Business Description
Gold Fields Limited operates as a gold producer with reserves and resources in Chile, South Africa, Ghana, West Africa, Australia, and Peru. The company also explores for copper deposits. It holds interests in 9 operating mines with an annual gold-equivalent production of approximately 2.34 million ounces, as well as gold mineral reserves of approximately 48.6 million ounces and mineral resources of approximately 111.8 million ounces. Gold Fields Limited was founded in 1887 and is based in Sandton, South Africa.
Business History
Generated: Jun 3, 2026 8:31pmPrice Overview
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026 8:47pm (23d ago)Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 4.00
Total Equity: $8.43B
Shares: 897,339,333
Total Debt: $3.22B
Cash: $1.78B
EBITDA: $5.29B
Total Debt: $3.22B
Cash: $1.78B
Revenue: $8.78B
Revenue: $8.78B
Revenue: $8.78B
Total Equity: $8.43B
Tax Rate: 31.1%
Equity: $8.43B
Total Debt: $3.22B
Cash: $1.78B
Current Liabilities: $1.70B
Long-Term Debt: $2.94B
Total Debt: $3.22B
Total Equity: $8.43B
Shares: 897,339,333
Shares: 897,339,333
CapEx: -$1.43B
Shares: 897,339,333
Stock Price: $37.93
Net Income: $3.58B
Industry Benchmarks
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · three lenses
The forensic picture is genuinely clean on the mechanical checks: Beneish M of -5.41, Altman Z of 5.34, OCF/NI of 1.88x, and accruals at -9.5% of assets all say the 2025 earnings are cash-backed, not manufactured. Diluted share count has crept from 893.5M to 897.3M over five years (CAGR 0.1%) and buybacks exceed SBC 110% — this is not a dilution story. FCF of $3.12B against a $33.9B market cap is a ~9% FCF yield, which on the surface looks cheap.
But the numbers vs. narrative reconciliation is where it gets uncomfortable. Revenue jumped from $5.20B (2024) to $8.78B (2025) — a 69% YoY surge — while operating margin expanded from 40.2% to 49.4% and net income nearly tripled from $1.25B to $3.58B. That is not operating leverage from a mature miner; that is the gold price doing the work. Production is ~2.34M oz, so realized prices and grade/cost timing explain essentially all of it. Strip gold back to $2,000 and the FCF yield collapses toward 4-5%, and the 'reasonable premium' valuation becomes a full premium.
The insider tape is also weaker than the upstream 'net buying' label suggests — a single $18.9K purchase by McGill is symbolic, not a signal. Everything else on the tape is zero-value award activity (code A-equivalent), not directional. Net debt of $1.44B is manageable against $3.12B FCF but it's a constraint, not a moat. South Africa/Ghana jurisdictional risk and water/tailings ESG exposure are real and unpriced in the mechanical modules.
Deep Analysis
Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026 8:53pm (23d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.2B | $4.3B | $4.5B | $5.2B | $8.8B |
| Cost of Revenue | $2.5B | $2.7B | $2.9B | $3.0B | $4.0B |
| Gross Profit | $1.7B | $1.6B | $1.6B | $2.2B | $4.8B |
| Operating Expenses | $341.2M | $371.4M | $411.7M | $117.0M | $423.5M |
| Operating Income | $1.5B | $1.4B | $1.4B | $2.1B | $4.3B |
| Net Income | $789.3M | $711.0M | $703.3M | $1.2B | $3.6B |
| EBITDA | $2.1B | $2.0B | $2.1B | $2.7B | $5.3B |
| EPS | $0.92 | $0.78 | $0.77 | $1.39 | $4.00 |
| EPS (Diluted) | — | — | — | — | — |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026 8:31pm (23d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $524.7M | $769.4M | $648.7M | $860.2M | $1.8B |
| Total Current Assets | $1.4B | $1.8B | $1.9B | $1.9B | $3.0B |
| Total Assets | $7.3B | $7.3B | $8.2B | $10.1B | $15.2B |
| Current Liabilities | $822.4M | $785.4M | $1.5B | $1.7B | $1.7B |
