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AGING Analysis Report
Jun 15, 2026
12 days ago · 100% complete · +8 refreshed

CNH Industrial N.V.

CNH NYSE Categories PDF
Industrials · Agricultural - Machinery
Basildon, SS14 3AD, United Kingdom IPO 1996 cnhindustrial.com Updated Jun 15, 3:00am
Price
$10.60
Market Cap
$13.1B
Employees
35,850
Beta
1.23
Avg Volume
15,415,336
CEO
Gerrit Andreas Marx
Business Description

CNH Industrial N.V. operates as a multinational producer of heavy-duty industrial machinery, specializing in a diverse portfolio that includes both agricultural and construction equipment. A testament to its legacy, the highly recognized Case IH brand has been a trusted partner to farmers for generations. The company's reach is extensive, supported by a robust global distribution network comprising over 3,600 dealer and distribution outlets. To boost accessibility and sales, CNH also operates a dedicated financial services division, offering retail financing directly to end-customers and crucial wholesale funding to its widespread dealer base.

Business History
Generated: Jun 15, 2026 3:02am
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 15, 2026 3:00am (12d ago)
$10.60
+0.24 (+2.32%)
Day Range
$10.45 – $10.78
52-Week Range
$9.00 – $14.27
50-Day MA
$10.63
200-Day MA
$10.68
Volume
9,326,253.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $10.50
Consensus $13.09
High $16.00
(23 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 1,239,950,537.00
Float 869,252,068.00
Free Float 70.1%
Normal free float — 70.1% of shares trade freely, ~29.9% held by insiders/institutions
Healthy float typical of established companies. Good liquidity for entering and exiting positions without major price impact.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 15, 2026 3:06am (12d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 15, 2026 3:06am (12d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 15, 2026 3:01am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
34.08
Stock Price: $10.60
EPS (Diluted): 0.41
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
1.49
Stock Price: $10.60
Total Equity: $7.73B
Shares: 1,251,000,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
14.09
Market Cap: $13.14B
Total Debt: $26.85B
Cash: $3.23B
EBITDA: $2.87B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$35.3B
Market Cap: $13.14B
Total Debt: $26.85B
Cash: $3.23B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
31.4%
Gross Profit: $5.69B
Revenue: $18.10B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
15.4%
Operating Income: $2.79B
Revenue: $18.10B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
2.8%
Net Income: $510.00M
Revenue: $18.10B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
5.0%
Net Income: $510.00M
Total Equity: $7.73B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
5.8%
Operating Income: $2.79B
Tax Rate: 26.7%
Equity: $7.73B
Total Debt: $26.85B
Cash: $3.23B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
7.75
Current Assets: $31.41B
Current Liabilities: $4.05B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
3.47
Short-Term Debt: $89.00M
Long-Term Debt: $26.76B
Total Debt: $26.85B
Total Equity: $7.73B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$14.47
Revenue: $18.10B
Shares: 1,251,000,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$6.18
Total Equity: $7.73B
Shares: 1,251,000,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$1.59
Operating CF: $2.54B
CapEx: -$543.00M
Shares: 1,251,000,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
2.9%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $10.60
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
—
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $510.00M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 15, 2026 3:01am
Compares CNH against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · three lenses
Three separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-06-15 03:08:11
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality cyclical — pass at $10.60, buy list below $8.25 7/10
Decent cyclical franchise (+22 quality) being quoted ~40% above deserved value (-75 valuation) mid-downturn — right business, wrong price.
The cruxWhether the ag cycle bottoms before the stock re-rates down to its $7.50 fair value anchor.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from CNH's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionShare Count Shrinking
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The three lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+22
Mixed
edge √Σ 121 · risk √Σ 100 · conf 6/10

CNH is a mature, capital-intensive ag-machinery business living through a clear cyclical downturn: revenue has fallen from $24.69B (2023) to $18.10B (2025), a ~27% peak-to-trough decline, and operating margin compressed from 20.0% to 15.4% while net income collapsed from $2.28B to $510M. Gross margin held up reasonably well (31.4% vs 32.7% peak), suggesting the damage is largely volume/operating-leverage driven rather than pricing destruction — consistent with a normal ag cycle. Importantly, free cash flow actually inflected positively to $2.00B in 2025 as working capital (likely dealer inventory/floorplan) unwound, more than covering the depressed $510M net income (OCF/NI 1.92x).

