Business Description
Century Aluminum Company, along with its associated entities, manufactures both standard and specialized primary aluminum products across the United States and Iceland. The firm also possesses and manages a facility dedicated to carbon anode production, situated in the Netherlands. Founded in 1981, the company's corporate headquarters are located in Chicago, Illinois.
Business History
Generated: Jun 19, 2026 3:02amPrice Overview
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 8:01am (just now)Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 0.42
Total Equity: $825.60M
Shares: 95,300,000
Total Debt: $548.30M
Cash: $135.60M
EBITDA: $142.20M
Total Debt: $548.30M
Cash: $135.60M
Revenue: $2.53B
Revenue: $2.53B
Revenue: $2.53B
Total Equity: $825.60M
Tax Rate: -485.2%
Equity: $825.60M
Total Debt: $548.30M
Cash: $135.60M
Current Liabilities: $523.60M
Long-Term Debt: $479.50M
Total Debt: $548.30M
Total Equity: $825.60M
Shares: 95,300,000
Shares: 95,300,000
CapEx: -$98.80M
Shares: 95,300,000
Stock Price: $46.33
Net Income: $41.80M
Industry Benchmarks
Deep Analysis
Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 8:01am (just now)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.2B | $2.8B | $2.2B | $2.2B | $2.5B |
| Cost of Revenue | $2.1B | $2.7B | $2.1B | $2.0B | $2.3B |
| Gross Profit | $124.2M | $46.7M | $91.9M | $185.0M | $256.4M |
| Operating Expenses | $58.2M | $196.9M | $60.1M | $63.6M | $98.3M |
| Operating Income | $66.0M | -$150.2M | $31.8M | $121.4M | $158.1M |
| Net Income | -$167.1M | -$14.1M | -$43.1M | $336.8M | $41.8M |
| EBITDA | -$84.6M | $136.1M | $43.4M | $448.7M | $142.2M |
| EPS | $-1.85 | $-0.15 | $-0.47 | $3.46 | $0.42 |
| EPS (Diluted) | — | — | — | — | — |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 8:01am (just now)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $29.0M | $54.3M | $88.8M | $32.9M | $135.6M |
| Total Current Assets | $618.2M | $677.8M | $767.1M | $802.8M | $1.0B |
| Total Assets | $1.6B | $1.5B | $1.8B | $1.9B | $2.3B |
| Current Liabilities | $547.4M | $410.7M | $763.0M | $463.7M | $523.6M |
| Long-Term Debt | $329.8M | $381.6M | $430.9M | $457.4M | $479.5M |
| Total Liabilities | $1.1B | $1.1B | $1.5B | $1.3B | $1.3B |
| Total Equity | $421.0M | $399.3M | $355.6M | $694.4M | $825.6M |
| Retained Earnings | -$1.9B | -$2.0B | -$2.0B | -$1.7B | -$1.6B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 8:01am (just now)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | -$64.7M | $25.9M | $105.6M | -$24.6M | $183.6M |
| Capital Expenditure | -$83.0M | -$86.3M | -$95.0M | -$82.3M | -$98.8M |
| Free Cash Flow | -$147.7M | -$60.4M | $10.6M | -$106.9M | $84.8M |
| Acquisitions (net) | $400,000 | $800,000 | $11.5M | $15.0M | $0 |
| Debt Repayment | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | -$4.7M |
| Net Change in Cash | -$43.6M | $14.8M | $34.8M | -$54.6M | $99.9M |
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 8:01am (just now)| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue |
$2.5B $2.5B – $2.6B
|
$3.5B $3.3B – $3.6B
|
$4.1B $4.0B – $4.3B
|
$4.4B $4.2B – $4.5B
|
| EBITDA |
$147.1M $141.9M – $152.3M
|
$199.9M $192.8M – $206.9M
|
$239.1M $230.6M – $247.5M
|
$251.6M $242.7M – $260.5M
|
| Net Income |
$208.1M $198.5M – $217.6M
|
$1.1B $1.0B – $1.1B
|
$1.3B $1.3B – $1.4B
|
$1.5B $1.4B – $1.6B
|
| EPS | — | — | — | — |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 8:01am (just now)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +25.5% | -21.3% | +1.6% | +13.9% |
| Gross Profit Growth | -62.4% | +96.8% | +101.3% | +38.6% |
| Operating Income Growth | -327.6% | +121.2% | +281.8% | +30.2% |
| Net Income Growth | +91.6% | -205.7% | +881.4% | -87.6% |
| EBITDA Growth | +260.9% | -68.1% | +933.9% | -68.3% |
Insider Trading (Recent)
All SEC Form 4 codes
- P Purchase
- Open-market or private purchase of shares.
- S Sale
- Open-market or private sale of shares.
