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AGING Analysis Report
Jun 18, 2026
9 days ago · 93% complete · +8 refreshed

Etsy, Inc.

ETSY NYSE Categories PDF
Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail
New York City, NY 11201, United States IPO 2015 etsy.com Updated Jun 18, 3:00am
Price
$72.83
Market Cap
$6.9B
Employees
2,400
Beta
1.86
Avg Volume
3,032,861
CEO
Joshua G. Silverman
Business Description

Etsy, Inc. oversees online retail platforms designed to link independent merchants with a global customer base. Its primary marketplace is dedicated to unique and handcrafted items, while its Depop division focuses on the resale of apparel. The company's revenue streams largely originate from diverse marketplace fees, such as those for product listings, transactions, and payment processing, as well as from advertising services and optional seller utilities like shipping labels. Furthermore, Etsy administers programs aimed at improving search placement, providing buyer protection for qualifying orders, and offering financial incentives for seller-driven traffic. The enterprise was founded in 2005, formally incorporated as Indieco, Inc. in 2006, and then rebranded as Etsy, Inc. in June of the same year. Its corporate headquarters are located in Brooklyn, New York.

Business History
Generated: May 1, 2026 4:52pm
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 18, 2026 3:00am (9d ago)
$72.83
-0.51 (-0.70%)
Day Range
$72.60 – $75.43
52-Week Range
$44.00 – $76.52
50-Day MA
$63.52
200-Day MA
$59.45
Volume
3,483,442.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $55.00
Consensus $70.88
High $85.00
(109 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 94,896,231.00
Float 93,774,716.00
Free Float 98.8%
High free float — 98.8% of shares trade freely, ~1.2% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 18, 2026 3:05am (9d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 17, 2026 9:28am (9d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 18, 2026 3:01am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
24.61
Stock Price: $72.83
EPS (Diluted): 1.68
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
-4.96
Stock Price: $72.83
Total Equity: -$1.10B
Shares: 123,541,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
16.73
Market Cap: $6.91B
Total Debt: $2.98B
Cash: $1.40B
EBITDA: $367.02M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$7.1B
Market Cap: $6.91B
Total Debt: $2.98B
Cash: $1.40B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
71.6%
Gross Profit: $2.07B
Revenue: $2.88B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
12.8%
Operating Income: $367.91M
Revenue: $2.88B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
5.7%
Net Income: $162.98M
Revenue: $2.88B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
-25.5%
Net Income: $162.98M
Total Equity: -$1.10B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
15.3%
Operating Income: $367.91M
Tax Rate: 33.9%
Equity: -$1.10B
Total Debt: $2.98B
Cash: $1.40B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.44
Current Assets: $1.96B
Current Liabilities: $1.36B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
-2.72
Short-Term Debt: $649.01M
Long-Term Debt: $2.33B
Total Debt: $2.98B
Total Equity: -$1.10B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$23.34
Revenue: $2.88B
Shares: 123,541,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$-8.89
Total Equity: -$1.10B
Shares: 123,541,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$5.17
Operating CF: $693.41M
CapEx: -$54.66M
Shares: 123,541,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.0%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $72.83
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
—
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $162.98M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 18, 2026 3:01am
Compares ETSY against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · three lenses
Three separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-06-18 03:08:18
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Fairly valued mediocre compounder — pass, set a bid in the $50s 7/10
Etsy is a cash-disciplined marketplace going ex-growth at a fair-but-not-cheap price — admire from a distance until the mid-$50s.
The cruxWhether GMS reaccelerates against TikTok Shop and Amazon Handmade — without that, the buyback alone can't justify paying ~18-20x earnings for a flat-lining business.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from ETSY's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionShare Count Shrinking
Earnings QualityGood Earnings Quality
The three lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
-10
Mixed
edge √Σ 112 · risk √Σ 122 · conf 6/10

Etsy is a real cash machine — FCF of $638.8M on $2.88B revenue (~22% FCF margin), gross margin steady at ~71-72%, and OCF/NI of 1.87x with sharply negative accruals (-21.7%) signals clean, high-quality earnings. Management is using that cash aggressively: diluted share count has fallen from 146.7M (2021) to 123.5M (2025), a -4.2% CAGR, with buybacks running 237% of SBC. That is genuine per-share value concentration, not the typical tech 'buyback offsets dilution' charade.

