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AGING Analysis Report
Aug 2, 2026
21 days ago · 100% complete
NOT DEPENDABLE This report predates a filing — its financial basis has been replaced.
Report generated: Aug 2, 2026 · Filing on record since: Aug 19, 2026 · 17 days after
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score +7 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 48 · Value -27 · Sentiment 14 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $1,107.40 vs $1,018.38 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

GS NYSE
Financial Services · Capital Markets
New York, NY 10282, United States goldmansachs.com Updated Aug 2, 12:14am
Price
$1,018.38
Market Cap
$300.4B
Employees
46,200
Beta
1.29
Avg Volume
2,150,124
Last Dividend
$17.00
CEO
Mr. David M. Solomon

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. is a leading global investment banking, securities, and asset and wealth management firm headquartered in New York, New York. It provides a comprehensive range of financial services to corporations, financial institutions, governments, and individuals across the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. The firm operates through three primary segments: Global Banking & Markets, Asset & Wealth Management, and Platform Solutions. In Global Banking & Markets, it offers investment banking advisory for mergers and acquisitions, divestitures, restructurings, and corporate defense; securities underwriting; prime brokerage; and market-making in various financial products including fixed income, currencies, commodities, and equities. The Asset & Wealth Management segment delivers investment management, advisory services, and private equity and hedge fund operations for institutional and high-net-worth clients. Platform Solutions supports transaction banking and digital finance offerings. Founded in 1869, The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. maintains a presence in major financial centers worldwide, serving as a key intermediary in global capital markets and facilitating complex financing solutions.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 2, 2026 12:10am
Price Overview
Price at report time
$1,018.38
as of Aug 2, 12:18am (21d ago)
Change · Aug 2
-6.48 (-0.63%)
Day Range
$1,008.60 – $1,042.98
52-Week Range
$694.05 – $1,153.99
50-Day MA
$1,049.39
200-Day MA
$916.48
Volume
1,552,600.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 21d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 295,007,421.00
Float 298,431,444.00
Free Float 101.2%
High free float — 101.2% of shares trade freely, ~-1.2% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 12:21am (21d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 11:41am (24d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 2, 2026 12:09am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
19.84
Stock Price: $1,018
EPS (Diluted): 51.32
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
2.73
Stock Price: $1,018
Total Equity: $124.97B
Shares: 334,684,334
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
Market Cap: $300.43B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $164.26B
EBITDA: N/A
EBITDA not available
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$154.2B
Market Cap: $300.43B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $164.26B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
Gross Profit: N/A
Revenue: $58.28B
Missing from API: Gross Profit
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
Operating Income: N/A
Revenue: $58.28B
Missing from API: Operating Income
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
29.5%
Net Income: $17.18B
Revenue: $58.28B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
13.7%
Net Income: $17.18B
Total Equity: $124.97B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
Operating Income: N/A
Tax Rate: 21.4%
Equity: $124.97B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $164.26B
Zero debt — invested capital = equity minus cash (very efficient)
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
Current Assets: N/A
Current Liabilities: N/A
Missing from API: Current Assets, Current Liabilities
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.00
Short-Term Debt: $0.00
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $0.00
Total Equity: $124.97B
Zero debt — this company carries no debt obligations. Strongest possible score.
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$174.14
Revenue: $58.28B
Shares: 334,684,334
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$373.40
Total Equity: $124.97B
Shares: 334,684,334
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$-141.08
Operating CF: -$45.15B
CapEx: -$2.06B
Shares: 334,684,334
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
1.7%
Last Dividend: $17.00
Stock Price: $1,018
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
30.7%
Dividends Paid: -$5.28B
Net Income: $17.18B
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 2, 2026 12:08am
Compares GS against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 11:41am (24d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $59.3B $47.4B $46.3B $53.5B $58.3B
Cost of Revenue
Gross Profit
Operating Expenses $18.3B $16.0B $16.1B $17.4B $19.6B
Operating Income
Net Income $21.6B $11.3B $8.5B $14.3B $17.2B
EBITDA
EPS $60.25 $30.42 $23.05 $41.07 $51.95
EPS (Diluted) $59.45 $30.06 $22.87 $40.54 $51.32
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 9:10am (23d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $261.0B $241.8B $241.6B $182.1B $164.3B
Total Current Assets
Total Assets $1.5T $1.4T $1.6T $1.7T $1.8T
Current Liabilities
Long-Term Debt
Total Liabilities $1.4T $1.3T $1.5T $1.6T $1.7T
Total Equity $109.9B $117.2B $116.9B $122.0B $125.0B
Retained Earnings $131.8B $139.4B $143.7B $153.4B $165.3B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 11:41am (24d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $921.0M $8.7B -$12.6B -$13.2B -$45.2B
Capital Expenditure -$4.7B -$3.7B -$2.3B -$2.1B -$2.1B
Free Cash Flow -$3.7B $5.0B -$14.9B -$15.3B -$47.2B
Acquisitions (net) $0 -$2.1B $487.0M
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid)
Dividends Paid -$2.7B -$3.7B -$4.2B -$4.5B -$5.3B
Stock Buybacks -$5.2B -$3.5B -$5.8B -$8.0B -$12.4B
Net Change in Cash $105.2B -$19.2B -$248.0M -$59.5B -$17.8B
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 11:41am (24d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth -20.2% -2.3% +15.7% +8.9%
Gross Profit Growth
Operating Income Growth
Net Income Growth -48.0% -24.4% +67.6% +20.3%
EBITDA Growth
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 9:11am (23d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-06-01 $4.50
2026-03-02 $4.50
2025-12-02 $4.00
2025-08-29 $4.00
2025-05-30 $3.00
2025-02-28 $3.00
2024-12-02 $3.00
2024-08-30 $3.00
2024-05-30 $2.75
2024-02-28 $2.75
2023-11-29 $2.75
2023-08-30 $2.75
2023-05-31 $2.50
2023-03-01 $2.50
2022-11-30 $2.50
2022-08-31 $2.50
2022-05-31 $2.00
2022-03-01 $2.00
2021-12-01 $2.00
2021-08-31 $2.00
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable not yet run 14 computed · 6 not applicable · 4 not yet run
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for GS — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-08-02 00:20:44
Verdict I dissent from fair_value toward mildly overvalued. Fair value on normalized earnings is closer to $850-900, not $970. This isn't a short — GS is too high-quality and the franchise too durable — but new money at $1,018 is buying peak earnings at a peak-ish multiple with cash flow quality issues papered over by accounting convention. The right move is to wait for either (a) a capital markets air pocket that resets earnings expectations 15-20% lower, at which point $850 becomes a gift, or (b) evidence that AWM fee growth is genuinely re-rating the mix (needs 2-3 more quarters of segment disclosure). Existing holders should trim, not exit. The synthesis models are directionally correct but too generous — when Market Forces says "unjustifiable" and the composite says "fair," trust Market Forces here.