| Long-Term Debt | $1.1B | $1.1B | $653.4M | $1.8B | $2.9B |
| Total Liabilities | $3.2B | $3.0B | $3.6B | $4.8B | $6.6B |
| Total Equity | $4.1B | $4.3B | $4.5B | $5.2B | $8.4B |
| Retained Earnings | $2.2B | $2.6B | $3.0B | $3.9B | $6.7B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026 8:53pm (23d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $1.6B | $1.7B | $1.6B | $2.0B | $4.5B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$1.1B | -$1.1B | -$1.1B | -$1.2B | -$1.4B |
| Free Cash Flow | $463.8M | $614.3M | $437.6M | $709.2M | $3.1B |
| Acquisitions (net) | $31.5M | $28.3M | -$316.2M | -$1.4B | -$2.1B |
| Debt Repayment | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | -$36.4M |
| Net Change in Cash | -$362.1M | $244.7M | -$120.7M | $211.5M | $919.1M |
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026 8:29pm (23d ago)| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue |
$13.5B $12.2B – $15.5B
|
$12.7B $12.6B – $12.7B
|
$11.8B $10.7B – $13.6B
|
$15.6B $14.1B – $18.0B
|
| EBITDA |
$6.9B $6.2B – $7.9B
|
$6.4B $6.4B – $6.5B
|
$6.0B $5.4B – $6.9B
|
$8.0B $7.2B – $9.2B
|
| Net Income |
$5.1B $4.6B – $6.1B
|
$4.3B $4.2B – $4.7B
|
$3.5B $3.1B – $4.2B
|
$3.1B $2.7B – $3.7B
|
| EPS | — | — | — | — |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026 8:53pm (23d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +2.2% | +5.0% | +15.6% | +68.8% |
| Gross Profit Growth | -8.2% | +4.4% | +35.0% | +115.3% |
| Operating Income Growth | -9.5% | +1.4% | +47.2% | +107.1% |
| Net Income Growth | -9.9% | -1.1% | +77.0% | +187.4% |
| EBITDA Growth | -6.3% | +3.7% | +28.4% | +99.1% |
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026 8:52pm (23d ago)All SEC Form 4 codes
- P Purchase
- Open-market or private purchase of shares.
- S Sale
- Open-market or private sale of shares.
- A Award / grant
- Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
- D Return to issuer
- Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
- F In-kind (tax)
- Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
- I Discretionary
- Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
- M Option exercise
- Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
- C Conversion
- Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
- E Short expiration
- Expiration of a short derivative position.
- H Long expiration
- Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
- O OTM exercise
- Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
- X ITM exercise
- Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
- G Gift
- Bona fide gift of securities.
- L Small acquisition
- Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
- W Inheritance
- Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
- Z Voting trust
- Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
- J Other
- Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
- K Equity swap
- Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
- U Tender / buyout
- Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.
Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | MacKenzie John Fraser | P-Purchase | 500.00 | $33.31 | $16,655 |
| 2026-06-02 | McGill Jacqueline Elizabeth | P-Purchase | 500.00 | $37.70 | $18,850 |
| 2026-03-18 | McCrae Shannon Leigh | 0.00 | $0.00 | $0 | |
| 2026-03-18 | Andani Alhassan | 0.00 | $0.00 | $0 | |
| 2026-03-18 | Smit Carel Albert Tecumseh | 0.00 | $0.00 | $0 | |
| 2026-03-18 | Suleman Yunus Goolam Hoosen | 0.00 | $0.00 | $0 | |
| 2028-03-01 | Steyn Mariette | 4,451.00 | $0.00 | $0 | |
| 2026-03-18 | Maluk Maria Cristina Bitar | 0.00 | $0.00 | $0 | |
| 2026-03-18 | Magagula Jongisa | 0.00 | $0.00 | $0 | |
| 2028-03-01 | Magagula Jongisa | 2,893.00 | $0.00 | $0 | |
