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AGING Analysis Report
Aug 2, 2026
21 days ago · 100% complete
NOT DEPENDABLE This report predates a filing — its financial basis has been replaced.
Report generated: Aug 2, 2026 · Filing on record since: Aug 22, 2026 · 19 days after
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Copart Inc. (CPRT) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score +17 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 85 · Value -38 · Sentiment -4 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $27.81 vs $29.12 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

Copart Inc.

CPRT NASDAQ
Industrials · Specialty Business Services
Dallas, TX 75254, United States copart.com Updated Aug 2, 2:00pm
Price
$29.12
Market Cap
$27.0B
Employees
13,800
Beta
1.02
Avg Volume
13,759,193
CEO
Mr. Jeffrey Liaw

Copart Inc. is a global provider of online vehicle auction and remarketing services, headquartered in Dallas, Texas. The company operates a digital marketplace that connects institutional and individual vehicle sellers with a broad base of buyers, primarily serving the automotive and insurance industries. Copart specializes in the sale of salvage and used vehicles, many of which originate from auto insurance companies, rental car firms, financial institutions, and dealerships. Its proprietary virtual bidding platform enables real-time auctions and supports buyers such as dismantlers, rebuilders, used car dealers, exporters, and private individuals across multiple countries. In addition to auctions, Copart offers complementary services including vehicle transportation and logistics, storage, title processing, and damage and value assessment. By providing an efficient, technology-driven infrastructure for handling damaged and low-value vehicles, Copart plays a significant role in the automotive secondary and salvage markets, facilitating liquidity, recovery, and reuse within the broader vehicle lifecycle.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 2, 2026 2:11pm
Price Overview
Price at report time
$29.12
as of Aug 2, 2:16pm (21d ago)
Change · Aug 2
-0.45 (-1.52%)
Day Range
$28.78 – $29.24
52-Week Range
$26.81 – $50.11
50-Day MA
$29.96
200-Day MA
$35.87
Volume
8,532,000.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 21d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 925,811,482.00
Float 845,432,529.00
Free Float 91.3%
High free float — 91.3% of shares trade freely, ~8.7% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:26pm (21d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:26pm (21d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
18.31
Stock Price: $29.12
EPS (Diluted): 1.59
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
3.09
Stock Price: $29.12
Total Equity: $9.21B
Shares: 977,563,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
12.64
Market Cap: $26.96B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $2.78B
EBITDA: $1.91B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$24.2B
Market Cap: $26.96B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $2.78B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
Gross Profit: N/A
Revenue: $4.65B
Missing from API: Gross Profit
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
36.5%
Operating Income: $1.70B
Revenue: $4.65B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
33.4%
Net Income: $1.55B
Revenue: $4.65B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
16.9%
Net Income: $1.55B
Total Equity: $9.21B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
21.6%
Operating Income: $1.70B
Tax Rate: 18.3%
Equity: $9.21B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $2.78B
Zero debt — invested capital = equity minus cash (very efficient)
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
8.42
Current Assets: $5.75B
Current Liabilities: $683.28M
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.00
Short-Term Debt: $0.00
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $0.00
Total Equity: $9.21B
Zero debt — this company carries no debt obligations. Strongest possible score.
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$4.75
Revenue: $4.65B
Shares: 977,563,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$9.42
Total Equity: $9.21B
Shares: 977,563,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$1.26
Operating CF: $1.80B
CapEx: -$568.99M
Shares: 977,563,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
Last Dividend: $0.00
Stock Price: $29.12
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $1.55B
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 2, 2026 2:09pm
