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AGING Analysis Report
Aug 3, 2026
20 days ago · 100% complete
UNVERIFIED BASIS Generated before the data-freshness fixes of Aug 14, 2026 — treat as indicative.
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Universal Display Corporation (OLED) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score -3 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 59 · Value -54 · Sentiment -48 (timing only, not weighted)

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

Universal Display Corporation

OLED NASDAQ
Technology · Electronic Components
Ewing, NJ 08618, United States oled.com Updated Aug 3, 11:55am
Price
$80.69
Market Cap
$3.7B
Employees
469
Beta
Avg Volume
798,247
Last Dividend
$1.90
CEO
Mr. Steven V. Abramson

Universal Display Corporation is a technology company specializing in organic light-emitting diode, or OLED, technologies and materials for the global display and lighting industries. The company focuses on inventing, developing, and commercializing proprietary OLED technologies, including its phosphorescent OLED (PHOLED) materials, which are designed to enable energy-efficient, high-performance displays. Universal Display Corporation generates revenue primarily through the development and supply of advanced OLED materials and the licensing of its intellectual property portfolio to leading panel manufacturers worldwide. Its technologies are used across a broad range of applications such as smartphones, tablets, laptops, monitors, televisions, wearables, automotive displays, AR/VR devices, gaming displays, and solid-state lighting. Headquartered in Ewing, New Jersey, and founded in 1994, the company operates internationally with offices in major display manufacturing regions, supporting a central role in the OLED supply chain and contributing key enabling materials and know-how to many of the world’s commercial OLED products.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 3, 2026 12:05pm
Price Overview
Price at report time
$79.81
as of Aug 3, 12:13pm (20d ago)
Change · Aug 3
-0.35 (-0.44%)
Day Range
$79.70 – $82.49
52-Week Range
$76.42 – $153.38
50-Day MA
$85.52
200-Day MA
$105.91
Volume
67,952.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 20d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 46,231,008.00
Float 42,171,353.00
Free Float 91.2%
High free float — 91.2% of shares trade freely, ~8.8% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:27pm (20d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:26pm (20d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 3, 2026 12:03pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
15.88
Stock Price: $80.69
EPS (Diluted): 5.08
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
2.18
Stock Price: $80.69
Total Equity: $1.76B
Shares: 47,658,295
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
13.03
Market Cap: $3.75B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $138.35M
EBITDA: $276.97M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$3.6B
Market Cap: $3.75B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $138.35M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
76.3%
Gross Profit: $496.49M
Revenue: $650.61M
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
38.2%
Operating Income: $248.58M
Revenue: $650.61M
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
37.2%
Net Income: $242.08M
Revenue: $650.61M
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
13.7%
Net Income: $242.08M
Total Equity: $1.76B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
12.6%
Operating Income: $248.58M
Tax Rate: 17.9%
Equity: $1.76B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $138.35M
Zero debt — invested capital = equity minus cash (very efficient)
