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FRESH Analysis Report
Jun 23, 2026
4 days ago · 82% complete · +8 refreshed

Oracle Corporation

ORCL NYSE Categories PDF
Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Austin, TX 78741, United States IPO 1986 oracle.com Updated Jun 27, 3:26am
Price
$148.68
Market Cap
$428.3B
Employees
159,000
Beta
1.66
Avg Volume
29,585,368
CEO
Michael D. Sicilia
Business Description

Oracle Corporation, a global technology giant, provides a comprehensive suite of enterprise information technology solutions worldwide. A core part of its portfolio comprises cloud-based software-as-a-service (SaaS) applications, including the Oracle Fusion Cloud suite covering enterprise resource planning (ERP), enterprise performance management (EPM), supply chain and manufacturing management (SCM), and human capital management (HCM). This also extends to specialized offerings like Oracle Advertising, the NetSuite application suite, and Oracle Fusion solutions for Sales, Service, and Marketing. Beyond these, Oracle develops cloud solutions tailored for various specific industries, alongside traditional application licenses and comprehensive license support services. Furthermore, the company's robust cloud and licensing business is underpinned by its infrastructure technologies. These include the flagship Oracle Database, the widely adopted Java programming language, and various middleware components such as development tools. Its advanced cloud infrastructure provides compute, storage, and networking capabilities, complemented by innovative services like the Oracle Autonomous Database, MySQL HeatWave, Internet-of-Things (IoT) platforms, digital assistants, and blockchain technology. Oracle also offers a range of hardware products and associated software. This encompasses Oracle engineered systems, enterprise servers, storage solutions, and specialized hardware for particular industries. Additionally, it provides virtualization software, operating systems, management software, and related hardware support. Complementing its product lines, Oracle delivers expert consulting and dedicated customer services. The company employs a direct sales model, reaching businesses across diverse sectors, government bodies, and educational institutions globally, while also leveraging an extensive network of indirect channels. Established in 1977, Oracle Corporation maintains its corporate headquarters in Austin, Texas.

Business History
Generated: May 13, 2026 11:09am
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 7:07am (just now)
$148.68
-3.78 (-2.48%)
Day Range
$148.00 – $153.54
52-Week Range
$134.57 – $345.72
50-Day MA
$189.50
200-Day MA
$203.61
Volume
16,964.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $160.00
Consensus $253.50
High $325.00
(196 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 2,880,470,000.00
Float 1,713,390,565.00
Free Float 59.5%
Normal free float — 59.5% of shares trade freely, ~40.5% held by insiders/institutions
Healthy float typical of established companies. Good liquidity for entering and exiting positions without major price impact.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 3:26am (3h ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 23, 2026 3:03am (4d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 23, 2026 3:02am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
25.04
Stock Price: $148.68
EPS (Diluted): 5.94
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
16.80
Stock Price: $148.68
Total Equity: $42.51B
Shares: 2,915,000,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
17.23
Market Cap: $428.27B
Total Debt: $156.19B
Cash: $31.29B
EBITDA: $32.14B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$839.1B
Market Cap: $428.27B
Total Debt: $156.19B
Cash: $31.29B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
65.2%
Gross Profit: $43.92B
Revenue: $67.36B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
30.8%
Operating Income: $20.78B
Revenue: $67.36B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
25.4%
Net Income: $17.09B
Revenue: $67.36B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
50.6%
Net Income: $17.09B
Total Equity: $42.51B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
8.0%
Operating Income: $20.78B
Tax Rate: 12.6%
Equity: $42.51B
Total Debt: $156.19B
Cash: $31.29B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.12
Current Assets: $46.57B
Current Liabilities: $41.76B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
3.67
Short-Term Debt: $7.20B
Long-Term Debt: $148.99B
Total Debt: $156.19B
Total Equity: $42.51B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$23.11
Revenue: $67.36B
Shares: 2,915,000,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$14.58
Total Equity: $42.51B
Shares: 2,915,000,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$-8.13
Operating CF: $31.98B
CapEx: -$55.66B
Shares: 2,915,000,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.8%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $148.68
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $17.09B
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 23, 2026 3:02am
Compares ORCL against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · three lenses
Three separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-06-25 13:01:46
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality-mixed, richly priced - wait for $125 7/10
Oracle is a genuinely good business that has bet its balance sheet on AI infrastructure, and at $152 the market is already paying for that bet to work - I wait.
The cruxWhether OCI capacity converts the -$23.7B FCF and $124B net debt into a real cash-on-cash return before the credit market or multiple punishes the leverage.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from ORCL's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwayCritical Runway
DilutionStable Share Count
Earnings QualityGood Earnings Quality
The three lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
-23
Mixed
edge √Σ 115 · risk √Σ 137 · conf 6/10