Compares CPRT against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:26pm (21d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $2.7B $3.5B $3.9B $4.2B $4.6B
Cost of Revenue
Gross Profit
Operating Expenses
Operating Income $1.1B $1.4B $1.5B $1.6B $1.7B
Net Income $936.5M $1.1B $1.2B $1.4B $1.6B
EBITDA $1.3B $1.5B $1.6B $1.8B $1.9B
EPS $3.96 $4.59 $1.30 $1.42 $1.61
EPS (Diluted) $3.90 $4.52 $1.28 $1.40 $1.59
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:00pm (21d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $1.0B $1.4B $957.4M $1.5B $2.8B
Total Current Assets $1.7B $2.2B $3.3B $4.4B $5.8B
Total Assets $4.6B $5.3B $6.7B $8.4B $10.1B
Current Liabilities $421.0M $440.9M $492.8M $628.6M $683.3M
Long-Term Debt $400.0M $0 $11.0M
Total Liabilities $1.0B $683.3M $750.4M $879.2M $883.4M
Total Equity $3.5B $4.6B $6.0B $7.5B $9.2B
Retained Earnings $2.9B $4.0B $5.2B $6.5B $8.1B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:26pm (21d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $990.9M $1.2B $1.4B $1.5B $1.8B
Capital Expenditure -$463.0M -$337.4M -$516.6M -$511.0M -$569.0M
Free Cash Flow $527.9M $839.2M $847.6M $961.6M $1.2B
Acquisitions (net) -$5.0M -$106.6M $0 -$1.2M
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) $0 -$416.8M $0 $0
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks $0
Net Change in Cash $570.5M $336.0M -$426.8M $556.7M $1.3B
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:26pm (21d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +30.0% +10.5% +9.5% +9.7%
Gross Profit Growth
Operating Income Growth +21.0% +8.1% +5.7% +7.9%
Net Income Growth +16.4% +13.5% +10.1% +13.9%
EBITDA Growth +20.2% +8.8% +7.0% +8.6%
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:02pm (21d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2014-06-11 $0.00
2014-06-05 $0.00
2014-05-20 $0.00
2014-05-16 $0.00
2014-04-02 $0.00
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable 18 computed · 6 not applicable
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-23 02:40
-0.7 : 1 recovery upside vs repeat-quarter downside
Even the bull case prices 40% below today — the ratio here measures the model-vs-market gap, not payoff odds. Another quarter like the worst recent one costs 59%.
CaseGrowthMarginFair valuevs price ($29.12)
Bull — recovery +6% 35.0% $17.47 -40%
Base — stabilizes +4% 33.5% $15.83 -46%
Bear — keeps slipping +2% 28.5% $12.97 -55%
Stress — last quarter repeats -4% 31.7% $11.90 -59%
The next quarters keep the trajectory of the worst recent matched quarter (ending 2026-01-31) — growth stays at -3.6% and margins bend by the same profit-vs-revenue ratio (×0.95). Stress is a trajectory, not a prediction — it answers "what if the ship's current heading simply continues," which history says is the case to respect.
Why this is appearing: this company files quarterly, so its recent trajectory could be measured rather than assumed — the engine matched Apr 2026, Jan 2026, Oct 2025 against the same quarters one year earlier and found revenue -0.2% · operating income -0.0% · net income +0.1% year-over-year. That measured heading is what the stress case extends forward. Of those, the stress case extends the worst matched quarter — the one ending Jan 31, 2026 (revenue -3.6%, operating income -8.8% YoY) — not the average. Data measured through Apr 30, 2026 — this card recalculates automatically when the next quarterly filing is ingested. Companies without quarterly filings (many foreign listings) never show this card: with no measured trajectory, there is nothing honest to repeat.
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for CPRT — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-08-02 14:25:25
Verdict Fairly valued to modestly overvalued at $29.12 — quality is real but growth/margin trajectory is decelerating; fair value $25-27, wait for a Q4 print or a pullback rather than chase.

Working from the raw numbers first: CPRT is doing $4.65B TTM-ish revenue with net margins that have oscillated between 30-35% for eight straight quarters — that's remarkable consistency. But the quarterly trajectory tells a subtler story than the "steady compounder" label suggests. Q1 FY26 (Oct 2025) rev of $1.16B was actually *down* from Q4 FY25's $1.21B, and the most recent Q3 FY26 print of $1.24B on 32.5% margin represents margin compression from the 35%+ prints in mid-2025. Recent YoY revenue growth of 9.7% is meaningfully below the 13-14% pace implied earlier in the dataset, and net income growth is decelerating alongside it. The 5-year revenue CAGR of 9.6% is flattered by the 2021→2022 print (29% jump — clearly the used-vehicle price bubble). Strip that out and normalized growth looks more like 7-9%.

