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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for FedEx Corporation (FDX) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Low · Gem Score -20 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 22 · Value -54 · Sentiment 0 (timing only, not weighted)
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
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FedEx Corporation
FDX NYSEFedEx Corporation is a global transportation and logistics company that provides express delivery, freight, and supply chain services for businesses and consumers. FedEx Corporation organizes its operations across major segments that support package and parcel shipping, air and ground transport, less-than-truckload freight, and integrated logistics solutions. Its services are used by companies of all sizes to move time-sensitive shipments, manage distribution networks, and support cross-border commerce, while consumers rely on its delivery network for fast and reliable shipping. The company also offers e-commerce and business services that help customers streamline fulfillment, tracking, and transportation management. Headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee, FedEx Corporation plays a central role in global trade and the movement of goods across retail, industrial, healthcare, and technology markets.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 18.55
Total Equity: $31.65B
Shares: 239,000,000
Total Debt: $24.04B
Cash: $13.31B
EBITDA: $9.83B
Total Debt: $24.04B
Cash: $13.31B
Revenue: $94.72B
Revenue: $94.72B
Revenue: $94.72B
Total Equity: $31.65B
Tax Rate: 23.5%
Equity: $31.65B
Total Debt: $24.04B
Cash: $13.31B
Current Liabilities: $18.91B
Long-Term Debt: $23.29B
Total Debt: $24.04B
Total Equity: $31.65B
Shares: 239,000,000
Shares: 239,000,000
CapEx: -$3.81B
Shares: 239,000,000
Stock Price: $323.08
Net Income: $4.43B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 11:55am (12d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $93.5B | $90.2B | $87.7B | $87.9B | $94.7B |
| Cost of Revenue | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gross Profit | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Expenses | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Income | $6.2B | $4.9B | $5.6B | $5.2B | $5.5B |
| Net Income | $3.8B | $4.0B | $4.3B | $4.1B | $4.4B |
| EBITDA | $10.2B | $9.1B | $9.8B | $9.5B | $9.8B |
| EPS | $14.54 | $15.60 | $17.41 | $16.96 | $18.71 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $14.33 | $15.48 | $17.21 | $16.81 | $18.55 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 11:33am (12d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $6.9B | $6.9B | $6.5B | $5.5B | $13.3B |
| Total Current Assets | $20.4B | $18.6B | $18.2B | $18.4B | $27.9B |
| Total Assets | $86.0B | $87.1B | $87.0B | $87.6B | $98.9B |
| Current Liabilities | $14.3B | $13.6B | $13.4B | $15.4B | $18.9B |
| Long-Term Debt | — | — | — | $19.2B | $23.3B |
| Total Liabilities | $61.1B | $61.1B | $59.4B | $59.6B | $67.3B |
| Total Equity | $24.9B | $26.1B | $27.6B | $28.1B | $31.6B |
| Retained Earnings | $32.8B | $35.3B | $38.6B | $41.4B | $44.5B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 11:55am (12d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $9.8B | $8.8B | $8.3B | $7.0B | $8.9B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$6.8B | -$6.2B | -$5.2B | -$4.1B | -$3.8B |
| Free Cash Flow | $3.1B | $2.7B | $3.1B | $3.0B | $5.1B |
| Acquisitions (net) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | -$161.0M | -$152.0M | -$147.0M | -$157.0M | $3.2B |
| Dividends Paid | -$793.0M | -$1.2B | -$1.3B | -$1.3B | -$1.4B |
| Stock Buybacks | -$2.2B | -$1.5B | -$2.5B | -$3.0B | -$796.0M |
| Net Change in Cash | -$190.0M | -$41.0M | -$355.0M | -$999.0M | $7.8B |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 11:55am (12d ago)| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | -3.6% | -2.7% | +0.3% | +7.7% |
| Gross Profit Growth | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Income Growth | -21.3% | +13.2% | -6.2% | +4.7% |
| Net Income Growth | +3.8% | +9.0% | -5.5% | +8.3% |
| EBITDA Growth | -11.0% | +8.3% | -3.7% | +3.7% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 11:35am (12d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | $1.22 | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-09 | $1.45 | — | — | — |
| 2025-12-15 | $1.45 | — | — | — |
| 2025-09-08 | $1.45 | — | — | — |
| 2025-06-23 | $1.45 | — | — | — |
| 2025-03-10 | $1.38 | — | — | — |
| 2024-12-09 | $1.38 | — | — | — |
| 2024-09-09 | $1.38 | — | — | — |
| 2024-06-24 | $1.38 | — | — | — |
| 2024-03-08 | $1.26 | — | — | — |
| 2023-12-08 | $1.26 | — | — | — |
| 2023-09-08 | $1.26 | — | — | — |
| 2023-06-09 | $1.26 | — | — | — |
| 2023-03-10 | $1.15 | — | — | — |
| 2022-12-09 | $1.15 | — | — | — |
| 2022-09-01 | $1.15 | — | — | — |
| 2022-06-24 | $1.15 | — | — | — |
| 2022-03-04 | $0.75 | — | — | — |
| 2021-12-10 | $0.75 | — | — | — |
| 2021-09-02 | $0.75 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
AI Lens 4th lens · how AI reaches this business · 5-yr
2026-08-11Route optimization, dynamic load-building, automated sortation and AI-driven customer service attack FedEx's biggest cost buckets (linehaul, last-mile labor, call centers) where a 100bp margin gain is a ~17% earnings swing at 5.8% OpM.