Earnings quality screens clean: accruals -0.9% of assets, Beneish M -2.69, and FCF > net income in the trough year argue the reported numbers are real. Per-share discipline is genuine — diluted shares dropped from 1.36B (2021) to 1.25B (2025), a -2.1% CAGR, with SBC effectively 0% of revenue, which is rare and a real strength. The major caveat is the balance sheet: net debt of ~$23.6B against $3.23B liquid cash and a grey-zone Altman Z of 1.98. Much of that debt is almost certainly captive-finance receivables (CNH Capital), not corporate leverage, but the raw figures still mean this is a business with a constraint, not a cushion, going through a downturn.

Strengths 4
m70
Genuine per-share discipline
Diluted shares shrank from 1.36B to 1.25B (-2.1% CAGR) with SBC ~0% of revenue — rare for an industrial, and means buybacks are real net retirements, not SBC offsets.
m65
Clean earnings quality
Accruals -0.9% of assets, Beneish M -2.69, OCF/NI 1.92x in 2025. No mechanical red flags; the trough earnings appear conservatively stated, not propped up.
m60
Counter-cyclical cash generation
FCF swung from -$288M (2023) and -$442M (2022) during the build phase to +$2.00B in 2025 as working capital released — typical and healthy ag-cycle behavior.
m45
Gross margin resilience
GM only fell from 32.7% to 31.4% despite a 27% revenue decline from peak — pricing power and product mix appear intact; damage is operating leverage, not franchise erosion.
Concerns 4
m70
Severe cyclical earnings collapse
Net income fell 78% from $2.28B (2023) to $510M (2025); op margin from 20.0% to 15.4%. This is a deeply cyclical business and the trough is not yet clearly behind it.
m55
Heavy gross debt load, grey-zone Z-score
Net debt -$23.6B and Altman Z 1.98 (grey). Likely dominated by CNH Capital finance receivables, but it leaves no balance-sheet cushion and amplifies cycle risk.
m40
Revenue still declining into 2025
Top line fell again from $19.84B (2024) to $18.10B (2025) — the down-cycle has not bottomed in the data provided, so 2026 earnings power is uncertain.
m20
Insider tape is non-directional
Recent tape is all A-Award grants on a single date; the noted P/S activity ($700K buys vs $644K sells) is small and gives no real signal.
This is a decent but unspectacular cyclical industrial — not a fortress, not a disaster. What I genuinely like is the per-share discipline (shares actually shrinking with near-zero SBC is rare and real) and the fact that earnings quality screens clean even in the trough, with FCF rising as profits fall — classic healthy ag-cycle behavior. What keeps me from calling it Strong is that this is a deeply cyclical, finance-company-attached business: net income fell 78% peak-to-trough, the balance sheet has $23.6B of net debt with a grey-zone Z-score, and revenue is still falling. The franchise (Case IH, New Holland) is durable and the gross margin held, but it's a Mixed-quality business — a competent operator of a cyclical asset, not a compounder.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • Split of the $23.6B debt between Industrial and Financial Services segments — industrial-only net debt is the true leverage figure
  • Quality and delinquency trends in CNH Capital's finance receivable book given the ag downturn
  • Dealer inventory levels and whether the FCF boost in 2025 is sustainable or a one-time working-capital release
  • Order book / backlog commentary for 2026 to gauge whether revenue has troughed
  • Capital allocation framework: buyback authorization size and any pause given cycle conditions
  • Customer/geographic concentration (North America row-crop exposure) and tariff/trade impacts
Valuation / Mispricing
-75
Rich
edge √Σ 25 · risk √Σ 100 · conf 5/10
Price $10.60 vs deserved ~$7.50 — roughly 40% premium to FV, no margin of safety. attractive below $8.25

The e2e synthesis pins composite and signal-adjusted fair value at $7.52 against a $10.60 price — a ~29% premium to deserved value, or put differently, you need ~40% upside from FV to justify today's quote. Earnings quality screens clean (so no haircut warranted) and the business is a decent cyclical with real per-share discipline, but the company-quality lens explicitly flags revenue and margins 'rolling over hard.' Paying above fair value for a cyclical mid-down-cycle is the textbook setup for disappointment.

