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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Rollins, Inc. (ROL) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score -6 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 74 · Value -71 · Sentiment 16 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $22.48 vs $37.97 at analysis
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
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Rollins, Inc.
ROL NYSERollins, Inc. is a consumer and commercial services company specializing in pest and wildlife control. Headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia and founded in 1964, the company operates a global network of more than 60 brands, including well-known names such as Orkin, Critter Control, HomeTeam Pest Defense, and Saela Pest Control. Rollins focuses on providing recurring pest management services, termite protection, mosquito control, fumigation, and wildlife removal to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. Its client base spans homeowners, homebuilders, property managers, and businesses in sectors such as foodservice, hospitality, healthcare, retail, logistics, and education. The company serves over two million customers across approximately 70 countries through company-owned branches, franchises, joint ventures, and affiliates, with a particular concentration in North America. In the broader market, Rollins plays a significant role as one of the largest global pest control providers, offering essential services that support public health, food safety, and property protection.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 1.09
Total Equity: $1.37B
Shares: 484,147,000
Total Debt: $609.83M
Cash: $100.00M
EBITDA: $850.81M
Total Debt: $609.83M
Cash: $100.00M
Revenue: $3.76B
Revenue: $3.76B
Revenue: $3.76B
Total Equity: $1.37B
Tax Rate: 24.9%
Equity: $1.37B
Total Debt: $609.83M
Cash: $100.00M
Current Liabilities: $785.53M
Long-Term Debt: $486.15M
Total Debt: $609.83M
Total Equity: $1.37B
Shares: 484,147,000
Shares: 484,147,000
CapEx: -$28.09M
Shares: 484,147,000
Stock Price: $37.97
Net Income: $526.71M
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:07pm (21d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.4B | $2.7B | $3.1B | $3.4B | $3.8B |
| Cost of Revenue | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.8B |
| Gross Profit | $1.3B | $1.4B | $1.6B | $1.8B | $2.0B |
| Operating Expenses | $821.7M | $894.0M | $1.0B | $1.1B | $1.3B |
| Operating Income | $440.0M | $493.4M | $583.2M | $657.2M | $726.1M |
| Net Income | $350.7M | $368.6M | $435.0M | $466.4M | $526.7M |
| EBITDA | $534.2M | $584.7M | $683.0M | $770.4M | $850.8M |
| EPS | $0.71 | $0.75 | $0.89 | $0.96 | $1.09 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.71 | $0.75 | $0.89 | $0.96 | $1.09 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 1:44pm (21d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $105.3M | $95.3M | $103.8M | $89.6M | $100.0M |
| Total Current Assets | $352.4M | $348.6M | $406.6M | $442.6M | $472.7M |
| Total Assets | $2.0B | $2.1B | $2.6B | $2.8B | $3.1B |
| Current Liabilities | $491.2M | $493.8M | $576.7M | $645.2M | $785.5M |
| Long-Term Debt | — | — | — | $395.3M | $486.1M |
| Total Liabilities | $898.8M | $854.8M | $1.4B | $1.5B | $1.8B |
| Total Equity | $1.1B | $1.3B | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.4B |
| Retained Earnings | $500.9M | $687.1M | $566.4M | $734.7M | $738.9M |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:07pm (21d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $401.8M | $465.9M | $528.4M | $607.7M | $678.1M |
| Capital Expenditure | -$27.2M | -$30.6M | -$32.5M | -$27.6M | -$28.1M |
| Free Cash Flow | $374.6M | $435.3M | $495.9M | $580.1M | $650.0M |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$146.1M | -$119.2M | -$366.9M | -$157.5M | -$309.5M |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | -$88.0M | -$245.0M | -$55.0M | $0 | $492.2M |
| Dividends Paid | -$208.7M | -$211.6M | -$264.3M | -$298.0M | -$327.9M |
| Stock Buybacks | -$10.7M | -$7.1M | -$315.0M | -$11.6M | -$216.9M |
| Net Change in Cash | $6.8M | -$10.0M | $8.5M | -$14.2M | $10.4M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:07pm (21d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +11.2% | +14.0% | +10.3% | +11.0% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +10.0% | +15.6% | +11.4% | +11.1% |
| Operating Income Growth | +12.1% | +18.2% | +12.7% | +10.5% |
| Net Income Growth | +5.1% | +18.0% | +7.2% | +12.9% |
| EBITDA Growth | +9.5% | +16.8% | +12.8% | +10.4% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 1:45pm (21d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | $0.18 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-25 | $0.18 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-10 | $0.18 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-11 | $0.17 | — | — | — |
| 2025-05-12 | $0.17 | — | — | — |
| 2025-02-25 | $0.17 | — | — | — |
| 2024-11-12 | $0.17 | — | — | — |
| 2024-08-12 | $0.15 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-09 | $0.15 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-20 | $0.15 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-09 | $0.15 | — | — | — |
| 2023-08-09 | $0.13 | — | — | — |
| 2023-05-09 | $0.13 | — | — | — |
| 2023-02-09 | $0.13 | — | — | — |
| 2022-11-09 | $0.13 | — | — | — |
| 2022-08-09 | $0.10 | — | — | — |
| 2022-05-09 | $0.10 | — | — | — |
| 2022-02-09 | $0.10 | — | — | — |
| 2021-11-09 | $0.10 | — | — | — |
| 2021-08-09 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-19 11:02Even the bull case prices 43% below today — the ratio here measures the model-vs-market gap, not payoff odds. Another quarter like the worst recent one costs 62%.
