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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Rockwell Automation, Inc. (ROK) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-10-07): Designation Low · Gem Score -26 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 48 · Value -75 · Sentiment -48 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $98.95 vs $449.37 at analysis
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Rockwell Automation, Inc.
ROK NYSERockwell Automation, Inc. is a leading industrial automation and digital transformation company headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The company provides hardware, software, and services that help manufacturers design, operate, and optimize automated production systems across sectors such as automotive, food and beverage, life sciences, energy, and heavy industries. Its intelligent devices portfolio includes drives, motors, sensors, relays, safety components, and actuators that operate at the factory floor level. Rockwell Automation’s software and control offerings span programmable automation controllers, industrial computers, human-machine interface software, visualization tools, and simulation platforms that enable integrated control and information systems. Through its lifecycle services segment, the company delivers digital consulting, engineered-to-order solutions, remote monitoring, cybersecurity services, and asset and plant maintenance and optimization support. Rockwell Automation plays a central role in enabling smart manufacturing and industrial productivity by connecting devices, control platforms, and data-driven software into unified automation and information architectures.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 7.67
Total Equity: $3.71B
Shares: 113,100,000
Total Debt: $2.62B
Cash: $468.00M
EBITDA: $2.03B
Total Debt: $2.62B
Cash: $468.00M
Revenue: $8.34B
Revenue: $8.34B
Revenue: $8.34B
Total Equity: $3.71B
Tax Rate: 18.3%
Equity: $3.71B
Total Debt: $2.62B
Cash: $468.00M
Current Liabilities: $3.45B
Long-Term Debt: $2.61B
Total Debt: $2.62B
Total Equity: $3.71B
Shares: 113,100,000
Shares: 113,100,000
CapEx: $0.00
Shares: 113,100,000
Stock Price: $449.37
Net Income: $869.00M
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 17, 2026 12:42am (51d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.0B | $7.8B | $9.1B | $8.3B | $8.3B |
| Cost of Revenue | $4.1B | $4.7B | $5.3B | $5.1B | $4.3B |
| Gross Profit | $2.9B | $3.1B | $3.7B | $3.2B | $4.0B |
| Operating Expenses | $2.1B | $2.2B | $1.8B | $1.6B | $2.3B |
| Operating Income | $795.2M | $894.4M | $1.9B | $1.6B | $1.7B |
| Net Income | $1.4B | $932.2M | $1.4B | $952.5M | $869.0M |
| EBITDA | $985.0M | $1.1B | $2.2B | $1.9B | $2.0B |
| EPS | $11.69 | $8.02 | $12.03 | $8.32 | $7.69 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $11.58 | $7.97 | $11.95 | $8.28 | $7.67 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 17, 2026 12:21am (51d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $662.2M | $490.7M | $1.1B | $471.0M | $468.0M |
| Total Current Assets | $3.1B | $3.6B | $4.9B | $3.9B | $3.9B |
| Total Assets | $10.7B | $10.8B | $11.3B | $11.2B | $11.2B |
| Current Liabilities | $3.0B | $3.6B | $3.4B | $3.6B | $3.4B |
| Long-Term Debt | $3.5B | — | — | $2.6B | $2.6B |
| Total Liabilities | $8.0B | $7.7B | $7.6B | $7.6B | $7.5B |
| Total Equity | $2.7B | $3.0B | $3.7B | $3.7B | $3.7B |
| Retained Earnings | $8.0B | $8.4B | $9.3B | $9.6B | $5.4B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 17, 2026 12:42am (51d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $1.3B | $823.1M | $1.4B | $863.8M | $1.5B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$120.3M | -$141.1M | -$160.5M | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.1B | $682.0M | $1.2B | — | — |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$2.5B | -$16.6M | -$168.4M | -$749.2M | $0 |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | $1.5B | $0 | -$599.8M | $0 | -$289.0M |
| Dividends Paid | -$497.1M | -$519.4M | -$542.4M | -$571.0M | -$591.0M |
| Stock Buybacks | -$299.7M | -$301.3M | -$311.5M | -$594.9M | -$425.0M |
| Net Change in Cash | -$51.0M | -$171.5M | $572.5M | -$609.4M | -$3.0M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 17, 2026 12:42am (51d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +10.9% | +16.7% | -8.8% | +0.9% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +7.1% | +19.8% | -14.1% | +25.8% |
| Operating Income Growth | +12.5% | +115.7% | -17.3% | +6.8% |
| Net Income Growth | -31.4% | +48.8% | -31.3% | -8.8% |
| EBITDA Growth | +15.1% | +92.3% | -12.3% | +6.0% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 12, 2026 10:16am (56d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | $1.38 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-23 | $1.38 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-17 | $1.38 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-18 | $1.31 | — | — | — |
| 2025-05-19 | $1.31 | — | — | — |
| 2025-02-18 | $1.31 | — | — | — |
| 2024-11-18 | $1.31 | — | — | — |
| 2024-08-12 | $1.25 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-10 | $1.25 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-16 | $1.25 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-10 | $1.25 | — | — | — |
| 2023-08-11 | $1.18 | — | — | — |
| 2023-05-12 | $1.18 | — | — | — |
| 2023-02-17 | $1.18 | — | — | — |
| 2022-11-10 | $1.18 | — | — | — |
| 2022-08-12 | $1.12 | — | — | — |
| 2022-05-13 | $1.12 | — | — | — |
| 2022-02-11 | $1.12 | — | — | — |
| 2021-11-12 | $1.12 | — | — | — |
| 2021-08-13 | $1.07 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Computed 2026-10-01 02:02A +1σ run of quarters pays -73%; a −1σ run costs 86%. Ratio -0.9:1 (μ 5.9%, σ 10.1% , 16 pairs).
