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AGING Analysis Report
Jun 17, 2026
10 days ago · 100% complete · +8 refreshed

Lazard Ltd

LAZ NYSE Categories PDF
Financial Services · Financial - Capital Markets
New York City, HM11, United States IPO 2005 lazard.com Updated Jun 17, 3:00am
Price
$44.90
Market Cap
$4.4B
Employees
3,253
Beta
1.41
Avg Volume
1,528,722
CEO
Peter R. Orszag
Business Description

Established in 1848 and headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda, Lazard Ltd operates as a global financial advisory and asset management institution. The company, through its subsidiaries, extends its services across diverse regions including North America, Europe, Asia, Australia, and Central and South America. Its operations are distinctly divided into two primary segments: Financial Advisory and Asset Management. The Financial Advisory division provides a broad spectrum of expert advice on matters such as mergers and acquisitions, corporate reorganizations, capital structure, shareholder relations, capital raising initiatives, sovereign financial issues, and various other strategic consultations. This segment serves a wide array of clients, including corporations, partnerships, institutions, governmental bodies, sovereign entities, and private individuals, spanning numerous industries like consumer goods, financial services, healthcare, industrial sectors, energy, infrastructure, real estate, technology, telecommunications, and media and entertainment. The Asset Management division delivers comprehensive investment and wealth management solutions. These encompass a range of strategies in equity and fixed income, tailored asset allocation plans, alternative investments, and private equity funds. Its extensive client base includes corporations, public and labor funds, sovereign wealth entities, endowments, foundations, financial intermediaries, and high-net-worth private clients.

Business History
Generated: Jun 17, 2026 3:03am
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 17, 2026 3:00am (10d ago)
$44.90
+0.84 (+1.91%)
Day Range
$44.47 – $45.88
52-Week Range
$38.67 – $58.75
50-Day MA
$46.73
200-Day MA
$49.30
Volume
2,111,836.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $40.00
Consensus $47.00
High $52.00
(16 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 98,437,685.00
Float 97,566,511.00
Free Float 99.1%
High free float — 99.1% of shares trade freely, ~0.9% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 17, 2026 3:07am (10d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 17, 2026 3:07am (10d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 17, 2026 3:01am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
16.10
Stock Price: $44.90
EPS (Diluted): 2.43
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
5.42
Stock Price: $44.90
Total Equity: $873.66M
Shares: 106,338,079
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
11.44
Market Cap: $4.42B
Total Debt: $2.17B
Cash: $1.50B
EBITDA: $449.41M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$5.8B
Market Cap: $4.42B
Total Debt: $2.17B
Cash: $1.50B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
31.8%
Gross Profit: $1.01B
Revenue: $3.19B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
13.0%
Operating Income: $415.32M
Revenue: $3.19B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
7.4%
Net Income: $236.83M
Revenue: $3.19B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
33.2%
Net Income: $236.83M
Total Equity: $873.66M
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
7.5%
Operating Income: $415.32M
Tax Rate: 23.4%
Equity: $873.66M
Total Debt: $2.17B
Cash: $1.50B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
29.35
Current Assets: $2.37B
Current Liabilities: $80.67M
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
2.49
Short-Term Debt: $80.67M
Long-Term Debt: $2.09B
Total Debt: $2.17B
Total Equity: $873.66M
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$29.97
Revenue: $3.19B
Shares: 106,338,079
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$8.22
Total Equity: $873.66M
Shares: 106,338,079
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$4.75
Operating CF: $537.18M
CapEx: -$31.95M
Shares: 106,338,079
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
3.9%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $44.90
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
—
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $236.83M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 17, 2026 3:01am
Compares LAZ against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · three lenses
Three separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-06-17 03:08:25
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality-meh, price-fair — pass, set a bid lower 7/10
Decent cyclical franchise at a fair-but-not-cheap price — quality at -27 says 'okay business,' value at -35 says 'no margin of safety,' so I wait.
The cruxWhether you get a chance to buy this at trough multiples — because paying mid-cycle for a business that just printed a loss two years ago is how cyclicals hurt you.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from LAZ's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionShare Count Shrinking
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The three lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
-27
Mixed
edge √Σ 100 · risk √Σ 127 · conf 6/10

Lazard is a classic advisory/asset-management franchise: high human-capital intensity, no real fixed-asset moat, and earnings that swing hard with deal flow. Revenue went $3.27B → $2.83B → $2.55B → $3.09B → $3.19B, with operating margin collapsing from 22.1% in 2021 to -3.1% in 2023 (net loss of $75.5M) before recovering to ~13% in 2024-25. That trough year is the tell — this business does not compound smoothly, and 2024-25 margins (~12-13%) are still well below the 2021 peak (22%), so 'recovery' is partial.

