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AGING Analysis Report
Jul 30, 2026
24 days ago · 100% complete
NOT DEPENDABLE This report predates a filing — its financial basis has been replaced.
Report generated: Jul 30, 2026 · Filing on record since: Aug 19, 2026 · 19 days after
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for V.F. Corporation (VFC) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Low · Gem Score -44 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality -15 · Value -68 · Sentiment -76 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $9.88 vs $15.04 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

V.F. Corporation

VFC NYSE
Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Manufacturing
Denver, CO 80202, United States vfc.com Updated Jul 30, 2:22pm
Price
$15.06
Market Cap
$5.9B
Employees
14,560
Beta
0.97
Avg Volume
7,030,611
Last Dividend
$0.36
CEO
Mr. Bracken P. Darrell

V.F. Corporation is a global branded apparel and footwear company headquartered in Denver, Colorado. The company designs, procures, markets, and distributes lifestyle apparel, footwear, and accessories for men, women, and children across the Americas, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific region. Its portfolio is organized into three primary segments: Outdoor, Active, and Work, each centered on distinct consumer uses and lifestyle categories. Through brands such as The North Face, Timberland, Vans, Dickies, JanSport, Kipling, Napapijri, Eastpak, Smartwool, Icebreaker, and Altra, V.F. Corporation participates in outdoor performance gear, action sports and streetwear, workwear, backpacks, luggage, and related accessories markets. The company reaches consumers via a mix of wholesale channels, including specialty and department stores, national chains, and partnership stores, as well as a broad direct-to-consumer network of owned retail stores, brand e-commerce sites, concession locations, and other digital platforms. Founded in 1899 and operating today as a diversified brand management platform, V.F. Corporation plays a significant role in global apparel and footwear supply chains and lifestyle consumer markets.