The problem is the underlying business is flat-lining. Revenue went $2.33B → $2.57B → $2.75B → $2.81B → $2.88B — growth has decelerated to ~2.5%. Operating margin has compressed from 20% (2021) to 12.8% (2025), and net income has dropped from $493.5M to $163.0M over the same window despite the buyback tailwind. The marketplace appears to be ex-growth while losing operating leverage, which is concerning for a 'platform' business model that should scale.

Altman Z of 1.57 (distress zone) and net debt of -$1.36B against $1.62B cash reflect prior convert issuances funding the buyback program — financially survivable given $638M FCF, but it removes the cushion. Insider tape is one-sided: 22 sells, 0 buys, $26.4M sold over 12 months, with CEO Silverman exercising and selling on the same day in June 2026. Lawful and routine, but no insider is putting fresh money in.

Strengths 3
m75
Real per-share value concentration
Diluted shares down from 146.7M to 123.5M (-4.2% CAGR); buybacks at 237% of SBC means the company is a genuine net buyer, not running the offset-dilution treadmill.
m70
High-quality cash generation
FCF $638.8M on $2.88B revenue (~22% margin); OCF/NI 1.87x and accruals -21.7% of assets indicate earnings are backed by cash, not estimates. Beneish M -3.45 = no manipulation flag.
m45
Asset-light marketplace economics
Gross margin stable at 71.6%, capital-light model — the business doesn't need heavy reinvestment to throw off cash.
Concerns 5
m70
Revenue has effectively stalled
Revenue growth decelerated from ~10% to ~2.5%, with 2025 at $2.88B vs $2.75B in 2023 — the marketplace flywheel is no longer compounding GMS/take-rate meaningfully.
m65
Operating margin compression
Op margin fell from 20% (2021) to 12.8% (2025); net income halved from $303M (2024) to $163M (2025) despite flat revenue — fixed-cost deleverage or rising competitive spend.
m55
Net debt funding the buyback
Net cash -$1.36B (cash $1.62B vs ~$3B debt) and Altman Z 1.57 in distress zone. Survivable given FCF, but the balance sheet has been levered to buy back stock — a choice that removes optionality.
m35
One-sided insider tape
0 buys, 22 sells totaling $26.4M over 12 months; CEO doing same-day exercise-and-sell. Lawful but no insider is signaling conviction with fresh capital.
m40
SBC still 8.5% of revenue
Even with net buybacks, SBC at 8.5% of revenue is a real ongoing cost that the buybacks must keep absorbing — only viable as long as FCF holds.
This is a Jekyll-and-Hyde business. The cash quality, the buyback discipline, and the clean accruals are genuinely admirable — most companies this size don't actually shrink their share count by 4% a year while funding 8.5%-of-revenue SBC. But the engine underneath is sputtering: revenue is flat, op margin has been cut in a third, and net income is sliding even as the share base shrinks. A great marketplace at maturity should compound at GDP+ with expanding margins; Etsy is doing the opposite. The leveraged balance sheet to fund buybacks is a defensible capital-allocation choice only if the cash flows hold — and that's the open question. I'd call it a Solid cash-cow being managed for shareholders, but with a quality trajectory that's deteriorating, not improving. Mixed feels right.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • GMS (gross merchandise sales) trend and active buyer/seller counts — is the marketplace shrinking on a unit basis under the flat revenue?
  • Take-rate trajectory — is revenue holding only because Etsy is raising the take rate on a shrinking GMS base?
  • Composition and maturity of the ~$3B debt — convertible notes? When do they come due, and at what conversion prices?
  • Segment breakdown: Etsy core vs Depop vs Reverb — is the core marketplace declining while smaller properties mask it?
  • Competitive context vs Shein/Temu/Amazon Handmade pressure on the handmade/vintage category
  • Detail behind the 2025 net income drop ($303M → $163M) — one-time charges or structural margin reset?
Valuation / Mispricing
-16
Fairly Valued
edge √Σ 46 · risk √Σ 62 · conf 6/10
Price $72.83 vs deserved ~$68-75 — inside the margin of error, no edge either way. attractive below $56.00

The e2e synthesis lands at 'Reasonable Premium,' which lines up with the tape: at $72.83 the market is paying roughly 18-20x trailing earnings for a cash-generative marketplace whose GMS and revenue have flatlined and whose operating margin has been cut by roughly a third from peak. That's not a heroic multiple, but it isn't a distressed one either — it embeds a soft assumption that Etsy reignites GMS growth or holds take-rate without losing sellers, which is exactly the contested point in the narrative.

