Business Description
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc., alongside its subsidiaries, manages a network of membership-based retail warehouses primarily located across the eastern United States. This enterprise provides a range of products including perishable goods, general merchandise, and gasoline, in addition to various supplementary services. Customers can acquire items through its dedicated websites—BJs.com, BerkleyJensen.com, Wellsleyfarms.com, and Delivery.bjs.com—as well as via its mobile application. By June 10, 2022, the company's operational footprint extended to 229 warehouse clubs and 160 gas stations across 17 states. Originally incorporated as Beacon Holding Inc., the company rebranded to BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. in February 2018. Established in 1984, its corporate headquarters are situated in Westborough, Massachusetts.
Business History
Generated: Jun 20, 2026 3:02amPrice Overview
Last updated: Jun 20, 2026 3:00am (7d ago)Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 4.41
Total Equity: $2.20B
Shares: 132,066,000
Total Debt: $728.35M
Cash: $46.25M
EBITDA: $1.11B
Total Debt: $728.35M
Cash: $46.25M
Revenue: $21.46B
Revenue: $21.46B
Revenue: $21.46B
Total Equity: $2.20B
Tax Rate: 25.3%
Equity: $2.20B
Total Debt: $728.35M
Cash: $46.25M
Current Liabilities: $2.67B
Long-Term Debt: $399.10M
Total Debt: $728.35M
Total Equity: $2.20B
Shares: 132,066,000
Shares: 132,066,000
CapEx: -$699.05M
Shares: 132,066,000
Stock Price: $85.22
Net Income: $578.38M
Industry Benchmarks
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · three lenses
Revenue has marched from $16.67B (2022) to $21.46B (2026), a ~6.5% CAGR with remarkable consistency, while gross margin held in a tight 17.8–18.6% band and operating margin held 3.7–4.0%. Net income compounded from $426.7M to $578.4M (~7.9% CAGR), and FCF has run $250–530M/yr, averaging well above net income on a cumulative basis (OCF/NI 1.66x), consistent with a working-capital-light, membership-fee-supported model.
Earnings integrity looks clean: accruals -5.1% of assets, Beneish M -2.86, Altman Z 4.57 (safe zone), and SBC is a trivial 0.2% of revenue with buybacks running 4.5x SBC — diluted share count fell from 138.0M to 132.1M (-1.1% CAGR), so per-share economics are being concentrated. The balance sheet is the one soft spot: net debt of $682M with only $46M liquid cash and $329M short-term debt, but $331M annual FCF easily services this, so it's a constraint, not a danger.
Insider tape is almost entirely Rule-10b5-1-style routine selling by the CEO (Eddy) and other officers post-vest — no open-market P buys of consequence — which is normal for a mature compounder, not a red flag. The classification as a 'mature_earner' fits: low-volatility margins, steady comps, real cash generation, shareholder-friendly capital return.
Verify before trusting this (6)
- Membership fee revenue and renewal rate trend — the true profit engine of a warehouse club
- Capex breakdown: maintenance vs new-club growth, to confirm the FCF decline since 2022 is reinvestment, not deterioration
- Debt maturity schedule and terms of the $329M short-term debt — refinancing risk vs revolver
- Comparable club sales (traffic vs ticket) to gauge organic durability vs new-unit-led growth
- Whether insider sales are pre-scheduled 10b5-1 plans (footnote disclosure)
- Private-label penetration and gross-margin mix shift driving the 70bp GM expansion
The composite fair value sits at $62.47 and the signal-adjusted FV at $54.78, implying ~30-35% downside from $85.22. The DCF ($52.85) and EPV floor ($56.33) cluster tightly in the low-$50s, and the only method supporting today's price is the anchored-PE at $87.85 — which is essentially a multiple-extrapolation that says 'the market is right because the market says so.' Two of three methods agree the deserved price is in the mid-$50s; that's a real signal, not noise.