Looking at the raw numbers first: quarterly net income has run $3.04B → $2.99B → $4.11B → $4.74B → $3.72B → $4.10B → $4.62B → $5.63B over the last eight quarters — that's a genuine acceleration, with the latest print being the highest by ~22% over the year-ago quarter. Annual NI went $8.52B (2023) → $14.28B (2024) → $17.18B (2025), a doubling in two years. On $58.3B revenue and 29.5% net margins, GS is earning at rates it hasn't seen since 2021 ($21.6B NI on $59.3B — the actual cycle peak). ROE of 13.7% is healthy but not extraordinary; the 2021 comparable was closer to 23%. At $1,018 and 19.8x trailing, you're paying peak-ish multiple on peak-ish earnings — the classic setup the bear thesis flags.

The synthesis fair value of $953-974 (a 4-5% discount) is roughly right in direction but understates the asymmetry. Here's my disagreement with the "fair_value" verdict: mean-reversion in capital markets earnings is not a 5% event, it's a 20-30% event when it hits. 2023 NI was $8.5B — half of 2025. If normalized earnings sit at ~$13B (a reasonable mid-cycle blend of 2022-2025), then a 15x multiple on normalized gives you ~$490/share of equity value earnings power, plus the AWM re-rating premium. Even generously assuming $15B normalized NI and 17x, you get ~$810 — meaningfully below spot. The Thesis Evaluation's -7 score feels too balanced; the bear mass deserves more weight because the bull case ("AWM re-rate," "structural trading tailwinds") is exactly the kind of narrative that peak-cycle investors always tell themselves. I'd score this closer to -20.

