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FRESH Analysis Report
Jun 20, 2026
7 days ago · 100% complete

Hesai Group

HSAI NASDAQ Categories PDF
Consumer Cyclical · Auto - Parts
Shanghai, 201702, China IPO 2023 hesaitech.com Updated Jun 26, 6:54pm
Price
$14.80
Market Cap
$1.9B
Employees
1,142
Beta
1.34
Avg Volume
1,807,785
CEO
Yifan Li
Business Description

Hesai Group, along with its various subsidiaries, focuses on the creation, production, and marketing of three-dimensional light detection and ranging (LiDAR) technologies. These sophisticated LiDAR solutions are utilized in a diverse array of applications, including advanced driver-assistance systems for both passenger and commercial automobiles, autonomous transportation services for people and goods, and specialized robotics like delivery robots, street-cleaning robots, and logistics robots operating in confined spaces. Founded in 2014, the company maintains its headquarters in Shanghai, China.

Business History
Generated: Jun 20, 2026 3:02am
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 8:01am (just now)
$14.80
-0.22 (-1.46%)
Day Range
$14.40 – $14.90
52-Week Range
$14.40 – $30.85
50-Day MA
$20.32
200-Day MA
$23.03
Volume
1,532,999.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $31.50
Consensus $31.50
High $31.50
(2 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 130,143,360.00
Float 108,070,164.00
Free Float 83.0%
High free float — 83.0% of shares trade freely, ~17% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 8:01am (just now)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 21, 2026 7:13pm (5d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 20, 2026 3:01am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
33.28
Stock Price: $14.80
EPS (Diluted): 3.08
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
2.43
Stock Price: $14.80
Total Equity: $8.96B
Shares: 146,437,135
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
22.81
Market Cap: $1.93B
Total Debt: $877.72M
Cash: $1.67B
EBITDA: $609.50M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$21.1B
Market Cap: $1.93B
Total Debt: $877.72M
Cash: $1.67B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
41.8%
Gross Profit: $1.27B
Revenue: $3.03B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
4.1%
Operating Income: $123.54M
Revenue: $3.03B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
14.4%
Net Income: $435.88M
Revenue: $3.03B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
6.1%
Net Income: $435.88M
Total Equity: $8.96B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
1.4%
Operating Income: $123.54M
Tax Rate: 6.6%
Equity: $8.96B
Total Debt: $877.72M
Cash: $1.67B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
3.73
Current Assets: $7.07B
Current Liabilities: $1.90B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.10
Short-Term Debt: $598.81M
Long-Term Debt: $278.90M
Total Debt: $877.72M
Total Equity: $8.96B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$20.67
Revenue: $3.03B
Shares: 146,437,135
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$61.22
Total Equity: $8.96B
Shares: 146,437,135
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$-1.28
Operating CF: $113.80M
CapEx: -$300.94M
Shares: 146,437,135
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.0%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $14.80
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $435.88M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 20, 2026 3:01am
Compares HSAI against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 20, 2026 3:06:01 am

