessment on several fronts. He correctly identifies the Q4 2025 revenue as an anomaly, likely due to a settlement, and not indicative of a new revenue baseline. His assertion that Adeia's recent revenue momentum is artificially inflated by this single quarter is valid, supported by the flat revenue trend when excluding Q4 2025. I concur that comparing post-spin Adeia figures to pre-spin TiVo/Xperi numbers is misleading, and the stable revenue in the $376-443M range post-2023 is more relevant. Additionally, Opus's valuation approach, considering a normalized free cash flow to equity value calculation, aligns with my analysis that the current market price anticipates more frequent high-value settlements than have been consistently demonstrated.

However, I diverge from Opus's narrative in a few areas. While he suggests that insider selling post-price surge undermines confidence, I believe this alone isn't a definitive negative signal without broader context on insider trading patterns or motivations. Furthermore, while Opus dismisses the "High Conviction Required" synthesis, I see merit in the caution, given Adeia's dependency on episodic settlements and the inherent risks of technological obsolescence in its licensing domain. The company's ability to transition its patent portfolio successfully into emerging technology sectors remains unproven and critical to its long-term valuation.

A careful skeptic might argue that both Opus and I are overly focused on short-term revenue fluctuations and insider actions without sufficiently accounting for potential strategic shifts or new technology licensing opportunities that could materially change Adeia's growth trajectory. They might also question our reliance on traditional valuation multiples in an industry where intangible asset value and strategic licensing deals can dramatically alter financial outcomes.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.352 · d1100787 · 2026-06-26 11:39:30