Earnings integrity looks clean: OCF/NI of 1.34x, accruals at -6.8% of assets, Beneish M at -2.37, and FCF of $505M on $237M net income in 2025 — cash is comfortably exceeding reported profit. Capital return is real: diluted shares went from 113.7M (2021) to 89.0M (2023), though they've crept back to 106.3M in 2025, so the -1.7% CAGR understates recent re-dilution. Buyback/SBC of 90% means net repurchase, but the bounce from 89M to 106M shares in two years deserves scrutiny.

Balance sheet is a constraint, not a fortress: $1.67B cash but net debt of -$503M. For an advisory firm whose 'inventory' walks out the elevator each night, modest net debt plus a money-losing 2023 means there's no big cushion to absorb a deeper cycle. Insider tape shows only awards, option exercises, and dispositions — zero open-market buys against $9.3M of sales — consistent with comp-driven selling but no conviction signal.

Strengths 3
m70
Clean earnings quality
OCF/NI 1.34x, accruals -6.8% of assets, Beneish M -2.37 — reported numbers convert to cash. FCF $505M in 2025 vs net income $237M.
m55
Genuine net buyback
Diluted shares fell from 113.7M (2021) to 89.0M (2023); buyback/SBC 90% indicates repurchases meaningfully exceed stock comp.
m45
Capital-light cash generation
FCF averaged ~$590M/yr across 5 years on a $4.4B market cap business; advisory model needs little capex.
Concerns 7
m75
Severe cyclicality, no margin floor
Operating margin swung 22.1% → 18.3% → -3.1% → 12.5% → 13% in five years. 2023 was an outright loss ($75.5M). This is not a stable compounder; earnings are dictated by M&A cycles.
m55
Margins haven't recovered to prior peak
Gross margin 31.8% in 2025 vs 42% in 2021; op margin 13% vs 22.1%. Two-year 'recovery' still leaves profitability materially below 2021, suggesting structural comp/cost pressure or mix shift.
m50
Recent share count creep
Diluted shares rebounded from 89M (2023) to 106.3M (2025) — a 19% rise in two years. The headline -1.7% CAGR masks that buybacks have not kept up with issuance recently.
m40
Net debt with cyclical earnings
Net cash is -$503M despite $1.67B liquid cash. For a people-business that lost money in 2023, leverage is a real constraint in a downturn.
m35
Altman Z in grey zone
Z = 2.57 — not distress, but not robust either, consistent with a financial firm carrying meaningful liabilities.
m30
Insider tape is one-directional
0 open-market buys, 8 sales totaling $9.3M in 12 months; flagged as unusual vs historical norms. Mostly comp-driven (Orszag, Hogbin post-vest sales) but no offsetting conviction buying.
m35
Moat is human capital, not structural
Advisory/AM model — the 'assets' are bankers and AUM. Reputation is durable but no switching-cost or network moat shows up in margin stability.
This is a decent but not great business. Accounting looks honest, cash conversion is real, and management does return capital. But strip away the recent recovery and you see a deeply cyclical advisory house that lost money two years ago, has margins still well below prior peak, and quietly re-diluted by 19% in two years after the 2023 trough. The moat is reputation and bankers — durable in good times, fragile when cycles turn or rainmakers leave. I'd call it a solid franchise inside a structurally lumpy business, not a quality compounder. Mixed is the honest grade.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • What drove the 2023 collapse — was it M&A volume, a comp ratio reset, or one-time restructuring charges?
  • Why did diluted shares rise from 89M to 106M in 2024-25 despite the buyback program — equity raise, awards vesting, or accounting recount?
  • Asset management AUM trend and net flows — is the more stable revenue leg shrinking?
  • Composition of the $1.67B cash vs the debt stack and maturities; is any of the cash restricted/regulatory?
  • Comp/revenue ratio trend — for advisory firms this is the single biggest margin driver.
  • Senior banker retention and recent departures or hires — the franchise is the people.
Valuation / Mispricing
-35
Fairly Valued
edge √Σ 32 · risk √Σ 67 · conf 6/10
Price $44.90 vs deserved ~$43-46 — gap is ~0-5%, inside the noise; this is a fair price, not a mispricing. attractive below $37.00

The e2e synthesis lands on 'Reasonable Premium,' which against a $44.90 price implies the market is paying up modestly for a recovering advisory cycle. With a market cap of ~$4.4B on a business whose normalized earnings power is muddied by a money-losing 2023 and margins still below prior peak, the 'deserved' price is best anchored to mid-cycle EPS rather than trailing or peak numbers. On mid-cycle assumptions (advisory normalization, AUM fees stable-to-declining), a fair multiple of 12-14x on normalized EPS in the ~$3.25-3.75 range puts deserved value in the low-to-mid $40s — essentially right where it trades.