| 2026-03-18 | Goodlace Terence Philip | 0.00 | $0.00 | $0 | |
| 2026-03-18 | Fraser Michael John | 0.00 | $0.00 | $0 | |
| 2028-03-01 | Fraser Michael John | 13,312.00 | $0.00 | $0 | |
| 2026-03-18 | Bassa Zarina Bibi Mahomed | 0.00 | $0.00 | $0 | |
| 2026-03-18 | McGill Jacqueline Elizabeth | 0.00 | $0.00 | $0 | |
| 2028-03-01 | Dall Alexander Thomas | 3,317.00 | $0.00 | $0 | |
| 2026-03-18 | Sander Jason | 0.00 | $0.00 | $0 | |
| 2028-03-01 | Swanepoel Francois | 4,493.00 | $0.00 | $0 | |
| 2026-03-18 | MacKenzie John Fraser | 0.00 | $0.00 | $0 | |
| 2026-03-18 | Sibiya Philisiwe Gugulethu | 0.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026 8:29pm (23d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | $1.37 | 2026-03-02 | 2026-03-13 | 2026-03-26 |
| 2025-09-12 | $0.40 | 2025-08-25 | 2025-09-12 | 2025-09-25 |
| 2025-03-14 | $0.39 | 2025-03-03 | 2025-03-14 | 2025-03-27 |
| 2024-09-13 | $0.17 | 2024-08-26 | 2024-09-13 | 2024-09-26 |
| 2024-03-14 | $0.22 | 2024-02-27 | 2024-03-15 | 2024-03-28 |
| 2023-09-07 | $0.17 | 2023-08-21 | 2023-09-08 | 2023-09-21 |
| 2023-03-16 | $0.24 | 2023-02-28 | 2023-03-17 | 2023-03-30 |
| 2022-09-15 | $0.17 | 2022-08-29 | 2022-09-16 | 2022-09-29 |
| 2022-03-10 | $0.14 | 2022-02-17 | 2022-03-11 | 2022-03-24 |
| 2021-09-09 | $0.12 | 2021-08-19 | 2021-09-10 | 2021-09-23 |
| 2021-03-11 | $0.22 | 2021-02-18 | 2021-03-12 | 2021-03-25 |
| 2020-09-10 | $0.07 | 2020-08-21 | 2020-09-11 | 2020-09-24 |
| 2020-03-12 | $0.07 | 2020-02-19 | 2020-03-13 | 2020-03-26 |
| 2019-09-05 | $0.04 | 2019-09-06 | 2019-09-19 | |
| 2019-03-14 | $0.01 | 2019-03-05 | 2019-03-15 | 2019-03-28 |
| 2018-09-06 | $0.01 | 2018-08-23 | 2018-09-07 | 2018-09-20 |
| 2018-03-08 | $0.04 | 2018-02-20 | 2018-03-09 | 2018-03-22 |
| 2017-09-07 | $0.03 | 2017-08-17 | 2017-09-08 | 2017-09-21 |
| 2017-03-08 | $0.05 | 2017-02-17 | 2017-03-10 | 2017-03-23 |
| 2016-09-07 | $0.03 | 2016-08-23 | 2016-09-09 | 2016-09-22 |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
The raw numbers tell a story the synthesis models are underweighting: GFI just printed a $5.29B revenue quarter against a $3.49B Q2 — that single quarter is 60% of 2024's full-year revenue. Net margin went from 11.8% (Q4 2023) to 48.2% (Q4 2025), and FCF compounded at 167%. But Q4 2025 revenue of $5.29B on a 48% margin generated ~$2.55B of NI — annualize that and you get $10B+ NI run-rate against a $34B market cap, implying a forward P/E of ~3.4x if (huge if) Q4 is sustainable. It is not. Gold averaged ~$2,650/oz in Q4 2025 and spiked toward $2,900 — the Q4 print is a gold-price spike plus Salares Norte ramp converging, not a new baseline. The H1-to-H2 2025 revenue jump from $3.49B to $5.29B in a single quarter is almost mathematically impossible from production alone; this is price realization, period.
Where I disagree with the prior models: the synthesis calls this a "Reasonable Premium" at 9.2x TTM P/E, but TTM earnings are inflated by the Q4 anomaly. Strip Q4 back to a normalized $3.5B quarterly run-rate at 30% margins (closer to Q2 2025) and you get ~$4.2B normalized NI, or ~8x normalized — still cheap, but not the 9.2x that's already in the tile. The pre-flight call ("commodity-leveraged-producer") is correct and the narrative layer ("anchored, thin narrative, macro-driven") is the most honest read here. The Market Forces "Neutral" verdict is too soft — it assumes mean-reversion symmetry. Gold producers don't mean-revert symmetrically; operating leverage cuts both ways, and at $1,800 gold this same company prints sub-20% margins like it did in 2022-2023 ($188M NI quarters). The "Sector Leader" tag is fine but irrelevant to the trade — every major gold producer is printing record quarters right now.