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($37.97) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +14% | 15.6% | $21.49 | -43% |
| Base — stabilizes | +10% | 13.6% | $16.27 | -57% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +5% | 11.5% | $12.07 | -68% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | +8% | 12.8% | $14.59 | -62% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Looking at the raw numbers first: Rollins is doing $3.76B in TTM revenue with 14% net margins, $650M FCF, and 38% ROE on modest leverage ($610M debt vs $678M OCF — under 1x). Revenue CAGR of ~11.6% from 2021-2025 ($2.42B → $3.76B) is genuinely impressive for a pest control business, and FCF growth of 14.5% CAGR outpaces earnings — that's the hallmark of a real compounder, not financial engineering. But look at the quarterly deceleration the models are underweighting: Q1 2026 revenue of $906M vs Q1 2025 at $822.5M is 10.2% YoY, decelerating from ~12% earlier; Q4 2025 net margin dropped to 12.8% from 15.9% in Q3, and Q1 2026 margin at 11.9% is the weakest print in the visible series. The trajectory shows margin compression, not expansion.
At $37.97, ROL trades at 34.8x earnings, 22x EV/EBITDA, and 13.4x book — these are software multiples on a route-based services business growing 10% with decelerating margins. The synthesis model's $23-26 fair value looks directionally right but possibly too harsh: a 10% grower with 38% ROE, $650M FCF, and recession-resistant demand deserves 25-28x FCF ($16.2B-$18.2B), which lands close to the current $18.3B market cap. So I'd peg fair value at $33-36, not $23. The DCF-implied $26 assumes a discount rate that doesn't credit the reinvestment quality — Rollins deploys capital at 29% ROIC, and every dollar of retained earnings compounds. The valuation models are penalizing a business that genuinely deserves a premium, just not this much of one.
Where I agree with the synthesis: there's no margin of safety here, and the "flight to quality" premium the narrative layer identifies is real but fragile. The current_ratio of 0.60 is worth flagging — Rollins runs with negative working capital, which is fine for a subscription-like services model but leaves no cushion if collections slow. The insider data is uninformative (all awards and gifts, no open-market buys or sells with clear direction), so I discount the "Neutral" read; absence of insider buying at a 43% drawdown from $66 highs is itself mildly bearish — insiders know the business best and aren't stepping up. The contrarian argument: if pest control demand is truly climate-driven and recession-proof, the current $37.97 with 1.88% dividend yield and ~3.5% FCF yield growing at 10%+ is a perfectly reasonable long-duration bond-substitute for a taxable compounder portfolio. Total return math: 3.5% FCF yield + 10% growth = 13.5% IRR if the multiple holds, which beats the S&P's expected return.
My verdict: I partially dissent from the synthesis. Overvalued relative to strict DCF, yes, but "30% overvalued" overstates it — this is more like 10-15% rich, and the quality of the compounding justifies the majority of the premium. The real risk isn't that fair value is $26; it's that if Q2/Q3 2026 print another 10%-ish growth quarter with 12% margins instead of the 15%+ seen in mid-2025, the multiple compresses from 35x to 28x and you lose 20% before earnings growth bails you out. I'd want $32-33 to start buying and would be a seller above $45. At $37.97, it's a hold-if-owned, pass-if-shopping. The models over-index on DCF and under-index on capital allocation quality; the narrative layer's $26 fundamental + $11 premium framing is the most honest read in the file, but the $11 premium is defensible, not delusional.
GPT Reading
What stands out is not the quality of the business but the price still being asked for it after the drawdown. Rollins has put up an admirable five-year compounding record: revenue grew from $2.42B in 2021 to $3.76B in 2025, about 11.6% annually, while net income rose from $350.7M to $526.7M, roughly 10.7% annually. Gross margin has held around 52%-53%, operating margin reached 19.3% in 2025, and free cash flow of $650.0M nearly matches net income despite only $28.1M of capex. That is a superb service model: low capital intensity, recurring routes, and enough pricing power to keep returns high, with ROIC at 29% and ROE at 38%. If I were judging only the operating company, this is exactly the kind of “boring compounder” you want to own.