Deserved value, after adjusting for the Mixed quality grade (-10), is probably in the high-$60s to high-$70s: cash-generative, disciplined buybacks (4% annual share shrink) and clean earnings quality push deserved value up, but flat revenue, decaying net income, leverage on the balance sheet, and ~8.5%-of-revenue SBC drag it back down. With the stock at $72.83 that puts the gap inside the noise — call it +/- 10%. I see no margin of safety, but I also don't see the kind of priced-for-perfection setup that screams short. This is the textbook 'fairly valued' verdict.

To get genuinely interesting on valuation alone, I'd want the multiple to compress toward a high-single-digit FCF yield with the buyback still running — roughly a mid-$50s handle. Above $85 it starts pricing in a re-acceleration the numbers don't yet support.

Cheap signals 2
m35
Buyback compounds the per-share math
~4% annual share count reduction means even flat aggregate FCF translates to mid-single-digit per-share FCF growth, quietly improving deserved value over time.
m30
Cash-generative marketplace at a reasonable FCF yield
A capital-light fee model on a $6.9B cap implies a high-single-digit FCF yield — not screaming cheap, but defensible for a #1-in-category platform.
Rich / priced-in 3
m45
Multiple assumes growth that isn't there
Revenue is flat and net income is sliding; paying ~18-20x earnings requires believing GMS reaccelerates against TikTok Shop and Amazon Handmade — that re-acceleration is not in the numbers.
m35
SBC and leverage erode the headline FCF
Stock-based comp at ~8.5% of revenue is a real cost the buyback is partly mopping up, and the balance sheet carries net debt — both lower the quality-adjusted deserved price.
m25
Depop/resale optionality is being credited but not earned
Bull case leans on optionality that has not shown returns; deserved value shouldn't pay for it until the segment economics turn.
This is fairly valued and I'd leave it alone. The buyback discipline and cash generation are real, but I'm not paying ~18-20x earnings for a marketplace whose top line has stopped growing and whose competitive moat is being actively tested. I need it in the mid-$50s before the margin of safety is wide enough to overlook the stalled growth — and I'd be a seller if it rerated above $85 without a GMS inflection.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Forward GMS and active-buyer trajectory in the next print — any stabilization changes the deserved multiple meaningfully
  • Take-rate trend and any seller backlash metrics (churn, listings) that would hit fee revenue
  • Updated buyback authorization pace vs SBC dilution — net share count change is the real per-share lever
  • Segment disclosure on Depop/Reverb profitability — losses here are dragging consolidated margin
  • Net debt and interest expense given the leveraged balance sheet flagged by quality lens
General Sentiment
-72
Headwind
tail √Σ 40 · head √Σ 112 · conf 6/10

The macro tape is officially neutral, but the underlying mix - 10y at 4.49%, VIX elevated vs its trailing year, and a tagged macro-headwind regime - punches above its weight on a name like ETSY with beta 1.86, consumer-discretionary exposure, and a platform-monopoly story whose durability is only moderate. This is exactly the cohort that gets sold first when risk appetite wobbles, even if nothing has changed at the company. The 2.4% revenue CAGR and -5.5pp three-year deceleration give the bear narrative (TikTok Shop, Amazon Handmade, seller fee fatigue, Depop ROI questions) live ammunition, while the bull marketplace-moat story has lost intensity without a clear re-acceleration catalyst. Analyst tone is the one offset: still Buy-skewed (22 Buys vs 3 Sells) and the consensus target ($71.2) sits essentially at spot ($73.30), meaning the sell-side has not chased the name down - but with zero revisions this month, that stance looks stale rather than supportive. The divergence (backward-looking Buys vs a fading growth narrative and a rate-pressured tape) typically resolves by analysts catching down, not the stock catching up. Net: modest but real headwind pressure, more about who owns this archetype in this tape than about Etsy itself.