Parcel pricing is bid on a per-package basis by sophisticated shippers; if AI-enabled rate-shopping agents and TMS platforms make carrier substitution frictionless, cost savings pass straight to shippers instead of shareholders.
Whether DRIVE/Network 2.0-style AI cost-out shows up as durable operating margin expansion or gets absorbed by yield decline — watch composite yield per package versus cost per package quarter to quarter.
Aircraft fleet, air route authorities, thousands of sort facilities, customs brokerage scale and last-mile density — physically and financially unreproducible by software.
AI Lens thesis
FedEx sells physical movement with legal and time guarantees, a need AI cannot dematerialize; its AI exposure is almost entirely internal-cost and intermediation, not substitution. Cheap intelligence compresses the coordination layer FedEx has historically monetized (planning, brokerage, service, network design) while leaving the asset base intact, so the structural question is whether FedEx converts AI-driven cost reduction into margin or into share-gaining price concessions in a declining-revenue industry. Its data (billions of scans, transit-time histories, address quality) is genuinely useful for prediction, and its density advantage compounds with better optimization; but the monetized unit — the package — is fungible, and AI agents that auto-select carriers erode the relationship premium. Net: modest positive, with the upside concentrated in cost per package rather than revenue.
What the market may be underestimating
Upside Air network optimization and dynamic capacity matching could structurally raise asset utilization on the express fleet — the single most capital-heavy, historically underutilized part of the company.
Downside AI-native freight brokers and shipper-side agents commoditize the LTL and logistics segments' pricing, hollowing the higher-margin non-parcel businesses FedEx is counting on for mix improvement.
Outcome range spread 39
Claude Reading
Looking at the raw numbers first: FDX quarterly revenue has quietly re-accelerated — $21.58B → $22.24B → $22.16B → $22.22B → $22.24B → $23.47B → $24.00B → $25.01B. That's a genuine sequential build, and the May 2026 quarter at $25.01B with 6.4% net margin ($1.60B) is the strongest print in the series. FY26 revenue $94.72B is a new high vs the FY22 peak of $93.51B, and NI of $4.43B beats FY22's $3.83B on lower margin base. Operating margin 5.77% annual is still mediocre for a logistics franchise — UPS historically ran double this — but the trajectory is unambiguously upward. FCF $5.12B on $76.9B market cap = 6.7% FCF yield, and 27.7% FCF CAGR is real. Debt/equity 0.76 with $13.3B cash against $24B debt is fine for a capex-heavy carrier.
Where I part ways with the synthesis: calling this "fair value" at $317.94 composite feels lazily centered on the current tape. The pre-flight note flags the stock ran from $177 to $323 (+82%) — that's the entire story the composite is glossing over. At 17.4x earnings and 8.9x EV/EBITDA, FDX is now trading at a premium to its own historical mid-teens multiple in a business where structural questions (Amazon in-sourcing, Ground margin compression, USPS contract loss echoing) haven't been resolved, just deferred. The market-forces model's "mid-single-digit ceiling" concern is more important than the synthesis credits: if terminal growth is 3-4% and operating margin caps around 6-7%, DCF math doesn't support a re-rating from here. The narrative model correctly notes this is a boring compounder with no cult premium — which means there's no narrative cushion when the next cyclical shipping downturn hits.