Where the models are internally inconsistent: Market Forces flags "severe earnings quality issues" and "cyclical peak conditions that make current valuations unjustifiable," yet the composite lands at fair_value. Those aren't compatible — if earnings quality is poor and we're at cycle peak, fair value should be materially below spot, not 4% below. The -$45B operating cash flow and -$47B FCF are red flags the synthesis waves past too casually; yes, banks' cash flow statements are notoriously misleading (trading inventory swings dominate), but the magnitude here deserves more than a shrug. The "Net Insider Buying" tag is misleading too — the transaction list shows mostly small awards and sales, not conviction buying. And revenue_cagr of 12.3% over five years is flattered by starting from 2021 depression comparables in some segments; the underlying franchise doesn't grow at 12%.

The contrarian bull case worth stating: GS has genuinely transformed capital allocation since the failed consumer banking experiment, AWM fee-based revenue is stickier than trading, and if we're entering a multi-year M&A/IPO recovery cycle (rates stabilizing, private equity backlog enormous), 2025 might not be peak — it might be year two of a five-year up-cycle. In that world, $1,018 is a bargain and you're buying the best franchise in the business. I acknowledge this, but note it requires believing we're mid-cycle, not late-cycle, in an environment where credit spreads are tight, equity vol is low, and every capital markets input suggests we're closer to peak than trough. The burden of proof is on the bull.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-02 00:21:00
Verdict Slightly overvalued at $1,018 — fair value looks closer to $900-$975 unless Goldman can sustain 15%+ ROE and $20B+ annual earnings.

Goldman at $1,018 is not egregiously mispriced, but I lean modestly overvalued because the market is capitalizing a rebound year as though it were durable core earning power. The raw income line is undeniably strong: revenue rose from $46.25B in 2023 to $53.51B in 2024 and $58.28B in 2025, while net income recovered from $8.52B to $14.28B to $17.18B. Quarterly profit momentum also stayed healthy, with 2025 net income stepping from $4.74B in Q1 to $3.72B, $4.10B, and $4.62B, then accelerating again to $5.63B in 2026 Q1. That is a real earnings recovery, not an accounting mirage. But the valuation already assumes a lot of that strength persists: nearly 20x earnings and 2.73x book for a capital-markets-heavy franchise producing 13.7% ROE is not cheap. For a bank-like institution, price-to-book matters, and paying almost 2.7x book for mid-teens ROE leaves little room for a softer underwriting, M&A, or trading backdrop.

The biggest disconnect in the dataset is the quality of “cash generation.” Net income of $17.18B sits beside operating cash flow of negative $45.15B and free cash flow of negative $47.22B. For banks and brokers, traditional FCF is a poor valuation tool because working capital and balance-sheet movements swamp the economic signal, so I do not treat that as a simple red flag the way I would for an industrial. Still, it is a reminder not to overread earnings momentum as owner cash. What matters more is whether earnings are translating into book value growth and acceptable returns on equity. On that score, equity at $124.97B against a $300.43B market cap says the market is assigning a very full multiple to a business whose 2025 net income implies roughly a 13%-14% earnings yield on book, but only about a 5.7% earnings yield on the stock price. That spread is the whole debate: Goldman is a good business, but the stock now requires sustained premium returns, not just a cyclical rebound.

What stands out positively is that this is not 2023 anymore. The earnings path is cleaner, margins are strong at 29.5%, and 2025 revenue of $58.28B is nearly back to the 2021 peak of $59.34B, though net income at $17.18B still trails the 2021 high of $21.64B. That actually tells a useful story: the franchise has regained top-line power without fully regaining peak-cycle profitability, which suggests some combination of mix change, higher expense base, or less favorable market conditions than the best year. If you pay $1,018 today, you are implicitly betting that Goldman can either push ROE above the current 13.7% or convince the market that 13%-14% ROE deserves a permanent premium multiple. I’m skeptical on both. A mature, elite franchise can deserve above-book valuation, but 2.7x book usually wants either structurally higher ROE or visible secular growth, and this dataset shows recovery more than reinvention.

