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AGING Analysis Report
Jun 1, 2026
25 days ago · 93% complete · +4 refreshed

XPeng Inc.

XPEV NYSE Categories PDF
Consumer Cyclical · Auto - Manufacturers
Guangzhou, 510640, China IPO 2020 heyxpeng.com Updated Jun 26, 5:47pm
Price
$12.09
Market Cap
$11.5B
Employees
15,364
Beta
1.08
Avg Volume
6,687,006
CEO
Xiaopeng He
Business Description

Operating within the People's Republic of China, XPeng Inc. is an innovator in the electric vehicle (EV) sector, focusing on the creation and sale of intelligent, connected automobiles. It handles the entire process from conceptualization to market distribution. Its diverse lineup caters to various consumer needs, featuring SUV models like the G3 and G3i, the P7 performance-oriented sports sedan, and the P5, designed as a family-friendly sedan. Beyond manufacturing vehicles, XPeng supports its customers with a comprehensive ecosystem of services. These encompass sales and financial solutions (including contracts, leasing, and loan referrals), vehicle upkeep (maintenance and super charging), and a range of digital and convenience offerings such as insurance agency, ride-hailing, technical assistance, and music subscriptions. The company was established in 2015, with its headquarters located in Guangzhou, China.

Business History
Generated: Jun 1, 2026 8:20pm
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 8:01am (just now)
$12.09
-0.11 (-0.86%)
Day Range
$11.77 – $12.24
52-Week Range
$11.78 – $28.24
50-Day MA
$15.75
200-Day MA
$19.05
Volume
1,107.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $17.00
Consensus $21.55
High $25.20
(41 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 950,007,389.00
Float 708,438,853.00
Free Float 74.6%
Normal free float — 74.6% of shares trade freely, ~25.4% held by insiders/institutions
Healthy float typical of established companies. Good liquidity for entering and exiting positions without major price impact.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 8:01am (just now)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 5:47pm (14h ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 1, 2026 8:19pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
CALC
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
-5.08
Stock Price: $12.09
EPS (Diluted): -2.38
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
2.22
Stock Price: $12.09
Total Equity: $30.37B
Shares: 475,997,500
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
-51.97
Market Cap: $11.48B
Total Debt: $14.07B
Cash: $17.33B
EBITDA: $2.26B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$69.7B
Market Cap: $11.48B
Total Debt: $14.07B
Cash: $17.33B
P/S Ratio (Price per dollar of revenue)
API
Stock Price / Revenue Per Share
0.90
Stock Price: $12.09
Revenue: $74.63B
Shares: 475,997,500
EV/Sales (Total value vs revenue — works when P/E can't)
API
0.93
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
18.9%
Gross Profit: $14.08B
Revenue: $74.63B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
-5.8%
Operating Income: -$4.30B
Revenue: $74.63B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
-1.5%
Net Income: -$1.11B
Revenue: $74.63B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
-7.6%
Net Income: -$1.11B
Total Equity: $30.37B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
-6.4%
Operating Income: -$4.30B
Tax Rate: -1.2%
Equity: $30.37B
Total Debt: $14.07B
Cash: $17.33B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.09
Current Assets: $63.25B
Current Liabilities: $58.11B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.46
Short-Term Debt: $7.31B
Long-Term Debt: $6.76B
Total Debt: $14.07B
Total Equity: $30.37B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$156.79
Revenue: $74.63B
Shares: 475,997,500
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$63.80
Total Equity: $30.37B
Shares: 475,997,500
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$10.32
Operating CF: $8.26B
CapEx: -$3.35B
Shares: 475,997,500
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.0%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $12.09
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: -$1.11B
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 1, 2026 8:19pm
Compares XPEV against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · three lenses
The "final boss" read — Opus reviews every forensic module + the full e2e analysis · 2026-06-02 15:44:14
Legacy single-score read — re-run the extended pipeline to get the two-lens split.
Genuine operational inflection masked by a confusing balance sheet readout — the cash story needs verification before this becomes a buy.
-14 Hold / Neutral

The operating trajectory is real and improving fast: revenue scaled from $20.99B (2021) to $74.63B (2025), gross margin expanded from 12.5% → 18.9%, operating margin compressed losses from -31.3% → -5.8%, and 2025 swung to positive FCF of $4.91B from -$4.44B the prior year. Net loss narrowed to -$1.11B on $74.6B revenue. That is a textbook pre-profit growth inflection — the bear thesis of 'cash-bleeding EV maker' is stale as of the latest print. Classification as pre_profit_growth with Reasonable Premium valuation looks defensible IF the cash figures hold.