The contrarian bear case that nobody has articulated forcefully: revenue CAGR of 3.9% over five years with earnings CAGR of just 1.2% means FDX has been running to stand still. The recent YoY acceleration (7.7% rev, 8.3% earnings) is coming off a soft comp (FY24 was $87.69B, below FY22's $93.51B), so this looks more like cyclical mean-reversion than structural improvement. ROIC of 9.87% barely clears cost of capital for a capital-intensive carrier — this is not a compounder, it's a utility with cyclicality. The DRIVE cost program benefits are largely harvested; incremental gains get harder. Insider activity shows option exercises immediately sold on 6/30 — not damning, but zero open-market buying at $323 despite management having the best view. The award-heavy pattern is routine comp, not conviction.
Committing: I dissent modestly from the "fair value" verdict and lean overvalued. Fair value on my math — 15x normalized EPS of ~$18-19 (FY26 run-rate adjusted for cyclical peak) — is closer to $275-290, not $317. The FCF yield of 6.7% is attractive in isolation but requires believing capex stays at $3.8B (it won't if Amazon forces network reinvestment) and that pricing holds through the next freight cycle trough. I'd want to buy this sub-$260 where the margin of safety compensates for structural risk, or wait for a Q1/Q2 FY27 print that either confirms $25B+ is the new baseline or reveals it was a one-quarter peak. At $323, you're paying for execution that's already visible in the tape and taking Amazon/cyclical risk for a ~7% forward return. Not a short — the FCF and dividend are real — but not where fresh capital belongs.
GPT Reading
What stands out is that FedEx is not really a growth story at all; it is a margin-repair and cash-yield story, and the market is already paying for a good part of that repair. Revenue has climbed from $87.69B in FY2024 to $94.72B in FY2026, a respectable 8.0% two-year gain, but that mostly recovers prior stagnation: FY2022 revenue was still higher at $93.51B. Net income at $4.43B in FY2026 is only modestly above $4.09B in FY2025 and $4.33B in FY2024, so after four years of operational turbulence the earnings power looks improved but not transformed. The quarterly pattern is encouraging on the surface — revenue rose from $21.58B in the August 2024 quarter to $25.01B in May 2026, and net margin improved from 3.7% to 6.4% — but the crucial point is that FedEx remains a low-margin business even after the restructuring effort. A 5.8% operating margin and 4.7% net margin on the full year do not justify paying a premium multiple unless investors believe there is still meaningful room to expand.
Cash generation is the strongest part of the case, but even there the numbers argue for discipline rather than enthusiasm. Operating cash flow of $8.93B and free cash flow of $5.12B on $76.91B of market cap is solid, roughly a 6.7% FCF yield, and capex of $3.81B looks manageable for a network this large. Net debt is only about $10.7B after offsetting $24.04B of debt with $13.31B of cash, so the balance sheet is not a problem. On valuation, 17.4x earnings, 8.9x EV/EBITDA, and 0.93x EV/revenue are not excessive in absolute terms, but they are full for a company whose five-year earnings CAGR is barely above 1% and whose ROIC is under 10%. That combination says the stock is no bargain at $323. The market is treating recent execution as the new normal, when the longer record says this company oscillates around middling growth and thin margins.
The real contradiction in the bullish framing is that recent quarterly momentum looks better than the annual economics. The latest four quarters produced $94.72B of revenue and $4.43B of net income, but compared with FY2022’s $93.51B revenue and $6.25B operating income, FedEx is still not back to prior peak operating efficiency. In other words, investors are rewarding a recovery that remains incomplete. If I annualize the latest quarter’s 6.4% net margin mentally, I can see why bulls are optimistic; but logistics margins are seasonally and macro sensitive, and a company like this does not deserve to be valued off one strong quarter. At 2.44x book and with a 1.46% dividend yield, shareholders are not being paid a huge current income stream to wait for the next leg of improvement either. This looks closer to a quality cyclical at fair-to-slightly-rich pricing than to a mispriced compounder.
The best case against my view is straightforward: the business may be in the middle of a genuine structural earnings reset, and the annual statements are lagging that reality. Revenue growth has accelerated to 7.7% year over year recently, earnings growth to 8.3%, and free cash flow appears much better than the meager earnings CAGR suggests. If FedEx can hold revenue around $95B-$98B while lifting operating margin from 5.8% toward even 7%, operating income would move from $5.46B to roughly $6.7B, which would make today’s valuation look undemanding. The debt load is acceptable, liquidity is fine with a 1.48 current ratio, and the insider tape is basically noise rather than a red flag. A smart bull would say the market is not overpaying for blue-sky growth; it is paying a middle-of-the-road multiple for a company finally getting its network costs under control. I weigh that argument less heavily because FedEx has already rerated hard, and the burden of proof is now on sustaining margin gains through a less forgiving macro backdrop.