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
10.06
Current Assets: $1.09B
Current Liabilities: $108.01M
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.00
Short-Term Debt: $0.00
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $0.00
Total Equity: $1.76B
Zero debt — this company carries no debt obligations. Strongest possible score.
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$13.65
Revenue: $650.61M
Shares: 47,658,295
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$36.95
Total Equity: $1.76B
Shares: 47,658,295
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$3.24
Operating CF: $210.83M
CapEx: -$56.47M
Shares: 47,658,295
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
2.4%
Last Dividend: $1.90
Stock Price: $80.69
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
35.3%
Dividends Paid: -$85.55M
Net Income: $242.08M
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 3, 2026 12:03pm
Compares OLED against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:26pm (20d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $553.5M $616.6M $576.4M $647.7M $650.6M
Cost of Revenue $115.0M $127.9M $135.4M $148.5M $154.1M
Gross Profit $438.5M $488.7M $441.1M $499.2M $496.5M
Operating Expenses $210.9M $221.6M $223.9M $260.4M $247.9M
Operating Income $227.6M $267.1M $217.2M $238.8M $248.6M
Net Income $184.2M $210.1M $203.0M $222.1M $242.1M
EBITDA $247.6M $291.9M $244.6M $264.7M $277.0M
EPS $3.87 $4.41 $4.25 $4.66 $5.09
EPS (Diluted) $3.87 $4.40 $4.24 $4.65 $5.08
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 11:55am (20d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $312.0M $93.4M $92.0M $99.0M $138.4M
Total Current Assets $925.9M $899.5M $917.1M $899.8M $1.1B
Total Assets $1.5B $1.5B $1.7B $1.8B $2.0B
Current Liabilities $187.9M $135.7M $118.8M $125.4M $108.0M
Long-Term Debt
Total Liabilities $367.0M $257.5M $221.7M $215.8M $202.7M
Total Equity $1.1B $1.3B $1.4B $1.6B $1.8B
Retained Earnings $500.2M $653.3M $789.6M $934.7M $1.1B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:26pm (20d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $191.1M $126.8M $154.8M $253.7M $210.8M
Capital Expenditure -$43.2M -$42.5M -$59.8M -$42.6M -$56.5M
Free Cash Flow $147.9M $84.3M $95.0M $211.1M $154.4M
Acquisitions (net)
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid)
Dividends Paid -$37.9M -$57.0M -$66.7M -$76.2M -$85.5M
Stock Buybacks $0 $0 $0 -$32.9M
Net Change in Cash -$318.0M -$218.6M -$1.4M $7.0M $39.4M
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:26pm (20d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +11.4% -6.5% +12.4% +0.5%
Gross Profit Growth +11.4% -9.8% +13.2% -0.5%
Operating Income Growth +17.3% -18.7% +10.0% +4.1%
Net Income Growth +14.0% -3.4% +9.4% +9.0%
EBITDA Growth +17.9% -16.2% +8.2% +4.6%
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 11:55am (20d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-06-16 $0.50
2026-03-17 $0.50
2025-12-17 $0.45
2025-09-16 $0.45
2025-06-16 $0.45
2025-03-17 $0.45
2024-12-17 $0.40
2024-09-16 $0.40
2024-06-14 $0.40
2024-03-14 $0.40
2023-12-14 $0.35
2023-09-14 $0.35
2023-06-15 $0.35
2023-03-16 $0.35
2022-12-15 $0.30
2022-09-15 $0.30
2022-06-15 $0.30
2022-03-16 $0.30
2021-12-15 $0.20
2021-09-15 $0.20
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable errored not yet run 12 computed · 6 not applicable · 1 errored · 5 not yet run
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for OLED — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-08-03 12:25:15
Verdict Overvalued at $80.69 given Q1'26 margin collapse to 25% and flat YoY revenue — fair value $55-60 if margin compression persists, $64 if it normalizes; wait for Q2'26 print before committing.