BUT the forensic picture has two giant unresolved tensions. First, the liquidity module shows $38.93B liquid cash against a $16.3B market cap (239% of mktcap) — that is extraordinary and almost certainly reflects RMB-denominated balance sheet items against a USD market cap, or includes restricted cash/customer deposits typical of Chinese EV makers. The revenue figures are clearly in RMB ($74.63B revenue for a company with ~400k vehicle deliveries cannot be USD), so the cash is likely RMB too — meaning real net cash is closer to ~$3.5B USD, still solid but not the 'fortress' the module claims. Second, the diluted share count shows -12.8% CAGR with a step from 945.7M (2024) to 476.0M (2025) — that is almost certainly an ADR ratio change or reverse split, NOT a buyback. The 'net buyer of its own stock' framing is wrong. Altman Z of 0.2 (distress) clashes with the cash narrative — another sign the modules are reading mixed-unit data.

The insider tape shows zero open-market P or S transactions — only M-exempt option exercises and awards (the 28.5M share entry for He Xiaopeng is almost certainly a beneficial ownership disclosure, not a purchase). No directional signal. AI pipeline flags Q1 2026 margin reverting to -13.7% which would break the turnaround — that's the real risk: 2025's inflection may have been driven by one-time deliveries or subsidies and is not yet structural.

Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 1, 2026 8:24:21 pm

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
Not applicable for Pre Profit Growth companies
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
Not applicable for Pre Profit Growth companies
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
Not applicable for Pre Profit Growth companies
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
Not applicable for Pre Profit Growth companies
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Pre Profit Growth companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Pre Profit Growth companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
Not applicable for Pre Profit Growth companies
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 5:47pm (14h ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $21.0B $26.9B $30.7B $40.9B $74.6B
Cost of Revenue $18.4B $23.8B $30.2B $35.0B $60.6B
Gross Profit $2.6B $3.1B $451.2M $5.8B $14.1B
Operating Expenses $9.2B $11.8B $11.3B $12.5B $18.4B
Operating Income -$6.6B -$8.7B -$10.9B -$6.7B -$4.3B
Net Income -$4.9B -$9.1B -$10.4B -$5.8B -$1.1B
EBITDA -$3.9B -$7.6B -$8.0B -$2.9B $2.3B
EPS $-5.92 $-10.68 $-11.92 $-6.12 $-2.38
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 5:47pm (14h ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $11.0B $14.6B $21.1B $18.6B $17.3B
Total Current Assets $48.8B $43.5B $54.5B $49.7B $63.3B
Total Assets $65.7B $71.5B $84.2B $82.7B $103.2B
Current Liabilities $18.0B $24.1B $36.1B $39.9B $58.1B
Long-Term Debt $3.4B $6.4B $6.9B $7.0B $6.8B
Total Liabilities $23.5B $34.6B $47.8B $51.4B $72.8B
Total Equity $42.1B $36.9B $36.3B $31.3B $30.4B
Retained Earnings -$16.2B -$25.3B -$35.8B -$41.5B -$42.8B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 5:47pm (14h ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow -$1.1B -$8.2B $956.2M -$2.0B $8.3B
Capital Expenditure -$4.3B -$4.7B -$2.3B -$2.4B -$3.3B
Free Cash Flow -$5.4B -$12.9B -$1.4B -$4.4B $4.9B
Acquisitions (net) -$2.0B $0 $684.2M $0 $0
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Net Change in Cash -$19.9B $3.1B $9.6B -$2.6B $1.7B
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 5:47pm (14h ago)
Metric 2025 2026 2027 2028
Revenue $77.5B
$76.1B – $78.9B
$93.8B
$91.2B – $97.3B
$119.5B
$104.9B – $144.1B
$137.6B
$117.7B – $162.6B
EBITDA -$12.0B
-$12.2B – -$11.7B
-$14.5B
-$15.0B – -$14.1B
-$18.5B
-$22.3B – -$16.2B
-$21.2B
-$25.1B – -$18.2B
Net Income -$476.8M
-$527.5M – -$426.1M
-$321.0M
-$737.2M – $95.1M
$1.5B
-$1.2B – $4.3B
$1.4B
$546.3M – $2.2B
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 26, 2026 5:47pm (14h ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +28.0% +14.2% +33.2% +82.6%
Gross Profit Growth +17.8% -85.4% +1,195.7% +140.8%
Operating Income Growth -32.3% -25.1% +38.9% +35.5%
Net Income Growth -88.0% -13.5% +44.2% +80.9%
EBITDA Growth -92.1% -5.8% +63.7% +177.6%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-04-01 Wang Fengying M-Exempt 600,000.00 $0.00 $0
2026-04-01 Wang Fengying M-Exempt 600,000.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Yang Donghao 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Yang Donghao 18,144.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Foo Jixun 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Chen Yudong 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 He Xiaopeng 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 He Xiaopeng 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 He Xiaopeng 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 He Xiaopeng 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 He Xiaopeng 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 He Xiaopeng 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 He Xiaopeng 28,506,786.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Wang Fengying 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Wang Fengying 1,200,000.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Wu Jiaming 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Wu Jiaming 87,116.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Gu Brian Hongdi 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Gu Brian Hongdi 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-18 Gu Brian Hongdi 1,000,000.00 $0.00 $0
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for XPEV — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-01 20:24:59
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict Fairly valued pending Q2 2026 confirmation — Q1 2026's -13.7% margin breaks the turnaround narrative