Tailwinds 1
m40
Sell-side still constructive
22 Buys vs 3 Sells with target essentially at spot caps downside conviction on the desk; even stale, this anchors the tape and discourages aggressive shorts.
Headwinds 5
m60
High beta into a jittery tape
Beta 1.86 with VIX above its trailing-year median means even a neutral S&P drift translates into amplified drawdowns here; risk-off flickers hit this name 2x harder than the index.
m55
Rate-sensitive consumer discretionary
10y at 4.49% pressures long-duration growth multiples and squeezes the discretionary spend that fuels Etsy's GMV - a double hit for a specialty-retail platform.
m55
Narrative durability slipping
Platform-monopoly story is still strong in intensity but only moderate in durability, with TikTok Shop and Amazon Handmade actively reframing the moat as porous - the kind of story that de-rates quietly, not violently.
m45
Deceleration feeds the bear
2.4% CAGR and -5.5pp three-year growth slowdown give the post-pandemic-hangover narrative free oxygen; momentum is neutral, not a tailwind to lean on.
m30
Stale analyst tone, divergence risk
Zero revisions this month while the narrative softens is a setup for catch-down downgrades, not upgrades - the kind of divergence that resolves negatively.
My read: this is not a story being actively destroyed, but it is a story quietly losing the room - moderate-durability platform narrative, decelerating growth, no fresh catalyst - and it is sitting in the worst seat for this tape (beta 1.86, consumer discretionary, rate-sensitive). The Buy-skewed sell-side is the only thing keeping this from a Strong Headwind read, and that support looks stale. Net pressure leans down; I would not fight the tape here even if the business and price screen fine on other lenses.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Any Q-print or KPI that re-accelerates GMV/active buyers - would revive the moat story
  • Sell-side revisions: first downgrade or target cut would confirm the catch-down risk
  • TikTok Shop / Amazon Handmade share-of-wallet datapoints in handmade and resale
  • Rate path: a decisive move below 4.25% on the 10y would lift this whole cohort
  • VIX behavior: sustained drop below 15 would mute the high-beta penalty
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
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Three lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), and General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 18, 2026 3:04:53 am

