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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for United Therapeutics Corporation (UTHR) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-14): Designation Watch · Cairn score +28 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 74 · Value -9 · Sentiment 14 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $527.28 vs $525.82 at analysis
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
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United Therapeutics Corporation
UTHR NASDAQUnited Therapeutics Corporation is a biotechnology company specializing in therapies for pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH), pulmonary hypertension associated with interstitial lung disease, and other serious conditions. Founded in 1996 and headquartered in Silver Spring, Maryland, the company operates as a public benefit corporation focused on developing innovative treatments and technologies. Its FDA-approved therapeutic portfolio includes Tyvaso (treprostinil), available in both inhalation powder and nebulized formulations; Remodulin Injection; Orenitram Extended-Release Tablets; Adcirca (tadalafil); and Unituxin for treating PAH and related conditions. Beyond traditional pharmaceuticals, United Therapeutics pursues transformational initiatives through its subsidiary Lung Biotechnology PBC to address the critical shortage of transplantable organs through xenotransplantation and bioengineering technologies. The company maintains a robust commercial presence, distributing products through healthcare provider networks and partnerships. Its pipeline includes clinical programs exploring new therapeutic indications, delivery mechanisms, and organ manufacturing solutions. United Therapeutics serves patients, healthcare providers, and research institutions globally, combining steady commercial performance with visionary medical innovation.
Earnings Schedule
Checked daily · calendar updated Aug 14| Print date | EPS est. | EPS actual | Revenue est. | Revenue actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | $6.86 | $7.27 +6.0% | — | — |
| May 18, 2026 | $1.35 | $1.50 +11.1% | — | — |
| May 6, 2026 | $6.86 | $5.82 -15.2% | — | — |
| Apr 14, 2026 | $0.44 | $0.48 +9.1% | — | — |
| Feb 25, 2026 | $6.76 | $7.70 +13.9% | — | — |
Green = beat the estimate, red = missed. An earnings print is the fastest way a thesis changes — our designations should be re-read after each one.
Recent SEC Filings
| Filed | Form | Document |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | SCHEDULE 13G/A | View |
| Aug 13, 2026 | 4 | View |
| Aug 13, 2026 | SCHEDULE 13G/A | View |
| Aug 12, 2026 | 4 | View |
| Aug 11, 2026 | 4 | View |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 4 | View |
| Aug 7, 2026 | 4 | View |
| Aug 6, 2026 | 4 | View |
| Aug 6, 2026 | 4 | View |
| Aug 6, 2026 | 144 | View |
| Aug 5, 2026 | 4 | View |
| Aug 5, 2026 | 8-K | View |
Filings link to the SEC’s EDGAR system. Annual/quarterly reports (10-K, 10-Q, 20-F) carry the full story; 8-K/6-K current reports are the fastest signal that something material happened.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 27.86
Total Equity: $7.10B
Shares: 47,900,000
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $1.56B
EBITDA: $1.58B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $1.56B
Revenue: $3.18B
Revenue: $3.18B
Revenue: $3.18B
Total Equity: $7.10B
Tax Rate: 22.1%
Equity: $7.10B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $1.56B
Current Liabilities: $560.60M
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $0.00
Total Equity: $7.10B
Shares: 47,900,000
Shares: 47,900,000
CapEx: -$520.50M
Shares: 47,900,000
Stock Price: $525.82
Net Income: $1.33B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 6:47pm (14d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.7B | $1.9B | $2.3B | $2.9B | $3.2B |
| Cost of Revenue | $122.5M | $151.6M | $257.5M | $309.7M | $384.4M |
| Gross Profit | $1.6B | $1.8B | $2.1B | $2.6B | $2.8B |
| Operating Expenses | $1.0B | $805.0M | $885.1M | $1.2B | $1.3B |
| Operating Income | $555.9M | $979.7M | $1.2B | $1.4B | $1.5B |
| Net Income | $475.8M | $727.3M | $984.8M | $1.2B | $1.3B |
| EBITDA | $605.8M | $1.0B | $1.2B | $1.4B | $1.6B |
| EPS | $10.60 | $15.98 | $21.04 | $26.44 | $30.13 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $10.06 | $15.00 | $19.81 | $24.64 | $27.86 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 6:26pm (14d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $894.8M | $961.2M | $1.2B | $1.7B | $1.6B |
