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AGING Analysis Report
Aug 2, 2026
21 days ago · 100% complete
NOT DEPENDABLE This report predates a filing — its financial basis has been replaced.
Report generated: Aug 2, 2026 · Filing on record since: Aug 19, 2026 · 16 days after
SHARE COUNT CORRECTED The share count in the filing was mis-scaled and has been corrected.
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. (ASM) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score +11 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 24 · Value 0 · Sentiment 32 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $0.38 vs $5.33 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd.

ASM NYSE
Basic Materials · Other Precious Metals & Mining
Vancouver, BC V6C 3P1, Canada avino.com Updated Aug 2, 2:05pm
Price
Market Cap
$934.2M
Employees
0
Beta
2.93
Avg Volume
3,205,930
Last Dividend
$0.05
CEO
Mr. David Wolfin

Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. is a Canadian-based mining company focused on exploring, developing, and producing precious metals. The primary function of Avino is the extraction of silver and gold, and the company has a significant footprint in mining and metallurgical sectors. It operates principally through its wholly-owned Avino property, which includes the historic Avino Mine located in Durango, Mexico. This site is notable for its longstanding history and rich veins of high-grade ore. Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. serves the global market's demand for silver and gold, with its production process catering to uses in industries such as electronics, jewelry, and as a financial hedge. The company emphasizes sustainable and efficient operations prioritizing both economic feasibility and environmental stewardship. As part of the metals and mining industry, it plays a significant role in the supply chain of these precious commodities, contributing to the stability and growth of market liquidity and providing raw materials for industrial and consumer goods. Avino's focus on silver and gold mining places it strategically within the context of rising global demand for these metals, influenced by economic growth and technological advancement.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 2, 2026 2:13pm
Price Overview
Price at report time
$5.33
as of Aug 2, 2:21pm (21d ago)
Change · Aug 2
-0.20 (-3.62%)
Day Range
$5.21 – $5.45
52-Week Range
$3.10 – $11.99
50-Day MA
$6.20
200-Day MA
$6.66
Volume
2,736,800.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 21d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 168,571,331.00
Float 159,315,108.00
Free Float 94.5%
High free float — 94.5% of shares trade freely, ~5.5% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:25pm (21d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:05pm (21d ago)
Why there are no quarterly figures for Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd.

Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. is a foreign private issuer — it reports to the U.S. SEC once a year (on Form 20-F or 40-F) rather than filing the quarterly statements (10-Q) that U.S.-domiciled companies must submit. Our financial statements are read directly from SEC filings, so for this company only annual figures exist at the source.

This is a property of how the company files, not missing or broken data — its filing history shows 8 annual reports, the latest filed 2025-03-12, and no quarterly filings . The company may still publish quarterly results on its own investor-relations site.

Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 2, 2026 2:11pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
31.35
Stock Price: N/A
EPS (Diluted): 0.17
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
3,594.13
Stock Price: N/A
Total Equity: $234.03M
Shares: 157,811,276,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
Market Cap: $934.19M
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $101.72M
EBITDA: N/A
EBITDA not available
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$832.5M
Market Cap: $934.19M
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $101.72M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
52.6%
Gross Profit: $48.54M
Revenue: $92.23M
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
Operating Income: N/A
Revenue: $92.23M
Missing from API: Operating Income
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
28.9%
Net Income: $26.64M
Revenue: $92.23M
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
11.4%
Net Income: $26.64M
Total Equity: $234.03M
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
Operating Income: N/A
Tax Rate: N/A
Equity: $234.03M
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $101.72M
Zero debt — invested capital = equity minus cash (very efficient)
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
4.06
Current Assets: $132.07M
Current Liabilities: $32.51M
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.00
Short-Term Debt: $0.00
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $0.00
Total Equity: $234.03M
Zero debt — this company carries no debt obligations. Strongest possible score.
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$0.00
Revenue: $92.23M
Shares: 157,811,276,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$0.00
Total Equity: $234.03M
Shares: 157,811,276,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$0.00
Operating CF: $27.42M
CapEx: $0.00
Shares: 157,811,276,000
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.9%
Last Dividend: $0.05
Stock Price: N/A
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $26.64M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 2, 2026 2:11pm
Compares ASM against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:05pm (21d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $11.2M $44.2M $43.9M $66.2M $92.2M
Cost of Revenue $7.7M $29.1M $36.1M $43.0M $43.7M
Gross Profit $3.5M $15.1M $7.8M $23.2M $48.5M
Operating Expenses
Operating Income
Net Income -$2.1M $3.1M $542,000 $8.1M $26.6M
EBITDA
EPS $-0.02 $0.03
EPS (Diluted) $-0.02 $0.03 $0.00 $0.06 $0.17
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:05pm (21d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $24.8M $11.2M $2.7M $27.3M $101.7M
Total Current Assets $35.5M $25.6M $23.5M $40.8M $132.1M
Total Assets $86.3M $121.2M $128.3M $148.7M $279.0M
Current Liabilities $3.8M $16.8M $13.8M $15.5M $32.5M
Long-Term Debt
Total Liabilities $7.8M $23.2M $22.3M $23.3M $45.0M
Total Equity $78.5M $98.0M $106.0M $125.4M $234.0M
Retained Earnings -$56.0M -$52.0M -$51.4M -$43.3M -$16.6M
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:05pm (21d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $109,000 $11.8M $1.5M $23.1M $27.4M
Capital Expenditure $0 $-330,000 $414,000
Free Cash Flow $109,000 $11.5M $1.9M
Acquisitions (net)
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) $2.5M $0
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks
Net Change in Cash $13.0M -$13.4M -$8.6M $24.6M $74.4M
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:05pm (21d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +293.5% -0.7% +50.8% +39.4%
Gross Profit Growth +324.6% -48.1% +196.7% +109.2%
Operating Income Growth
Net Income Growth +250.5% -82.5% +1,394.5% +228.9%
EBITDA Growth
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:05pm (21d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
1999-08-31 $0.01
1999-06-10 $0.01
1999-03-09 $0.01
1998-12-02 $0.01
1998-09-01 $0.01
1998-06-03 $0.01
1998-03-10 $0.01
1997-12-03 $0.01
1997-08-29 $0.01
1997-06-04 $0.01
1997-03-05 $0.01
1996-12-04 $0.01
1996-09-18 $0.01
1996-06-06 $0.01
1996-02-28 $0.01
1995-11-29 $0.01
1995-08-28 $0.01
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable not yet run 15 computed · 6 not applicable · 3 not yet run
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for ASM — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-08-02 14:24:14
Verdict Overvalued at $5.33 — mid-cycle fair value $2.00-2.50 on normalized silver; the 2025 print is a cyclical peak masquerading as a growth story, and the synthesis's $0 fair value is a broken DCF, not evidence.

Starting from the raw numbers: Avino has genuinely inflected. Revenue went from $11.2M (2021) to $44.2M → $43.9M → $66.2M → $92.2M, with gross margin expanding from 31% to 18% (2023 trough on cost inflation) up to 52.6% in 2025. Net income moved from -$2.1M to $26.6M, and operating cash flow hit $27.4M against $101.7M cash and zero debt. On a $930M market cap that's ~35x trailing earnings and ~10x sales for a single-asset Mexican silver-gold miner. The 45% revenue CAGR and 601% earnings CAGR are real but heavily flattered by silver's move — spot silver ran from ~$23 to north of $35 over this window, and precious-metals producers show extreme operating leverage precisely because unit costs are sticky while realized prices aren't. Strip out the commodity tailwind and the "turnaround" is far less dramatic than the P&L suggests.