Runs with full report Generated: Jul 30, 2026 2:37pm
Price Overview
Price at report time
$15.04
as of Jul 30, 2:39pm (24d ago)
Change · Jul 30
-0.04 (-0.30%)
Day Range
$14.66 – $15.19
52-Week Range
$11.11 – $22.27
50-Day MA
$16.85
200-Day MA
$17.65
Volume
2,311,276.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 24d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 391,515,399.00
Float 391,559,569.00
Free Float 100.0%
High free float — 100.0% of shares trade freely, ~-0% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 2:42pm (24d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 2:42pm (24d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Jul 30, 2026 2:36pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
23.52
Stock Price: $15.06
EPS (Diluted): 0.64
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
3.22
Stock Price: $15.06
Total Equity: $1.85B
Shares: 395,875,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
10.06
Market Cap: $5.92B
Total Debt: $3.53B
Cash: $823.94M
EBITDA: $857.10M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$8.6B
Market Cap: $5.92B
Total Debt: $3.53B
Cash: $823.94M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
54.8%
Gross Profit: $5.26B
Revenue: $9.61B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
6.0%
Operating Income: $576.57M
Revenue: $9.61B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
2.7%
Net Income: $254.92M
Revenue: $9.61B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
13.8%
Net Income: $254.92M
Total Equity: $1.85B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
9.5%
Operating Income: $576.57M
Tax Rate: 25.3%
Equity: $1.85B
Total Debt: $3.53B
Cash: $823.94M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.84
Current Assets: $4.01B
Current Liabilities: $2.18B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
1.91
Short-Term Debt: $10.14M
Long-Term Debt: $3.52B
Total Debt: $3.53B
Total Equity: $1.85B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$24.26
Revenue: $9.61B
Shares: 395,875,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$4.67
Total Equity: $1.85B
Shares: 395,875,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$1.70
Operating CF: $671.27M
CapEx: $0.00
Shares: 395,875,000
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
2.4%
Last Dividend: $0.36
Stock Price: $15.06
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
55.2%
Dividends Paid: -$140.74M
Net Income: $254.92M
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jul 30, 2026 2:36pm
Compares VFC against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 2:42pm (24d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Revenue $11.8B $11.6B $10.5B $9.5B $9.6B
Cost of Revenue $5.4B $5.5B $5.0B $4.4B $4.3B
Gross Profit $6.5B $6.1B $5.4B $5.1B $5.3B
Operating Expenses $4.8B $5.8B $5.5B $4.8B $4.7B
Operating Income $1.6B $327.7M -$34.1M $303.8M $576.6M
Net Income $1.4B $118.6M -$968.9M -$189.7M $254.9M
EBITDA $1.9B $590.0M $285.1M $563.4M $857.1M
EPS $3.55 $0.31 $-2.49 $-0.49 $0.65
EPS (Diluted) $3.53 $0.31 $-2.49 $-0.48 $0.64
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 2:23pm (24d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Cash & Equivalents $1.3B $814.9M $674.6M $429.4M $823.9M
Total Current Assets $4.6B $5.2B $4.2B $3.8B $4.0B
Total Assets $13.3B $14.0B $11.6B $9.4B $9.3B
Current Liabilities $3.3B $3.5B $3.5B $2.7B $2.2B
Long-Term Debt $4.6B $5.7B $4.7B $3.4B $3.5B
Total Liabilities $9.8B $11.1B $10.0B $7.9B $7.4B
Total Equity $3.5B $2.9B $1.7B $1.5B $1.8B
Retained Earnings $443.5M $57.1M -$974.6M -$1.2B -$928.8M
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 2:42pm (24d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Operating Cash Flow $864.3M -$655.8M $1.0B $465.2M $671.3M
Capital Expenditure
Free Cash Flow
Acquisitions (net) $3.8M $0 $0
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) -$504.2M $1.6B -$908.2M -$1.8B -$582.8M
Dividends Paid -$773.2M -$702.8M -$303.1M -$140.2M -$140.7M
Stock Buybacks -$350.0M $0 $0
Net Change in Cash $425.9M -$460.8M -$139.4M -$245.5M $400.9M
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 2:42pm (24d ago)
Metric 2023 2024 2025 2026
Revenue Growth -1.9% -10.0% -9.1% +1.1%
Gross Profit Growth -5.6% -10.8% -6.5% +3.5%
Operating Income Growth -79.9% -110.4% +991.8% +89.8%
Net Income Growth -91.4% -917.0% +80.4% +234.4%
EBITDA Growth -68.9% -51.7% +97.6% +52.1%
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jul 23, 2026 9:58pm (30d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-06-10 $0.09
2026-03-10 $0.09
2025-12-10 $0.09
2025-09-10 $0.09
2025-06-10 $0.09
2025-03-10 $0.09
2024-12-10 $0.09
2024-09-10 $0.09
2024-06-10 $0.09
2024-03-08 $0.09
2023-12-08 $0.09
2023-09-08 $0.30
2023-06-09 $0.30
2023-03-09 $0.30
2022-12-09 $0.51
2022-09-09 $0.50
2022-06-09 $0.50
2022-03-09 $0.50
2021-12-09 $0.50
2021-09-09 $0.49
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable not yet run 14 computed · 6 not applicable · 4 not yet run
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for VFC — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-07-30 14:42:12
Verdict Fairly valued to modestly undervalued at $15 — synthesis's $9.88 DCF ignores the FY26 operating inflection; fair value $16-19 with asymmetric upside if Vans stabilizes, downside protected by $671M OCF and improving balance sheet.

The raw numbers tell a more mixed story than the synthesis "overvalued" verdict suggests. FY2026 (ending March 2026) delivered $9.61B revenue vs $9.50B prior — the first year of growth after three years of decline from $11.84B (FY22). More importantly, operating income swung to $576.6M from $303.8M, and net income flipped to +$254.9M from -$189.7M. Operating margin recovered to 6.0% from 3.2%. Gross margin ticked up to 54.8%. Operating cash flow of $671M against a $5.92B market cap is a 11.3% OCF yield — not distressed. The Q4 (March 2026) print showing a -$119M loss looks ugly in isolation but Q4 is seasonally the weakest and prior-year Q4 was -$150M, so it's actually a $31M improvement YoY. The trajectory is bending the right way, not deteriorating.