Operationally Oracle still looks like a high-quality mature software franchise: revenue compounded from $42.4B (2022) to $67.4B (2026), operating margin expanded from 25.7% to 30.8%, and net income nearly tripled from $6.72B to $17.09B. Diluted share count grew only ~1.1%/yr and buybacks exceeded SBC (126%), so per-share value is not being eroded by dilution. Accruals are clean (-5.1% of assets), OCF/NI was 1.75x historically, and Beneish M of -2.52 shows no manipulation flags - reported earnings appear real. The problem is the capital structure and cash burn driving the AI/OCI buildout. FCF collapsed from +$11.8B (2024) to -$394M (2025) to -$23.7B (2026), gross margin compressed from 79% to 65% as lower-margin cloud infra scales, and net debt sits at -$124B against only $31.9B liquid cash. Altman Z of 1.76 is in the distress zone, and the module flags ~5 quarters of runway at the current burn - meaning Oracle is structurally dependent on continued debt issuance or a rapid FCF reversal as OCI capacity monetizes. Insider tape is non-directional (awards/exercises only, no open-market P/S), so no signal there. The business quality verdict hinges on whether the AI capex actually earns its cost of capital; today the financials show a great legacy franchise being levered hard into a capital-intensive bet.

Strengths 4
m75
Durable revenue growth with margin expansion
Revenue grew $42.4B to $67.4B (12% CAGR) while operating margin expanded from 25.7% to 30.8% and net income rose from $6.72B to $17.09B - classic high-quality compounding.
m55
Clean earnings quality
Accruals -5.1% of assets, historical OCF/NI 1.75x, Beneish M -2.52 - reported earnings are backed by cash and show no manipulation flags.
m50
Dilution discipline intact
Diluted share CAGR only 1.1%, SBC 7.1% of revenue but buybacks ran 126% of SBC, so per-share economics are not being eroded.
m45
Embedded enterprise moat
Database, ERP, and now OCI create switching costs; 70%+ gross margins historically and 30%+ op margins are evidence of pricing power despite recent mix shift.
Concerns 5
m85
FCF collapse from AI capex
FCF swung from +$11.8B (2024) to -$23.7B (2026) - a ~$35B reversal in two years driven by OCI capacity buildout. Quality of cash generation has materially deteriorated.
m80
Net debt of $124B vs $31.9B cash
Balance sheet is a constraint, not a cushion. Altman Z 1.76 is in distress territory and the company is dependent on capital markets to fund the buildout.
m55
Gross margin compression
GM% fell from 79.1% (2022) to 65.2% (2026) as lower-margin cloud infrastructure scales - structurally lower-quality revenue mix even if op margin held up via opex leverage.
m40
Customer/backlog concentration risk
Inferred: the AI capex spike implies a small number of very large compute contracts (e.g. hyperscaler-style deals) underwriting the buildout - concentration that the module data cannot quantify.
m25
No insider buying
16 sells vs 0 buys (~$61.6M sold) and recent tape is purely awards/exercises - no insider is leaning in with conviction during the capex bet.
Two Oracles in one set of financials. The legacy software business is genuinely high quality - real margin expansion, clean accruals, dilution under control, durable enterprise moat. But management has bet the balance sheet on AI infrastructure: net debt is now $124B, FCF is -$23.7B, gross margins are compressing, and Altman Z is in distress range. If the OCI contracts earn a real return, this is a brilliant pivot; if utilization or pricing disappoints, it is a quality-destroying capital misallocation at enormous scale. I cannot call it a fortress anymore - it is a Mixed-quality business with a high-quality core wrapped around an unproven, debt-funded capex bet.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • RPO/backlog composition and customer concentration in OCI - how much is one or two hyperscaler-class customers?
  • Capex guidance for FY27-28 and expected FCF inflection timing as OCI capacity comes online.
  • Debt maturity ladder, weighted coupon, and covenants given $124B net debt position.
  • Contractual minimum revenue from OCI capacity deals (Stargate-type) and pricing/duration terms.
  • Whether the OCF/NI 1.75x reflects deferred revenue tailwinds that may not repeat as growth mix shifts.
Valuation / Mispricing
-67
Rich
edge √Σ 36 · risk √Σ 103 · conf 7/10
Price $152 vs deserved ~$130-145 on a quality-adjusted, debt-aware basis - roughly 5-15% rich, no margin of safety. attractive below $125.00