Cheap signals 2
m25
High earnings quality supports the multiple
Earnings quality score is high (clean accounting, real cash conversion), so the reported numbers can be taken closer to face value — this raises deserved value modestly versus peers with messier books.
m20
Dividend and buyback yield underpin price
Real capital return provides a floor — if the cycle holds, you're paid to wait, which limits downside even at full valuation.
Rich / priced-in 3
m45
No margin of safety on a cyclical
Paying mid-cycle multiple for a business that lost money two years ago means you absorb full downside in the next M&A trough. For a cyclical advisory house you want a discount, not parity.
m40
Quiet dilution erodes per-share value
Share count grew ~19% across the 2023 trough — that's real value transfer from shareholders to employees that the headline 'capital return' story obscures.
m30
e2e tags it 'Reasonable Premium'
The composite signal-adjusted fair value frames this as already trading at a premium, not a discount — consistent with the fair-but-not-cheap read.
I'd call this fairly valued and walk away. At $44.90 I'm paying mid-cycle multiples for a business that just lost money in 2023 and quietly diluted me 19% — that's not the setup where I want to be aggressive. The business is fine, the accounting is clean, the dividend helps, but cyclicals are bought at a discount or not at all. I'd want to see it closer to $37 — call it ~15-17% lower — before I'd take a real position. Until then, this is a watch, not a buy.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Normalized comp/revenue ratio guidance — comp ratio drift is the single biggest swing factor in deserved EPS
  • Net share count trajectory — is the 19% dilution behind us or ongoing?
  • Asset management net flows and fee rate trend — secular pressure here lowers deserved value
  • M&A advisory backlog/pipeline commentary on recent calls
  • Any one-time restructuring/severance charges distorting reported margins
General Sentiment
-9
Balanced
tail √Σ 47 · head √Σ 56 · conf 6/10

LAZ sits in an unusual sentiment vacuum: the narrative intensity is minimal and the story is durable but boring - a 175-year advisory franchise that the market prices on cash yield and deal flow rather than on any thematic bid. There is no AI halo, no cult premium, no momentum-chasing flow; equally, there is no active de-rating narrative crushing the name. That makes sentiment pressure structurally low on this ticker even though beta is 1.41. The macro tape is neutral with VIX 17 and the S&P just 1.8% off highs, but the 10y at 4.43% and 'macro headwinds' framing matter for a capital-markets name because M&A sentiment is rate-sensitive - higher-for-longer rates quietly cap the deal-flow story that bulls need. Analyst tone is mildly constructive (Buy consensus, target $47 vs $42.69, ~10% upside) but recent revisions averaged $42, BELOW the spot price - a subtle negative divergence: sell-side is trimming into a stable narrative. Momentum is positive long-term but cooling recently (3.3% vs 11.8% trend), which fits the read of fading enthusiasm rather than active selling. Net: a high-beta name without a story to ride the tape either way. Pressure is mildly mixed, leaning balanced.