The prior models are contradicting each other in ways worth pulling apart. The rule-based classifier calls this "high-growth profitable" — that's a category error; this is a commodity producer that had a good year, not a compounder. Pre-Flight correctly identifies it as traditional/cyclical. The Valuation Synthesis says fair value is $0.00 which is a broken output (likely a DCF choking on unreported capex) and should be discarded, not cited. Market Forces claims "zero operating income" and "market share losses" — this is wrong on the first point (GM of $48.5M on $92.2M with $27.4M OCF is not zero operating income; op line is just unreported in the file) and nonsensical on the second (mining "market share" isn't a coherent concept for a single-mine junior). The Narrative layer is the most honest read: fragile turnaround-bet, moderate intensity, entirely dependent on silver prices holding. I'd weight Narrative and Pre-Flight heavily and largely dismiss the Synthesis and Market Forces outputs as mechanically misfiring on a commodity name.

The contrarian case worth taking seriously: at $5.33 and ~$930M cap, ASM is being priced as if 2025's 52.6% gross margin is the new baseline. It isn't. Silver miners routinely see gross margins compress 1,500-2,500 bps when spot rolls over 15-20%, which is a normal cyclical move. Normalize gross margin to a mid-cycle ~35% on 2025 revenue and you get ~$32M gross, maybe $12-15M net — putting the multiple at 60-75x normalized earnings for a business with reserve depletion risk, Mexican jurisdiction risk (recent mining law changes under Sheinbaum are material), and no diversification. The P/B of 3594 flagged in anomalies is almost certainly a data error (equity is $234M, cap $930M, so P/B ~4x — high but not absurd for a miner at cycle peak margins). ROE of 11% at what is likely peak-cycle earnings is not impressive; it implies mid-cycle ROE in the mid-single digits. The bull needs silver at $40+ sustained AND production growth AND no capex surprise — three things at once.

I dissent partially from the synthesis in method (their $0 fair value is garbage) but agree in direction: this is overvalued, though not to zero. My rough anchor: normalize NI to $12-15M mid-cycle, apply 15-18x (generous for a single-asset junior), and you get $180-270M enterprise value, or roughly $1.60-2.40/share versus $5.33. That's a 55-70% downside to mid-cycle fair value, offset by real optionality if silver keeps ripping. The clean cash balance ($101.7M, ~11% of cap) and zero debt genuinely de-risk the downside — this isn't a bankruptcy candidate, it's a cyclical trading well above mid-cycle worth. The signal I'd want before changing my mind: evidence that the 52% GM is structural (grade improvement, mill throughput permanence) rather than price-driven, which the file doesn't provide. Until then, the market is paying a growth multiple for a commodity print.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-02 14:24:28
Verdict Overvalued around $5.33 — excellent operational improvement, but nearly $0.93B for a sub-$100M-revenue miner prices 2025 as a durable new normal before that is proven.

What jumps out is that the business has clearly improved operationally, but the equity is already priced as if this new earnings level is durable and expandable. Revenue has gone from $11.2M in 2021 to $92.2M in 2025, and net income from a $2.1M loss to $26.6M. That is not cosmetic progress: gross profit rose from $3.5M to $48.5M, implying gross margin expanded to 52.6% from roughly 31% in 2021 and 17.8% in 2023. On the surface, that is an excellent turnaround. The balance sheet also looks unusually clean for a junior miner, with $101.7M of cash, no reported debt, a current ratio above 4x, and operating cash flow of $27.4M. If I only looked at solvency and the most recent income statement, I would say this is one of the better-positioned small precious-metals names.

But miners do not get valued on one good year of margins, especially single-asset or concentrated producers, and the valuation here looks stretched against the scale of the actual operation. At a $0.93B market cap on $92.2M of revenue, investors are paying about 10x sales for a commodity producer. Even using the reported 2025 net income of $26.6M, that is roughly a 35x earnings multiple by back-of-envelope math, close to the listed 31.4x P/E. For a precious-metals miner whose revenue was still just $43.9M in 2023 and $44.2M in 2022, that multiple assumes either a much larger production base ahead or sustainably elevated metal prices plus maintained cost discipline. The problem is that 2025 already looks like a very strong year: a 28.9% net margin and 52.6% gross margin are rich outcomes for this kind of business. When a small miner is being valued more like a growth software stock than a cyclical extractor, I default to skepticism.