The best argument against my caution is straightforward: maybe this is exactly what a premium global franchise should cost. Revenue has compounded well off the 2023 trough, earnings growth has been explosive from depressed levels, the latest quarter’s $5.63B in net income annualizes above 2025’s run rate, and the balance sheet shows $164.26B of cash and equivalents against nearly $125B of equity. If the business is entering a multi-year stretch of normalized deal activity, resilient trading, and better mix in asset and wealth management, then 19.8x earnings could compress quickly on rising profits rather than through a stock decline. The dividend payout ratio of 30.7% also leaves room for ongoing capital return. A smart bull would say the market is not paying for 2021 euphoria; it is paying for a scarcer thing, a fortress franchise with improving consistency after a messy 2023. I weigh that less heavily because the stock is already priced as a premium compounder while the actual reported history still looks cyclical: 2021 net income $21.64B, then down to $11.26B, then $8.52B, then back up. That is not yet stable enough to underwrite a “deserves any price” multiple.

What would change my mind is evidence that current earnings power is both durable and more profitable on equity than 2025 suggests. If the next few quarters keep net income above roughly $5B while full-year ROE pushes toward 16% without relying on one-off market surges, I would concede $1,018 is not stretched and could justify more. Conversely, if annualized earnings slip back toward the $14B-$15B range, or if book value growth lags badly enough that price-to-book remains above 2.5x on a sub-14% ROE profile, then fair value is clearly below the current quote. In short, Goldman is excellent; the stock simply asks investors to pay up as if excellence has become steadier than the numbers have yet proven.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-08-02 00:21:45
Verdict Modestly overvalued at $1,018; fair value nearer $920–980 given 19.8x late-cycle earnings and 2.7x book for 13.7% ROE

The raw numbers describe a classic capital-markets recovery that has already been recognized by the tape. Net income climbed from the $8.52B trough in 2023 to $14.28B in 2024 and $17.18B in 2025, a near-doubling in two years, while revenue advanced from $46.25B to $58.28B. The most recent print—$5.63B of net income in the March 2026 quarter—annualizes above the 2021 boom-year peak of $21.64B. Net margin compressed into the high twenties (29.5% for full-year 2025), ROE sits at 13.7%, and the stock trades at 19.8x trailing earnings and 2.73x book. That combination is the story: the market is capitalizing late-cycle, high-teens earnings power as if it were mid-cycle normal. For a firm whose earnings have historically swung 50% peak-to-trough, a near-20x multiple and a 2.7x price-to-book that implies a mid-teens sustainable ROE look optimistic once the comparison set is the firm’s own cycle rather than the last four strong quarters.

Cash-flow quality reinforces the caution. Operating cash flow of –$45.15B and free cash flow of –$47.22B in 2025 are not merely “bank accounting noise”; they flag that reported earnings are running well ahead of cash generation even after allowing for trading-inventory and deposit volatility. The balance-sheet snapshot (equity $125B, cash $164B) looks fortress-like, yet the zero debt-to-equity figure is an artifact; leverage remains the core of the model. Insider activity is noise—token awards and sales of a few dozen to a couple of thousand shares—so it supplies no confirmatory signal either way. Momentum metrics (revenue CAGR 12.3%, earnings CAGR 42%, recent earnings +20% YoY) are real, but they measure the climb out of a trough, not a new structural plateau.

The strongest counter-argument is simply the trajectory and the franchise. If the March quarter’s $5.63B run-rate is sustained rather than a seasonal or deal-driven spike, 2026 net income could clear $20B and the trailing multiple would compress into the mid-teens without any price decline. Asset & Wealth Management is the cleanest re-rating lever: a durable mix shift toward stickier, higher-ROE fee streams would justify a higher through-cycle multiple and make today’s 2.7x book look less aggressive. Trading has also shown structural resilience in volatile regimes, and the firm’s oligopoly position in advisory and prime brokerage is not easily replicated. A bull can therefore claim that 2025’s $17.18B is the new base, not the peak, and that residual-income math understates scarcity value.