| Total Current Assets | $2.3B | $3.4B | $3.6B | $3.9B | $3.7B |
| Total Assets | $5.2B | $6.0B | $7.2B | $7.4B | $7.9B |
| Current Liabilities | $305.4M | $343.2M | $804.4M | $738.1M | $560.6M |
| Long-Term Debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total Liabilities | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.2B | $920.0M | $783.8M |
| Total Equity | $4.0B | $4.8B | $6.0B | $6.4B | $7.1B |
| Retained Earnings | $4.3B | $5.0B | $6.0B | $7.2B | $8.6B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 6:47pm (14d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $598.2M | $802.5M | $978.0M | $1.3B | $1.6B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$120.8M | -$138.8M | -$230.4M | -$246.5M | -$520.5M |
| Free Cash Flow | $477.4M | $663.7M | $747.6M | $1.1B | $1.0B |
| Acquisitions (net) | $0 | $0 | -$89.2M | $0 | $0 |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | — | $0 | $0 | -$1.0B | -$1.0B |
| Net Change in Cash | $156.1M | $66.4M | $246.5M | $489.5M | -$140.1M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 6:47pm (14d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +14.9% | +20.2% | +23.6% | +10.6% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +14.2% | +16.0% | +24.0% | +9.0% |
| Operating Income Growth | +76.2% | +20.9% | +16.2% | +8.4% |
| Net Income Growth | +52.9% | +35.4% | +21.4% | +11.7% |
| EBITDA Growth | +70.2% | +20.1% | +17.1% | +8.9% |
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 6:38pm (14d ago)All SEC Form 4 codes
- P Purchase
- Open-market or private purchase of shares.
- S Sale
- Open-market or private sale of shares.
- A Award / grant
- Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
- D Return to issuer
- Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
- F In-kind (tax)
- Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
- I Discretionary
- Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
- M Option exercise
- Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
- C Conversion
- Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
- E Short expiration
- Expiration of a short derivative position.
- H Long expiration
- Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
- O OTM exercise
- Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
- X ITM exercise
- Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
- G Gift
- Bona fide gift of securities.
- L Small acquisition
- Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
- W Inheritance
- Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
- Z Voting trust
- Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
- J Other
- Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
- K Equity swap
- Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
- U Tender / buyout
- Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.
Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | MAHON PAUL A | M-OptionExercise | 8,300.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-08-06 | MAHON PAUL A | S-Sale | 760.00 | $512.92 | $389,817 |
| 2026-08-06 | MAHON PAUL A | S-Sale | 1,795.00 | $514.82 | $924,106 |
| 2026-08-06 | MAHON PAUL A | S-Sale | 1,360.00 | $515.93 | $701,665 |
| 2026-08-06 | MAHON PAUL A | S-Sale | 1,617.00 | $516.93 | $835,869 |
| 2026-08-06 | MAHON PAUL A | S-Sale | 780.00 | $517.94 | $403,994 |
| 2026-08-06 | MAHON PAUL A | S-Sale | 360.00 | $518.82 | $186,776 |
| 2026-08-06 | MAHON PAUL A | S-Sale | 1,308.00 | $521.50 | $682,118 |
| 2026-08-06 | MAHON PAUL A | S-Sale | 320.00 | $522.40 | $167,166 |
| 2026-08-05 | ROTHBLATT MARTINE A | M-OptionExercise | 9,500.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-08-05 | ROTHBLATT MARTINE A | S-Sale | 200.00 | $502.29 | $100,458 |
| 2026-08-05 | ROTHBLATT MARTINE A | S-Sale | 80.00 | $511.07 | $40,886 |
| 2026-08-05 | ROTHBLATT MARTINE A | S-Sale | 160.00 | $524.59 | $83,934 |
| 2026-08-05 | ROTHBLATT MARTINE A | S-Sale | 529.00 | $514.28 | $272,054 |
| 2026-08-05 | ROTHBLATT MARTINE A | S-Sale | 205.00 | $515.44 | $105,666 |
| 2026-08-05 | ROTHBLATT MARTINE A | S-Sale | 386.00 | $516.72 | $199,456 |
| 2026-08-05 | ROTHBLATT MARTINE A | S-Sale | 557.00 | $517.48 | $288,239 |
| 2026-08-05 | ROTHBLATT MARTINE A | S-Sale | 1,891.00 | $518.51 | $980,504 |
| 2026-08-05 | ROTHBLATT MARTINE A | S-Sale | 1,496.00 | $519.62 | $777,353 |
| 2026-08-05 | ROTHBLATT MARTINE A | S-Sale | 1,011.00 | $520.58 | $526,305 |
Deep Analysis
Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-14 02:50Recovery pays -25%; another quarter like the last one costs 45%. Ratio -0.6:1.
