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FRESH Analysis Report
Jun 26, 2026
1 day ago · 100% complete

Royal Bank of Canada

RY NYSE Categories PDF
Financial Services · Banks - Diversified
Toronto, ON M5J 2J5, Canada IPO 1995 rbc.com Updated Jun 27, 3:05am
Price
$202.85
Market Cap
$281.9B
Employees
94,624
Beta
0.94
Avg Volume
1,601,606
CEO
David I. McKay
Business Description

Royal Bank of Canada (RBC), established in 1864 and headquartered in Toronto, Canada, operates as a comprehensive global financial institution. Its Personal & Commercial Banking division caters to individual clients by providing essential services like checking and savings accounts, various lending options (including mortgages, personal loans, and auto financing), private banking, investment vehicles such as mutual funds and guaranteed investment certificates (GICs), along with credit cards and payment solutions. For small and medium-sized commercial enterprises, this segment delivers a suite of services including financing, leasing, deposit management, foreign exchange, cash management, auto dealer financing, and trade solutions. These offerings are readily accessible through its extensive network of branches, ATMs, and mobile platforms. The Wealth Management segment specializes in delivering bespoke, advice-driven strategies and solutions to affluent and ultra-affluent individuals, as well as institutional investors. Through its Insurance arm, RBC offers a broad spectrum of protection and advisory services. These encompass life, health, home, auto, travel, wealth, annuities, and reinsurance, alongside comprehensive business insurance options. Clients, whether individuals, businesses, or groups, can access these services via advice centers, dedicated RBC insurance stores, mobile advisors, diverse digital and social platforms, independent brokers, and travel alliances. The Investor & Treasury Services division supports financial institutions and other investors with critical asset servicing, custody, payment processing, and treasury functions. It further extends its expertise to include fund and investment administration, shareholder services, private capital solutions, performance measurement, compliance oversight, distribution support, transaction banking, robust cash and liquidity management, foreign exchange capabilities, and global securities financing. Finally, the Capital Markets segment provides extensive corporate and investment banking solutions. This includes the origination and distribution of equity and debt instruments, strategic advisory services, and comprehensive sales and trading capabilities. Its clientele spans corporations, institutional investors, asset managers, private equity firms, and governmental entities.

Business History
Generated: Jun 26, 2026 3:02am
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 7:58am (just now)
$202.85
-0.88 (-0.43%)
Day Range
$201.58 – $204.25
52-Week Range
$127.38 – $204.82
50-Day MA
$187.94
200-Day MA
$166.60
Volume
1,986,933.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $225.00
Consensus $225.00
High $225.00
(7 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 1,389,780,000.00
Float 1,388,470,896.00
Free Float 99.9%
High free float — 99.9% of shares trade freely, ~0.1% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 7:58am (just now)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 7:58am (just now)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 26, 2026 3:01am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
18.13
Stock Price: $202.85
EPS (Diluted): 14.12
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
2.08
Stock Price: $202.85
Total Equity: $139.09B
Shares: 1,409,680,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
30.71
Market Cap: $281.92B
Total Debt: $830.37B
Cash: $87.39B
EBITDA: $28.73B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$1.0T
Market Cap: $281.92B
Total Debt: $830.37B
Cash: $87.39B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
45.3%
Gross Profit: $62.17B
Revenue: $137.36B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
18.7%
Operating Income: $25.65B
Revenue: $137.36B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
14.8%
Net Income: $20.36B
Revenue: $137.36B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
16.0%
Net Income: $20.36B
Total Equity: $139.09B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
1.0%
Operating Income: $25.65B
Tax Rate: 20.6%
Equity: $139.09B
Total Debt: $830.37B
Cash: $87.39B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
0.13
Current Assets: $206.49B
Current Liabilities: $1,554.49B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
5.97
Short-Term Debt: $476.56B
Long-Term Debt: $353.81B
Total Debt: $830.37B
Total Equity: $139.09B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$97.44
Revenue: $137.36B
Shares: 1,409,680,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$98.67
Total Equity: $139.09B
Shares: 1,409,680,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$37.58
Operating CF: $55.22B
CapEx: -$2.24B
Shares: 1,409,680,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
3.0%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $202.85
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $20.36B
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 26, 2026 3:01am
Compares RY against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 26, 2026 3:04:57 am