Older method (repeat-worst-quarter): -1.0 : 1
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($449.37) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +4% | 17.3% | $97.32 | -78% |
| Base — stabilizes | +3% | 15.0% | $82.37 | -82% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +1% | 12.8% | $68.64 | -85% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | +8% | 14.7% | $94.26 | -79% |
| Upside — a +1σ run of quarters (v2) | +16% | 14.7% | $120.06 | -73% |
| Stress — a −1σ run of quarters (v2) | -4% | 14.7% | $64.45 | -86% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-08-17 16:19The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.
Claude Reading
The raw quarterly trajectory tells a more constructive story than the models credit. Sequential revenue has climbed four straight quarters — $1.88B → $2.00B → $2.14B → $2.24B → $2.31B — and net margin has expanded from 9.8% to 17.6% over that same span. The trailing four quarters annualize to roughly $8.98B revenue and ~$1.40B net income, versus fiscal 2025's $8.34B/$869M. That's a run-rate earnings recovery of ~60% from the trough, not the "deteriorating value trap" the Market Forces model describes. The 5-year revenue CAGR of -4% is a backward-looking artifact of the FY2023 $9.06B peak; the forward inflection is real and visible in the last three prints. This is a cyclical industrial coming off a destock trough, and the models leaning hard on TTM P/E of 58x are anchoring on stale earnings.
That said, the synthesis verdict of "overvalued" is directionally correct — just overstated. Recompute on run-rate: $50B market cap on ~$1.4B run-rate NI is ~36x forward, on ~$9B revenue is 5.6x P/S. That's still rich for a mid-single-digit grower, but nowhere near the $155 "signal-adjusted fair value" the composite spits out. A $155 target implies ROK trades at ~11x run-rate earnings — Rockwell has not traded there in a decade absent GFC-style dislocation. Historical fair range for ROK at mid-cycle is 22-28x forward, which puts fair value in the $310-$395 zone on $1.4B run-rate NI, or higher if the Q3 FY26 17.6% margin proves sustainable rather than a working-capital/tax quirk (the Q4 FY25 collapse to 6% margin suggests these prints are noisy). The narrative-economics layer nails the setup: the $449 price requires either sustained margin expansion above historical peak (~20% operating) or a software re-rating that hasn't shown up in disclosed segment mix.
The contrarian pushback to my own read: the FY25 annual gross margin of 48.1% versus FY24's 38.6% on similar revenue is suspiciously large and worth interrogating — is that a reclassification, a one-timer, or genuine mix shift? If genuine, ROK is further along the software transition than bears claim and 36x forward is defensible. If it's an accounting artifact, the earnings recovery is thinner than the quarterly trajectory suggests. Second, debt-to-equity of 0.70 and current ratio of 1.14 aren't alarming but they do constrain buyback-driven EPS support if the cycle rolls over again. Third, the insider data is essentially useless — two tiny transactions in July 2026 tells us nothing. The Thesis Evaluation's -19 score feels roughly right in magnitude but its "revenue directly contradicts" framing ignores that the contradiction resolved two quarters ago.