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($525.82) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +8% | 35.0% | $391.95 | -25% |
| Base — stabilizes | +5% | 35.0% | $360.85 | -31% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +3% | 35.0% | $331.79 | -37% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | -2% | 35.0% | $287.06 | -45% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
The raw print here is genuinely impressive on level but showing hairline cracks on trajectory. Annual revenue moved $1.69B → $1.94B → $2.33B → $2.88B → $3.18B — a clean 17% CAGR — but the quarterly tape tells a different story: Q1'25 $794M, Q2 $799M, Q3 $800M, Q4 $790M, Q1'26 $782M. That is five quarters flat-to-down, with the most recent print the lowest of the sequence and net income at $274.9M — the weakest since mid-2024, with margin compressing from 46.1% to 35.2% sequentially. The 10.6% "recent YoY" number is arithmetic truth but masks that sequential momentum has stalled. For a company priced at 18.9x earnings on a PAH franchise (Tyvaso DPI is the driver) facing Liquidia's yutrepia launch and Merck's sotatercept expansion, that stall is exactly the shape you'd expect if competitive erosion is beginning.
The balance sheet is a fortress — $1.56B cash, zero debt, 6.6x current ratio, 21% ROIC, 88% gross margins, $1.04B FCF — and that's what makes the Synthesis "undervalued at $650 fair value" call defensible on a static DCF. But a DCF anchored on 17% historical CAGR is the wrong regime input if the quarterly data is signaling the growth curve is rolling over. If you re-run the DCF with 3-5% forward revenue growth and margin normalization to 35%, fair value collapses toward $450-500, not $650. The Synthesis and Market Narrative layers both lean on trailing extrapolation; neither seems to have weighted the sequential deceleration heavily enough. Market Forces flagging "structural franchise deterioration" and insider selling is, I think, closer to correct than the composite verdict.
The insider activity deserves more weight than the models give it. Ten transactions on 2026-07-17/20, all sales except the option exercises that funded them — that's a coordinated liquidation window, not one executive rebalancing. Sizes are small individually (80 to 1,874 shares) but the pattern of multiple insiders selling on the same two days after option exercises is the classic "informed cluster." It doesn't prove a patent-cliff thesis, but combined with Q1'26 being the weakest quarter in two years, it argues against buying the "market is irrationally discounting the Rothblatt vision" narrative. Insiders don't sell into an underappreciated story; they sell into a fully-priced or deteriorating one. A contrarian bull would counter that these are pre-scheduled 10b5-1 exercises tied to option vesting and that the Q1 dip is one datapoint against a multi-year uptrend — fair, but the burden of proof shifts to the next print.