The contrarian case the models are missing: this stock is down 38% from highs *despite* the best operating quarter in company history. That's the market telling you it doesn't believe Q4 sticks. Either (a) gold rolls over as real rates normalize and Fed cuts get priced out, or (b) cost inflation in South Africa/Ghana/Peru compresses the margin even if gold holds. South Deep, Tarkwa, and Cerro Corona are not low-cost assets; the company's AISC has been creeping up for years. Also worth flagging: the balance sheet tile shows "—" for total debt and equity — that's a real data gap on a company carrying ~$1B+ of net debt historically, and you can't responsibly underwrite a commodity producer without the leverage picture. The insider data is garbage (a single 500-share purchase and a bunch of zero-share entries with future dates in 2028 — clearly malformed); the "Net Insider Buying" signal should be discarded entirely.
My verdict: I dissent mildly from "Reasonable Premium" and lean toward modestly undervalued, but only if you underwrite gold at $2,400+ sustained. At 9.2x TTM and ~8x normalized, with $3.12B FCF and a 1.8% dividend, GFI is priced for gold to fall meaningfully — that's the asymmetry. If you believe central bank buying, fiscal deficits, and de-dollarization keep gold bid above $2,300, fair value is $48-52 (10-11x normalized $4.2B NI on 894M shares ≈ $4.70 EPS × 10-11). If gold mean-reverts to $1,900, margins collapse to 2023 levels and fair value is $28-30. The stock at $37.93 is roughly splitting the difference, which is why the synthesis says "reasonable" — but reasonable for a 50/50 macro bet isn't a reason to own it unless you have a gold view. I have a mild gold view (structurally bid), so I'd take a starter position, size it small (1-2%), and treat it as a macro hedge rather than a compounder. Do not extrapolate Q4 2025. Do not pay up above $42.
GPT Critique
Gold Fields Limited's recent financial performance presents a compelling picture of a company experiencing substantial growth, but one heavily influenced by external factors, notably gold prices. In 2025, the company reported a striking increase in revenue to $8.78 billion, a 69% jump from the previous year, with a net income of $3.58 billion, indicating a robust net margin of 40.8%. This growth trajectory is further highlighted by the quarterly revenue surge to $5.29 billion in Q4 2025, with an impressive net income margin of 48.2%. However, this exceptional performance coincided with a period where gold prices spiked to around $2,650/oz, suggesting that the results might not be sustainable if gold prices normalize. The company's free cash flow of $3.12 billion and a PE ratio of 9.24x also underscore its current profitability and market valuation, albeit under the influence of favorable commodity pricing.
Opus contends that Gold Fields appears modestly undervalued, treating it as a call option on gold prices sustaining above $2,300/oz. I concur with Opus's assessment that Q4 2025's performance should not be seen as a baseline. The extraordinary revenue and margin expansion in this quarter were driven by unprecedented gold prices and the strategic ramp-up of Salares Norte, not by an underlying shift in operational efficiency. Opus rightly points out that if Q4 were to be normalized to reflect more typical gold prices and operational circumstances, the valuation multiples would be less compelling. I agree with this view, as the historical performance in 2022 and 2023, where margins were sub-20%, reflects the company's vulnerability to gold price fluctuations.
Where I diverge from Opus is on the degree of undervaluation. While Opus suggests a fair value of $45-50 if gold holds at $2,300+, I am more conservative in my valuation. Given the company's dependency on high gold prices and geopolitical risks in its operating regions, I would peg the fair value closer to $42-45. This range accounts for the potential downside if gold prices retreat or cost inflation in South Africa and other regions compresses margins further. Additionally, I agree with Opus's critique of the insider transaction data and the importance of a clearer debt picture for a comprehensive risk assessment.
A careful skeptic might argue that both Opus and I are overly focused on recent strong performance, potentially overlooking longer-term structural challenges such as increasing production costs or geopolitical risks. They might also question the reliance on continued high gold prices and whether the macroeconomic factors supporting these prices will persist.