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
No positive free cash flow — DCF requires positive FCF
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
No positive free cash flow — reverse DCF requires positive FCF
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for High Growth Profitable companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for High Growth Profitable companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for High Growth Profitable companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for High Growth Profitable companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for High Growth Profitable companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
Not applicable for High Growth Profitable companies
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for High Growth Profitable companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 21, 2026 7:13pm (5d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $720.8M $1.2B $1.9B $2.1B $3.0B
Cost of Revenue $339.0M $730.7M $1.2B $1.2B $1.8B
Gross Profit $381.8M $472.0M $661.4M $884.6M $1.3B
Operating Expenses $647.1M $850.2M $1.2B $1.1B $1.1B
Operating Income -$265.3M -$378.2M -$571.6M -$204.9M $123.5M
Net Income -$244.8M -$300.8M -$476.0M -$102.4M $435.9M
EBITDA -$217.6M -$247.2M -$385.9M -$2.2M $609.5M
EPS $-23.39 $-5.95 $-3.81 $-0.79 $3.08
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 8:01am (just now)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $449.4M $913.3M $1.6B $2.8B $1.7B
Total Current Assets $3.5B $3.1B $4.4B $4.7B $7.1B
Total Assets $4.0B $3.8B $5.7B $6.0B $11.3B
Current Liabilities $892.2M $955.5M $1.3B $1.6B $1.9B
Long-Term Debt $0 $18.5M $285.9M $269.4M $278.9M
Total Liabilities $902.5M $997.7M $1.8B $2.1B $2.3B
Total Equity -$2.5B -$3.1B $3.9B $3.9B $9.0B
Retained Earnings -$2.2B -$2.8B -$3.3B -$3.4B -$3.0B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 21, 2026 7:13pm (5d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow -$228.4M -$696.0M $57.3M $63.5M $113.8M
Capital Expenditure -$281.6M -$240.4M -$414.7M -$271.4M -$300.9M
Free Cash Flow -$510.0M -$936.4M -$357.4M -$207.9M -$187.1M
Acquisitions (net) $0 $0 -$40.0M $0 $4.1M
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Net Change in Cash $192.7M $463.9M $644.8M $1.3B -$1.1B
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 6:54pm (13h ago)
Metric 2027 2028 2029 2030
Revenue $6.1B
$6.0B – $6.2B
$7.8B
$7.2B – $8.7B
$8.5B
$7.8B – $9.5B
$9.9B
$9.1B – $10.9B
EBITDA -$621.7M
-$631.6M – -$611.8M
-$804.0M
-$893.1M – -$741.5M
-$872.4M
-$969.2M – -$804.6M
-$1.0B
-$1.1B – -$932.0M
Net Income $867.0M
$674.8M – $1.1B
$1.4B
$798.0M – $1.9B
$1.5B
$1.4B – $1.7B
$1.8B
$1.6B – $2.0B
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 21, 2026 7:13pm (5d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +66.9% +56.1% +10.7% +45.8%
Gross Profit Growth +23.6% +40.1% +33.7% +43.0%
Operating Income Growth -42.6% -51.1% +64.2% +160.3%
Net Income Growth -22.8% -58.3% +78.5% +525.8%
EBITDA Growth -13.6% -56.2% +99.4% +28,435.7%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-03-25 Xiang Shaoqing A-Award 157,000.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-25 Wang Hui (Jasmine) A-Award 6,565.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-25 Li Yifan A-Award 157,000.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-25 Sun Kai A-Award 157,000.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Sun Kai 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Ren Jia 2,372.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Fan Peng 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Fan Peng 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Fan Peng 8,000.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Fan Peng 11,468.00 $0.90 $10,321
2026-03-18 Li Yifan 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Zhang Yi 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Zhang Yi 5,953.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Wang Hui (Jasmine) 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Xiang Shaoqing 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Xiang Shaoqing 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Yang Cailian 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Yang Cailian 1,000.00 $0.00 $0
2021-07-03 Yang Cailian 181,042.00 $2.10 $380,188
2025-08-31 Yang Cailian 9,443.00 $3.30 $31,162
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for HSAI — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-20 03:06:40
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict Modestly undervalued but lower-quality than headlines suggest — fair value ~$22-24 on normalized earnings, not $30+; wait for Q2 2026 to confirm Q1 margin collapse was seasonal before sizing up.

The quarterly trajectory is the single most important fact here and the synthesis layer is glossing over it. Q1 2026 revenue of $680.6M is down 32% sequentially from Q4 2025's $1.00B, and net margin collapsed from 15.3% to 2.7%. Yes, Q1 is seasonally weak in Chinese auto supply, but the YoY compare is also softening: Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025 is +30% revenue, materially slower than the +46% annual print models are anchoring on. The Q3 2025 net income spike to $256M on $795M revenue (32% margin) looks like a one-time gain — possibly tax/investment-related — because it isn't repeated and the surrounding quarters run 6-15% margins. Strip that out and "normalized" 2025 NI is probably closer to $200M, not $436M, which means trailing P/E is more like 11x than 5.5x. Still cheap, but not the screaming bargain the synthesis layer implies.

The pre-flight and narrative layers correctly identify that this is a LiDAR platform play, but the synthesis verdict ("Disconnected from Fundamentals") is too credulous about the headline numbers. I'd push back: a P/S of 0.7x for a Chinese hardware company with -$187M FCF, $301M capex, customer concentration (Sony/Chinese EV OEMs), VIE structure risk, and active delisting/sanctions overhang is *not* obviously mispriced. The market is applying a China-tech discount that is rational given 2024-2026 precedent (DiDi, multiple ADR wipeouts, Pentagon "Chinese Military Company" list — Hesai was on it, sued, and the situation remains live). The 2.4x P/B and 26x EV/EBITDA tell a less flattering story than the 5.5x P/E: this business consumes capital, gross margin at 41.8% is below the "40%+" bull-case bar (and trending down from 47% in 2023), and operating margin of 4% on $3B revenue is thin for something called a "platform."

