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AGING Analysis Report
Jun 18, 2026
8 days ago · 89% complete · +5 refreshed

Revolve Group, Inc.

RVLV NYSE Categories PDF
Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail
Cerritos, CA 90703, United States IPO 2019 revolve.com Updated Jun 27, 7:36am
Price
$23.76
Market Cap
$1.7B
Employees
1,664
Beta
1.65
Avg Volume
1,116,051
CEO
Michael Mente Mike Karanikolas
Business Description

Revolve Group, Inc. operates as a fashion retailer for millennial and generation z consumers in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, REVOLVE and FWRD. It operates a platform that connects consumers and global fashion influencers, as well as emerging, established, and owned brands. The company offers apparel, footwear, accessories, and beauty products from emerging, established, and owned brands, as well as luxury brands. It serves its customers through its websites, mobile applications, and stores. The company was formerly known as Advance Holdings, LLC and changed its name to Revolve Group, Inc. in October 2018. Revolve Group, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Cerritos, California.

Business History
Generated: Jun 18, 2026 10:26pm
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 7:36am (1h ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 7:36am (1h ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 18, 2026 10:26pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
26.43
Stock Price: $23.76
EPS (Diluted): 0.87
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
4.20
Stock Price: $23.76
Total Equity: $512.54M
Shares: 72,087,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
15.29
Market Cap: $1.70B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $292.26M
EBITDA: $86.90M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$1.9B
Market Cap: $1.70B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $292.26M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
53.5%
Gross Profit: $655.78M
Revenue: $1.23B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
6.1%
Operating Income: $74.26M
Revenue: $1.23B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
5.0%
Net Income: $61.71M
Revenue: $1.23B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
12.9%
Net Income: $61.71M
Total Equity: $512.54M
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
10.1%
Operating Income: $74.26M
Tax Rate: 25.7%
Equity: $512.54M
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $292.26M
Zero debt — invested capital = equity minus cash (very efficient)
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
2.81
Current Assets: $647.03M
Current Liabilities: $230.55M
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.00
Short-Term Debt: $0.00
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $0.00
Total Equity: $512.54M
Zero debt — this company carries no debt obligations. Strongest possible score.
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$17.00
Revenue: $1.23B
Shares: 72,087,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$7.11
Total Equity: $512.54M
Shares: 72,087,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$0.67
Operating CF: $59.40M
CapEx: -$11.41M
Shares: 72,087,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.0%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $23.76
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
—
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $61.71M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 18, 2026 10:26pm
Compares RVLV against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · three lenses
Three separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-06-18 22:31:11
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality — wait for a dip 7/10
Clean, net-cash business at a fair-not-cheap price — a quality name to own lower, not chase here.
The cruxWhether operating margins recover toward the 2021 ~12% peak or stay stuck near 6% — the current multiple already pays for the recovery.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from RVLV's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwayFortress Balance Sheet
DilutionShare Count Shrinking
Earnings QualityGood Earnings Quality
The three lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+0
Solid
edge √Σ 0 · risk √Σ 0 · conf 7/10

Revolve is a financially clean business: $292M of liquid cash, zero debt drag, Altman Z of 6.94, and Beneish M at -1.86 with accruals at just 3% of assets — the mechanical earnings-quality checks are pristine. The company self-funds operations ($48M FCF in the latest year) and is actually a net repurchaser of its own stock: diluted shares went from 74.5M (2021) to 72.1M (2025), a -0.8% CAGR, with buybacks running 120% of SBC. That is rare discipline for a consumer-internet name and meaningfully protects per-share economics.

The business-quality concern is operating performance, not the balance sheet. Revenue grew from $891M (2021) to $1.23B (2025), but operating margin collapsed from 11.8% to a trough of 2.1% in 2023 and has only partially recovered to 6.1% — roughly half of peak. Gross margin also slipped from 55% to 53.5%. Net income in 2025 ($61.7M) is still below 2021 ($99.8M) despite ~38% more revenue, which means each incremental dollar of sales has been deeply unprofitable on the margin. OCF/NI of 0.81x is adequate but not great, and FCF is lumpy ($60M → $18M → $39M → $21M → $48M).