Reading the raw numbers first: OLED is not accelerating, it's plateauing. Annual revenue went $553M→$616M→$576M→$647M→$650M — that's a 6.2% CAGR flattered by the 2023 trough, and the 2024→2025 delta is essentially zero ($647.7M to $650.6M, +0.5%). The most recent quarter, March 2026 at $142.2M with 25.2% net margin, is the weakest print in the visible series on both lines — down 14.5% sequentially and, more damning, down 14.5% year-over-year vs Q1 2025's $166.3M at 38.8% margin. The "accelerating quarterly trend" tag in the secondary signals is flat wrong; the trajectory is decelerating and margins are compressing hard (Q1'26 NI margin of 25.2% vs a trailing average nearer 35%). Balance sheet is pristine — zero debt, $138M cash, 10x current ratio, 76% gross margin, 38% operating margin — this is a genuine IP-royalty franchise, not a cyclical widget maker. But franchise quality doesn't rescue a stagnating top line at 15.9x earnings when growth is decelerating into the print.

On the prior models: the synthesis verdict of "fully priced, fair value ~$64" is directionally right but I think the models are being too generous on the growth assumption. The narrative layer's "platform-monopoly, anchored, moderate intensity" read is accurate — this is a real moat (Samsung, LG, BOE all pay UDC), but the bear case is already showing up in the numbers. Q1'26's margin collapse to 25% is exactly what you'd expect from pricing pressure or unfavorable material/royalty mix as Chinese panel makers gain leverage. The pre-flight thesis that "market prices in stagnation" is half-right — the market is pricing in stagnation of the current business but still assigning a platform multiple (5.9x sales, 15.9x earnings on a no-growth base). Meanwhile the "Significant Insider Buying" tag is nonsense — those are award grants and a gift, not open-market purchases. That's a data-quality error the models are feeding on. Sector Leader is fair; Macro Headwinds is generic.

The contrarian bull case that no one is articulating cleanly: UDC has zero debt, $210M operating cash flow on $650M revenue (32% OCF margin), pays a 2.35% dividend with only 35% payout, and if OLED penetration into IT panels and automotive arrives on the 2027-2029 timeline that Samsung and LG capex plans suggest, the company gets a step-function revenue lift with essentially no incremental capex (capex was only $56M). At $80.69 and $3.75B market cap, you're paying ~24x FCF for a monopoly-adjacent IP business with net cash — not obviously expensive if you believe the next OLED wave shows up. The contrarian bear case, which I find more compelling given Q1'26: the Chinese design-around risk is materializing now, not later. A one-quarter margin drop from 39% to 25% on flat-ish revenue is exactly the fingerprint of royalty renegotiation or mix shift toward lower-margin material sales as customers push back. If Q2'26 confirms sub-30% net margins, the earnings base resets from ~$240M to ~$180M and the "15.9x P/E" becomes 21x on the true run-rate.

I partially agree with the synthesis but lean more bearish. Fair value at $64 assumes margins normalize; if the Q1'26 margin is the new normal rather than an anomaly, fair value is closer to $50-55. The stock at $80.69 requires you to believe either (a) Q1'26 margin was one-time noise, or (b) OLED TAM expansion arrives before patent cliff / Chinese alternatives erode pricing. Neither is unreasonable, but neither is demonstrated in the data on the table. I would not be short — the balance sheet, dividend, and moat make this a poor short — but I wouldn't own it here either. Wait for the Q2'26 print to confirm whether margins recover to the mid-30s or stay in the mid-20s; that single data point resolves 70% of the thesis. Meaningful accumulation zone is $55-60, where you're paid for the platform optionality without underwriting the margin recovery.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-03 12:25:33
Verdict Overvalued at $80.69 — outstanding margins and balance sheet, but the latest quarter exposed a business still priced for growth that the revenue line has not actually delivered; fair value is closer to $62-$68.

At $80.69, I think the market is still paying too much for a business that has elite margins but not elite growth. The raw numbers say Universal Display is a wonderful company and a merely okay stock here. Annual revenue has gone from $553.5 million in 2021 to $650.6 million in 2025, which is only about 4% total growth over the last three years from the 2022 peak of $616.6 million to 2025. That is not the profile that normally deserves 5.9x sales. What is genuinely impressive is profitability: 2025 gross margin was 76.3%, operating margin 38.2%, and net margin 37.2%, with $242.1 million of net income on $650.6 million of revenue. The balance sheet is equally clean, with no debt, $138.4 million of cash, and a current ratio above 10. This is a royalty-and-materials model that converts a lot of revenue into earnings, and the 15.9x P/E looks optically cheap for technology. But that multiple only looks cheap if the earnings base is durable and positioned to grow; the revenue line so far looks far more cyclical and range-bound than compounder-like.