The contrarian case writes itself: LiDAR ASPs are falling 20-30% annually as RoboSense, Seyond, and Huawei's in-house solution scale; BYD is internalizing sensor stacks; Tesla remains explicitly anti-LiDAR which caps the Western OEM TAM; and the Q1 2026 margin compression to 2.7% is exactly what commoditization looks like — volume up, price down, mix deteriorating. The insider awards on 2026-03-25 (multiple 157,000-share grants) are compensation, not conviction buys, and the synthesis label of "No Insider Transactions" is misleading — there's nothing open-market here. FCF of -$187M against $1.67B cash gives ~9 years of runway at current burn, which is fine, but the bull thesis requires margin expansion, not cash burn, to justify a re-rating. Market Forces calling this "Neutral" with "severe earnings quality issues" is closer to right than the synthesis "Disconnected" verdict.

I dissent from the synthesis "Disconnected from Fundamentals = undervalued" framing. The right read is: HSAI is cheap on headline multiples *because the market correctly suspects* (a) 2025 earnings were goosed by a non-recurring item, (b) Q1 2026 signals margin normalization toward low-single-digits, (c) geopolitical tail risk is non-trivial, and (d) FCF remains negative. Fair value on normalized $200M NI at a China-discounted 15x is ~$3B market cap, or roughly $23/share — meaning there *is* upside from $16.89, but it's ~35%, not the 2-3x the synthesis layer implies. A starter position is defensible only if you can stomach the binary geopolitical risk and believe Q1 was seasonal rather than structural. I'd want to see the Q2 2026 print confirming sequential recovery before scaling. The narrative layer's "moderate durability" rating is correct; the synthesis layer's enthusiasm is not.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-20 03:06:46
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I agree with Opus that Hesai is modestly undervalued at $16.89, with fair value in the $22-24 range, but I see potential for a greater upside if geopolitical risks are mitigated and LiDAR adoption accelerates.

In reviewing Hesai Group's financials, several key points emerge. Hesai's revenue trajectory is impressive, with a 46% annual growth rate and a recent quarterly revenue of $680.6M for Q1 2026, although this represents a significant sequential decrease from Q4 2025's $1.00B. This pattern highlights potential seasonal volatility, underscored by the net income margin's drop from 15.3% to 2.7%. Historically, Hesai swung from negative net income in early 2024 to a profitable 2025, with $435.9M net income on $3.03B revenue. The company's balance sheet is robust with $1.67B in cash but weak on cash flow generation, reporting negative free cash flow of -$187.1M in 2025, indicating heavy capital expenditure without immediate returns. The P/E ratio of 37.86 and a P/S ratio of 7.20 suggest that while the company is valued above its earnings, it is still priced as a growth stock, albeit with skepticism due to its geopolitical exposure and operational challenges.

Opus's analysis highlights several critical points I agree with. The assertion that Q1 2026's margin collapse might reflect more than seasonality is crucial. The steep drop in both revenue and margin from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026 raises concerns about potential structural issues, beyond seasonal patterns, particularly given the company's reliance on Chinese EV OEMs and Sony, which enhances its customer concentration risk. Furthermore, I concur with Opus’s skepticism regarding the sustainability of the Q3 2025 spike in net income, which indeed seems anomalous given surrounding quarters' performance, suggesting a non-recurring gain may have inflated earnings.

However, I diverge from Opus on the potential undervaluation narrative. Opus mentions that Hesai's market cap of $2.20B and its current price reflect the market's skepticism about its future earnings power, given the geopolitical risks and sector-specific challenges. While I agree that these risks are significant, I question Opus’s dismissal of the "Disconnected from Fundamentals" synthesis. The rapid revenue growth and transition to profitability indicate a company with substantial potential, which might indeed be underappreciated by the market due to excessive discounting for geopolitical and sector risks.

A careful skeptic might argue that both Opus's and my analyses overemphasize short-term earnings volatility without sufficiently considering longer-term strategic shifts and potential technological advancements in the LiDAR sector. They might posit that if Hesai can leverage its partnerships, particularly with Sony, to achieve scale and cost advantages, it could potentially overcome margin pressures and geopolitical headwinds, warranting a re-evaluation of its growth prospects and valuation.

Community AI Feedback
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My Notes personal — only you see this
Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.352 · d1100787 · 2026-06-26 11:39:30