What would change my mind is not another decent quarter, but evidence that the margin gains are durable and not merely cyclical. If FedEx can deliver a full-year operating margin above 6.5%, free cash flow comfortably above $6B, and net income trending toward $5B without needing revenue growth much above mid-single digits, then $323 would look reasonable and perhaps cheap. Conversely, if revenue stalls back near $90B-$92B or quarterly net margins slip back into the 3%-4% range, the stock should not hold a high-teens P/E. At today’s price, I think the market is already leaning toward the optimistic outcome.
Grok Reading
The numbers tell a story of a cyclical recovery that is real but already well-recognized. FedEx just posted fiscal 2026 revenue of $94.72B, a clean high-water mark that finally cleared the 2022 peak of $93.51B after two years of airfreight hangover; sequential quarters marched steadily from $22.24B to $25.01B and recent revenue growth of 7.7% is the best print in the set. Free cash flow of $5.12B on $8.93B of operating cash flow is the standout—FCF CAGR of 27.7% dwarfs the 3.9% revenue CAGR and the anemic 1.2% earnings CAGR—because capex has been held to $3.81B while the network is being sweated harder. Net income of $4.43B and a 6.4% net margin in the May quarter look healthy versus the mid-3% troughs of prior years, yet operating income at $5.46B still sits below both 2022’s $6.25B and 2024’s $5.56B despite higher sales. That gap is the tell: volume and cost actions are restoring cash conversion faster than true economic profitability. At $323 with a 17.4x PE, 8.9x EV/EBITDA, 0.82x sales and a 6.7% FCF yield, the market is paying a full multiple for a mature earner whose ROIC is only 9.9% and whose operating margin is still 5.8%.
The balance sheet supports the cash story without drama—$13.3B cash against $24.0B debt leaves net leverage modest relative to $5B-plus FCF, equity of $31.7B and a 0.76 debt-to-equity ratio keep the 1.5% dividend and 31% payout comfortable. Insider activity is noise (option exercises and routine awards). What the quantitative models label “fair value near $312–318” is directionally right; the roughly 3–4% premium at $323 is small in absolute terms but meaningful once you notice that earnings power has not yet reclaimed the prior cycle peak and that the stock has already doubled from the $177 lows. Structural mix shift away from high-margin express toward denser, lower-yield ground and e-commerce freight remains visible in the stubborn gap between revenue recovery and operating-income recovery.
The strongest counter-argument is straightforward: FCF quality is excellent, the trailing twelve-month trajectory shows operating leverage reappearing (margins climbing from 3.7% to 6.4% across the fiscal year), and a mid-single-digit grower throwing off a 6–7% free-cash-flow yield with a covered dividend rarely stays cheap for long if restructuring savings stick. A bull would also note that Amazon’s logistics build-out has been priced as an existential threat for years without collapsing FedEx’s network economics, and that international plus B2B freight still provide ballast the pure e-commerce players lack. I weigh that case as real but incomplete: ROIC under 10% in a capital-intensive industry leaves little margin of safety if volumes soften, and an 82% rally has already capitalized most of the visible efficiency gains. Paying 17x earnings for 4% top-line growth and still-sub-peak operating profit is not a bargain; it is a fair price that becomes expensive on any disappointment.
I would flip to a clearer undervalued stance if the next two quarters deliver operating margins sustainably above 7% while revenue growth holds near 7–8%, or if FCF stays above $5.5B with ROIC pushing through 12%. Conversely, a return to sub-5% operating margins, a visible share loss in ground volumes, or FCF falling back under $4B would confirm the stock is priced for a recovery that has already peaked.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
FedEx is a scaled, self-funding logistics operator: FY2026 revenue of $94.72B rebounded from a multi-year plateau ($87-93B), and FCF stepped up materially to $5.12B from $2.98B a year prior. Operating margin sits at 5.8%, roughly in the 5.4-6.7% band it has occupied for five years - profitable and stable but structurally thin, reflecting a capital-intensive network business rather than a moat-rich franchise. Earnings integrity is clean: accruals -5% of assets, OCF/NI at 2.09x, and Altman Z of 2.56 (grey but not distressed). No mechanical red flags. Capital discipline is a genuine strength. Diluted share count has fallen from 266M (2022) to 239M (2026), a -2.6% CAGR, with buyback/SBC at 1161% - management is meaningfully concentrating per-share ownership while SBC is just 0.2% of revenue, unusually low for a company this size. Net debt of $10.73B against $13.31B liquid cash means the balance sheet is a constraint, not a cushion, but $5B+ FCF comfortably services it. Insider tape is neutral: routine awards and one small option-exercise sale, no directional signal. The business state is healthy and well-run, not fortress - thin margins and net leverage cap the ceiling.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Composition of the FY26 FCF jump - is it sustainable margin/DRIVE savings or a one-time capex/working-capital swing?