Where I push back on the synthesis: a $9.88 DCF fair value implies you believe FY26's $255M net income and $576M operating income are near a ceiling, not a way-station. That's a strong claim on a business generating $671M OCF with gross margins still north of 54%. EV/EBITDA of 10.1x and EV/Sales of 0.9x are not obviously expensive for a branded apparel portfolio — Tapestry trades richer, Levi's similar, Hanes cheaper but structurally worse. The P/E of 23.5x is optically high only because earnings are depressed; on FY22-normalized earnings power ($1.39B), this trades at ~4x. The synthesis is essentially triangulating three DCFs off a depressed base and calling the recovery premium overvaluation — which is circular when the whole thesis IS the recovery.

The contrarian case against my more constructive read is real, though. Debt/equity at 1.9x on $3.53B total debt against $824M cash means net debt of $2.7B — that's ~29% of enterprise value and constrains error tolerance. Revenue CAGR is still -4.2% over five years; the Vans brand (roughly a third of revenue historically) remains in decline per most channel checks, and the "recent revenue YoY" of +1.1% could be lapping easy comps rather than genuine reacceleration. The FCF CAGR of -18.7% is worse than the revenue trajectory, suggesting working capital and capex leakage. The insider "P-Purchase" of 30,000 shares in June 2026 is notable but a single 30K-share buy at ~$15 is a $450K signal — meaningful but not table-pounding conviction from insiders sitting on much larger equity stakes. The F-InKind transactions are tax withholding, not selling, so they're neutral noise. The dividend at 2.4% yield with 55% payout ratio on thin earnings is a coverage risk if FY27 disappoints.

I dissent partially with the synthesis. The models are anchoring too heavily on a DCF that mechanically extrapolates recent weakness, and the narrative layer's "$5 of story premium" claim is unfalsifiable — you could equally argue $5 of the price is discount for balance sheet risk that's already improving. The right read is fairly-valued-to-modestly-undervalued around $15, with fair value in the $16-19 range if you give any credit to the FY26 operating inflection and normalize toward $400-500M sustainable net income (implying 12-15x forward P/E on recovering earnings). This is not a $9.88 stock unless you believe operating margins collapse back below 4% — and Q3 2025's 10.5% margin and the full-year 6% argue against that. It's also not a $25 stock until Vans stabilizes and net debt drops below $2B. The insider buying, accelerating quarterly trend, and swing to GAAP profitability are three concordant signals the models are underweighting relative to the stale bearish CAGR. I'd take a starter position here with add-points at $12 and trim points at $19, and I'd revisit hard after the next two quarters to see if the operating margin recovery holds outside of seasonally strong Q2/Q3.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-07-30 14:42:30
Verdict I disagree with Opus’s “modestly undervalued” call — at $15 VFC looks fully priced to slightly overvalued, with fair value closer to $12-14 unless revenue growth becomes meaningfully better than the current ~1% and margins hold above 6%.

What stands out to me is not the FY26 profit recovery by itself, but how little top-line evidence there is that the franchise has truly reaccelerated. Revenue rose just 1.1% in FY26 to $9.61B after falling from $11.84B in FY22 and $11.61B in FY23, so this is still a materially smaller business than it was three to four years ago. The margin rebound is real: operating income improved to $576.6M from $303.8M and net income swung to $254.9M from a $189.7M loss. But the quality of that recovery matters. A 6.0% operating margin and 2.7% net margin are still thin for a branded apparel portfolio carrying $3.53B of debt and only $1.85B of equity. On the balance sheet, debt/equity of 1.9x is not an academic concern; it means the turnaround must keep working because there is not much room for another earnings relapse. At $15, the stock is not priced like a broken retailer, but neither is the business producing returns that justify much optimism yet.

The quarterly pattern reinforces that conclusion. Yes, the latest March quarter loss improved from -$150.8M to -$119.3M year over year, and the December and September quarters were stronger than the prior year. But the annual earnings recovery leaned heavily on the middle two quarters: September 2025 delivered $189.8M and December 2025 $300.8M, while June and March still lost a combined $235.7M. That is a business with seasonal profit concentration and limited buffer, not a cleanly normalized earner. Gross margin at 54.8% is healthy, but the translation to operating profit remains mediocre relative to history: FY22 produced $1.63B of operating income on $11.84B of revenue, versus just $576.6M on $9.61B now. The gap is too large to hand-wave away as merely “depressed earnings.” The market is already capitalizing this at 23.5x current earnings, 3.2x book, and about 10x EBITDA; those are survivable multiples for a stable compounder, but this is still a leveraged restructuring story with a shrinking multi-year revenue base.