Tailwinds 3
m35
Durable, fundamentals-anchored narrative
Story is 'steady compounder' with durable framing - no broken bull thesis, no active de-rating narrative; sentiment damage risk is structurally low.
m25
Neutral tape, not stressed
Regime is neutral with VIX 17 and S&P near highs - no broad risk-off cascade is currently dragging high-beta financials lower.
m20
Buy-skewed consensus
13 Buys vs 4 Sells with $47 target gives a mild positive baseline tone even if revisions are softening.
Headwinds 4
m35
Rate backdrop caps the M&A narrative
10y at 4.43% and 'macro headwinds' framing weigh on the deal-flow story advisory shops need; LAZ's revenue narrative is rate-sensitive even if the business itself is solid.
m30
Analyst target revisions drifting below spot
This month's revisions averaged $42 vs a $47 consensus and $42.69 price - sell-side is quietly trimming, a mild negative divergence from the headline Buy rating.
m25
High beta, no narrative shield
Beta 1.41 means any risk-off lurch hits hard, and with minimal narrative intensity there is no thematic bid or cult base to absorb selling pressure.
m20
Recent momentum cooling
3-month run of 3.3% vs 11.8% long-term trend suggests enthusiasm is fading at the margin, consistent with a quietly de-energizing story.
My read: this is a balanced sentiment setup leaning very slightly negative. There is no story carrying LAZ higher and no story actively breaking it - the narrative is quiet, durable, and tightly tethered to fundamentals, which means sentiment is doing very little work here in either direction. The two things I do not like are the analyst revisions drifting below spot price (a subtle tell that the pros are easing off) and the 1.4 beta without a thematic bid to defend it if the tape rolls over. But the neutral regime and absence of any active de-rating narrative keep this from being a real headwind. Net: balanced, with a soft downward tilt - I would not buy this for sentiment, but I would not avoid it for sentiment either.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Whether sell-side target revisions keep drifting below spot - that would flip tone negative
  • M&A volume headlines and any uptick in announced deals, which would re-energize the dormant narrative
  • VIX move above 20 or a credit-spread widening - would punish 1.4-beta financials disproportionately
  • Any catalyst (earnings, big mandate) that injects intensity into a currently minimal narrative
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
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Three lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), and General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 17, 2026 3:06:19 am