The balance sheet is genuinely fortress-grade: $2.78B cash, zero debt reported, $9.21B equity, current ratio 8.4. FCF of $1.23B on $1.55B NI is fine but the ~$570M capex line (against historical ~$300-400M) suggests Copart is spending real money on land/yards for international expansion — that's the growth engine, and it's compressing FCF conversion. ROIC of 21.6% remains elite. At $29.12 and 18.3x earnings, this isn't demanding for the quality, but it's also not cheap for a business decelerating from 14% to ~10% growth with margins ticking down 200-300bps in the last two quarters.

Where I part ways with the prior models: the synthesis calls this "slight upside" at fair value $30.52 with a +4.8% signal — that's within noise, effectively fairly-valued, and I'd argue the composite is being generous by extrapolating peak-cycle margins. The pre-flight thesis frames the market as pricing in "meaningful growth deceleration or margin pressure" as if that's speculative — but the actual quarterlies confirm it's already happening. The 32.5% margin in the most recent quarter versus 35.2% two quarters prior is a real signal, not noise. The narrative layer correctly identifies this as anchored/minimal-intensity, but that cuts both ways: with no cult premium to deflate, there's also no sentiment cushion when growth disappoints. Insider activity leans mildly negative — three sales including a 80K share block in July 2026 and no offsetting open-market buys — the "neutral" tag understates this modestly.

The contrarian case a skeptic should press: Copart's moat depends on insurance-totaled vehicle volume, which is structurally tied to (a) miles driven, (b) accident frequency, and (c) insurer decisions to total vs. repair. ADAS adoption is a slow-moving headwind on (b); rising used-vehicle values from 2021-2023 pushed total-loss ratios higher, but that tailwind is reversing as used-car prices normalize. If total-loss frequency mean-reverts, CPRT loses volume growth on top of decelerating pricing. International expansion (UK/Germany) is real but lower-margin and capex-heavy — hence the capex creep. A bear could argue fair value is closer to 15-16x on normalized $1.5B earnings = $22-24B market cap, or roughly $24-26/share, i.e., 10-15% downside. Conversely, the bull needs either (a) margin re-expansion back to 35%, or (b) growth re-acceleration to low-teens — neither is visible in the last three quarters.

Net verdict: I dissent modestly from the synthesis's "slight upside" framing. Price and fair value are close enough that this is a fair-value call, not an upside call, and the risk skew is asymmetric to the downside given decelerating growth, compressing margins, capex-heavy international push, and mild insider selling. The quality is undeniable — 21.6% ROIC, zero debt, $2.78B cash — but paying 18x for a business that just posted its lowest margin in eight quarters and slowest YoY growth is not "upside." I'd want $25-26 to build a position, hold if already long, and would not chase at $29. If Q4 FY26 shows margin recovery back above 34% and revenue reaccelerates above 12% YoY, revisit — that's the specific catalyst, measured by the July 2026 print.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-02 14:25:40
Verdict Undervalued at $29.12 — the market is pricing Copart like a mature service company, but the balance sheet, margins, and low-double-digit earnings growth support fair value closer to $34-$36.

What stands out is not “mature earner” so much as “exceptionally efficient compounder that the market is oddly valuing like a plain industrial service business.” Copart has taken revenue from $2.69B in 2021 to $4.65B in 2025, a 73% increase in four years, while operating income rose from $1.14B to $1.70B and net income from $936.5M to $1.55B. That is not a business limping into maturity; it is a business sustaining 36.5% operating margins and 33.4% net margins at multi-billion-dollar scale. The quarterly run-rate remains solid: the latest quarter did $1.24B of revenue, up from $1.21B a year earlier, and net income of $402.4M versus $406.6M, which looks softer only because Copart has been comping against unusually strong profitability. Across the last eight quarters, revenue has moved from $1.07B to $1.24B and net margins have mostly stayed in a 30%-35% band. That consistency matters more than the slight quarter-to-quarter wobble.