Oracle trades at $152.38 for a $453B market cap, but the equity story now rests almost entirely on OCI/AI infrastructure earning a real return on a balance sheet carrying $124B net debt and -$23.7B FCF. A traditional DCF or FCF-yield anchor on the current cash profile is essentially negative; the bull fair value requires you to capitalize a future OCI run-rate that has not yet shown up in cash. That is the definition of 'high conviction required' - the e2e synthesis flagged the same. On legacy software alone (durable margins, sticky database, growing SaaS), a deserved value in the $115-135 range is defensible at ~22-25x quality earnings. Layering in a credit-for-OCI-success scenario gets you to roughly $140-160 deserved - i.e., today's price already pays for execution. Earnings quality is good, which I respect, but it does not offset that FCF has inverted and gross margin is compressing. Net: this is a fairly-to-richly priced stock where the upside case is already in the tape and the downside (capex doesn't earn its cost of capital, debt gets re-rated) is not discounted at all. I would want a clear discount to deserved before paying up.

Cheap signals 2
m30
Durable legacy cash engine
Database/ERP lock-in and clean accruals support a real ~$115-135 floor on the non-AI business alone, limiting deep downside absent an OCI blowup.
m20
Good earnings quality
Accrual quality and dilution control are clean (quality hint = good), so reported EPS is trustworthy - modest support for the deserved multiple.
Rich / priced-in 3
m70
Priced for OCI to work
At $453B cap with FCF at -$23.7B, the equity is implicitly capitalizing a future AI-cloud run-rate that has not yet materialized in cash. Heroic assumption already in the price.
m60
Balance sheet risk not discounted
$124B net debt and Altman Z in distress range deserve a higher discount rate / lower multiple, but ORCL trades at a premium software multiple as if the leverage were benign.
m45
Gross margin compression vs multiple
Infrastructure mix is compressing gross margins while the stock is valued on SaaS-like durability; mix-shift math argues for a lower deserved multiple than the legacy database business earned.
I think the price already pays for the AI-cloud bull case while ignoring that FCF is deeply negative and net debt is $124B. The legacy business is genuinely good, but I am not paying a premium multiple for a company that just bet the balance sheet on infrastructure returns that have not shown up in cash. I would want ORCL closer to $125 - call it a 15-20% discount - before the risk/reward gets interesting. Today it is fairly to modestly rich, and I would rather wait.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • OCI/cloud infrastructure revenue run-rate, gross margin, and backlog conversion cadence
  • Capex guide for FY26/27 and timeline to FCF crossover
  • Net debt trajectory and any incremental debt issuance or rating actions
  • RPO growth and disclosed contracted OCI commitments (quality of the backlog)
  • Segment margin disclosure separating legacy software from OCI
General Sentiment
+55
Tailwind
tail √Σ 98 · head √Σ 43 · conf 6/10