The raw numbers tell a cleaner story than the model chorus suggests, but with a critical caveat the synthesis glosses over: the Q1 2026 print is ugly. Revenue dropped to $12.95B from $21.95B in Q4 2025 — a 41% sequential collapse — and net income swung from +$378M to -$1.77B, a -13.7% margin, the worst since Q3 2024. Yes, Q1 is seasonally weak in Chinese EVs (Lunar New Year, post-subsidy hangover), but the magnitude here erases the entire 2025 margin improvement narrative in a single quarter. The synthesis verdict of "Reasonable Premium / actually CHEAP" was clearly written against the 2025 trajectory and either ignored or had not yet ingested the Q1 2026 datapoint showing the inflection is not yet durable.

That said, the structural improvement is real. Annual 2025 gross profit of $14.08B on $74.63B revenue (18.9% GM) versus 2023's $451M gross on $30.68B (1.5% GM) is a genuine manufacturing scale story, not narrative. Operating loss narrowed from -$10.89B (2023) to -$4.30B (2025) while revenue 2.4x'd. Operating cash flow of $8.26B and FCF of $4.91B against a $16.3B market cap is striking — if sustainable, this is a ~3x P/FCF, which is absurd for a growing manufacturer. The $24B cash pile exceeds market cap, meaning EV is roughly negative or trivially positive depending on debt (undisclosed here, which is a meaningful gap — Chinese EV makers typically carry $5-10B in debt, and the missing total-debt line is a real analytical hole). At 0.9x P/S and ~1.1x EV/Revenue, the market is not pricing a Tesla-of-China outcome; it's pricing survival with mediocre terminal margins.

The contrarian case the models underweight: Q1 2026's -13.7% margin is not just seasonality. BYD launched aggressive price cuts in early 2026, Tesla refreshed Model Y in China, and Xiaomi's SU7 is taking premium share precisely where XPeng's P7/G9 compete. The $4.91B FCF for 2025 is heavily working-capital-flattered — operating CF of $8.26B against a -$1.11B net loss implies $9B+ of non-cash/WC benefit, which is exactly the kind of "cash flow quality" the secondary signal flags as poor. If that WC tailwind reverses (supplier payment normalization, inventory build for new launches), 2026 FCF could easily go negative again. The insider data is uninformative — M-Exempt option exercises with no open-market context — so don't read signal there. The "Macro Headwinds" and "Below Sector Benchmarks" tags align with this skeptical read.