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 17, 2026 3:07am (10d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $3.3B $2.8B $2.6B $3.1B $3.2B
Cost of Revenue $1.9B $1.7B $1.9B $2.0B $2.2B
Gross Profit $1.4B $1.2B $605.1M $1.1B $1.0B
Operating Expenses $648.6M $652.3M $685.1M $696.6M $597.8M
Operating Income $723.8M $516.8M -$80.0M $386.5M $415.3M
Net Income $528.1M $357.5M -$75.5M $279.9M $236.8M
EBITDA $843.0M $640.8M $40.9M $511.3M $449.4M
EPS $4.90 $3.68 $-0.90 $2.93 $2.43
EPS (Diluted) — — — — —
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 17, 2026 3:03am (10d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $1.5B $1.2B $971.3M $1.3B $1.5B
Total Current Assets $4.5B $3.3B $2.3B $2.6B $2.4B
Total Assets $7.1B $5.9B $4.6B $4.8B $4.9B
Current Liabilities $2.2B $1.6B $1.0B $896.8M $80.7M
Long-Term Debt $1.7B $1.7B $1.7B $1.7B $2.1B
Total Liabilities $5.5B $4.6B $4.1B $4.0B $4.0B
Total Equity $975.2M $556.5M $423.8M $636.2M $873.7M
Retained Earnings $1.6B $1.7B $1.4B $1.5B $1.5B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 17, 2026 3:07am (10d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $866.1M $834.0M $164.7M $742.8M $537.2M
Capital Expenditure -$39.7M -$49.5M -$28.3M -$45.5M -$31.9M
Free Cash Flow $826.4M $784.5M $136.4M $697.3M $505.2M
Acquisitions (net) $642,000 $573,000 -$10.5M -$17.5M $0
Debt Repayment — — — — —
Dividends Paid — — — — —
Stock Buybacks -$406.1M -$691.7M -$102.1M -$59.5M -$91.0M
Net Change in Cash $861.2M -$790.6M -$1.4B $384.4M $162.8M
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 17, 2026 3:00am (10d ago)
Metric 2026 2027 2028 2029
Revenue $3.4B
$3.3B – $3.4B
 $4.0B
$3.8B – $4.2B
 $4.3B
$4.3B – $4.3B
 $4.3B
$4.1B – $4.5B
EBITDA $541.8M
$529.0M – $556.3M
 $648.7M
$612.6M – $684.8M
 $694.5M
$687.3M – $701.6M
 $692.3M
$658.3M – $726.0M
Net Income $295.1M
$287.8M – $302.4M
 $439.5M
$426.4M – $512.0M
 $563.4M
$527.4M – $599.1M
 $520.5M
$487.3M – $553.5M
EPS — — — —
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 17, 2026 3:07am (10d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth -13.5% -9.7% +21.0% +3.2%
Gross Profit Growth -14.8% -48.2% +79.0% -6.5%
Operating Income Growth -28.6% -115.5% +583.3% +7.5%
Net Income Growth -32.3% -121.1% +470.8% -15.4%
EBITDA Growth -24.0% -93.6% +1,150.0% -12.1%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 17, 2026 3:06am (10d ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-05-22 Farr Tracy A-Award 393.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-22 Gathy Michael A-Award 134.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-22 Hogbin Christopher A-Award 2,716.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-22 Soto Alexandra A-Award 3,138.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-15 Alper Andrew M A-Award 857.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-15 Howe Stephen R. Jr. A-Award 100.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-17 Hogbin Christopher M-Exempt 48,332.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-17 Hogbin Christopher M-Exempt 48,332.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-17 Hogbin Christopher F-InKind 24,674.00 $40.06 $988,440
2026-03-18 Hogbin Christopher S-Sale 7,885.00 $40.37 $318,317
2026-03-19 Hogbin Christopher S-Sale 3,944.00 $39.37 $155,275
2026-03-17 Farr Tracy A-Award 12,982.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-16 Orszag Peter Richard M-Exempt 138,340.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-16 Orszag Peter Richard D-Return 41,502.00 $40.82 $1.7M
2026-03-17 Orszag Peter Richard S-Sale 67,170.00 $40.73 $2.7M
2026-03-17 Orszag Peter Richard S-Sale 2,000.00 $41.66 $83,319
2026-03-16 Orszag Peter Richard M-Exempt 138,340.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-17 Soto Alexandra A-Award 101,739.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-17 Gathy Michael A-Award 5,564.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-02 Farr Tracy M-Exempt 5,903.00 $0.00 $0
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 17, 2026 3:00am (10d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-05-11 $0.50 2026-04-30 2026-05-11 2026-05-22
2026-02-09 $0.50 2026-01-28 2026-02-09 2026-02-20
2025-11-03 $0.50 2025-10-22 2025-11-03 2025-11-14
2025-08-04 $0.50 2025-07-23 2025-08-04 2025-08-15
2025-05-05 $0.50 2025-04-24 2025-05-05 2025-05-16
2025-02-10 $0.50 2025-01-29 2025-02-10 2025-02-21
2024-11-08 $0.50 2024-10-30 2024-11-08 2024-11-15
2024-08-05 $0.50 2024-07-24 2024-08-05 2024-08-16
2024-05-03 $0.50 2024-04-24 2024-05-06 2024-05-17
2024-02-09 $0.50 2024-01-31 2024-02-12 2024-02-23
2023-11-03 $0.50 2023-10-25 2023-11-06 2023-11-17
2023-08-04 $0.50 2023-07-26 2023-08-07 2023-08-18
2023-05-05 $0.50 2023-04-26 2023-05-08 2023-05-19
2023-02-10 $0.50 2023-02-01 2023-02-13 2023-02-24
2022-11-04 $0.50 2022-10-26 2022-11-07 2022-11-18
2022-08-05 $0.50 2022-07-27 2022-08-08 2022-08-19
2022-05-06 $0.47 2022-04-27 2022-05-09 2022-05-20
2022-02-11 $0.47 2022-02-02 2022-02-14 2022-02-25
2021-11-05 $0.47 2021-10-28 2021-11-08 2021-11-19
2021-08-06 $0.47 2021-07-29 2021-08-09 2021-08-20
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for LAZ — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-17 03:06:54
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict Fairly valued at $44.9 — collect the 3.9% yield while waiting for two more quarters to confirm Q1 2026's margin inflection; fair value $45-50, no edge to chase here.

Looking at the raw quarterlies first: Q1 2026 at $771.6M revenue / $100.9M NI / 13.1% margin is genuinely the best print in the dataset — better margin than any 2025 quarter and roughly matching Q3 2024's peak. Sequentially from Q1 2025 ($657.5M, 9.2%) to Q1 2026 ($771.6M, 13.1%), that's +17% revenue and ~470bps of margin expansion YoY. The full-year 2025 ($3.19B rev, $237M NI) was actually weaker on net income than 2024 ($280M) despite higher revenue — comp ratio expansion and Q4 2025's ugly 5.4% margin drag the year. But the Q1 2026 inflection is real and the synthesis layer is underselling it by framing this as "trough pessimism." This isn't a trough; M&A volumes are recovering and Lazard is participating.