The Company-Quality lens correctly flags BJ as a quietly excellent compounder (score 74, clean accruals, real FCF, shrinking share count), which deserves a premium to pure-DCF output. But quality is already in the price — BJ trades at ~1.6x forward sales vs. Costco at ~1.2x, and Costco is the clearly superior business with a national moat. Paying a premium-to-Costco multiple for a regional warehouse club is the definition of priced-for-perfection. To justify $85, you need sustained mid-single-digit comps, continued membership-fee escalation, and margin expansion from ~4% op margins — any one of those wobbling re-rates the stock toward the $55-65 deserved zone.
Honest read: not a short, not a screaming sell — the business quality is real and the cash flows support a floor well above zero — but there is no margin of safety here. I want a meaningfully lower entry.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Forward membership fee revenue trajectory and renewal rate — the core annuity supporting the premium
- Same-store sales trend ex-fuel and ex-inflation — the single biggest re-rate risk
- Gross margin trend as private-label mix and digital scale up — is the 4% op margin actually expanding?
- Buyback pace vs. FCF — confirm share-count reduction continues at current cadence
- New club opening economics and cannibalization in core Northeast markets
The macro tape is neutral-to-mildly-cautious (VIX 17, S&P off highs, 10y at 4.46%), but with a 0.23 beta BJ absorbs almost none of that pressure. As a Consumer Defensive discount retailer, it actually benefits from the kind of low-grade macro anxiety that has investors trimming high-beta growth and rotating toward predictable cash flows and membership-fee compounders. The 'Costco-lite in the Northeast' narrative is moderate intensity but durable, and durable beats loud in a choppy tape.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Next comparable-sales print and membership-fee growth - the linchpin of the narrative
- Whether analyst Holds start migrating to Buys or the lone Sell expands
- VIX trajectory - a spike strengthens the defensive bid, a collapse rotates flows back to growth and saps BJ's relative appeal
- Costco results and commentary - any divergence reignites the 'regional premium' bear case
Deep Analysis
Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 20, 2026 3:05am (7d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $16.7B | $19.3B | $20.0B | $20.5B | $21.5B |
| Cost of Revenue | $13.6B | $15.9B | $16.3B | $16.7B | $17.5B |
| Gross Profit | $3.1B | $3.4B | $3.6B | $3.8B | $4.0B |
| Operating Expenses | $2.5B | $2.7B | $2.8B | $3.0B | $3.2B |
| Operating Income | $617.3M | $738.0M | $800.4M | $772.2M | $846.0M |
| Net Income | $426.7M | $513.2M | $523.7M | $534.4M | $578.4M |
| EBITDA | $788.7M | $933.3M | $1.0B | $1.0B | $1.1B |
| EPS | $3.15 | $3.83 | $3.94 | $4.04 | $4.41 |
| EPS (Diluted) | — | — | — | — | — |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 20, 2026 3:00am (7d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $45.4M | $33.9M | $36.0M | $28.3M | $46.2M |
| Total Current Assets | $1.5B | $1.7B | $1.8B | $1.9B | $2.0B |
| Total Assets | $5.7B | $6.3B | $6.7B | $7.1B | $7.5B |
| Current Liabilities | $2.0B | $2.5B | $2.5B | $2.5B | $2.7B |
| Long-Term Debt | $748.6M | $447.9M | $398.4M | $398.8M | $399.1M |
| Total Liabilities | $5.0B | $5.3B | $5.2B | $5.2B | $5.3B |
| Total Equity | $648.1M | $1.0B | $1.5B | $1.8B | $2.2B |
| Retained Earnings | $131.3M | $644.5M | $1.2B | $1.7B | $1.2B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 20, 2026 3:05am (7d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $831.7M | $788.2M | $718.9M | $900.9M | $1.0B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$304.5M | -$370.5M | -$467.1M | -$588.0M | -$699.1M |
| Free Cash Flow | $527.1M | $417.6M | $251.8M | $312.9M | $331.0M |
| Acquisitions (net) | $0 | -$376.5M | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Debt Repayment | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | -$194.3M | -$172.3M | -$155.2M | -$219.6M | -$286.8M |
| Net Change in Cash | $1.9M | -$11.5M | $2.1M | -$7.8M | $18.0M |
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 20, 2026 3:00am (7d ago)| Metric | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue |
$25.0B $24.0B – $26.5B
|
$26.4B $26.3B – $26.6B
|
$28.2B $26.8B – $29.8B
|
$30.0B $28.5B – $31.7B
|
| EBITDA |
$1.4B $1.4B – $1.5B
|
$1.5B $1.5B – $1.5B
|
$1.6B $1.5B – $1.7B
|
$1.7B $1.6B – $1.8B
|
| Net Income |
$625.1M $619.0M – $673.1M
|
$657.3M $656.3M – $717.9M
|
$766.0M $716.3M – $824.6M
|
$834.7M $780.5M – $898.6M
|
| EPS | — | — | — | — |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 20, 2026 3:05am (7d ago)| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +15.9% | +3.4% | +2.7% | +4.7% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +11.5% | +6.2% | +3.3% | +6.2% |
| Operating Income Growth | +19.5% | +8.5% | -3.5% | +9.6% |
| Net Income Growth | +20.3% | +2.1% | +2.0% | +8.2% |
| EBITDA Growth | +18.3% | +9.9% | +0.6% | +7.0% |
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 20, 2026 3:04am (7d ago)All SEC Form 4 codes
- P Purchase
- Open-market or private purchase of shares.