The macro tape is neutral-with-a-tilt-lower (VIX ~19, S&P -3% off highs, 10y at 4.4%), which on a 1.66-beta name would normally amplify pressure. But Oracle's narrative archetype is steady-compounder with durable, low-intensity story risk, so the high beta here overstates the real sensitivity - ORCL trades more like a defensive mega-cap software name than a high-beta cyclical, and the tape is not actively de-rating this cohort. Net macro pressure on this specific name is mild.

Tailwinds 3
m70
Analyst revisions running hot
16 revisions this month with average target ~$260 vs price $152 implies a ~70% upside consensus and active upward repricing - a strong, ongoing positive sentiment force specific to ORCL.
m55
AI-infrastructure narrative spillover
Oracle has quietly been adopted into the AI-infrastructure trade via OCI and large training deals; even at minimal narrative intensity, it gets pulled along when the AI story is alive, with low cult risk if it cools.
m40
Defensive narrative archetype
Steady-compounder framing with durable story means a wobbly tape (S&P off highs, VIX 19) does not aggressively punish this name the way it would a story stock - sentiment floor is sturdy.
Headwinds 2
m35
Rates and stretched market PE
10y at 4.41% and a tired broad-market tape weigh on long-duration software multiples generally; ORCL's nominal 1.66 beta means it will not be immune in a sharper risk-off leg.
m25
Legacy-incumbent bear framing lingers
The 'tethered to on-prem, losing to AWS/Azure, aging Ellison' counter-narrative caps cult-style upside and keeps a subset of the analyst panel at Hold/Sell (30 of 86).
Net pressure leans positive. The dominant force is the live upward analyst revision cycle tied to an AI-infrastructure read-through, on a name whose durable steady-compounder narrative insulates it from the soft tape. The headline 1.66 beta overstates real macro sensitivity here - this is not a story stock that de-rates on a VIX-19 wobble. I read it as a Tailwind, not Strong Tailwind, because the narrative intensity is minimal (so there is no euphoria pushing it) and rates remain a quiet drag on all long-duration software.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Whether AI-infra capex narrative cracks (would remove the quiet tailwind)
  • Next OCI growth print and RPO disclosure - the proof point analysts are revising on
  • 10y yield breaking above 4.6% (would pressure software multiples broadly)
  • Any softening in target revisions trend (currently 16/mo at $260 avg)
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
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Three lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), and General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 23, 2026 3:05:39 am

