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AGING Analysis Report
Jun 7, 2026
19 days ago · 93% complete

Teck Resources Limited

TECK NYSE Categories PDF
Basic Materials · Industrial Materials
Vancouver, BC V6C 0B3, Canada IPO 2002 teck.com Updated Jun 27, 8:01am
Price
$58.22
Market Cap
$28.1B
Employees
7,200
Beta
1.57
Avg Volume
3,167,808
CEO
Jonathan H. Price
Business Description

Established in Vancouver, Canada, in 1913, Teck Resources Limited is dedicated to the exploration, acquisition, development, and extraction of natural resources across Asia, Europe, and North America. The company organizes its operations into Steelmaking Coal, Copper, Zinc, Energy, and Corporate segments. Its diverse product offerings include steelmaking coal, copper, gold, blended bitumen, lead, silver, molybdenum, zinc, and zinc concentrates. Teck also produces specialized metals like indium and germanium, in addition to various chemicals and fertilizers. Furthermore, the company holds an interest in the Frontier oil sands projects located in Alberta's Athabasca region, and maintains stakes in exploration and development ventures spanning Australia, Chile, Ireland, Mexico, Peru, Turkey, and the United States. Formerly operating as Teck Cominco Limited, the company officially adopted the name Teck Resources Limited in April 2009.

Business History
Generated: Jun 7, 2026 5:24pm
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 8:01am (just now)
$58.22
-0.78 (-1.32%)
Day Range
$57.76 – $59.93
52-Week Range
$30.98 – $71.25
50-Day MA
$62.17
200-Day MA
$51.55
Volume
2,801,618.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $62.00
Consensus $64.50
High $67.00
(13 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 481,984,883.00
Float 467,138,494.00
Free Float 96.9%
High free float — 96.9% of shares trade freely, ~3.1% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 8:01am (just now)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 24, 2026 12:45pm (2d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 7, 2026 5:24pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
21.85
Stock Price: $58.22
EPS (Diluted): 2.84
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
1.29
Stock Price: $58.22
Total Equity: $25.08B
Shares: 495,400,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
8.46
Market Cap: $28.06B
Total Debt: $9.60B
Cash: $5.01B
EBITDA: $4.37B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$37.8B
Market Cap: $28.06B
Total Debt: $9.60B
Cash: $5.01B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
21.8%
Gross Profit: $2.35B
Revenue: $10.75B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
16.5%
Operating Income: $1.77B
Revenue: $10.75B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
13.0%
Net Income: $1.40B
Revenue: $10.75B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
7.4%
Net Income: $1.40B
Total Equity: $25.08B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
4.2%
Operating Income: $1.77B
Tax Rate: 35.3%
Equity: $25.08B
Total Debt: $9.60B
Cash: $5.01B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
2.54
Current Assets: $11.15B
Current Liabilities: $4.40B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.38
Short-Term Debt: $571.53M
Long-Term Debt: $9.03B
Total Debt: $9.60B
Total Equity: $25.08B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$21.69
Revenue: $10.75B
Shares: 495,400,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$50.62
Total Equity: $25.08B
Shares: 495,400,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$-2.05
Operating CF: $1.04B
CapEx: -$2.06B
Shares: 495,400,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.8%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $58.22
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $1.40B
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 7, 2026 5:24pm
Compares TECK against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 7, 2026 5:28:21 pm