- S Sale
- Open-market or private sale of shares.
- A Award / grant
- Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
- D Return to issuer
- Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
- F In-kind (tax)
- Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
- I Discretionary
- Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
- M Option exercise
- Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
- C Conversion
- Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
- E Short expiration
- Expiration of a short derivative position.
- H Long expiration
- Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
- O OTM exercise
- Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
- X ITM exercise
- Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
- G Gift
- Bona fide gift of securities.
- L Small acquisition
- Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
- W Inheritance
- Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
- Z Voting trust
- Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
- J Other
- Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
- K Equity swap
- Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
- U Tender / buyout
- Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.
Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-18 | Steele Robert Allan | A-Award | 2,288.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Robinson Cathy Marie | A-Award | 2,288.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Peterson Christopher H | A-Award | 2,288.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Parent Kenneth M. | A-Award | 2,288.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Ortega Steven L | A-Award | 2,288.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Naylor Maile | A-Award | 2,288.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Burwick David A | A-Award | 2,288.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Gloeckler Michelle J. | A-Award | 2,288.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Brown Darryl | A-Award | 2,288.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Eddy Robert W. | S-Sale | 6,600.00 | $90.21 | $595,386 |
| 2026-06-15 | Eddy Robert W. | S-Sale | 1,400.00 | $91.35 | $127,890 |
| 2026-06-10 | Schmadeke Scott | S-Sale | 16,500.00 | $92.17 | $1.5M |
| 2026-05-15 | Eddy Robert W. | S-Sale | 5,543.00 | $95.91 | $531,629 |
| 2026-05-15 | Eddy Robert W. | S-Sale | 2,457.00 | $96.60 | $237,346 |
| 2026-04-15 | McGrail Joseph | S-Sale | 2,050.00 | $91.19 | $186,940 |
| 2026-04-15 | Eddy Robert W. | S-Sale | 7,700.00 | $90.99 | $700,623 |
| 2026-04-15 | Eddy Robert W. | S-Sale | 300.00 | $91.69 | $27,507 |
| 2026-04-10 | Morningstar Timothy Pierce | S-Sale | 7,436.00 | $90.40 | $672,214 |
| 2026-04-13 | Morningstar Timothy Pierce | S-Sale | 7,436.00 | $93.19 | $692,961 |
| 2026-04-01 | McGrail Joseph | A-Award | 4,128.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Looking at the raw trajectory first: quarterly revenue moves from $5.21B (Aug-2024) to $5.66B (May-2026), call it ~4-5% YoY consistently. Net margins oscillate in a tight 2.3-3.1% band with no expansion trend — if anything, the most recent quarter (2.5%) sits below the year-ago print (2.9%). Annual revenue compounded 3.7% over four years; net income compounded 5.1%. This is a low-single-digit top-line, mid-single-digit bottom-line business. FCF of $331M against $699M capex tells me the 14.7% FCF CAGR is partly a function of working capital and timing, not a structural step-up — operating CF of $1.03B is fine but capex intensity is real (3.3% of revenue) because they're still building clubs. Current ratio of 0.75 and $46M cash is thin but normal for a retailer with inventory turns and trade payables doing the heavy lifting.