The valuation is where the contradiction sits. A company with zero debt, $2.78B of cash, 21.6% ROIC, 16.9% ROE on an overcapitalized balance sheet, and $1.23B of free cash flow is rarely available at 18.3x earnings and 12.6x EV/EBITDA unless the market thinks the business is near a ceiling. But the numbers do not yet show a ceiling. Annual revenue growth was 9.6% CAGR over the provided period, earnings CAGR 12%, and recent quarterly growth is still roughly 10% on sales and 14% on earnings. Even after hefty capex of $569M, free cash flow remains substantial. On an enterprise basis, EV/revenue of 5.2x for a 33% net margin franchise is not demanding. If I annualize the latest two quarters, earnings power is roughly $1.5B-$1.6B, which implies the market is paying a high-teens multiple for a business that still compounds in low double digits and carries no balance-sheet risk. That usually deserves more like low-20s earnings, especially given the resilience of margins.

The key to the story is that Copart behaves more like an infrastructure marketplace than a cyclical scrap-yard operator, and the market still seems to haircut it for the latter. The evidence is in the durability of profitability through growth: operating margin was 42% in 2021, then 39%, 38%, and 36.5% in 2025—some compression, yes, but from extraordinary levels and still among the best in the market. Meanwhile, cash generation is real, not optical: operating cash flow of $1.80B exceeded net income of $1.55B in the latest year. The 8.4x current ratio and debt-free capital structure give management enormous flexibility. At $29.12, with a $26.96B market cap and roughly $24B enterprise value after net cash, I think the market is underwriting a normalized, slower-growth future too aggressively. My bias is that fair value is comfortably above the current quote, closer to what you’d pay for a dominant network business with visible volume, pricing power, and elite returns—roughly $34-$36.

The best bear case is straightforward and not stupid. Quarterly revenue growth has moderated from the stronger post-2021 expansion phase to high single digits, and net margin in the latest quarter fell to 32.5% from 33.6% a year ago and 35%+ in several intervening quarters. Annual operating margin has drifted down from 42% in 2021 to 36.5% in 2025, suggesting the franchise may already be past peak incremental profitability. If the true steady-state is 8%-10% revenue growth with mild margin erosion and capex staying elevated near $569M, then 18x earnings is not especially cheap for a business tied to auto claims volumes, salvage supply, and international execution. The insider tape also leans more toward routine monetization than aggressive confidence, with option exercises and sales but no obvious open-market accumulation. A smart skeptic would say this is a wonderful business, but a wonderful business already priced for its current quality with limited re-rating potential.

What would change my mind is not one soft quarter, but evidence that the compounding machine is actually flattening. If revenue growth slips below 7% for several quarters while net margins settle closer to 28%-30%, the case for a premium multiple weakens materially. Likewise, if capex remains high without supporting a return to low-teens revenue growth, then free cash flow yield matters more and today’s valuation would look merely fair. On the other hand, if Copart keeps posting $1.2B+ quarters with 32%-35% net margins and converts that into another year of $1.6B+ net income and $1.3B+ FCF, the stock should not stay at this multiple for long.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-08-02 14:26:07
Verdict High-quality compounder at 18x earnings and $29; modest undervaluation vs. 22% ROIC and 33% margins, fair value nearer $33–35

The numbers describe a cash-compounding machine that the market is treating like a utility. Copart just printed $4.65B in fiscal 2025 revenue and $1.55B in net income at a 33.4% net margin and 36.5% operating margin, with ROIC at 21.6% and zero debt against $2.78B in cash. Free cash flow of $1.23B after $569M of capex converts earnings cleanly, and the multi-year trajectory is unambiguous: revenue has compounded at roughly 9.6% from the $2.69B base in 2021 while earnings have grown faster at 12% and FCF at 20.5%. The most recent quarter ($1.24B revenue, $402M net income, 32.5% margin) sits comfortably above the prior-year period and keeps the trailing run-rate near $4.7–4.8B. At 18.3x trailing earnings, 12.6x EV/EBITDA and 5.2x EV/sales, the market is assigning almost no premium for a business that generates mid-30s margins, double-digit returns on capital, and a fortress balance sheet with a current ratio above 8. That multiple is the story: the price assumes growth simply grinds lower and never re-accelerates.