The quarterly pattern is what stands out most. Revenue was $166.3 million in 2025Q1, $171.8 million in Q2, then dropped to $139.6 million in Q3 before rebounding to $172.9 million in Q4, and then fell again to $142.2 million in 2026Q1. Net income followed the same pattern, from $64.4 million in 2025Q1 to $67.3 million in Q2, down to $44.0 million in Q3, up to $66.3 million in Q4, then back to $35.9 million in 2026Q1. Even allowing for customer ordering lumpiness and royalty timing, that is not a business showing clear demand acceleration. The latest quarter is particularly hard to celebrate: revenue declined 14.5% year over year from $166.3 million to $142.2 million, and net income dropped 44% from $64.4 million to $35.9 million, with margin compressing from 38.8% to 25.2%. That directly contradicts any claim of “accelerating” recent fundamentals. The annual numbers remain respectable because the model has huge cushions, but the most recent datapoint says near-term earnings power is lower than the trailing 2025 result investors are capitalizing.

Cash flow does not fully bail out the bull case either. Operating cash flow of $210.8 million on $242.1 million of net income is fine, but free cash flow was $154.4 million after $56.5 million of capex. Against a $3.75 billion market cap, that is roughly a 4.1% FCF yield. For a business with essentially flat annual revenue between 2024 and 2025—$647.7 million to $650.6 million—that is not obviously cheap, even with a debt-free balance sheet and a 2.35% dividend yield. The clean capital structure and high returns on capital, 12.6% ROIC and 13.8% ROE, absolutely deserve a premium to generic hardware names. But the current price appears to capitalize a reopening of growth that the reported numbers have not yet delivered. If the business were growing 10-15% organically with these margins, $80 would be easier to defend; with revenue effectively stuck around the mid-$600 million range and quarter-to-quarter volatility this high, fair value looks closer to the low-to-mid $60s.

The best case against my view is straightforward: this is exactly the kind of company that screens as expensive on sales and EV/revenue right before a new adoption leg makes those multiples look silly. Net income has still risen from $184.2 million in 2021 to $242.1 million in 2025, a 31% increase, while free cash flow growth has been even stronger over time. Gross profit stayed near $500 million in both 2024 and 2025 despite little top-line growth, showing how resilient the economics are. A 15.9x trailing P/E and 13.0x EV/EBITDA for a monopoly-like IP supplier with zero debt, 76% gross margins, and end-market optionality in IT displays, auto, and potentially other form factors is not egregious. If OLED penetration broadens even modestly, incremental revenue could carry very high drop-through. That is a real argument, and it explains why the stock can trade above a plain DCF. I weigh it less heavily because the market has been telling that OLED expansion story for years while the actual annual revenue line still oscillates rather than compounds.

What would change my mind is not another narrative about future applications but evidence in the reported numbers that a new growth phase has started. I would want to see at least two consecutive quarters above $170 million of revenue, with year-over-year growth back into the low teens and net margins recovering into the 35%-40% range. On a full-year basis, a path to $700 million-plus revenue with operating income above $270 million would make $80 look much more reasonable, especially if cash flow conversion improved and capex normalized. Conversely, if 2026 trends toward another roughly $650 million year with earnings pressured by weaker royalty timing or material mix, the current multiple is too generous for a mature IP franchise.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-08-03 12:26:17
Verdict High-quality IP cash cow but growth stalled; $80.69 prices in recovery that Q1 2026 contradicts — fair value nearer $65-70

Universal Display’s numbers describe a pristine cash engine whose top line has simply stopped moving. Full-year 2025 revenue of $650.6 M was a rounding error above 2024’s $647.7 M; the five-year revenue CAGR sits at a pedestrian 6.2 %. Yet the company still converted that flat revenue into $242 M of net income (37 % margin), $211 M of operating cash flow and $154 M of free cash flow, all while carrying zero debt and $138 M of cash against a $1.76 B equity base. Gross margin remains an extraordinary 76 %, operating margin 38 %. The most recent print, however, is ugly: Q1 2026 revenue collapsed to $142 M from $166 M a year earlier and net margin compressed to 25 %. That single quarter undercuts the “high revenue confidence / accelerating” secondary signal and confirms that smartphone OLED penetration has largely matured while the next waves (IT panels, automotive, foldables) have not yet shown up in the P&L.