But the recent numbers also say the market is no longer dealing with a hidden gem; it is dealing with a fully recognized quality asset. At $18.27B market cap, investors are paying 4.9x sales, 22.1x EV/EBITDA, and 34.8x earnings for a company growing revenue around 11% and earnings around 10%-13%. That multiple can work for a business with visible acceleration or untapped margin runway; I do not see either clearly enough here. Quarterly revenue has risen from $891.9M in 2Q24 to $999.5M in 2Q25 and $1.03B in 3Q25, but then dipped seasonally to $912.9M in 4Q25 and came in at $906.4M in 1Q26. More importantly, net margin has not broken out: 14.5%, 14.9%, 12.7%, 12.8%, 14.2%, 15.9%, 12.8%, 11.9% across the last eight quarters. The 1Q26 print showed 10.2% revenue growth over 1Q25, but net income growth was only 2.5%, with margin down from 12.8% to 11.9%. That is not a disaster, but for 35x earnings it is not good enough.
The core contradiction in the bullish setup is that the business deserves a premium, just not an extreme one. Rollins has modest leverage with $609.8M of debt against $100.0M of cash and $678.1M of operating cash flow, so balance-sheet risk is low. The dividend is supportable, though the 62.3% payout ratio limits reinvestment optionality somewhat. This should trade above average market multiples because pest control is sticky, route-dense, and resilient. Yet the stock is still priced like a near-bond substitute with double-digit growth, despite signs that incremental growth may be more acquisition- and pricing-dependent than margin-accretive. A reasonable quality premium might be high-20s P/E; on 2025 EPS implied by the reported P/E, the current quote embeds continued flawless execution. I come out with fair value closer to the low $30s, not because Rollins is weak, but because the stock is still valuing stability as scarcity.
The best argument against my view is straightforward: companies with this combination of recurring revenue, tiny capex needs, and durable high returns often stay “too expensive” for years and still outperform. Free cash flow of $650.0M on $3.76B of revenue is a 17% FCF margin, and if management can keep compounding revenue at 10%-12% through tuck-in M&A in a fragmented category, a 35x P/E may prove less excessive than it looks. The current ratio of 0.60 is not a concern in this kind of cash-generative service model, and the weak-looking 1Q26 margin may simply reflect timing, seasonality, mix, or integration costs rather than structural erosion. A smart bull would also point out that from 2021 to 2025 operating income rose from $440.0M to $726.1M, a 13.4% CAGR, so management has in fact expanded the earnings base while preserving gross margin. I weigh those points seriously; they are why I am not outright bearish on the business. I am bearish on paying almost $38 for it.
What changes my mind is simple. If the next few quarters show revenue re-accelerating into the low teens while net margin returns sustainably to 14%-15%—not just one quarter, but as a run rate—and free cash flow continues to track or exceed net income, then Rollins would deserve to hold a premium multiple and I would move fair value upward. Conversely, if 2026 revenue growth slips below 9% or operating margin stalls around 19% with first-quarter-like net margin pressure, the current valuation will look plainly too high and a move toward the high $20s would be justified.
Grok Reading
Rollins prints the financial profile of a genuine compounder: revenue compounded from $2.42B in 2021 to $3.76B in 2025 at a clean 10.6% CAGR, net income tracked almost identically from $351M to $527M, and free cash flow of $650M on only $28M of capex demonstrates near-perfect cash conversion in an asset-light model. Gross margins have held at 52.8% and operating margins at 19.3% across the cycle, while ROIC of 29% and ROE of 38% confirm that incremental capital is still earning well above the cost of capital. Quarterly run-rates remain intact—Q1 2026 revenue of $906M was up roughly 10% year-on-year and the seasonal pattern (stronger summer margins of 14–16%, softer winter margins near 12%) is unchanged—so the growth engine has not broken. Debt is modest at $610M against $1.37B of equity, and the 1.9% dividend is comfortably covered by a 62% payout of robust FCF. The numbers tell a story of steady, high-quality mid-teens total-return potential if the multiple holds.
The valuation, however, does not match that mid-teens reality. At $37.97 the stock trades at 35x trailing earnings, 22x EV/EBITDA and nearly 5x sales. Those multiples embed perpetual 10%+ growth plus further margin accretion, yet the most recent quarterly revenue trend is already flagged as decelerating and the absolute dollar growth is still heavily dependent on continued tuck-in M&A rather than organic acceleration. A simple cross-check is unforgiving: $650M of FCF capitalized at a generous 28x (appropriate for a durable 10% grower) yields roughly $18B of enterprise value, or low-to-mid $30s per share—materially below the current price. The 43% drawdown from the prior $66 peak merely took the stock from absurd to expensive; it did not create a bargain.