I dissent from the Synthesis "undervalued +23.7%" verdict and side closer to Market Forces. The composite fair value of $587-650 assumes the growth engine is intact; the quarterly data says the engine is sputtering exactly when Liquidia and Merck are entering the field. At $526, you are paying 18.9x for a business that may print flat-to-down revenue in 2026 with margin pressure from competitive response — that's not cheap, that's fair-to-full. The moonshot optionality (xenotransplant, artificial lung) is real but unquantifiable and decades away; it should not be part of the anchor, only a call option on top. My fair value range is $470-540 assuming PAH franchise plateaus and modest erosion; upside to $600+ requires evidence the Q1'26 print was an anomaly, which we won't have until Q2'26 reports. The stock isn't a short — the cash generation and balance sheet won't let it break — but it's not the 24% discount the synthesis claims. Wait for the next print; if revenue reaccelerates to $820M+ and margins recover to 40%+, the undervalued thesis reactivates. If Q2 comes in flat or down again, fair value re-anchors lower and the insider cluster looks prescient.
GPT Reading
United Therapeutics looks to me like a very high-quality specialty pharma franchise that the market is valuing mostly correctly, not cheaply. The raw business is excellent: 2025 revenue was $3.18B, up from $2.88B in 2024 and $2.33B in 2023, while net income reached $1.33B for a 41.9% annual margin. That is not just profitable, it is unusually resilient profitability for biotech. Gross margin at 87.9%, operating margin at 46.9%, ROIC at 21.0%, and zero debt with $1.56B of cash make this one of the cleaner balance sheets in the group. Quarterly revenue has also held near an elevated plateau around $790M-$800M for four straight quarters in 2025, which says the core franchise is still commercially strong. But the same quarterly data also says something important: growth has already flattened sequentially. Revenue went $794.4M, $798.6M, $799.5M, then down to $790.2M, and the latest quarter was $781.5M. That is still up versus the prior-year quarter, but it does not support paying a clear growth premium.
The valuation is not demanding in a vacuum, but it is not a bargain once you match it to the shape of the numbers. At $26.2B market cap, investors are paying about 7.9x sales, 18.9x earnings, and 13.8x EV/EBITDA for a company whose current earnings power is real but whose near-term trajectory increasingly resembles a mature franchise. If I annualize the latest quarter, revenue is roughly $3.13B and net income about $1.10B, below 2025’s full-year $1.33B net income run rate. The latest quarter’s net margin dropped to 35.2% from 40.6% in the year-ago quarter and from 46.1% in the immediately preceding quarter. Some of that may be mix or timing, but when a company already trading near 19x earnings starts showing a revenue plateau and margin compression, I stop calling it undervalued. The market is already giving full credit for durability. The bull case needs either a re-acceleration in the PAH franchise or visible monetization from pipeline optionality; neither is in these numbers yet.
What stands out most is the mismatch between elite historical compounding and a more mature current cadence. From 2021 to 2025, revenue nearly doubled from $1.69B to $3.18B and net income almost tripled from $475.8M to $1.33B. Free cash flow of $1.04B in 2025 on $1.56B of operating cash flow remains excellent even after heavy capex of $520.5M, which likely reflects investment rather than maintenance burden. That supports a premium multiple. But the company is no longer being valued off the 2021-2025 ramp; it should be valued off the next two to three years. On that basis, I see a cash-rich, dominant niche pharma company with perhaps low-double-digit growth and some erosion risk, not a compounding machine that deserves a major rerating above the current $525 price. The “undervalued to $650” style output feels too trusting of historical growth and too forgiving of the recent flattening in quarterly sales and the March-quarter margin drop.
The strongest argument against my view is straightforward: you are getting a debt-free business earning more than $1.3B annually, generating over $1B of free cash flow, with ROE of 18.8% and ROA of 16.9%, at less than 19x earnings despite above-market growth and substantial strategic optionality. A smart bull would also note that 2026 Q1 revenue of $781.5M was still 10.6% above the prior-year quarter implied by the growth data, so calling the franchise stagnant may be premature. On that read, the quarter-to-quarter wobble is noise, capex is building future value, and the stock deserves to trade into the high teens or low 20s on forward earnings, which can get you comfortably above today’s price. I weigh that less heavily because specialty pharma with concentrated legacy economics rarely gets the benefit of the doubt forever, and the insider tape here is not helping sentiment: clustered option exercises plus same-day sales are not dispositive, but they are also not the kind of signal I want to ignore when growth is visibly moderating.
