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AGING Analysis Report
Aug 2, 2026
21 days ago · 100% complete
NOT DEPENDABLE This report predates a filing — its financial basis has been replaced.
Report generated: Aug 2, 2026 · Filing on record since: Aug 19, 2026 · 16 days after
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Tyler Technologies Inc. (TYL) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score -1 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 71 · Value -59 · Sentiment -40 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $210.43 vs $309.60 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

Tyler Technologies Inc.

TYL NYSE
Technology · Software - Application
Plano, TX 75024, United States tylertech.com Updated Aug 2, 1:41pm
Price
$309.60
Market Cap
$12.7B
Employees
7,879
Beta
0.82
Avg Volume
882,410
Last Dividend
$0.02
CEO
Mr. H. Lynn Moore Jr.

Tyler Technologies Inc. is a U.S.-based software and technology company that delivers integrated solutions for the public sector. Headquartered in Plano, Texas, it focuses on state and local governments, courts, public safety agencies, school districts, and other public institutions, providing systems that support core administrative and citizen-facing functions. Its Enterprise Software segment offers applications for public administration, enterprise resource planning, courts and justice, public safety, property appraisal and tax, permitting and licensing, and school administration. The Platform Technologies segment provides digital government services, online portals, payment processing, and transaction-based solutions that help agencies manage electronic interactions with residents and businesses. Tyler Technologies’ products are typically delivered as mission-critical, often cloud-hosted software combined with implementation, support, and data services, enabling clients to improve efficiency, transparency, and service delivery across their operations. Founded in the United States and operating primarily in North America with select international reach, the company is a leading specialist in government technology and public-sector software.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 2, 2026 1:54pm
Price Overview
Price at report time
$309.60
as of Aug 2, 1:56pm (21d ago)
Change · Aug 2
-13.71 (-4.24%)
Day Range
$307.63 – $321.62
52-Week Range
$270.71 – $621.34
50-Day MA
$305.04
200-Day MA
$375.68
Volume
1,244,100.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 21d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 40,930,564.00
Float 38,289,148.00
Free Float 93.5%
High free float — 93.5% of shares trade freely, ~6.5% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:07pm (21d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:07pm (21d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 2, 2026 1:52pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
43.00
Stock Price: $309.60
EPS (Diluted): 7.20
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
3.66
Stock Price: $309.60
Total Equity: $3.70B
Shares: 43,812,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
23.63
Market Cap: $12.74B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $1.02B
EBITDA: $496.03M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$11.7B
Market Cap: $12.74B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $1.02B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
46.5%
Gross Profit: $1.08B
Revenue: $2.33B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
15.3%
Operating Income: $357.68M
Revenue: $2.33B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
13.5%
Net Income: $315.60M
Revenue: $2.33B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
8.5%
Net Income: $315.60M
Total Equity: $3.70B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
10.8%
Operating Income: $357.68M
Tax Rate: 19.1%
Equity: $3.70B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $1.02B
Zero debt — invested capital = equity minus cash (very efficient)
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.05
Current Assets: $1.84B
Current Liabilities: $1.76B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.00
Short-Term Debt: $0.00
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $0.00
Total Equity: $3.70B
Zero debt — this company carries no debt obligations. Strongest possible score.
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$53.24
Revenue: $2.33B
Shares: 43,812,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$84.52
Total Equity: $3.70B