The other thing I do not like is the gap between the market’s enthusiasm and the limited evidence base in the financial history provided. The company has only recently demonstrated real profitability: net income was just $542K in 2023 and $3.1M in 2022. That means the market is capitalizing one breakout year very aggressively. Yes, operating cash flow of $27.4M gives some comfort that earnings are not obviously fake, and the cash pile is meaningful relative to the income statement. But without capex detail, mine-life economics, reserve conversion, or a multi-year production profile, I cannot justify nearly $1B of equity value on sub-$100M revenue. Mining is capital hungry even when debt is zero today; absent capex disclosure, the reported earnings and cash balance may flatter what is actually distributable economics.

The best case against my caution is straightforward: if 2025 is not a peak but the start of a new run-rate, then the stock can grow into the valuation quickly. Revenue grew 39.4% year over year, earnings 228.9%, and the company now has over $100M in cash to self-fund expansion rather than dilute or lever up. A bull would say this is exactly what you want in a junior producer: operational leverage finally showing through, no balance-sheet distress, and torque to silver and gold prices if the macro turns favorable. They would also point out that EV/revenue around 9x is less absurd than market-cap-to-revenue given the net cash. I still weigh that less heavily because the history is too short and too commodity-dependent; a miner earning $26.6M once is not the same as a miner that can repeatedly earn it through a cycle.

What would change my mind is evidence that 2025 was not a spike. If the next annual period can hold revenue above $90M while keeping gross margin near or above 45% and operating cash flow at or above net income after funding sustaining capex, then I would be more open to a premium multiple. Likewise, a credible production-growth plan funded from the current $101.7M cash without large dilution would materially improve the case. On the other hand, if revenue slips back toward the $60M-$70M range or net margin normalizes into the low teens, the current valuation will look plainly excessive.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-08-02 14:25:14
Verdict Real turnaround to ~$92M rev / 53% GM / $27M OCF, but ~31x PE and 9x EV/S already price it; modestly rich at ~$5.33

The annual progression from 2021 through 2025 is unambiguous: Avino went from a barely viable $11.2M revenue producer losing money to a $92.2M revenue operation throwing off $26.6M in net income and $27.4M in operating cash flow. Gross margin expanded from the mid-teens to 52.6% and net margin hit 28.9%—classic operating leverage in a high-fixed-cost mine once throughput and recoveries stabilized. The balance sheet corroborates the P&L rather than contradicting it: $101.7M cash, zero debt, $234M equity, and a 4.1 current ratio. This is no longer a hope-and-pray junior; 2025 delivered real, unlevered cash earnings. Revenue CAGR of roughly 45% and the step-change in earnings are not accounting artifacts.

Where the quantitative stack falls apart is valuation and several of the canned signals. The reported P/B of 3,594 and P/S of 9,120 are garbage—simple division of the $0.93B market cap by $234M equity yields a perfectly ordinary ~4x book, and EV/revenue of 9.0x is the only sales multiple that is internally consistent. The Valuation Synthesis fair value of $0.00 is equally broken given $27M of operating cash flow and a fortress balance sheet; it should be ignored. Likewise, the Market Forces claim of “zero operating income” and “severe earnings quality concerns” is flatly contradicted by the income statement and cash-flow statement. The business improved dramatically; the models that cannot see it are misfiring on missing fields (op income and FCF flagged as “—”).

That said, the multiple still looks full. At roughly 31x trailing earnings and ~9x EV/sales for a single-mine Mexican silver-gold producer, the market is already paying for continued margin durability and further volume growth. Precious-metals equities are commodity torque vehicles; if silver and gold prices roll over, or if Avino’s one operating asset hits a grade or recovery air pocket, both the 53% gross margin and the 29% net margin will compress violently. The 55% drawdown from 52-week highs already signals that the market has begun to question whether 2025 was peak earnings rather than a new run-rate. Narrative durability is correctly flagged as fragile—there is no moat beyond the deposit and the current metal-price tape.