The strongest counter-argument is that pest control is non-discretionary, recurring, and fragmented, so Rollins deserves a scarcity premium that pure DCF models systematically understate. Bulls will correctly note that FCF CAGR of 14.5% has outpaced earnings, that pricing power has so far absorbed labor inflation, and that a 29% ROIC business with low cult coefficient and moderate narrative intensity is exactly the kind of “boring compounder” that can re-rate higher in risk-off regimes. They will also point out that the balance-sheet capacity for further roll-ups remains intact. I weigh this less heavily because the same qualities are already fully visible in the 35x multiple; any stumble in acquisition integration or a 200 bp margin squeeze from wage pressure would compress the multiple faster than earnings can grow into it. The safety premium is real, but it is already paid for.
I would reverse to neutral or constructive only if the next two reported quarters show organic revenue re-accelerating above 12% with operating margins holding above 19.5%, or if the multiple compresses organically into the high-20s on flat fundamentals.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Revenue has compounded from $2.42B (2021) to $3.76B (2025), roughly 11.6% CAGR, with gross margin nudging up (52.0 to 52.8) and operating margin expanding from 18.1% to 19.3%. Net income scaled from $350.7M to $526.7M and FCF from $374.6M to $650.0M, so FCF/NI runs above 1.2x consistently and OCF/NI is 1.24x - earnings are backed by cash. Beneish M of -2.69, accruals of -4.1% of assets, and Altman Z of 8.38 all corroborate high reporting integrity. Diluted shares actually shrank from 492.1M to 484.1M (-0.4% CAGR), and buybacks are 4.3x SBC while SBC is only 1.1% of revenue - per-share value is being protected, not diluted. The balance sheet is the one soft spot: only $100M liquid cash against $509.8M net debt and $123.7M short-term debt exceeding cash, so ROL leans on its FCF stream rather than a cushion. Given $650M annual FCF, coverage is easy, but this is a constraint, not a fortress. Insider tape is mostly routine awards and one small officer sale ($843K); no meaningful directional signal, and the Rollins family remains embedded on the board.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Organic vs acquired revenue growth split in the 10-K to confirm underlying unit economics
- Terms and maturity ladder of the debt stack behind the $509.8M net debt
- Customer retention rate and route density metrics disclosed by segment
- Whether the family (Rollins) super-voting or concentrated ownership creates governance considerations
- Goodwill and intangibles balance relative to equity given the acquisition cadence
Every valuation lane points below the tape: composite FV $23.19, signal-adjusted FV $26.36, DCF $26.08, anchored P/E $28.87, and an EPV floor of $11.71. Even the most generous anchor (anchored-PE at $28.87) implies ~24% downside from $37.97. The market is capitalizing Rollins as a scarce, bond-like compounder - sticky recurring revenue, pricing power, tuck-in M&A runway - and that story is fully in the price. Earnings quality is clean (no haircut needed), which is what keeps this from being egregious, but clean earnings do not conjure ~44% of extra deserved value.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Organic growth rate ex-acquisitions in latest 10-Q
- Incremental margin trajectory and whether pricing is still outpacing wage inflation
- M&A multiples paid on recent tuck-ins (accretion vs goodwill build)
- Net debt trajectory and any change in capital allocation posture
The tape is mildly constructive (regime +22, VIX 16, S&P just 1.6% off highs) and Rollins' 0.75 beta means macro noise barely grazes it. More importantly, in a market where investors are nervous about stretched multiples (market PE 26.9) and rates (10y 4.68%), a non-cyclical, recurring-revenue pest control compounder is exactly the kind of name that catches passive defensive bids. The steady-compounder archetype with moderate durability is doing quiet work here - it is not a cult story, but it is the story that gets bought when people want to hide. Against that, the narrative itself acknowledges the stock trades 44% above DCF, and that 'paying for perfection' framing is a real overhang: any crack in the pricing-power or margin-accretion story removes the premium fast, and analyst tone on mature defensive names has been drifting from euphoric to skeptical as rate-cut hopes recede. Momentum is positive and news flow is quiet - no narrative rupture, no euphoric spike. Net, the non-fundamental pressure leans modestly positive: defensive bid plus low beta outweigh the latent 'priced for perfection' risk while the tape stays calm.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Any downgrade or target cut from a defensives-focused analyst citing valuation - would crack the flight-to-quality premium
- VIX push above 20 or a sharper S&P drawdown - would actually help ROL relatively via defensive rotation
- Signs the acquisition-integration story is stalling in next print - the single biggest narrative risk
- Sector rotation out of defensives into cyclicals on a growth reacceleration - would quietly bleed the premium
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.