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
Average FCF is negative — DCF not applicable
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
Average FCF is negative
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 23, 2026 3:03am (4d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Revenue $42.4B $50.0B $53.0B $57.4B $67.4B
Cost of Revenue $8.9B $13.6B $15.1B $16.9B $23.4B
Gross Profit $33.6B $36.4B $37.8B $40.5B $43.9B
Operating Expenses $22.6B $23.3B $22.5B $22.8B $23.1B
Operating Income $10.9B $13.1B $15.4B $17.7B $20.8B
Net Income $6.7B $8.5B $10.5B $12.4B $17.1B
EBITDA $13.5B $18.7B $21.4B $23.9B $32.1B
EPS $2.49 $3.15 $3.81 $4.46 $5.94
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 23, 2026 3:00am (4d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Cash & Equivalents $21.4B $9.8B $10.5B $10.8B $31.3B
Total Current Assets $31.6B $21.0B $22.6B $24.6B $46.6B
Total Assets $109.3B $134.4B $141.0B $168.4B $261.8B
Current Liabilities $19.5B $23.1B $31.5B $32.6B $41.8B
Long-Term Debt $72.1B $86.4B $76.3B $85.3B $149.0B
Total Liabilities $115.1B $132.8B $131.7B $147.4B $218.7B
Total Equity -$6.2B $1.1B $8.7B $20.5B $42.5B
Retained Earnings -$31.3B -$27.6B -$22.6B -$15.5B -$4.3B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 22, 2026 3:04am (5d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Operating Cash Flow $9.5B $17.2B $18.7B $20.8B $32.0B
Capital Expenditure -$4.5B -$8.7B -$6.9B -$21.2B -$55.7B
Free Cash Flow $5.0B $8.5B $11.8B -$394.0M -$23.7B
Acquisitions (net) -$148.0M -$27.7B -$63.0M $0 $0
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks -$17.3B -$2.5B -$3.2B -$1.5B -$206.0M
Net Change in Cash -$8.7B -$11.6B $689.0M $332.0M $20.5B
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 4:31am (2h ago)
Metric 2028 2029 2030 2031
Revenue $130.0B
$94.0B – $142.1B
$179.0B
$178.2B – $179.8B
$218.5B
$176.6B – $231.9B
$257.1B
$207.9B – $272.9B
EBITDA $51.8B
$37.5B – $56.6B
$71.3B
$71.0B – $71.6B
$87.0B
$70.4B – $92.4B
$102.4B
$82.8B – $108.7B
Net Income $28.1B
$24.6B – $35.6B
$41.3B
$30.8B – $52.9B
$57.7B
$43.3B – $62.3B
$69.8B
$52.4B – $75.4B
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 23, 2026 3:03am (4d ago)
Metric 2023 2024 2025 2026
Revenue Growth +17.7% +6.0% +8.4% +17.4%
Gross Profit Growth +8.4% +3.9% +7.0% +8.5%
Operating Income Growth +19.8% +17.3% +15.1% +17.5%
Net Income Growth +26.6% +23.1% +18.9% +37.3%
EBITDA Growth +38.5% +14.2% +11.8% +34.4%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 3:26am (3h ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-06-24 HENLEY JEFFREY M-Exempt 400,000.00 $40.93 $16.4M
2026-06-24 HENLEY JEFFREY S-Sale 74,969.00 $156.06 $11.7M
2026-06-24 HENLEY JEFFREY S-Sale 78,559.00 $157.02 $12.3M
2026-06-24 HENLEY JEFFREY S-Sale 45,872.00 $157.89 $7.2M
2026-06-24 HENLEY JEFFREY S-Sale 16,802.00 $159.07 $2.7M
2026-06-24 HENLEY JEFFREY S-Sale 62,582.00 $160.08 $10.0M
2026-06-24 HENLEY JEFFREY S-Sale 48,353.00 $160.86 $7.8M
2026-06-24 HENLEY JEFFREY S-Sale 16,809.00 $162.18 $2.7M
2026-06-24 HENLEY JEFFREY S-Sale 15,122.00 $163.00 $2.5M
2026-06-24 HENLEY JEFFREY S-Sale 26,603.00 $164.00 $4.4M
2026-06-24 HENLEY JEFFREY S-Sale 13,529.00 $164.91 $2.2M
2026-06-24 HENLEY JEFFREY S-Sale 800.00 $165.57 $132,456
2026-06-24 HENLEY JEFFREY M-Exempt 400,000.00 $40.93 $16.4M
2026-05-31 RUSCKOWSKI STEPHEN H A-Award 1,550.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-31 MOORMAN CHARLES W M-Exempt 2,114.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-31 MOORMAN CHARLES W A-Award 1,550.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-31 MOORMAN CHARLES W M-Exempt 2,114.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-31 Mihaljevic Tomislav A-Award 1,550.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-31 Fairhead Rona Alison M-Exempt 2,114.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-31 Fairhead Rona Alison F-InKind 58.00 $225.78 $13,095
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 22, 2026 6:26pm (4d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-07-10 $0.50 2026-06-10 2026-07-10 2026-07-24
2026-04-09 $0.50 2026-03-10 2026-04-09 2026-04-24
2026-01-09 $0.50 2025-12-10 2026-01-09 2026-01-23
2025-10-09 $0.50 2025-09-09 2025-10-09 2025-10-23
2025-07-10 $0.50 2025-06-11 2025-07-10 2025-07-24
2025-04-10 $0.50 2025-03-10 2025-04-10 2025-04-23
2025-01-10 $0.40 2024-12-09 2025-01-10 2025-01-23
2024-10-10 $0.40 2024-09-09 2024-10-10 2024-10-24
2024-07-11 $0.40 2024-06-11 2024-07-11 2024-07-25
2024-04-09 $0.40 2024-03-11 2024-04-10 2024-04-24
2024-01-10 $0.40 2023-12-11 2024-01-11 2024-01-25
2023-10-11 $0.40 2023-09-11 2023-10-12 2023-10-26
2023-07-11 $0.40 2023-06-12 2023-07-12 2023-07-26
2023-04-10 $0.40 2023-03-09 2023-04-11 2023-04-24
2023-01-09 $0.32 2022-12-12 2023-01-10 2023-01-24
2022-10-11 $0.32 2022-09-12 2022-10-12 2022-10-25
2022-07-11 $0.32 2022-06-13 2022-07-12 2022-07-26
2022-04-07 $0.32 2022-03-10 2022-04-08 2022-04-21
2022-01-06 $0.32 2021-12-09 2022-01-07 2022-01-19
2021-10-08 $0.32 2021-09-13 2021-10-12 2021-10-26
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for ORCL — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-23 03:06:18
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict Overvalued at $175 — fair value $135–145 absent proof OCI capex earns hyperscaler-like ROIC; the FCF burn and 8% ROIC contradict the "mature ear