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 17, 2026 9:28am (9d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $2.3B $2.6B $2.7B $2.8B $2.9B
Cost of Revenue $654.5M $744.6M $828.7M $774.6M $817.8M
Gross Profit $1.7B $1.8B $1.9B $2.0B $2.1B
Operating Expenses $1.2B $2.5B $1.6B $1.7B $1.7B
Operating Income $465.7M -$658.6M $279.8M $380.2M $367.9M
Net Income $493.5M -$694.3M $307.6M $303.3M $163.0M
EBITDA $555.8M -$551.1M $398.2M $532.7M $367.0M
EPS $3.88 $-5.48 $2.56 $2.64 $1.68
EPS (Diluted) — — — — —
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 16, 2026 4:59pm (10d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $780.2M $921.3M $914.3M $811.2M $1.4B
Total Current Assets $1.3B $1.5B $1.6B $1.3B $2.0B
Total Assets $3.8B $2.6B $2.7B $2.4B $2.8B
Current Liabilities $615.6M $631.8M $710.8M $665.1M $1.4B
Long-Term Debt $2.3B $2.3B $2.3B $2.3B $2.3B
Total Liabilities $3.2B $3.2B $3.2B $3.2B $3.9B
Total Equity $628.6M -$547.3M -$543.7M -$758.9M -$1.1B
Retained Earnings $71.7M -$1.0B -$1.4B -$1.8B -$2.4B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 17, 2026 9:28am (9d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $651.6M $683.6M $705.5M $752.5M $693.4M
Capital Expenditure -$30.1M -$37.2M -$39.9M -$43.5M -$54.7M
Free Cash Flow $621.4M $646.4M $665.6M $709.0M $638.8M
Acquisitions (net) -$1.7B $0 $0 $0 $100.5M
Debt Repayment — — — — —
Dividends Paid — — — — —
Stock Buybacks -$302.8M -$425.7M -$577.0M -$723.9M -$776.9M
Net Change in Cash -$463.9M $141.1M -$12.3M -$103.1M $593.2M
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 18, 2026 3:00am (9d ago)
Metric 2027 2028 2029 2030
Revenue $2.9B
$2.8B – $3.0B
 $3.0B
$3.0B – $3.0B
 $3.2B
$3.1B – $3.3B
 $3.3B
$3.2B – $3.4B
EBITDA $281.0M
$271.3M – $290.7M
 $293.6M
$292.8M – $294.3M
 $310.2M
$302.0M – $321.4M
 $323.4M
$314.8M – $335.1M
Net Income $448.7M
$397.9M – $642.4M
 $486.8M
$454.6M – $714.8M
 $697.2M
$673.3M – $730.0M
 $787.6M
$760.6M – $824.6M
EPS — — — —
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 17, 2026 9:28am (9d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +10.2% +7.1% +2.2% +2.7%
Gross Profit Growth +8.8% +5.4% +5.9% +1.6%
Operating Income Growth -241.4% +142.5% +35.9% -3.2%
Net Income Growth -240.7% +144.3% -1.4% -46.3%
EBITDA Growth -199.2% +172.3% +33.8% -31.1%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 18, 2026 3:05am (9d ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-06-24 Silverman Josh M-Exempt 97,389.00 $10.62 $1.0M
2026-06-24 Silverman Josh M-Exempt 97,389.00 $10.62 $1.0M
2026-06-24 Silverman Josh S-Sale 97,389.00 $79.00 $7.7M
2026-06-17 REIFF MELISSA S-Sale 3,544.00 $75.00 $265,800
2026-06-15 Silverman Josh M-Exempt 50,000.00 $10.62 $531,000
2026-06-16 Silverman Josh M-Exempt 52,479.00 $10.62 $557,327
2026-06-16 Silverman Josh M-Exempt 52,479.00 $10.62 $557,327
2026-06-15 Silverman Josh M-Exempt 50,000.00 $10.62 $531,000
2026-06-16 Silverman Josh S-Sale 52,479.00 $74.00 $3.9M
2026-06-15 Silverman Josh S-Sale 50,000.00 $72.50 $3.6M
2026-06-09 WILSON FREDERICK R A-Award 9,904.00 $68.76 $680,999
2026-06-09 REIFF MELISSA M-Exempt 4,733.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-09 REIFF MELISSA A-Award 3,921.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-09 REIFF MELISSA M-Exempt 4,733.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-09 BURNS M MICHELE M-Exempt 4,733.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-09 BURNS M MICHELE A-Award 3,921.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-09 BURNS M MICHELE M-Exempt 4,733.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-09 Blow Marla J M-Exempt 4,733.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-09 Blow Marla J A-Award 3,921.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-09 Blow Marla J M-Exempt 4,733.00 $0.00 $0
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for ETSY — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-18 03:05:32
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict Modestly overvalued — high-quality FCF ($639M, 22% margin) doesn't offset 2.4% revenue CAGR and competitive decay; fair value $60-65, wait for a pullback or a growth inflection before buying.

Looking at the raw numbers first: Etsy is doing $2.88B revenue with $638.8M FCF — a 22% FCF margin that most "platforms" would kill for. But revenue CAGR is 2.4% over five years, and the 2021 print ($2.33B with $493M NI) versus 2025 ($2.88B with $163M NI) tells the real story: revenue grew 24% cumulatively while net income fell 67%. That's not maturation, that's margin erosion masked by GMV stability. The quarterly trajectory looks better on the surface — Q1'26 at $631M vs Q1'25 at $612M (+3.1%), Q4'25 at $881M vs Q4'24 at $852M (+3.4%) — but you're paying 24x earnings and ~11x FCF for sub-4% top-line growth. The Q1'25 net loss of -$52M is a red flag the synthesis glosses over; even with Q1'26 recovery to $69.7M NI, the volatility suggests the cost structure isn't as fixed/scalable as platform bulls claim.

Where I disagree with the prior models: the Market Forces signal calling this "catastrophic market share loss" with an "over-leveraged balance sheet" is overcooked. Etsy has $1.4B cash and generates $639M FCF annually — that's not over-leveraged, that's a fortress. The negative book value (driving the -4.96 P/B) is from aggressive buybacks, not distress; they've been retiring stock at the expense of equity, which is shareholder-friendly capital return, not a solvency issue. Meanwhile the Synthesis "Reasonable Premium" verdict is too generous in the other direction — calling 10.6% implied FCF growth "achievable" when actual FCF CAGR is -2% and earnings CAGR is -27% requires heroic assumptions about margin recovery. Both extremes are wrong; the truth is a high-quality cash machine in secular decline relative to TikTok Shop, Shein, Amazon Handmade, and Temu.

