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FRESH Analysis Report
Jun 20, 2026
7 days ago · 96% complete · +6 refreshed

Autoliv, Inc.

ALV NYSE Categories PDF
Consumer Cyclical · Auto - Parts
Stockholm, 111 64, Sweden IPO 1997 autoliv.com Updated Jun 20, 3:00am
Price
$118.24
Market Cap
$8.9B
Employees
59,310
Beta
1.35
Avg Volume
810,715
CEO
Mikael Bratt
Business Description

Autoliv, Inc., operating through its global subsidiaries, specializes in the development, production, and supply of passive safety equipment for the automotive sector. The company's market presence spans Europe, the Americas, China, Japan, and other parts of Asia. Its extensive range of passive safety offerings includes components and modules for frontal and side-impact airbag systems, seatbelts, steering wheels, inflator technologies, and battery cut-off switches. Additionally, Autoliv provides advanced anti-whiplash and pedestrian protection systems, alongside connected safety services and solutions tailored for riders of powered two-wheelers. The firm primarily caters to automobile manufacturers. Autoliv, Inc. was established in 1953 and its corporate headquarters are located in Stockholm, Sweden.

Business History
Generated: Jun 20, 2026 3:02am
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 20, 2026 3:00am (7d ago)
$118.24
+1.92 (+1.65%)
Day Range
$116.15 – $118.44
52-Week Range
$99.16 – $132.17
50-Day MA
$120.20
200-Day MA
$119.46
Volume
590,616.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $116.00
Consensus $129.86
High $143.00
(55 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 74,863,300.00
Float 74,595,888.00
Free Float 99.6%
High free float — 99.6% of shares trade freely, ~0.4% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 20, 2026 3:05am (7d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 20, 2026 3:05am (7d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 20, 2026 3:01am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
12.46
Stock Price: $118.24
EPS (Diluted): 9.60
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
3.54
Stock Price: $118.24
Total Equity: $2.57B
Shares: 76,900,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
7.26
Market Cap: $8.85B
Total Debt: $2.28B
Cash: $604.00M
EBITDA: $1.50B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$10.9B
Market Cap: $8.85B
Total Debt: $2.28B
Cash: $604.00M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
19.2%
Gross Profit: $2.07B
Revenue: $10.82B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
10.1%
Operating Income: $1.09B
Revenue: $10.82B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
6.8%
Net Income: $735.00M
Revenue: $10.82B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
27.8%
Net Income: $735.00M
Total Equity: $2.57B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
15.5%
Operating Income: $1.09B
Tax Rate: 25.4%
Equity: $2.57B
Total Debt: $2.28B
Cash: $604.00M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.05
Current Assets: $4.10B
Current Liabilities: $3.92B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.88
Short-Term Debt: $419.00M
Long-Term Debt: $1.86B
Total Debt: $2.28B
Total Equity: $2.57B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$140.64
Revenue: $10.82B
Shares: 76,900,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$33.45
Total Equity: $2.57B
Shares: 76,900,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$9.30
Operating CF: $1.16B
CapEx: -$441.00M
Shares: 76,900,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
2.6%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $118.24
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
—
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $735.00M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 20, 2026 3:01am
Compares ALV against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · three lenses
Three separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-06-20 03:08:01
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Pass at this price — revisit in mid-$80s 7/10
Autoliv is a decent cyclical priced like a defensive compounder — at $118 there's no margin of safety, so I wait.
The cruxWhether you credit the anchored-PE multiple ($169) or the cash-flow anchors (DCF $66 / EPV $79) — and on a cyclical auto supplier, cash flow wins.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from ALV's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionShare Count Shrinking
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The three lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
—
not run

This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.

Valuation / Mispricing
-78
Rich
edge √Σ 39 · risk √Σ 117 · conf 7/10
Price $118 vs deserved ~$85-95 → trading ~25% above midpoint fair value, negative margin of safety. attractive below $85.00

The e2e composite pegs fair value at $95.18 (signal-adjusted $93.63) against a $118.24 price — roughly a 21-25% overshoot. The DCF anchor at $66 and EPV floor at $79 both flag the stock as expensive on cash-flow fundamentals; only the anchored-PE method at $169 supports the current price, and that method is essentially extrapolating peer/historical multiples onto a cyclical auto supplier — I'd discount it heavily. Splitting the difference between DCF ($66) and EPV ($79) gives a defensible deserved value in the $75-95 range, with the high end requiring you to credit Autoliv's oligopoly position in passive safety.