The steady-compounder bull narrative is doing heavy lifting here: to justify $10.60 you need to believe trough earnings are already in, dealer-network moat translates to durable mid-teens ROIC through the cycle, and ag-equipment demand re-accelerates on EM mechanization. The bear case — lumpy cyclical tied to grain prices and credit, debt-heavy balance sheet — is more consistent with the $7.52 anchor. I don't see a margin of safety; I see the market crediting CNH for a recovery that hasn't shown up in the numbers yet.

This isn't an obvious short — the quality is real and buybacks shrink the float — but it is not cheap. Fairly Valued would be generous; Rich is the honest read.

Cheap signals 1
m25
Clean earnings + real buybacks
Earnings quality score 2, FCF rising as reported earnings fall, near-zero SBC, actual share count shrinking. This supports the deserved value but doesn't override a 40% premium to it.
Rich / priced-in 4
m70
Price ~40% above composite FV
Composite and signal-adjusted FV both land at $7.52 vs $10.60 price. Even allowing for method conservatism, that's a ~29% premium to deserved value with zero margin of safety.
m55
Paying mid-cycle for trough cyclical
Quality lens flags revenue and margins 'rolling over hard.' Buying a cyclical above FV while earnings are still declining is the classic way to lose money on industrials.
m40
Bull case requires heroic recovery
To justify $10.60 you need a sharp ag-cycle inflection plus durable mid-teens through-cycle returns — neither is visible in current numbers; debt load and credit-tied demand are real overhangs.
m20
FV anchor is internally consistent
Composite and signal-adjusted both at $7.52 — no runaway method to discount. The $7.52 anchor looks credible, not an outlier I can dismiss.
I can't call this cheap with a straight face — I'm being asked to pay $10.60 for something the composite says is worth $7.50, while the business is mid-decline. The buybacks and clean accounting are nice, but they don't conjure a margin of safety. I'd want to see the price in the $8s before this becomes interesting, and ideally low-$8s with evidence the cycle is bottoming. Today, it's Rich.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • FY guidance and order book trajectory — is the trough actually in?
  • Industrial net debt and Financial Services receivables credit quality
  • Gross/operating margin walk vs prior down-cycles to gauge how deep this trough goes
  • Buyback pace and capital allocation commentary on next earnings call
General Sentiment
-82
Headwind
tail √Σ 20 · head √Σ 102 · conf 6/10

CNH carries a 1.23 beta into a tape that is technically neutral but tilted defensive (VIX in the upper half of its range, 10y at 4.48%, market off its highs). For a cyclical ag-machinery name with no compounder narrative to defend it, that environment is mildly punishing rather than benign - the stock has no story bid to offset macro chop. Momentum confirms it: -14% CAGR and still bleeding (-8.8% recent), meaning sellers have the tape and buyers have no catalyst to rally around. The narrative lens is the key tell. Intensity is 'minimal' and the archetype claim (steady compounder) is being actively rejected by price action; the market is treating CNH as what the bear case says it is - a lumpy cyclical tied to grain prices and farm credit, not a moat story. With grain prices soft and dealer inventory a known overhang, there is no narrative tailwind to lean on. Analyst tone is the classic stale-bull divergence: 9 Buys, 5 Holds, zero revisions this month, target $13.39 vs spot $10.30 - a 30% implied upside that nobody is actually defending with fresh notes. That gap usually closes by targets drifting down, not price rallying up, which is itself a slow headwind.