I disagree with Opus’s core claim that the stock is “fairly valued to modestly undervalued at $15” with fair value of $16-19. The Delvantic AI Findings concludes the DCF “ignores the FY26 operating inflection”; I think that gives too much credit to one year of margin repair without sufficient revenue proof. A business that has gone from $11.84B of sales to $9.61B and from $1.39B of net income in FY22 to $254.9M in FY26 does not deserve a recovery multiple on normalized peak earnings. Opus argues the 23.5x P/E is “optically high only because earnings are depressed” and cites FY22-normalized earnings power of $1.39B, implying roughly 4x normalized P/E. I reject that framing outright. FY22 is not a conservative normalization anchor; it is an outlier peak in both profitability and scale, and using it risks valuing the stock on a business that no longer exists in its prior form. If sustainable earnings were truly headed toward Opus’s $400-500M range soon, I could support the current price; but the available data show only $254.9M net income after a long erosion, which is not enough evidence.

I do agree with Opus on a few specific points. They are right that the simple “overvalued because DCF says $9.88” conclusion is too mechanical, and they are right that the March quarter loss is less alarming than it looks in isolation because it did improve year over year. I also agree that the June insider purchase of 30,000 shares is directionally positive and that the in-kind transactions are noise. But I disagree with the stronger inference they draw from “three concordant signals” of insider buying, accelerating quarterly trend, and GAAP profitability. One insider purchase worth roughly $450K is encouraging, not decisive. “Accelerating” quarterly revenue in this case means moving from very weak comparisons to near-flat growth, not a convincing demand resurgence. And GAAP profitability of $254.9M on a $5.9B equity value is not obviously cheap when leverage is high and payout ratio is already 55% on still-fragile earnings. Opus says “this is not a $9.88 stock unless you believe operating margins collapse back below 4%.” I think that is too binary; this can easily be a $10-13 stock even with margins around 5-6% if revenue stays stuck near $9.5-9.8B and deleveraging is slow.

A careful skeptic of both my view and Opus’s would say we are both overfitting thin public numbers to a brand-turnaround narrative without segment detail. They would argue the gross margin/OCF recovery to $671.3M may be the first visible sign that the business has already been reset, and that EV/revenue below 1x for brands with durable shelf space could prove cheap if execution holds. They would also argue the opposite: that operating cash flow can flatter a restructuring in one year, and that book equity of $1.85B against $3.53B debt leaves little margin of safety if the next downturn hits before brand momentum is restored. That skeptic is right to demand more evidence. My read today is that the burden of proof still sits with the bull case, not the bear case.

Grok Reading
Grok (xAI) reads the identical raw briefing blind — one of the Big-3 independent readings — and commits to its own verdict.
No Grok reading yet for VFC — it's generated by the pipeline (grok-critique step) alongside the other Big-3 seats, when a report is run on this ticker.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 5.0; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 8.0
undervalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +3.0 vs panel
GPT gpt-5.4 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ -3.0 vs panel
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-07-30 14:44:13
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Pass - revisit sub-$11 8/10
VFC is a fragile turnaround trading at a 50% premium to fair value right as the story cracks - this is a pass, not a buy.
The cruxPrice already discounts a successful Vans-and-margin recovery that today's CFO exit and Q1 miss just called into question.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from VFC's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionStable Share Count
Earnings QualityGood Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
-15
Mixed
edge √Σ 87 · risk √Σ 102 · conf 6/10

VFC has been through a severe operational deterioration: revenue fell from $11.84B in 2022 to $9.50B in 2025 (down ~20%), operating margin collapsed from 13.8% to negative territory, and the company posted cumulative net losses of roughly $1.16B across 2023-2025. FY2026 shows a tentative bounce - revenue back up to $9.61B, gross margin recovered to 54.8%, operating margin to 6.0%, net income back to $255M, and FCF of $671M. This is a real inflection, but 6% operating margin is still well below the ~14% the business earned pre-collapse, and the top line has not resumed growth in any meaningful way.