On valuation: $10.88B market cap, $578M TTM net income, 19x earnings. EV/EBITDA at 12x is not cheap for a 4% grower with 2.7% net margins and no dividend. The bull case for paying 19x rests entirely on (a) membership fee annuity quality and (b) closing the Costco multiple gap. But Costco grows faster, earns higher margins, has international optionality, and a 90%+ renewal rate moat — BJ's isn't a discount-Costco, it's a smaller, more regionally concentrated operator. The synthesis fair value of $55-62 looks directionally right to me; I'd anchor closer to $65 (16x earnings is fair for this growth profile, which on $3.60ish forward EPS gets you ~$58, plus a small membership-quality premium). Either way, $85 is paying for execution that the four-year track record does not demonstrate.
The prior models broadly converge on overvalued, and I agree, but I want to push back on two things. First, the "Net Insider Buying" tag in Secondary Signals directly contradicts the insider transaction log, which shows ten consecutive S-Sale entries totaling ~57,000 shares over April-June 2026 and zero buys. That's a data error, and it matters because the Market Forces module correctly flagged "extreme insider selling" — so the model layer disagrees with itself. Trust the raw transaction log: insiders are distributing into the $85-90 range, which is a meaningful tell when the stock is already off its $115 high. Second, the Pre-Flight thesis says BJ trades "near 52-week lows" — fine, but lows in a downtrend are not a valuation argument; they're a momentum observation. The narrative layer's claim of a 55% premium to DCF is the more honest read.
The contrarian case I can construct: warehouse club membership models are genuinely recession-resilient, BJ's has been quietly compounding membership fee income, and if gas margins or private-label penetration step up, you get operating leverage on a flat-cost base. Costco trades at 50x+ for a reason — the market eventually pays up for membership annuities. If BJ re-rates from 19x to 24x on stable execution, that's $105 without any earnings beat. But this requires the multiple to expand while insiders are selling and same-club comps are decelerating (Q1 FY27 net income of $143M is below Q1 FY26's $150M — first YoY earnings decline in the visible series, which nobody flagged). That's the print that breaks the steady-compounder narrative, and it just happened. I dissent from the bullish reframe and agree with the synthesis: fair value $60-65, current $85 prices in margin expansion that the most recent quarter argues against.
GPT Critique
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. shows a moderate growth trajectory with annual revenues increasing from $16.67B in 2022 to $21.46B in 2026, reflecting a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.7%. While the revenue growth is steady, the net income margin has compressed from 3.1% in 2024 to 2.5% in the latest quarter, highlighting potential operational challenges. The free cash flow (FCF) quality appears robust, but it is tempered by high capital expenditures, suggesting that growth is partly funded through reinvestment rather than pure operational efficiency improvements. The cash position is relatively weak at $46.2M, indicating potential liquidity constraints, especially in a competitive retail environment.
I concur with Opus's assessment that BJ's is overvalued at its current price of $85.22. The core of their argument revolves around the fact that BJ's trades at a 19x earnings multiple, which is rich for a company with modest growth and thin margins. The comparison with Costco, which has a significantly higher valuation multiple but also superior growth metrics and international exposure, supports the argument that BJ's premium is unjustified. I agree that BJ's does not exhibit the same moat or growth dynamics as Costco and that the current valuation seems to price in a level of execution and margin expansion that historical data does not support.
Opus points out the inconsistency between the "Net Insider Buying" signal and the insider transaction log, which shows consistent selling. I agree with this observation and emphasize the importance of insider behavior as an indicator of confidence in future performance. The extensive insider selling could indicate that management does not foresee substantial upside at current levels, which is a red flag for potential investors. Moreover, while Opus notes the narrative layer's claim of a 55% premium to DCF, I agree that the narrative alone does not justify the high valuation, given the operational realities.
A skeptic might argue that BJ's membership model could provide recession resilience and that the market might be undervaluing the potential for operating leverage through increased membership fees or private-label sales. However, the recent margin compression and insider selling suggest that these potential upsides are speculative at best. The recent decline in net income in the latest quarter further undermines the stability narrative and suggests that the current price is more reflective of market optimism than of fundamental strength.