Shares: 43,812,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$14.55
Operating CF: $653.54M
CapEx: -$16.02M
Shares: 43,812,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.0%
Last Dividend: $0.02
Stock Price: $309.60
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $315.60M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 2, 2026 1:52pm
Compares TYL against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:07pm (21d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $1.6B $1.9B $2.0B $2.1B $2.3B
Cost of Revenue $882.6M $1.1B $1.1B $1.2B $1.2B
Gross Profit $709.6M $783.9M $861.1M $935.8M $1.1B
Operating Expenses $390.6M $403.1M $458.3M $458.7M $465.0M
Operating Income $180.7M $214.2M $218.5M $299.5M $357.7M
Net Income $161.5M $164.2M $165.9M $263.0M $315.6M
EBITDA $316.4M $373.3M $372.6M $443.0M $496.0M
EPS $3.95 $3.95 $3.95 $6.17 $7.32
EPS (Diluted) $3.82 $3.87 $3.88 $6.05 $7.20
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 1:41pm (21d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $309.2M $173.9M $165.5M $744.7M $1.0B
Total Current Assets $964.3M $847.2M $860.6M $1.4B $1.8B
Total Assets $4.7B $4.7B $4.7B $5.2B $5.6B
Current Liabilities $829.5M $889.7M $1.0B $1.1B $1.8B
Long-Term Debt $718.5M $957.4M $596.2M $597.9M
Total Liabilities $2.4B $2.1B $1.7B $1.8B $1.9B
Total Equity $2.3B $2.6B $2.9B $3.4B $3.7B
Retained Earnings $1.3B $1.4B $1.6B $1.9B $2.2B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:07pm (21d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $371.8M $381.5M $380.4M $624.6M $653.5M
Capital Expenditure -$33.9M -$22.5M -$20.5M -$20.5M -$16.0M
Free Cash Flow $337.8M $358.9M $359.9M $604.1M $637.5M
Acquisitions (net) -$2.1B -$163.9M -$62.8M -$1.4M -$83.7M
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid)
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks -$13.0M $0 $0 $0 -$174.7M
Net Change in Cash -$294.5M -$135.3M -$8.4M $579.2M $270.7M
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:07pm (21d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +16.2% +5.5% +9.5% +9.1%
Gross Profit Growth +10.5% +9.9% +8.7% +15.8%
Operating Income Growth +18.5% +2.0% +37.1% +19.4%
Net Income Growth +1.7% +1.0% +58.5% +20.0%
EBITDA Growth +18.0% -0.2% +18.9% +12.0%
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 1:41pm (21d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
1990-01-31 $0.00
1989-11-02 $0.00
1989-04-26 $0.00
1989-02-01 $0.00
1988-11-03 $0.00
1988-08-22 $1.11
1988-08-09 $0.01
1988-04-27 $0.01
1988-02-03 $0.01
1987-10-29 $0.01
1987-07-29 $0.01
1987-04-29 $0.01
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable 18 computed · 6 not applicable
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-19 11:13
-0.8 : 1 recovery upside vs repeat-quarter downside
Even the bull case prices 53% below today — the ratio here measures the model-vs-market gap, not payoff odds. Another quarter like the worst recent one costs 70%.
CaseGrowthMarginFair valuevs price ($309.60)
Bull — recovery +16% 15.4% $144.64 -53%
Base — stabilizes +11% 13.4% $108.28 -65%
Bear — keeps slipping +5% 11.4% $79.37 -74%
Stress — last quarter repeats +6% 13.2% $93.39 -70%
The next quarters keep the trajectory of the worst recent matched quarter (ending 2025-12-31) — growth stays at 6.3% and margins bend by the same profit-vs-revenue ratio (×0.98). Stress is a trajectory, not a prediction — it answers "what if the ship's current heading simply continues," which history says is the case to respect.
Why this is appearing: this company files quarterly, so its recent trajectory could be measured rather than assumed — the engine matched Jun 2026, Mar 2026 against the same quarters one year earlier and found revenue +8.4% · operating income +5.5% · net income +5.4% year-over-year. That measured heading is what the stress case extends forward. Of those, the stress case extends the worst matched quarter — the one ending Dec 31, 2025 (revenue +6.3%, operating income +4.6% YoY) — not the average. Data measured through Jun 30, 2026 — this card recalculates automatically when the next quarterly filing is ingested. Companies without quarterly filings (many foreign listings) never show this card: with no measured trajectory, there is nothing honest to repeat.
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for TYL — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-08-02 14:06:14
Verdict Modestly overvalued high-quality compounder — fair value $255-275 on FCF basis, wait for $260 entry or Q2/Q3'26 growth reacceleration before adding.