Looking at the raw quarterly cadence first: revenue went $13.31B → $14.06B → $14.13B → $15.90B → $14.93B → $16.06B → $17.19B → $19.18B. That's genuine acceleration — the most recent YoY is 17.4% and sequential Q4 growth of 11.6% is the strongest in years. Annual revenue compounded from $42.4B (FY22) to $67.4B (FY26), a 12.2% CAGR, and operating income nearly doubled from $10.9B to $20.8B over the same window. So the top-line and operating leverage story is real, not narrative. But then look at the cash flow line that no one is emphasizing enough: capex of **$55.66B** against operating cash flow of $31.98B produced **negative $23.7B of free cash flow**. Capex went from ~$7B to ~$56B in two years. Oracle is not a "mature earner" by any reasonable definition right now — it's a capital-intensive infrastructure buildout funded by debt, masquerading as a software company at 10.6x sales and 16.8x book.

The prior models are internally contradictory and I think the classification engine is simply wrong. "Mature Earner" with 0.83 confidence is indefensible when FCF flipped from strongly positive to -$24B and capex is 83% of revenue growth. The Market Forces module calls it a "value trap" while the Narrative layer calls it a "durable steady-compounder" and Synthesis says "high conviction required" — these can't all be right. Market Forces is closest to the contrarian read but overstates the case: revenue acceleration isn't "acquisition-driven" anymore (Cerner closed in 2022; the 17% YoY in the latest quarter is organic OCI/RPO-driven). The Pre-Flight thesis that the market is pricing Oracle as a "failed cloud pivot" is also wrong — at 29.5x TTM P/E and ~7.5x P/S the market is pricing Oracle as a *winning* AI-infrastructure platform, not a failed one. Pre-2023 Oracle traded at 15–18x earnings; the current multiple bakes in the OCI/RPO backlog story explicitly.