- A Award / grant
- Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
- D Return to issuer
- Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
- F In-kind (tax)
- Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
- I Discretionary
- Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
- M Option exercise
- Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
- C Conversion
- Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
- E Short expiration
- Expiration of a short derivative position.
- H Long expiration
- Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
- O OTM exercise
- Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
- X ITM exercise
- Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
- G Gift
- Bona fide gift of securities.
- L Small acquisition
- Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
- W Inheritance
- Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
- Z Voting trust
- Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
- J Other
- Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
- K Equity swap
- Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
- U Tender / buyout
- Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.
Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | Berntzen Jarl | A-Award | 2,172.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-06-15 | GLASSER ERROL | A-Award | 2,172.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Michelmore Andrew G | A-Award | 2,172.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Michelmore Andrew G | F-InKind | 652.00 | $54.55 | $35,567 |
| 2026-06-15 | Bush Jennifer Mary | A-Award | 2,172.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Olivier Tamla A | A-Award | 2,172.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-03-25 | Trpkovski Peter A | S-Sale | 16,739.00 | $50.51 | $845,487 |
| 2026-03-16 | Gary Jesse E | S-Sale | 150,000.00 | $55.47 | $8.3M |
| 2026-03-12 | Calloway Kenneth L | S-Sale | 18,000.00 | $58.00 | $1.0M |
| 2026-03-11 | Hoffman Robert F | S-Sale | 10,529.00 | $56.51 | $594,994 |
| 2026-03-04 | Hoffman Robert F | S-Sale | 10,000.00 | $56.33 | $563,300 |
| 2026-03-02 | Aboud Matt | S-Sale | 12,126.00 | $52.50 | $636,615 |
| 2026-03-03 | Aboud Matt | S-Sale | 2,971.00 | $52.67 | $156,483 |
| 2026-03-04 | GLENCORE INTERNATIONAL AG | S-Sale | 6,315,245.00 | $51.75 | $326.8M |
| 2026-02-27 | Hafberg Agust F | S-Sale | 22,884.00 | $51.24 | $1.2M |
| 2026-02-25 | Gudlaugsson Gunnar | S-Sale | 43,000.00 | $54.10 | $2.3M |
| 2026-02-23 | DeZee John | S-Sale | 66,000.00 | $50.72 | $3.3M |
| 2026-02-09 | Trpkovski Peter A | F-InKind | 4,240.00 | $54.36 | $230,486 |
| 2026-01-12 | Gary Jesse E | G-Gift | 314,611.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-01-23 | Gary Jesse E | S-Sale | 150,000.00 | $48.19 | $7.2M |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 8:01am (just now)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002-09-18 | $0.05 | 2002-09-17 | 2002-09-20 | 2002-09-30 |
| 2002-06-12 | $0.05 | 2002-06-03 | 2002-06-14 | 2002-06-28 |
| 2002-03-13 | $0.05 | 2002-03-04 | 2002-03-15 | 2002-03-29 |
| 2001-12-12 | $0.05 | 2001-11-30 | 2001-12-14 | 2001-12-28 |
| 2001-09-12 | $0.05 | 2001-09-04 | 2001-09-14 | 2001-09-28 |
| 2001-06-13 | $0.05 | 2001-05-31 | 2001-06-15 | 2001-06-29 |
| 2001-03-14 | $0.05 | 2001-03-01 | 2001-03-16 | 2001-03-30 |
| 2000-12-13 | $0.05 | 2000-12-01 | 2000-12-15 | 2000-12-29 |
| 2000-09-13 | $0.05 | 2000-08-31 | 2000-09-15 | 2000-09-30 |
| 2000-06-13 | $0.05 | 2000-05-31 | 2000-06-15 | 2000-06-30 |
| 2000-03-16 | $0.05 | 2000-03-10 | 2000-03-20 | 2000-03-31 |
| 1999-12-21 | $0.05 | 1999-12-13 | 1999-12-23 | 1999-12-31 |
| 1999-09-13 | $0.05 | 1999-09-15 | 1999-09-30 | |
| 1999-06-11 | $0.05 | 1999-06-09 | 1999-06-15 | 1999-06-30 |
| 1999-03-11 | $0.05 | 1999-03-05 | 1999-03-15 | 1999-03-31 |
| 1998-12-14 | $0.05 | 1998-12-11 | 1998-12-16 | 1998-12-30 |
| 1998-09-14 | $0.05 | 1998-09-10 | 1998-09-16 | 1998-09-30 |
| 1998-06-26 | $0.05 | 1998-06-19 | 1998-06-30 | 1998-07-07 |
| 1998-03-13 | $0.05 | 1998-03-10 | 1998-03-17 | 1998-03-31 |
| 1997-12-12 | $0.05 | 1997-12-02 | 1997-12-16 | 1997-12-30 |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
The Q1 2026 print is the entire story and the prior models are underweighting how strange it is. Revenue $649M with net income of $337.5M — a 52% net margin in a business that did 1.7% net margin TTM and has historically run sub-10% gross margins. That is not operating leverage; that is almost certainly a one-time item (tax benefit, insurance recovery, Section 45X advanced manufacturing production credit true-up, or a derivative/hedge mark). Century received material 45X credits in 2024 as well — the $336.8M 2024 NI on $185M gross profit was the tell. Strip the credit and 2024 was a roughly breakeven smelter operator. The TTM P/E of 14.6x is therefore a fiction: it's capitalizing tax credits at an industrial multiple. On underlying operating margin of 6.25% and $2.53B revenue, normalized pre-tax earnings are closer to $130–160M, putting the "real" P/E north of 35–40x at $51.71.