Looking at the raw numbers first: TYL is compounding revenue at ~9% (Q1'26 $613.5M vs Q1'25 $565.2M = 8.5% YoY; FY25 $2.33B vs FY24 $2.14B = 8.9%), with operating margin expanding from 11.4% in 2021 to 15.3% in 2025 and FCF conversion running at an eye-watering $637.5M on $2.33B revenue (27.4% FCF margin). Capex is $16M — negligible. Balance sheet is clean: $1.02B cash, zero debt tag, $3.7B equity. This is a genuinely high-quality compounder. But at $12.74B market cap with $315.6M net income, that's a 40x trailing P/E and roughly 20x EV/FCF — not cheap for 9% top-line growth. The earnings CAGR of 38% is a base-effect artifact from 2021's depressed $161.5M coming off the NIC acquisition; the run-rate story is ~9% revenue + margin expansion, not a 38% earner.

The prior models are largely aligned that TYL is fully priced, and I agree with the direction but want to sharpen the numbers. The synthesis's $209 composite / $255 signal-adjusted fair value looks reasonable to slightly punitive. On $637.5M FCF growing 10-12% (revenue + modest margin creep), a 25x FCF multiple gets you ~$16B EV or ~$385/share — that's the bull case. A 20x multiple gets $12.75B, essentially spot on today's price. The narrative layer's $255 DCF for 7-8% organic anchored value feels right for a base case; the gap to $310 is the M&A/pricing-power optionality premium. Where I dissent from the synthesis is the magnitude — calling this 17.6% overvalued understates the FCF quality. This isn't a 43x P/E stock in economic reality; GAAP earnings are depressed by stock-comp and amortization from acquisitions. On FCF, it's ~20x, which for a monopoly-esque recurring revenue business with 95%+ retention isn't egregious.

The contrarian bear case the models undersell: Q4'25 revenue of $575.2M was a sequential *decline* from Q3'25's $595.9M, and Q1'26 at $613.5M shows the deceleration trend. The "decelerating quarterly trend" flag is real — 2025 quarters bounced between $565M and $596M before Q1'26 broke out. Net margin also swings 11.4%-14.3% quarter to quarter, suggesting either seasonality or lumpiness in license recognition that could mask deceleration. If organic growth is actually 6-7% (rest being M&A), then the anchored fair value drops toward $220-230 and the 17.6% overvaluation is closer to 30%. The bear narrative's point about TAM consolidation nearing completion is the sneaky risk — Tyler has been the roll-up king of muni software; if acquisition targets thin out or multiples paid rise, the growth algorithm breaks. Also worth noting: ROE of 8.5% and ROIC of 10.8% are mediocre for a "monopoly" — the goodwill from acquisitions is dragging returns, which argues the reinvestment story isn't as high-quality as the FCF headline suggests.

Insider activity is uninformative — a smattering of option exercises and small awards, no meaningful open-market buying or selling to read either way. Data staleness is a concern: latest quarter dated 2026-03-31 with insider activity through mid-2026 suggests this file is fresh, but the annual balance sheet is year-end 2025 and shows "—" for total debt which is either truly zero or a data gap (given the acquisition history, verify — Tyler carried ~$500M in debt post-NIC deal historically). My verdict: I partially agree with the synthesis — TYL is modestly overvalued, not deeply so. Fair value on FCF-based reasoning is $255-275, not $209. At $309, you're paying a ~15-20% premium for a business that deserves *some* premium but not this much given decelerating organic growth and mediocre ROIC. A patient buyer waits for $260 or a growth reacceleration print; existing holders shouldn't panic-sell a compounder of this quality. The 50% drawdown from $621 already flushed the froth — the remaining overvaluation is modest, not egregious.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-02 14:06:28
Verdict Fair-to-overvalued at $309 — excellent debt-free government software franchise, but the current price already discounts high-quality execution; I’d need roughly $250-$275 or a clear reacceleration in growth to get constructive.