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 24, 2026 12:45pm (2d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $12.8B $17.3B $6.5B $9.1B $10.7B
Cost of Revenue $7.6B $8.7B $5.4B $7.5B $8.4B
Gross Profit $5.2B $8.6B $1.1B $1.6B $2.3B
Operating Expenses $231.0M $1.6B $890.0M $1.6B $577.5M
Operating Income $5.0B $7.0B $222.0M -$9.0M $1.8B
Net Income $2.9B $3.3B $2.4B $406.0M $1.4B
EBITDA $6.2B $8.2B $861.0M $1.8B $4.4B
EPS $5.39 $6.30 $4.67 $0.79 $2.84
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 24, 2026 12:45pm (2d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $1.4B $1.9B $744.0M $7.6B $5.0B
Total Current Assets $6.1B $8.3B $6.5B $12.6B $11.2B
Total Assets $47.4B $52.4B $56.2B $47.0B $45.4B
Current Liabilities $3.8B $5.9B $5.9B $4.4B $4.4B
Long-Term Debt $8.4B $8.8B $9.5B $8.6B $9.0B
Total Liabilities $23.6B $25.8B $27.9B $19.9B $19.4B
Total Equity $23.0B $25.5B $27.0B $26.1B $25.1B
Retained Earnings $16.3B $18.1B $19.6B $17.1B $0
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 24, 2026 12:45pm (2d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $4.7B $8.0B $4.1B $2.8B $1.0B
Capital Expenditure -$4.6B -$5.5B -$4.3B -$2.6B -$2.1B
Free Cash Flow $105.0M $2.5B -$256.0M $155.0M -$1.0B
Acquisitions (net) $0 $0 $1.0B $9.5B $244.8M
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks $0 -$1.4B -$250.0M -$1.2B -$1.0B
Net Change in Cash $977.0M $456.0M -$1.1B $6.8B -$2.2B
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 8:01am (just now)
Metric 2027 2028 2029 2030
Revenue $14.2B
$12.0B – $16.5B
$12.1B
$10.6B – $13.7B
$13.1B
$11.4B – $14.8B
$12.5B
$10.9B – $14.1B
EBITDA $4.8B
$4.1B – $5.6B
$4.1B
$3.6B – $4.6B
$4.4B
$3.9B – $5.0B
$4.2B
$3.7B – $4.8B
Net Income $2.2B
$1.2B – $2.8B
$1.7B
$1.4B – $2.0B
$1.8B
$1.5B – $2.1B
$292.0M
$244.1M – $340.4M
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 24, 2026 12:45pm (2d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +35.6% -62.6% +40.0% +18.6%
Gross Profit Growth +64.4% -87.0% +44.5% +46.1%
Operating Income Growth +40.2% -96.8% -104.1% +19,761.7%
Net Income Growth +15.7% -27.4% -83.1% +244.8%
EBITDA Growth +33.5% -89.5% +107.1% +145.3%
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 24, 2026 12:45pm (2d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-06-15 $0.09 2026-04-23 2026-06-15 2026-06-30
2026-03-13 $0.09 2026-02-18 2026-03-13 2026-03-31
2025-12-15 $0.09 2025-10-22 2025-12-15 2025-12-31
2025-09-15 $0.09 2025-07-24 2025-09-15 2025-09-29
2025-06-16 $0.09 2025-04-24 2025-06-16 2025-06-30
2025-03-14 $0.09 2025-02-19 2025-03-14 2025-03-31
2024-12-13 $0.09 2024-11-14 2024-12-13 2024-12-31
2024-09-13 $0.46 2024-07-11 2024-09-13 2024-09-27
2024-06-17 $0.09 2024-04-25 2024-06-17 2024-06-28
2024-03-14 $0.09 2024-02-23 2024-03-15 2024-03-28
2023-12-14 $0.09 2023-11-16 2023-12-15 2023-12-29
2023-09-14 $0.09 2023-07-26 2023-09-15 2023-09-29
2023-06-14 $0.09 2023-04-26 2023-06-15 2023-06-30
2023-03-14 $0.46 2023-02-21 2023-03-15 2023-03-31
2022-12-14 $0.09 2022-11-16 2022-12-15 2022-12-30
2022-09-14 $0.10 2022-07-26 2022-09-15 2022-09-29
2022-06-14 $0.10 2022-04-26 2022-06-15 2022-06-30
2022-03-14 $0.49 2022-02-23 2022-03-15 2022-03-31
2021-12-14 $0.04 2021-11-17 2021-12-15 2021-12-31
2021-09-14 $0.04 2021-08-25 2021-09-15 2021-09-29
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for TECK — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-07 17:28:57
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict Fairly valued at peak-cycle pricing — fair value $55-65 on mid-cycle copper assumptions; hold if owned, but no margin of safety to initiate at $61.67 given negative FCF and 4.2% ROIC.

Looking at the raw quarterly tape first: revenue ramped from $1.80B (Q2'24) to $3.94B (Q1'26) — a genuine acceleration, not noise. Net margin walked from -24.5% (Q4'24 writedown) through 8-16% in mid-2025 to 20.8% in the most recent quarter. Annual 2025 revenue of $10.75B with $1.40B NI is a real recovery off the 2024 trough ($9.07B/$406M) but still well below 2022's $17.32B/$3.32B peak. The cyclical fingerprint is unmistakable: 2022 op margin was 40%, 2024 was zero, 2025 is back to 16.5%. This isn't a "mature earner" — the classification model is wrong, and the pre-flight tag (commodity-cyclical-multi-segment) is correct.

The synthesis verdict ("Disconnected from Fundamentals — 40-50% premium to historical mining valuations at 2.8x P/S") is the part I most want to push back on. That framing ignores two things. First, Teck divested its coal business (EVR sale to Glencore closed mid-2024) and is now a copper-dominant pure-play — copper miners legitimately trade at 3-5x P/S (FCX ~3x, SCCO ~7x), not the 1.5-2.0x diversified-miner average the synthesis anchors to. So the "premium" is partly a re-rating that's already earned. Second, EV/EBITDA of 8.8x is actually middle-of-the-road for a copper producer mid-cycle, not expensive. The synthesis appears to be applying a legacy diversified-miner lens to a post-transformation business. That's a meaningful analytical error.