Tailwinds 1
m20
Sentiment already washed out
Low cult, minimal narrative, weak price - expectations are low enough that any positive ag-cycle surprise or commodity bid could spark a sharp reflex rally off a shorted, under-owned name.
Headwinds 5
m55
No narrative shield in a jittery tape
Minimal narrative intensity plus a 1.23 beta means macro wobble passes straight through to the stock. There is no cult bid or thematic flow to absorb selling on risk-off days.
m60
Momentum tape is broken
Down 14% annualized and still making lower lows (-8.8% recent). Trend followers and systematic flows are short or absent; new buyers need a catalyst that is not visible.
m45
Ag cycle narrative turning against the name
The bear framing (cyclical, grain-price tied, dealer inventory risk, Chinese price competition) is the one the tape is pricing. With soft grain prices in the backdrop, the story is fading not strengthening.
m35
Stale analyst tone, revision risk skewed down
Buy consensus with a $13.39 target and zero revisions this month against a $10.30 print is a setup for downward target drift, not catch-up buying. The divergence resolves the wrong way for longs.
m25
Rates backdrop pressures farm capex story
10y at 4.48% keeps farm credit tight, which is exactly the channel the bear case flags. Macro is reinforcing the negative narrative rather than fighting it.
Net headwind, not catastrophic. This is a cyclical with no story trading in a neutral-but-nervous tape, and the things that would defend it - a hot narrative, fresh analyst upgrades, positive momentum - are all absent. The analyst board still says Buy but nobody is putting fresh ink on it, and that gap usually closes by targets coming down. I would not fight the tape here; the pressure is mildly but persistently negative until grain prices or the macro tone turn.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Whether analyst targets start getting cut toward spot (confirming the stale-bull unwind)
  • Grain price action and USDA prints - the real narrative driver here
  • Dealer inventory commentary from peer DE; any destocking signal hits CNH harder
  • Any shift in ag-equipment ETF flows or sector rotation back into late-cycle industrials
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
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Three lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), and General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 15, 2026 3:06:03 am