Tyler looks like exactly what the market thinks it is: a very good business, and at $309 it is still not a cheap stock. The operating record is strong. Revenue has climbed from $1.59B in 2021 to $2.33B in 2025, a 10%ish annualized pace, while operating income nearly doubled from $180.7M to $357.7M and net income rose from $161.5M to $315.6M. That is not financial engineering either: 2025 operating cash flow was $653.5M and free cash flow was $637.5M, more than 2x reported net income because capex is only $16M. The balance sheet is pristine with $1.02B of cash and no debt. For a government software vendor with sticky systems and long customer lives, those are elite traits. The issue is that the stock already capitalizes most of that quality.

What stands out in the quarterlies is not deterioration, but moderation. Revenue moved from $541.0M in 2Q24 to $613.5M in 1Q26; good, but not explosive. The most recent quarter was up 8.5% year over year against 1Q25, and trailing annual growth from 2024 to 2025 was 8.9%. Net margins have held in a tight 11%-14% band, with 1Q26 at 13.2%, essentially flat versus 14.3% a year earlier. That tells me Tyler has become a compounding execution story rather than a rerating story. A 43x P/E, 5.8x sales, and 23.6x EV/EBITDA are rich multiples for a company growing high single digits with mid-teens operating margins. Even giving full credit for the cash-rich, debt-free model and unusually high cash conversion, I have trouble underwriting much upside from here unless growth reaccelerates into the low teens or margins break materially above the current 15.3% operating level.

The cash flow strength is the main reason I am not outright bearish. On free cash flow, the stock is closer to 20x 2025 FCF ($12.74B market cap against $637.5M FCF), and enterprise value is lower because of the $1.02B cash balance. That is much more digestible than 43x earnings and explains why simple P/E-based screens can make Tyler look more expensive than the business really is. But even on that friendlier lens, this is a premium multiple for a mature software name whose recent quarterly revenue pattern has been basically flat-to-up sequentially rather than accelerating. The market seems to be paying for durability, customer stickiness, and public-sector mission criticality. Fair enough. I just do not see enough in the raw numbers to justify paying a substantial premium above a mid-$200s value range.

The best case against my caution is straightforward: Tyler may deserve to be valued more like infrastructure software than ordinary application software. Gross margin of 46.5% is lower than flashy SaaS peers, but the economic quality may actually be higher because customer churn is low, contracts are embedded, and government replacement cycles are painful. If free cash flow continues to outrun earnings by this margin, and if earnings keep compounding at 15%-20% while revenue grows 8%-10%, then a 23x EV/EBITDA multiple is not egregious. The annual progression from $214.2M operating income in 2022 to $357.7M in 2025 is real evidence of operating leverage, and the recent quarters do not show collapse. A bull would also point out that the stock has already fallen dramatically from prior highs, so some valuation air has already come out even as fundamentals improved.

What would change my mind is also straightforward. If Tyler can post two or three quarters of sustained double-digit revenue growth, say 11%-13% year over year, while lifting operating margin toward 17%-18% and keeping free cash flow above $650M-$700M annualized, then today’s price would start to look reasonable and perhaps attractive. Conversely, if growth slips toward 6%-7% while net margin stays stuck around 12%-13%, the current multiple will look plainly too high and I would want a price beginning with a 2, likely closer to $250 than $310, before getting interested.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-08-02 14:07:08
Verdict Overvalued at $310; quality FCF compounder but 43× PE and 9% growth point to ~$255–275 fair value