Strengths 4
m55
FCF generation preserved through the trough
Even in the worst year (2024, net loss of $969M) FCF was positive at $1.01B, and 2026 FCF of $671M covers interest and provides some deleveraging capacity. The business is self-funding.
m45
Clean earnings quality signals
Accruals -3.8% of assets, Beneish M -2.64, buyback/SBC ratio 94.8%, diluted share CAGR only 0.2%. No manipulation flags and no per-share value erosion via dilution.
m40
FY2026 inflection is real
Gross margin recovered to 54.8% (highest in the window), operating margin to 6.0%, net income back to positive $255M. Suggests turnaround under new management is gaining traction.
m30
Director open-market buy
Carucci purchased 30K shares at $515K in June 2026 - a real P-code buy, not a grant. Small in absolute terms but directionally supportive alongside a heavily A/F-coded tape.
Concerns 3
m70
Balance sheet is a constraint
Net debt of $2.71B against only $824M liquid cash and $671M annual FCF. Altman Z of 1.81 sits in the grey zone. Debt service is manageable at current FCF but leaves little cushion if the recovery stalls.
m65
Multi-year revenue and margin destruction
Revenue down ~19% from $11.84B (2022) to $9.61B (2026); operating margin collapsed from 13.8% to a nadir of -0.3% before recovering to 6.0%. This is not a blip - it is a structural brand and portfolio problem (Vans in particular has been widely reported as weak).
m35
Durability of brand portfolio uncertain
The four-year decline suggests weakened moat in key brands. FY2026 stabilization at $9.61B revenue does not yet demonstrate the pricing power or organic growth that would confirm brand health.
This is a classic mature-earner in the middle of a painful turnaround. The forensics are clean - no dilution games, no accruals manipulation, no cash-flow smoke and mirrors - and FY2026 is a genuine inflection with margin and net income both recovering. But I cannot ignore that revenue is still down a fifth from 2022, operating margin is less than half its prior level, and $2.71B net debt against a grey-zone Altman Z means the balance sheet is doing the worrying. The business is not broken, but it is not yet healed either. Solid earnings integrity earns it out of the danger zone; unfinished operational recovery keeps it firmly in Mixed.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • Debt maturity schedule and covenants - how much of the $3.5B+ gross debt comes due in the next 24 months
  • Vans segment revenue and margin trajectory - is the biggest problem brand actually stabilizing?
  • Status of Supreme divestiture proceeds and any further planned asset sales for deleveraging
  • Dividend policy - historically a large cash outflow; whether the reduced dividend is preserved through the turnaround
  • Inventory levels and channel health - apparel margin recoveries often mask promotional pressure
  • Management commentary on FY2027 operating margin bridge back toward historical ~12-14%
Valuation / Mispricing
-68
Rich
edge √Σ 25 · risk √Σ 107 · conf 6/10
Price $15.04 vs composite deserved ~$10.05, roughly 50% premium - the opposite of a margin of safety. attractive below $11.00

The e2e composite pins fair value at $9.88 with a signal-adjusted $10.05, implying roughly -33% downside from the $15.04 price. The EPV floor of $6.57 reflects the depressed current earnings power, while the anchored-PE of $13.19 gives credit for a normalized multiple - and even that sits ~12% below today's quote. Earnings quality is clean, so no haircut is warranted, but that only means the deserved value stands as calculated - it doesn't create hidden value. The Mixed quality grade (revenue still down ~20% from 2022, operating margin halved, $2.71B net debt) argues against paying a premium multiple on trough earnings. What's priced in: a credible margin recovery plus reacceleration of Vans and North Face. That's the bull case, not the base case, and the market is already extending credit for it. Margin of safety here is negative - you're paying ~50% above the composite and ~14% above the most generous anchored method.