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 15, 2026 3:06am (12d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $19.5B $23.6B $24.7B $19.8B $18.1B
Cost of Revenue $14.1B $16.6B $16.8B $13.4B $12.4B
Gross Profit $5.4B $7.0B $7.8B $6.5B $5.7B
Operating Expenses $2.1B $2.6B $2.9B $2.6B $2.9B
Operating Income $3.3B $4.4B $4.9B $3.9B $2.8B
Net Income $1.7B $2.0B $2.3B $1.2B $510.0M
EBITDA $3.0B $3.9B $4.6B $3.7B $2.9B
EPS $1.27 $1.50 $1.71 $0.99 $0.41
EPS (Diluted) — — — — —
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 15, 2026 3:02am (12d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $5.0B $4.4B $4.3B $3.2B $3.2B
Total Current Assets $39.2B $29.7B $35.4B $32.0B $31.4B
Total Assets $49.4B $39.4B $46.3B $42.9B $42.7B
Current Liabilities $17.7B $5.6B $17.5B $14.8B $4.1B
Long-Term Debt $20.9B $23.0B $15.8B $16.0B $26.8B
Total Liabilities $42.6B $32.4B $38.1B $35.2B $34.9B
Total Equity $6.8B $6.9B $8.0B $7.7B $7.7B
Retained Earnings $4.8B $7.9B $9.7B $10.3B $10.5B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 15, 2026 3:06am (12d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $4.1B $557.0M $907.0M $2.0B $2.5B
Capital Expenditure -$921.0M -$999.0M -$1.2B -$1.2B -$543.0M
Free Cash Flow $3.2B -$442.0M -$288.0M $782.0M $2.0B
Acquisitions (net) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Debt Repayment — — — — —
Dividends Paid — — — — —
Stock Buybacks $0 -$153.0M -$652.0M -$702.0M -$100.0M
Net Change in Cash -$2.8B -$716.0M -$84.0M -$1.2B -$637.0M
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 15, 2026 3:00am (12d ago)
Metric 2027 2028 2029 2030
Revenue $18.9B
$18.4B – $19.4B
 $20.6B
$20.1B – $21.1B
 $20.9B
$20.5B – $21.5B
 $22.3B
$21.8B – $22.8B
EBITDA $3.2B
$3.1B – $3.3B
 $3.5B
$3.4B – $3.6B
 $3.5B
$3.5B – $3.6B
 $3.8B
$3.7B – $3.9B
Net Income $878.8M
$659.1M – $1.0B
 $1.2B
$1.2B – $1.3B
 $1.4B
$1.3B – $1.4B
 $1.6B
$1.5B – $1.6B
EPS — — — —
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 15, 2026 3:06am (12d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +20.8% +4.8% -19.7% -8.8%
Gross Profit Growth +29.2% +12.5% -17.4% -12.3%
Operating Income Growth +32.0% +13.5% -22.1% -27.5%
Net Income Growth +17.8% +12.1% -45.2% -59.1%
EBITDA Growth +30.1% +19.0% -20.4% -21.9%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 15, 2026 3:06am (12d ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-05-26 Nasi Alessandro A-Award 5,634.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-26 Buffett Howard W. A-Award 5,634.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-26 Simonelli Lorenzo A-Award 5,634.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-26 Sorensen Vagn O A-Award 5,634.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-26 Bastoni Elizabeth A. A-Award 5,634.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-26 Palmer Richard Keith A-Award 5,634.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-26 Linehan Karen A-Award 5,634.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-26 Schroeder Jay A-Award 23,472.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-26 Chishti Humayun A-Award 15,469.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-26 Heywood Suzanne A-Award 41,080.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-26 Pampalone Stefano A-Award 44,899.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-26 Nickolas James AJ A-Award 95,863.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-26 MacLeod Douglas A-Award 19,057.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-26 Worthen Britton M. A-Award 27,888.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-26 Tutino Francesco Vincenzo Maria A-Award 34,997.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-08 Simonelli Lorenzo 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-08 Palmer Richard Keith 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-13 Schroeder Jay F-InKind 1,246.00 $10.62 $13,233
2026-05-11 KRAMER RICHARD J M-Exempt 4,980.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-11 KRAMER RICHARD J F-InKind 93.00 $10.84 $1,008
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 15, 2026 3:00am (12d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-05-21 $0.10 2026-03-25 2026-05-21 2026-05-29
2025-05-21 $0.25 2025-03-24 2025-05-21 2025-05-30
2024-05-10 $0.47 2024-03-19 2024-05-13 2024-05-29
2023-04-24 $0.40 2023-04-25 2023-05-03
2022-04-19 $0.30 2022-04-20 2022-05-04
2021-04-19 $0.13 2021-04-20 2021-05-05
2019-04-23 $0.20 2019-04-24 2019-05-02
2018-04-23 $0.17 2018-04-24 2018-05-02
2017-04-24 $0.12
2016-04-25 $0.15
2015-04-20 $0.22
2014-04-22 $0.28
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for CNH — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-15 03:06:43
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict I dissent mildly from "High Conviction Required" — that's an analyst non-answer. The numbers support a clearer call: CNH is cheap on normalized earnings but not yet cheap enough on trough earnings to be a fat pitch, and Q1 2026's near-zero margin says the trough hasn't been confirmed. I'd want to see either (a) one quarter of margin stabilization with NI back above $150M, or (b) the stock at $8.50-9.00 (1.0x trough book, ~5x normalized EBITDA) before sizing up. At $10.6 you're paying for a recovery that hasn't started, with a captive finance black box on the balance sheet. The dividend yield of 2.89% and ~$2B FCF (which itself may be flattered by working capital release in a downcycle) provide some floor, but FCF will likely compress in 2026 as inventories rebuild.

The raw numbers tell a brutal cyclical story that the prior models partially obscure with hedging language. Revenue collapsed from $24.69B (2023) to $18.10B (2025) — a 27% peak-to-trough drop — and net income cratered 78% from $2.28B to $510M over the same window. Q1 2026 just printed $3.83B revenue with $7M net income (0.2% margin), which is essentially breakeven and worse than Q1 2025's $131M NI on identical revenue. That's not a stabilizing trough; that's still-deteriorating unit economics likely reflecting dealer destocking, price concessions, and underabsorbed fixed costs. The "accelerating quarterly trend" tag in Secondary Signals is misleading — sequential Q4→Q1 is seasonal, and the YoY comparison shows margins compressing further, not bottoming.

My independent read: this is mid-cycle-down, not late-cycle-down. Deere's commentary, US net farm income forecasts, and dealer inventory data suggest ag equipment demand troughs in late 2025/early 2026 with recovery pushed into 2027. CNH at $10.6 trades at 0.64x sales and ~26x trough earnings — neither cheap on current numbers nor expensive on normalized. Normalized EPS at mid-cycle (call it $1.50, between 2025's ~$0.40 and 2023's ~$1.70) at a 10-12x cyclical multiple gets you $15-18, roughly 40-70% upside but only on a 2027 recovery. The 2.89% dividend pays you to wait, but coverage thins fast if 2026 deteriorates further.