Tyler’s numbers describe a high-quality cash compounder that has already done most of its easy margin work. Revenue climbed from $1.59B in 2021 to $2.33B in 2025 at a 9.3% CAGR, with the latest quarter printing $613.5M and trailing twelve-month growth still near 9%. Net income more than doubled over the same span to $315.6M, driving the 37.9% earnings CAGR and lifting operating margin to 15.3% and net margin to 13.5%. The real standout is cash conversion: $653.5M of operating cash flow and only $16M of capex produced $637.5M of free cash flow—a 27% FCF margin on a debt-free balance sheet that holds $1.02B in cash against $3.70B of equity. At a $12.74B market cap the stock yields roughly 5% free cash flow, which is respectable for sticky vertical software. Yet the market is still paying 43× trailing earnings, 5.8× sales and 23.6× EBITDA for mid-single-digit organic growth that secondary signals already flag as decelerating. ROE of 8.5% and ROIC of 10.8% are pedestrian for those multiples; the company is simply not generating enough incremental return on its large equity base to justify a growth-stock premium once the margin-expansion runway shortens.

The valuation synthesis that pins fair value near $255 (signal-adjusted) therefore looks directionally correct. A business growing revenue at 9% with limited further operating leverage should not trade at nearly 18× free cash flow after netting the cash pile, especially when public-sector budget cycles remain a macro headwind. The 50% drawdown from the $621 peak has already removed the most egregious froth, but it has not brought the shares to a level where the forward math is compelling. Insider activity is noise—mostly option exercises and small awards—and does nothing to signal undervaluation.

The strongest contrary case rests on durability rather than growth. Tyler’s municipal and court systems carry genuine multi-decade switching costs; the platform-monopoly narrative is not pure storytelling. If management can keep extracting 100–150 bp of annual price and mix while folding in bolt-on acquisitions at reasonable multiples, the 9% top-line can persist longer than a pure organic model assumes, and the fortress balance sheet gives them dry powder to do so. FCF of $637M also means the company can repurchase a meaningful slice of the float or fund M&A without leverage, supporting a higher terminal multiple than a typical mature earner. A bull who capitalizes that cash flow stream at 22–24× and layers on modest multiple expansion from successful cross-sell could defend a mid-$300s price. I weigh this less heavily because the same data already show revenue growth flattening quarter-to-quarter and ROIC stuck in the low double digits; pricing power that is merely “durable” does not automatically clear a 43× earnings hurdle when organic growth is no longer double-digit.

I would reverse to a neutral or constructive stance if the next two quarters deliver sequential revenue acceleration above 11% year-over-year while holding operating margin at or above 15.5%, or if management announces a material capital-return program that shrinks the share count by at least 4–5% annually. Conversely, any guidance cut that implies full-year 2026 revenue growth below 7% or a visible stall in free-cash-flow conversion would confirm the overvaluation and push fair value closer to the low-$200s.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 3.0; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ -1.0 vs panel · self: 4.0
GPT gpt-5.4 5.0
fairly valued · conviction 4/5 · Δ +2.0 vs panel · self: 4.0
Grok grok-4.5 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ -1.0 vs panel · self: 3.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-02 21:50:06
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality - wait for a dip 8/10
Great franchise, wrong price, wrong tape - I want TYL badly, but not at $309 when quality is +71, value is -59, and sentiment is -40.
The cruxWhether the post-print 'thrashed' overhang drags the stock into the $235-250 zone where the DCF and anchored-PE band actually lives - that is the only path to a real position.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from TYL's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionStable Share Count
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+71
Strong
edge √Σ 137 · risk √Σ 48 · conf 8/10

Tyler is a mature earner showing genuine operating leverage: revenue compounded from $1.59B (2021) to $2.33B (2025), gross margin expanded from 44.6% to 46.5%, and operating margin stepped up from ~11% to 15.3%. Net income nearly doubled from $161.5M to $315.6M while FCF surged from $337.8M to $637.5M - a 27% FCF margin. Earnings quality is high: OCF/NI of 2.27x, negative accruals (-5.3% of assets), Beneish M at -2.72, and Altman Z of 5.13 all point to real, cash-backed earnings rather than accrual-driven optics.

