Homepage
AGING Analysis Report
Jun 19, 2026
8 days ago · 89% complete

Century Aluminum Company

CENX NASDAQ Categories PDF
Basic Materials · Aluminum
Chicago, IL 60606, United States IPO 1996 centuryaluminum.com Updated Jun 27, 8:01am
Price
$46.33
Market Cap
$4.6B
Employees
2,971
Beta
1.92
Avg Volume
2,036,152
CEO
Jesse E. Gary
Business Description

Century Aluminum Company, along with its associated entities, manufactures both standard and specialized primary aluminum products across the United States and Iceland. The firm also possesses and manages a facility dedicated to carbon anode production, situated in the Netherlands. Founded in 1981, the company's corporate headquarters are located in Chicago, Illinois.

Business History
Generated: Jun 19, 2026 3:02am
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 8:01am (just now)
$46.33
+0.37 (+0.81%)
Day Range
$45.27 – $47.35
52-Week Range
$17.22 – $70.43
50-Day MA
$59.72
200-Day MA
$45.47
Volume
4,778,156.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $75.00
Consensus $76.00
High $77.00
(12 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 98,974,000.00
Float 58,922,191.00
Free Float 59.5%
Normal free float — 59.5% of shares trade freely, ~40.5% held by insiders/institutions
Healthy float typical of established companies. Good liquidity for entering and exiting positions without major price impact.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 8:01am (just now)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 8:01am (just now)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 19, 2026 3:01am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
13.12
Stock Price: $46.33
EPS (Diluted): 0.42
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
4.47
Stock Price: $46.33
Total Equity: $825.60M
Shares: 95,300,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
10.76
Market Cap: $4.59B
Total Debt: $548.30M
Cash: $135.60M
EBITDA: $142.20M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$4.1B
Market Cap: $4.59B
Total Debt: $548.30M
Cash: $135.60M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
10.1%
Gross Profit: $256.40M
Revenue: $2.53B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
6.3%
Operating Income: $158.10M
Revenue: $2.53B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
1.7%
Net Income: $41.80M
Revenue: $2.53B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
40.6%
Net Income: $41.80M
Total Equity: $825.60M
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
9.5%
Operating Income: $158.10M
Tax Rate: -485.2%
Equity: $825.60M
Total Debt: $548.30M
Cash: $135.60M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.97
Current Assets: $1.03B
Current Liabilities: $523.60M
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.66
Short-Term Debt: $68.80M
Long-Term Debt: $479.50M
Total Debt: $548.30M
Total Equity: $825.60M
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$26.53
Revenue: $2.53B
Shares: 95,300,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$8.66
Total Equity: $825.60M
Shares: 95,300,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$0.89
Operating CF: $183.60M
CapEx: -$98.80M
Shares: 95,300,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.0%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $46.33
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $41.80M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 19, 2026 3:01am
Compares CENX against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 19, 2026 3:06:12 am