The contrarian case worth taking seriously: at 11x FCF, you're not paying for growth — you're paying for the cash flow. If Etsy simply holds GMV flat and keeps buying back stock with $600M+ annual FCF, the per-share math works even with zero revenue growth. Market cap $6.91B / FCF $639M = ~9% FCF yield. That's a real number. The bear case requires not just competitive pressure but actual FCF decline, and so far the cash generation has been remarkably resilient even as GAAP earnings whipsaw. The insider selling is concerning but the M-Exempt/S-Sale pattern (50,000 and 52,479 share blocks on consecutive days) looks like scheduled 10b5-1 option exercises, not panic selling — the prior models flagging "unanimous insider selling" as a value-trap signal is reading too much into routine executive comp mechanics.

Where the data is thin: we have no debt figure ("Total debt: —"), which matters because Etsy carried ~$2.3B convertibles last I checked — at 9% FCF yield that changes the EV math materially (EV/EBITDA at 16.7x already reflects this). The ROE of -25% is meaningless given negative book value. The 2022 -$694M loss was a Depop/Elo7 impairment, not operations, so excluding it the business has earned $160-307M every year. My read: this is neither the headwind death-spiral Market Forces describes nor the comeback story Synthesis hedges toward. It's a melting ice cube with a very large bucket — quality cash flows from a structurally challenged marketplace. Fair value with no growth and current FCF discounted at 10% is roughly $60-65/share assuming flat FCF in perpetuity; you'd need a credible re-acceleration story to justify $73. I dissent from "Reasonable Premium" — at $72.83 this is modestly overvalued, not fairly valued, and the insider activity plus competitive landscape argue for patience over conviction. Wait for sub-$60 or a Q4 GMV print that breaks the 3% growth ceiling.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-18 03:05:43
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I agree with Opus — Etsy is modestly overvalued at $72.83; my fair value estimate aligns at $60-65, based on strong cash flow but weak growth outlook.

Etsy's financials paint a mixed picture. Revenue has been steady, reaching $2.88 billion in 2025, but the real concern is the decline in net income from $493.5 million in 2021 to $163 million in 2025. Margins have compressed, with net margins dropping from 21.1% in 2021 to just 5.6% in the trailing twelve months. The free cash flow remains strong at $638.8 million, supported by a high gross margin of 71.6%, but growth is tepid with a revenue CAGR of just 2.4%. The market is valuing Etsy at a P/S ratio of 1.8883, which is reasonable given its revenue stability, but the negative P/B ratio highlights a concerning negative book value.

Opus argues that Etsy is "modestly overvalued" at its current price, citing its high-quality free cash flow but weak revenue growth and competitive challenges. I agree with Opus that the company's cash flow is a strong point; however, I diverge on the interpretation of competitive pressures. The Market Forces signal suggests "catastrophic market share loss," which Opus critiques as exaggerated. I concur with Opus that Etsy's $1.4 billion cash balance and robust free cash flow don't indicate an over-leveraged balance sheet. The narrative that competitive pressures from platforms like TikTok Shop and Amazon Handmade are leading to a collapse seems overstated given Etsy's consistent cash generation capabilities.

Opus also notes the insider transactions as routine executive compensation mechanics rather than panic selling, a point I agree with. The pattern of M-Exempt and S-Sale transactions suggests planned sales rather than a response to any immediate business distress. However, I find the "reasonable premium" verdict by the synthesis overly optimistic. Given the actual financial performance, particularly the negative earnings CAGR of -27.2%, the expectation of a 10.6% FCF growth seems overly optimistic without clear evidence of a turnaround in revenue growth or margin expansion.

A careful skeptic might argue that our analyses are downplaying the potential for a platform like Etsy to pivot successfully or leverage new growth opportunities, such as international expansion or strategic acquisitions. They might also point out the potential for further market penetration and the strength of Etsy's brand among its niche audience, which could mitigate some competitive pressures.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.352 · d1100787 · 2026-06-26 11:39:30