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
No insider transaction data for RY
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 7:58am (just now)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $57.7B $66.8B $113.5B $134.5B $137.4B
Cost of Revenue $7.4B $18.5B $64.3B $80.2B $75.2B
Gross Profit $50.3B $48.3B $49.1B $54.3B $62.2B
Operating Expenses $29.7B $28.2B $30.9B $34.4B $36.5B
Operating Income $20.6B $20.1B $18.2B $19.9B $25.7B
Net Income $16.0B $15.8B $14.6B $16.2B $20.4B
EBITDA $23.2B $22.8B $21.0B $22.8B $28.7B
EPS $11.08 $11.08 $10.33 $11.27 $14.12
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 3:00am (1d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $193.5B $180.4B $133.1B $122.7B $87.4B
Total Current Assets $253.6B $266.8B $241.8B $200.0B $206.5B
Total Assets $1.7T $1.9T $2.0T $2.2T $2.3T
Current Liabilities $1.2T $1.3T $1.3T $1.5T $1.6T
Long-Term Debt $201.1B $277.8B $316.9B $334.2B $353.8B
Total Liabilities $1.6T $1.8T $1.9T $2.0T $2.2T
Total Equity $98.7B $108.1B $115.0B $127.1B $139.1B
Retained Earnings $71.8B $78.0B $81.7B $88.6B $96.9B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 7:58am (just now)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $61.0B $21.9B $26.1B $23.1B $55.2B
Capital Expenditure -$2.2B -$2.5B -$2.7B -$2.3B -$2.2B
Free Cash Flow $58.9B $19.4B $23.3B $20.9B $53.0B
Acquisitions (net) $78.0M -$2.4B $1.7B -$12.7B $0
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks -$6.2B -$11.3B -$4.1B -$6.7B -$13.5B
Net Change in Cash -$5.0B -$41.4B -$10.4B -$5.3B -$19.7B
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 7:58am (just now)
Metric 2025 2026 2027 2028
Revenue $66.1B
$66.1B – $66.1B
$68.8B
$68.4B – $69.2B
$71.9B
$71.5B – $72.3B
$76.0B
$74.9B – $77.1B
EBITDA $17.3B
$17.3B – $17.3B
$18.0B
$17.9B – $18.1B
$18.8B
$18.7B – $18.9B
$19.9B
$19.6B – $20.2B
Net Income $19.9B
$19.7B – $20.2B
$21.7B
$21.6B – $21.8B
$23.9B
$23.7B – $24.1B
$25.8B
$25.3B – $26.2B
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 7:58am (just now)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +15.9% +69.8% +18.5% +2.1%
Gross Profit Growth -4.0% +1.7% +10.5% +14.6%
Operating Income Growth -2.5% -9.6% +9.2% +29.1%
Net Income Growth -1.5% -7.5% +11.1% +25.5%
EBITDA Growth -2.0% -7.6% +8.6% +25.8%
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 3:00am (1d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-07-27 $1.24 2026-05-27 2026-07-27 2026-08-24
2026-04-23 $1.20 2026-02-25 2026-04-23 2026-05-22
2026-01-26 $1.20 2025-12-03 2026-01-26 2026-02-24
2025-10-27 $1.10 2025-02-27 2025-10-27 2025-11-24
2025-07-24 $1.13 2025-02-27 2025-07-24 2025-08-22
2025-04-24 $1.07 2025-02-27 2025-04-24 2025-05-23
2025-01-27 $1.03 2024-12-04 2025-01-27 2025-02-24
2024-10-24 $1.02 2024-08-28 2024-10-24 2024-11-22
2024-07-25 $1.03 2024-05-30 2024-07-25 2024-08-23
2024-04-24 $1.01 2024-02-28 2024-04-25 2024-05-24
2024-01-24 $1.02 2023-11-30 2024-01-25 2024-02-23
2023-10-25 $0.98 2023-08-24 2023-10-26 2023-11-24
2023-07-25 $1.02 2023-05-25 2023-07-26 2023-08-24
2023-04-24 $0.97 2023-03-01 2023-04-25 2023-05-24
2023-01-25 $0.99 2022-11-30 2023-01-26 2023-02-24
2022-10-25 $0.94 2022-08-24 2022-10-26 2022-11-24
2022-07-25 $1.00 2022-05-26 2022-07-26 2022-08-24
2022-04-22 $0.94 2022-02-24 2022-04-25 2022-05-24
2022-01-25 $0.95 2021-12-01 2022-01-26 2022-02-24
2021-10-25 $0.87 2021-08-25 2021-10-26 2021-11-24
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for RY — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-26 03:05:34
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict I largely agree with the synthesis's $187 fair value anchor but disagree with calling 8% overvaluation "fair value" — at cycle-peak margins, peak P/B, and with mortgage-renewal risk ahead, 8% is the wrong direction of error. The asymmetry is poor: upside requires sustained 16%+ margins and no credit normalization (maybe 10-15% further upside to $230 if everything goes right); downside on a normal credit cycle reversion is 20-25% to the $155-165 range where Canadian banks trade in mid-cycle. The narrative layer is correct that this is anchored, durable, and boring — but boring doesn't mean cheap. For income investors already holding, the 3% yield plus buybacks justifies holding through cycle noise. For new capital, paying 2.1x book at peak margins is buying comfort at a premium. I'd want $180 or lower before initiating, which implies waiting for either a credit scare or capital-markets revenue disappointment — both plausible within 12 months given the Q2'26 sequential softness.