- Ground/Express segment margin trajectory and network consolidation progress post-DRIVE
- Debt maturity ladder and pension obligations against the $10.73B net debt figure
- Impact of USPS contract expiration and Amazon insourcing on B2C volumes
- FDX Freight spin-off status and any resulting capital structure changes
The e2e composite fair value of $317.94 and signal-adjusted $311.73 sit within 3% of the $321.96 price - the definition of fairly valued. The underlying methods disagree wildly: DCF says $184.51 and EPV floor $196.61 (both implying ~40% overvaluation), while anchored P/E throws out $706 (implying the stock should double). That $706 anchored-PE print is almost certainly a runaway output extrapolating peak multiples onto normalized earnings - I discount it heavily. Weighted toward the more disciplined DCF/EPV cluster, deserved value is probably closer to $240-280, not $320. Earnings quality is high (no haircut needed) and the business is Solid, which supports paying a reasonable multiple - but not a premium. What is priced in at $322: continued margin normalization toward 6-7%, stable revenue, sustained buybacks, and no cyclical air pocket. That is the bull narrative fully embedded. There is no margin of safety here and no compensation for the bear risks (Amazon insourcing, regional carrier pressure, macro sensitivity on a 5-6% margin, $10B+ net debt network). I would need a mid-teens discount to the current price before the risk/reward tilts favorably.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Forward operating margin guidance and DRIVE cost program run-rate savings actually flowing through
- Ground segment volume trends and pricing versus regional carriers
- Buyback pace and net debt trajectory
- Any one-time gains or restructuring credits inflating recent EPS
FDX sits under a mostly neutral sentiment tape. The market regime is modestly risk-on with VIX at 15.5 and the S&P near highs, which is a gentle positive for a 1.36-beta industrial - but the narrative here is 'steady compounder' with minimal intensity, so FDX is not the kind of name that catches strong updrafts from a risk-on tape the way high-beta story stocks do. There is no cult, no mania, no de-rating panic - just a low-emotion logistics name. Newsflow is quietly constructive: the Dexterity robotic trailer-loading rollout at Hagerstown is being framed by media as a cost-edge / margin story, which nudges the automation-productivity narrative in FDX's favor without being a game-changer. Against that, the macro backdrop is a real crosswind - 10y at 4.65% and market PE 26 pressure all equities, and FDX carries genuine cyclical shipping-demand exposure. The June spinoff of FedEx Freight is already digested and not an active sentiment driver now. Analyst tone is not flagged as diverging. Net: small tailwind from tape and automation headlines, small headwind from rates and mature-cyclical perception - roughly a wash.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Any shift in analyst target revisions or sell-side tone around the automation rollout
- Whether the 10y pushes above 4.75% and triggers a broader industrials de-rating
- Signals on peak shipping season demand that could flip the cyclical narrative either way
- Any Amazon logistics announcement that reignites the incumbent-under-threat story
FedEx sells physical movement with legal and time guarantees, a need AI cannot dematerialize; its AI exposure is almost entirely internal-cost and intermediation, not substitution. Cheap intelligence compresses the coordination layer FedEx has historically monetized (planning, brokerage, service, network design) while leaving the asset base intact, so the structural question is whether FedEx converts AI-driven cost reduction into margin or into share-gaining price concessions in a declining-revenue industry. Its data (billions of scans, transit-time histories, address quality) is genuinely useful for prediction, and its density advantage compounds with better optimization; but the monetized unit — the package — is fungible, and AI agents that auto-select carriers erode the relationship premium. Net: modest positive, with the upside concentrated in cost per package rather than revenue.
None surfaced.
Verify before trusting this (8)
- Parcel volume growth vs GDP
- B2B freight tonnage trend
- E-commerce share of shipments
- Operating margin trajectory
- Cost per package vs yield
- Freight segment margin gap
- Hub capacity utilization
- Aircraft fleet age and capex
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.
Prediction unavailable. valuation-synthesis has no result for FDX — the prediction needs its fair-value anchors.