At $80.69 the stock trades at 15.9× trailing earnings, 13× EV/EBITDA and 5.5× EV/sales—multiples that look reasonable only if modest growth resumes. With revenue growth at essentially zero and FCF yield a modest 4.1 %, the market is already paying a full price for the existing royalty stream. The valuation synthesis fair-value band around $64 implies roughly 20 % downside; given the stalled top line and the soft March quarter I see little reason to quarrel with that anchor. A 2.35 % dividend and fortress balance sheet provide a floor, but they do not justify a premium when the growth story is on pause.

The strongest counter-argument is quality and optionality. Few businesses generate mid-30 % net margins, 12–14 % ROIC and 27 % FCF CAGR with no leverage and a genuine IP moat that every major panel maker still must license. If OLED finally breaks out of phones into automotive and large-area IT displays, the incremental royalty dollars drop almost entirely to free cash flow; the same $650 M revenue base could support far higher earnings power and a re-rating toward 20×. Bulls will also note that earnings still grew 9 % last year despite flat sales, evidence of residual operating leverage and mix shift toward higher-royalty materials. That case is real, but it remains a call option on volumes that have not yet appeared in the reported numbers.

I would reverse stance on two concrete catalysts: (1) two consecutive quarters of year-over-year revenue growth above 8 % accompanied by management commentary that automotive or IT material shipments have begun scaling, or (2) a clear step-up in the royalty rate or material ASP that lifts trailing net margin back above 38 % on a run-rate basis. Absent those, the stock looks like a high-quality mature earner priced for growth that is not currently visible.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 1.7; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.3 vs panel · self: 3.0
GPT gpt-5.4 1.0
overvalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -0.7 vs panel · self: 3.0
Grok grok-4.5 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.3 vs panel · self: 4.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-03 13:39:38
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality - wait for a dip 7/10
Great IP-licensing business at a full price with a fresh guide-down bruise - watchlist, not buy.
The cruxWhether OLED penetration and licensing rates re-accelerate enough to justify a growth multiple on a revenue line flat since 2022 - Q2 print is the tell.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from OLED's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwayFortress Balance Sheet
DilutionStable Share Count
Earnings QualityGood Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+59
Strong
edge √Σ 154 · risk √Σ 86 · conf 8/10

Universal Display runs a rare business model: a materials-and-IP licensor to the OLED display supply chain with gross margins persistently at 76-79% and operating margins in the high 30s to low 40s. The balance sheet is a fortress - $602M liquid cash, zero net debt, Altman Z of 13.2, and $154M of annual FCF that fully self-funds the business. Earnings quality checks are clean: OCF/NI 0.88x, accruals just 1.5% of assets, Beneish M at -2.37. Insider tape shows genuine open-market P-code buying by Elias and Premutico (~$362K combined at ~$90/sh range) with zero sales - a directionally positive signal.