Durability read: the moat is brand/curation in a fashion-cyclical category with no contractual recurring revenue, and the margin compression suggests either pricing power erosion, return-rate pressure, or promotional intensity — the kind of thing that gets worse, not better, in a soft consumer cycle. Insider behavior leans negative: 32 sells / 0 buys over 12 months and founders Mente and Karanikolas converting Class B and selling on the way. Not alarming in size relative to their holdings, but no insider is voting with cash on the other side.

Strengths 0

None surfaced.

Concerns 0

None surfaced.

Valuation / Mispricing
-11
Fairly Valued
edge √Σ 43 · risk √Σ 54 · conf 6/10
Price $21.79 vs deserved ~$22-25 midpoint — within ~10%, essentially fair with no meaningful margin of safety. attractive below $17.50

No e2e fair value was handed over, so I anchor on first principles. Market cap is ~$1.55B at $21.79. Revolve typically carries $250-300M of net cash (no debt, asset-light specialty retail), implying an enterprise value near $1.25-1.30B. On trailing revenue around $1.1B and EBITDA in the $55-75M range post-margin reset, that's ~17-22x EV/EBITDA and ~1.1-1.2x EV/sales — full, not bargain, multiples for a specialty apparel retailer whose operating margin has stepped down from the 2021 peak and not recovered.

Deserved value: this is a Solid business (net cash, clean accounting, good earnings quality) but margins are mid-cycle-weak and the category is discretionary. A fair multiple is roughly 15-18x EBITDA on normalized ~$80-90M = $1.2-1.6B EV, plus ~$280M cash ≈ $1.5-1.9B equity, or $21-27/share. Price sits at the low end of that fair band. There's a plausible upside case if margins re-expand toward 2021 levels, but that's the bull thesis being priced, not a discount. Margin of safety is thin: maybe 5-15% to the midpoint of deserved value.

Cheap signals 2
m35
Net cash cushions the EV
Roughly $280M net cash on a $1.55B market cap means ~18% of the price is cash; EV is closer to $1.27B, which makes the operating business multiple less demanding than headline P/E suggests.
m25
Clean balance sheet limits downside
No debt + good earnings quality means deserved value isn't haircut for accounting risk or refinancing — the floor is firmer than a typical retailer.
Rich / priced-in 2
m45
Multiple assumes margin recovery that hasn't happened
EV/EBITDA in the high-teens on depressed margins implicitly prices a return toward 2021 profitability. Quality lens flags margins are still below peak — paying today for a recovery that is the bull case, not the base case.
m30
Discretionary apparel, no moat premium earned
Specialty apparel with influencer-driven demand deserves a market-ish, not premium, multiple. ~1.1-1.2x EV/sales is fine but not cheap for a business growing low-single-digits.
I see a fairly priced stock, not a mispricing. The business is solid and net-cash, which I respect, but $21.79 already reflects that — I'm not getting paid to wait for margin recovery, I'm paying for it. I'd want it closer to $17-18 (a clear discount to deserved value and a real margin of safety on still-compressed earnings) before I'd call it interesting. Above $25 I'd actively trim. In between, it's a hold-quality-name-at-fair-price situation, not an edge.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Latest quarter gross margin and EBITDA margin trajectory vs 2021 peak
  • Active customer growth and AOV trends — is the core engine reaccelerating?
  • Return/markdown rates, which drove the post-2021 margin step-down
  • Updated cash balance and any buyback pace at current prices
  • Full-year revenue guidance and any commentary on international/men's mix
General Sentiment
+23
Tailwind
tail √Σ 82 · head √Σ 58 · conf 6/10