Quarterly progression reinforces durability rather than peak-and-fade. Margins have stayed inside a tight 30–35% band across eight quarters even as revenue oscillated between $1.07B and $1.24B; there is no evidence of structural compression. The $1.80B operating cash flow figure for fiscal 2025, paired with still-elevated but productive capex, shows the model continues to throw off cash after land and technology investments. Insider activity is noise—option exercises and modest sales totaling well under 1% of float—and does not signal distribution. Against this backdrop the 18x P/E looks like a discount to quality, not a fair clearing price for a 22% ROIC compounder still growing high-single to low-double digits.

The strongest counter-case is that the multiple is already correct for a mature earner whose top line is tethered to insurance total-loss frequency and used-vehicle supply. Revenue CAGR has decelerated from the pandemic-era surge, recent year-over-year growth of 9.7% is unspectacular, and the valuation synthesis only clears $30.50—barely 5% above the current $29.12. If volumes normalize further or international expansion (UK, Germany, Canada) absorbs more capital than it returns, the 12% earnings growth rate could slip into high-single digits and the stock would sit dead money at 18x. Skeptics will also note that EV/revenue of 5.2x still embeds an assumption of durable pricing power; any sustained compression in auction fees or salvage ASPs would justify a lower multiple. I weigh this less heavily because the margin stability and FCF conversion have already survived several cycles, the balance sheet eliminates refinancing or leverage risk, and 18x remains inexpensive relative to the ROIC and net-margin profile even if growth settles at 8%.

What flips the view is straightforward: two consecutive quarters of revenue growth below 5% accompanied by net-margin erosion below 30%, or a clear peak in U.S. total-loss frequency that management cannot offset with international volume. Conversely, a re-acceleration above 12% revenue growth with stable margins would force multiple expansion and make the current price look like a clear mispricing.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 7.3; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 5.0
fairly valued · conviction 3/5 · Δ -2.3 vs panel · self: 4.0
GPT gpt-5.4 9.0
undervalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ +1.7 vs panel · self: 7.0
Grok grok-4.5 8.0
undervalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.7 vs panel · self: 7.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-02 21:50:07
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality - wait for a dip 7/10
CPRT is a genuine Fortress business (quality +85) trading essentially at fair value (-38, ~3% upside), so I wait for a real discount rather than chase.
The cruxWhether operating margin stabilizes or keeps its 570bp slide - that single trajectory determines if the composite $30 fair value migrates toward the PE anchor ($66) or the DCF/EPV floor ($16-19).
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from CPRT's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionHeavy Dilution
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+85
Fortress
edge √Σ 166 · risk √Σ 42 · conf 8/10

Copart runs a genuinely outstanding business: revenue compounded from $2.69B (2021) to $4.65B (2025), operating margins have sat between 36.5% and 42.2% every year, and net income grew from $937M to $1.55B. Free cash flow rose from $528M to $1.23B, with OCF/NI of 1.1x and accruals of -1.7% of assets - the mechanical earnings-quality checks are clean and Altman Z of 21.05 is deep in the safe zone. Net cash of $2.78B with zero apparent leverage means survival is not a question in any scenario. The apparent 42% diluted share CAGR flagged by the module is a data artifact from a stock split (share count jumps from 241M in 2022 to 967M in 2023, then only 977M by 2025) - true underlying dilution is roughly 1% per year, consistent with SBC at just 0.8% of revenue. Operating margin has drifted down modestly from 42.2% to 36.5% over five years, which is the one soft spot in an otherwise pristine trajectory - worth understanding whether that reflects mix (growth in insurance/whole-car adjacencies), reinvestment in yards/technology, or genuine competitive/pricing pressure. Insider activity is neutral-to-mildly negative (five sales, no open-market buys) but modest in size relative to compensation and does not signal anything material.