The strongest counter-argument is simply that clean, debt-free, high-margin ounces are scarce and that the earnings power just demonstrated ($26–27M of cash generation) can support a higher multiple if management converts the cash pile into a second producing asset or a meaningful reserve expansion. A bull can also note that EV net of cash is closer to $830M, so the true earnings yield is less punitive than the headline P/E implies, and that sector-relative metrics still look respectable versus other small silver producers. I weigh those points, but they do not erase single-asset and commodity-price risk at 30-turn cash-flow multiples.

I would reverse to a clear undervalued stance if the next two reported quarters sustain gross margins above 45% on rising throughput (proving 2025 was not a price-spike fluke), or if a credible reserve/resource update or second-mine development path appears that re-anchors the story in volume rather than metal prices alone. A sustained break in silver below levels that compress margins back toward 30% would push me the other way into outright avoidance.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 1.7; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.3 vs panel · self: 3.0
GPT gpt-5.4 1.0
overvalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -0.7 vs panel · self: 3.0
Grok grok-4.5 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.3 vs panel · self: 4.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-02 21:56:32
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality is real, price is not — pass at $5.33, revisit on a silver-driven drawdown 6/10
Genuinely improved silver junior with a fortress balance sheet, but at $5.33 the tape and commodity tailwind are doing the heavy lifting — quality (+24) doesn't rescue a stretched price.
The cruxWhether 2025's 52.6% gross margin and $27M FCF are a durable new run-rate or a silver-price peak — at 9x EV/S and ~31x PE, the stock is priced as if it is durable.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from ASM's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionHeavy Dilution
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+24
Solid
edge √Σ 113 · risk √Σ 88 · conf 6/10

The operating trajectory is unambiguously improving: revenue has compounded from $11.2M (2021) to $92.2M (2025), gross margin has expanded from 31.6% to 52.6%, net income swung from a $2.1M loss to $26.6M, and free cash flow reached $27.4M. Balance sheet is a fortress for a miner of this size: $101.7M liquid cash, no net debt, Altman Z of 13.13, and OCF/NI of 2.08x with accruals at -4.2% of assets, all pointing to real cash conversion behind the reported earnings. The Beneish M flag at -1.07 is largely a mechanical consequence of huge margin expansion and receivables/revenue growth off a small base, not obvious manipulation given the corroborating cash flow. The clear blemish is dilution. Diluted shares are growing ~12% CAGR with zero offsetting buyback, so per-share value capture badly lags the business's operational leap. As a precious-metals producer, results are also intrinsically levered to silver/gold prices — the 2025 margin explosion partly reflects a favorable commodity tape, not just execution, and reported operating margin is oddly shown as 0% across every year in the trajectory, which needs reconciling against the strong net income and FCF figures. Overall this reads as a small, self-funding producer in its best operating state in years, but with a capital-structure habit that dilutes owners and commodity exposure that can reverse the margin story quickly.