Strengths 5
m85
Fortress balance sheet
$602M cash, no debt, 16% of market cap in cash, Altman Z 13.2. Survival risk is effectively nil.
m80
Elite gross margin structure
GM% held 76-79% across five years - characteristic of a royalty/IP model rather than a components manufacturer. OpM% 37-43%.
m70
Clean earnings integrity
Beneish M -2.37, accruals 1.5% of assets, OCF/NI 0.88x. Net income $242M on $650M rev in 2025 with FCF $154M - reported profits track cash reasonably.
m55
Disciplined share count
Diluted shares 47.4M to 47.7M over five years (0.2% CAGR); SBC 4.3% of revenue is modest for tech.
m45
Real insider buying
Two directors made open-market P-purchases (~$362K total) in May 2026 with zero insider sales in the tape - rare and directionally meaningful.
Concerns 4
m55
Growth has stalled
Revenue path $553M -> $617M -> $576M -> $648M -> $651M. Essentially flat 2022-2025 after a 2023 dip; the growth story of an OLED-adoption compounder is not visible in recent prints.
m40
Margin drift lower
OpM% peaked at 43.3% in 2022 and now sits at 38.2%; GM% down ~3 points from peak. Not alarming but the operating leverage is moving the wrong way.
m35
Buybacks only offset ~23% of SBC
Repurchases are mopping up dilution rather than genuinely returning capital, despite the huge cash pile.
m40
Customer concentration risk (structural)
Business model implies heavy dependence on Samsung Display, LG Display, and a handful of panel makers - not visible in this data but a known structural exposure.
This is a genuinely high-quality business: an IP licensor with structural 77% gross margins, zero debt, $600M of cash, and reported earnings that map cleanly to cash. Nothing in the mechanical forensics rings alarm bells, and insiders are quietly buying. What keeps me from calling it Fortress is the growth curve - revenue has essentially flatlined since 2022 and operating margins have compressed a few points. It looks like a mature, moaty niche business rather than a still-expanding one, and the concentrated customer base (implicit, not in this data) is the tail risk I would want to size before getting more emphatic. Solidly Strong, not yet elite.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Customer concentration disclosure in 10-K (Samsung Display / LG Display % of revenue)
  • Split between materials sales vs royalty/license revenue and margin trajectory of each
  • Status and expiry timeline of key OLED patents and any licensing renewal negotiations
  • R&D spend trend and pipeline (blue phosphorescent OLED commercialization progress)
  • Capital return policy - why the cash pile keeps growing rather than being returned
Valuation / Mispricing
-54
Rich
edge √Σ 36 · risk √Σ 96 · conf 7/10
Price $80.18 vs deserved ~$62-64, roughly 20-25% overvalued - no margin of safety. attractive below $55.00

The e2e composite pegs fair value at $62.03 (signal-adjusted $64.20) against a $80.18 print, implying ~20-25% downside. The two conservative methods cluster tightly and low - DCF at $45.30 and EPV floor at $43.50 - while only the anchored P/E at $114.03 supports the current quote, and that method is essentially extrapolating a premium multiple onto flat earnings. Stripping out ~$13/share of net cash ($600M / 47M shares), the operating business is being valued near $67, still a healthy multiple on a revenue line that has flatlined since 2022. What has to be true to justify $80: OLED penetration re-accelerates into IT/auto, licensing rates hold against Chinese pushback, and material margins stop compressing. That is the bull case verbatim - it is fully embedded in the price. The quality lens (Strong, 59) legitimately lifts deserved value above the DCF/EPV floor, which is why I lean on the composite $62-64 rather than the $45 methods. But even generously crediting the moat, the margin of safety is negative here. This is a fine business at a full price, not a mispricing.

Cheap signals 2
m28
Net cash cushions the enterprise value
~$600M cash and zero debt strip ~$13/share out, so EV-based multiples are meaningfully lower than headline P/E suggests; this is why I do not call it Overvalued.
m22
Quality lifts deserved value above DCF floor
77% gross margins and clean earnings quality justify weighting the composite ($62) over the strict EPV floor ($44); a true dislocation would need price nearer that floor.
Rich / priced-in 3
m62
Composite FV ~20% below price
Signal-adjusted FV $64.20 vs $80.18 implies -20% upside; two of three methods (DCF $45, EPV $44) sit far below and only the anchored P/E at $114 supports the tape.
m55
Flat revenue does not deserve premium multiple
Top-line stalled since 2022 and operating margins compressed, yet the stock still trades near a growth-licensor multiple - the anchored P/E method is likely stale-anchored to a growth regime that ended.
m48
Bull case fully priced
Justifying $80 requires OLED penetration re-acceleration, licensing rates holding vs BOE workarounds, and material margin defense - all bull-narrative items, none discounted.
Good business, wrong price. The composite says $62-64, the conservative methods say mid-$40s, and only a stretched P/E anchor gets you above today's $80. I am not short it - the moat and cash are real - but I would not pay here. I want a mid-$50s handle, roughly 15-20% below the composite FV, before the quality-adjusted math turns interesting. Until then it is a watchlist name at a full price.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Forward licensing rate disclosures in 10-K and any renegotiation language with Samsung Display
  • Material sales gross margin trajectory - any further compression narrows deserved value
  • Management commentary on IT/auto OLED design wins and timing
  • Whether Chinese panel makers (BOE) are litigating or designing around key patents
  • Buyback pace vs the $600M cash pile - capital return would raise deserved value
General Sentiment
-48
Headwind
tail √Σ 50 · head √Σ 103 · conf 7/10