I weigh those points but still land on the other side. Capital-markets fee pools are mean-reverting; investment-banking wallets and equity underwriting volumes do not compound at 12–20% for long. Paying 19.8x and 2.7x book for 13.7% ROE already embeds several years of continued strength. The valuation synthesis’s $953–$974 fair-value range versus $1,018 spot is directionally correct; my own residual-income anchor (ROE 13.7%, cost of equity ~10%, modest growth) points closer to 1.8–2.1x book, or roughly $900–$980. The premium currently on offer is valuation noise, not a transformed earnings power story.

What would flip the verdict is straightforward: three consecutive quarters of net income at or above $5B together with reported ROE sustainably above 15%, or clear segment disclosure showing Asset & Wealth Management contributing a majority of earnings at higher incremental margins. Conversely, a return to sub-$3.5B quarterly net income or a drop in ROE back toward 10% would confirm the cycle-peak thesis and open material downside.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 2.0; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.0 vs panel · self: 4.0
GPT gpt-5.4 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.0 vs panel · self: 4.0
Grok grok-4.5 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.0 vs panel · self: 4.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-02 00:35:19
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality - wait for a dip 7/10
Great franchise at a full price on cycle-good earnings - I want Goldman lower before I show up in size.
The cruxWhether the current $17B earnings run-rate is a new plateau or a cyclical peak that gets rebased 15-20% lower in the next capital-markets air pocket.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from GS's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwayLong Runway
DilutionShare Count Shrinking
Earnings QualityWeak — Some Red Flags
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+48
Strong
edge √Σ 116 · risk √Σ 64 · conf 7/10

Revenue has recovered from the 2023 trough of $46.3B back to $58.3B in 2025, with net income rebuilding from $8.5B to $17.2B — a two-year doubling that reflects both a better capital markets tape and cost discipline. The franchise is doing what it should at this point in the cycle: earning double-digit returns and buying stock back. Diluted shares fell from 374.6M (2022) to 334.7M (2025), a ~2.1% annual shrink, and buybacks run 2.4x SBC — per-share value is being concentrated, which is exactly the behavior you want from a mature earner. Insider tape is mixed but unremarkable for a large bank (routine awards, some officer selling, no cluster of open-market P buys of size). The forensic modules flag things that need context. Altman Z of 0.27 and 'distress' labeling is a false positive: Z-score is calibrated for industrial balance sheets, not a bank whose business model IS a large, leveraged balance sheet funded by deposits, repo, and trading liabilities. Similarly, FCF of -$47.2B and OCF/NI of -0.84x reflect trading inventory, financing receivables, and broker-dealer working capital swings, not cash-burning operations - GAAP cash flow is not a meaningful quality metric for a dealer bank. The $164B liquid cash figure is likewise operating liquidity, not free capital. What is real: earnings integrity looks acceptable (accruals 1.6% of assets is modest), the share count is genuinely falling, and the earnings trajectory is favorable. What is not verifiable here: capital ratios (CET1), VaR trends, litigation reserves, and consumer/Platform Solutions wind-down costs — all of which are the actual quality signals for this business and none of which appear in the derived data.