That said, the bear case has real teeth that the bull narrative glosses. FCF was -$1.02B in 2025 against $1.04B OCF because capex ran $2.06B — QB2 ramp and copper growth capex is eating cash, and ROIC of 4.2% is genuinely poor for the price being paid. P/B of 1.29x is the one honest "cheap" metric, but ROE of 7.3% on that book doesn't justify a re-rating above 1.5x without copper prices cooperating. The Q1'26 print at $3.94B/20.8% margin is suspiciously good — that's likely peak-of-cycle copper pricing ($4.50+/lb) flowing through, and reverse-engineering a normalized earnings number at $3.50/lb copper probably puts NI closer to $900M-$1.1B annualized, implying a normalized P/E in the high-20s. That's not cheap for a price-taker.

The contrarian read: every model here is either mis-classifying the business (mature earner, narrative stock) or anchoring to stale comps (diversified miner multiples). The honest framing is that Teck is a leveraged bet on copper at a cycle peak, trading at a fair-to-slightly-rich multiple of peak earnings, with a balance sheet ($5.0B cash, manageable debt post-EVR) that can survive a downturn but a capex profile that won't generate FCF until QB2 ramps fully in 2027+. I dissent from the synthesis "Disconnected from Fundamentals" verdict — the multiple isn't egregious for a copper pure-play — but I also dissent from any bullish read that extrapolates Q1'26 margins. Fair value sits in the $55-65 range assuming mid-cycle copper; downside to $40-45 in a recession; upside to $75-80 only if copper sustains $5+/lb through 2026. At $61.67 you're paying fair price for cyclical risk with no margin of safety, and the negative FCF means you're funding growth from the balance sheet, not earnings.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-07 17:29:04
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I somewhat agree with Opus's verdict — fairly valued at $61.67, but I'd adjust the fair value range to $50-70, emphasizing copper price volatility and capital intensity as key risk factors.

Teck Resources Limited's recent financial trajectory highlights its significant recovery from a 2024 trough to more robust figures in early 2026. The quarterly revenue uptick from $1.80 billion in Q2 2024 to $3.94 billion in Q1 2026, coupled with improving net margins, underscores a cyclical rebound typical of the mining sector. The 2025 annual revenue of $10.75 billion and net income of $1.40 billion mark a notable recovery, though still a far cry from the 2022 peak. A standout point for me is the substantial cash and equivalents of $5.01 billion, which provides Teck with a solid liquidity base amid ongoing negative free cash flow challenges. The high operating cash flow of $1.04 billion contrasts with the negative free cash flow of -$1.02 billion, indicating heavy capital expenditures that pressure cash reserves.

I align with Opus's critique of the synthesis verdict that labels Teck as "Disconnected from Fundamentals." The assertion of a 40-50% premium based on traditional mining valuations fails to account for Teck's strategic shift towards a copper-centric focus after divesting its coal business. This shift justifies a re-rating with valuations more aligned with other copper producers, like Freeport-McMoRan and Southern Copper, which operate at higher P/S ratios. Opus rightly points out that an EV/EBITDA of 8.8x fits within the typical range for copper miners, reinforcing the notion that Teck's current market pricing reflects its new business model rather than an unjustifiable premium. However, I diverge slightly from Opus on the implied fair value range. I see a slightly wider fair value range of $50-70, considering the volatility and uncertainty in global copper pricing.

Where I agree with Opus is regarding the bear case. The negative free cash flow situation, driven by substantial capex needs for growth projects like QB2, is a real concern. This, coupled with a modest ROIC of 4.2%, suggests that while the company is on a path to transformation, its current financial metrics do not support a bullish stance without significant copper price tailwinds. The suspicion that Q1 2026's strong performance might reflect peak copper prices is valid, and a recalibration to more conservative copper pricing assumptions could diminish perceived profitability.

A skeptic might argue that both Opus and I are potentially underestimating the downside risks in a global economic slowdown, particularly if China's growth falters more than expected or if decarbonization accelerates faster than anticipated, impacting steelmaking coal demand. They might also point out that Teck's strategic pivot to copper, while promising, is not immune to commodity price volatility, and the substantial capex commitments could strain financials if market conditions turn adverse.

Community AI Feedback
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My Notes personal — only you see this
Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.352 · d1100787 · 2026-06-26 11:39:30