I partially dissent from the synthesis. The stock is overvalued, but the $155 fair value is a DCF artifact that over-penalizes a company mid-recovery with visible sequential acceleration and margin expansion. My fair value range is $320-$380, implying 15-30% downside from $449 rather than the model's -65%. This is a "wait or trim" situation, not a "short the value trap" setup. The Market Forces "deteriorating" call will look wrong if the next two prints confirm the margin trajectory; conversely, if Q4 FY26 reverts to the 6-12% margin band that dominated the prior two years, the bear case snaps back into force. The asymmetry doesn't favor buyers at $449 — you're paying peak-multiple for a cyclical whose peak-earnings sustainability is unproven — but the models calling for a two-thirds haircut are as narrative-driven in their bearishness as the market is in its bullishness.
GPT Reading
At $449, Rockwell is being valued like a high-quality compounder with a clear runway, but the actual income statement still looks like a cyclical industrial clawing out of a soft patch rather than a software-like growth asset. Revenue over the last four reported quarters sums to about $8.98B, up versus the prior four-quarter base of roughly $8.06B, so the business is recovering, but that is only about 11% trailing growth off a depressed level and still does not erase the fact that annual revenue was $9.06B in 2023, fell to $8.26B in 2024, and only reached $8.34B in 2025. That is not the profile that usually supports 6.1x sales, 25.7x EV/EBITDA, and 58.6x earnings. What stands out most is that earnings have improved sharply quarter to quarter in 2026 — net income moved from $305M to $350M to $408M over the last three quarters, with net margin rising from 14.5% to 15.6% to 17.6% — but the market is already capitalizing that recovery as if it is both durable and just the beginning of a much steeper multi-year margin expansion.
The key contradiction is between quality and valuation, not between quality and survival. This is a good business. Gross margin in fiscal 2025 was 48.1%, operating margin 20.4%, ROIC 23.7%, and operating cash flow $1.54B on $8.34B of revenue. Debt is manageable at $2.62B against $3.71B of equity, even if cash of $468M is not especially large. Those are the numbers of a solid franchise, and the rebound in quarterly margins suggests the trough may already be behind it. But paying 13.7x book and nearly 60x annual earnings for a company whose annual net income was $869M in 2025 versus $952.5M in 2024 and $1.39B in 2023 is a leap. Even if I annualize the most recent quarter’s $408M net income, I get about $1.63B of run-rate earnings; that would put the stock closer to 31x that more optimistic number, still rich for a company with low-single-digit to low-teens top-line growth and obvious cyclicality.
The market seems to be giving Rockwell credit for three things at once: a clean manufacturing capex rebound, software-and-services mix improvement, and sustained margin recovery. Maybe one or two of those happen, but at this price the company needs almost all of them. Annual operating income was $1.93B in 2023, then $1.60B in 2024, then $1.70B in 2025; that looks like a business oscillating with demand, not one that has already structurally re-rated into a platform model. The low point in 2025’s September quarter is especially revealing: revenue was actually the highest of the eight quarters shown at $2.32B, yet net income was only $138M, a 6.0% margin. That tells you this business can still produce ugly earnings outcomes even when revenue looks decent, which is exactly why a premium multiple should be earned cautiously. My read is straightforward: Rockwell deserves a quality premium to average industrials, but not a valuation that implies a near-frictionless transition to a higher-growth, higher-multiple model. Fair value looks materially below the current price; even a generous 24-28x normalized earnings framework points far closer to the low $300s than to $449.
The strongest pushback is that the numbers may be understating an inflection already underway. The latest four quarters show sequential revenue of $1.88B, $2.00B, $2.14B, $2.32B, then $2.11B, $2.24B, $2.31B depending on fiscal seasonality, and margins have clearly rebuilt in 2026. If the business can hold quarterly net income around $350M-$400M while returning to annual revenue above the 2023 peak, then 2025 was just a temporary inventory-and-capex air pocket. On that view, the 23%-plus ROE and ROIC metrics, the 48% gross margin, and strong operating cash generation justify a persistent scarcity premium because there are not many scaled industrial automation assets with this installed base and customer stickiness. I take that argument seriously. I just weigh it less heavily because the current valuation does not merely anticipate normalization; it anticipates sustained outperformance after normalization. That is a much harder hurdle.