The bull case (content-per-vehicle growth, EV/ADAS tailwinds) is plausible but already embedded in the price — to justify $118 you need sustained margin expansion and above-trend volume growth in a sector that's structurally low-margin and exposed to OEM pricing pressure. Earnings quality is high (no haircut needed), which is the one thing keeping this from being a clear 'Overvalued' call. Net: this is a decent-quality cyclical priced as a defensive compounder. Fairly to richly valued — not a short, but not a buy here.

Cheap signals 2
m30
Anchored-PE supports $169 if multiple holds
On a peer/historical PE basis the stock screens at $169, which tempers the bear case — but multiple-based methods can overshoot for cyclicals at peak earnings.
m25
High earnings quality — no haircut
Earnings-quality signal is clean (score 2), so the deserved value doesn't need a discount for accruals/dilution concerns.
Rich / priced-in 4
m70
Price ~25% above composite FV
$118.24 vs composite FV $95.18 and signal-adjusted $93.63 implies -21% upside; the e2e synthesis itself labels this 'Fully Priced.'
m65
DCF says $66 — price is 79% above intrinsic cash-flow value
The DCF anchor at $66.06 suggests the market is pricing in materially better FCF trajectory than a base-case discounted model supports for a cyclical auto supplier.
m55
EPV floor at $79 — no downside cushion
Earnings-power value of $79.21 means current owners are paying ~50% above the no-growth value of the business; downside if cycle rolls is meaningful.
m40
Priced for ADAS/content-per-vehicle upside that may not materialize evenly
Bull case requires EV-driven content growth and sustained pricing — but EV simplification and Chinese safety-systems competition are real offsets per the bear narrative.
I can't get to a buy at $118. The DCF and EPV both sit in the $66-79 range and the composite lands at $95 — paying $118 means underwriting a margin and growth path that's plausible but already fully credited. I'd want this in the mid-$80s before the gap is wide enough to compensate for cyclical risk and OEM pricing pressure. It's a decent business at a stretched price, not a mispricing in my favor.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • FY guidance on organic growth and operating margin — is mgmt guiding to the margin expansion the price implies?
  • Content-per-vehicle disclosure and order book mix on EV/ADAS programs
  • Capital return pace (buyback/dividend) vs FCF — sustaining cash returns at current pace?
  • Customer concentration and any pricing concessions to Chinese/EV OEMs
  • Restructuring/one-off charges that may be flattering or depressing run-rate earnings
General Sentiment
-1
Balanced
tail √Σ 61 · head √Σ 62 · conf 6/10

The macro tape is neutral with a slight risk-off lean (VIX 17.3, S&P 1.8% off highs, 10y at 4.46%), which by itself is a non-event for most names but matters more here because ALV carries a 1.35 beta in a cyclical auto-parts industry. That amplification is the main latent headwind: any drift toward risk-off would hit ALV harder than the index, even though nothing in the current tape is actively forcing selling. The narrative is a moderate-intensity, moderate-durability steady-compounder story with low cult coefficient - meaning there is no euphoric bid to lose, but also no fragile premium to defend, which keeps sentiment pressure muted in both directions. The active story arc is the EV/autonomy safety-systems angle pulling against the EV-simplification and China-competition bear case; neither side is dominating the tape right now. Analyst tone is constructive but tepid: a Hold consensus skewed to Buy (16 buys vs 1 sell), targets at 129.86 (about 10% above spot), and one fresh upward revision this month. That is a mild tailwind and shows no divergence from the steady-compounder narrative - analysts are aligned, not leaning against the story. Momentum is positive but unspectacular, reinforcing the balanced read.