That said, I push back on the synthesis verdict of "Reasonable Premium" being too bullish on intrinsic value. Look at the 5-year arc: 2021 NI was $528M, 2022 was $358M, 2023 was a $76M loss, 2024 was $280M, 2025 was $237M. The TTM P/E of 16x is anchored to a cyclically-improving but still-mediocre earnings base. If you normalize to a mid-cycle ~$300-350M NI, you get $4.4B mcap / $325M = ~13.5x — fair, not cheap, for a business with structurally lumpy earnings and a 0.0754 ROIC (the ROE of 33% is leverage-flattered; ROA of 5.2% is the honest number). The "0.2% implied growth is absurd" framing in the synthesis ignores that advisory revenue averaged across 2021-2025 is ~$2.99B — basically flat to declining. Five-year revenue CAGR is actually slightly negative from the 2021 peak.

The Market Forces signal flagging "deteriorating franchise losing systematic market share" deserves more weight than the synthesis gives it. Lazard's advisory revenue has not kept pace with Evercore, Moelis, or PJT through this cycle — that's the empirical reality, not pessimism. The insider activity reinforces this: the May 2026 awards are routine comp, but the March 2026 M-Exempt/F-InKind/S-Sale combo (48,332 + 48,332 exercised, 24,674 withheld, 7,885 sold) is option-exercise-and-sell behavior at $44-45, not conviction buying. Nobody on the inside is stepping up. The 3.94% dividend yield is the actual support under this stock — at ~$1.77/share dividend on $237M NI ($2.40 EPS), that's a 74% payout ratio, which is sustainable but leaves zero cushion for another 2023-style loss year.

The contrarian read here is that the market is correctly pricing Lazard as a slow-no-growth dividend payer at ~16x trough-ish earnings, and the bullish "franchise undervalued" thesis requires you to believe Q1 2026's 13.1% margin is the new run-rate rather than an in-quarter mix benefit. I'd want two more quarters of >10% margins before underwriting that. The narrative layer's call of "anchored, durable, boring" is the most honest read in the prior outputs — this is not a mispriced situation, it's a fairly-priced cyclical with a decent yield. I dissent from the synthesis "Reasonable Premium" framing (which leans bullish-of-fair) and side closer to Market Forces neutral-to-cautious. Fair value with the Q1 inflection sustaining is maybe $48-52; without sustain, $38-42. At $44.9 you're paid 3.9% to wait and find out, which isn't terrible but isn't a setup that demands action.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-17 03:07:03
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I agree with Opus — fairly valued at $44.9, with a speculative fair value range of $45-50, but I would urge caution and prefer a fair value closer to $42-46, considering the historical earnings volatility and market share concerns.

In analyzing Lazard Ltd's financials, several elements stand out to me. Firstly, the company's quarterly revenue and net income for Q1 2026 show a marked improvement, with revenue reaching $771.6 million and net income at $100.9 million, resulting in a margin of 13.1%. This is a substantial improvement over previous quarters, particularly compared to the 5.4% margin in Q4 2025. However, when viewed over a broader timeline, Lazard's performance seems inconsistent, with net income fluctuating significantly from a high of $528.1 million in 2021 to a loss in 2023. The annual revenue from 2021 to 2025 shows little growth, suggesting a stagnation in revenue generation. The company's cash flow remains robust, with a free cash flow of $505.2 million in 2025, yet the high P/E ratio of 16.1x and a P/B ratio of 5.4x could indicate that the stock is currently overvalued given its volatile earnings history.

I concur with Claude Opus's analysis in several areas. Opus highlights the importance of the Q1 2026 performance as a potential inflection point, indicating a recovery in M&A volumes. I agree with this assessment, as the 17% year-over-year revenue growth and margin expansion lend credence to this viewpoint. Nonetheless, I diverge from Opus's view on the sufficiency of this single quarter's data to indicate a sustainable trend. While Opus calls for two more quarters to confirm the margin improvements, which I agree with, I am more cautious about projecting future performance based solely on this recent uptick given the historical volatility in Lazard's earnings.

Furthermore, I agree with Opus's skepticism towards the "Reasonable Premium" verdict from the synthesis. The synthesis appears overly optimistic, ignoring the stagnation in Lazard's advisory revenue when averaged over five years. Opus correctly notes that Lazard's advisory revenue has not kept pace with peers like Evercore or PJT Partners, which aligns with my interpretation that Lazard is potentially losing market share. This issue is compounded by insider transactions, which suggest a lack of confidence in a significant upside, as evidenced by recent option exercises and sales.

A careful skeptic might argue that both Opus's and my analysis could be underestimating the potential for Lazard to revitalize its growth trajectory, especially if the M&A market continues to recover. They may contend that the company's strong historical pedigree and robust free cash flow could support strategic investments or acquisitions that reignite growth.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.352 · d1100787 · 2026-06-26 11:39:30