What would change my mind is evidence that the recovery is broad enough to support the premium. Specifically, I would want to see annual revenue clearly exceed the old $9.06B high, not just drift around $8.3B-$9.0B, while maintaining operating margin above 20% and net margin consistently in the mid-to-high teens rather than bouncing around. If the next few quarters show revenue holding above $2.3B with net income staying in the $375M-$425M range, then the earnings power is stronger than the 2024-2025 trough suggested and a higher valuation floor is warranted. Short of that, the stock looks priced for a best-case industrial recovery plus software halo that the reported data still does not fully prove.
Grok Reading
The numbers describe a classic late-cycle industrial that has already lost its peak earnings power and is only now clawing back, yet the stock trades as if the transformation is already complete. Annual revenue peaked at $9.06B in fiscal 2023, slipped to $8.26B in 2024, and barely recovered to $8.34B in 2025—a −4% revenue CAGR that sits awkwardly beside a 58.6× trailing P/E, 6.1× sales, and 25.7× EV/EBITDA. Net income tells the same story more sharply: $1.39B in 2023, $953M in 2024, $869M in 2025, an earnings CAGR of roughly −21%. Against that backdrop the $449 price and $50B enterprise imply the market has fully underwritten a multi-year V-recovery plus a durable software re-rating. The balance sheet does not give management unlimited room to buy that future either: $2.62B of debt against only $468M cash, a current ratio of 1.14, and a 68% payout ratio leave limited dry powder if the cycle stalls again.
What does stand out positively—and what the pure DCF at ~$156 underweights—is the unmistakable margin inflection in the last several quarters. Net margin compressed to 6% in the September 2025 quarter, then marched steadily higher: 14.5%, 15.6%, and 17.6% by June 2026, with absolute net income rising from $305M to $350M to $408M. Gross margin for the full 2025 year jumped to 48.1% from roughly 39% the prior year, and operating margin reached 20.4%. That is not accounting noise; it is consistent with a richer software-and-services mix inside the “connected enterprise” story. ROE and ROIC both sit near 23–24%, and operating cash flow of $1.54B confirms the earnings are real cash. Sequential revenue has also stabilized and begun to grind higher ($1.88B → $2.00B → $2.14B → $2.32B → $2.11B → $2.24B → $2.31B). So the trough appears to be behind the company, and the quality of the earnings stream is improving even while top-line growth remains anemic.
Still, quality improvement is not the same as the growth acceleration required to justify today’s multiple. Annualizing the latest quarter’s $408M net income produces a ~$1.6B run-rate; even on that optimistic base the stock is still ~31× forward earnings and more than 5× sales for a business whose recent revenue growth is under 1% year-over-year. The valuation synthesis fair value near $156–$179 is directionally correct: the gap to $449 is almost pure narrative premium—the bet that Rockwell becomes a platform monopoly with 40%+ recurring mix and step-function TAM expansion from reshoring and AI-enabled automation. Nothing in the reported revenue line yet validates that step-function. The 0.9% recent revenue growth and decelerating quarterly trend directly contradict the explosive digital-transformation pricing embedded in the 58× multiple.
The strongest case against an overvalued verdict is precisely that margin and cash-flow trajectory. A skeptic of the bear case would note that fiscal 2025 already delivered a 900-basis-point gross-margin expansion and that the last three quarters have produced mid-teens net margins the company has not sustained in years. If that mix shift continues and revenue re-accelerates even into the mid-single digits as industrial CapEx normalizes, the forward multiple compresses rapidly through the earnings denominator rather than through a price collapse. High returns on capital and sticky installed base in auto, pharma, and food give the bull case real industrial logic; the market is simply paying for the entire optionality today. I weigh the recent operational progress as genuine but insufficient to close a nearly 3× gap to cash-flow value when revenue itself has still not reclaimed the 2023 peak and the balance sheet carries meaningful leverage into a still-uncertain CapEx cycle.