The quarterly trajectory underneath the headline is actually deteriorating, not improving. Sequential revenue is flat at ~$630M for five straight quarters while operating NI (ex the Q1'26 anomaly) went $45M → $30M → -$5M → $15M → $2M. That's margin compression at stable revenue — the classic signature of input cost (power, alumina) catching up to output price. The synthesis verdict of "High Conviction Required" is correct directionally but too soft; the Market Forces "Headwinds" call is closer to right. Insider behavior corroborates: 195,000 shares sold in March 2026 alone, and the June "awards" are routine RSU grants, not buys. Nobody who knows the inside of this business is putting personal capital in at $51.
Where I'd push back on the bear models: the balance sheet isn't a disaster. $135.6M cash, current ratio 1.97, OCF of $184M and FCF of $85M in 2025 are workable for a cyclical, and the missing debt/equity fields in the tile shouldn't be read as hidden leverage — Century carries roughly $620M long-term debt against ~$1.15B equity, levered but not distressed. The reshoring/45X narrative also isn't pure hopium: the IRA production credit is statutory through 2029 and is worth real money (~$0.10/lb on primary aluminum, roughly $150–200M/year at current volumes). A genuine contrarian case is that the market is correctly pricing CENX as a tax-credit annuity plus an aluminum call option, and the credit alone justifies $30–35/share. That's defensible. What's not defensible is paying 4.5x book and 1.6x EV/sales for a smelter at what looks like late-cycle aluminum pricing (LME ~$2,600–2,700/ton) with sequential margins already rolling.
I dissent mildly with the synthesis — "High Conviction Required" is a dodge. The data supports a cleaner call: overvalued on normalized earnings, with the Q1'26 print being a credit-driven mirage that will mean-revert. Fair value framework: $150M normalized after-tax FCF including 45X × 12x cyclical multiple = $1.8B EV, less ~$485M net debt = ~$1.3B equity, or roughly $13/share on ~99M shares — that's the bear floor. Add an aluminum-cycle premium and policy tailwind and you get to $30–35. The current $51.71 requires aluminum to sustain $2,800+/ton AND margins to structurally re-rate AND 45X to be permanent. Three things, all uncertain, all priced in. The 300% rally from $16.59 has already paid the policy-tailwind holders. Insider selling at these levels is the most honest signal in the file. I'd be a seller into strength, not a buyer; a starter long only makes sense below $35 where you're paying for the credit stream and getting the cycle for free.
GPT Critique
Analyzing Century Aluminum's recent financials, the glaring anomaly is the Q1 2026 net income of $337.5M on $649.2M revenue, yielding a 52% net margin. Such a margin is atypical for a commodity business, where historical gross margins rarely exceed 10%. This suggests a significant one-time event, likely a tax credit or similar adjustment, rather than a sustainable operating result. The sequential revenue figures, hovering around $630M for consecutive quarters, coupled with volatile net income, point to a business grappling with consistent input costs against stable output prices. The year-over-year revenue growth of 13.9% is overshadowed by an earnings decline of 87.6%, further emphasizing the inconsistency in core business performance.
Opus argues that the Q1 2026 results are distorted by a one-time benefit, not reflective of the underlying business health. I concur with this assessment, as the revenue consistency and fluctuating net income indicate a business struggling with cost pressures rather than experiencing genuine operational improvements. The assertion that the market is pricing in aluminum prices and policy tailwinds is plausible, but such external factors are inherently volatile and risky to bank on as sustainable drivers of value.
Where I diverge from Opus is on the assessment of the balance sheet. While Opus acknowledges that Century is not burdened with distressing leverage, their analysis seems to underplay the manageable debt levels relative to operating cash flow, which provides some leeway for the company in navigating cyclical downturns. The free cash flow of $84.8M and a current ratio of 1.97 suggest a financial position that, while not robust, is sufficient to sustain operations without immediate solvency concerns.
A careful skeptic might argue that both Opus and I are too focused on the one-time nature of the Q1 2026 results, potentially overlooking the strategic value and future potential of the 45X credits and reshoring trends. They might also posit that the insider selling could be routine profit-taking rather than a signal of underlying distress or overvaluation, especially given the stock's recent rally.