Tailwinds 3
m40
Analyst tone tilting positive
16 Buys to 1 Sell, target 10% above spot, and a fresh upward revision this month. Modest but real lift, with no divergence from the bull narrative.
m35
Steady-compounder narrative is durable
Moderate-durability, low-cult story means there is no euphoric premium to unwind and no fragile retail bid to crack - sentiment floor is sturdier than for story stocks.
m30
Constructive momentum signal
Strong_positive momentum score gives the tape something to point to; trend-followers and systematic flows lean with, not against, the name right now.
Headwinds 3
m45
High-beta cyclical in a softening tape
Beta 1.35 plus auto-cyclical exposure means a neutral-but-slipping tape (VIX elevated, index off highs) lands harder on ALV than on defensives. Latent, not active, pressure.
m35
Rates backdrop unfriendly to autos
10y at 4.46% pressures auto affordability and OEM production volumes, which feeds directly into ALV's order book sentiment even before any earnings impact.
m25
EV-simplification narrative overhang
The bear story (fewer components per EV, China battery-safety competition) is a slow-burn de-rating risk that can resurface on any China auto data point or EV mix headline.
Net read: genuinely balanced, leaning a hair to the tailwind side right now. The narrative is moderate and durable rather than hot, analysts are quietly constructive, and there is no acute news pressure - so nothing is actively pushing the stock down today. But I would not call this a sentiment tailwind worth pressing: the 1.35 beta in a cyclical auto name means the moment the tape tilts even modestly risk-off, ALV gives back more than the index, and the EV-simplification bear story is a permanent low-grade overhang that can flare on any China headline. Sentiment here is a coiled spring, not a wind at the back.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Any move of the regime score below -25 (active risk-off) - would amplify the beta drag
  • China auto production or BYD safety-systems headlines that could reignite the EV-simplification bear narrative
  • Next earnings: margin trajectory vs the 14-15% mature-margin assumption embedded in the story
  • Further target revisions - cluster of upgrades would tip sentiment to tailwind; any cuts would expose the cyclical fragility
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
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Three lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), and General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 20, 2026 3:04:45 am