Reading the raw numbers first: RBC's TTM revenue is roughly $139B with NI around $22.1B (sum of the last four quarters: 5.51+5.78+5.43+5.42), a ~15.9% net margin that has visibly stepped up from the 12-14% range a year ago. The most recent quarter (Apr 2026) shows revenue down sequentially to $33.93B from $35.44B — first sequential decline in the visible series — though margin held at 16.2%. Earnings YoY for the latest quarter is +25.5%, but that's lapping a weak $4.39B Q2'25 print; normalize against the two-year stack and earnings growth is closer to ~12%, not the headline 25%. FCF of $53B against a $285B market cap is a ~18.6% FCF yield, which sounds absurd until you remember bank "FCF" is largely meaningless — operating cash flow at banks reflects deposit/loan flows, not distributable cash. Ignore the 50.6% FCF CAGR; it's noise. The real cash-return metric is the 3.05% dividend yield plus buybacks, which for a Canadian Big Six runs ~5-6% total shareholder yield.

On the prior models: the synthesis verdict of "fair value" at $187.40 vs $203.73 (8% premium) is defensible but its "RED FLAG: High debt risk — interest coverage dangerously low" is a category error. RBC is a bank; interest expense IS cost of goods, not leverage stress. Current ratio of 0.13 and ROA of 0.89% are also nonsensical to flag — every bank looks like this. The classification engine got it right (mature_earner), the narrative layer got it right (anchored, minimal intensity, oligopoly premium), but the valuation synthesis is leaning on generic-company red flags that don't apply. The pre-flight thesis — that the market is pricing rate-cut tailwinds plus housing soft-landing plus wealth-fee growth — is the correct framing.

The contrarian case: RBC at 2.08x book and 18.2x TTM earnings is at the top end of its 10-year range. Canadian banks historically trade 1.4-1.8x book; 2.1x is priced for a benign credit cycle in perpetuity. PCLs (provisions for credit losses) have been running elevated but manageable; if Canadian unemployment ticks above 7.5% or mortgage renewals at higher rates trigger a delinquency wave (the bulk of 2020-2021 vintage 5-year fixed mortgages renew 2025-2026), the 16% margin reverts to 13% and earnings drop 15-20%. HSBC Canada integration synergies are largely in the run-rate now, so that tailwind is fading. Also worth noting: the sequential revenue dip from $35.44B to $33.93B in the latest quarter could be the first hint that capital markets revenue is normalizing from cyclical highs — exactly the risk the pre-flight flagged. The 25.5% YoY earnings growth is flattered by an easy comp; underlying run-rate growth is high-single-digits.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-26 03:05:42
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I agree with Opus — RBC is overvalued at $203.73, but I see a fair value closer to $175, not $180, given potential macroeconomic risks and sequential revenue softness.

In reviewing the raw data for the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC), a few key themes emerge. The bank has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a substantial increase from $57.68B in 2021 to $137.36B in 2025. This growth reflects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 24.6%. Despite this, there seems to be a plateau in revenue growth with a recent sequential decline from $35.44B to $33.93B in Q1 2026. Net margins have improved from 12.4% in late 2024 to a consistent 16% range in 2026, indicating improved profitability. However, this mirrors a general trend of heightened performance across the financial sector, influenced by favorable macroeconomic conditions that may not be sustainable in the long term. The bank's valuation metrics, like a P/E ratio of 18.2 and a P/B ratio of 2.1, suggest it is priced at a premium compared to historical norms for Canadian banks, reflecting market confidence in its stability and oligopoly status.

I agree with Opus's assertion that the current valuation reflects peak conditions and that the 8% overvaluation is a concern. The narrative of RBC being a steady, reliable institution is correct, but Opus correctly notes that this does not equate to undervaluation. The sequential revenue decline and the potential for credit normalization add downside risk that could re-rate the stock significantly lower. Opus is also right to highlight the potential risks associated with mortgage renewals and credit cycle normalization, which could impact margins and earnings. I agree with Opus’s skepticism about the FCF yield, noting that such figures can be misleading for banks where cash flows reflect balance sheet movements rather than distributable profits.

Where I diverge slightly is on the perceived risk of a significant re-rating. While Opus posits a potential downside to the $155-165 range, I believe this is somewhat exaggerated. The bank's entrenched position in the Canadian market, combined with its diversified operations and conservative management, should provide some buffer against severe downside scenarios. However, the premium valuation does suggest that the market is pricing in an optimistic scenario, leaving little room for error.

A careful skeptic might argue that both my and Opus's views underestimate the potential for RBC to continue capitalizing on its strong market position and oligopoly status in Canada. They might point out that the bank's resilience and adaptability could allow it to navigate economic headwinds more effectively than our analyses suggest. Additionally, skeptics could argue that the dividend yield and buybacks provide sufficient shareholder return to justify the current valuation, especially in a low-interest-rate environment.

Community AI Feedback
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My Notes personal — only you see this
Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.352 · d1100787 · 2026-06-26 11:39:30