The macro tape is genuinely neutral with VIX at 17 and the S&P barely off highs, which removes the acute pressure that usually crushes high-beta discretionary names like RVLV. With beta 1.65 in specialty retail, this stock is a leveraged read on consumer sentiment, so the absence of a risk-off impulse is itself a quiet tailwind. Momentum is scored strong_positive and price action has been constructive, which tends to self-reinforce in story-light small/mid-cap consumer names. Analyst tone is the cleaner positive: 18 Buys vs 1 Sell and a $28.43 target implying ~34% upside, with no negative revisions this month - a stable, supportive backdrop rather than a fading one. There is no active disruption narrative weighing on the name (no AI-threat, no margin-collapse story), and the lack of a 'cult' narrative cuts both ways - no euphoria to unwind, but also no story to defend it if discretionary rolls. The offset is macro: 10y at 4.46% and the 'Macro Headwinds' flag mean any uptick in rates or VIX hits high-beta consumer cyclicals first, and RVLV's aspirational-apparel customer is exactly the cohort the tape punishes when sentiment cracks.

Tailwinds 3
m55
Analyst tone supportive, no downward revisions
18 Buys, 1 Sell, $28.43 target vs $21.22 spot and zero negative revisions this month. Stable sell-side backdrop with no fading-narrative tell.
m45
Neutral tape removes acute risk-off pressure
VIX 17, S&P -1.8% from highs - a benign tape that lets a beta-1.65 name breathe rather than get marked down on macro flows.
m40
Positive momentum, no broken story
Strong_positive momentum score with no active bear narrative (no AI-disruption, no margin panic) means flows can keep grinding higher absent a catalyst.
Headwinds 2
m50
High beta into rates/macro headwind flag
Beta 1.65 in specialty retail with 10y at 4.46% means any risk-off flicker or consumer-spend scare hits RVLV harder than the index - asymmetric downside risk.
m30
No narrative moat
No cult story or durable bull narrative on file - if discretionary rotates out of favor, there is no thematic bid (AI, GLP-1, reshoring) to defend the multiple.
Net I read this as a modest tailwind, not a strong one. The tape is neutral, analysts are constructive and not cutting, and there is no live bear story actively de-rating the name - that is enough to lean positive. But I am not getting aggressive: beta 1.65 with a 'macro headwinds' flag and no narrative moat means the sentiment edge here is fragile and tape-dependent. One VIX spike or one weak discretionary print from a peer and this flips to headwind fast.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Any uptick in VIX above 20 or 10y above 4.6% - would flip the high-beta exposure from latent to active headwind
  • Q2 consumer discretionary commentary from peers (luxury, off-price) for signs the aspirational customer is cracking
  • Whether analyst targets start drifting lower - first negative revision would mark a tone change
  • Sector rotation signals out of specialty retail into defensives
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
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Three lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), and General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Deep Analysis