Strengths 4
m70
Genuine per-share discipline
Diluted shares down from 374.6M to 334.7M in three years (-2.1% CAGR) with buyback/SBC at 238% - a mature earner returning capital, not diluting.
m65
Earnings rebuilding sharply
Net income $8.5B (2023) to $14.3B (2024) to $17.2B (2025); revenue $46.3B to $58.3B over the same span. Cyclical recovery is real and broad.
m55
Franchise durability
Top-tier global M&A advisory, FICC and equities trading, and asset/wealth management - the kind of scale-and-relationship moat that is very hard to displace.
m35
Accruals modest
Accruals at 1.6% of assets is not a red flag for earnings quality; no evidence of aggressive accrual buildup.
Concerns 3
m55
Inherent balance-sheet leverage and cyclicality
As a dealer bank, GS runs a large leveraged balance sheet with trading, credit, and counterparty exposure; earnings are cyclical (2021 $21.6B down to 2023 $8.5B), which caps how 'fortress' this can be graded regardless of current strength.
m25
Insider selling outweighs buying in dollars
$35.9M sold vs $6.7M bought over trailing 12 months - not alarming for a large bank where comp is stock-heavy, but not a conviction signal either.
m20
Consumer strategy overhang
Platform Solutions/Marcus retrenchment implies write-downs and strategic drift that the derived data cannot quantify; needs filing-level check.
This is a high-quality capital markets franchise operating at or near the top of its cycle, with genuine per-share discipline and rebuilding profitability. The forensic module flags (Altman Z 'distress', negative FCF, poor cash flow quality) are artifacts of applying industrial-company metrics to a dealer bank and should be discounted, not taken at face value. What I cannot see from the derived data - capital ratios, VaR, litigation, consumer wind-down - is exactly what would move my grade up or down within the Strong band. On what I can see, the business is in a good state: shrinking share count, doubling earnings off the trough, and franchise intact. It is not a fortress in the industrial sense because leverage and cyclicality are baked into the model, but among bulge-bracket banks this is about as good as the quality read gets.
Verify before trusting this (7)
  • CET1 ratio, SLR, and liquidity coverage ratio trend over the last 8 quarters
  • VaR and trading loss days disclosure - is risk-taking rising into the earnings recovery
  • Platform Solutions/GreenSky/Marcus wind-down charges and remaining consumer loan reserves
  • Litigation and regulatory reserve movement (1MDB tail, ongoing matters)
  • Composition of the $47B negative FCF - trading inventory vs financing receivables vs true operating drag
  • Segment mix: Investment Banking vs FICC vs Equities vs Asset and Wealth Management revenue durability
  • Compensation ratio trend - is the recent earnings growth being shared appropriately with shareholders
Valuation / Mispricing
-27
Fairly Valued
edge √Σ 25 · risk √Σ 52 · conf 7/10
price $1,018 vs deserved ~$974, a ~4.5% premium - essentially fair, no margin of safety either way. attractive below $850.00

The e2e synthesis pegs composite fair value at $953.35 and signal-adjusted FV at $974.32 against a market price of $1,018.38 - roughly a 4-7% premium, well inside the noise band for a dealer bank whose earnings swing with capital markets activity. The anchored-PE method corroborates at $953, so no single method is running away. Given the Strong company-quality read (franchise, per-share discipline, recovering ROE), I am comfortable letting deserved value sit at the upper end of that range, but the earnings-quality haircut hint (-1, some red flags) argues against paying up further - trading and IB earnings at cycle-good levels should be capitalized conservatively. Net: the market has already priced in the steady-compounder narrative. To claim cheapness here you would need to assume through-cycle ROE structurally re-rates higher (wealth/AM mix shift sticks) AND multiple expands - two heroic asks stacked. To claim it is rich, you would need a capital markets downturn thesis that is not evident in current guidance. The honest read is a modest premium to deserved value, no margin of safety, no clear short.

Cheap signals 2
m20
Franchise quality supports upper-end deserved value
Strong quality grade justifies anchoring deserved value near $974 rather than $953, trimming the apparent premium to ~4.5%.
m15
Anchored-PE cross-checks composite
Anchored-PE at $953 aligns with composite - no runaway method inflating or deflating the read, so the fair-value estimate is credible.
Rich / priced-in 3
m35
Trades ~4-7% above composite FV
Price $1,018 vs composite FV $953 and signal-adjusted FV $974 - a small but consistent premium across methods, not a bargain.
m30
Cycle-good earnings being capitalized
Earnings-quality flag (-1) suggests current EPS reflects favorable capital-markets conditions; paying a market multiple on peak-ish earnings is the classic dealer-bank trap.
m25
Steady-compounder narrative already in price
The bull case (AM/wealth mix shift, capital discipline) is the consensus view - it is what gets you to ~$974 deserved, not to a discount.
Fairly valued, full stop. At $1,018 against a deserved value around $974, there is no gap worth trading - I am paying roughly fair price for a strong franchise on cycle-good earnings, which is exactly the setup where you get no edge. I would want it closer to $850 (about a 15% discount to deserved and a real margin of safety on possibly-peak earnings) before I would call it interesting. Above $1,150 it starts looking clearly rich.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Through-cycle ROE guidance and asset management fee-earning AUM growth in latest transcript
  • Any one-off gains in trading/principal investments inflating recent EPS
  • Buyback pace and capital return guidance under current CET1 constraints
  • Loan-loss and private-credit exposure marks that could hit book value
General Sentiment
+14
Balanced
tail √Σ 50 · head √Σ 36 · conf 6/10