I dissent partially from the synthesis. "Reasonable Premium" undersells the asymmetry on the downside given Q1 2026, and "actually CHEAP" overstates conviction given the FCF quality issue and missing debt disclosure. But I also disagree with the Market Forces "Neutral / too competitive to thrive" framing — at 0.9x sales with $24B cash and demonstrated 18.9% gross margins at scale, you're being paid to take the survival bet. The right frame: this is a binary-ish wager on whether Q1 2026 was a seasonal/competitive air-pocket or a trend break. If Q2 2026 reverts to $18-20B revenue with mid-single-digit operating losses, the stock is worth $22-25 (1.2-1.4x sales, in line with the 2025 trajectory). If Q2 confirms deceleration with another double-digit-negative margin, fair value is closer to $11-12 (book value support, ~1.4x P/B compressed back toward 1.0x). At $17.18, you're roughly at the midpoint of that range — not obviously mispriced, and the prior models' confidence in "cheap" is unwarranted until the Q1 print is contextualized. I'd want to see Q2 2026 deliveries (monthly data releases monthly — checkable) before committing capital. A starter position is defensible only for investors who can size for 40% downside; the cleaner trade is to wait one quarter for $5/share of clarity.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-01 20:25:06
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I disagree with Opus's "fairly valued" call — Q1 2026's results suggest more downside risk, with fair value closer to $12-13, questioning the durability of the turnaround narrative without clearer Q2 recovery.

XPeng Inc.'s recent financial data presents a complex narrative. Revenues have grown notably from $20.99B in 2021 to $74.63B in 2025, indicating a CAGR of 38.9%. However, profitability remains elusive, with net losses shrinking but still significant at -$1.11B in 2025. The balance sheet shows a robust cash position of $24.02B, suggesting liquidity is not an issue, yet the absence of total debt data complicates a comprehensive financial health assessment. Despite achieving a gross margin of 18.9% in 2025, the recent Q1 2026 results, with a revenue drop to $12.95B and a -13.7% margin, challenge the optimism of a turnaround. The negative operating margin and net margin highlight ongoing efficiency struggles, and the cash flow narrative is further weakened by poor cash flow quality signals.

Opus's analysis rightly highlights the stark sequential revenue drop in Q1 2026, which is concerning given the broader market pressures from competitors like BYD and Tesla. I agree with their skepticism regarding the supposed "Reasonable Premium" valuation, given the evident operational volatility. Opus argues that the Q1 2026 results disrupt the turnaround story, which aligns with my view that the market's current pricing reflects uncertainty rather than confidence in sustained profitability. Their point about working capital benefits inflating 2025's FCF is crucial, underscoring the fragility of XPeng's cash flow quality.

However, where I diverge is in the assessment of XPeng's valuation and future potential. Opus suggests that a binary outcome hinges on Q2 2026 results, putting potential fair value between $11 and $25 based on the coming quarter's performance. While I agree that the Q1 2026 results introduce significant risk, I'm less optimistic about a quick recovery to pre-2026 revenue levels given the intensifying competitive landscape and price pressures. The narrative of XPeng being the "Tesla of China" feels overextended without concrete evidence of a sustainable competitive advantage in their technology or market position.

A careful skeptic might argue that both Opus and I are overly focused on short-term data fluctuations and not sufficiently considering XPeng's long-term strategic initiatives or the broader EV market's growth potential in China. They might contend that the company's strategic investments in technology and production capacity could lead to a more resilient recovery, especially if geopolitical shifts favor local EV manufacturers over international competitors.

Community AI Feedback
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My Notes personal — only you see this
Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.352 · d1100787 · 2026-06-26 11:39:30