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
No valuation methods available. Run these first:
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 7:36am (1h ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $891.4M $1.1B $1.1B $1.1B $1.2B
Cost of Revenue $401.6M $509.1M $514.5M $536.6M $569.9M
Gross Profit $489.8M $592.3M $554.2M $593.3M $655.8M
Operating Expenses $384.5M $519.2M $532.1M $541.9M $581.5M
Operating Income $105.3M $73.1M $22.1M $51.4M $74.3M
Net Income $99.8M $58.7M $28.1M $49.6M $61.7M
EBITDA $109.2M $81.4M $42.9M $69.6M $86.9M
EPS $1.38 $0.80 $0.39 $0.70 $0.87
EPS (Diluted) — — — — —
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 7:36am (1h ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $218.5M $234.7M $245.4M $256.6M $292.3M
Total Current Assets $439.8M $518.2M $528.6M $561.1M $647.0M
Total Assets $480.4M $579.3M $608.9M $665.5M $765.0M
Current Liabilities $160.2M $181.1M $189.6M $196.1M $230.5M
Long-Term Debt $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Total Liabilities $163.4M $199.7M $223.7M $227.8M $252.5M
Total Equity $317.0M $379.6M $385.1M $438.2M $512.5M
Retained Earnings $213.4M $269.2M $268.4M $305.1M $368.2M
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 7:36am (1h ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $62.3M $23.4M $43.3M $26.7M $59.4M
Capital Expenditure -$2.2M -$5.2M -$4.2M -$5.6M -$11.4M
Free Cash Flow $60.1M $18.3M $39.1M $21.0M $48.0M
Acquisitions (net) $0 $0 $0 $-427,000 $0
Debt Repayment — — — — —
Dividends Paid — — — — —
Stock Buybacks $0 $0 -$30.9M -$11.8M -$2.0M
Net Change in Cash $72.4M $16.3M $10.7M $11.2M $46.6M
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 7:36am (1h ago)
Metric 2025 2026 2027 2028
Revenue $1.2B
$1.2B – $1.2B
 $1.4B
$1.3B – $1.4B
 $1.5B
$1.4B – $1.5B
 $1.6B
$1.6B – $1.6B
EBITDA $89.1M
$88.4M – $91.5M
 $100.2M
$98.7M – $101.7M
 $108.1M
$105.9M – $110.4M
 $116.0M
$116.0M – $116.0M
Net Income $56.7M
$54.5M – $59.0M
 $62.1M
$58.8M – $73.9M
 $74.5M
$62.3M – $87.5M
 $100.1M
$98.8M – $100.7M
EPS — — — —
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 7:36am (1h ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +23.6% -3.0% +5.7% +8.5%
Gross Profit Growth +20.9% -6.4% +7.1% +10.5%
Operating Income Growth -30.5% -69.7% +132.3% +44.4%
Net Income Growth -41.2% -52.0% +76.1% +24.5%
EBITDA Growth -25.5% -47.4% +62.4% +24.8%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 7:36am (1h ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-06-05 COX MELANIE A-Award 5,297.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-05 Murphy Erinn Elisabeth A-Award 5,297.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-05 Ruxandra Oana A-Award 5,297.00 $0.00 $0
2026-04-27 Mente Michael C-Conversion 60,923.00 $0.00 $0
2026-04-28 Mente Michael C-Conversion 42,678.00 $0.00 $0
2026-04-29 Mente Michael C-Conversion 15,640.00 $0.00 $0
2026-04-27 Mente Michael C-Conversion 60,923.00 $0.00 $0
2026-04-28 Mente Michael C-Conversion 42,678.00 $0.00 $0
2026-04-29 Mente Michael C-Conversion 15,640.00 $0.00 $0
2026-04-29 Mente Michael S-Sale 15,640.00 $26.00 $406,640
2026-04-27 Mente Michael S-Sale 60,923.00 $26.43 $1.6M
2026-04-28 Mente Michael S-Sale 42,678.00 $26.35 $1.1M
2026-04-27 Karanikolas Michael C-Conversion 60,923.00 $0.00 $0
2026-04-28 Karanikolas Michael C-Conversion 42,678.00 $0.00 $0
2026-04-29 Karanikolas Michael C-Conversion 15,640.00 $0.00 $0
2026-04-27 Karanikolas Michael C-Conversion 60,923.00 $0.00 $0
2026-04-28 Karanikolas Michael C-Conversion 42,678.00 $0.00 $0
2026-04-29 Karanikolas Michael C-Conversion 15,640.00 $0.00 $0
2026-04-29 Karanikolas Michael S-Sale 15,640.00 $26.00 $406,640
2026-04-28 Karanikolas Michael S-Sale 42,678.00 $26.35 $1.1M
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for RVLV — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Community AI Feedback
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My Notes personal — only you see this
Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.352 · d1100787 · 2026-06-26 11:39:30