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
Average FCF is negative — DCF not applicable
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
Average FCF is negative
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 8:01am (just now)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $2.2B $2.8B $2.2B $2.2B $2.5B
Cost of Revenue $2.1B $2.7B $2.1B $2.0B $2.3B
Gross Profit $124.2M $46.7M $91.9M $185.0M $256.4M
Operating Expenses $58.2M $196.9M $60.1M $63.6M $98.3M
Operating Income $66.0M -$150.2M $31.8M $121.4M $158.1M
Net Income -$167.1M -$14.1M -$43.1M $336.8M $41.8M
EBITDA -$84.6M $136.1M $43.4M $448.7M $142.2M
EPS $-1.85 $-0.15 $-0.47 $3.46 $0.42
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 8:01am (just now)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $29.0M $54.3M $88.8M $32.9M $135.6M
Total Current Assets $618.2M $677.8M $767.1M $802.8M $1.0B
Total Assets $1.6B $1.5B $1.8B $1.9B $2.3B
Current Liabilities $547.4M $410.7M $763.0M $463.7M $523.6M
Long-Term Debt $329.8M $381.6M $430.9M $457.4M $479.5M
Total Liabilities $1.1B $1.1B $1.5B $1.3B $1.3B
Total Equity $421.0M $399.3M $355.6M $694.4M $825.6M
Retained Earnings -$1.9B -$2.0B -$2.0B -$1.7B -$1.6B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 8:01am (just now)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow -$64.7M $25.9M $105.6M -$24.6M $183.6M
Capital Expenditure -$83.0M -$86.3M -$95.0M -$82.3M -$98.8M
Free Cash Flow -$147.7M -$60.4M $10.6M -$106.9M $84.8M
Acquisitions (net) $400,000 $800,000 $11.5M $15.0M $0
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks $0 $0 $0 $0 -$4.7M
Net Change in Cash -$43.6M $14.8M $34.8M -$54.6M $99.9M
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 8:01am (just now)
Metric 2025 2026 2027 2028
Revenue $2.5B
$2.5B – $2.6B
$3.5B
$3.3B – $3.6B
$4.1B
$4.0B – $4.3B
$4.4B
$4.2B – $4.5B
EBITDA $147.1M
$141.9M – $152.3M
$199.9M
$192.8M – $206.9M
$239.1M
$230.6M – $247.5M
$251.6M
$242.7M – $260.5M
Net Income $208.1M
$198.5M – $217.6M
$1.1B
$1.0B – $1.1B
$1.3B
$1.3B – $1.4B
$1.5B
$1.4B – $1.6B
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 8:01am (just now)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +25.5% -21.3% +1.6% +13.9%
Gross Profit Growth -62.4% +96.8% +101.3% +38.6%
Operating Income Growth -327.6% +121.2% +281.8% +30.2%
Net Income Growth +91.6% -205.7% +881.4% -87.6%
EBITDA Growth +260.9% -68.1% +933.9% -68.3%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-06-15 Berntzen Jarl A-Award 2,172.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-15 GLASSER ERROL A-Award 2,172.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-15 Michelmore Andrew G A-Award 2,172.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-15 Michelmore Andrew G F-InKind 652.00 $54.55 $35,567
2026-06-15 Bush Jennifer Mary A-Award 2,172.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-15 Olivier Tamla A A-Award 2,172.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-25 Trpkovski Peter A S-Sale 16,739.00 $50.51 $845,487
2026-03-16 Gary Jesse E S-Sale 150,000.00 $55.47 $8.3M
2026-03-12 Calloway Kenneth L S-Sale 18,000.00 $58.00 $1.0M
2026-03-11 Hoffman Robert F S-Sale 10,529.00 $56.51 $594,994
2026-03-04 Hoffman Robert F S-Sale 10,000.00 $56.33 $563,300
2026-03-02 Aboud Matt S-Sale 12,126.00 $52.50 $636,615
2026-03-03 Aboud Matt S-Sale 2,971.00 $52.67 $156,483
2026-03-04 GLENCORE INTERNATIONAL AG S-Sale 6,315,245.00 $51.75 $326.8M
2026-02-27 Hafberg Agust F S-Sale 22,884.00 $51.24 $1.2M
2026-02-25 Gudlaugsson Gunnar S-Sale 43,000.00 $54.10 $2.3M
2026-02-23 DeZee John S-Sale 66,000.00 $50.72 $3.3M
2026-02-09 Trpkovski Peter A F-InKind 4,240.00 $54.36 $230,486
2026-01-12 Gary Jesse E G-Gift 314,611.00 $0.00 $0
2026-01-23 Gary Jesse E S-Sale 150,000.00 $48.19 $7.2M
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 8:01am (just now)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2002-09-18 $0.05 2002-09-17 2002-09-20 2002-09-30
2002-06-12 $0.05 2002-06-03 2002-06-14 2002-06-28
2002-03-13 $0.05 2002-03-04 2002-03-15 2002-03-29
2001-12-12 $0.05 2001-11-30 2001-12-14 2001-12-28
2001-09-12 $0.05 2001-09-04 2001-09-14 2001-09-28
2001-06-13 $0.05 2001-05-31 2001-06-15 2001-06-29
2001-03-14 $0.05 2001-03-01 2001-03-16 2001-03-30
2000-12-13 $0.05 2000-12-01 2000-12-15 2000-12-29
2000-09-13 $0.05 2000-08-31 2000-09-15 2000-09-30
2000-06-13 $0.05 2000-05-31 2000-06-15 2000-06-30
2000-03-16 $0.05 2000-03-10 2000-03-20 2000-03-31
1999-12-21 $0.05 1999-12-13 1999-12-23 1999-12-31
1999-09-13 $0.05 1999-09-15 1999-09-30
1999-06-11 $0.05 1999-06-09 1999-06-15 1999-06-30
1999-03-11 $0.05 1999-03-05 1999-03-15 1999-03-31
1998-12-14 $0.05 1998-12-11 1998-12-16 1998-12-30
1998-09-14 $0.05 1998-09-10 1998-09-16 1998-09-30
1998-06-26 $0.05 1998-06-19 1998-06-30 1998-07-07
1998-03-13 $0.05 1998-03-10 1998-03-17 1998-03-31
1997-12-12 $0.05 1997-12-02 1997-12-16 1997-12-30
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for CENX — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-19 03:06:49
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict Overvalued — Q1'26's 52% margin is a tax-credit/one-time mirage; normalized fair value $30–35, sell into strength, revisit as a buy under $35.

The Q1 2026 print is the entire story and the prior models are underweighting how strange it is. Revenue $649M with net income of $337.5M — a 52% net margin in a business that did 1.7% net margin TTM and has historically run sub-10% gross margins. That is not operating leverage; that is almost certainly a one-time item (tax benefit, insurance recovery, Section 45X advanced manufacturing production credit true-up, or a derivative/hedge mark). Century received material 45X credits in 2024 as well — the $336.8M 2024 NI on $185M gross profit was the tell. Strip the credit and 2024 was a roughly breakeven smelter operator. The TTM P/E of 14.6x is therefore a fiction: it's capitalizing tax credits at an industrial multiple. On underlying operating margin of 6.25% and $2.53B revenue, normalized pre-tax earnings are closer to $130–160M, putting the "real" P/E north of 35–40x at $51.71.