Cheap signals 1
m25
Iconic brand portfolio underpins deserved value
North Face and Timberland provide real pricing power and asset value, which is why anchored-PE ($13.19) is well above EPV - but still not above price.
Rich / priced-in 4
m68
Price ~50% above composite fair value
Signal-adjusted FV $10.05 vs $15.04 price implies -33% downside. Even the friendlier anchored-PE at $13.19 sits below spot.
m60
EPV floor of $6.57 shows earnings power gap
Current earnings power supports only ~$6.57/share; the $15 quote requires believing normalized earnings return quickly and durably.
m45
Turnaround optionality already in the tape
Fallen-angel narrative plus FY2026 inflection have re-rated the stock; the easy multiple expansion off the bottom appears spent.
m35
$2.71B net debt amplifies equity risk
Leverage on a still-recovering EBIT stream means small execution slips compress equity value faster than the multiple suggests.
I can't call this cheap. At $15 I'm paying above every method in the stack except a heroic bull case, and I'm doing it on trough earnings with real leverage. The business may well be turning, but the price already assumes it. I'd want the stock closer to $11 - a ~10% discount to anchored-PE and closer to composite - before the risk/reward tips. Until then this is a Rich fairly-priced turnaround, not a value setup.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • FY2026 operating margin trajectory and whether the inflection is sustaining into H2
  • Vans revenue stabilization vs continued decline in latest quarter
  • Net debt reduction pace and any refinancing terms
  • Wholesale channel inventory health and DTC mix progression
General Sentiment
-76
Strong Headwind
tail √Σ 36 · head √Σ 136 · conf 8/10

VFC is getting hit by a live, stock-specific negative catalyst: Q1 2027 missed, Vans wholesale weakness re-surfaced, and the CFO is departing - all landing on a day the Fed spooked equities and the VIX pushed above 20. For a fallen-angel turnaround name, CFO exit is exactly the kind of headline that cracks a 'prove-me' story, and the tape offers no cover: shares 'nosedived' intraday per the wires. The narrative was already moderate-intensity, moderate-durability with low cult - it has no fanbase to absorb a shock like this. Analyst tone into the print was cautious and the raised full-year guide is being ignored in favor of the loss and the CFO news, which tells you the market is in 'sell first' mode on this name. With beta near 1 and a consumer-cyclical, wholesale-exposed profile, a risk-off, high-rate tape amplifies the pressure rather than muting it - discretionary apparel is exactly where macro headwinds bite. Net: the non-fundamental pressure is decisively negative today, and the freshness of the catalyst means it likely persists for weeks as estimates and target prices get marked.

Tailwinds 2
m30
Raised full-year revenue guide
Management lifted FY27 sales outlook and cited lower net debt and margin gains - a modest offset that could seed a relief bid once the CFO headline is digested, but not enough to arrest today's pressure.
m20
Recent momentum shift
Short-term trend had turned mildly positive versus the long-term decline, hinting some sentiment was pre-positioning for a turn - now being reset.
Headwinds 4
m88
CFO departure on a miss day
Losing the CFO the same session as a Q1 loss and Vans disappointment is a credibility hit for a turnaround story - exactly the kind of event that de-rates fallen-angel names regardless of the guide raise.
m75
Narrative cracking in real time
The bull case rests on margin recovery and Vans stabilization; today's print undercut both. Moderate durability and low cult mean there is no believer base to defend the story on a bad day.
m55
Risk-off tape into a cyclical wholesaler
VIX above 20, S&P off its highs, and a hawkish Fed hold - discretionary apparel with wholesale exposure and beta ~1 gets sold harder than the index in this regime.
m45
Rates/valuation backdrop
10y at 4.61% and market PE 26 pressures consumer-cyclical turnarounds where the equity value is largely optionality on future cash flows.
This is a Strong Headwind read. A fallen-angel turnaround with a low cult coefficient just took a CFO exit on an earnings miss into a risk-off Fed day - that is the exact stack of pressures that dominates a name's tape for weeks. The guide raise is a real counterweight but nowhere near enough to offset the credibility hit today. I would expect continued selling pressure and negative revisions before any believable stabilization.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Analyst target revisions and estimate cuts in the 48-72 hours post-print
  • Who is named interim/permanent CFO and the market's read on continuity
  • Vans comp trajectory commentary in follow-up notes
  • Whether VIX cools back under 18 and consumer discretionary rotation resumes
  • Insider buying or a buyback signal to defend the tape
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
not run

This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.

The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.562 · 9b2927c4 · 2026-08-22 16:52:06