Strengths 5
m85
Fortress balance sheet
$2.78B liquid cash, net cash position, Altman Z of 21.05. Survival is not in question under any realistic scenario.
m80
Elite margin structure
Operating margin has ranged 36.5%-42.2% across five years on a services business - indicative of scale and network effects in the salvage auction duopoly.
m78
Clean earnings quality
OCF/NI of 1.1x, accruals -1.7% of assets, FCF grew from $528M to $1.23B tracking net income growth. No accrual/cash divergence.
m70
Consistent top-line compounding
Revenue $2.69B to $4.65B (~15% CAGR) with net income up 66% over the same period - durable growth without financial engineering.
m55
Low real dilution
The 42% share CAGR flag is a stock-split artifact; SBC at 0.8% of revenue and share count roughly flat 2023-2025 (967M to 978M) indicate disciplined per-share stewardship.
Concerns 3
m35
Operating margin drift
OpM has stepped down every year from 42.2% (2021) to 36.5% (2025). Modest and possibly reinvestment-driven, but the trend is unambiguously one direction.
m18
Insider selling, no buying
Five sales totaling ~$4.1M in the last 12 months, zero open-market buys. Small in absolute terms and largely tied to option exercises, but no insider is stepping up.
m15
No capital return to shareholders
Buyback/SBC ratio 0% - despite $2.78B cash and $1.23B annual FCF, no share repurchases to offset even modest SBC dilution.
This is a genuinely high-quality business - one of the cleanest industrial services franchises in the market. Duopoly economics, decade-plus of compounding, fortress balance sheet, cash earnings that convert 1:1, and no meaningful dilution once you correct for the split. The two things that keep me from calling it flawless: operating margin has quietly slipped ~570bps over five years and nobody is buying back stock despite a pile of cash sitting idle. Neither is disqualifying, but they're the reason this sits in the high-80s rather than the low-90s. Insider tape is a non-event - normal option-exercise-and-sell behavior. I'd call it Fortress with a small asterisk on margin trajectory.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • Confirm the 2022-2023 share count jump was a stock split (typically 2-for-1) and not a genuine issuance
  • Root cause of the operating margin decline from 42.2% to 36.5% - mix shift, wage/facility costs, or competitive pricing
  • Customer concentration among insurance carriers (top-5 % of revenue) given the salvage auction model
  • International segment growth and margin profile vs. mature US business
  • Capital allocation policy - why no buybacks or dividend given $2.78B net cash and $1.23B FCF
  • Land/yard capex trajectory and whether reinvestment explains part of the margin compression
Valuation / Mispricing
-38
Fairly Valued
edge √Σ 39 · risk √Σ 79 · conf 7/10
price $29.12 vs deserved ~$30, ~3% upside - inside the noise, essentially fair. attractive below $24.00

The composite fair value of $30.06 and signal-adjusted $30.52 sit within 5% of the $29.12 price - the definition of fair. The method spread is wide and telling: DCF says $18.76 and EPV floor $15.89, while an anchored-PE bootstraps to $66.84. The truth is between - the low methods reflect a business whose operating margin has slipped ~570bps and whose growth is capped by insurance claim cycles; the high PE anchor reflects duopoly economics and fortress cash generation. Averaging into ~$30 is a reasonable read. There is no margin of safety here. To justify materially higher, you need international scale (UK, Germany, Canada) to reaccelerate revenue and margins to reinflect - plausible but not underwritten by current trajectory. To justify the bear case toward EPV/DCF ($16-19), insurance volumes would need to structurally soften. Neither is imminent. Earnings quality is high (score 2), so no haircut - deserved value stays near composite. Net: a Fortress business trading at Fortress-appropriate price. Interesting, not cheap.