The market tape is neutral-to-mildly-constructive (VIX 16, S&P near highs), so there is no broad risk-off wave beating this name. The pressure is name-specific: OLED just missed Q2 (revenue -11.4% y/y), cut full-year guidance, and the news cycle is dominated by 'weak smartphone demand and supply chain headwinds.' That reframes the platform-monopoly story from 'inevitable OLED TAM expansion' into 'licensing model with cyclical exposure and Chinese design-around risk,' which is exactly the bear script. Narrative intensity is only moderate and durability is moderate - there is no cult bid to absorb a guide-down. Analyst/press tone has pivoted to 'reasonable but broken' and 'could be 37% undervalued' framing - that is value-trap language, not accumulation language, and it tends to cap rallies rather than spark them. Momentum confirms: recent 0.5% vs 6.2% long-term trend is a stall, not a base. Macro sensitivity is mild (low beta, profitable, cash-generative), so higher rates and a 26.9x market PE are a background drag rather than the driver. The dominant force is the guide-down narrative overhang on a story stock whose story just weakened.

Tailwinds 2
m40
'Undervalued' framing in the press
Multiple pieces headline 'reasonable' and '37% undervalued' after the drop - this puts a soft floor by attracting value-oriented flows, though such tone rarely sparks a rally.
m30
Neutral macro tape, low beta
VIX 16 and S&P near highs mean no risk-off amplification; profitable, cash-generative profile shields OLED from rate/PE macro drag hitting speculative names.
Headwinds 4
m70
Guide-down reframes the story
Q2 miss plus lowered 2026 revenue guidance directly undercuts the 'OLED TAM inevitability' bull narrative and hands the bear (Chinese design-around, licensing compression) the microphone.
m55
Weak smartphone / supply chain overhang
News flow is uniformly pointing at soft material volumes and customer mix - a cyclical narrative that dents the 'pure-leverage royalty compounder' framing this stock trades on.
m45
Momentum stall, no cult bid
Recent 0.5% vs 6.2% long-term trend and low cult coefficient mean there is no reflexive dip-buying base; sentiment drifts lower on light news.
m25
Moderate rate/PE backdrop
10y at 4.68% and market PE 26.9 remain a mild systemic drag on mid-cap tech multiples, particularly stories that just downshifted guidance.
Net headwind, not a strong one. The macro tape is fine - this is a self-inflicted narrative bruise: a guide-down on a story stock whose story is moderate-intensity and moderate-durability, with no cult to absorb the hit. The 'undervalued after the drop' press chatter puts a soft floor but rarely ignites a bid; expect the tape to grind sideways-to-lower until either estimates stabilize or a smartphone-cycle data point breaks the current framing.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Whether sell-side revisions stabilize or keep cutting into next quarter
  • Any commentary on Chinese licensee renewal terms or design-around progress
  • Smartphone OLED unit data from Samsung/LG that could either confirm or break the weak-demand narrative
  • Sector rotation into semis/components that could lift OLED on flows alone
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
not run

This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.

The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.562 · 9b2927c4 · 2026-08-22 16:52:06