Strengths 4
m78
Cash-backed earnings
OCF/NI of 2.27x with -5.3% accruals and FCF of $637.5M on $315.6M net income shows earnings are conservatively stated and fully cash-supported.
m70
Operating leverage inflection
OpM expanded from 11.4% (2021) to 15.3% (2025) and GM from 44.6% to 46.5% while revenue grew ~47% cumulatively - clear scaling, likely from SaaS mix shift.
m68
Fortress-lite balance sheet
$1.10B liquid cash, net cash positive, Altman Z 5.13 (safe zone). Self-funding with $637.5M annual FCF eliminates any survival question.
m55
Sticky government end-market
Public-sector ERP/court/permitting software implies high switching costs and multi-year contracts - consistent with the smooth, non-cyclical revenue ramp.
Concerns 3
m38
SBC exceeds buybacks 3-to-1
SBC is 6.5% of revenue while buybacks recover only 31.8% of it; diluted share count crept from 42.2M to 43.8M (0.9% CAGR) - modest but real per-share leakage.
m22
Insider selling with zero buys
7 sells ($2.66M) and 0 open-market buys in TTM. Not alarming in size, but no insider is voting with cash at current levels.
m20
Net income lags FCF growth path
FCF jumped from $359.9M (2023) to $637.5M (2025) while net income moved $165.9M to $315.6M - the gap suggests D&A/deferred revenue tailwinds; useful to confirm underlying GAAP earnings power keeps pace.
This is a high-quality compounder in an unglamorous but exceptionally durable niche. The numbers hang together honestly - cash exceeds accounting earnings, margins are widening as the SaaS transition matures, and the balance sheet is a non-issue. My only real quibble is that management uses stock as compensation more aggressively than they neutralize it via repurchases, so per-share value creation is quietly taxed by ~1% a year. The insider tape shows the usual awards-and-exercises rhythm with no conviction buying, which is neither a red flag nor a vote of confidence. On business quality alone, this sits comfortably in the upper-middle of the public universe.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • SaaS vs license/maintenance revenue mix and net revenue retention
  • Customer concentration and contract length in 10-K
  • Bridge between net income and FCF - deferred revenue and D&A components
  • Any acquisition-related intangibles amortization suppressing GAAP margin vs cash margin
  • SBC grant guidelines and buyback authorization capacity
Valuation / Mispricing
-59
Rich
edge √Σ 25 · risk √Σ 92 · conf 7/10
Price $309.60 vs deserved ~$250 - a roughly 20% premium, not a margin of safety. attractive below $235.00

The e2e synthesis pins signal-adjusted fair value at $255.15 and composite FV at $209.57 against a $309.60 price - an 18% overpay on the more generous number and closer to 32% on the composite. The DCF ($255.88) and anchored P/E ($240.36) cluster in the $240-256 zone, giving a defensible deserved-value band; the $86 EPV floor is a runaway low-end I discount as a stress case, not a target. Earnings quality is high, so no haircut is warranted, and the Strong business grade justifies pricing at the upper end of that band - but not above it.

Cheap signals 1
m25
Durability justifies upper-band FV
Decades-long switching costs and pristine earnings quality argue for anchoring on the $255 end of the range, softening the overvaluation from 'egregious' to 'moderately rich.'
Rich / priced-in 4
m62
Price 18-32% above fair-value band
At $309.60 the stock sits above both the $255.15 signal-adjusted FV and the $209.57 composite; DCF ($255.88) and anchored-PE ($240.36) corroborate the mid-$240s as deserved.
m55
Priced-for-perfection platform narrative
Bull case of eternal municipal pricing power and cloud-transition tailwinds appears fully embedded; any slippage in retention or SaaS margin expansion has no cushion at this multiple.
m35
SBC dilution not fully offset
Quality lens flags stock comp outpacing buybacks, quietly leaking per-share value - a mild deserved-value drag at a premium price.
m20
EPV floor at $86 is a wide asymmetry warning
Even discounting the EPV as a runaway low-end method, the enormous gap between growth-based FV and no-growth EPV shows how much of today's price depends on sustained reinvestment returns.
This is the classic wonderful-business-fair-to-full-price setup. I like the franchise, the earnings are clean, and the moat is real - but at $309.60 I am paying about 20% above what the DCF and anchored-PE both say the business deserves, with zero margin of safety. I would want it in the low $230s before it becomes interesting, and I would be a happier buyer under $210 near the composite FV. At today's price I am not short it, I am just not paying for it.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • SaaS ARR growth and net revenue retention in latest quarter
  • Public-sector deal win rates vs cloud/open-source competitors
  • Stock-based comp as % of revenue and buyback pace
  • Any guidance revisions on margin trajectory or bookings
General Sentiment
-40
Headwind
tail √Σ 48 · head √Σ 91 · conf 6/10