What would change my mind is simple. If the next two quarters show revenue back above $800M with net margins returning toward 40%-42%, then the recent softness was transient and I would move bullish, because that would support sustained annualized earnings power around or above $1.3B while preserving the current multiple. I would also turn more constructive if free cash flow expands despite elevated capex, showing that investments are not diluting owner economics. On the other hand, if revenue slips into the mid-$700Ms for multiple quarters or annual net income trends closer to $1.1B than $1.3B, then today’s 18.9x earnings multiple is too high for a flattening franchise and the stock should be materially lower.
Grok Reading
The raw numbers describe a cash-compounding specialty pharma that has just hit an air pocket. Annual revenue climbed from $1.69B in 2021 to $3.18B in 2025 with net income scaling from $476M to $1.33B, producing a 16.9% revenue CAGR and 16.4% earnings CAGR while gross margins held near 88% and net margins expanded into the low-40s. Free cash flow of $1.04B against a fortress balance sheet (zero debt, $1.56B cash, current ratio 6.6) and an ROIC of 21% is the profile of a mature earner still throwing off capital at an elite rate. Yet the quarterly tape tells a different story: revenue peaked at $799.5M in Q3 2025 and has now printed two sequential declines, landing at $781.5M in Q1 2026—below the year-ago quarter. Operating margins remain exceptional at 47%, but the growth engine has clearly downshifted from the mid-20s percent rates of 2023–24 into high-single-digit territory and is now flirting with flat-to-negative. At 18.9x trailing earnings, 13.8x EV/EBITDA and a 4% FCF yield, the market is already baking in that deceleration; the valuation synthesis’s $650 composite therefore looks more like a reasonable central case than a stretch, implying roughly 24% upside if the franchise merely stabilizes rather than collapses.
What stands out most is the disconnect between the still-pristine profitability stack and the sudden loss of top-line momentum. Net margins of 42% on a PAH franchise that continues to generate >$3B of high-quality revenue should not trade at a discount to the broader market unless investors are convinced the patent and competitive wall is imminent. The zero-debt capital structure and $1.56B operating cash flow give management enormous optionality—either to return capital or to keep funding the xenotransplant and artificial-lung programs without balance-sheet stress. That optionality is currently being given away for free, or even treated as a liability, which is why the stock sits 14% off its highs despite fundamentals that remain, on any absolute basis, outstanding.
The strongest case against this read is straightforward and data-rich: sequential revenue has rolled over, recent YoY growth has compressed to the low double-digits and is heading lower, and the entire insider tape on 20 July 2026 is a wall of sales following option exercises. A smart skeptic will also note that the 16.9% historical CAGR is backward-looking; the forward run-rate implied by the last two quarters is closer to zero, which would make 19x earnings and 8x sales look rich for a single-franchise specialty name facing known competitive and LOE pressure. The moonshot narrative (xenotransplantation, organ printing) is capital-intensive, multi-year, and binary; until a pivotal clinical catalyst appears, it is pure dilution risk rather than free upside. If those arguments prove correct, the stock’s fair value is closer to $450–480 on a mid-teens multiple of flattening earnings, not $650.