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 20, 2026 3:05am (7d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $8.2B $8.8B $10.5B $10.4B $10.8B
Cost of Revenue $6.7B $7.4B $8.7B $8.5B $8.7B
Gross Profit $1.5B $1.4B $1.8B $1.9B $2.1B
Operating Expenses $836.0M $737.0M $1.1B $948.0M $984.0M
Operating Income $675.0M $659.0M $690.0M $979.0M $1.1B
Net Income $435.0M $423.0M $488.0M $646.0M $735.0M
EBITDA $1.1B $1.0B $1.1B $1.4B $1.5B
EPS $4.97 $4.86 $5.74 $8.05 $9.60
EPS (Diluted) — — — — —
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 20, 2026 3:00am (7d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $969.0M $594.0M $498.0M $330.0M $604.0M
Total Current Assets $3.7B $3.7B $4.0B $3.5B $4.1B
Total Assets $7.5B $7.7B $8.3B $7.8B $8.6B
Current Liabilities $2.8B $3.6B $4.0B $3.6B $3.9B
Long-Term Debt $1.7B $1.1B $1.3B $1.5B $1.9B
Total Liabilities $4.9B $5.1B $5.8B $5.5B $6.1B
Total Equity $2.6B $2.6B $2.6B $2.3B $2.6B
Retained Earnings $2.7B $2.3B $2.3B $2.1B $2.3B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 20, 2026 3:05am (7d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $754.0M $713.0M $982.0M $1.1B $1.2B
Capital Expenditure -$458.0M -$585.0M -$573.0M -$579.0M -$441.0M
Free Cash Flow $296.0M $128.0M $409.0M $480.0M $715.0M
Acquisitions (net) $4.0M $101.0M $0 $0 $18.0M
Debt Repayment — — — — —
Dividends Paid — — — — —
Stock Buybacks $0 -$115.0M -$352.0M -$552.0M -$351.0M
Net Change in Cash -$209.0M -$375.0M -$96.0M -$168.0M $274.0M
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 20, 2026 3:00am (7d ago)
Metric 2027 2028 2029 2030
Revenue $11.5B
$11.3B – $11.6B
 $11.9B
$11.8B – $11.9B
 $12.4B
$12.2B – $12.6B
 $12.9B
$12.7B – $13.1B
EBITDA $1.8B
$1.8B – $1.8B
 $1.8B
$1.8B – $1.8B
 $1.9B
$1.9B – $1.9B
 $2.0B
$2.0B – $2.0B
Net Income $954.3M
$898.7M – $1.0B
 $1.1B
$984.1M – $1.1B
 $1.1B
$1.1B – $1.1B
 $1.3B
$1.2B – $1.3B
EPS — — — —
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 20, 2026 3:05am (7d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +7.4% +18.5% -0.8% +4.1%
Gross Profit Growth -7.6% +30.5% +5.8% +7.6%
Operating Income Growth -2.4% +4.7% +41.9% +11.3%
Net Income Growth -2.8% +15.4% +32.4% +13.8%
EBITDA Growth -3.9% +5.6% +26.5% +9.2%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 20, 2026 3:04am (7d ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-06-12 Carlson Jan S-Sale 19,607.00 $130.00 $2.5M
2026-06-08 Senko Thaddeus A-Award 9.53 $0.00 $0
2026-06-08 Karaboutis Adriana A-Award 9.53 $0.00 $0
2026-06-08 Carlson Jan A-Award 14.72 $0.00 $0
2026-06-08 LUNDGREN GUSTAV A-Award 9.53 $0.00 $0
2026-06-08 JOHANSSON LEIF A-Award 9.53 $0.00 $0
2026-06-08 Liu Xiaozhi A-Award 9.53 $0.00 $0
2026-06-08 Lissalde Frederic A-Award 9.53 $0.00 $0
2026-06-08 BRLAS LAURIE A-Award 9.53 $0.00 $0
2026-06-08 ALBUSCHUS PETRA A-Award 7.14 $0.00 $0
2026-06-08 ALBUSCHUS PETRA A-Award 4.38 $0.00 $0
2026-06-08 ALBUSCHUS PETRA A-Award 3.39 $0.00 $0
2026-06-08 ALBUSCHUS PETRA A-Award 3.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-08 ALBUSCHUS PETRA A-Award 2.74 $0.00 $0
2026-06-08 ALBUSCHUS PETRA A-Award 2.26 $0.00 $0
2026-06-08 ALBUSCHUS PETRA A-Award 2.14 $0.00 $0
2026-06-08 Swahn Christian A-Award 7.14 $0.00 $0
2026-06-08 Swahn Christian A-Award 4.38 $0.00 $0
2026-06-08 Swahn Christian A-Award 3.39 $0.00 $0
2026-06-08 Swahn Christian A-Award 3.00 $0.00 $0
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 20, 2026 3:00am (7d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-05-20 $0.87 2026-05-06 2026-05-20 2026-06-08
2026-03-04 $0.87 2026-02-19 2026-03-04 2026-03-19
2025-11-21 $0.87 2025-11-11 2025-11-21 2025-12-10
2025-09-05 $0.85 2025-06-04 2025-09-05 2025-09-23
2025-05-21 $0.70 2025-05-07 2025-05-21 2025-06-10
2025-03-07 $0.70 2025-02-21 2025-03-07 2025-03-24
2024-12-03 $0.70 2024-11-11 2024-12-03 2024-12-19
2024-09-04 $0.68 2024-08-23 2024-09-04 2024-09-23
2024-05-22 $0.68 2024-05-09 2024-05-23 2024-06-12
2024-03-11 $0.68 2024-02-20 2024-03-12 2024-03-27
2023-11-27 $0.68 2023-11-09 2023-11-28 2023-12-13
2023-09-06 $0.66 2023-08-21 2023-09-07 2023-09-22
2023-05-24 $0.66 2023-05-10 2023-05-25 2023-06-13
2023-03-07 $0.66 2023-02-16 2023-03-08 2023-03-23
2022-11-21 $0.66 2022-11-08 2022-11-22 2022-12-09
2022-09-06 $0.64 2022-08-18 2022-09-07 2022-09-22
2022-05-23 $0.64 2022-05-10 2022-05-24 2022-06-13
2022-03-07 $0.64 2022-02-22 2022-03-08 2022-03-23
2021-11-26 $0.64 2021-11-10 2021-11-29 2021-12-13
2021-09-08 $0.62 2021-08-19 2021-09-09 2021-09-24
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for ALV — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-20 03:05:21
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict Fairly valued, not overvalued — fair value $105-115 vs synthesis's $93; hold existing positions, wait for Q2 2026 print to confirm whether Q1's 5.2% net margin was noise or the inflection before adding.

Reading the raw numbers first: Autoliv has done the operational work. Annual revenue went $8.23B (2021) → $10.82B (2025), a ~7% CAGR, but the real story is margin recovery — operating income $675M → $1.09B, op margin from 8.2% to 10.1%, and net income from $435M to $735M (+69%). FCF $715M on a $8.85B market cap is a 8.1% FCF yield, with OCF of $1.16B covering $441M capex comfortably and a 2.6% dividend on top. The Q1 2026 print, however, deserves scrutiny: revenue $2.75B is fine (+6.6% YoY) but net income dropped to $142M (5.2% margin) from $226M in Q4 — a sharp sequential margin compression after a string of 6-9% quarters. That's the first crack, and the synthesis models largely glide past it.