I would flip toward neutral or undervalued only if the next two reported quarters show organic revenue growth sustainably above 8% year-over-year while net margins hold above 15%, or if management discloses recurring software/subscription revenue crossing roughly 30% of the mix with clear net retention metrics. A material reduction in net debt or a forward P/E compressing below 25× through earnings delivery (rather than multiple contraction alone) would also force a reassessment. Until then the stock remains a high-quality industrial priced for perfection it has not yet earned.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Rockwell shows the hallmarks of a high-quality mature industrial: gross margin expanded to 48.1% in 2025 from ~40% earlier, operating margin sits at ~20% (up from ~11% pre-2023), and FCF reached $1.54B on $8.34B revenue (~18% FCF margin). Earnings quality is clean — OCF/NI of 1.1x, accruals -0.6% of assets, Beneish M of -2.79, and Altman Z of 5.97 all point to real, cash-backed earnings with no manipulation flags. Capital discipline is a genuine strength: diluted shares fell from 117.1M to 113.1M (a -0.9% CAGR), SBC is a modest ~1% of revenue, and buyback/SBC of 491.8% means the company is a meaningful net repurchaser. The concerns are directional rather than structural. Revenue growth has stalled — after peaking at $9.06B in 2023, sales dropped to $8.26B in 2024 and only edged up to $8.34B in 2025 — and net income has actually declined for two straight years (from $1.39B in 2023 to $869M in 2025) despite margin expansion, suggesting mix/one-time items are flattering GM% while volume/orders soften. This is consistent with a late-cycle automation slowdown, not a broken business. Insider activity is neutral/non-signal (a single small option-exercise-and-sell). Altman Z of 5.97 indicates a solid balance sheet, though liquidity module was unavailable so leverage specifics are unverified here.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Whether the 2025 gross margin jump to 48.1% reflects durable mix/pricing or a one-time reclassification or gain
- Net debt, revolver capacity, and maturity schedule (liquidity module was unavailable)
- Order book / book-to-bill trend to confirm the revenue softness is cyclical, not share-loss
- Segment detail on Intelligent Devices vs Software & Control vs Lifecycle Services to locate the weakness
- Any restructuring charges or asset sales inflating 2025 operating margin
The e2e synthesis pins composite fair value at $178.61 and signal-adjusted at $155.70 against a $449.37 price - implying the market is paying roughly 2.5x deserved value. DCF ($110) and EPV ($103) both anchor well below price; only the anchored-PE method ($392) gets close, and even that sits ~13% under spot. When three of three methods say rich and the most generous one still says modestly rich, the honest read is that ROK is expensively priced. The $50B market cap capitalizes a business whose revenue has been flat-to-down since 2023 and whose net income has slid two years running - fine for a quality compounder at a fair price, but not at ~30x on depressed earnings. What is priced in: a durable re-acceleration into a digital-factory upgrade cycle with margin expansion. What is not priced in: continued cyclical softness, share loss to lower-cost automation vendors, or a multi-year revenue plateau. Quality is real (clean earnings, buybacks, sticky installed base) and lifts the deserved multiple - but not to 2.5x DCF. Margin of safety is negative here.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Order book and book-to-bill trend in latest 10-Q to test cyclical inflection
- Software/ARR mix and growth rate - does it justify a software-like multiple
- FY guidance for revenue and segment margins
- Any one-time restructuring charges depressing current EPS that could normalize higher
The macro tape is mildly supportive - VIX 14, S&P near highs, risk-on regime - and with a 1.54 beta ROK should mechanically catch a bid in that environment. But stock-specific sentiment is working against it: the platform-monopoly narrative is intact but visibly fraying, evidenced by a 7.4% drop on Aug 4 into a beat-and-raise print. That is a textbook 'narrative exhaustion' tell - when good news is sold, the marginal buyer is gone and the story is doing the heavy lifting alone at ~3x DCF fair value.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Whether the next earnings print is again sold on strong numbers - would confirm narrative exhaustion
- Any sell-side downgrade citing valuation - would accelerate the de-rate
- AI-capex or reshoring headlines that could re-ignite the platform-monopoly story
- Sector rotation into defensives that would strip the beta tailwind
The world's automation demand is real but currently rate-gated. Manufacturers still want fewer people per line, more traceability in pharma and food, and supply chains nearer to end markets — all structurally pro-Rockwell. But with the 10y near 4.6% and a flat curve, the capex committee defers, and the deferral shows up first in exactly Rockwell's discrete-automation order book. Meanwhile the value inside a factory is drifting from the controller box toward the software and data layer, where Rockwell has assets but faces Siemens' scale and hyperscaler-adjacent entrants, and toward lower-cost device suppliers at the commodity end. The honest read: a mature, essential franchise inside a flat category, with a genuine multi-year reshoring pipeline that arrives on the far side of the rate cycle rather than inside the next two prints.
When we made this prediction on Aug 17, 2026, ROK was $449.37. We expect it to be $395.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $300.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 17, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.
Post-Report Due Diligence NOTES
Evidence for a closer look, not a verdict — no score or designation on this page has been changed by it. Items marked material are ones where a conclusion above moves to the other side of the price.
trailing_eps
flips up 25%
adjusted_pe
flips up 25%