I would flip to a decisive bearish stance on two consecutive quarters of revenue below $760M accompanied by net-margin compression below 35%, or on clear evidence that a major PAH competitor has taken material share. Conversely, any re-acceleration above $820M quarterly revenue or a credible mid-stage clinical win in the lung/organ programs would push me from modestly undervalued to aggressively so.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · four lenses
Revenue has scaled from $1.69B (2021) to $3.18B (2025), a ~17% CAGR, while net income nearly tripled from $476M to $1.33B and FCF grew from $477M to $1.04B. Gross margins remain elite at ~88-93% and operating margins have expanded from 33% to a sustained ~47-51% range, indicating strong operating leverage on the Tyvaso/Remodulin franchise. Earnings quality checks are clean: OCF/NI 1.13x, accruals -1.6% of assets, Beneish M -2.29, Altman Z 23.07 (fortress zone). Balance sheet is a fortress: $2.92B liquid cash, zero net debt, and self-funding operations. Share count has been effectively flat (47.3M in 2021 to 47.9M in 2025, 0.3% CAGR) with buybacks running 347% of SBC despite SBC at 4.6% of revenue - per-share value is protected. The one soft spot: gross margin has drifted down from 92.7% to 87.9% over five years (mix/COGS pressure worth watching), and insider activity shows 89 sales / 0 buys over 12 months (~$45M), heavily concentrated in CEO Rothblatt option-exercise-and-sell patterns - typical for a compensated executive but one-directional. Durability hinges on the pulmonary hypertension franchise concentration and pipeline execution (organ manufacturing, xenotransplant), which the raw data cannot confirm - route to verify.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Revenue concentration by product (Tyvaso DPI vs Remodulin vs Orenitram) and any near-term LOE/generic threats
- R&D pipeline progress on organ manufacturing / xenotransplant and cash commitments
- Reason for gross margin compression from 92.7% to 87.9% (mix shift, royalty terms, manufacturing scale-up?)
- 10b5-1 plan details behind Rothblatt sales - programmatic vs discretionary
- Any contingent liabilities or legal/IP disputes not visible in headline financials
The e2e synthesis lands at a composite FV of $587.34 (signal-adjusted $650.49), implying ~12-24% upside from $525.82. The methods bracket sensibly: DCF at $543.76 is closest to price and most credible; EPV floor at $331.08 shows the no-growth downside (~37% below spot, a real floor risk); the anchored PE at $930.76 is a runaway output I discount heavily - it implies a multiple the market has never sustainably granted a single-franchise PAH name and should not anchor the read. Stripping the PE outlier, a defensible deserved value sits in the $540-600 range, putting the current price at roughly a 5-12% discount. The quality lens (score 74, strong) supports the higher end of that band - clean accounting, negligible dilution, fortress balance sheet justify a premium multiple. But the bear case has teeth: the price already embeds continued Tyvaso/Remodulin franchise durability, and the moonshot optionality (xenotransplant, artificial lung) is not something I want to pay for today. Net-net, this looks like a decent business at a mildly favorable price - a modest margin of safety, not a screaming bargain.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Tyvaso DPI script trends and payer coverage vs Liquidia's YUTREPIA launch trajectory
- Management commentary on the ~5pt gross-margin fade - mix, pricing, or COGS?
- Capex guidance for xenotransplant/artificial lung - how much FCF gets consumed by moonshots
- Any guidance on Remodulin/Orenitram generic erosion cadence
The macro backdrop is stressed (VIX in the top percentile, S&P off its highs, 10y at 4.61%), but UTHR's 0.58 beta and healthcare-specialty profile make it a natural place to hide, not a place to dump. Risk-off tapes punish high-beta story stocks with no cash flow; UTHR generates cash, trades in a defensive sector, and its narrative is 'mission-driven-bet' with only moderate intensity and medium cult - the kind of name that gets ignored rather than crushed in a stress regime. Net macro pressure on THIS ticker is mild. On the name-specific side, the tape is genuinely mixed. The Lancet publication of ADVANCE OUTCOMES for ralinepag is a legitimate narrative tailwind - peer-reviewed validation of the next-gen PAH asset directly rebuts the bear thesis that the core franchise is running out of runway. Against that, CEO Rothblatt's $5M option exercise-and-sell, even under a 10b5-1 plan and only 1% of her stake, feeds the 'moonshots are science fiction' bear framing at the margin. Analyst tone and target revisions were not provided, so conviction is capped. Overall the non-fundamental pressure is close to neutral with a slight positive tilt from the ralinepag data offsetting a soft macro drag.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Analyst target revisions in the 2 weeks post-Lancet publication - do PTs move up on ralinepag data
- Whether specialty pharma / defensive healthcare is actually catching rotation flow or being sold with the tape
- Follow-on news flow on xeno-organ or artificial lung programs - a setback would compress the narrative premium
- VIX mean-reversion; a fade from 20+ would relax the mild macro drag on any equity
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