The macro tape is mildly constructive (regime score +22, VIX 16, S&P just 1.6% off highs) but rates at 4.68% and a 26x market PE cap the upside. For a 1.29-beta capital-markets name, that translates into a modestly supportive backdrop - not a wind at the back, more the absence of a storm. The Bloomberg piece on the biggest Wall Street rotation since 2020 and AI crowding cracks is the most GS-relevant item: rotation out of AI mega-caps historically funnels flows into financials and cyclicals, a subtle tailwind for a franchise trading and prime-brokering that flow. On the narrative side there is almost nothing pushing the stock. Intensity is 'minimal', cult is 'low', and the story is a boring steady-compounder tale with no transformative hook. That means sentiment is neither inflating nor deflating the price - the +4.5% premium is described as valuation noise, not narrative froth. Analyst tone in the newsflow shows GS itself acting as an analyst (cutting HOOD targets) rather than being the subject of upgrades or downgrades, reinforcing the quiet-book read. Net: a low-drama name in a low-drama tape. The rotation dynamic and calm VIX give a slight tailwind edge, but nothing decisive - GS will trade on earnings and rates, not on story.

Tailwinds 3
m35
AI-to-financials rotation
The 'biggest Wall Street rotation since 2020' out of crowded AI names is exactly the flow that lands in large-cap financials like GS - a modest but real sentiment tailwind for the sector wrapper.
m25
Calm tape, high-beta name
VIX 16 and S&P near highs let a 1.29-beta capital-markets stock breathe - activity-linked revenues (trading, ECM, M&A advisory) are sentiment-sensitive and benefit from a non-stressed backdrop.
m25
Momentum with the tape
Strong positive multi-year momentum and improved capital structure keep systematic and trend flows on the buy side, a quiet but persistent bid independent of the story.
Headwinds 2
m30
Rates and stretched market PE
10y at 4.68% and market PE 26.2 are a persistent low-grade press on all financials' multiples; not decisive for GS given its earnings power, but a real ceiling on re-rating.
m20
Thin narrative, no cult bid
Minimal intensity and low cult coefficient mean no story-driven buyers; in a market where narrative names get the marginal dollar, GS is passed over rather than chased.
This is a quiet book. The tape is mildly friendly to a high-beta financial, the rotation narrative is a small positive, and there is no bear story actively de-rating the name - but there is also no story pulling it higher. Rates and a rich market PE cap the upside. Net pressure is roughly balanced with a slight tailwind lean from the rotation dynamic; GS will move on earnings and rate prints, not on sentiment, and that is fine for a compounder.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Whether the AI-to-financials rotation persists beyond a week or reverses
  • Any move in the 10y above 4.9% that would pressure financials multiples
  • Sell-side target revisions on GS itself (not GS acting as analyst on others)
  • VIX behavior - a spike above 20 flips the high-beta calculus fast
  • Signs the wealth-management pivot narrative starts gaining intensity (would add a genuine tailwind)
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
not run

This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.

The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
About flat -3.3% v0.6.0 View full prediction →

When we made this prediction on Aug 2, 2026, GS was $1,018.38. We expect it to be $985.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $850.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 2, 2026.

Price when predicted$1,018.38
Our estimate for Feb 2027$985.00-3.3%
Great value below$850.00
Price history shown (6 Months)

Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.562 · 9b2927c4 · 2026-08-22 16:52:06