Strengths 3
m70
Fortress balance sheet for a junior miner
$101.7M cash, zero net debt, Altman Z 13.13, and $27.4M FCF means survival is not a question and external capital is not required.
m65
Real cash behind the earnings
OCF/NI of 2.08x and accruals at -4.2% of assets indicate reported profit is backed by cash, mitigating the Beneish flag.
m60
Multi-year operational step-up
Revenue 8x from $11.2M to $92.2M (2021-2025), gross margin from 31.6% to 52.6%, net income from -$2.1M to $26.6M.
Concerns 4
m65
Chronic dilution erodes per-share value
Diluted share count growing ~12% CAGR with no buyback offset; owners capture materially less than the headline business improvement.
m45
Commodity-price dependence
As a silver/gold producer, the 2025 margin surge to 52.6% is partly a function of metals prices, not proprietary moat; reversal is a live risk.
m30
Beneish M-score elevated
M-score -1.07 crosses -1.78; likely benign given cash backing but worth cross-checking receivables days and depreciation policy.
m25
Data inconsistency in operating margin
Operating margin printed as 0% in every year despite clear GAAP net income and FCF — a reconciliation item on the source data or unusual cost classification.
This looks like a well-run junior silver producer having its best operational year in memory, with a clean, cash-heavy balance sheet and earnings that actually convert to cash. My hesitation is structural: the shareholder base is being diluted about 12% a year, which is how many junior miners quietly transfer the operational win from owners to option holders and issuance recipients, and the underlying commodity exposure means today's 52.6% gross margin is not a stable moat. As a business, it's genuinely in a good state — solidly in the 60s of the frame — but the capital discipline and commodity dependence keep me from calling it strong or fortress.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • Reconcile the 0% operating margin figure against reported GAAP operating income in the 10-K/40-F
  • Source of ~12% annual share issuance: at-the-market program, acquisitions, warrants, or option exercises
  • Mine life, reserves/resources, and all-in sustaining cost per silver-equivalent ounce
  • Realized silver/gold prices in 2025 vs 2024 to quantify how much of margin expansion is price vs cost
  • Receivables days and depreciation trend to explain the Beneish M-score flag
  • Related-party transactions and management compensation given ongoing dilution
Valuation / Mispricing
+0
edge √Σ 0 · risk √Σ 0
Cheap signals 0

None surfaced.

Rich / priced-in 0

None surfaced.

General Sentiment
+32
Tailwind
tail √Σ 101 · head √Σ 69 · conf 6/10

ASM is a beta-2.93 junior precious-metals miner riding a broad silver/gold complex bid. With the tape neutral-to-mildly-constructive (VIX 16, S&P only 1.6% off highs) and precious metals in favor as a rates/valuation hedge against a 4.68% 10y and a 26.9 market PE, this exact profile - small-cap, high-beta, silver-levered - is where sentiment flows land hardest. The 45% CAGR and +27.7pp three-year excess return confirm the narrative pressure has been decisively to the upside.

Tailwinds 3
m62
Precious-metals narrative bid
Silver/gold juniors are a favored expression when investors hedge stretched multiples and sticky long rates; ASM's pure silver-gold exposure catches that flow directly.
m55
High beta into a non-hostile tape
Beta 2.93 means any risk-on impulse is amplified 3x here; with the regime scored +22 and VIX subdued, the tape is a mild but real accelerant rather than a drag.
m58
Momentum reflexivity
A 45% CAGR and strong 3-year outperformance attract trend and retail flows in the junior-miner cohort, feeding the turnaround narrative independent of fundamentals.
Headwinds 3
m45
Narrative fragility
Turnaround-bet archetype with fragile durability and low cult coefficient - the story has no loyal holder base; a single bad quarter or a silver pullback flips sentiment fast.
m38
Momentum cooling on the margin
Recent 39.4% trails the 45% long-term CAGR - a small but real deceleration signal in a name where sentiment is the entire price.
m35
Rates/valuation macro pressure
10y at 4.68% and a 26.9 market PE are a general drag on speculative small-caps; partially offset here because precious metals are the classic hedge for that same setup.
Net tailwind, but a soft one. The precious-metals narrative plus a calm tape is doing real work for a beta-3 silver junior with a 45% CAGR - that is exactly the setup where sentiment pushes hardest to the upside. What keeps me from calling it Strong Tailwind is the fragility: low cult, turnaround archetype, and recent momentum already fading versus the trend. This is a stock the tape is currently helping, but one hostile silver print or a VIX pop reverses it violently.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Silver spot price trend and COMEX positioning - the single biggest sentiment driver for this name
  • Whether junior-miner ETF (SIL/SILJ) flows are still accretive or rolling over
  • Any production/guidance update that could crack the fragile turnaround narrative
  • VIX behavior - a spike above 20 punishes beta-3 names disproportionately
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
not run

This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.

The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.562 · 9b2927c4 · 2026-08-22 16:52:06