Tyler is a low-beta (0.82) platform-monopoly story that normally floats above the tape, but the immediate pressure is negative and stock-specific: the July 30 print delivered strong SaaS metrics (21.7% SaaS growth, record bookings) yet only a 'slight bottom-line beat,' and headlines explicitly frame the stock as 'thrashed.' For a name whose entire premium rests on durable pricing power and flawless execution, a reaction like that is exactly the kind of narrative crack that lingers -- it signals the buy-side bar has risen faster than results, and the CODY acquisition (more M&A-driven growth) plays into the bear framing of decelerating organics masked by deals. Macro is a mild secondary headwind rather than a decisive one. The tape is technically neutral-to-slightly-positive (+22), VIX is tame at 16, and the 0.82 beta blunts market swings -- but 10y at 4.68% and a 26.9x market PE press hardest on long-duration, premium-multiple software, which is precisely this cohort. Analyst tone around a 'wanted more' quarter typically means estimate trims and target nudges lower in the coming days. Net: the narrative is durable but its intensity is only moderate and just took a hit; there is no cult bid to absorb the disappointment. Pressure leans headwind, not catastrophic.

Tailwinds 2
m38
Record SaaS bookings and FCF
The underlying Q2 substance -- 21.7% SaaS growth, record bookings, record 2Q FCF -- gives longs a coherent counter-narrative and limits downside once the reaction fades.
m30
Low beta plus defensive end-market
0.82 beta and public-sector revenue base mean broad tape wobbles hit this name less than typical software; in a neutral +22 regime that is a genuine cushion.
Headwinds 4
m62
Post-print 'thrashed' reaction
Headlines explicitly say the stock got thrashed on a slight beat -- for a premium-multiple compounder, a bad print reaction tends to overhang the tape for weeks as estimates and targets get walked in.
m45
Rates pressure on long-duration software
10y at 4.68% and market PE 26.9 press hardest on premium SaaS multiples; TYL's low beta softens the blow but the sector-level de-rating risk still lands on a name trading well above its DCF anchor.
m40
Narrative 'growth via M&A' framing
The CODY Systems acquisition arriving alongside a lukewarm print feeds the bear story that organic growth is decelerating and needs to be papered over with deals -- a subtle but real narrative erosion.
m28
No cult bid to defend the tape
Cult coefficient is low and narrative intensity only moderate -- there is no retail or thematic buyer stepping in reflexively on weakness the way there would be in an AI or crypto-adjacent name.
My read: pressure leans clearly headwind but not severe. The narrative is durable enough that this is not a story-break, but it just took a visible hit on a print the market called disappointing, and there is no cult or thematic bid to paper over it. Macro is a mild amplifier via long-duration rate sensitivity, muted by the low beta. I would expect a few weeks of drift and estimate trims before the compounder narrative reasserts itself -- headwind now, not strong headwind.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Sell-side target revisions and estimate cuts in the 1-2 weeks after the Q2 print
  • Whether organic (ex-M&A) growth commentary firms or softens on follow-up conference appearances
  • Any rotation into defensive/GARP software that would give TYL a bid despite the print
  • 10y yield direction -- a move back under 4.4% would relieve premium-multiple pressure
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
not run

This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.

The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.562 · 9b2927c4 · 2026-08-22 16:52:06