Cheap signals 2
m30
Anchored PE suggests upside if multiple holds
Anchored-PE fair value of $66.84 is likely a runaway output extrapolating peak margins/multiple and should be heavily discounted, but it does confirm that on any earnings-multiple basis the stock is not expensive relative to its own history.
m25
No haircut needed for earnings quality
Earnings quality score 2 (high) means cash earnings convert 1:1 - deserved value does not get marked down, keeping composite FV credible near $30.
Rich / priced-in 3
m55
DCF and EPV well below price
DCF $18.76 and EPV floor $15.89 both sit 35-45% below the $29.12 price, implying the market is paying a meaningful premium over cash-flow-only math - fine for a Fortress name but leaves no downside cushion.
m45
Margin slippage not priced as a risk
Operating margin has quietly compressed ~570bps over five years per the quality lens; the current price assumes this stabilizes or reverses, which is not underwritten.
m35
Priced for the compounder narrative already
The bear framing - paying for a mature digital utility at a fair multiple with no reacceleration catalyst - matches the ~5% upside signal. The good news is in.
This is a great business at a fair price, which for a valuation lens means pass. The composite FV lands within 5% of spot - that is not mispricing, that is the market being roughly right about a well-understood compounder. I am not paying up for Fortress quality when DCF and EPV both say $16-19; I want at least a 15-20% discount to composite before I get interested, which means sub-$25. Above that, I am just renting the narrative.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • International segment revenue growth and margin trajectory (UK, Germany, Canada) in latest 10-Q
  • Insurance claim volume commentary and total loss frequency trends on last earnings call
  • Operating margin bridge - is the 570bps slip cyclical (mix, fuel, transport costs) or structural
  • Capex intensity as international facility buildout continues - free cash conversion
  • Any buyback acceleration given the fortress balance sheet
General Sentiment
-4
Balanced
tail √Σ 37 · head √Σ 42 · conf 6/10

Copart is the archetype of a name the sentiment lens has almost nothing to say about. The narrative intensity is minimal and the cult coefficient is low - there is no active story being bid up or torn down, just a quiet steady-compounder framing that the market broadly accepts. With price tracking DCF within about 5%, there is no visible sentiment premium or discount to fade or ride. That mutes both tailwind and headwind potential on this specific name. The macro tape is mildly constructive (regime +22, VIX 16, S&P barely off highs), and with beta near 1.0 CPRT neither amplifies nor dampens it meaningfully. Higher rates and a stretched market PE are a generic drag on all equities, but a profitable, low-volatility, asset-light compounder in specialty business services is exactly the profile that absorbs that pressure best - it is not the kind of high-beta story stock that gets mauled in a wobble. The one recent news item is a single down day (-4.07%) with no thematic driver attached - noise, not a narrative crack. Analyst tone is not flagged as diverging. Net: the forces on this ticker right now are ordinary crosswinds, roughly cancelling.

Tailwinds 2
m22
Constructive but nascent tape
Regime score +22 with VIX 16 and index near highs is a mild risk-on backdrop; with beta 1.02 CPRT gets an ordinary lift, nothing more.
m30
Durable, uncontested narrative
Steady-compounder framing with durable staying power and no active bear thesis in circulation means no story is at risk of breaking - a quiet floor under sentiment even if it generates no excitement.
Headwinds 3
m25
Generic rates/valuation drag
10y at 4.68% and market PE near 27 press on all equities, but CPRT's profitable, low-beta, asset-light profile absorbs this better than most - a background headwind, not a decisive one.
m28
No catalyst, no cult
Minimal narrative intensity and low cult coefficient mean there is no momentum crowd to bid this up on any tape strength; the stock will not get a sentiment multiple even in a rally.
m18
Single-day drop with no thesis
The -4.07% print on 7/30 has no narrative driver attached in the flow - looks like noise or a rotation day, not the start of a sentiment leg down.
This is the definition of a low-sentiment-signal name. The narrative is thin because the fundamentals are the story, price sits on DCF, beta is 1.0, and the tape is neutral-to-mildly-positive. There is no active force - bullish or bearish - pressing hard on CPRT right now. I lean a hair negative only because a quality-compounder with no catalyst mechanism cannot capture any sentiment upside in a rally the way story stocks can, while it still eats the generic rates drag. Net: Balanced, essentially no non-fundamental edge either way.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Whether insurance-claims volume commentary or used-vehicle price data starts driving a fresh bear narrative
  • Any analyst downgrades or target cuts that would introduce tone divergence where none currently exists
  • A sector rotation out of quality-compounders into higher-beta cyclicals that would leave CPRT flat while the tape rallies
  • VIX breakout above 20 which would start to matter even for beta-1 names
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
not run

This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.

The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.562 · 9b2927c4 · 2026-08-22 16:52:06