Where I disagree with the prior models: the Synthesis "High Conviction Required" verdict and the Narrative layer's framing of a "41% premium to DCF" both feel disconnected from the print. There is no premium here — the stock trades at 0.64x sales versus a 5-year average closer to 0.9-1.0x and Deere at ~1.8x. The reverse-DCF implying 12.6% growth is an artifact of using depressed FCF as the base; that's a known trap in cyclicals. The Pre-Flight call of "cyclical-industrial-with-captive-finance" is the most honest framing — and critically, the captive finance arm (CNH Capital) means the $3.23B cash figure and 7.75 current ratio are misleading because finance receivables and associated debt dominate the balance sheet (the "—" for total debt is a serious gap). ROE of 5% and ROIC of 5.75% on TTM are trough numbers, not steady-state; citing them as evidence of low quality is regime-inappropriate.

The contrarian case against buying: (1) Chinese ag equipment exporters (YTO, Lovol) are gaining share in emerging markets where CNH had hoped to grow, and tariff retaliation could compress export margins permanently; (2) Deere is widening its precision-ag technology lead, and CNH's Raven acquisition hasn't closed the gap — this could be partly structural share loss masquerading as cyclical; (3) higher-for-longer rates crush farmer financing demand and inflate CNH Capital's funding costs simultaneously; (4) the insider "awards" on 2026-05-26 are all grants, not open-market buys — zero conviction signal, and the Secondary Signals "Neutral" tag overstates it. The bull needs grain prices to recover, which requires either supply shock or China demand resumption — neither is in the analyst's control.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-15 03:06:54
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I side with Opus—CNH is not convincingly undervalued at $10.6; fair value leans closer to $8.50-$9.00 pending margin stabilization and clearer recovery signals, particularly within its captive finance operations.

Analyzing CNH Industrial N.V., the immediate focus for me is the stark revenue decline from $24.69 billion in 2023 to $18.10 billion in 2025, paired with a net income drop from $2.28 billion to $510 million over the same period. These figures indicate significant operational challenges and margin pressures, with Q1 2026 posting a near-zero net income of $7 million on $3.83 billion revenue, suggesting ongoing deterioration rather than stabilization. The cyclical nature of the agricultural machinery industry is evident, as CNH's fortunes are tightly linked to commodity cycles and farmer economics. The balance sheet's cash position of $3.23 billion and a high current ratio of 7.75 might suggest financial flexibility, yet these could be misleading due to CNH Capital's role and unlisted total debt, highlighting potential risks not immediately visible in the headline numbers.

Opus argues that CNH is not yet cheap enough on trough earnings to warrant a clear buy, emphasizing the need for margin stabilization or a price drop to $8.50-$9.00 to justify investment. I agree with this cautious stance, noting the Q1 2026 margin at 0.2% as an indicator that the company hasn't bottomed out yet. The call for a recovery that hasn't started is valid, especially with the 2.89% dividend yield offering limited comfort in the face of potential further deterioration in free cash flow as inventories rebuild.

Where I diverge from Opus is in the interpretation of the "High Conviction Required" narrative. While Opus points out that this sentiment feels disconnected from the print, I see it as a necessary reflection of the high-risk environment CNH operates in. The reverse DCF's implied 12.6% growth is indeed a questionable metric given the depressed base, yet it does highlight the market's pricing of a cyclical recovery, albeit one that may be optimistic given the current fundamentals.

From a skeptic's perspective, one could argue that the narrative of CNH as a cyclical value play is overly reliant on an eventual recovery that might not materialize as expected. The encroachment of Chinese manufacturers in emerging markets and Deere's technological advancements could signify a structural shift rather than a temporary downturn. Furthermore, the absence of insider buying and reliance on stock awards might underscore a lack of internal confidence in a near-term turnaround. Additionally, the macro environment—characterized by persistent high interest rates—could suppress demand further and strain CNH's financial arm, exacerbating funding challenges.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.352 · d1100787 · 2026-06-26 11:39:30