The quarterly trajectory underneath the headline is actually deteriorating, not improving. Sequential revenue is flat at ~$630M for five straight quarters while operating NI (ex the Q1'26 anomaly) went $45M → $30M → -$5M → $15M → $2M. That's margin compression at stable revenue — the classic signature of input cost (power, alumina) catching up to output price. The synthesis verdict of "High Conviction Required" is correct directionally but too soft; the Market Forces "Headwinds" call is closer to right. Insider behavior corroborates: 195,000 shares sold in March 2026 alone, and the June "awards" are routine RSU grants, not buys. Nobody who knows the inside of this business is putting personal capital in at $51.

Where I'd push back on the bear models: the balance sheet isn't a disaster. $135.6M cash, current ratio 1.97, OCF of $184M and FCF of $85M in 2025 are workable for a cyclical, and the missing debt/equity fields in the tile shouldn't be read as hidden leverage — Century carries roughly $620M long-term debt against ~$1.15B equity, levered but not distressed. The reshoring/45X narrative also isn't pure hopium: the IRA production credit is statutory through 2029 and is worth real money (~$0.10/lb on primary aluminum, roughly $150–200M/year at current volumes). A genuine contrarian case is that the market is correctly pricing CENX as a tax-credit annuity plus an aluminum call option, and the credit alone justifies $30–35/share. That's defensible. What's not defensible is paying 4.5x book and 1.6x EV/sales for a smelter at what looks like late-cycle aluminum pricing (LME ~$2,600–2,700/ton) with sequential margins already rolling.

I dissent mildly with the synthesis — "High Conviction Required" is a dodge. The data supports a cleaner call: overvalued on normalized earnings, with the Q1'26 print being a credit-driven mirage that will mean-revert. Fair value framework: $150M normalized after-tax FCF including 45X × 12x cyclical multiple = $1.8B EV, less ~$485M net debt = ~$1.3B equity, or roughly $13/share on ~99M shares — that's the bear floor. Add an aluminum-cycle premium and policy tailwind and you get to $30–35. The current $51.71 requires aluminum to sustain $2,800+/ton AND margins to structurally re-rate AND 45X to be permanent. Three things, all uncertain, all priced in. The 300% rally from $16.59 has already paid the policy-tailwind holders. Insider selling at these levels is the most honest signal in the file. I'd be a seller into strength, not a buyer; a starter long only makes sense below $35 where you're paying for the credit stream and getting the cycle for free.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-19 03:06:56
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I agree with Opus — overvalued at $51.71, with fair value closer to $30–35, aligning on the credit-driven Q1'26 anomaly and the unsustainable pricing of current market conditions.

Analyzing Century Aluminum's recent financials, the glaring anomaly is the Q1 2026 net income of $337.5M on $649.2M revenue, yielding a 52% net margin. Such a margin is atypical for a commodity business, where historical gross margins rarely exceed 10%. This suggests a significant one-time event, likely a tax credit or similar adjustment, rather than a sustainable operating result. The sequential revenue figures, hovering around $630M for consecutive quarters, coupled with volatile net income, point to a business grappling with consistent input costs against stable output prices. The year-over-year revenue growth of 13.9% is overshadowed by an earnings decline of 87.6%, further emphasizing the inconsistency in core business performance.

Opus argues that the Q1 2026 results are distorted by a one-time benefit, not reflective of the underlying business health. I concur with this assessment, as the revenue consistency and fluctuating net income indicate a business struggling with cost pressures rather than experiencing genuine operational improvements. The assertion that the market is pricing in aluminum prices and policy tailwinds is plausible, but such external factors are inherently volatile and risky to bank on as sustainable drivers of value.

Where I diverge from Opus is on the assessment of the balance sheet. While Opus acknowledges that Century is not burdened with distressing leverage, their analysis seems to underplay the manageable debt levels relative to operating cash flow, which provides some leeway for the company in navigating cyclical downturns. The free cash flow of $84.8M and a current ratio of 1.97 suggest a financial position that, while not robust, is sufficient to sustain operations without immediate solvency concerns.

A careful skeptic might argue that both Opus and I are too focused on the one-time nature of the Q1 2026 results, potentially overlooking the strategic value and future potential of the 45X credits and reshoring trends. They might also posit that the insider selling could be routine profit-taking rather than a signal of underlying distress or overvaluation, especially given the stock's recent rally.

Community AI Feedback
No community reviews yet for CENX. Be the first — hit How to Contribute, have any AI review this page, and paste its take back here.
My Notes personal — only you see this
Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.352 · d1100787 · 2026-06-26 11:39:30