The contrarian case I'd actually press: hyperscaler capex doesn't earn software-like ROIC. AWS, Azure, and GCP run cloud infra at 30-35% operating margins after years of scale; Oracle is committing $55B/year against a $67B revenue base, and the marginal returns on GPU-stuffed data centers serving a single customer concentration (the OpenAI/Stargate-type deals) are unproven. ROIC at 8.0% is already well below cost of capital for a company levering up this aggressively, and the Q2 (Nov 2025) net income spike to $6.14B at 38.2% margin is almost certainly a one-time tax or investment gain — strip that and the earnings CAGR looks more like 15%, not 27.8%. The 22% margin in Q4 is normal-course; the synthesis models appear to be anchoring on the inflated TTM earnings figure. Insider data is uninformative (all routine awards/exemptions, no open-market buying or selling of size disclosed).

I dissent from the synthesis "High Conviction Required" framing — that's a non-verdict. The honest read: Oracle has genuine revenue acceleration and a real RPO backlog, but it's being valued as if the cloud capex will earn 25%+ incremental margins when the evidence suggests sub-cost-of-capital returns on the marginal dollar. At $175 and ~$503B market cap, you're paying 7.5x sales for a business burning $24B of FCF with deteriorating ROIC. Fair value on a normalized basis — assume 13% revenue growth, margins stabilize at 30% operating, capex eventually normalizes to $25–30B (still elevated) — gets me to roughly $130–145 on a DCF with a 9% discount rate. The bull case ($210+) requires OCI to hit AWS-like scale economics, which is a 3–5 year proof, not a current fact. I'd be a buyer in the $130s, a holder in the $150s, and a fader at $175+. The risk is asymmetric to the downside if even one quarter of RPO conversion disappoints, because the multiple has no cushion.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-23 03:06:26
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I agree with Opus — overvalued at $175, seeing fair value near $140. The high CapEx and low ROIC challenge the cloud pivot narrative, warranting caution.

Oracle's recent financials paint a picture of a company undergoing significant transformation, reflected in its aggressive capital expenditure and robust revenue growth. The company increased its revenues from $42.44 billion in 2022 to $67.36 billion in 2026, indicating a healthy CAGR of 12.2%. This trajectory is underscored by quarterly revenue growth, which accelerated from $13.31 billion in August 2024 to $19.18 billion by May 2026. However, the standout figure is the massive increase in capital expenditures, which ballooned from $6.87 billion to a staggering $55.66 billion over the same period. This heavy investment has resulted in a free cash flow deficit of $23.69 billion, raising questions about the sustainability and returns of such outlays. The PE ratio of 29.5 suggests that the market is optimistic about Oracle's future, potentially banking on its cloud ambitions.

I align with Claude Opus on several fronts. Opus rightly identifies the revenue growth as genuine, not acquisition-driven, which supports Oracle's narrative of organic expansion. I also concur with the skepticism around the "Mature Earner" classification given the negative free cash flow, which contradicts the notion of a stable, cash-generating entity. Furthermore, the doubts about Oracle's ability to achieve hyperscaler-like returns on its cloud infrastructure investments resonate with me, considering the ROIC stands at 8%, below the typical cost of capital for a tech company.

However, I diverge from Opus on the interpretation of market sentiment. While Opus argues that the market is pricing Oracle as a successful cloud infrastructure player, I contend that the existing valuation partly reflects skepticism about Oracle's ability to compete with established players like AWS and Azure. The current multiples, particularly the high PE and PS ratios, suggest some optimism, possibly due to Oracle's recent revenue acceleration. Still, the market may also be cautious, reflected in the 49% stock price decline from its peak, hinting at underlying concerns about execution risks.

A careful skeptic might argue that both Opus and I are overlooking Oracle's potential to innovate and capture a niche in AI infrastructure, which could justify its aggressive CapEx and current valuation. They might point to Oracle's strategic positioning in healthcare cloud services via the Cerner acquisition as a long-term growth driver that could differentiate it from competitors and support a higher valuation multiple.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.352 · d1100787 · 2026-06-26 11:39:30