The prior models converge a bit too neatly on "fully priced." The synthesis fair value of $93.63 vs $118.24 implies 21% downside, but their composite leans on a normalized-margin DCF that ignores that 2025 was Autoliv's best operating year in five and Q1 2026 already shows margin reversion. Meanwhile the market-forces model calls this "cyclical peak margins" — but 10% operating margin is hardly peak for a safety supplier; Autoliv ran 11-13% op margins in 2015-2017. So is this peak or mid-cycle recovery? The bear case rests on EV-driven content loss, yet airbags and seatbelts are mandated in EVs identically to ICE; the structural-decline thesis is weaker than the market-forces note implies. The pre-flight note that "market isn't pricing growth" at 12.5x TTM PE actually undermines the synthesis's "vulnerable to disappointment" red flag — you can't simultaneously claim the multiple bakes in nothing and that it bakes in too much.

The contrarian read: at 12.5x earnings, 7.3x EV/EBITDA, and 1.0x EV/sales with 27.8% ROE and a 8% FCF yield, this is not a stretched stock by any normal screen. The bear thesis requires either (a) Chinese safety suppliers (Joyson, etc.) materially taking share — possible but slow given crash-test qualification cycles measured in years per OEM platform, or (b) global light vehicle production falling structurally below 85M units. Neither is the base case. The 19,607-share insider sale on 6/12/26 is a single transaction against years of awards — not a meaningful signal. What is meaningful: the Q1 2026 NI drop. If that's tariff/FX noise it's noise; if it's the start of margin mean-reversion to 7-8% net, then 2026 EPS lands around $7.50-8.00 and a 13x multiple gives $100, vindicating the synthesis. If margins hold near 2025's 6.8% net on $11.3B revenue, EPS is $9.50+ and 13x gives $124.

Where I land: I dissent partially from the synthesis $93.63 fair value — that anchor is too punitive given the demonstrated FCF generation, capital returns, and the absence of a credible structural-decline mechanism beyond narrative. But I also can't endorse aggressive buying at $118 with Q1 2026 showing the first margin wobble in a year and macro headwinds confirmed. Fair value is closer to $105-115 — roughly in line with current price, not 20% below. The right action is to wait one print: if Q2 2026 confirms Q1 was a one-off (back to 6.5%+ net margin), this is a clean buy on any pullback to $105. If Q2 shows further compression toward 5%, the synthesis is right and the stock derates to the low $90s. The risk/reward at $118 today is symmetric, not skewed down as the synthesis claims.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-20 03:05:27
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict Diverging from Opus, I see more downside risk—fair value around $100, considering Q1 margin concerns and potential structural challenges, versus Opus's $105-115.

In my independent analysis of Autoliv, Inc., the company's financial performance showcases a solid historical revenue growth trajectory from $8.23 billion in 2021 to $10.82 billion in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7%. However, it's the margin recovery that is particularly noteworthy here, with operating income rising from $675 million to $1.09 billion, and net income from $435 million to $735 million over the same period. The free cash flow (FCF) yield stands robust at 8.1%, supported by strong operating cash flow of $1.16 billion against a capital expenditure of $441 million. Despite these strengths, the most recent quarterly figures show a concerning decline in net income to $142 million (5.2% margin) in Q1 2026 from $226 million (8.0% margin) in Q4 2025. This sharp sequential decline in margins warrants close attention.

I find myself partially in agreement with Claude Opus's analysis but with some key divergences. Opus argues that the synthesis models' fair value of $93.63 is too conservative and fails to consider Autoliv's historical margin performance and current market dynamics. I agree that the synthesis's valuation may be overly punitive, especially given Autoliv's strong free cash flow generation and capital returns. However, I disagree with Opus's assertion that the margin compression in Q1 2026 might be noise. The drop in net income and margins is significant and could indicate early signs of margin reversion, which the synthesis models reasonably highlight as a risk.

Furthermore, Opus suggests that the market is not pricing in growth at a 12.5x PE, which contradicts the synthesis's "vulnerable to disappointment" stance. I concur with this point; the current valuation metrics, such as EV/EBITDA of 7.3x and EV/sales of 1.0x, do not suggest a high growth premium. However, I diverge from Opus's view that the bear thesis concerning EV-driven content loss is weak. The structural changes in the auto industry towards EVs and potential competition from Chinese suppliers could pose real risks, albeit over a longer horizon.

A careful skeptic might argue that both Opus's and my assessments understate the potential for structural decline in Autoliv's core markets. They could point to the insider sale of 19,607 shares as a negative signal, despite Opus's dismissal of its significance. Moreover, a skeptic might emphasize the broader macroeconomic headwinds and the inherent risks of a cyclical industry, particularly with potential disruptions in global auto production volumes.

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Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.352 · d1100787 · 2026-06-26 11:39:30